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					              Beyond the Current Economic Slowdown
               Positioning Missoula for Future Economic Prosperity
                                              By Dr. Larry Swanson
                                    O‟Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West
                                             The University of Montana

The U.S. economy officially entered a “recession” in December of 2007. It is now into the 16th month of this
slowdown. Montana and western Montana more specifically, had been enjoying a long and largely uninterrupted
economic surge, dating back to the early „90s. And the slowdown did not really hit western Montana until much later
than nationally.

Unemployment in Missoula County rose from historic lows two years ago – around 2.5% - to a high of 6.9% in
February. Missoula unemployment is usually highest in January and February and lowest in August and September.
The recently released March unemployment rate in Missoula is 6.6%. So, the precipitous rise in area unemployment
appears to now be ebbing. The unemployment rate should gradually decline into August and September.

Beyond this current slowdown, there is a need to take stock of where the area economy stands, from where it has
come, and to where it may be going. While local decision makers cannot remake their economy to their liking, they
can “position” themselves – their families, their businesses and organizations, their schools, their governments, etc.
– to take greater advantage of growth and change. While much of our economy is shaped by faraway often invisible
forces (markets, technologies, etc.), so much of what really matters in local economic improvement lies within the
reach of area decision makers.


                        Missoula Business Forum – Spring, 2009
Seasonally Adjusted                                              Monthly Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate, 2000 - 2009 (March '09), U.S. vs. MT

Unemployment since                     9.0%


2000: Montana vs. U.S.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 8.5%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       8.1%
                                       8.0%
Labor force and unemployment
data for the U.S. and individual                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       7.6%
states is compiled and reported                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        7.2%
monthly by the U.S. Bureau of          7.0%
Labor Statistics (BLS). These data
are reported in “raw” form or                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          6.4%
                                                                                                                                      6.3%
unadjusted for any seasonality in
                                       6.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                            6.0%
employment. They also are
adjusted to reflect and reduce                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5.6%
seasonality in these numbers.
                                       5.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                            5.0%
The chart shows monthly
unemployment in the U.S. and                                                          '01.6                                                                                                                                    4.4%
Montana, seasonally adjusted, from
January of 2000 through March of       4.0%
2009. The seasonally adjusted
unemployment rate rose to 8.5% in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       3.3%
March nationwide, up from 8.1% in                                                                                                                                                                                                 3.1%
                                       3.0%
February, 7.6% in January, and
7.2% in December. U.S.
unemployment has been rising
steadily since March of 2007,          2.0%
                                              '00.1
                                                      '00.5
                                                              '00.9
                                                                      '01.1
                                                                              '01.5
                                                                                      '01.9
                                                                                              '02.1
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                                                                                                              '02.9
                                                                                                                      '03.1
                                                                                                                              '03.5
                                                                                                                                      '03.9
                                                                                                                                              '04.1
                                                                                                                                                       '04.5
                                                                                                                                                               '04.9
                                                                                                                                                                       '05.1
                                                                                                                                                                               '05.5
                                                                                                                                                                                       '05.9
                                                                                                                                                                                               '06.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                       '06.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                               '06.9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       '07.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               '07.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       '07.9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               '08.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       '08.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               '08.9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       '09.1
coming off of its most recent
bottom at 4.4%.
                                                                                                                                                      U.S.             Montana

National unemployment rose to as
                                       In every month of every year since then, unemployment in Montana has been lower than
high as 6.3% in 2003 during the last
                                       nationally. Seasonally adjusted unemployment in Montana had fallen consistently for most of
recession, but now well-exceeds
                                       the period to a low of 3.1% in the spring of 2007. The more recent rise in unemployment in
that level. Seasonally adjusted
                                       Montana is following the national trend, but at significantly lower levels, rising to 5.0% in
unemployment in Montana had
                                       December when national unemployment was 7.2% and to 6.0% in February when national
almost always been higher than
                                       unemployment was 8.1%. Following this trend, seasonally adjusted unemployment in
nationally prior to June of 2001.
                                       Montana would be around 6.4% in March.
Seasonally                                         Monthly Unemployment, 2000 - 2009 (March '09), U.S. vs. MT (unadjusted data)

Unadjusted                          10.0%

Unemployment since
2000: Montana vs.                   9.0%                                                                                                  9.0%

U.S.                                                                                                                                      8.5%

                                    8.0%
The chart at the right shows
monthly unemployment rates for
both the U.S. and Montana                                                                                                                 7.1%
                                    7.0%
unadjusted for seasonality. The
                                                                                                                                          6.7%
seasonality in unemployment is
reflected in the annual increases
and decreases in monthly            6.0%    5.9%               5.9%
                                                                                                                                         6.0%
                                                    5.8%
unemployment rates.
                                                                           5.4%                                                           5.5%
                                                                                      5.4%
In March unemployment               5.0%                                                             4.9%                                 4.9%
nationally rose to 9.0%, up only                                                                                                  4.8%
slightly from 8.9% in February                                                                               4.4%                 4.4%   4.3%
and from 8.5% in January and                                                                                             4.1%
                                    4.0%
from 7.2% in December. It had
bottomed at 4.8% in April of 2008                          3.6%        3.5%       3.5%                                               3.5%
before beginning its rise.                                                                    3.2%
                                    3.0%
Unemployment in Montana rose
to an estimated 7.1% in March, up                                                                                       2.4% 2.4%

from 7.0% in February, and from    2.0%
6.7% in January, and from 5.5% in
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December. Unemployment in
Montana has steadily risen with                                 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unadjusted data)
rising unemployment nationally,                                                        U.S.     Montana
but remains almost two
percentage points lower than      Historically January is the month of highest unemployment in Montana and unemployment
nationally.                       ordinarily begins to fall in February and March. While this didn‟t happen, the monthly rise in
                                  unemployment has slowed and will very likely fall below the March high in April.
Labor Force &                        540,000
                                                                   Monthly Labor Force and Employment in Montana

Employment                           520,000
                                                                                                                                 514,843

Growth in                            500,000                                                                                     4 9 6 ,7 2 0

                                     480,000
Montana since the                    460,000
                                                                                            469,147

Early „90s                           440,000
                                                                                                  4 2 9 ,9 16
                                     420,000   418,341
As the economy of Montana
has grown, the labor force has       400,000
steadily expanded to                 380,000
                                                 3 7 1,19 1
accommodate this growth.
                                     360,000

Data are seasonally unadjusted       340,000
and the waves in the trends
                                       '9 .1
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reflect seasonality in
                                                                          Source: BLS & MT Dept. of Labor & Industry
employment over the course of
a given year over time. The                                                         Labor Force           Employment
gap between the labor force
and employment is                                             Monthly Unemployment Rate in Montana since the Early '90s
unemployment. The lower              9.0%
chart shows unemployment
rates in Montana over the            8.0%             8.0%
                                               7.6%
course of this period of
                                     7.0%
economic expansion.
                                                                                             6.4%
Unemployment rates once              6.0%
swung between 5 and 8%, more
recently fell to lows of just over                5.2%
                                     5.0%
2%. This reflects Montana‟s                                                                         4.4%                  4.5%
tightening labor market. The         4.0%
                                                                                                                                     3.5%
current economic slowdown
                                     3.0%
has altered this trend a bit, but
a tight labor market will return                                                                                             2.2% 2.4%
                                     2.0%
when the economy recovers.
                                     '9 .1
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Missoula County                                        Monthly Unemployment Rate in Missoula County, 1990-2008 (March '09)
Unemployment Rate                       12.0%

Over Time
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
compiles monthly unemployment                     10.2%
                                        10.0%
rates for all U.S. counties and these
are unadjusted for seasonality.

The unemployment rate in Missoula
rose to 6.9% in February, 2009, up      8.0%
from 6.6% in January, and from
                                                            7.5%
5.5% in December. This is the
highest level of unemployment in                                                                                                     6.9%
Missoula since 1993 when
unemployment rose to 7.5%. The          6.0%
highest rate more recently had been                                            5.6%                                                  5.5%
in 2002 when unemployment hit                              5.2%                                        5.2%
5.2%. County unemployment                                                                                        4.8%
reached as high as 10.2% in 1991.               4.6%
So the area economy is not totally      4.0%                                                                                  4.0%
unfamiliar with high levels of
                                                                              3.4%                                                   3.5%
unemployment.
                                                                                                      3.1%      3.1%

The yearly high for unemployment
                                                                                                                             2.2%
in Missoula County ordinarily           2.0%
occurs in January or February and
the yearly lows ordinarily occur in
August and September. The
recently released unemployment
rate for March indicates the            0.0%
precipitous rise in Missoula‟s
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unemployment has halted, with the
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rate falling back slightly to 6.6%.
Missoula County                                         Monthly Labor Force & Em ploym ent in Missoula County, 1990-2008 (Febr.. 09)

                                    65,000
Labor Force &
Employment Trends,                  60,000                                                                                                        60,121
                                                                                                                                                  58,562
1990 – 2008                         55,000                                                            55,568
                                                                                                      52,908
The upper chart shows monthly
                                    50,000
counts as reported by the U.S.                                              49,183
Bureau of Labor Statistics of the                                           47,284
total number of persons in the      45,000
                                             44,252
labor force and the number of                41,935
these who are employed since        40,000
1990. The “gap” between the
labor force and employment is       35,000
the number of persons
unemployed in any given month.
                                    30,000
The waves in these data show
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                                          1
seasonality each year in
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employment.
                                                                                     Labor Force          Employment

The Missoula economy has
grown steadily over this period,                                Unemployment in Missoula County, 1990-2008 (Febr. 09)
but is slowing more recently, and   5,000
unemployment is rising, as          4,500       4,489
shown in the lower chart. The
                                    4,000
number of unemployed rose to                                                                                                                           3,831
3,831 in February, 2009, up from    3,500
3,703 in January, and up from                                                                                                                          3,178
                                    3,000                                                                                                              2,882
3,178 the month previously.                                                                2,823                2,850
                                    2,500                                                                                         2,541
                                                                                                                                               2,342
Typically, Missoula County          2,000    1,992                                                                                                     2,037
                                                                                             1,774                  1,714
experiences its highest levels of   1,500                                                                                              1,528
                                                                                                                                                   1,398
yearly unemployment in January
and February, and lowest levels     1,000

in August and September.             500
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Ravalli County                                      Monthly Unemployment Rate in Ravalli County, 1990-2008 (March 09)
Unemployment Rate                 15.0%

Over Time
The U.S. Bureau of Labor          13.0%
                                            13.2%
Statistics compiles monthly
unemployment rates for all U.S.
counties and these are
unadjusted for seasonality.       11.0%

The unemployment rate in
                                                                                9.8%                                                     9.8%
Ravalli County rose to 9.8% in
February, 2009, up from less      9.0%
than 9.5% in January and up
from a yearly low of 4.3% last                                                                                                           8.3%
                                                               8.0%
Summer. The February                                                                                            7.5%
unemployment rate was last                                                                           7.3%
                                  7.0%                                                                                  6.9%
exceeded in Ravalli County in
1998 when unemployment
                                                                                                                                       6.0%
reached 9.8%. Unemployment in                                                                                                   5.7%
                                          5.4%
the county rose to as high as     5.0%                                        4.9%
13% in both 1991 and 1992, so
                                                            4.4%                                                                         4.3%
Ravalli County has experienced
high levels of unemployment in                                                                     3.8%             3.8%
only the recent past.
                                  3.0%                                                                                         2.9% 3.0%

January and February are
months when seasonal
unemployment are ordinarily
                                  1.0%
highest. The recent released
                                   '9 .1
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                                       1
estimate in March for




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                                   '9




unemployment in Ravalli is
9.2%, indicating unemployment
is beginning to fall.
Flathead County                                        Unemployment Rates in Flathead County Over Time (March 09)
                                      15.0%
Unemployment Rate
Over Time
                                      13.0%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor                                                                                                       12.7%
Statistics compiles monthly
unemployment rates for all U.S.
counties and these are unadjusted                                                                                              11.3%
                                      11.0%
                                              10.8%
for seasonality.
                                                                                   10.1%
If you look at the pattern of
unemployment in Flathead County       9.0%
throughout the „90s, you can see                                                                                               8.7%
than it is very seasonal, rising to
yearly highs often times as high as
                                                                                                          7.3%
10% and yearly lows of 5%. In         7.0%
more recent years, the area labor
market tightened and
                                                5.8%                                  5.6%
unemployment sunk to historic
lows of 2.5% as recently as 2007.     5.0%                                                                              5.0%


However, more recently, the area                                                                                               3.7%
                                                                                                                 3.6%
economy is slowing, largely tied to
the national economic slowdown        3.0%

and slowdown in housing and                                                                                                2.5%

construction. Unemployment rose
to 12.7% in March, up from 11.8%
                                      1.0%
in February, and 8.7% in January.
                                       '9 .1
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                                       '0 .7
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                                       '0 .7
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                                       '0 .7
                                       '0 .1
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                                           1
                                         9.
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                                       '9




While rising, high unemployment
                                                                       Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
rates is something that Flathead
County has experienced in only
the recent past, rising to over 10%
several times in the ‟90s.
States by                                             States by Unemployment Rate, August, 2008 (unadjusted data)

Unemployment                       SoDakota
                                   NoDakota
                                                                            3.1%
                                                                              3.2%
                                  Nebraska
Rate in August,                    Wyom ing
                                                                              3.3%
                                                                               3.3%
                                    Montana                                           3.8%
2008                              Oklahom a
                                           Utah                                       3.8%
                                   WestVirg
                                  New Ham p
The nation-wide recession                Idaho                                               4.2%
started in December, 2007.                Iow a
                                   Verm ont
However, the slowdown didn‟t           Haw aii
affect many states until more      Maryland
                                  Arkansas
recently. The chart shows            Virginia
unemployment rates of               New Mex                                                         4.7%
                                     Kansas
individual states in August,            Maine
                                 Wisconsin
2008.                              Delaw are
                                  Louisiana
                                   Massach
The three northern Plains               Texas
states of South Dakota, North      Colorado                                                                5.2%
                                    Alabam a
Dakota, and Nebraska, shown        New York
in yellow, had the lowest       Washington                                                                        5.7%
                                New Jersey
unemployment rates of any        Minnesota
                                    Pennsyl
states. Wyoming in the Rocky         Arizona                                                                       5.8%
Mountain West, shown in                Alaska
                                            U.S.                                                                     6.1%
purple, was 4th lowest,              Oregon
followed by Montana (shown in         Indiana
                                     Georgia
red). Utah and Idaho, also          Connect
Rocky Mountain states, also        Kentucky
                                   Missouri
had very low rates.             Tennessee
                                 NoCarolina
                                       Florida                                                                               6.9%
The highest unemployment              Nevada                                                                                  6.9%
                                   DistofCol
was in Rhode Island and                    Ohio
Michigan, both with                    Illinois
                                  California                                                                                         7.7%
unemployment rates exceeding    Mississippi
8%.                             SouthCarol
                                   Michigan                                                                                                 8.4%
                                    RhIsland

                                               0.0%    1.0%     2.0%     3.0%         4.0%          5.0%          6.0%      7.0%     8.0%     9.0%
Population Growth by                                              Total Population Growth for U.S. States, 1990 to 2007

State, 1990 – 2007                               Nevada
                                                Arizona                                                    72%
                                                                                                                                 110%

                                                      Utah                                     53%
                                                    Idaho                                   48%
Population growth in the U.S. has             Colorado                                     47%
been greatest in several western                Georgia
                                                   Texas
states, including states in the Rocky             Florida
Mountain West. Between 1990 and             NoCarolina
                                             Washngtn                             32%
2007, Nevada grew at a faster pace              Oregon
than any other state – up by 110%.            New Mex
                                              Delaw are
Arizona was 2nd at 72% growth.              SoCarolina
                                           Tennessee
                                                Virginia
The next three fastest growing states        California
are in the Rocky Mountain West,                         US                  21%
including Utah at 53%, Idaho at 48%,         Arkansas
                                               Montana                   20%
and Colorado at 47%. The other two          Minnesota
Rocky Mountain West states grew at          New Ham p
                                              Maryland
considerably slower rates – Montana           Wyom ing                15%
at 20% growth and Wyoming at 15%.            Oklahom a
                                              Kentucky
                                              Missouri
Growth during this period nationwide           Alabam a
                                             So Dakota
was 21%.                                    Wisconsin
                                                 Indiana
                                           Mississippi
                                                  Illinois
                                             Nebraska
                                                      New
                                                Kansas
                                              Verm ont
                                              Michigan
                                                     Iow a
                                              Massach
                                             New York
                                                   Maine
                                               Connect
                                                      Ohio
                                            Rho Island
                                              Pennsylv
                                             Louisiana
                                             W Virginia
                                             No Dakota
                                           Dist Colum

                                        -20%                 0%        20%          40%          60%          80%         100%      120%
The North American
Rocky Mountain West
The Rocky Mountains are the “spine of
North America,” and extend from western
Alberta and eastern British Columbia in
Canada south through western Montana
and Idaho and further south into portions
of western Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, and
New Mexico. The Rocky Mountains
themselves define the region.

The American Rockies are largely
contained within the five states of
Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and
Montana. The Census Bureau includes
New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada in its
“Mountain Region” along with these five
states. However, Arizona and New Mexico,
while having mountains, are much
different places culturally, racially,
climactically, demographically, and
economically. Most people residing in
Nevada live next to the California border
(Las Vegas and Reno) and it is much
different that the Rockies.
                                                               Yearly Population Growth Among Rocky Mountain West States
Growth Among Rocky                      5.0%

Mountain West States                    4.0%

While the five Rocky Mountain           3.0%
West states differ considerably in
                                                                                                                                                         Colorado
overall populations, they are           2.0%
tending to follow each other                                                                                                                             Utah
closely in year-to-year growth          1.0%
measured in percentage terms.                                                                                                                            Idaho
The top chart shows annual              0.0%
                                                                                                                                                         Montana
change in population for each of




                                             1


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                                                                                                                    '0


                                                                                                                           '0


                                                                                                                                   '0


                                                                                                                                           '0
the five states since the early „80s.   -1.0%                                                                                                            Wyoming
The lower chart then merges these
five states into one showing            -2.0%
annual change in the 5-state
Rockies versus annual change in         -3.0%
California.
                                        -4.0%
Economic and population growth
trends in California have tended to                               Yearly Population Change in the Rockies vs. California
heavily shape trends in the Interior    3.5%
West. When the California                                                                 '93
economy struggles, as it did in the     3.0%
late „80s and early „90s, population                                        '89
growth in that state has slowed         2.5%
                                                   '82
while growth among Rocky                                                                                                                   '06
                                        2.0%
Mountain states has risen. When                                                                                                                        5-State
the California economy recovered                                                                                                                       Rockies
                                        1.5%
in the mid-„90s, population growth                                                                                                                     California
increased in California and                                                                                                      '03
                                        1.0%
decreased in the Rocky Mountain
West. This pattern seems to be                                                                  '94
                                        0.5%
continuing.                                                                                                                                      '07
                                        0.0%
                                             1


                                                   3


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                                                                  7


                                                                        9

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                                                                                                            '9

                                                                                                                   '0


                                                                                                                          '0

                                                                                                                                 '0


                                                                                                                                         '0
                                        -0.5%
Major Population Centers or Region
“Cores” and Closely-Linked Counties
in the West
City Regions of the                                         Rocky Mountain West City Regions by Population Over Time

Rocky Mountain West                              Denver                                                                                    2,727,984

                                           Salt Lake City                                                                      2,311,185
Most of the population of the                                                                864,392
                                      Co Sprngs-Pueblo
Rocky Mountain West region
                                                                                       735,580
resides in or nearby one of its                Spokane
major cities. The chart shows the                  Boise                             661,934
populations of these major city                                                    560,666
                                             Fort Collins
regions in 1990, 2000, and 2007.
                                                                         271,597
The 2007 populations in the chart        Grand Junction
are color-coded to reflect class                                     251,161
                                             Farm ington
sizes of these city regions, using            Rapid City
                                                                    202,136
the READ or Regional Economies                                     192,357
                                                 Billings
Assessment Database county
                                                                   192,264
classification system. Those in                Missoula
maroon are the very largest cities,           St. George           188,369
those in orange are a level down                                                                                                                        '07
                                              Idaho Falls          180,586
from these in size and so forth.                                                                                                                        '00
                                                                   166,778
                                      Lew iston-Pullm an
                                                                   160,109                                                                              '90
The Denver and Salt Lake City                  Pocatello
regions are the two largest                                       151,395
                                              Tw in Falls
concentrations of population by
                                                                  146,064
far. Next are Colorado Springs-       Cheyenne-Laram ie
Pueblo, Spokane, Boise, and Fort                Flagstaff         127,450

Collins. The remaining ones are                Bozem an          110,884
smaller “3rd Tier” cities (blue),                                105,729
                                                Kalispell
larger regional centers (green),
                                                                 101,043
and small regional centers                    Great Falls
(yellow).                                        Casper          92,760

                                                                77,609
                                                  Helena
Montana‟s city regions are all
                                                                66,498
modest in size and therefore often           Scottsbluff
not thought of as “real cities.”        Butte-Silver Bow
                                                                57,426
However, small and medium size                                  39,305
                                           Rock Springs
cities are now seeing growth and
change similar to larger cities.                            0             500,000        1,000,000     1,500,000   2,000,000   2,500,000    3,000,000
                                                                  RMW City Region Percent Population Growth, 1990-2007
Rocky Mountain West                           St. George                                                                                 138%

City Regions by                                    Boise                                                            75%
                                             Fort Collins                                                     63%
Population Growth                              Bozem an                                                 55%
                                         Grand Junction                                                54%
The chart shows percentage
change in region-wide population           Salt Lake City                                             51%

for each of the region‟s city                     Denver                                        44%
regions since 1990. St. George,       Co Sprngs-Pueblo                                      41%
Utah, is seeing the fastest growth,           Idaho Falls                                  38%
with population rising by 138%
                                               Missoula                                    38%
between 1990 and 2007. St.
                                                Kalispell                                 37%
George is classified as a “large
regional trade center” and colored           Farm ington                                  37%
in green.                                      Spokane                                    35%
                                                Flagstaff                            31%
Boise and Fort Collins, both 2nd                  Helena                            28%
Tier regional centers shown in
                                              Tw in Falls                      23%
orange, are 2nd and 3rd in growth,
increasing by 75% and 63%                         Billings                    19%

respectively. Bozeman and Grand                   Casper                     18%
Junction are next fastest in                   Pocatello                     17%
growth. Bozeman is a “small                   Rapid City                 15%
regional center.” Grand Junction
                                      Lew iston-Pullm an               12%
is a larger regional center.
                                      Cheyenne-Laram ie                10%

Missoula is classified as a large             Great Falls         3%
regional center (green) and its            Rock Springs       1%
growth of 38% over this period          Butte-Silver -3%
                                                     Bow
rank it 10th among the 26 city                    -4%
                                             Scottsbluff
regions in the Rockies.
                                           -20%              0%          20%              40%           60%         80%   100%   120%   140%
Rocky Mountain West                                               City Region Real Income Growth, 1990-2006

City Regions by                                St. George                                                                               205%

Personal Income                                 Bozem an                                                              137%
                                                    Boise                                                           130%
Growth                                    Grand Junction                                                     113%
                                              Farm ington                                                    110%
The chart shows percentage
                                              Fort Collins                                               106%
change in region-wide personal
income for each of the region‟s                   Denver                                                 105%
city regions since 1990. St.                Salt Lake City                                               105%
George, Utah, which had the                      Flagstaff                                             97%
fastest population growth, also s                Kalispell                                        93%
seeing the fastest personal income
                                       Co Sprngs-Pueblo                                          90%
growth, with income rising by
205% between 1990 and 2006.                     Missoula                                         86%
Bozeman has the 2nd fastest                        Helena                                  75%
growth in income. Both St. George               Spokane                               68%
and Bozeman are relatively small
                                               Idaho Falls                            68%
regional trade centers, but they
                                                  Casper                              67%
illustrate how income growth is
now extending beyond the                          Billings                           66%
region‟s largest cities and into            Rock Springs                             63%
smaller ones.                          Cheyenne-Laram ie                            60%
                                               Rapid City                           60%
Personal income growth by 86% in
the Missoula city region during                Tw in Falls                     50%

this period, ranking it 12th fastest            Pocatello                     44%
among all city regions in the            Butte-Silver Bow                 42%
Rockies.                               Lew iston-Pullm an                 40%
                                               Great Falls              32%
                                              Scottsbluff         17%

                                                             0%   25%         50%     75%         100%        125%     150%   175%   200%   225%
                                                                              Population Growth, 1990 to 2000
The Rocky Mountain West is one                                 Southw est                                       34%

of the U.S.’s fastest growing                              Rocky MT West                                 27%
                                                         Pacific Northw est                        21%
regions                                                     So. Plains/Gulf                      18%
                                                         California/Nevada                   16%
During the last decade, the Rocky Mountain West
                                                           Northern Plains             11%
emerged one of the fastest-growing regions in the U.S.
with one of the fastest growing regional economies.         Central Plains           8%
The Rockies also had one of the highest percentage                 NATION                  13%
increases in per capita income; up 23% in inflation-                          0%    10%      20%         30%        40%      50%       60%
adjusted dollars.

                                                                     Total Personal Income Growth, 1990 to 2000
                                                           Rocky MT West                                                              56%
                                                                Southw est                                                         52%
                                                         Pacific Northw est                                                44%
                                                            So. Plains/Gulf                                               43%
                                                           Northern Plains                                          37%
                                                         California/Nevada                                  31%
                                                            Central Plains                               28%
                                                                    NATION                                   32%

                                                                          0%        10%      20%         30%        40%      50%       60%


                                                                      Total Employment Growth, 1990 to 2000
                                                                Southw est                                                 42%
                                                           Rocky MT West                                                  42%
                                                            So. Plains/Gulf                                   29%
                                                         Pacific Northw est                              26%
                                                           Northern Plains                              24%
                                                             Central Plains                       18%
                                                         California/Nevada                        18%
                                                                    NATION                         20%

                                                                              0%     10%         20%      30%        40%         50%    60%
                                                                                       Employment Change in the Rocky Mountain West                               Services
Employment Change in the                                2,000,000                                                                                                 Retail Trade
Fast-growing Rockies and in                             1,800,000                                                                                                 F.I.R.E.
Montana                                                 1,600,000                                                                                                 Manufacturing
                                                        1,400,000                                                                                                 Local Govt.
In the last decade when the economy of the Rocky        1,200,000                                                                                                 Construction
Mountain West became one of the fastest-growing
                                                        1,000,000                                                                                                 T.P.U.
regional economies in the nation, employment
growth in the broad services sector accounted for         800,000                                                                                                 Wholesale Tr.
37 percent of all new jobs in the region. There are       600,000                                                                                                 State
13 major sectors of the economy and two of these,                                                                                                                 Fed Civil/Military
                                                          400,000
services and retail trade, accounted for nearly half
                                                          200,000                                                                                                 Farm
of all employment. The sector with the third
highest employment is Finance, Insurance, and                      0                                                                                              Ag Services
Real Estate, or the F.I.R.E. sector, followed by                       1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000                                     Mining
manufacturing, construction, and local government
(which includes public education).
                                                                                             Sector Employment Change in Montana
                                                       200,000
There is a common perception in Montana that the                                                                                                                  Services
state‟s economy is deteriorating, with many citing     180,000
                                                                                                                                                                  Retail Trade
the growth in service and retail trade jobs and the
                                                       160,000                                                                                                    F.I.R.E.
loss of other “good” jobs in the economy. In
actuality, the changing mix of jobs in Montana         140,000                                                                                                    Manufacturing
closely parallels the changing mix of jobs in the                                                                                                                 Local Govt.
                                                       120,000
larger Rocky Mountain West region; which has
                                                                                                                                                                  Construction
seen significant gains in economic performance in      100,000
recent years. In the last decade while service jobs                                                                                                               T.P.U.
                                                        80,000
grew by 37 percent in the fast-growing Rockies,                                                                                                                   Wholesale Tr.
they grew by 42 percent in Montana. And, while          60,000
                                                                                                                                                                  State
services and retail trade now account for nearly        40,000                                                                                                    Fed Civil/Military
half of all jobs in the Rockies, they accounted for
49 percent of jobs in Montana in 2000.                  20,000                                                                                                    Farm

                                                            0                                                                                                     Ag Services
                                                                 19 8 0   19 8 2   19 8 4   19 8 6   19 8 8   19 9 0   19 9 2   19 9 4   19 9 6   19 9 8   2000
                                                                                                                                                                  Mining
Recent Economic                                                                                 Trends in Major Sectors of the MT Economy

Restructuring in Montana                                             $3,000



Ways in which the Montana economy
is changing and restructuring itself                                                                                                                $2,657
can be seen by grouping some of the                                                                                                                 $2,555
                                                                     $2,500
major sectors of the economy into                                                                                                                   $2,424
larger segments.
                                                                                                                                                    $2,298

In the chart at right, Professional and                                                                                                                      Fed & State
                                                                                                                                                             Govt.
technical services, Administrative
                                                                     $2,000                                                                                  Wholsl & Retl Tr
services, Management services, and
Information services are joined in a


                                          Millions of 2005 dollars
                                                                                                                                                    $1,813   Health care
larger segment called “Professional
and business services.” Primary                                                                                                                              Constr & Real
sectors (Manufacturing, Utilities,                                                                                                                           Est
                                                                     $1,500
Transportation) are joined as are                                                                                                                            Mfg.,Transp,Util.
Wholesale and Retail trade.
Construction and Real estate are                                                                                                                             Prof. & Business
merged, as are State and Federal                                                                                                                             serv
government. Ag-related sectors are                                                                                                                           Local Govt
                                                                     $1,000
merged and Arts, entertainment, and                                                                                                                 $976
recreation services are merged with                                                                                                                          Arts,Ent,Accom,
                                                                                                                                                             Food
Accommodation and Food services.                                                                                                                    $732
                                                                                                                                                             Fin & Insur

The segment of the economy with the
                                                                      $500                                                                                   Mining
highest labor earnings is Federal and
State government. This includes                                                                                                                     $389
                                                                                                                                                             Net farm &
earnings by all persons employed                                                                                                                             ag,for serv
somewhere in federal and state
government. Wholesale and retail
trade is 2nd, followed by Health care,                                  $0
Construction and real estate, Primary                                         '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06

industries, and Professional and                                                          Source: Sw anson, using Com m erce Dept. data
business services.
Growth among Major                                       Change in Labor Earnings by Major Economic Segment in MT, 1998-2006

Segments of the Montana
Economy, 1998 – 2006                           Constr & Real Est                                                                        $1,114



The chart focuses on growth in labor       Prof. & Business serv                                                        $777
earnings only in this recent period from
1998 to 2006, with growth measured in
inflation-adjusted labor earnings.                   Health care                                                       $764


The most striking change occurring in
recent years in the Montana economy             Fed & State Govt.                                                     $741
has been the high growth in
Construction and Real Estate. This
                                                 Wholsl & Retl Tr                                      $474
major segment of the economy is highly
growth dependent and has been
spurred by population growth in the
                                                          Mining                            $339
state and subsequent expansion in
other segments of the economy, like
services and trade.                                   Local Govt                          $312

Professional and Business services -
ranging from accounting, engineering,           Mfg.,Transp,Util.                         $308
management, administrative, legal, and
computing services of many types –
has experienced the 2nd highest                       Fin & Insur                        $285
growth among major segments, closely
followed by growth in Health care and
Federal and State government. Trade        Arts,Ent,Accom , Food                  $183

sectors are growing and rank 5th
among these 11 major segments of the
                                           Net farm & ag,for serv        -$176
economy. Mining also has seen some
increase in recent years. Ag-related
sectors are declining.                           -$200              $0           $200           $400          $600     $800    $1,000     $1,200
                                                                                           Millions of 2005 Dollars
Growth in Montana‟s                                                         Personal Incom e & Total Labor Earnings vs. All Natural Resource Industry Labor Earnings
Overall Economy vs.                                              $30,000
                                                                                                                                                                                           $28,390
Growth in Its Natural                                                                                                                                                                 $27,313
                                                                 $25,000
Resource Industries                                                                                                                                $23,117




                                      Millions of 2005 Dollars
The chart shows annual levels                                    $20,000                                                                                                                   $20,305
                                                                                                                    $19,598                                                           $19,760
of total personal income and                                                                                                                                                                         Personal
                                                                                 $17,135                                                                                                             Income
total labor earnings in Montana                                                                                                                    $15,980
                                                                 $15,000
since the early „90s in relation to                                                                                 $13,752
labor earnings generated in all                                                                                                                                                                      Total Lab
                                                                                 $11,760                                                                                                             Earnings
of Montana‟s natural resource
                                                                 $10,000
sectors – oil and gas, coal
mining, other mineral mining,                                                                                                                                                                        All Natural
wood products, farming and                                                                                                                                                                           Resource
                                                                  $5,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Industries L.I.
ranching (net farm income), etc.
                                                                                 $1,633                             $1,450                         $1,590                             $1,921
The overall economy has grown                                        $0
steadily through this entire                                               '90    '91     '92 '93      '94    '95     '96 '97    '98    '99 '00     '01     '02    '03 '04      '05    '06
period, while natural resource                                                                          Source: BEA, U.S. Com m erce Dept. data
industries shrank a bit in the
„90s before increasing modestly                                              Yearly Change in Income and Labor Earnings vs. Natural Resource Ind. Labor Earnings
in more recent years, largely                                    $1,500
because of increased oil and
gas activity.                                                    $1,200                                                                                                                              Personal
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Income
                                      Millions of 2005 Dollars




The lower chart shows yearly                                      $900
changes in total personal
income, all labor earnings, and                                   $600                                                                                                                               Total Lab
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Earnings
all labor earnings in natural
resource industries. The overall                                  $300
economy grew in many years
                                                                    $0                                                                                                                               All Nat. Res.
even as declines occurred in                                                                                                                                                                         Industries L.I.
                                                                           '91    '92      '93   '94    '95     '96     '97     '98    '99   '00     '01     '02    '03   '04     '05        '06
natural resource sectors.
                                                                 -$300
Natural resource sectors could
not have driven much of the
                                                                 -$600
growth.
Reduced Economic
                                                 Natural Resource Industry Labor Earnings as Shares of Total Personal Income &
Dependency on                                                               Labor Income in Montana
Natural Resources                    20%

Industries by the
Montana Economy
Because Montana‟s economy                                       15.2%
has grown so much over the last      15%
                                           13.9%
two decades, even as many of
its natural resource industries
either declined or saw little or
only modest growth, the                                        11.0%
economic dependency on these                                                                          10.4%
natural resource industries has                                                                                                                9.7%          Share of
                                     10% 9.5%                                                                                                                Personal
decreased.                                                                                                                                                   Income
                                                                                                                                                      8.4%
                                                                                                                           8.1%
The chart shows labor earnings                                                                        7.3%
                                                                                                                                              7.0%
by all natural resource sectors
in Montana and the labor                                                                                                                             6.0%
                                                                                                                          5.6%
earnings generated by these                                                                                                                                  Share of
sectors as percents of all            5%                                                                                                                     Labor
personal income and all labor                                                                                                                                Earnings
earnings for each year since
1990. In 1993 natural resource
industries accounted for over
15% of all employment earnings.
But, in 2006 this had declined to     0%
8.4%.                                      '90     '91   '92     '93    '94   '95   '96   '97   '98    '99    '00   '01    '02    '03   '04    '05    '06


As a share of total personal
income, natural resource labor      While Montana's natural resource sectors continue to be important contributors to the state‟s
earnings have decline from 11%      overall economy, they are becoming smaller shares of the economy through the state‟s recent
of all income in 1993 to 6% in      economic expansion and continuing restructuring.
2006.
                    A More “Footloose” Economy –
                        both People and Jobs.
Advances in information technology and communications and communications
infrastructure, emergence of a services-based economy, steady aging of the U.S.
population, and rapid increases in non-labor and more mobile sources of income ..
have re-designed the modern workplace, re-organized the geography of economic
activity, and reshuffled patterns of migration and population growth.

In short, today‟s economy is much more “footloose” than yesterday‟s. Both people
and jobs are moving around more freely and new patterns of migration are emerging.
The “old” economy encouraged urbanization and sub-urbanization. The “new”
economy increasingly encourages growth to occur mostly in places where people want
to live. In the old economy, people followed jobs. In this newly emerging economy,
jobs increasingly follow people.


Many mid-size cities and outlying non-metro areas – particularly ones with attractive
communities in areas with high quality environmental amenities – have become very
fast growing.


- Larry Swanson, O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West, U. of MT
Urban-to-Rural                24,000
                                   22,699
                                                                      Population Growth, Urban-to-Rural in Montana, 1996-2006


Distribution of
Population                    20,000


Growth in                     16,000

Montana                                 13,169
                                          12,121
                                            11,491
                              12,000
The upper chart shows the
distribution of recent
population growth in           8,000                   6,666
Montana by county from                        4,956
urban-to-rural during the                                3,368
                               4,000
ten-year period from 1996
                                                              1,471
to 2006. The lower chart                                                                                         294
then shows growth among            0
county groupings – the 7




                                 C eavde d




                                    M Fa vr
                                      G eb e
                                W su sn
                                G Gineorn




                                        er H d
                                 Je ava w
                               Lel loiws e ain




                                   B r ater




                                      ea a y
                                  w sou d
                                SiCa & C e




                                   R s lt
                                      r ut hd
                                      ea B n
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                               Po Pr arted




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                                     i s to la




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                                        ar um
                                          n ite




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                                      de n l
                              Swro Ca isos




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                                             us
                                   Sa wa n




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                                      C i d ill
                                        s we r
                                                 -531




                                        V llipr
                                   wWi iri r
                                Ju L els ll


                                    he e re




                                    G leole
                                   Po atton
                                   M nd t e
                                      ill soe




                                     os dg
                                 B n lan




                                  Sh lan
                                  M P Vl
                                  ol ra ra
                                              n




                                       aw e
                                       ig s
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                                              u
                                   us o e




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                                          i e
                                         a n
                                          a l
                                 Tr th ol




                                       ic o
                                        cCllo
                              Ye M lat llat




                                        C fie




                                           ai
                                           B
                                       sh




regional center counties,


                                          r




                                         b
                                         L




                                         u
                                   F a




                                        T




                                        o
                                      G




                                                     -2,332
the 27 counties nearby and    -4,000
closely-linked to these                                                    Source: Sw anson, using Census Bureau July estim ates
regional centers, and the
other 22 more rural and                                               Total Population Change in MT, Urban-to-Rural, 1996-2006
isolated counties.            70,000
                                                      61,573                                                                         60,541
                              60,000
The population of Montana
grew by 60,540 people         50,000
during this period, but the   40,000
seven regional center
counties by themselves        30,000
grew by 61,573. Counties      20,000
nearby these centers grew                                                            10,723
                              10,000
as a group by 10,723, while
the isolated counties lost         0
11,755 in population.                       Reg. Center Cos. (7)            Closely-linked Cos. (27)     Iso. Rural Cos. (22)      State-w ide
                              -10,000
                                                                                                               -11,755
                              -20,000
   centers.
                                                                                                           shows the




   Montana‟s


   more urban
                                                                                                           in 2008 with




   population is
                                                                                                           population of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Montana




                                                                                                           in Montana by
                                                                                                           characteristics.
                                                                                                           The upper chart




   counties and its
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Population




   growth is further
                                                                                                           counties arrayed




   nearby the urban
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Distribution




   population in and
                                                                                                           at the far left. The

                                                                                                           mainly in the east,




   concentrating this
                                                                                                           lower chart shows


                                                                                                           county since 2000.



   concentrated in its
                                                                                                           population change
                                                                                                           from left-to-right in

                                                                                                           to their urban-rural

                                                                                                           The seven regional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              by County in



                                                                                                           Montana by county




                                                                                                           center counties are
                                                                                                           the chart according




                                                                                                           are at the right. The
                                                                                                           more rural counties,
  Ye                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Ye
    l lo Ga                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    l lo
         w lla                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      w




         -1,000
                       0
                                                        1,000
                                                                        2,000
                                                                                                   3,000
                                                                                                                          4,000
                                                                                                                                                                  5,000
                                                                                                                                                                                         6,000
            s t                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   M st
Le Fla ton in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        is on
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          25,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                50,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             75,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      100,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               125,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Y e llo




   w Mis the e                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        G oue
    is s a




                                                                                                                                                                          G a lla t in
        & ou d                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Le Flaalla la
            C                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 w Ca th tin
    Si Cas la la                                                                                                                                                                                                                               is s e
       lv c rk




                                                                                                                                              Y e llo ws t o ne
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         150,000 ws t o ne




                                                                                                                              F la t he a d
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                M is s o ula




           er ad                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Si & ca ad
               B e                                                                                                                                                                                                                                lv Cl de
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      G a lla t in




                                                                                                           M is s o ula
     Je R ow                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          er ar
          ff av                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Bk
            er al                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       R ow
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          av




                                                                                Le wis & C la rk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             C a s c a de




               so li
              La n                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Li Laklli
                 k




                                                          R a v a lli
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         nc e
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Le wis & C la rk




           L P e
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   B ol
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            R a v a lli




        M incar k
           a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   La k e




                                     J e f f e rs o n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Je ig Parn
   B Sti disol n
     ro llw o                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ff H k
        ad a n                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Saers orn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        n o
        B water                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       C d n
 Sw S ig ter                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      R ar ers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              B o b
     ee an Ho                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  e
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              D aveseb on
         t de rn                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ee r u
   B RoGr a rs                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      r h d
    ea s s                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       St Lo e ad
        v e s                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        i d
  M Wh er hbud                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mllwa ge
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ad t
    us ea e
                 a                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            e
G De sel tland                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Poiso r
  ol er s h d
    de L e                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 wn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   PoTe ell
        n od ll
            Va g                                                                                                                                                                                                                              B C ndton
                   e                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ro h e
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             M a o ra
             T lle                                                                                                                                                                                                                             us d t e
           C etoy                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  s w a
        C ar n                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sw els a teu
      Tr ho bon                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ee Mi he r
          e t                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       t n ll
       M as eau                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Ju Gr era
          ea ur
           G gh e                                                                                                                                                                                                                                di Gr assl
             ra e                                                                                                                                                                                                                              W th an
           P nr                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         B i
        Po ow ite                                                                                                                                                                                                                          G hea aste
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ol M tl in
  Ju nd el                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     de ea an
      di Mi er l                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   n g d
         th ne a                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Tr Vahe
        R Bara l                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ea ller
           ic s                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          su y
              hl in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          re
             Faand                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    G H
           C llo                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         la il
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Fe ci l
             us n                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             e
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        H ill




                te                                                                                                                                                                                                                              R C rgu r
                   r
                           R ic hla nd




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   oo us s
                                                                                                                                                                                             Montana Pop Change, 2006-08, Urban-to-Rural




             To Hil                                                                                                                                                                                                                                R s evter
            Pr ol l                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   i
               a e                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 D chl elt
             V ir
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2008 Population by County in Montana - Urban-to-Rural




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       aw an
         G al ie                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                d
            a le                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Vason
           Wrfie y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        B  l le
    Pe F iba ld                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           la y
        t e u                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           T in
 Po rol rgu x                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Ph oo e
    w Ceu s                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sh i le
       de a m                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          er llip
           r rt                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Po            id s
        M River                                                                                                                                                                                                                                w LFalan
           cC e                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   de ib lo
           Ph on r                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    r e n
        D ill e                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    M Rivrty
            aw ip                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     c e
           D so s                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     D Co r
             an n                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       an n
             B iel                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     C ie e
           G lains                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  G ar ls
             l                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ar te
           La e                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Pr fie r
       Sh ib cier                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Pe W ai ld
     R er ert                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      tr ib rie
        oo i d y                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ol au
            s e an                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        eu x
               ve                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            m
                  lt
Distribution
of “Natural
Change” and
“Net
Migration” in
Montana
since 2000
The upper chart
shows population
change by county
resulting from
natural change, or
births and deaths,
since 2000. The
bottom chart shows
change resulting
from net migration.

Over half of
Montana‟s
population growth
is resulting from net
migration, but only
a few counties are
seeing much
growth from this.
Growth from natural
change also is
concentrated in a
few counties,
mainly the more
populated urban
counties and
counties nearby.
Age Shifts Among                                U.S. Population by Age: 1990 vs. 2000
                                  5,000,000
the U.S. Population
                                  4,500,000
The upper chart shows the
number of people living in the    4,000,000

U.S. by single age in 1990 and    3,500,000
ten years later in 2000. The
lower chart then shows            3,000,000
changes in the number of
                                  2,500,000
persons for each age during
the decade of the „90s.           2,000,000

The greatest growth in the        1,500,000
population occurred among
                                  1,000,000
persons in their early 40s to
early 60s. These are classic       500,000
“baby boomers” or persons
born after W.W. II between 1947          0

and 1963.                                10
                                         12
                                         14
                                         16
                                         18
                                         20
                                         22
                                         24
                                         26
                                         28
                                         30
                                         32
                                         34
                                         36
                                         38
                                         40
                                         42
                                         44
                                         46
                                         48
                                         50
                                         52
                                         54
                                         56
                                         58
                                         60
                                         62
                                         64
                                         66
                                         68
                                         70
                                         72
                                         74
                                         76
                                         78
                                         80
                                         82
                                         84
                                          0
                                          2
                                          4
                                          6
                                          8

                                                                  1990   2000
The tremendous rise in the
number of births during this
post-war period has skewed                    U.S. Population Change by Age: 1990-2000
the distribution of the U.S.      1,800,000
population, making baby
boomers the largest age group
among the population. The         1,200,000
next largest is the children of
boomers or the “echo” group.
                                   600,000
These bulges in the U.S.
population age profile are
                                              10
                                              12
                                              14
                                              16
                                              18
                                              20
                                              22
                                              24
                                              26
                                              28
                                              30
                                              32
                                              34
                                              36
                                              38
                                              40
                                              42
                                              44
                                              46
                                              48
                                              50
                                              52
                                              54
                                              56
                                              58
                                              60
                                              62
                                              64
                                              66
                                              68
                                              70
                                              72
                                              74
                                              76
                                              78
                                              80
                                              82
                                              84
continuing to ripple forward
                                              0
                                              2
                                              4
                                              6
                                              8




                                         0
and are contributing to the
accelerated aging of the
population.                       -600,000

				
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Description: Business Growth Chart document sample