"Business Aircraft Market Forcast"
North West Regional Skills Strategy Partnership North West Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 This statement provides an overview of skills required to support regional economic growth, with a focus on articulating the specific skills priorities that require attention and response from providers and stakeholders. It sets out overall priorities for the North West Region for the academic year 2011/12. This has been developed through extensive consultation with key partners and providers and the development of the North West Skills Evidence Base (http://www.nwriu.co.uk). Introduction Reducing the budget deficit and simultaneously securing the recovery are the key priorities for the coalition government. This will require growth in the private sector and a reduction in the welfare budget by more people working. In turn this will require a revival of the enterprise culture, private sector job creation and a rebalancing of the economy by developing a stronger manufacturing base. The North West is essential in this deficit reduction agenda both as the UK‟s largest manufacturer and with high levels of people currently not in employment. The Government has already demonstrated that it is prepared to take a differential approach to economic development across the country and this gives a number of opportunities for the region to collectively support the Government‟s agenda, by: Ensuring skills development is “future-proofed” given the changing landscape, including the; a. stimulation of employer and individual demand b. inclusion in self-sustaining provider networks c. increased co-operation between providers and partners ensuring delivery is to both effective and efficient d. planning of skills for future needs (forecasting) e. alignment of new funding policy with identified skills priorities f. emergence of a performance management linked to outputs contributing to local growth g. facilitation of learner progression into employment and onto further training Seizing the opportunity for creating a growing and dynamic private sector and reducing the dependency on public sector Reducing benefit dependency and the numbers not in work Promoting and building on the North West‟s current manufacturing strengths, and the role Government has identified for this sector in rebalancing the economy 1 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) Building on the region‟s strong social enterprise and volunteering sector to meet the challenge of „Big Society‟ Therefore the North West must focus on driving private sector growth, wealth creation, productivity, enterprise, the creation of jobs and supporting key industries such as the manufacturing sector, digital and creative sector, and the development of the low carbon energy and technologies offer. Background Fig 1: North West showing functional economic areas The North West has a population of 6.9 million of which 4.2 million are of working age. It borders Scotland and Wales as well as 4 other regions in the North of England and the Midlands. The region; is worth £120 billion1 has a diverse economy and internationally competitive sectors e.g. nuclear, advanced manufacturing /engineering, biomedical, digital and creative & media. in terms of GVA is the largest manufacturing region in the UK1 has investment by business in research and development is second only to the South East1 has delivered the most Apprenticeship starts in the country between 2008 and 2010 (72,000 starts)2. an improving economy. (The North West is ranked 4th in the UK Competitiveness Index rising from 8th and overtaking East Midlands, South West, West Midlands and Scotland.)1 increasing levels of exports (12.2% compared with England average of 11.8%)1 has the largest share of Foreign Direct Investment outside London and the South East (in 2009/10 there were 179 projects, generating 13,486 jobs)1 Despite this the North West economy is still fragile and there are challenging economic circumstances ahead. For example, the North West economy is not as productive as it could be, there are too few people in employment and there are too few jobs being created in the private sector. The North West productivity currently lags behind the UK average by £20.4 billion3 and economic growth and job creation is forecasted to be significantly slower than the UK average (however this is not uniform across the region). 1 Summary of Evidence Papers for Future North West Our Shared Priorities (November 2009) 2 Statistical First Release Table S6.1 June 2010 (Supplementary Table) 3 Regional Economic Forecasting Panel Long Term Forecasts (March 2010) 2 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) A reduction in public sector budget will have a significant impact on the North West as it is the largest employer in the region 4 (employing over 500,000 people), with some districts such as Blackpool and Sefton deriving more than 40% of their employment from the sector. Budget constraints will lead to a reduction of future employment levels (direct and through project funding). There is an aspiration that the private sector will pick up some of the redundant workforce through additional job creation. The North West will find this challenging, as it is estimated that up to 200,000 new private sector jobs will be required5. This sits against the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) data which has indicated that there was a reduction in private sector jobs, - 21,700 private jobs between 2003-2008. (51,000 jobs however were created in the public sector.) Therefore it is clear that if the North West’s economic development is not to slow, appropriate conditions and incentives must be in place to ensure more private sector jobs are created. The region will also need to find ways to facilitate effective skills transfer for individuals leaving the public sector to find work in the private sector. If the employment rate in the North West matched the England average there would be 50,000 more workers in the labour force1. JSA levels and numbers claiming incapacity benefits remain stubbornly higher than the national average and over half a million people still have no qualifications. There are high levels of poverty, ill health and social exclusion, with entrenched worklessness, often next to areas of economic success. The recent North West priority document (Future North West: Our Shared Priorities) identifies a number of „big ticket‟ issues to be considered across the region and which will help to deliver the Government‟s emerging agenda. Appropriate skills development has been identified as a key thread running through all of these issues. These include the development of; 1. Enterprising capabilities of our people through education and skills. 2. The North West‟s world leading advanced manufacturing and digital and creative industries 3. The North West‟s low carbon energy offer, especially in nuclear and renewables 4. Next Generation Access (NGA) across the region 5. Increasing numbers of private and third sector jobs and tackle the deep seated causes of worklessness Future North West also explicitly identifies growth potential of places for example: Manchester will be a key generator of wealth for the North West, and an important driver of growth across the North as a whole; Liverpool will be a world class cultural city, a major driver of economic growth and international gateway; the international potential of the Liverpool-Manchester corridor will have been developed; Preston and Warrington will be key growth centres for the North West. 4 The size and shape of the Public Sector Experian, July 2009 5 Adjournment debate on North West Economy House of Commons 20 July 2010 3 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) Crewe, Chester, Lancaster and Carlisle will play important roles as sub- regional growth hubs; The challenge is for the public, private and third sector to support the region‟s population through targeted and joined up interventions, so they have the education and skills, as well as health, opportunities and social mobility, enabling them to enjoy life and make a positive contribution to the economy and their communities. To meet these challenges the North West has agreed the following strategic skills objectives. The region should:- 1. Tackle barriers, such as low aspirations and poor connectivity, which prevent individuals, especially young people, from obtaining employability skills, to facilitate entry into employment and progression in the workplace. (This will include Skills for Life particularly numeracy) 2. Ensure information, advice and guidance (through Next Step and others) is coupled to North West economic development needs, enabling individuals to make informed choices linked to regional and sub-regional/local employment opportunities. 3. Meet the needs of North West growth sectors by increasing intermediate and higher skills attainment, particularly in relation to STEM subjects. 4. Address the significant replacement demand in energy and advanced manufacturing, including improved progression (including upskilling and reskilling), workforce retention and increased recruitment of young people. 5. Ensure the North West produces high quality leaders and managers to develop a high performing workforce and exploit developing growth markets such as low carbon. 6. Drive enterprise and innovation skills to increase the number of business start-ups and improve company longevity. Priority Sectors In identifying those sectors which are critical to the North West economy a balance needs to be found between those sectors which will contribute most to the GVA of the region and those who generate the most employment opportunities. Many of the growth sectors, particularly in advanced manufacturing, are not expected to contribute significantly to the job creation necessary for the region. The skills requirements of growth and high employment sectors need to be addressed. Regional growth sectors6 will be low carbon (nuclear, renewables and environmental goods and services), advanced manufacturing/engineering (including aerospace and automotive), chemicals, biomedical and digital & creative. The fastest growth in GVA between 2006 and 2020 are in the following sectors; Advanced Engineering 2.2% increase in GVA6 Biomedical 1.3% increase in GVA6 6 Sectors Research Paper – NWRIU (November 2009) 4 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) The high employment sectors in the region are indicated in table 1 below; Table 1: High employment sectors and employment levels for the North West (IDBR Unit data 2007) North West High Employment Sectors Public Administration 509,000 Food and Drink 423,000 Health and Social Care 390,000 Finance and Professional Services 373,000 Manufacturing 368,000 Retail 263,000 Construction 220,000 Tourism and Lesiure 218,000 Distribution and Transport 196,000 The fastest growing employment sectors from 2006 to 2020 are expected to be health and social care (+ 3.3%) followed by advanced engineering, construction and tourism & leisure. The growth priority sectors identified by the sub-regional plans are outlined in Table 2 below. Table 2: Sub-regional priority sectors 7 Sub-region Sub-regional priority sectors Cheshire and Warrington Chemical and biomedical, Advanced Manufacturing (including automotive), Financial and Professional Services, Low Carbon (nuclear and renewables) Digital and Creative Tourism and Leisure Health and Social Care Cumbria Low Carbon (nuclear, renewables and environmental technologies), Construction, Advanced Manufacturing, Food and Drink, Tourism and Leisure, Health and Social Care Digital and Creative Lancashire Advanced Manufacturing (including aerospace, electronics, automotive, advanced flexible materials), Chemicals, Food and Drink, Low Carbon (nuclear) 7 Sub-regional Employment and Skills Strategies 5 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) Tourism and Leisure. Digital and Creative Greater Manchester Advanced Manufacturing (including automotive engineering supply chain), Digital and Creative, Low Carbon (technologies), Biomedical and Health and Social Care Financial and Professional Services Greater Merseyside Tourism and Leisure, Transport and Logistics, Low Carbon (renewables) Digital and Creative (including research and development and computing) Financial and Professional Services Health and Social Care Retail Further detail on the skills needs in the emerging LEP areas is currently being developed and will be Annex 4 to this document. Key workforce skills challenges Although progress has been made, North West residents are still less likely to hold a Level 4 qualification than those in other regions and 14.7% of the region’s working age population has no qualifications (623,000 individuals)10. There has been a slight rise in those qualified to Level 2 compared to 20028 and a slight fall in the percentage of the working age population qualified to Level 3. The current position would suggest there will be a potential shortfall of approximately 85,0009 people at Level 3/ technical skills. Therefore it is key that the North West continues to support large number of Apprenticeships (especially Advanced Apprenticeships) in the coming years. Qualification levels of the North West population differ greatly across the region. Those in Merseyside are more likely to hold no qualifications than anywhere else the Lancashire population have the highest proportion qualified to Level 3 and Cheshire and Warrington has the highest number of people with Level 4 or above10. There has been significant progress on Skills for Life in the region. By August 2007, the North West had achieved 223% of its 2004-7 target11. However the majority of this provision was at Level 1 and 2, suggesting that more is required at entry Level, especially in numeracy, if the region is to address the long “tail” of Skills for Life required in both the potential and current workforce. Skills for Life (in particular numeracy) and employability skills, have been identified by North West employers as requirements for the future workforce12. 8 National Strategic Skills Audit: Skills for Today and Tomorrow (UKCES, March 2010) 9 Adapted from Oxford Economic Forecasting 10 North West Pocket Databook (NW RIU, March 2010) 11 North West Skills for Life Strategy, updated 2009 12 National Employer Survey, 2009 6 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) _________________________________________________________________ Current and Future Economic Demand The following skills requirements have been highlighted for high growth and high employment sectors in the region. High growth sectors13– these sectors are characterised by a dependence on STEM subjects and a need to ensure that the majority of the workforce is skilled to Level 3 or above. This sector is supported by a significant amount of research and development activity. Not all activity will be supporting new jobs, and may instead support the upskilling and reskilling of the existing workforce. These sectors do however drive the regional economy in terms of generating GVA. There will also be a low carbon requirement across the whole of the economy. - Advanced Manufacturing - This sector includes aerospace and automotive engineering, chemicals and biomedical. The North West is the largest manufacturing region in England. Manufacturing is the only sector which has a North West average GVA per head higher than the national figure14 and employs over 334,000 people (with a particular focus in West Lancashire). In aerospace, the use of composite components in both civil and military aircraft is growing rapidly particularly requiring systems engineering training and greater understanding of supply chain needs. Emerging sectors could include unmanned aerial vehicles, solid state lighting and other low carbon environmental good and services. The sector needs to see an improvement in innovation and enterprise skills, STEM skills, technical, practical, job-specific skills, problem solving, customer handling and management skills8. Engineering o Has technical skills gaps in computer numerical control (CNC) machine operations, tool setting and welding with a net requirement by 2014 for 11,000 individuals at Level 3, 12,000 at Level 4 and around 3,000 at Level 5 or above15. o 9% of the workforce (17,000), currently have no qualifications, rising to 16% in the automotive sub-sector, with a net requirement to 2014 for 10,000 people at Level 2 and 8,000 at Level 1 8. o Barrow and the surrounding peninsula and West Lancashire have high technology clusters of advanced engineering and defence companies and there is evidence of growth requirements in Level 4 and higher level skills in 2013. o Historical trends show the take up of engineering provision is not as high as the sector needs and therefore further stimulation is required. o Current Level 3 and Level 4 delivery is advanced engineering should be maintained along with more training in leadership and management. 13 Various Sources including Sector Skills Assessments produced in conjunction with the UKCES National Strategic Skills Audit and NWDA Responding to the Low Carbon Agenda research paper 14 NWDA Manufacturing Strategy 15 Engineering Skills Balance Sheet, SEMTA and NSAM, October 2008 7 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) o Other critical roles for the sector include planners, project and programme design, project and programme management, chartered engineers, specialist scientists, site and construction managers and safety specialists. o An ageing workforce will mean more people are required to meet replacement demand in future years Chemicals manufacturing and processing industry o Accounts for 21%13 of total UK employment in the sector with major employment concentrations in Cheshire and Lancashire. o There are shortages of technical and engineering skills such as technicians, fitters and operators. o An ageing workforce will mean more people are required to meet replacement demand in future years. Biomedical o Requires higher level skills including STEM. o Generic skills required include leadership and management, scientific and health regulation, negotiation, procurement and customer handling. o The sector is heavily dependent on graduates. - Digital and Creative o Employing 140,000 people, the North West has the second largest digital and creative sector in the country16, with major investment in Media City, in Salford, predicted to generate over 4000 jobs and a growing gaming industry centred around Liverpool and Manchester. Prior to the recession the creative and cultural workforce had grown by 28% in the North West since 2006 (UK growth was 9%)17. o Occupations which have proved difficult to recruit are; graphic designer, Administrator, ICT roles, retail and sales and technician roles. The design industry has experienced the most difficulties. o The games industry employers are experiencing difficulty in recruiting programmers due to a decline in computer science and STEM graduates entering the sub sector. o There is a need to develop business and entrepreneurial skills, leadership & management skills , IT skills at Level 3 and management and professional skills for computing and software sub-sector o There is demand for medium and higher-level skills including developers for future media and technology and the wider digital and games sectors, project managers, multi-platform content production, journalism, specialists in children‟s content, producer, senior producer, post-production and studio skills. For digital industries this will include programme, project and supplier management, service management delivery and leadership and interpersonal skills. o There are also skills gaps at technical skill levels for studio directors, multi- camera operators, floor managers, vision mixers and lighting directors. o It is estimated over 7,000 freelancers will be required to service the needs of companies based at MediaCity. There are just over 5,600 businesses in 16 North West Vision and Media Overview Paper 2009 17 Creative and Cultural Skills response to RSPS, July 2010 8 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) the North West, 83% employing less than 5 people and therefore experience difficulties faced by SMEs17. o For digital industries and software, computer games and electronics there will be recruitment issues in the North West due to predicted growth and replacement demand; 9,880 new entrants every year to IT and telecoms professional roles, aggregating to over 49,000 over the next 5 years18 o Currently there is underemployment in this sector of women and minority ethnic communities. Planned investment for Next Generation Access (NGA) will increase skills required to construct, manage and utilise NGA digital connectivity and increase access to businesses and services and reduce the need to travel. - Low carbon (including nuclear and renewables) Nuclear o 53% of the national civil nuclear sector jobs are based in the North West (44,000 employees). o The sector is predicting high replacement demand over the next 15 years (around 70% of the current workforce is expected to retire by 2025), with an estimated requirement of 550 new graduates and apprentices each year between 2010 and 202519. o Key supply chain skills needs are in managerial, professional & technical and skilled operatives/specialist skills. (Specialist skills will include scaffolding, thermal insulation, electrical, engineering, riggers, fitters, metal recycling, asbestos, decommissioning and remote handling.) o Britain‟s Energy Coast West Cumbria is establishing itself as a centre of excellence for nuclear and other environmental technologies. (This may also lead to a demand in construction skills.) Renewable o Renewable sources account for 5% of the North West electricity. The aim is to increase this to 15% by 2020. o 10% of the UK’s £106.5 billion low carbon and environmental good and service sector is based in the North West, with 5,000 companies employing 87,000 people20. o An expansion in renewable energy will generate 15,000 new jobs in the region in design, manufacture, operations and maintenance for wind and tidal projects, 10,000 jobs requiring skills in the installation, operation and maintenance of new technologies and 6,000 new jobs in renewable energy manufacture21. o In environmental/energy technologies upskilling is required to Level 2 and 3 in gas and water industries. There are opportunities in Cumbria needs to exploit growth opportunities in the low carbon economy, nuclear environmental technologies and renewables sector. 18 E-skills UK Sector Skills Council Ltd 2000-2010 19 North West Skills Evidence Base, July 2010 20 Ekosgen Report 21 NWDA Low Carbon Response Report 9 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) o There are tidal power opportunities in the Mersey and other estuaries in the North West, along with wind power in the Irish Sea. o The greatest skills demand is at L4, although over the next 3 years there is a projected training need across all levels. o Currently there is an oversupply of people with Level 1 skills. The demand for jobs with no qualifications is expected to fall, therefore upskilling and progression needs to be supported in this sector. There are estimated to be 748,000 jobs directly affected by the low carbon transition of which 422,000 will require “greening”, 298,000 will be created by the expansion of the low carbon economy and 28,000 will be new jobs13. High employment sectors13 - These sectors make an important contribution to regional employment and GVA. Skills required tend to be at Level 2 and 3 (although many do require some higher level skills, especially leadership and management). As a result these sectors provide progression opportunities to those currently unemployed. A significant issue for the region is the high replacement demand in health and social care, nuclear, engineering, education, leisure and tourism, food and drink, retail, construction, logistics and financial and professional services sectors. For example the business and professional services sector has estimated that it will require 50,000 new recruits over next decade to maintain employment levels22.. These sectors also require up-skilling and re- skilling of their current workforce at Levels 2 and 3. It is expected that replacement demand could outstrip expansion demand by as much as ratio of 40:19. For sectors such as engineering and nuclear, the ageing workforce and retirement of existing staff will be a main driver for replacement demand. However possible changes in behaviour, such as people working beyond expected retirement age, may impact on these forecasts. Health and Social care o Employs 390,000 people in the region and is the fastest growing employment sector partly due to an ageing population increasing demand for health and social care services6. o There is a requirement for more senior managers, social workers and care assistants. With gaps in technical, practical and job specific skills. o Up-skilling, particularly to Level 2 is still a requirement to meet changing regulatory requirements. o There is a small but significant role played by migrant labour and it will be important to monitor the impact restrictions may have on the requirement for skills. Retail o Employs 263,000 people in the region. o Skills requirement for customer handling and team working skills with a large proportion (53%) of sales and customer service staff below Level 2. The focus would be to up-skill the existing workforce. 22 FSSC Skills Assessment Report 2010 10 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) o There is a predicted 13% skills gap in this sector particularly for management and technical skills. Only 24% of managers are currently educated to Level 423. o There is a high replacement demand in this sector and has experienced difficulty in attracting and retaining staff. Professional and Financial services o Employs 373,000 in the North West o The Financial Services Authority‟s (FSA) Retail Distribution Review is making it a requirement for all retail investment advisers to be level 4 qualified by the end of 2012. This will have a huge impact on the Financial Advice sub sector. o Most employment in the sector is in retail banking and insurance, although wholesale banking and insurance activities are the most productive. o London, the North West and East of England account for 57% of the sectors employment and most people have skills levels equivalent to level 46. o Regional centres of activity are based in Manchester and Cheshire o Independent financial advisors may need to be qualified to level 4. o Skills requirements include ICT, customer handling and customer services skills at level 3. Manchester has a need for replacement demand. o There is a clear need to attract new talent and therefore progression pathways need to be developed for employees, addressed partly through an improved apprenticeship offer o The business and professional services sector requires 50,000 new recruits over the next 10 years to maintain employment levels22. Tourism and leisure o Employs 218,000 people in the region o The sector will play an increasingly important role as the region develops its international connectivity through the Liverpool and Manchester Airports and the development of high speed rail connections from the North West to London and Europe. o The expanding Liverpool “Superport” has identified skills needs in logistics at Level 2 and Level 3. o An improved skills base will also support the regions world class sporting/culture/quality of place offer and the attraction of Manchester, Liverpool, Chester, Blackpool, Carlisle, Lancaster and the Lake District as international destinations. The region is also likely to benefit from the Olympics in 2012 (already 200 North West businesses have been awarded contracts associated with the games). o Skills needs identified include customer service (including communication, customer engagement and team working) and Skills for Life. (Currently 12% of the workforce hold no qualifications at all.24) 23 Skillsmart LMI Report (Regional) 24 People First SSC Assessment. 11 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) o Future skills demand for Level 2 is expected to decrease and there will be an increase in demand for Level 3. Demand for Level 4 and management skills is expected to rise. o Occupations in short supply are sports coaches, instructors and officials, highly skilled chefs and play workers. Food and drink o Employs 423,000 people in the North West and accounts for 14% of the sector nationally. 37% of this workforce work is in the bakery subsector. o Currently 67% of the sectors employees have Level 2 or lower qualifications with 17% of workers having no qualifications25. o Future skills growth will be for technical roles (including food scientists), supervisors/managers, machine operators and those with craft skills. o There is also a growing demand for employees to have foreign language skills, strategic sales skills, IT and financial management skills. o The region has strengths in land based skills at all levels to promote sustainable farming and food production and its role in managing the countryside and increasing food security particularly in the rural areas of Cheshire, Cumbria and Lancashire. Reaseheath and Myerscough Colleges in Cheshire and Lancashire respectively are both centres of excellence for land based provision. o There is a small but significant role played by migrant labour and it will be important to monitor the impact restrictions may have on requirement for skills. Construction o Employs 220,000 people in the North West and is worth over £900 million to the regional economy but the recession and heavy reliance on the public sector is impacting on the market26. o The highest proportion of employees work in Lancashire, Salford and Manchester o The sector identifies a 7% skills gap in the North West, highest of all regions. o 73% of the workforce hold a Level 2, but a significant minority have no qualifications. o Future skills required will include low carbon retrofitting future building developments and utilising new products and processes, Level 4 and leadership and management skills. o Attracting and retaining employees remains a challenge for the sector. Transport and Logistics o Employs 196,000 people in the North West, the second largest employment level outside the South East. It is of particular importance for Liverpool City Region and the development of the Superport. o Skills required include technical, practical and job specific skills, including customer handling and oral communication. 25 IMPROVE Sector Skills Assessment 26 Construction Sector Skills Council Assessment 12 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) o The sector has a higher than average level of people without a Level 2 and a lower proportion of people with a Level 4 than the national average. Cross cutting themes Young people – the North West has a declining young population, with forecasts showing a decrease in young people of 147,000 by 203027. The challenge is ensure that this cohort is as skilled as possible to meet the demands of the future North West economy. In 2007-8 the North West had less young learners in full time education than the national average (69.7% vs 72%) and those Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) was 7.8% 1 in 2008 compared to a national average of 6.7%. The region also needs to monitor the change in the NEET cohort, which is now 19-24 years old. As a result of this change there needs to be action to ensure provision is available to support these learner needs. There is a need to tackle low aspirations and ensure young people are supported to develop underpinning employability skills. Schools, colleges and training providers should ensure more young people leave equipped for work and that the Information, Advice and Guidance (IAG) support they receive encourages the acquisition of STEM skills and other subject areas relevant to growth sectors. There is also a need to consider early years learning and support for families in tackling inter-generation attitudes to learning, along with other barriers such as transport and connectivity. Information, advice and guidance (IAG) – should be linked to North West economic development needs and enable individuals to make informed choices linked to regional employment opportunities. Improved support is required for BME graduates who are currently more likely to be unemployed six months after graduation28. Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) – STEM skills have been identified as a requirement for the North West priority sectors of nuclear, advanced manufacturing (including aerospace), biomedical, digital and creative, chemicals and automotive at Levels 2, 3 and 4. Despite this there has been a slight decline in the number of STEM qualifications being achieved. There will also be opportunities linked to climate change including developing a coordinated programme to retrofit housing stock and other buildings, reducing energy demand and improving energy efficiency. In 2007-8 40.5% of students at North West HEIs were studying STEM subjects, 6.2% higher than England average12. However, many graduates do not pursue STEM related careers. Even with good graduate retention rates1 (second only to London), there remains a challenge of ensuring these individuals are linked to employment opportunities in growth sectors. There is a need therefore to develop better University – Business relationships, including internships, e.g. the development of ITMB degrees (NWUA and e-skills). 27 Adapted from 2008 Mid-Year population estimates - ONS 28 Unlocking the Potential of the BME groups Experian (March 2010) 13 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) Leadership and management – further development is required to ensure an effective workforce and employers which can fully exploit new markets and drive up performance of their companies. These companies will also ensure full utilisation of the employee skills, preventing underemployment. If the North West could raise its business leaders and managers to the top quartile it would add £1 billion to the economy29. Effective leadership and management would lead to high performance working, improving profitability, job satisfaction, motivation and better opportunities for people. It is expected that leaders will also take a key role in the “greening” of existing jobs as we move to a low carbon economy. The recent LEAD programme (supporting 67 businesses in leadership and management development) has led to a 64% increase in business sales turnover. 93% of those involved have also indicated that they expected turnover to increase in the next 2 to 3 years (the average annual increase in sales being projected as £310,000 per annum). 22 of the businesses have also experienced an increase in employment and 43% of the businesses involved has seen an increase in productivity.30 Enterprise and innovation – As a region we lag behind the England average in terms of business start ups; for every 10,000 of the adult population in 2007 there were 37 business start ups. This figure is less than the UK average of 42 per 10,000 of the adult population1 (see Fig 2). Figure 2: Start up (rate per 10,000 adults) by region The region therefore needs another 91,000 VAT registered businesses/self- employed individuals to be at the national average) and improved company longevity (although North West businesses survival rate is slightly higher than the UK average, 66.2% against 65.2% will help the region maintain its international competitive status, sustain economic growth and rebalance the economy. The number expecting to start a business between 2008 and 2011 is 6.6% compared to the national figure of 7.4%19. The region should also continue to support the development of an enterprise culture in schools, colleges and universities (this could include internships and entrepreneurial activity aimed at graduates) and support innovation in areas of high business growth. The North West needs to raise the aspirations of business and encourage innovation at all levels in order to maximise productivity. Employability Skills - There needs to be on-going support for developing transferable employability skills including Skills for Life, communication skills, problem solving and IT skills as raised by employers as a concern. (North West employers report that 92% of all job vacancies require applicants to have IT user 29 Leadership and Management Interim Report NWRIU (March 2010) 30 LMAS Interim Evaluation 14 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) skills.). Individuals need to be supported to develop these skills and access progression routeways through the emerging foundation learning curriculum into further learning or priority growth/employment sectors if currently unemployed. One route which has demonstrated success has been the Personal Best volunteer programme, that will support individuals to be involved in preparations for the Olympic games in 2012. The percentage of skills gaps in the North West is 20%12. The largest percentage of skills gaps have been due to a lack of technical and practical skills (64% of employers) and customer handling skills (51% of employers). The majority of the skills gaps occur in Lancashire and Cheshire Local Authority areas. The region will need to monitor skills gaps which could arise due to changes in legislation applying to migrant workers. This is of particular concern for health and social care (recruiting numbers of workers from Asia and the Middle East) and food and drink (recruiting individuals from A8 countries). Demographics - Over the next 20 years the population of the region is forecast to increase from 6.9 million to 7.6 million1. By this time, those over 65 will number 1.7 million in comparison to 1.1 million now and those aged over 85 will double from 145,000 to 296,800. The ratio of those over 65 as a percentage of the total population will significantly increase from 16.5% in 2009 to 22.3% in 2030, whilst under 25s will fall from 31.4% in 2009 to 29.1%31. In the longer term the region will need to employ increasing numbers of 50 + year olds to make up for the shortfall in the 18 – 50 age group. The ageing population in the North West will mean that will also lead to an increase in demand for some sectors including health and social care, tourism and leisure and retail. The region may also need to consider individuals may wish to work for longer, which may lead to underemployment and displacement of opportunities for those entering the workplace. This may however also lead to opportunities for individuals to re- skill. However it is predicted that the ethnic minority population (currently 8%), will increase, although not evenly distributed across the region. ICT connectivity – Improved NGA coverage in the North West will help to support increased productivity, higher level skills, science and innovation, employment opportunities for all, and more cohesive, empowered and active communities. It is predicted that employment in IT and telecoms professionals in the North West will grow 3 times the UK average, requiring 49,400 new IT and telecoms professionals over the next 5 years. This will enhance many sectors, especially information-intensive sectors such as digital and creative industries, advanced engineering and manufacturing, biomedical and business and professional services. This will also lead to an increase in demand for ICT skills. The cost of businesses failing to effectively deploy ICT in the North West is estimated to be 3% of GVA per annum, between £3 billion and £4 billion per annum for the North West over the next 5 to 7 years1. 31 Adapted from ONS 2008 Mid-year population estimates 15 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) Employment Challenge In the North West 2.17 million residents live in England‟s 20% most deprived areas, which represents 30% of this region‟s population and a quarter of all children in the region – 199,000 in total- live in poverty (as defined as less than 60% of median income)32. Unemployment has significantly increased in the last two years with the current employment level at 71% - 2.6% below the national average. 9.4% of the population are claiming incapacity benefit/employment support allowance compared to 6.7% nationally32: with almost half of these linked to mental health problems. Disabled people, BME groups and those over 50 seem to be underemployed in the region. Therefore significantly improving employment rates in the region, through investment (e.g. Venture Capital), new enterprise formation, up-skilling and better health, would undoubtedly have a transformational affect on the prospects for North West as well as improve the life chances of individuals and their communities. Those seeking work should be made aware of realistic opportunities linked to growth and high employment sectors, using progression routeways were applicable. Evidence also shows that around 264,000 people are under employed in the workplace33. This problem will need to be remedied through the creation of new higher level jobs and effective leadership and management. The North West, like the rest of the UK has been suffering from the effects of the recession. Forecasts show that North West employment rates will not recover to 2008 levels until 2018 and in Lancashire not until 2029 (See fig 3). It is predicted that in the period of 2008-2011 there will be 127,000 (or 4.2%) net job losses in the region34. Half of the net job losses have been in manufacturing, with the majority of the rest being in distribution, retail and business services. As the regional economy recovers, business activity is rising faster that the UK average, particularly in manufacturing and service sectors, both important in terms of GVA and employment in the region. Fig 3; North West Job Growth Forecasting - REFP Long term Forecast As the economy moves out of recession it will be essential to maintain programmes supporting the integration of employment and skills in order to tackle 32 NW RIU data 33 Adapted from the National Skills Audit, UKCES (March 2010) 34 Labour Market 2020: Oxford Forecasting 16 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) barriers to worklessness and raise employment rates within our significant Incapacity Benefit population. The Voluntary Sector will have a key role to play in the delivery of the JCP new work programme. The region needs to continue to support foundation learning, Level 1 and Level 2 training. NESS 2010 indicates that skills shortage vacancies (SSVs) are experienced by only a limited (3%) number of employers in the North West. The main factors cited by employers are a lack of generic employment skills. The Jobcentre Plus (JCP) Labour Market Bulletin in April 2010 suggests that the top vacancies in the region were sales representation (2,897), care assistant and home carers (2,471) and telephone salespersons (2,128). The top three sought occupations by JSA claimants were sales and retail assistants (5,050), goods and handling storage (3,255) and general office assistants (2,215). There is therefore some correlation between the two, but mismatches remain. _________________________________________________________________ Distribution of Current Investment The North West has some of the best Further Education Colleges (FE) and work based learning providers in the country together with the second highest number of specialist schools and academies. The region also has a strong Higher Education (HE) sector. Generally demand for skills is being met, although there are sub-regional variations. The North West needs to recognise that core provision will still need to be met, alongside plans to deliver skills priorities highlighted in this document. Skills Funding Agency – Employer Responsive (Train to Gain) and Adult Learner Responsive The 2009/10 Employer Responsive budget for the North West was targeted at helping employers recover from the recession. Information supplied from the Skills Funding Agency35 showed that over half of the budget supported the Care, Construction, Engineering, Logistics and Customer Service sectors. In 2008/09 around one third of the North West Train to Gain budget was spent on training to support the manufacturing/advanced manufacturing sectors. However, the limitations of the data mean that further analysis will be needed. The same data gives an indication of the direction of travel for the Adult Learner Responsive funding stream. The data showed that the Habia, e-skills UK, Creative and Cultural Skills, Construction Skills and Skills for Health sectors accounted for 45% of the starts/learner volumes over that the last three years. The Skills Funding Agency also continued to substantially invest in Skills for Life provision. The SFA also continues to fund Adult and Community Learning. This plays a key role in engagement of adults, developing skills for employment and providing learning which will create a better society. 35 SFA data Report 22 – Train to Gain 17 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) National Apprenticeship Service (NAS) There is a strong apprenticeship service in the region – the North West delivered the most apprentice starts in the country between 2008 and 2010 (72,000 starts)2. The regional growth was 11.2%, 0.5% above the national average growth. Recent data (09/10) shows 16-18 starts have increased to 20.4% and 19-24 apprenticeships have increased to 23%. This growth exceeded the national average in both cases. However, for the 25+ age band whilst Greater Merseyside and Greater Manchester have seen growth in numbers, overall there has been a decline in numbers the region. The national numbers for this age group has also fallen. The split between apprenticeship and advanced apprenticeship has remained around two thirds of the investment at apprenticeship level whilst one third goes into advanced apprenticeships. Investment in apprenticeships continues to be directed mainly towards Business Administration, Customer Service, Hospitality and Catering, Child Care Learning and Development and Construction, Health and Social Care sectors. This appears to link to the identified key employment sectors but less to the high growth sectors. Young People’s Learning Agency (YPLA) The YPLA in the region has responsibility for over £750 million of investment in 2009/1036. When looking across all of YPLA funding streams the largest sector investments (excluding Skills for Life) were made in Arts, Media and Publishing which received 16% for this academic year. With respect to future needs of the North West economy there are encouraging signs of an increase in STEM related provision in terms of all categories, Apprenticeships Further Education and A Level entries. Health, Public Services and Care is also showing an increase in Further Education reflecting increasing employment in this sector. The YPLA will continue to commission 16-19 budgets in the future and not Local Authorities. Higher Education (HE) In the North West there is a strong HE base. In 2008/09, 73,500 degrees were awarded, which is 13% of the total for England. Of these degrees 40% were in STEM related disciplines37 which is 6% higher than the national average38. The latest available data shows that the expenditure of our universities was over £1.3 billion and that this funding supports the second largest student population in the country. 36 Data supplied from the YPLA 37 Adapted HESA table 15e supplied by NWUA 38 Summary of evidence papers NWRIU 18 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) Approximately 9% of Higher Education provision is delivered by FE colleges. This delivery method has resulted in more localised provision has proved to be more accessible for the local community. Close collaboration between HE and FE needs to be maintained and the role of foundation degrees monitored. Research and Development The region is supported by a large Research & Development (R&D) programme run through our universities. The region has experienced a rapid expansion of HEI R&D spend from £201 million in 2001 to over £500 million in 2006, a 10.2% per annum growth rate1. This is the highest growth of any region over this time period. These universities also make a large contribution to the regions key sectors through the Higher Level Skills Partnership (HLSP), developing a range of provision in-line with employer needs in the key North West growth sectors, to support future growth and competitiveness. Jobcentre Plus The North West annual budget for programmes for Jobcentre Plus is approximately £110 million. This is for delivery of all programmes for Jobcentre Plus customers including New Deal, Flexible New Deal and Pathways to Work. Target groups for these programmes are Long-Term unemployed customers - 6 months+ JSA - along with Lone Parents and Partners of JSA customers. Early entry criteria also apply for the most disadvantaged (ex-offenders, NEET, pre- Basic Skills, ESOL and People with Disabilities). The Future Jobs Fund is also delivering 20,000 jobs in North West up to March 2011 - funding for this is additional to the £110m above As the government rolls out the new Single Work Programme it needs to ensure it links to sustained employment opportunities in the region and fully utilises the Voluntary Sector. ESF In the North West there has been £238 million of ESF (JCP and LSC) available to support skills development between 2007-10 and a similar amount for 2011-14. The region has used this funding to procure additional activity for those affected by the recession. Private Sector Nationally the private sector contributes £40 billion into the skills development of their workforce. It is estimated that in the North West this would be over £5 billion annually. ________________________________________________________ Shifts in Investment and Other Priorities for Intervention After reviewing the evidence contained within this document and the North West Skills Evidence base, the North West has identified 6 key challenges that need to be addressed over the next 3 years. Key Challenges 19 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) 1. Ensuring skills development is “future-proofed” given the changing landscape, including the; a. stimulation of employer and individual demand h. inclusion in self-sustaining provider networks i. increased co-operation between providers and partners ensuring delivery is to both effective and efficient j. planning of skills for future needs (forecasting) k. alignment of new funding policy with identified skills priorities l. emergence of a performance management linked to outputs contributing to local growth m. facilitation of learner progression into employment and onto further training 2. Seizing the opportunity for creating a growing and dynamic private sector and reducing the dependency on public sector 3. Reducing benefit dependency and the numbers not in work 4. Promoting and building on the North West‟s current manufacturing strengths, and the role Government has identified for this sector in rebalancing the economy 5. Building on the region‟s strong social enterprise and volunteering sector to meet the challenge of „Big Society‟ The North West therefore has key priorities for action. These will require a shift in focus and investment. The North West needs to; Tackle barriers, such as low aspirations and poor connectivity, which prevent individuals, especially young people, from obtaining employability skills, to facilitate entry into employment and progression in the workplace. (This will include Skills for Life, particularly numeracy.) Too many people in the region have no qualifications, literacy and numeracy skills below Level 2 and low aspirations. Employers have recognised that many school leavers and graduates do not have the underpinning skills required for work. JCP Single Work Programme will need to be developed in partnership with wider skills providers. Schools, academies, sixth form and general FE colleges also need to continue to promote the importance of STEM subjects in the workplace, especially growth sectors. Ensure information, advice and guidance (through Next Step and others) is coupled to North West economic development needs, enabling individuals to make informed choices linked to regional and sub- regional/local employment opportunities. We need to create more jobs and promote a better match between skills development and skills demand from employers. This will be for individuals at all skills levels including graduates. Meet the needs of North West growth sectors by increasing intermediate and higher skills attainment, particularly in relation to STEM subjects. For growth sectors we need to support technician level skills (Level 3 and Level 4) and STEM skills aligned to economic development. (Automotive sub-sector however may wish to focus on Level 2 and 3 skills.) There is a high replacement demand due to aging demographics across the manufacturing/engineering sectors and nuclear sectors. Nuclear will have a requirement of skills at Level 3 and above. Low 20 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) Carbon renewables will need technical high level skills, including the “greening” of existing jobs. This will include support for STEM graduates so they can access regional opportunities in growth sectors. The SFA will also need to monitor the impact of reduced funding for Train to Gain on training for the manufacturing sector. Address the significant replacement demand in energy and advanced manufacturing, including improved progression (including upskilling and reskilling), workforce retention and increased recruitment of young people. This is a key issue for many high employment sectors. There will be replacement demand at all levels due to demographics and potential change in economic migration (in particular for the health and social care and food and drink sectors). Whilst there is a general requirement to upskill the workforce including more at Level 4, the majority of skills demand for high employment sectors is at Level 2, although food and drink also have a need for Level 3 technician skills. These sectors will be where the most job opportunities will be found and therefore progression routeways should be available for those currently unemployed. Ensure the North West produces high quality leaders and managers to develop a high performing workforce and exploit developing growth markets such as low carbon. The region will need to ensure that employers create jobs and seize opportunities for growth Drive enterprise and innovation skills to increase the number of business start-ups and improve company longevity. We also need to improve the level of new businesses created in the North West. Emerging Economic Development Projects The following projects will require providers and partners to work collectively on advocacy, skills delivery and progression. Mediacity West Cumbria Energy Coast Retrofitting North West housing and building stock to meet low carbon requirements. Major retail developments, e.g. Wirral Waters These proposed projects will need some planning with regards to skills as different skills sets will be required at different times, e.g. construction will need to take place before delivery. 21 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) Annex 1 How can the Skills Funding Agency and providers deliver on the North West Skills Priorities? The North West has some of the best Further Education (FE) Colleges and work based learning providers in the country and generally demand for skills is met by provision. These providers play a key role in the local communities with regards to economic regeneration and social inclusion. Moving forward Skills Funding Agency providers will have greater responsibility for understanding local skills needs, ensuring provision is suitable to meet demand and contribute to the ambitions of the coalition government. This will include influencing the emerging LEPs and working collaboratively with local partners and other providers. Although the Skills Funding Agency and NWDA would not wish to specify how providers should plan future delivery, both organisations would wish them to work collaboratively to provide real solutions for the following issues; 1. How can the provision delivered make a real economic and social impact on local communities (including working with disadvantaged groups such as NEET, offenders, BME communities and workless individuals)? 2. How will the evidence base findings and the North West Priorities Statement influence providers and partners in their planning of skills provision? 3. How will the region, sub-region and local communities support the developing growth sectors, such as low carbon and the growth in demand for technical level skills (L3) including apprenticeships and STEM subjects? 4. How are providers and partners working collectively to ensure there are progression opportunities, both for further learning and onto employment, particularly for young people? (This will include employability provision, Adult and Community Learning, Skills for Life provision, in particular numeracy and HE provision delivered in local communities.) 5. Is existing provision supporting both learner and employer demand being delivered in the most cost effective way for high employment and high growth sectors? (E.g. range of delivery models available to ensure SME and micro- business community can access provision, collaborative working with other providers/partners, promotion of joint investment) 6. How will demand for skills development be stimulated effectively in a strategic and focussed way? 7. How will providers and others ensure Information Advice and Guidance (working with Next Step) is effective in promoting a better match between skills development and skills demand? 8. What will providers do to maximise employer and individual investment (in line with national policy) in training (20% - 50% contribution)? 9. How are providers promoting innovation and enterprise skills? Including Leadership and management skills delivery for SMEs. 22 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) Table 1 shows a high level overview of the priority sectors and skills requirements identified by the five sub-regions. Level of skills sought Sub-region L2 L3 L4 L&M Cumbria Low Carbon (nuclear - particularly West Cumbria -and renewables) Construction Advanced Manufactoring Food and Drink Tourism and Leisure Health and Social Care Digital and Creative Level of skills sought Sub-region L2 L3 L4 L&M Cheshire Advanced Advanced Manufacturing (including Chemical, pharmaceutical, Manufacturing biomedical) (Automotive) Low Carbon (nuclear and renewables) Digital and Creative Financial and Professional Services Tourism and Leisure Health and Social Care Level of skills sought Sub-region L2 L3 L4 L&M Lancashire Advanced Advanced Manufacturing (aerospace, electronics, advanced flexible Manufacturing materials and chemicals) (Automotive) Food and Drink Low Carbon (nuclear) Tourism and Leisure Digital and Creative Level of skills sought Sub-region L2 L3 L4 L&M Greater Advanced Manufactoring (including automotive engineering supply Manchester chain and biomedical) Digital and Creative Low Carbon (technologies) Health and Social Care Financial and Professional Services Level of skills sought Sub-region L2 L3 L4 L&M Greater Tourism and Leisure Merseyside Transport and Logistics Low Carbon (renewables) Digital and Creative Financial and Professional Services Health and Social Care Retail 23 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) Annex 2 Engagement and consultation In developing the North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement (RSPS) 2011/12 the NWDA has consulted with a wide range of partners from the skills and employment sector. The Statement builds on the previous work of the North West Skills Employment Board now the Regional Skills Strategy Partnership (RSSP)39 and the North West RSPS 2010/11 produced in January 2010. It is also set in the wider context of the economic, social and environmental challenges highlighted in Future North West - Our Shared Priorities. Wide consultation of this document particularly through the Advisory Group (over 60 organisations covering key private, public and voluntary sector organisations) identified skills as the key thread to the successful development of the North West region. More specifically with regard to this RSPS, the Statement draws on the North West Regional Skills Priorities 2006-2009 and the Skills Challenges for the North West – 2009 both of which involved extensive consultation and agreement in the region. The RSPS 2011/2012 is built on a robust evidence base which has been published alongside this document and pulls together all the latest data on skills and employment for the North West from national, sub regional and local sources.40 The evidence base has also been consulted on and led to the key priorities highlighted and will remain a living document for use in conjunction with the RSPS. A meeting of the RSSP on 14 June 2010 endorsed the key priorities. In addition to a „virtual‟ consultation, the draft RSPS 2011-12 was discussed at length at the Regional Strategic Skills Partnership meeting on 22 July 2010. Partners and stakeholders agreed in principle to the key statements/ priorities outlined in the document. 39 Regional Skills Strategy Partnership membership: Alliance of Sector Skills Council including Cogent, Asset Skills, Creative and Cultural Skills, Pro Skills, Financial Services, Skills for Logistics, SEMTA Association of Colleges Business Link Northwest CBI Cheshire & Warrington Cumbria Vision Federation of Small Enterprise Commission Businesses Government Office North Higher Education Funding Job Centre Plus West Council Lancashire Economic Learning and Skills Council Manchester‟s Partnership Commission for the New Economy National Apprenticeship North West Chambers of North West Development Service Commerce Agency North West Provider Network North West Universities North West Vision and Association Media 4NW Skills Funding Agency The Mersey Partnership Voluntary Sector North West Young People‟s Learning Agency 40 Northwest Regional Skills & Employment Evidence Base June 2010 24 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) Annex 3 Evidence Base Cross-regional opportunities The North West borders both Wales and Scotland, as well as the English regions of West Midlands, East Midlands, Yorkshire and Humber and the North East. There are key functional economic areas particularly around Deeside in North Wales with the Airbus factory and across the Pennines into Yorkshire and Humber. The North West already works closely with the North East and Yorkshire and Humber Regions on innovation, transport, energy and regeneration projects as part of the Northern Way. The North West is also a key partner in the emerging Irish Sea Region which is the 9th largest economy in Europe, worth approximately £393.6 billion (€474.3 billion) with a population of 18.7 million people. The Irish Sea Region is home to 7 international airports, 23 universities, 20 major ports and 9 World Heritage Sites. The Irish Sea can be viewed as a „common resource‟ and opportunity for all surrounding regions to work together for mutual benefit. This may lead to opportunities in the following sectors/industries; renewable energy, marine spatial planning and mitigation/adaptation to Climate Change. Underpinning this statement is a detailed set of data and information on the take up of skills training by industry sector (by both the sector qualification and SIC footprints) in the region, produced by the Data Service from Skills Funding Agency learner data. This sectoral analysis is not currently available as part of the Government's published Statistical First Release, and therefore cannot be referenced or included within the Statement. For further regional information from the Statistical First Release, please visit http://www.thedataservice.org.uk/statistics/statisticalfirstrelease/ <https://owa.seeda.co.uk/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.thedataservice.org.uk/statistics/ statisticalfirstrelease/> <http://www.thedataservice.org.uk/statistics/statisticalfirstrelease/ <https://owa.seeda.co.uk/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.thedataservice.org.uk/statistics/ statisticalfirstrelease/> > List of references; 1. Regional Economic Forecasting Panel State of the North West Economy Long Term Forecasts available at http://www.nwriu.co.uk/documents/Long_Term_Report_-_March_2010.pdf 2. United Kingdom Competitiveness Index 2010 available at http://www.cforic.org/downloads.php 3. RS2010 Summary of the Evidence Base 4. UK Business Confidence Report ICAEW Q2 2010 5. Communities and Neighbourhoods Indices of Deprivation 2007 available at: 25 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) http://www.communities.gov.uk/communities/neighbourhoodrenewal/deprivation/de privation07/ 6. Working Futures 3 Economic Forecasts in the North West available at: http://readingroom.lsc.gov.uk/lsc/NorthWest/Working_Futures_3_Economic_Forcas t_in_the_North_West.pdf 7. Power People – The Civil Nuclear Workforce available at: http://www.cogent-ssc.com/research/renaissance_i.php 8. ONS Sub National Population Projections(SNPP) for England available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.asp?vlnk=997 9. Unlocking the Potential of BME Groups NWRIU 10. UKCES Skills for Jobs Today and Tomorrow available at: http://www.ukces.org.uk/evidence-reports/skills-for-jobs-today-and-tomorrow-the- national-strategic-skills-audit-for-england-2010-volume-2-the-evidence-report 11. North West Pocket Data Pack (NWRIU April 2010) 12. North West Universities Association Analysis based on HESA data 13. North West Universities Association: Working Together available at: http://www.nwua.ac.uk/docs/pdf/Working_Together_Building_on_10_years_of_suc cess_in_the_NW_universities.pdf 14. North West Universities Facts and Figures 2009 available at: http://www.nwua.ac.uk/docs/pdf/NWUA_facts_and_figures_Dec09.pdf 15. NAS Statistical Analysis provided by NW NAS 16. National Employer Service Return on Investment Research 2007 17. Research Into Young People‟s Under Achievement NWRIU. 18. North West Labour Market Bulletin February 2010 Job Centre Plus 19. 2030 North West Labour Market – Oxford Economics 20. UKCES: High Performance: A synthesis of key literature available at: http://www.ukces.org.uk/upload/pdf/UKCES%20Evidence%20Report%204.pdf 21. Cheshire and Warrington sub-region: Economic Assessment and SWOT report Draft Report 22. Cheshire and Warrington: Investing in Success Final Draft 23. Sectors Evidence base for RS2010 24. Cumbria Economic and Skills Audit: Phase 3 Identification of future skills needs and delivery plan – final report for Cumbria Vision January 2010 Experian Consulting 25. Greater Manchester Skills Priority Statement 2010 – 2011 available at: http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/836-skills_and_employment_ 26 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) 26. Manchester Independent Economic Review: Labour Markets, Skills and Talents available at: http://www.manchester-review.org.uk/ 27. Liverpool City Region Employment and Skills Strategy January 2010 Cambridge Policy Consultants 28. Nomis Employment Figures available at :https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/Default.asp 29. Lancashire Profile available at: http://www.lancashire.gov.uk/office_of_the_chief_executive/lancashireprofile/monit ors/lancspop.asp 30. Review of economic and skills knowledge in Lancashire and skills assessments – CLES 2008 31. NWDA Low Carbon Templates 32. North West Regional Priority Statement 2010 – 2011 33. NWDA Manufacturing Strategy 34. Advanced Manufacturing Cluster Report available at: http://www.semta.org.uk/pdf/ADVMFG_FINAL_March2010publish.pdf 35. Skillset Employment Census 2009 available at: http://www.skillset.org/research/activity/census/ 36. Digital Media Skills Programme Overview Paper 37. North West Creative and Media Industries plc 2009 38. Financial Services Skills Council Sector Skills Assessment available at: http://www.fssc.org.uk/england_skills_assessment___fssc.pdf 39. Strategic Skills Needs in the Biomedical Sector UKCES available at: http://www.ukces.org.uk/upload/pdf/UKCES%20Bio- medical%20Main%20Report%20v5a_2.pdf 40. Cogent Sector Analysis available at: http://www.cogent-ssc.com/industry/Pharma/profile.php 41. Skills for Health Sector Skills Assessment available at: http://www.skillsforhealth.org.uk/workforce-design-development/workforce- strategy/skills-labour-market-intelligence/~/media/Resource-Library/PDF/Sector- Skills-Assessment-Full-Report.ashx 42. Skills for Logistics Sector Skills Assessment available (after registration) at: http://www.skillsforlogistics.org/forms/homepage/index.html 43. Skillsmart Retail Regional Background Breif available at: http://www.skillsmartretail.com/NSAR/MediaLibrary/North_West.pdf.pdf 44. People 1st Sector Skills Assessment available at: http://www.people1st.co.uk/research/nations-and-regions/sector-skills-assessments 27 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010) 45. Construction Skills Sector Assessment available at: http://www.cskills.org/uploads/ssareportfull2009_tcm17-17996.pdf 46. Best Practice in Food Manufacturing available at: http://www.nwda.co.uk/news--events/events/2010/manufacturing-food--drink- eve.aspx 47. Improve NW analysis available at: http://www.improve-skills.co.uk/downloads/research_lmi/Regional/NW-2009- template.pdf 48. Improve Sector Skill Skills Assessment for England 49. NWDA Internationalisation Strategy 50. Assessment of the North West Region‟s International Trade Report October 2008 ARUP consulting. 51. The Role of FDI in the North West June 2009 Ekosgen Consulting June 2009 52. NWDA Business Investment and Relocation November 2008 Experian Consulting Impact of Growth in the Green Economy on the future of jobs and skills requirements in the Liverpool City Region, September 2009, DTZ consulting 53. The FSB-ICM „Voice of Small Business‟ Annual Survey February 2010 54. Enterprise Evidence Base, NWRIU 55. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_labour/LM-across-UK-in- recession.pdf 56. Annual Employment Figures – NW Research Conference, ONS 57. YPLA 14-19 Strategic Analysis Draft Documents 58. Asset Skills response to NWDA Draft NW Skills Priorities 2011/12 59. Regional Skills Priorities, North West: E-skills UK comments on the draft version 60. E-Skills UK IT & Telecoms Regional Datasheets – North West 61. Creative & Cultural Skills Regional Skills Priorites: North West 62. Universities UK: „Making an Economic Impact: Higher Education and the English regions 63. Financial Services Skills Council: Skills Bill: Sector Skills Agreement for the Financial Services(England) March 2008 28 North West Regional Skills Priorities Statement 2011/12 (Post 30 July 2010)