Competitive Strategy for Credit Suisse - PDF

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					                                  Columbia University
                              Graduate School of Business
                              B8313-02 – Security Analysis
                                      Spring 2007

                           Professor Michael J. Mauboussin

                                   Table of Contents
Part One

Section 1 - Capital Markets

Jeremy J. Siegel                                                               1
Stock and Bond Returns Since 1802
(Stocks for the Long Run, 2nd Edition)

Burton G. Malkiel                                                              23
Firm Foundations and Castles in the Air
(A Random Walk Down Wall Street)

Steven Crist                                                                   34
Crist on Value
(Bet with the Best)

Jack L. Treynor                                                                48
Market Efficiency and the Bean Jar Experiment
(Financial Analysts Journal - May/June 1987)

Charles D. Ellis                                                               52
The Loser’s Game
(Financial Analysts Journal - July/August 1975)

Peter L. Bernstein                                                             58
Are Financial Markets the Solution or the Problem?
(Financial Analysts Journal – July/August 1975)

John Maynard Keynes                                                            62
The State of Long-Term Expectation
(The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money)

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                          72
Revisiting Market Efficiency: The Stock Market as a Complex Adaptive System
(Journal of Applied Corporate Finance – Volume 14, November 4 – Winter 2002)

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                          81
Capital Ideas Revisited: The Prime Directive, Sharks, and the Wisdom
of Crowds
(Legg Mason Capital Management – March 2005)

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                          100
Capital Ideas Revisited-Part 2: Thoughts on Beating a Mostly-Efficient Stock
Market Index
(Legg Mason Capital Management – May 2005)

W. Brian Arthur                                                                112
Complexity in Economic and Financial Markets
Complexity
Section 2 - Valuation

John Burr Williams                                                                 128
(The Theory of Investment Value)

Merton H. Miller and Franco Modigliani                                             139
Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares

Franco Modigliani and Merton H. Miller                                             163
The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment
The American Economic Review

Merton H. Miller                                                                   200
The Modigliani-Miller Propositions After Thirty Years
Journal of Economic Perspectives

Michael J. Mauboussin, Alexander Schay, Patrick McCarthy                           223
Competitive Advantage Period “CAP” –
At the Intersection of Finance and Competitive Strategy
(Credit Suisse First Boston, October 4, 2001)

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                              243
Common Errrors in DCF Models
(Legg Mason Capital Management – March 2006)

Section 3 - Strategy

Michael J. Mauboussin and Kristen Bartholdson                                      256
Measuring the Moat: Assessing the Magnitude and Sustainability of Value Creation
(Credit Suisse First Boston, December 16, 2002)

Michael E. Porter                                                                  309
What is Strategy?
(Harvard Business Review, November/December 1996)

James M. McTaggart, Peter W. Kontes, Michael C. Mankins                            329
Resource Allocation
The Value Imperative, The Free Press 1994

W. Brian Arthur                                                                    346
Increasing Returns and the New World of Business
Harvard Business Review, July/August 1996
Part Two

Section 4 - Decision Making Theory/Behavioral Finance

Max H. Bazerman                                                                 357
Judgment under Uncertainty
(Judgment in Managerial Decision Making)

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                           383
Decision Making for Investors
(Legg Mason Capital Management – May 2004)

J. Edward Russo, Paul J. Schoemaker                                             403
Decision Traps and How to Avoid Them
Chemical Engineering, May 1991

Werner F.M. DeBondt and Richard H. Thaler                                       407
Does the Stock Market Overreact?
(The Journal of Finance - July 1986)

Michael J. Mauboussin and Alfred Rappaport                                      421
Pitfalls to Avoid
(www.expectationsinvesting.com, 2001)

Arthur Zeikel                                                                   428
On Thinking
(Financial Analysts Journal - May/June 1988)

Section 5 - Buffett/Munger

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger                                               433
We Want Something That Shouts At Us. If It's Close, We Don't Play...
(Outstanding Investor Digest - June 1993)

Charlie Munger                                                                  453
A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom as it Relates
to Investment Management & Business
(Outstanding Investor Digest - May 1995)

Charlie Munger                                                                  469
Wesco Financial’s Charlie Munger Worldly Wisdom Revisited:
Lesson #2 “How Do You Get Worldly Wisdom? Just Take the Best Models
From all Disciplines.”
(Outstanding Investor Digest – December 1997)

Charlie Munger                                                                  478
Wesco Financial’s Charlie Munger Worldly Wisdom Revisited:
Lesson #2, Part 2 “Master the Best that Others have Figured Out. No One’s
Smart Enough to Dream it Up Himself.”
(Outstanding Investor Digest – March 1998)

Charlie Munger                                                                  496
Academic Economics: Strengths and Faults After Considering
Interdisciplinary Needs
(Speech given at the University of California, Santa Barbara, Economics
Department, 2003)

Charlie Munger                                                                  521
A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom as it Relates to Investment Management
and Business
(Speech given at the USC School of Business, 1994)
Warren Buffett                                                                      540
Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Letters to Shareholders, 1982

Warren Buffett                                                                      559
Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Letters to Shareholders, 1986

Warren Buffett                                                                      590
Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Letters to Shareholders, 1987

Warren Buffett                                                                      619
Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Letters to Shareholders, 1988

Warren Buffett                                                                      646
Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Letters to Shareholders, 1991

Warren Buffett                                                                      668
Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Letters to Shareholders, 1992

Warren Buffett                                                                      695
Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Letters to Shareholders, 1994

Robert C. Hagstrom, Jr.                                                             720
Buying a Business
(The Warren Buffett Way)

Warren Buffett                                                                      732
The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville
(The Intelligent Investor)

Section 6 - More Than You Know / Consilient Observer

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                               745
The Babe Ruth Effect: Frequency Versus Magnitude in Expected Value
(More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places)

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                               751
Diversify Your Mind: Thoughts on Organizing for Investment Success
(More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places)

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                               757
A Tail of Two Worlds
(More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places)

Michael J. Mauboussin and Kristen Bartholdson                                       763
Puggy Pearson’s Prescription: All Any Investor Needs to Know
(Credit Suisse First Boston, TCO, Volume 1, Issue 11, June 4, 2002)

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                               767
The Janitor’s Dream: Why Listening to Individuals Can Be Hazardous to Your Wealth
(More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places)

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                               772
Beware of Behavioral Finance: Misuse of Behavioral Finance Can Lead to
Bad Thinking
(More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places)

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                               777
Is There a Fly in Your Portfolio?: What an Accelerating Rate of Industry Change
Means for Investors
(More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places)
Michael J. Mauboussin                                                            782
The Hot Hand in Investing: What Streaks Tell Us About Perception, Probability,
and Skill
(More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places)

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                            788
Investing: Profession or Business?: Thoughts on Beating the Market Index
(More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places)

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                            796
Be the House: Process and Outcome in Investing
(More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places)

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                            802
Time is On My Side: Myopic Loss Aversion and Portfolio Turnover
(More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places)

Michael J. Mauboussin                                                            810
I’ve Fallen and I Can’t Get Up: Mean Reversion and Turnarounds
(More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places)

Michael J. Mauboussin and Kristen Bartholdson                                    816
The Low Down on the Top Brass: Management Evaluation and the
Investment Process
(Credit Suisse First Boston, TCO, Volume 2, Issue 22, December 2, 2003)

				
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