Docstoc

SCFI - Index

Document Sample
SCFI - Index Powered By Docstoc
					SCFI 2010                                                                                                                  Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                 ___ of ___
                                                                   Okinawa Aff
Okinawa Aff ................................................................................................................................................... 1
1AC - Inherency............................................................................................................................................. 3
1AC - Relations Advantage (1/2) ................................................................................................................... 4
1AC - Relations Advantage (2/2) ................................................................................................................... 5
1AC - Modernization Advantage (1/6)............................................................................................................ 6
1AC - Modernization Advantage (2/6)............................................................................................................ 7
1AC - Modernization Advantage (3/6)............................................................................................................ 8
1AC - Modernization Advantage (4/6)............................................................................................................ 9
1AC - Modernization Advantage (5/6).......................................................................................................... 10
1AC - Modernization Advantage (6/6).......................................................................................................... 11
1AC - Economy Advantage (1/3) ................................................................................................................. 12
1AC - Economy Advantage (2/3) ................................................................................................................. 13
1AC - Economy Advantage (3/3) ................................................................................................................. 14
1AC - Plan Text ........................................................................................................................................... 15
1AC - Solvency (1/2).................................................................................................................................... 16
1AC - Solvency (2/2).................................................................................................................................... 17
INHERENCY - A2: Status Quo Withdrawal Solves ...................................................................................... 18
INHERENCY - A2: Status Quo Withdrawal Solves ...................................................................................... 19
RELATIONS - Uniqueness .......................................................................................................................... 20
RELATIONS - Uniqueness .......................................................................................................................... 21
RELATIONS - Uniqueness .......................................................................................................................... 22
RELATIONS - Uniqueness .......................................................................................................................... 23
RELATIONS - Relations Good: General ...................................................................................................... 24
RELATIONS - Relations Good: Hegemony ................................................................................................. 25
RELATIONS - Relations Good: Asian Stability ............................................................................................ 26
RELATIONS - Relations Good: China War .................................................................................................. 27
RELATIONS - Solvency............................................................................................................................... 28
ECONOMY - Uniqueness ............................................................................................................................ 29
ECONOMY - Uniqueness ............................................................................................................................ 30
ECONOMY - Link ........................................................................................................................................ 31
ECONOMY - Link ........................................................................................................................................ 32
ECONOMY - Japan k2 Global Economy ..................................................................................................... 33
ECONOMY - Japan k2 US Economy........................................................................................................... 34
A2: T - Presence = Non-Combat ................................................................................................................. 35
A2: Deterrence/Stability DA ......................................................................................................................... 36
A2: Japan Prolif DA ..................................................................................................................................... 37
NEG - Relations Resilient ............................................................................................................................ 38
NEG - Relations Resilient ............................................................................................................................ 39
NEG - Relations Alt Causes ........................................................................................................................ 40
NEG - No F22 Link ...................................................................................................................................... 41
NEG - No F22 Link ...................................................................................................................................... 42
NEG - F22s Impact Defense ........................................................................................................................ 43
NEG - F22s to Japan Bad: Competitiveness ............................................................................................... 44
NEG - F22s Bad: Arms Race ....................................................................................................................... 45
NEG - Economy Up ..................................................................................................................................... 46
NEG - Economy Resilient ............................................................................................................................ 47
                                                   Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                              1
SCFI 2010                                                                                                        Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                      ___ of ___
NEG - Okinawa Good: Stability.................................................................................................................... 48
NEG - Okinawa Good: Stability.................................................................................................................... 49
NEG - Okinawa Good: Deters China ........................................................................................................... 50
NEG - Okinawa Good: Deters China ........................................................................................................... 51
NEG - Politics - Plan Unpopular .................................................................................................................. 52

The 1AC is modular - read whatever advantages you like/have time for.




                                               Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                  2
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                      Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                      ___ of ___
                                                                 1AC - Inherency
OBSERVATION 1: INHERENCY
Troop reduction is inevitable in the status quo, but it doesn't go far enough - current
agreements will leave thousands of troops in Okinawa
Wall Street Journal July 12th Daisuke Wakabayashi and Yuka Hayashi, "Weakened Kan Faces Deadlines on Okinawa," Wall Street Journal,
July 12 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703580104575360660021162180.html

Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan,          badly bruised in Sunday's national elections, soon must turn to the issue of a U.S. military
base on Okinawa—a        politically charged matter that forced the resignation of his predecessor just over a month ago.
The base wasn't a prominent factor in the campaign, but Sunday's results could make it harder for the weakened Mr. Kan to keep the
promises the Japanese government made to the Obama administration. The prime minister told the U.S. he would move forward with the plan,
aimed at keeping a large Marine presence on the southern island.
The first test comes at the end of August: The previous prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama, had promised Washington an agreement with the U.S. on details of the
controversial base location plan, including configuration and construction methods, by then. Mr. Kan has pledged to follow Mr. Hatoyama's commitments on
                                       elections in Okinawa could further lock local politicians into opposing Tokyo's
Okinawa. In the months following that deadline, local
attempts to move the American base to a new community.
The Pentagon declined immediate comment on the vote.
The tensions revolve around a 2006 agreement between the two countries to shuffle U.S. troops in Okinawa to make them more politically acceptable to the local
population. The agreement calls for the U.S. to move 8,000 Marines to Guam by 2014 and to shift part of an existing Okinawa
helicopter facility to a rural part of the island from a densely populated area. The aim is to diminish local hostility to the Marine presence, which has been stoked
by a rape case and a helicopter crash.
While the deal reduces the number of Marines on Okinawa, it leaves thousands there, and it doesn't go far enough for many
Okinawans, who want the base moved off the island entirely. The ruling Democratic Party of Japan had endorsed that view last year and
promised base opponents it would support their cause. But Mr. Hatoyama changed his position under pressure from the U.S.




                                                     Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                    3
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                        Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                           ___ of ___
                                                1AC - Relations Advantage (1/2)
ADVANTAGE (___): Relations
First, disagreement over Okinawa basing threatens the continued strength of the
Japan-US alliance - the Futenma base is the most critical issue
Feffer '10 John Feffer, "Okinawa and the new domino effect," Asia Times, March 6 2010, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/LC06Dh01.html

For a country with a pacifist constitution, Japan is bristling with weaponry. Indeed, that Asian land has long functioned as a huge aircraft carrier and naval base
for United States military power. We couldn't have fought wars in Korea (1950-1953) and Vietnam (1959-1975) without the nearly 90 military bases scattered
around the islands of our major Pacific ally. Even today, Japan remains the anchor of what's left of America's Cold War containment
policy when it comes to China and North Korea. From the Yokota and Kadena air bases, the United States can dispatch troops and bombers across Asia, while
the Yokosuka base near Tokyo is the largest American naval installation outside the United States. You'd think that, with so many Japanese bases, the United
States wouldn't make a big fuss about closing one of them. Think again. The current battle over the US Marine Corps air base at Futenma on
Okinawa - an island prefecture almost 1,600 kilometers south of Tokyo that hosts about three dozen US bases and 75% of American forces in Japan - is just
revving up. In fact, Washington seems ready to stake its reputation and its relationship with a new Japanese government on the fate
of that base alone, which reveals much about US anxieties in the age of President Barack Obama. What makes this so strange, on the surface, is that
Futenma is an obsolete base. Under an agreement the George W Bush administration reached with the previous Japanese government, the US was already
planning to move most of the Marines now at Futenma to the island of Guam. Nonetheless, the Obama administration is insisting, over the protests
of Okinawans and the objections of Tokyo, on completing that agreement by building a new partial replacement base in a less heavily
populated part of Okinawa. The current row between Tokyo and Washington is no mere "Pacific squall", as Newsweek dismissively described it.
After six decades of saying yes to everything the United States has demanded, Japan finally seems on the verge of saying no to something
that matters greatly to Washington, and the relationship that Dwight D Eisenhower once called an "indestructible alliance" is displaying
ever more hairline fractures. Worse yet, from the Pentagon's perspective, Japan's resistance might prove infectious - one major reason why the United
States is putting its alliance on the line over the closing of a single antiquated military base and the building of another of dubious strategic value.




                                                      Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                   4
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                 Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                ___ of ___
                                              1AC - Relations Advantage (2/2)
Scenario A is prolif:
Strong relations are key to continued cooperation that solves Asian proliferation
Nye and Armitage '07 Joseph Nye, Professor at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, and Richard Armitage, Deputy Secretary of State,
"The U.S. Japan Alliance," CSIS, February 2007, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/070216_asia2020.pdf

To address the growing threat of missile proliferation in the region, the United States and Japan have cooperated to
develop missile defense technologies and concepts. The United States and Japan are now in the process of producing
and employing a missile defense system, sharing the technological capabilities of the world‘s two largest economies.
By cooperating on this important venture, Japan will benefit from the synergies resulting from a missile defense command
and control system, improving its joint operational systems and our bilateral ability to quickly share critical information. To produce and employ
missile defense systems successfully together, Japan changed its prohibition on military exports, allowing such
exports to the United States. Through all of these measures, the alliance made rapid progress in defense cooperation
to meet challenges imposed by the existing security environment.


And, that's the most probable scenario for global nuclear war
Cirincione 2k
Joseph Circincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund and former director of nonproliferation and international policy programs at the Center for American
Progress and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, "Multilateralism A La Carte," The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,

The blocks would fall quickest and hardest in Asia, where proliferation pressures are already building more quickly than
anywhere else in the world. If a nuclear breakout takes place in Asia, then the international arms control agreements that have
been painstakingly negotiated over the past 40 years will crumble. Moreover, the United States could find itself embroiled in its fourth war
on the Asian continent in six decades--a costly rebuke to those who seek the safety of Fortress America by hiding behind national missile defenses. Consider
what is already happening: North Korea continues to play guessing games with its nuclear and missile programs; South Korea wants its own missiles to match
Pyongyang's; India and Pakistan shoot across borders while running a slow-motion nuclear arms race; China modernizes its nuclear arsenal amid tensions with
Taiwan and the United States; Japan's vice defense minister is forced to resign after extolling the benefits of nuclear weapons; and Russia--whose Far East
nuclear deployments alone make it the largest Asian nuclear power--struggles to maintain territorial coherence. Five of these states have nuclear weapons; the
others are capable of constructing them. Like neutrons firing from a split atom, one nation's actions can trigger reactions
throughout the region, which in turn, stimulate additional actions. These nations form an interlocking Asian nuclear reaction chain
that vibrates dangerously with each new development. If the frequency and intensity of this reaction cycle increase, critical decisions
taken by any one of these governments could cascade into the second great wave of nuclear-weapon proliferation,
bringing regional and global economic and political instability and, perhaps, the first combat use of a nuclear weapon since
1945.




                                                   Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                              5
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ___ of ___
                                                                     1AC - Modernization Advantage (1/6)
US withdraw causes Japan to purchase F-22’s – they have expressed interest in the
status quo and only current US possession changes our decision calculus
Gertler, Military Aviation at CRS, ‘9 (Jeremiah, December 22, ―Air Force F-22 Fighter Program: Background and Issue for Congress‖
Congressional Research Service)


Japan reportedly would prefer to purchase F-22s as the F-4 replacements, but is considering five other candidate aircraft types as well, particularly if F-22s are not
available: the F-35, an F-15 variant designated the F-15FX, the F/A-18E-F Super Hornet (a strike fighter that has been procured for the U.S. Navy since FY1997), the Eurofighter Typhoon (an aircraft built by European consortium), and the French-made
Dassault Rafale fighter.37 In addition, Boeing, the manufacturer of the F-15, is offering for sale on the international market an upgraded version of the F-15 called the Silent Eagle, which incorporates some added stealth features and other improvements. 38

Secretary of Defense Robert    Gates reportedly recommended the F-35 over the F-22 and other candidates in a meeting with Japan‘s defense minister
on May 1, 2009, but Japan              reportedly still prefers to purchase the F-22. A July 1, 2009, article states: Japan‘s F-15J force, once top of the line, is now ―outclassed by
the new generation of Chinese fighters‖ such as the Su-30MKK, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff U.S. Air Force Gen. Richard Myers (ret.), tells Aviation Week. Moreover, China‘s air defenses, which
                                                     can only be penetrated by the fast, high-flying, stealthy Raptor.
include variants of Russian-made, long-range SA-10s and SA-20 (S-300 family) missiles,

Japan‘s Defense Ministry has studied the problem closely and, at least internally, has produced ―a very impressive tactical
rationale‖ for buying the F-22 if its sale is approved by the U.S. Congress. Myers predicts that any resistance within the U.S. Air Force to selling Raptor
technology to Japan, ―an incredibly staunch ally,‖ will be isolated and not critical. Such considerations are pressing because tensions are growing over Japan‘s far-flung island empire, some of it mineral rich, that
                                                                                                                        Japan feels it must be
stretches to within 125-150 miles of China. That distance, interestingly enough, is the range of the Raptor‘s advanced radar, compared to 56 miles for the F-15.

prepared to defend its area of responsibility from a new generation of regional threats – including China‘s
increasingly sophisticated fighter force, which boasts the J-10 – that can carry its new, small-radar-signature, air-launched cruise missiles. Japan
also needs a precision bombing capability if any of its islands are occupied.39 A July 31, 2009, press report states: Japanese military officials
continue to maintain that only the F-22 Raptor can meet their country‘s pressing defense needs, notwithstanding recent U.S. congressional
action and anti- Raptor rhetoric from the White House and Pentagon that indicate the window of opportunity is closing quickly. The nation‘s requirements were spelled out in an exclusive interview with Aviation Week by Lt. Gen. Hidetoshi Hirata, the Japan Air
Self Defense Force‘s (JASDF) Commander, Southwestern Composite Air Division. While U.S. critics worry about exporting the F-22 as a weapons system, the Japanese focus on other advantages the Raptor offers such as its command and control
capability—like a miniature AWACS—and its intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance role. It also offers higher speed (about half a mach), more altitude (an extra two miles) and better stealth (golf ball vs. marble) than the more exportable F-35 Joint
Strike Fighter. ―Our next fighters [including the F-X and F-XX] are expected to have a couple of critical capabilities to fulfill their mission,‖ Hirata says. ―Networking and ISR are important in the situations and environments where F-X will be operated. It will
need to function ... as a node of the ISR network. That‘s why the F-X needs good sensors, radar, electronic surveillance and communications.‖ Quality over quantity Moreover, since the number of fighters the JASDF can have is limited by the National

                                                                                                                                             this [southwestern
Defense Posture Outline, they have to seek quality to make up for the lack of numbers as surrounding countries are increasing the number of fourth generation fighters they operate in the region. ―Another issue is that

area of Japan] is huge, with lots of small islands,‖ Hirata says. ―Currently we don‘t have enough airfields. This airbase
[on Okinawa] is the only runway that we can operate fighters from. It is difficult to plan how we would use our fighters to defend the nation when many other countries have
advanced fighters, air-launched cruise missiles and other advanced weaponry.‖ ―So [supercruise] speed becomes very important, both to fly great distances quickly and to cope with cruise missiles,‖ Hirata says. ―I understand the current discussions and
Defense Secretary [Robert] Gates‘ announcement regarding the F-22. We still believe we have a chance. It‘s not an officially closed option because the Obey Amendment is reviewed every year. We‘re still thinking about it and taking measures to extend the
F-4‘s operational life.‖ The Japanese do not appear to have any interest in the new, reduced-signature F-15 Silent Eagle that Boeing has designed. ―Personally I have no interest in the Silent Eagle because it is only stealthy from the front,‖ Hirata says,
referencing a limitation shared by the Eurofighter Typhoon. ―I am afraid that the F-15 Silent Eagle is not stealthy enough to meet our requirements. The F-35 is a very good aircraft. The problem is that it‘s still under development [and not ready for operational

                                              F-22 is the only operational fifth generation fighter. We have not made a decision, but right now
use]. A fifth generation fighter is a good choice for our F-X. Right now,

the F-22 is the most attractive.‖40 A September 4, 2009, news report states: Tokyo‘s        new governing Democratic Party of Japan is not
expected to distance itself from the U.S. or to strip defense budgets—in fact, Japanese defense officials are looking at
2010 as the year that the U.S. may change its laws about exporting the F-22 Raptor. Meanwhile, any policy changes in Japan
would likely be minor and reflect the directions set by previous governments. ―We are seeing a transformation in our alliance with the
Japanese,‖ said U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Edward A. Rice, Jr., commander of the 5th Air Force and U.S. Forces Japan, prior to the recent election. ―Part of
that has to do with their internal discussions of what capabilities they need to defend Japan. It involves working as
partners with each accepting some level of risk and each providing capabilities that the other may not have.‖ That
cuts to the thorny issue of Japan‘s long-term desire to buy the F-22 so that its speed, altitude, stealth, precision
bombing and long-range electronic surveillance capabilities could make up for the dearth of Japanese airbases
between Okinawa and China and North Korea. However, the F-22 line may shut down before sales to Japan can be approved. The U.S. is
saying it will ensure that U.S. F-22s are available to defend Japan. The stealth fighters, along with F-15s equipped with advanced, long-
range, small-target radars, are stationed at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, on a rotating basis. But Japanese military officials tell Aviation Week
that they must have positive, immediate control of the F-22 force, which they don‘t think will be possible if the aircraft
belongs to the U.S.—which would doubtlessly require a complicated approval process—instead of the Japan Air Self Defense Force. ―It is very
important for Japan to have that capability in practical and tactical terms,‖ says Lt. Gen. Hidetoshi Hirata, commander of the
Southwest Composite Air Division headquartered in Okinawa, in a conversation with Aviation Week Sept. 3. ―More importantly, it has great meaning in a
strategic [and deterrent] sense. Even the U.S. stationing F-22s in Japan on a regular or permanent basis may not
compensate strategically for [the lack] of Japan‘s possession of the F-22.‖ Rice contends that it may require only a
reformulation of forces to avoid redundancies and minimize gaps in capability between what each country supplies to
the alliance. ―The U.S. has invested in F-22 and it is a capability that we can make available to the alliance,‖ Rice says.
―It‘s not a capability that Japan must possess. There are various ways to get to an all-5th generation force structure.‖ ―The Japanese have a very
clear view of [regional threats] and [unlike the U.S., they] aren‘t hampered in ... their analysis by having a low-tech
war here-and-now that‘s distracting them,‖ says a senior U.S. intelligence official who has studied Japanese issues for many years. ―They‘re right to be concerned, although in the
long term they have less to worry about in North Korea than they think.


                                                                                    Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   6
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                      Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                      ___ of ___
                                          1AC - Modernization Advantage (2/6)
And Japanese complaints of US security guarantees prompt them to sell the F-22
Chanlett-Avery, Analyst in Asian Affairs at the Congressional Research Service, 5/9/08 (Japan‘s Nuclear Future: Policy Debate,
Prospects, and U.S. Interests, CRS Report for Congress, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/08058CRS.pdf)
                             the single most important factor to date in dissuading Tokyo from developing a nuclear
U.S. Security Commitment. Perhaps
arsenal is the U.S. guarantee to protect Japan‘s security. Since the threat of nuclear attack developed during the Cold War, Japan has been
included under the U.S. ―nuclear umbrella,‖ although some ambiguity exists about whether the United States is committed to respond with nuclear weapons in
the event of a nuclear attack on Japan.24 U.S. officials have hinted that it would: following North Korea‘s 2006 nuclear test, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice,
in Tokyo, said, ―...the United States has the will and the capability to meet the full range, and I underscore full range, of its deterrent and security commitments to
Japan.‖25 During the Cold War, the threat of mutually assured destruction to the United States and the Soviet Union created a sort of perverse stability in
international politics; Japan, as the major Pacific front of the U.S. containment strategy, felt confident in U.S. extended deterrence. Although the United States
has reiterated its commitment to defend Japan, the strategic stakes have changed, leading some in Japan to question the American pledge. Some in Japan are
nervous that if the United States develops a closer relationship with China, the gap between Tokyo‘s and Washington‘s security perspectives will grow and
further weaken the U.S. commitment.26 These critics also point to what they perceive as the soft negotiating position on North Korea‘s denuclearization in the
                                                                                weakening of the bilateral alliance
Six-Party Talks as further evidence that the United States does not share Japan‘s strategic perspective.27 A
may strengthen the hand of those that want to explore the possibility of Japan developing its own deterrence. Despite
these concerns, many long-time observers assert that the alliance is fundamentally sound from years of cooperation and strong defense ties throughout even the
rocky trade wars of the 1980s. Perhaps more importantly, China‘s rising stature likely means that the United States will want to keep its military presence in the
region in place, and Japan is the major readiness platform for the U.S. military in East Asia. If the United States continues to see the alliance with Japan as a
                                             leaders may need to continue to not only restate the U.S. commitment to
fundamental component of its presence in the Pacific, U.S.
defend Japan, but to engage in high-level consultation with Japanese leaders in order to allay concerns of alliance
drift. Congressional leaders could face pressure to re-consider allowing the sale of the F-22 Raptor aircraft in order to
bolster trust in the alliance.28




                                                     Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                    7
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                   Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                  ___ of ___
                                         1AC - Modernization Advantage (3/6)
F-22s sales can bolster Japanese deterrence to stave off Chinese escalation – solves
Asian arms race
Fisher, Senior Fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, 09 (Richard, Why the F-22 Matters for Japan, July 4,
http://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.210/pub_detail.asp)
So, are 40 or so very expensive F-22 fighters worth the additional political costs to Japanese of entering a complex Washington battle
                                                                                                            answer is a definite yes.
that divides the Congress and challenges the Obama Administration‘s control of U.S. defense policy? For this analyst the
The F-22 is the only combat aircraft built anywhere that can offer Japan the non-nuclear capability sufficient to deter
China, and perhaps even North Korea. If Japan cannot get the F-22 that will only accelerate the day Japan must make far
more fateful decisions about its security, such as whether to invest in far more powerful offensive weapons, like
nuclear submarines or even nuclear weapons. If Japan could reach a quick agreement on a F-22 sale, they would be
entering Japanese Air Self Defense Force squadrons at about the same time that China will be starting to test its
expected 5th generation fighters. Both of China‘s main fighter companies, the Chengdu and Shenyang Aircraft Corporations are competing to build
China‘s heavy-weight 5th generation fighter, and there remains a good chance that China‘s Air Force will buy both models to sustain industrial capacity. In
addition, there are indicators that China is also working on a medium-weight 5th generation fighter program, perhaps
even similar to the Lockheed Martin F-35. China will also quickly put its 5th generation fighters on its expected
conventional and nuclear powered aircraft carriers. Available open sources indicate that China is investing heavily in the advanced stealth,
engine, radar and electronic technologies needed for 5th generation fighters. China will surely build more than 187 5th generation fighters. So if Secretary Gates
thinks the F-35 would be good for Japan, why should it take the high political risk of seeking the F-22? Simply put, the revolution in high technology
aerial combat capabilities is forcing a revival of the air superiority fighter. Since the 1980s the U.S. has led the way in building
"networked" air forces in which radar and electronic warfare aircraft vastly increased battlespace awareness leading to a reduced need for the fastest and most
maneuverable fighters. Japan has copied the U.S. by investing in expensive aircraft to support its fighters. But advanced
missiles and counter-radar capabilities being developed by Russia and China are creating a real threat to the U.S.
networked warfare paradigm. Their new and future long-range anti-air missiles could quickly take out U.S. and
Japanese long-range sensor aircraft while Chinese anti-satellite weapons threaten vital communication links. This
plus the emergence of Russian and Chinese 5th generation fighters all serves to revive the importance of raw fighter
capability and pilot skill. The U.S. Air Force intended the F-22 and the less expensive F-35 to complement each other. The F-22 was intended to achieve air
superiority so the F-35 could undertake critical attack missions. In terms of raw performance, the F-22 can fly about 25 percent faster, and over 4km higher than
the F-35. The F-22 can also "supercruise," meaning it can fly longer at supersonic speeds without using fuel-guzzling engine afterburners, which gives it a major
advantage. In an air combat scenario in which you lose your electronic support aircraft and communication satellites, you are then relying on the absolute
                                                                                            So it is not an exaggeration
performance of your combat aircraft, so which one would Japan want its pilots to be flying, the best or the second best?
to observe that for Japan, the F-22 could serve as a decisive non-nuclear deterrent against China. If China cannot be
assured of air superiority over the disputed regions of the East China Sea, it will be less tempted to challenge Japan
militarily. This is the bottom line: if Japan can prevent future wars with China by buying the F-22, it will have been well
worth the price.




                                                    Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                               8
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                  Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                 ___ of ___
                                         1AC - Modernization Advantage (4/6)
Asian arms races escalate to nuclear conflict
Cimbala ‘8 (Stephen J.-, March, Comparative Strategy, ―Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia‖, Vol. 27 #2, Informaworld)

The spread of nuclear weapons in Asia presents a complicated mosaic of possibilities in this regard. States with nuclear forces of variable force
structure, operational experience, and command-control systems will be thrown into a matrix of complex political, social, and cultural
crosscurrents contributory to the possibility of war. In addition to the existing nuclear powers in Asia, others may seek
nuclear weapons if they feel threatened by regional rivals or hostile alliances. Containment of nuclear proliferation in Asia is a desirable political
objective for all of the obvious reasons. Nevertheless, the present century is unlikely to see the nuclear hesitancy or risk aversion
that marked the Cold War, in part, because the military and political discipline imposed by the Cold War superpowers no longer
exists, but also because states in Asia have new aspirations for regional or global respect.12 The spread of ballistic missiles
and other nuclear-capable delivery systems in Asia, or in the Middle East with reach into Asia, is especially
dangerous because plausible adversaries live close together and are already engaged in ongoing disputes about territory
or other issues.13 The Cold War Americans and Soviets required missiles and airborne delivery systems of intercontinental range to strike at one another‘s vitals.
But short-range ballistic missiles or fighter-bombers suffice for India and Pakistan to launch attacks at one another with potentially ―strategic‖ effects. China
shares borders with Russia, North Korea, India, and Pakistan; Russia, with China and NorthKorea; India, with Pakistan and China; Pakistan, with India and
China; and so on. The short flight times of ballistic missiles between the cities or military forces of contiguous states means that very
little time will be available for warning and attack assessment by the defender. Conventionally armed missiles could
easily be mistaken for a tactical nuclear first use. Fighter-bombers appearing over the horizon could just as easily be
carrying nuclear weapons as conventional ordnance. In addition to the challenges posed by shorter flight times and uncertain weapons loads,
potential victims of nuclear attack in Asia may also have first strike–vulnerable forces and command-control systems that
increase decision pressures for rapid, and possibly mistaken, retaliation. This potpourri of possibilities challenges
conventional wisdom about nuclear deterrence and proliferation on the part of policymakers and academic theorists. For policymakers in the
United States and NATO, spreading nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction in Asia could profoundly shift the
geopolitics of mass destruction from a European center of gravity (in the twentieth century) to an Asian and/or Middle Eastern center of gravity (in the
present century).14 This would profoundly shake up prognostications to the effect that wars of mass destruction are now
passe, on account of the emergence of the ―Revolution in Military Affairs‖ and its encouragement of information-based warfare.15 Together with this, there has
emerged the argument that large-scale war between states or coalitions of states, as opposed to varieties of unconventional warfare and failed states, are
exceptional and potentially obsolete.16 The   spread of WMD and ballistic missiles in Asia could overturn these expectations.




                                                   Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                               9
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                       Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                       ___ of ___
                                           1AC - Modernization Advantage (5/6)
Independently prevents Chinese modernization and solves China war
Fisher, Senior Fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, ‘9 (Richard, July 19, ―F-22 Fighters for
Japan Could Actually Help Avoid a Worse Arms Race‖ Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jul/19/f-22-fighters-for-japan/)

If Japan's long-standing effort to acquire the Lockheed-Martin F-22 Raptor fifth-generation superfighter falls victim to Washington
power politics, the United States may inadvertently encourage an Asian arms race over which it may have little
control. It is fortunate for the United States that in what may be the last year a deal is possible, Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Daniel K. Inouye
and his supporters have decided to lead an effort to reverse a 1998 law barring foreign sale of the F-22. Through Mr. Inouye's efforts Japan now knows a slightly
degraded export model of the Raptor may take five years to develop and cost about $290 million a plane for about 40, compared to the estimated $150 million
the U.S. Air Force pays. Japan's long-standing quest to obtain the F-22, however, may be shot down amid the intense political struggle over the F-22s very
future. President Obama and Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates have made termination of F-22 production at 187 planes a symbolic goal of their effort to cut
defense spending and reorient U.S. military strategy. This has been challenged recently by the House Armed Services Committee, which approved the
production of 12 more Raptors, and a Senate committee that approved production of seven more. However, the administration immediately threatened a veto,
and the F-22's opponents are working hard to ensure that production ends in 2011 as currently planned. After 2011, the F-22's costs will grow significantly, so
Japan and its U.S. supporters have little time to nail down a deal. However, some U.S. officials have long doubted that Japan can afford to pay for the F-22,
which is why the George W. Bush and Obama administrations have not seriously promoted the F-22 for Japan. Mr. Gates reportedly favors selling Tokyo the
smaller, somewhat less capable and less expensive Lockheed-Martin F-35 Lighting II. While Japan may also purchase the F-35, there are two important reasons
Washington should fully support Japan's goal to acquire the F-22. First, the F-22 will be the only combat aircraft
capable of countering China's expected fifth-generation fighters. Second, selling Japan the Raptor may become a
critical nonnuclear means for Washington to help Japan deter a China on its way to becoming a military superpower
by the 2020s. If Washington cannot provide decisive nonnuclear means to deter China, Japan may more quickly
consider decisive deterrents such as missiles and nuclear weapons. Though the Chinese government says next to nothing and the
U.S. government says very little, what is known about China's fifth-generation fighter program is disturbing. Both of China's fighter manufacturers, the Shenyang
and Chengdu Aircraft corporations, are competing to build a heavy fifth-generation fighter, and there are serious indicators China may be working on a medium-
weight fifth-generation fighter similar to the F-35. China can be expected to put a fifth-generation fighter on its future aircraft carriers, and it can be expected to
build more than 187. Furthermore, China's development of anti-access capabilities such as anti-ship ballistic missiles, its
buildup of nuclear-missile and anti-missile capabilities and space-warfare weapons will increasingly undermine U.S.
strategic guarantees for Japan. China's development of long-range anti-air and surface-to-air missiles also threatens
the electronic support aircraft critical to the "networked" U.S. air-warfare paradigm, meaning that jet fighters could
quickly lose force-multiplying radar aircraft, tankers and communication satellites. As such, Japan is correct to prefer the
F-22, which reportedly can fly 300 to 400 mph faster and two miles higher than the F-35 -- an aircraft optimized for attack, not
air-superiority missions. If Japan is serious about the F-22 and its military security, it will have to pay for both. But if Washington is serious about
sustaining a strategic alliance, it should sell the Raptor to Japan and be prepared to do more as China's military
looms larger.




                                                     Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                  10
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                  Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                 ___ of ___
                                           1AC - Modernization Advantage (6/6)
Chinese modernization causes nuclear war
Fuerth, Shapiro Visiting Fellow at the Elliot School of International Affairs at George Washington University, ‘1 (Leon, Autumn, ―Return of the Nuclear
Debate‖ Washington Quarterly, p 97)
                                                                                                             China may deploy road-mobile ICBMs
As for China, its resources may limit it only to modernization in forms it was already pursuing. In that case ,
that are harder to target, and push forward until it has the technology to MIRV these, to maximize the chance of
overwhelming a U.S. defensive shield. China is, however, a country whose gross domestic product (GDP) grows at about 8 percent a year and
will not lack for means for much longer. Thus, one should not ignore the possibility of a major expansion of Chinese
ballistic missile forces. Meanwhile, the United States will have built into the Chinese political system a deepening
conviction that the United States is an implacable enemy. The United States will therefore be building momentum
toward confrontation that could unleash the nuclear war it was fortunate enough to avoid with the Soviet Union. A
final word about our allies. In the end, faced with an atmosphere of inevitability, and the choice of resisting the United States to the
point of severely damaging alliances, U.S. friends may swallow their objections and acquiesce. If this happens, however, it will be yet
another galling example for the allies of their dependence on the United States and of a style of U.S. leadership they consider both arrogant and reckless. If a
new arms race does materialize, the consequences for relations between the United States and its allies will be
disastrous.




                                                     Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                            11
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                     Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                    ___ of ___
                                               1AC - Economy Advantage (1/3)
ADVANTAGE (____): Economy

Scenario A is Japanese Econ

First, keeping US Military Bases in Japan Creates Tension in Relations and in
Japanese Politics
Baker and Bandow July 19th withXinhua News Agency, 2010 (Rodger Baker is the director of East Asia Analysis at Global Intelligence in
Stratford. Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the CATO Institute. ―News Analysis: U.S. military presence to remain thorn in relations with Japan: experts‖ July 9th
2010 http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/4295520)
The U.S. military presence in Japan will remain a long term source of consternation between the two allies, in spite of a
recent easing of tensions, some experts said. "All   you need is another rape case and it comes up as a high profile issue," said
Rodger Baker, director of East Asia analysis at global intelligence company Stratfor. Residents of Okinawa, a Japanese
island that hosts about two-thirds of Japan's 40,000 U.S. troops, still recall the 1995 case in which three U.S. servicemen kidnapped
and raped a 12-year-old Japanese girl. They continue to complain about noise from overhead U.S. aircraft and the
island has seen mass demonstrations calling for U.S. forces to leave. Last year, then Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama
sparked a row when he called for a "partnership of equals" in a relationship dominated by Washington since the end
of World War II. When the dust cleared, Hatoyama resigned because of a broken campaign promise to shutter Futenma, a
U.S. air base located in Okinawa. The relationship underwent a public reset at the recent G20 summit in Toronto. Japan's new Prime Minister Naoto
Kan pledged he will stick to a previous agreement with Washington to move Futenma to the north of the island, even
though Okinawans want the base gone altogether. U.S. President Barack Obama responded that he understands the delicacy of the matter
and that he would strive to make the U.S. military presence more palatable to Tokyo. Still, analysts said the problem is not going away.


And, political instability causes economic decline
Ali '01 (Abdiweli Ali, Assistant Professor of Economics At Niagra University. ―Political Instability, Political Uncertainty, and Economic Growth: An Empirical
Investigration.‖ March 2001)
Other studies claim that political instability affects growth indirectly through its effect on the accumulation of physical
capital [Benhabib and Spiegel, 1992; Alesina and Perotti, 1993; Benhabib and Rustichini, 1996]. These studies find that the incentives to
invest or disinvest depend on the likelihood that the policies of the regime and the regime itself will remain stable in the
foreseeable future. Foreign investors are unlikely to commit their capital into unstable political environments. Thus,
political instability reduces the inflow of foreign capital because of the uncertainties associated with constantly
changing regimes. Further studies contend that political instability restricts growth, leading to suboptimal economic
policies. This line of research suggests that political instability leads to inefficient and myopic policy decisions by incumbent political regimes [Alesina and ALI:
POLITICAL INSTABILITY 89 Tabellini, 1989; Glazer, 1989; Perrson and Svensson, 1989; Tabellini and Alesina, 1990; Bestley and Coate, 1998]. For example,
given an expected short term in office, incumbent regimes maximize the rents at their disposal by taxing productive capital, thereby inducing huge capital flights.
Alesina and Tabellini [1989] also argue that frequent political turnover creates an incentive for incumbent regimes with short-term horizons to borrow heavily and
encumber future governments with the burden of debt repayment.2




                                                     Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                               12
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                     Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                     ___ of ___
                                               1AC - Economy Advantage (2/3)
And, Japan’s Economic Collapse will bring in major powers leading to global conflict
Overholt '02 (William H. Overholt WILLIAM H. OVERHOLT is a Fellow at Harvard University's Asia Center. He has served as Chief Economist and Asia
Strategist for three major investment banks based in Hong Kong and Singapore and is the author of The Rise of China. ―Japan's Economy, at War with Itself.‖
Foreign Affairs, Vol. 81, No. 1 (Jan. - Feb., 2002), pp. 134-147 Published by: Council on Foreign Relations).

Fortunately, the changes have already begun-although there is no guarantee that the moderate reforms undertaken by Koizumi will succeed. Moreover, even in
the economic sphere, Koizumi's proposals have been too modest. For example, he has demanded that Japan's banks deal with Yli.7 trillion ($97.5 billion) of the
bad loans on their books-but most analysts think that the real figure is much higher, between YiSo trillion ($1.25 trillion) and Y240 trillion ($2 trillion). And even
Koizumi's modest proposals have been resisted by the prime minister's LDP colleagues. Nevertheless, as politically dangerous as it may be for Koizumi to
push for more change, to delay would be even worse. If Tokyo procrastinates for several more years, it could well find itself in a crisis similar to that which
engulfed Weimar Germany. And if Japan's Economy collapses under the weight of its debt, neighboring countries and even major
American and European firms may be swept up in the ensuing storm of defaults, inflation, and currency collapse.
Given that so many Japanese assets are now located in the United States, the impact there could be particularly
severe. And within Japan, such a crisis might bring to power repressive demagogues such as the xenophobic Ishihara,
which could lead to nasty conflicts with the two Koreas, the United States, or China. The whole world, then, has a
stake in Japan's economic health and therefore in its reform. Fortunately, although Koizumi's measures have so far been inadequate to avert a
crisis, Japan still has major advantages. It is an extremely well-educated society and enough of a democracy that the restive public may yet manage to pressure
the government into undertaking serious reform. If it does, Japan's prospects could once again brighten; the country has everything necessary to trounce its
competitors except for the sense of urgency that has allowed South Korea and China to threaten its dominance in recent years.




                                                     Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                13
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                       Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                       ___ of ___
                                                1AC - Economy Advantage (3/3)
Scenario B is US Econ:

If they fail we fail, US Economy directly linked to Japan
Buerk July 12th By Roland Buerk: BBC News, Tokyo                  12 July 2010 Last updated at 02:11 ET < http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10594674>
Opinion is divided about the threat posed by the country's debt. Many feel Mr Kan's warnings of an impending crisis may have gone too
far because 95% of the government's bonds are held by Japanese savers and institutions. Some fear Japan is failing to
tackle problems caused by its aging society They are much less likely to cut and run than the foreign creditors to which many other countries
owe money. But doom-mongers argue that as Japan's population continues to age the savings rate is likely to decline further,
forcing Japan eventually to borrow more from abroad. The higher interest rates demanded could make servicing the
debt unsustainable, tipping the country into the abyss. What is not in doubt is if the crunch comes it would dwarf the problems posed by
Greece. Japan is the world's second biggest economy, and in a crisis could be expected to draw in its resources,
massive corporate investment abroad and a huge stake in the debt of the US government.

And, the US is needed to keep the global economy on track and prevent war
Mead '09 (Walter Mead- Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy in the Council on Foreign Relations. ―Only Makes You Stronger,‖ February 4
2009. http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2 AD 6/30/09)

Frequently, the crisis has weakened the power of the merchants, industrialists, financiers, and professionals who want to develop a liberal capitalist society
integrated into the world. Crisis can also strengthen the hand of religious extremists, populist radicals, or authoritarian traditionalists who are determined to resist
liberal capitalist society for a variety of reasons. Meanwhile, the companies and banks based in these societies are often less established and more vulnerable to
the consequences of a financial crisis than more established firms in wealthier societies. As a result, developing countries and countries where capitalism has
relatively recent and shallow roots tend to suffer greater economic and political damage when crisis strikes--as, inevitably, it does. And, consequently,
financial crises often reinforce rather than challenge the global distribution of power and wealth. This may be
happening yet again. None of which means that we can just sit back and enjoy the recession. History may suggest that
financial crises actually help capitalist great powers maintain their leads--but it has other, less reassuring messages as well. If financial crises have
been a normal part of life during the 300-year rise of the liberal capitalist system under the Anglophone powers, so has war. The wars of the League
of Augsburg and the Spanish Succession; the Seven Years War; the American Revolution; the Napoleonic Wars; the two World Wars; the cold war: The list of
                                              economic times can breed wars. Europe was a pretty peaceful place in 1928, but the
wars is almost as long as the list of financial crises. Bad
                                                                  the current crisis turns into a depression, what rough
Depression poisoned German public opinion and helped bring Adolf Hitler to power. If
beasts might start slouching toward Moscow, Karachi, Beijing, or New Delhi to be born? The United States may not,
yet, decline, but, if we can't get the world economy back on track, we may still have to fight.




                                                     Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                  14
SCFI 2010                                                      Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                          ___ of ___
                                1AC - Plan Text
Thus, the plan:
The United States federal government should remove its military presence from
Okinawa.




                          Because mothers know best
                                                                                15
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                 Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                ___ of ___
                                                          1AC - Solvency (1/2)
OBSERVATION 2: SOLVENCY

Withdrawal from Okinawa solves - shifting security responsibility to Japan makes the
alliance more sustainable and causes cooperation that spills over to broader issues
Bandow March 25th Doug Bandow, Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute, former Special Assistant to Ronald Reagan and Senior Policy Analyst in the
Reagan Campaign, JD from Stanford, "Okinawa and the Problem of Empire," The Huffington Post, March 25 2010,
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11617

The Japanese government needs to assess future dangers and decide on appropriate responses — without
assuming that the U.S. Marines will show up to the rescue. It is Japan's decision, but it should not be based on the presumption of
American intervention. Having made its decision, then Tokyo should reconfigure its forces. Fairness suggests a major drawdown from Okinawa irrespective of
                             the U.S. disengaged militarily, these decisions could be made without pressure from
whose military is protecting Japan. If
Washington. The two countries would still have much to cooperate about, including security. Leaving responsibility
for Japan's defense with Tokyo would simply eliminate the unrealistic expectations engendered by the alliance on
both sides. The governments could focus on issues of mutual interest, sharing intelligence, preparing emergency base access, and
otherwise cooperating to meet international challenges. The best way for Americans to help residents of Okinawa is to press Washington to
reshape U.S. foreign policy, making it more appropriate for a republic than a pseudo-empire. With the rise of numerous prosperous allied and friendly states —
most notably Japan, but also South Korea, Australia, India, and others — the U.S. should step back, prepared to deal with an aggressive hegemon should one
                                                                                  chart its own destiny, including deciding
arise but determined to avoid being dragged into routine geopolitical squabbles. Then Tokyo could
what forces to raise and where to base them. The Japanese government could no longer use American pressure as an excuse for inaction in
Okinawa. Then Okinawans finally might gain justice — after 65 long years.




                                                   Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                           16
SCFI 2010                                                                                                             Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                           ___ of ___
                                                         1AC - Solvency (2/2)
And, there's no negative impact to troop withdrawal - Okinawa basing serves no
strategic purpose
Bandow March 25th Doug Bandow, Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute, former Special Assistant to Ronald Reagan and Senior Policy Analyst in the
Reagan Campaign, JD from Stanford, "Okinawa and the Problem of Empire," The Huffington Post, March 25 2010,
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11617

If the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force located on Okinawa is not needed to defend Japan, then what is it for? South         Korea vastly outranges the
North on virtually every measure of power and can do whatever is necessary to deter North Korean adventurism. There also
is much talk, offered unceasingly and uncritically, about maintaining regional stability. But what invasions, border fights, naval clashes, missile
threats, and full-scale wars are the Marines preventing? And if conflict broke out, what would the Marines do? Launch
a surprise landing in Beijing's Tiananmen Square during a war over Taiwan? Aid Indonesia, really the Javan Empire, in suppressing one or
another group of secessionists? Help Thailand in a scrape with Burma triggered by the latter's guerrilla conflict spilling over the border? America has no
reason to enter conflicts which threaten neither the U.S. nor a critical ally.




                                                  Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                     17
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                     Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                    ___ of ___
                             INHERENCY - A2: Status Quo Withdrawal Solves
Domestic politics complicate status quo agreements - Japan's prime minister doesn't
have the political credibility to ensure Okinawan cooperation - US action is key
Allen and Sumida July 14th
David Allen and Chiyomi Sumida, "Japan election could impede Futenma progress," Stars and Stripes, July 14 2010, http://www.stripes.com/news/japan-
election-could-impede-futenma-progress-1.110973

The poor showing of Japan‘s ruling party in Upper House elections Sunday could hamper any progress in closing the
Marine air base that sits in the middle of this city of 90,000, experts say.
Although the U.S. and Japan in May reaffirmed a 2006 plan to close Marine Corps Air Station Futenma and move air operations to a new facility on Okinawa‘s
northeast shore, Prime Minister Naoto Kan and his Democratic Party of Japan may be too weak to act assertively on the controversial
move, regional experts say. Most Okinawans are against the 2006 agreement and the implementation of that pact could be stalled by Okinawa‘s next governor.
―Futenma is a scab that they would not want to pick,‖ said Masaaki Gabe, professor of International Relations and director of the Institute of International
Okinawa Studies at the University of the Ryukyus.
Kan will try to stay away from the issue as much as possible, Gabe said, pointing out that the party‘s inability to keep a campaign promise
made last summer to move the Marines outside Okinawa soured islanders so much that the party did not run an Okinawan candidate in the recent election.
Some U.S. experts on Japanese politics concur.
―The Japanese are going to be embroiled in their own domestic politics for a while,‖ Dan Sneider, a Japan expert at Stanford
University told Kyodo News Tuesday.
―Kan and the DPJ‘s ability to overcome opposition in Okinawa is going to be impacted by their weakening on the national level,‖ Sneider said. ―The weaker
the government is in Tokyo, the less able it is to strong arm the Okinawans.‖
Jeffrey Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University in Tokyo, also doubted there will be much progress on the Futenma issue, even though the two
sides agreed in May that construction details were to be worked out in August prior to a meeting by the U.S. and Japan defense and foreign ministers in the fall.
―Kan agreed to go forward with the 2006 plan, but will the Okinawans let him? Anger is high there,‖ Kingston told Stars and Stripes. ―This issue is not going to
die. The Okinawans are promising to disrupt construction of any offshore runway. It‘s definitely going to be a problem for Kan.‖
The election for Okinawa governor is in November. Whoever‘s elected will have the power to delay — if not quash —
the Futenma relocation project because the governor must sign off on any construction that would affect the island‘s waters. The current air facility
plan calls for runways to stretch from the lower part of Camp Schwab onto a landfill in Oura Bay.
―The outcome of the election weakened the capacities of the Kan administration,‖ said Kazuya Sakamoto, professor of Japan and
U.S. relations at Osaka University‘s Graduate School of Law and Politics.




                                                    Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                               18
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                      Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                      ___ of ___
                             INHERENCY - A2: Status Quo Withdrawal Solves
Troop transfer is delayed in the status quo
Japan Today June 1st " Marines' move to Guam from Okinawa may be delayed up to 5 years," Japan Today, June 1 2010,
http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/marines-move-to-guam-from-okinawa-may-be-delayed-up-to-5-years

Japan and the United States have begun considering postponing the planned transfer of about 8,000 U.S. Marines from
Okinawa to Guam to be completed three to five years later than the originally scheduled 2014, sources close to Japanese-U.S.
ties said Monday. The delay has come to be envisioned as the U.S. government is planning to compile an infrastructure plan worth
several billion dollars at maximum for the Pacific island in July to address the shortage of infrastructure there, according to the sources and a U.S. official.
The two countries have agreed that the transfer of the Okinawa-based Marines and their family members to the U.S. territory is ‗‗dependent on tangible progress‘‘
on relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps‘ Futenma Air Station to another site in Okinawa Prefecture. A significant delay in the transfer, should it
materialize, could affect the replacement facility‘s location, configuration and construction method , which the two countries said in
their latest accord released Friday would be worked out by the end of August. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency pointed out in February that the island‘s
infrastructure cannot keep up with a rapid population increase likely to be caused by the Marine transfer, an agency official in charge of the matter said. The EPA
and the U.S. Defense Department recently agreed in principle on concrete measures to address the lack of infrastructure on the island concerning potable water
and sewage there. The measures include one to curtail an inflow of people from outside the island, one of the sources close to bilateral ties said. The new
infrastructure plan would be compiled in July after working out details, including how to finance it. While the plan would be compiled on the premise that the
infrastructure shortage should be addressed by 2014, another source close to the ties said it would be difficult for U.S. Congress to earmark
enough funds by 2014 given a strain on U.S. finances and a likely delay in facility construction on Guam amid strong calls
on the island‘s part for postponing the Marine transfer. In a document submitted to the Defense Department in February, the EPA pointed out that as many as
79,000 people would come to Guam as workers to build military facilities in connection with the Marine transfer. That is roughly a 45% increase from the current
population of about 180,000. The agency criticized a draft environmental assessment submitted by the department last November as predicting an increase of
only 23,000 people as a result of the Marine transfer project. Guam Gov Felix Camacho, while accepting the Marine transfer from Okinawa, has called for an
extension in completing the transfer out of concern over the impact it would have on people‘s lives due to a lack of infrastructure on the island. The Marines‘
transfer from Okinawa to Guam is a pillar of the bilateral agreement forged in 2006 to realign U.S. forces in Japan.
Another is the controversial relocation of Futenma from the middle of an urban area to a coastal area of the Marines‘ Camp Schwab in
Nago, where the latest bilateral agreement says a new facility would be built ‗‗without significant delay.‘‗ Both are designed to reduce the base-hosting burdens
on the people of Okinawa, which shoulders roughly 75% of U.S. military facilities in Japan, while constituting just 0.6% of total Japanese land area. Under a
bilateral treaty signed in February last year under the previous government, Japan is to shoulder roughly $6.09 billion, including loans, in facilitating the Marine
transfer to Guam, while the United States is to shoulder roughly $4.18 billion




                                                     Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                 19
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                   Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                  ___ of ___
                                                     RELATIONS - Uniqueness
Relations are on the brink now - tensions have risen over the Futenma base
Chanlett-Avery et al. '09 Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs, William H. Cooper, Specialist in International Trade and Finance, Mark
E. Manyin, Specialist in Asian Affairs, and Weston S. Konishi, Analyst in Asian Affairs, "Japan-U.S. Relations: Issues for Congress," Congressional Research
Service, November 25 2009

U.S.-Japan relations have been adjusting to the Democratic Party of Japan‘s (DPJ) landslide victory in the August 30, 2009 elections for
the Lower House of Japan‘s legislature. The victory gave the DPJ, under party president Yukio Hatoyama, control of the government. While most members of the
left-of-center DPJ are broadly supportive of the U.S.-Japan alliance and the general thrust of Japanese foreign policy, in the past the party has
questioned and/or voted against several features of the alliance, including base realignment and Japan‘s financial payments for
U.S. forces stationed in Japan. The Party has put forward a foreign policy vision that envisions greater ―equality‖ in Japan‘s
relations with the United States, in part through deeper engagement with Asia and a more United Nations-oriented diplomacy. The DPJ‘s victory
appears to mark the end of an era in Japan; it was the first time Japan‘s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was voted out of office. The LDP has ruled Japan
                                                       tensions have arisen over the desire of some Hatoyama government members
virtually uninterrupted since 1955. Since the DPJ victory, bilateral
to alter a 2006 U.S.-Japan agreement to relocate the controversial Futenma Marine Air Station to a less densely populated location in
Okinawa. The move is to be the first part of a planned realignment of U.S. forces in Asia, designed in part to reduce the footprint of U.S. forces on Okinawa by
redeploying 8,000 U.S. Marines and their dependents to new facilities in Guam. The Hatoyama government has decided to withdraw Japan‘s naval deployment
in the Indian Ocean that has been providing non-combat support to U.S. and allied forces in Afghanistan. Instead, Tokyo has announced a new, five-year, $5
billion aid package for Afghanistan. Hatoyama has raised some concerns in the United States with his call for the longterm formation of an ―East Asian
Community,‖ which some Japanese have indicated should not include the United States.




                                                   Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                            20
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                         Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                         ___ of ___
                                                       RELATIONS - Uniqueness
Okinawa is key - the Futenma base is literally the most critical issue in US-Japan
relations
Chanlett-Avery et al. '09 Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs, William H. Cooper, Specialist in International Trade and Finance, Mark
E. Manyin, Specialist in Asian Affairs, and Weston S. Konishi, Analyst in Asian Affairs, "Japan-U.S. Relations: Issues for Congress," Congressional Research
Service, November 25 2009

The most problematic bilateral issue that has surfaced since the Hatoyama Cabinet was inaugurated has been the fate of a 2006 U.S.-
Japan agreement to relocate the controversial Futenma Marine Air Station to a less densely populated location in Okinawa. The move is the first part
of a planned realignment of U.S. forces in Japan, designed in large measure to reduce the footprint of U.S. forces on the island by redeploying 8,000 U.S.
Marines and their dependents to new facilities in Guam. While in the opposition, the DPJ opposed the realignment plans. Since coming into power,
splits have publicly surfaced among Hatoyama‘s Cabinet, with some calling for major revisions to the Futenma plan while others have
essentially backing the existing plan. The government appears to have dropped the DPJ‘s campaign calls for the Futenma airbase to be removed to a location
―outside‖ of Okinawa altogether. In a visit to Japan in October 2009, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates appeared to send a clear signal of the
Obama Administration‘s displeasure. He declined a customary salute from a guard of honor and in a joint press conference with Defense Minister
Toshimi Kitazawa used language considered unusually blunt for a diplomatic meeting: Without the Futenma realignment, the Futenma facility, there will be no
relocation to Guam. And without relocation to Guam, there will be no consolidation of forces and the return of land in Okinawa. Our view is this may not be the
perfect alternative for anyone, but it is the best alternative for everyone, and it is time to move on....We have investigated all of the alternatives in great detail and
believe that they are both politically untenable and operationally unworkable.3 On the eve of President Obama‘s November 13-14 visit to Japan (discussed
                                                                                                     by Obama and
below), the two countries agreed to set up a high-level working group to resolve the issue ―expeditiously.‖ However, statements
Hatoyama appeared to indicate differences over the working group‘s purpose, with Obama stating it ―will focus on implementation of
the [2006] agreement‖ while Hatoyama reportedly has said that the Futenma relocation plan should be reviewed from scratch.




                                                      Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                    21
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                   Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                  ___ of ___
                                                     RELATIONS - Uniqueness
Status quo agreements to keep the base are causing massive tensions in Okinawa -
spills over to damage US/Japan relations
AP 2010 (Tokyo, May 23.‖Japan Keeps US Base on Okinawa, Citizens Angry‖ http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/05/23/world/main6512191.shtm)

Okinawans were outraged Sunday that Japan's prime minister reneged on his campaign pledge to move a U.S. military
base off their island, a decision that upholds a longstanding agreement with Washington. Protesters held signs plastered with the Japanese character for
"anger" as Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama visited the Okinawa prefectural (state) office. His broken promise over Okinawa deepens political
confusion just weeks ahead of nationwide elections. The southern semitropical island is important to the U.S. military because it is near China, Taiwan and
the Korean peninsula, where tensions have risen sharply after North Korea was blamed last week for the sinking of a South Korean warship. The
people of Okinawa have long complained about the noise, jet-crash dangers and crime worries that come from housing
more than half of the 47,000 U.S. troops in Japan, stationed under the bilateral defense alliance. The U.S. and Japan agreed in 2006 to move the
U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station to a less crowded part of Okinawa, and Washington has insisted that Japan hold to the deal. U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Rodham Clinton said Friday on a visit to Tokyo that Japan and the U.S. were seeking to resolve thedispute by the end of May - a deadline set by
Hatoyama. On his Okinawa visit, the prime minister apologized for failing to make good on his promise to move the U.S. air base off the island, perhaps even out
of Japan. "I apologize from the bottom of my heart for the confusion that I have caused the people of Okinawa," he said. Prefectural chief Hirokazu
Nakaima said Hatoyama had raised the residents' hopes. "The way he has dashed our hopes is such a disappointment. We need a
solution to be worked out," he said. His concession restores the plan chiseled by the former governing party, or one similar to it: an Okinawa base in a coastal
area less crowded than the residential sector where Futenma is now. Japanese media reported Henoko, the coastal area chosen in 2006, will house the new
base, but the plan lacked further details. Government offices were closed over the weekend, and officials were not available for comment. The prime
minister's popularity has plunged as voters increasingly are disenchanted with his failure to act on a number of campaign pledges, including
the Futenma move, as well as promises for toll-free highways and cash payments for babies. Nicknamed "space alien" by the public, Hatoyama basked in nearly
unanimous popularity at the start but now is even lambasted for his taste in gaudy shirts, including a checkered one he wore to a recent party. He wore a pale
blue shirt without a tie to Okinawa. After Clinton's talks with Japanese officials, U.S. officials said they were hopeful an agreement could be reached quickly as
the Japanese position had shifted. One reason for the change was the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, which an international investigation
concluded was caused by a North Korea-fired torpedo. That underscored serious security challenges in the region and the importance of the U.S. military
presence, the U.S. officials said. Hatoyama had pursued other alternatives, including moving some of the base functions to another southern Japanese island.
But no one wanted it, and other options were impractical, raising questions on whether Hatoyama ever had much of a real plan when he had made his promise.
The failure to appease the people of Okinawa is likely to be Hatoyama's biggest problem as Japan heads into elections, which must be held sometime in or
around July. Minoru Morita, who has written several books on Japanese politics, says the recent problems highlight the immaturity of the Democratic leaders,
who seized power after near-constant rule by the Liberal Democrats since World War II. "The Okinawan people are outraged. They feel Hatoyama
betrayed them," Morita said. "The Democrats didn't think through what they could change and what they couldn't change. The base issue is an international
agreement. They are ignorant and irrational." Analyst and politics expert Eiken Itagaki was more sympathetic, noting that Hatoyama was the first prime
minister to start an ambitious effort to reduce the U.S. military presence in Japan. "This is the first step, maybe just half a step," he told
The Associated Press. "Although it did not result in change yet, it got the Japanese people thinking about the base problem." Morita and Itagaki both
forecast divisive balloting for the upper house of Parliament, with splinter groups breaking off from both the Democrats and the Liberal Democrats, setting off
continued political chaos in Japan. Okinawa was the site of one of the bloodiest battlefields of World War II and was occupied by the U.S. before being returned
to Japan in 1972. Residents have felt they have been treated like second-class citizens by both countries. "How would you feel if
someone told you that a military base was coming to your neighborhood?" asked cab driver Yukinori Uehara in a telephone interview. "If you aren't in Okinawa,
you can't really understand how we in Okinawa feel."




                                                    Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                             22
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                     Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                        ___ of ___
                                                      RELATIONS - Uniqueness
Keeping US Military Bases in Japan Creates Tension in Relations and in Japanese
Politics
Baker, Bandow and Xinhua News Agency, 2010 (Rodger Baker is the director of East Asia Analysis at Global Intelligence in Stratford. Doug Bandow
is a senior fellow at the CATO Institute. ―News Analysis: U.S. military presence to remain thorn in relations with Japan: experts‖
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/4295520)
The U.S. military presence in Japan will remain a long term source of consternation between the two allies, in spite of a
recent easing of tensions, some experts said. "All you need is another rape case and it comes up as a high profile issue," said
Rodger Baker, director of East Asia analysis at global intelligence company Stratfor. Residents of Okinawa, a Japanese
island that hosts about two-thirds of Japan's 40,000 U.S. troops, still recall the 1995 case in which three U.S. servicemen kidnapped
and raped a 12-year-old Japanese girl. They continue to complain about noise from overhead U.S. aircraft and the
island has seen mass demonstrations calling for U.S. forces to leave. Last year, then Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama
sparked a row when he called for a "partnership of equals" in a relationship dominated by Washington since the end
of World War II. When the dust cleared, Hatoyama resigned because of a broken campaign promise to shutter Futenma, a
U.S. air base located in Okinawa. The relationship underwent a public reset at the recent G20 summit in Toronto. Japan's new Prime Minister Naoto
Kan pledged he will stick to a previous agreement with Washington to move Futenma to the north of the island, even
though Okinawans want the base gone altogether. U.S. President Barack Obama responded that he understands the delicacy of the matter
and that he would strive to make the U.S. military presence more palatable to Tokyo. Still, analysts said the problem is not going away.




                                                    Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                              23
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                        Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                         ___ of ___
                                         RELATIONS - Relations Good: General
Strong relations with Japan solve multiple scenarios for nuclear conflict in Asia
NDU 2k
National Defense University, "The United States and Japan: Advancing Toward a Mature Partnership," Institute for National Strategic Studies, October 11 2000,
http://www.ne.jp/asahi/nozaki/peace/...a_inss_sr.html

Major war in Europe is inconceivable for at least a generation, but the prospects       for conflict in Asia are far from remote. The region
features some of the world‘s largest and most modern armies, nuclear-armed major powers, and several nuclear-capable
states. Hostilities that could directly involve the United States in a major conflict could occur at a moment notice on the Korean peninsula and in the Taiwan
Strait. The Indian subcontinent is a major flashpoint. In each area, war has the potential of nuclear escalation. In addition, lingering turmoil in
Indonesia, the world‘s fourth-largest nation, threatens stability in Southeast Asia. The United States is tied to the region by a series of bilateral security alliances
                                                                                                    U.S.-Japan bilateral relationship
that remain the region‘s de facto security architecture. In this promising but also potentially dangerous setting, the
is more important than ever. With the world second-largest economy and a well-equipped and competent military, and as our democratic ally, Japan
remains the keystone of the U.S. involvement in Asia. The U.S.-Japan alliance is central to America‘s global security
strategy.




                                                      Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                    24
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                        Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                        ___ of ___
                                     RELATIONS - Relations Good: Hegemony
Strong relations are key to continued American hegemony
Calder 09
Kent E. Calder, Director of the Resichauer Center for East Asian Studies at SAIS, "Pacific Alliance," 2009,

Japan contributes directly to U.S. military preeminence, both by providing bases for U.S. forces and by supplying substantial levels of host-
nation support—well over $4 billion annually.7 Even more important, Tokyo quite consistently supports the role of the U.S. dollar as a
global reserve currency and generally acts to stabilize its exchange-rate value. This "exorbitant privilege," as Charles de
Gaulle once put it, of providing the global key currency allows the United States an autonomy from fiscal constraints on its
military deployments available to no other nation. It allowed the Reagan administration to accelerate military spending
in the 1980s, despite rising fiscal deficits, so as to force the collapse of the Soviet Union. It also afforded George W. Bush the
leeway two decades later of flexibly pursuing the Iraq War. The Japanese financial contribution to the bilateral alliance is, of course, a
function of Tokyo's capital surpluses and capital exports. These began to accumulate in earnest during the early 1980s, with the relaxation of Japanese capital
controls, and keep growing to this day. Japanese transactions within the United States in domestic and foreign securities swelled from $6.6 billion in 1980 to
$130.6 billion in 1985 and to $1.1 trillion in 1989, before dropping by half in 1992. Japanese purchases picked back up, however, to $1.2 trillion in 2007.8 Such
flows continue to enhance American fiscal flexibility, including the critical strategic ability to raise military spending when circumstances demand. International
foreign-exchange market instability, including a sharp revaluation of the yen or other foreign currencies, could obviously disrupt such flows and thus constrain
                                                          in the global political economy generate important new rationales
American strategic flexibility. For Japan, roo, ongoing changes
for the transpacific alliance. Japan, after all, is a middle-range power, lacking strategic depth, which finds benefit in
alignment with a larger power in world affairs. Japan is also an island nation, for whom alignment with a preeminent global naval power has
particular attraction. That was the logic underlying the Anglo-Japanese naval treaty of 1902, and it still has some parallel relevance today. The United States and
Japan are natural geostrategic allies, in the view of many.9

And, hegemony solves nuclear war
Khalilzad ‘95
Zalmay Khalilzad, director of the Strategy, Doctrine, and Force Structure at the RAND Corporation, ―Losing the moment? The United States and the world after
the Cold War,‖ The Washington Quarterly, 1995

Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the
                                                                                                                                    world in
indefinite future. On balance, this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself, but because a
which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First, the global environment would be more
open and more receptive to American values -- democracy, free markets, and the rule of law. Second, such a world would have a better chance
of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems, such as nuclear proliferation, threats of regional hegemony
by renegade states, and low-level conflicts. Finally, U.S. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile
global rival, enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant
dangers, including a global nuclear exchange. U.S. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a
multipolar balance of power system.




                                                      Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                   25
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                     Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                     ___ of ___
                                RELATIONS - Relations Good: Asian Stability
Relations solve Asian stability through balancing and dialogue
Schoff '09
James L. Schoff, Associate Director of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, ―Realigning Priorities: The U.S.-Japan Alliance & the
Future of Extended Deterrence,‖ Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, March 2009, accessed 8/19/09 http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/RealignPriorities.pdf

Whatever the Obama administration decides regarding these programs and initiatives, the important point for the United States is to engage Japan proactively to
keep allied confidence strong, because the alliance delivers value for many in multiple ways. The alliance helps to suppress regional
competition and plays a vital stabilizing role. It is a catalyst for regional security cooperation involving different
partners, and it fosters other forms of diplomatic and economic cooperation around the world. Moreover, a reassured
Japan can engage China more comfortably and forthrightly, and it can facilitate a productive U.S.-China dialogue as well,
since U.S. officials can worry less about how their overtures to Beijing for stronger cooperative ties reverberate in
Tokyo. More frequent and substantive cooperation amongst these three countries will have a significant positive
impact on regional stability and prosperity.




                                                    Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                  26
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                                                                         Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                                                                                 ___ of ___
                                                    RELATIONS - Relations Good: China War
Strong relations are key to deter conflict with China over Taiwan
Okamoto '02
Yukio Okamoto, special advisor to the cabinet and chairman of the Japanese prime minister's Task Force on Foreign Relations, The Washington Quarterly,
Spring 2002, http://www.twq.com/02spring/okamoto.pdf

                                                                                           for concern exists on one issue: the resolution
Regardless of whether China's development take the bright path or the fearful one, however, reason
of the status of Taiwan. Chinese citizens from all walks of life have an attachment to the reunification of Taiwan and the
mainland that transcends reason. The U.S.-Japan alliance represents a significant hope for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan
problem. Both Japan and the United States have clearly stated that they oppose reunification by force. When China
conducted provocative missile tests in the waters around Taiwan in 1996, the United States sent two aircraft carrier groups into
nearby waters as a sign of its disapproval of China's belligerent act. Japan seconded the U.S. action, raising in Chinese minds the
possibility that Japan might offer logistical and other support to its ally in the event of hostilities. Even though
intervention is only a possibility, a strong and close tie between Japanese and U.S. security interests guarantees that
the Chinese leadership cannot afford to miscalculate the consequences of an unprovoked attack on Taiwan. The
alliance backs up Japan's basic stance that the two sides need to come to a negotiated solution.


War over Taiwan causes extinction
Straits Times 2k Ching Cheong, ―No one gains in war over Taiwan,‖ The Straits Times (Singapore), 25 June 2000, lexis
THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full-scale war between the US and China. If
Washington were to conclude that splitting China would better serve its national interests, then a full-scale war becomes unavoidable. Conflict on such a scale would embroil other

countries far and near and -horror of horrors -raise the possibility of a nuclear war. Beijing has already told the US and Japan privately that it considers any country
providing bases and logistics support to any US forces attacking China as belligerent parties open to its retaliation. In the region, this means South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and, to a lesser extent, Singapore. If China

were to retaliate, east Asia will be set on fire. And the conflagration may not end there as opportunistic powers
elsewhere may try to overturn the existing world order. With the US distracted, Russia may seek to redefine Europe's political
landscape. The balance of power in the Middle East may be similarly upset by the likes of Iraq. In south Asia, hostilities
between India and Pakistan, each armed with its own nuclear arsenal, could enter a new and dangerous phase. Will a
full-scale Sino-US war lead to a nuclear war? According to General Matthew Ridgeway, commander of the US Eighth Army which fought against the Chinese in the Korean War, the US had at the time thought of using nuclear
weapons against China to save the US from military defeat. In his book The Korean War, a personal account of the military and political aspects of the conflict and its implications on future US foreign policy, Gen Ridgeway said that
US was confronted with two choices in Korea -truce or a broadened war, which could have led to the use of nuclear weapons. If the US had to resort to nuclear weaponry to defeat China long before the latter acquired a similar

capability, there is little hope of winning a war against China 50 years later, short of using nuclear weapons. The US estimates that China possesses
about 20 nuclear warheads that can destroy major American cities. Beijing also seems prepared to go for the nuclear option. A Chinese military officer disclosed recently that Beijing was considering a

review of its "non first use" principle regarding nuclear weapons. Major-General Pan Zhangqiang, president of the military-funded Institute for Strategic Studies, told a
gathering at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington that although the government still abided by that principle, there were strong pressures from the military to drop it. He said military

leaders considered the use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the country risked dismemberment as a result of foreign
intervention. Gen Ridgeway said that should that come to pass, we would see the destruction of civilisation.




                                                                          Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 27
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                        Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                        ___ of ___
                                                          RELATIONS - Solvency
Removing the base is key to solve relations - tension is inevitable in the world of the
status quo, the plan changes the structure of the alliance to ensure sustainability
Dyer 10 J. E. Dyer, journalist and former intelligence analyst, "Past Time to Rethink Our Approach to Japan," Green Room, March 11 2010,
http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2010/03/11/past-time-to-rethink-our-approach-to-japan/

But the current situation is troubling, because what it amounts to is the Obama administration being dismissively recalcitrant about something that does, in fact,
involve Japanese sovereignty and Japan‘s mastery of her own destiny. The situation is that we want to move a Marine Corps air base to
Futenma on Okinawa – from its previous location on Okinawa – and Okinawans don‘t want the base at Futenma. (They want it gone
altogether.) There‘s been resistance to it for some time, but a previous Japanese government concluded an agreement with the Bush administration in 2006 to
go ahead with the Futenma move. Since the new prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama, formed his government in September 2009, however,
Japan has been rethinking the 2006 agreement. There were different ways to handle this, but what the Obama administration has
done is insist, with what is perceived as summary rudeness, that the 2006 agreement be honored. Hatoyama signaled in December that his
government would not simply agree to that right away, and announced that a final decision would be given no earlier than May. Hillary Clinton called in the
Japanese ambassador and gave him a talking to. Obama himself declined requests for a personal sidebar with Prime Minister Hatoyama at the Copenhagen
summit (although since he also declined such requests from Gordon Brown, Hatoyama might not need to feel super-especially slighted. ―Diss our best allies‖
seems to be one of the principles of Obamian Smart Power). Now senior American officials are visiting Japan and being interviewed every other week uttering
veiled threats about the consequences, if Japan doesn‘t stop with the domestic politics already, and just move forward with the Futenma base. Have we lost our
minds? For one thing, what happened to all that Obama business about shedding arrogance and being solicitous of the rest of the world? If we went by his
administration‘s rhetoric and supposed aspirations, we‘d think that if the Okinawans don‘t want a Marine air base, Obama would be the first one to listen and take
their concerns to heart. Indeed, if Republican senators under a GOP administration were over in Japan telling the Japanese that Futenma is the place we need to
put the base, Obama would probably lead the charge against such ―imperialism.‖ But there‘s a more fundamental issue here, and it makes the Obama
administration‘s weird inflexibility particularly ill-timed. The issue‘s origin is very simple: time has passed. The world has changed in some
important ways since 1945. We haven‘t given our alliance with Japan a really fresh, critical look since Nixon handed
Okinawa back in 1971, and it‘s high time we did. The UK Guardian article linked above comes, like most such treatments, from the perspective
that the only alternative to a divisive tiff between the US and Japan is the restoration (or at least reaffirmation) of the post-1971 status quo in our
relationship. But that status quo is losing support in Japan, and it‘s not because the Japanese ―don‘t like us,‖ or because they want to
reemerge as an imperial power and start talking about Co-Prosperity Spheres again. It‘s because the justification for the features of Japan‘s
role in the alliance is starting to crumble. Most Americans aren‘t aware that Japan pays the cost of maintaining the military
bases we use there. It costs the Japanese a lot of money to host our forces. That feature of our relationship might not be called into question if there were no
dispute over how many bases there should be, and where they should go – but there is. If there were still a Soviet Union rattling a big saber short miles across
the La Perouse Strait from Hokkaido, such disputes might loom smaller in Japan‘s domestic politics. But there isn‘t. It‘s shortsighted to dismiss an
emerging sense among Japanese voters that they‘d be perfectly safe with fewer bases hosting fewer US forces on
their islands, and it‘s downright obnoxious to demand that the national government behave as if that sense didn‘t
exist, or wasn‘t a real and serious factor in its internal obligations to its people. Japan has every right to her own evolving perceptions about her security
requirements. This is a voluntary alliance, not the Warsaw Pact. We may not like all of those evolving perceptions, and they may present inconvenient decision
                                                                                                                                    relationship
points for us, but throwing diplomatic tantrums is exactly, and I mean precisely, the wrong way to handle such developments. The truth is, our
with Japan has to evolve. We can grunt angrily and resist, or we can get out ahead of the problem and do some rethinking ourselves. That‘s what we
have State and Defense Departments for: to think ahead of current conditions to what will position us for future ones. What we should want is to manage our way
to a new, more sustainable relationship with Japan. The day is going to come when we assume more of the cost of basing forces there, and probably have to
keep fewer on the Japanese islands anyway. This need only happen in alarming, confrontational jolts if we sit around twiddling our thumbs and assuming nothing
has to change. It‘s not a bad thing to contemplate our alliance with Japan evolving to a different basis. It‘s a necessity, but it‘s also a positive opportunity. I think
we will always want to count Japan as an ally – an official military ally, by treaty agreement – but our alliance in 2010 and beyond doesn‘t have to have exactly
the same features as our alliance up to now. Getting on a new footing with Japan isn‘t something to be feared, it‘s something to be planned, negotiated, and
managed. The signals our moves send to China and Russia (as well as everyone from India to Australia) will also matter tremendously. It‘s not to our advantage
at all for the US-Japan alliance to appear grudging, and maintained mainly out of fear of China. (It‘s not to Japan‘s either; Japan is and will always be too big for
                                                                                                US has a permanent
China to intimidate militarily anyway, without China rattling sabers that would bring retribution down on her from elsewhere.) The
interest in an East Asia that is not under the domination of a hostile hegemon, but is as democratized as feasible and
open to trade, travel, and cultural exchange. This interest is common up the scale of national interests, from pure defense (we can‘t let the other side of the
Pacific become an armed imperium), to trading interests, to our national interest in promoting liberalization and consensual self-government.       This should
be our starting point for strategy – not the exact wording of today‘s Status of Forces Agreement with Japan.              The latter is something that can change
over time without compromising our security or interests. As Lord Palmerston famously said, it‘s the interests that endure.




                                                      Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                   28
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                 Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                ___ of ___
                                                     ECONOMY - Uniqueness
Japanese-US Security Relationship Increasingly Emerging as Issue in Domestic
Politics Including Economy
Subhash Kapila, 2010 (―Japan‘s Political Instability and its Strategic Impact‖ South Asia Analysis Group
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/\papers39\paper3848.html)


More seriously, Japanese insecurities are magnified further when Japan perceives that United States policy formulations in
East Asia exhibit ambiguities about Japan‘s strategic sensitivities. Under the present US Administration, even though the US
President and US Secretary of State visited Japan first in East Asia, but in their pronouncements in Tokyo they seemed to
indicate that the United States intends to adopt China as a partner in the security management of East Asia. With
such US attitudinal adoptions, it becomes logical for Japanese public to question the very premises of US-Japan
Mutual Security Treaty, Japan‘s financial underwriting of US forward military presence in Asia and the sizeable US
Marines presence on Okinawa Island. One gets a feeling from media features in Japanese press that strong resentment is surfacing
in Japan on these issues. More importantly the arrogance of US officials in dealings with Japan‘s security matters is
being resented. No wonder outgoing Japanese PM Hatoyama made pointed public references during President Obama‘s
visit to Tokyo that United States needs to manage relations with Japan on a more "equitable basis". He was airing widespread
Japanese sentiments on the issue. The United States security architecture in East Asia could collapse without Japan‘s participation. The United States would
need to address Japan‘s sensibilities on security issues on a more imaginative and equitable basis. US obliviousness to this aspect could
generate more political instability in Japan endangering US security interests. Apolitically unstable Japan could create a strategic
vacuum in East Asia in which China could assertively step in to fill the vacuum to the strategic discomfiture of the United
States.




                                                   Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                          29
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                  Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                   ___ of ___
                                                       ECONOMY - Uniqueness
Japan’s global econ competitiveness rankings are low now
Worsley May 19, 2010               By Ken Worsley Japan Economy ―Japan Slips In Global Competitiveness rating‖<
http://www.japaneconomynews.com/2010/05/19/japan-slips-in-global-competitiveness-rankings/#more-973> ~team awesome~

For the first time in 17 years, the United States is no longer the most competitive economy in the world, according to IMD‘s annual competitiveness survey.
The US dropped to third place, as Singapore and Hong Kong surged ahead in the rankings.
Japan watchers, however, must be dismayed by the nation‘s drop in the rankings even as other Asian nations jumped ahead.
While Taiwan moved up from 23 to 8, China went from 20 to 18 and South Korea jumped from 27 to 23, Japan fell ten places in the rankings,
from 17 to 27. IMD cited Japan‘s slow growth, anemic foreign investment, low birth rate, greying population, budget
deficits and corporate taxes (the highest of the 58 nations surveyed) as weaknesses. Japan was also cited as being unfriendly to
foreign corporations and workers. The report hinted that foreign companies might eventually decide to pass over Japan and concentrate business
efforts in other Asian nations, though that is a trend we already have seen for several years.




Japan's consumer prices continue to fall causing deflation
By Roland Buerk BBC News, Tokyo Page last updated at 07:39 GMT, Friday, 26 March 2010

                                         at home is cause for concern. Japan has been in deflation for 12 straight months,
Japanese exports are rising, but deflation
                                                                                                                                           Japan's
figures released by the government show. Prices fell by 1.2% in February from a year earlier, threatening the country's recovery from recession.
economy has been periodically plagued by deflation since the "lost decade" of the 1990s, which led to years of
stagnation. The prospect that goods will become cheaper in the future makes consumers reluctant to buy today. This leads to a vicious circle of falling
company profits and wages. Downward trend The latest figures - where the core consumer price index fell by 1.2% - is not as bad as in previous months. But
the preliminary figures for Tokyo for March showed a steeper decline. The capital is seen as an indicator for
nationwide trends. Eyeing an election in the summer, the government is putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to further increase the money supply to
tackle the problem. "The pace of decline in prices is slowing somewhat, but prices are still falling," said Finance Minister Naoto Kan.
"More efforts will be needed to escape deflation.‖




                                                    Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                         30
SCFI 2010                                                                                                              Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                             ___ of ___
                                                            ECONOMY - Link
Futenma draws large amounts of Japanese Government Money with low returns
Kambayashi 06 (Takehiko Kambayashi, Washington Times Corespondant. The Washington Times. ―Okinawa projects have high costs, but low returns ;
Japan continues to throw money into area to balance U.S. military presence.‖ ProQuest)

Kunigami Village, the northernmost municipality of Okinawa's main island, recently got a ballpark, tennis court, athletic
track field and other recreational facilities. These facilities cost Japanese taxpayers $25.2 million but are a money-
losing operation. The lavish government subsidies that the village has received make up a large part of its budget,
but is not stanching its population decrease. "I seriously doubt whether such huge facilities fit their needs," said
Ginowan Mayor Yoichi Iha. But Yasunari Uehara, village chief of Kunigami Village, is optimistic that tourists will eventually take note. "We are not seeking
immediate gain," said Mr. Uehara. "If we take the long view, we need to create such facilities to attract people," he said. Such large facilities are "too
costly to maintain, so [the local governments involved] are bound to be financially strapped," said Ryunosuke Megumi,
an Okinawa-based political analyst and author. "And then again, they will demand more money from the
government." In principle, the costly package had nothing to do with Nago's acceptance of an alternate facility to replace the U.S.
Marine Corps Futenma Air Station. However, most people agree that money has poured in from Tokyo since the city agreed to
host the substitute military facility. Although the U.S. military presence means deafening noise and occasional
accidents and crimes harming Okinawa residents, it also means thousands of jobs and lucrative subsidies from the
Japanese government. "When it comes to economic development programs in Okinawa, technically, they are not
related to the U.S. military presence. In reality, however, everyone knows they are," said Hiroshi Nakachi, professor of law
at the University of the Ryukyus on Okinawa. Okinawans say the economic-development programs fall short because
Okinawa has suffered decades of neglect and exploitation at the hands of both the U.S. military presence and
Japan's central government. U.S. military facilities occupy 19 percent of Okinawa's main island.




                                                  Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                       31
SCFI 2010                                                                                                               Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                             ___ of ___
                                                            ECONOMY - Link
US Military Base at Okinawa causes Japanese Political and Economic Instability
Subhash Kapila, 2010 (―Japan‘s Political Instability and its Strategic Impact‖ South Asia Analysis Group
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/\papers39\paper3848.html)

In global terms, Japancounts more politically and economically than strategically. Its global significance arises from the
fact that it is ‗global funder‘ of many economic and social reconstruction projects. Here also Japan figures significantly
in the United States calculus as additionally Japan virtually underwrites the United States forward military presence in
East-Asia and contributes financially to United States military operations to offset her Constitutional limitations of not
contributing troops e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq, Indian Ocean maritime security etc.


Maintaining so many troops in Japan costs million of dollars every year
Carlton Meyer, 2009 (Carlton Meyer is a former Marine Corps officer who participated in military operations throughout the world, ―Outdated U.S. Military
Bases in Japan‖ http://www.g2mil.com/Japan-bases.htm)

Maintaining 50,000 U.S. troops in Japan requires millions of dollars each year to rotate GIs for three-year tours,
which includes shipping their children, pets, and household goods. In addition, mainland Japan is an unpopular duty
station because of cold weather, high costs, and polite yet unfriendly locals. Since housing costs for military families
and American civilian employees are twice that of the USA, the U.S. military also spends millions of dollars for
additional housing costs and "locality" pay.


U.S. Military Bases a Waste of Money and Manpower
Carlton Meyer, 2009 (Carlton Meyer is a former Marine Corps officer who participated in military operations throughout the world, ―Outdated U.S. Military
Bases in Japan‖ http://www.g2mil.com/Japan-bases.htm)

The U.S. military operates six major airbases in Japan, the same number as when the Cold War ended. As the U.S.
military shifted focus to the Persian Gulf and constructed a dozen of new airbases in that region, it did not close any
bases in Japan, even though their rational dissipated. This is a waste of American money and manpower, which irritates the
Japanese since they help fund America‘s massive fiscal deficit with the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds.




                                                  Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                        32
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                     Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                    ___ of ___
                                        ECONOMY - Japan k2 Global Economy
Japanese economic collapse spreads globally, disrupting global trade routes and
creating economic and political instability
Auslin '09
Michael Auslin, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, "Japan's Downturn Is Bad News for the World," Wall Street Journal, February 17 2009,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123483257056995903.html

If Japan's economy collapses, supply chains across the globe will be affected and numerous economies will face
severe disruptions, most notably China's. China is currently Japan's largest import provider, and the Japanese slowdown is
creating tremendous pressure on Chinese factories. Just last week, the Chinese government announced that 20 million rural migrants had lost their jobs.
Closer to home, Japan may also start running out of surplus cash, which it has used to purchase U.S. securities for years. For
the first time in a generation, Tokyo is running trade deficits -- five months in a row so far.
The political and social fallout from a Japanese depression also would be devastating. In the face of economic instability, other Asian nations
may feel forced to turn to more centralized -- even authoritarian -- control to try to limit the damage. Free-trade
agreements may be rolled back and political freedom curtailed. Social stability in emerging, middle-class societies will
be severely tested, and newly democratized states may find it impossible to maintain power. Progress toward a more open,
integrated Asia is at risk, with the potential for increased political tension in the world's most heavily armed region.



Japan’s economic stability is key to world economy
Wall Street Journal, February 2009. (Michael Auslin resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. ―Japan's Downturn Is Bad News for
the World-The U.S. can't count on Japanese savers. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123483257056995903.html)


                     Tokyo for her first trip as secretary of state, she will find a country in the midst of its worst recession in 50 years.
As Hillary Clinton visits
Japan's economy is contracting across the board: Exports have cratered, industrial     production is on track to plummet 30% from a year ago,
and the Japanese government projects that GDP will drop 12% from last year. The world's second largest economy, Japan is also the largest holder of
U.S. Treasury bonds. Recently, many economists and scholars in the U.S. have been looking backward to Japan's banking disaster of the 1990s, hoping to learn
lessons for America's current crisis. Instead, they should be looking ahead to what might occur if Japan goes into a full-fledged depression. If Japan's
economy collapses, supply chains across the globe will be affected and numerous economies will face severe
disruptions, most notably China's. China is currently Japan's largest import provider, and the Japanese slowdown is creating tremendous pressure on
Chinese factories. Just last week, the Chinese government announced that 20 million rural migrants had lost their jobs. Closer to home, Japan may also
start running out of surplus cash, which it has used to purchase U.S. securities for years. For the first time in a generation,
Tokyo is running trade deficits -- five months in a row so far. The political and social fallout from a Japanese depression also would be
devastating. In the face of economic instability, other Asian nations may feel forced to turn to more centralized -- even
authoritarian -- control to try to limit the damage. Free-trade agreements may be rolled back and political freedom
curtailed. Social stability in emerging, middle-class societies will be severely tested, and newly democratized states may find it impossible
to maintain power. Progress toward a more open, integrated Asia is at risk, with the potential for increased political
tension in the world's most heavily armed region. This is the backdrop upon which the U.S. government is set to expand the national debt by a
trillion dollars or more. Without massive debt purchases by Japan and China, the U.S. may not be able to finance the cost of the stimulus package, creating a
                                              politicians have been unable to find a way out of this mess. While another $53 billion
trapdoor under the U.S. economy. So far, Japan's
                                                              of Japan's prefectures have instituted emergency economic
stimulus package works its way through parliament, fully one-third
stabilization measures. But the big issues elude short-term solutions. Though Japan's leaders are currently cutting back on military
expenditures and domestic services, they're unable to agree on budgets or reform plans. They have no strategic road map for
reining in the yen, opening up to international competition, or taking an economic leadership role in Asia that will promote growth and strengthen democratic,
                                                                Japan's leaders can craft a monetary policy that ends Japan's
market-oriented societies. Things don't have to turn out this way. If
deflationary spiral by carefully expanding the money supply, recommit to structural reform, and halt the yen's rise, they can jump-start economic
growth. They should also ignore the powerful domestic agriculture lobby and embrace a robust free-trade agenda, which would help them as well as the rest of
Asia. Mrs. Clinton's visit cannot be a simple photo opportunity. This trip needs to result in a clear U.S.-Japan approach to restoring confidence and rebuilding a
robust and open international system. Without       action, Japan and America may go over the cliff together, dragging Asia and the
world down with them.




                                                      Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                               33
SCFI 2010                                                                                                     Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                ___ of ___
                                     ECONOMY - Japan k2 US Economy
The US Economy is Directly Linked to Japan through debt
By Roland   Buerk: BBC News, Tokyo          12 July 2010 Last updated at 02:11 ET < http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10594674>


Opinion is divided about the threat posed by the country's debt. Many feel Mr Kan's warnings of an impending crisis may have gone too
far because 95% of the government's bonds are held by Japanese savers and institutions. Some fear Japan is failing to
tackle problems caused by its aging society They are much less likely to cut and run than the foreign creditors to which many other countries
owe money. But doom-mongers argue that as Japan's population continues to age the savings rate is likely to decline further,
forcing Japan eventually to borrow more from abroad. The higher interest rates demanded could make servicing the
debt unsustainable, tipping the country into the abyss. What is not in doubt is if the crunch comes it would dwarf the problems posed by
Greece. Japan is the world's second biggest economy, and in a crisis could be expected to draw in its resources,
massive corporate investment abroad and a huge stake in the debt of the US government.




                                             Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                          34
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                  Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                  ___ of ___
                                               A2: T - Presence = Non-Combat
We meet - Okinawa basing is a non-combat mission
Bandow '98 Doug Bandow, Senior Fellow at Cato, "Liberating Washington's East Asian Military Colony," Cato Institute, http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-
314.pdf

        Marines point to new, non-war-fighting tasks. They state, "Our missions span the operation continuum from
Next, the
disaster relief and humanitarian assistance through non-combat evacuation and peacekeeping."63 Some of those tasks are of
dubious benefit--especially American involvement in UN peacekeeping or nation building.64 Others may diminish the Marine Corps' ability to carry out its most
important task (humanitarian operations, for example, tend to degrade war-fighting capabilities). Even those tasks with value--rescuing American civilians from an
imploding country, for instance--do not warrant the cost, to both the United States and Okinawa, of the existing force and base structure.




                                                   Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                            35
SCFI 2010                                                                                                        Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                      ___ of ___
                                                  A2: Deterrence/Stability DA
Removing basing doesn't decrease deterrence - air and sea assets and Japanese fill-
in solves
Chanlett-Avery and Konishi '09 Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs, and Weston S. Konishi, Analyst in Asian Affairs, "The
Changing U.S.-Japan Alliance: Implications for U.S. Interests," Congressional Research Service, July 23 2009

Some analysts argue that the Cold War formula for the U.S.-Japan alliance is outdated and that theforward presence of 53,000 U.S. troops is an
unnecessary burden to the U.S. military. They assert that Japan has the resources to develop into a more autonomous defense
force and could cooperate with the U.S. military in areas of mutual concern on a more limited, ―normal‖ country to- country basis.
Further, advocates argue that the eventual withdrawal of U.S. forces from Japanese soil could cement a more durable strategic
partnership than the current configuration.31 Opponents of this strategy argue that the large-scale U.S. military presence is necessary in a region
with simmering tension and the rise of China, a power that may challenge U.S. hegemony in Asia. Some military experts argue that reducing the number
of Marines stationed in Japan, while maintaining air and sea assets, could reduce some of the burden on local communities and still
maintain a strong U.S. deterrence in the region.




                                                  Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                               36
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                            ___ of ___
                                                          A2: Japan Prolif DA
No risk of Japanese militarism or nuclearization - budget limitations and domestic
opposition
Newsweek July 16th
Tobias Harris, doctoral student in political science at MIT, "Japan-U.S. Relations Could Get Bumpy," Newsweek, July 16 2010,
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/07/16/a-fragile-alliance.html

As the government‘s fiscal situation worsens, it becomes less and less likely that Tokyo will take up an ambitious
security policy agenda. Fixing the government‘s finances is a key step to addressing the other pocketbook issues with
which voters are concerned. It is unlikely that a government implementing controversial budget cuts and tax increases would
also take up the contentious question of how it should contribute to the defense of Japan and security in East and Central
Asia. Its fear would be that the public would punish leaders perceived as focused on problems far from Japanese
shores as it implements policies that hurt Japanese households. Moreover, for a cash-strapped government, the status quo, in which
Japan limits its defense spending while subsidizing U.S. bases in Japan, continues to suit Japan‘s interests. The logic of the Yoshida doctrine—which was
formulated during the early postwar period, and which called for low defense spending combined with an alliance founded on U.S. bases in Japan—remains
relevant today: Japanese leaders once saw the doctrine as the key to postwar economic development, and now the same policies provide resources for shoring
up Japan‘s social safety net and halting economic decline.



Zero risk of Japan prolif - new leadership strongly opposes armament - our evidence
assumes theirs
Wittner '09 Lawrence S. Wittner, professor at SUNY-Albany, ―Japan‘s Election and Anti-Nuclear Momentum,‖ Foreign Policy in Focus, September 4th
2009, accessed 9/4/09 http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/6401

                                                                                                           shown
In the past few years, Japan's long-ruling conservatives — grouped in the misnamed Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) — had
increasing signs of dispensing with Japan's nuclear-free status. Pointing to North Korea's development of a nuclear
capability, party officials had publicly floated the idea of Japan's acquiring nuclear weapons. More recently, a former
government official revealed what many Japanese already suspected: Decades ago, an LDP government had agreed to allow stopovers in Japan by U.S. military
aircraft and vessels carrying nuclear weapons. Outside observers even began to voice the idea that Japan's LDP government, by insisting on U.S. nuclear
guarantees, might undermine plans by the Obama administration to reduce the importance of nuclear weapons in U.S. defense policy. But the stunning
victory by Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), with its sharply antinuclear stand, has altered this situation dramatically.
Pointing to the nation's "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" — a 1967 government pledge not to possess, manufacture, or introduce nuclear
weapons into Japan — Democratic Party leader Yukio Hatoyama promised to work to codify these principles into law. Nor is the party's
antinuclear vision limited to Japan. The DPJ endorses a regional nuclear-free zone. And as recently as this August, Hatoyama
told a public gathering that "realizing a nuclear-free world as called for by U.S. President Barack Obama is exactly the
moral mission of our country." The DPJ's victory gives added momentum to a campaign for nuclear abolition that has
recently transitioned from an apparently utopian vision to pragmatic politics.




                                                    Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                      37
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                  Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                 ___ of ___
                                                     NEG - Relations Resilient
Disagreement over Futenma won’t harm relations, as it is the only thing preventing
an all-out Asian arms race and war.
AP’09 (December 17. ―U.S Japan alliance is solid‖. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/6833057/US-Japan-alliance-is-solid-despite-wobble-over-
Okinawa.html)
                   US military base in Japan has strained ties between Tokyo and Washington but analysts say that it is unlikely
A spat over the future of a
to cause permanent damage to an alliance that both sides value highly. A new centre-Left government took power in Japan in August
after half a century of conservative rule, pledging to review past agreements on the US military presence and to deal with Washington on a more "equal" basis.
The US administration initially welcomed Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama but voiced irritation when his cabinet announced it may scrap the previously agreed
relocation of Futenma airbase on southern Okinawa island. "This issue has not been well managed on either side," said Robert Dujarric, a Japan expert at
Temple University in Tokyo. "There is a lot of frustration in the Pentagon towards Japan... but this is not a major issue for the Obama administration," he said.
"The bases are useful for Japan but also for the United States, and Futenma is not worth a rupture of the alliance between
the two countries." Hatoyama has suggested he intends to move the base to a new location on the sub-tropical island, or even outside Okinawa, breaching an
agreement signed in 2006 between previous conservative governments in Washington and Tokyo. Since its defeat in World War II, officially pacifist Japan has
relied on a massive US military presence to guarantee its security, initially as an occupier and later as an ally. But the dispute over Futenma has raised fears
among some Japanese that this alliance might cool, at a time when a rising China is making its presence felt across Asia. Jean-Vincent Brisset, a researcher at
the Institute of International and Strategic Relations in Paris, says that Washington        is unlikely to abandon its ally, despite "The US needs
Japan's 'unsinkable aircraft-carrier,'" he said, referring to the name sometimes given to Okinawa, which is home to more than half of the 47,000
American soldiers stationed in Japan. "They know that China one day may trigger a conflict and that most probably it will at first be a naval
conflict," said Brisset, a former general. "For the US army, the bases in Japan are forward deployments in case of a regional conflict. They
would also protect Japan if the Chinese or the North Koreans attacked the archipelago. It would mean an attack against the
United States that would trigger an automatic response." Tim Huxley, an Asia expert at the Institute of International Strategic Studies in
Singapore, said that the US military presence in Japan provides a mental fillip to Washington's allies and suits the Pentagon well.
"Having forces in the region - not just troops, but also navy and air force units and personnel - provides psychological reassurance to US
allies and security partners, while providing important logistic support that would be vital for launching and sustaining large-scale
operations," he said. Huxley said the US military presence "is important to the US and serves Washington's interests in the region by facilitating
the projection of US power in East Asia. This capacity would be crucial in the event of regional crises - for example, relating to Taiwan or
Korea. "America would be doing less, less convincingly, if it relied only on aircraft carriers." Huxley said that if one day Japan decides to rely on its
own Self Defence Forces, "it would need to increase its defence effort considerably, possibly causing alarm in other parts of Asia,
particularly China and Korea, and sparking a regional arms race." Dujarric said it is in the interest of the Obama administration to give Hatoyama some
time to find a solution on Futenma. He said Tokyo needed the space to resolve the base question in a way that was acceptable to those who object to the strong
US presence in the country if the young government was to thrive. "This government is the best hope of a revival of Japan since a very long time ago," he said.
"If the Futenma issue ends badly, Hatoyama's position will be weakened."




                                                   Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                            38
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                   Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                  ___ of ___
                                                     NEG - Relations Resilient
Relations are resilient - economic and security cooperation ensure the alliance will
stay solid no matter what
Schoff '09 James L. Schoff, Associate Director of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, ―Realigning Priorities: The U.S.-Japan
Alliance & the Future of Extended Deterrence,‖ Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, March 2009, accessed 8/19/09 http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/RealignPriorities.pdf

Looking at these relationships over time further underscores the solid nature of U.S.-Japan relations. About 70 percent or
80 percent of Japanese consistently view relations with the United States as good or fairly good, while the evaluation of
other regional relationships oscillates depending on current events and trends. In the late 1980s, for example, around 70 percent of Japanese saw
Japan-China relations in a positive light, but the gap narrowed to about 50/50 after the Tiananmen massacre, until essentially reversing by 2005. The trend line
charting Japanese views of Japan-ROK relations looks like a roller coaster of positive and negative assessments, with a peak in 2003 at 60 percent, and the
gloomiest outlook in two decades just three years later at 34 percent (Japan Cabinet Office 2008a). If the Asia-Pacific region were a school yard, then the
United States would be not only Japan‘s biggest friend on the playground, but also its best long-time friend. Nothing
provides Japan with a more consistent and comforting sense of security than its economic and security relationship
with the United States.




                                                    Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                              39
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                         Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                          ___ of ___
                                                      NEG - Relations Alt Causes
A number of alternate causes to loss of cooperation between Japan and the US exist
Rapp '04 William E. Rapp, "Past its prime," Summer 2004, www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/parameters/04summer/rapp.pdf
For a number of reasons, Japan will increasingly seek to chart its own course in the future and will be less likely to
respond favorably and quickly to selected American requests for military and diplomatic support. Resource shortfalls,
attitudinal changes, and an increased sense of self all combine to make the long-term health of the alliance questionable. As with
most developed countries of the world, these concerns start with money and oil. * Japanese Economic Woes. Although Japan’s
GDPgrowth is barely positive, the macro-economic situation in Japan continues to be extremely dismal. Huge budget deficits, reaching 48 percent of federal spending,
have created mammoth national debt pressures. The banking and loan default crisis continues unabated as yet another bank has recently been nationalized to prevent
its collapse. The future is no less bleak. The population of Japan, raised under the assumption of a generous social safety net, is increasingly aged and will face a
pension crisis within decades.16 The net results of this economic situation are twofold. First, Japanese companies are forced to invest heavily in Chinese labor and
resource markets, with resulting demands from the business community for policy accommodations toward China. Second, there is declining budget space for defense
spending—a necessity to remain useful as an alliance partner with the United States. Although on one hand a lack of money for defense might drive the Japanese
toward the Americans for protection, the failure of the Japanese to pull their weight in the alliance will further exacerbate American frustrations. The inability to fund
military modernization on a large scale will only increase the capabilities gap between the two allies. * Oil Demand and Resource Politics.
Exceedingly energy-resource poor, Japan imports over 91 percent of its oil from the Middle East and is looking to diversify those sources.17 This need for oil will
tend to increase US-Japan policy friction as Tokyo seeks separate accommodation with oil exporters. 18 This has been seen clearly in Iran in recent months and will
make Japan seek to accommodate Russian aspirations in the Far East. Oil needs likely will lead to Japanese divergence from American policy positions vis-à-vis a
number of Asian and North African nations. While America is focused on fighting the war against terrorism and preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction and missile technologies, the Japanese are focused on securing future import streams of oil and natural gas. The competing imperatives may lead to
confrontations damaging to the alliance.19 * Trade Frictions. Although now removed, the US steel tariffs and resulting punitive reactions from Japan were
emblematic of a renewed friction in trade relations between Tokyo andWashington. Quiet for most of the 1990s due to the Japanese economic downturn, the recent
spike in adverse trade policies reflects competing internal pressures in Tokyo. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, long the strongest supporter of the United States, is
losing the policy fight with the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) which supports policies of economic growth at the expense of the alliance
relationship. As long as economic recovery is at the fore of Japanese domestic politics, METI will continue to dominate the other ministries on external policy. *
Geopolitics in East Asia. Despite the prominence of history and recent territorial confrontations, trade relations and a desire to make a strategic hedge for the
future have led to a significant Japanese detente with China since 1997. In 2003, Japan’s bilateral trade with China surpassed $132 billion, representing a 30-percent
increase from 2002 and passing the United States as Japan’s top trading partner.20 Given the economic woes of Japan, these ties are vital to renewed Japanese
financial and budgetary solvency. The situation with Taiwan, Japan’s fourth largest trading partner, is similarly causing the Japanese to hedge away from the United
States. As the Bush Administration tightens political and military ties with Taipei, many Japanese have begun to fear entrapment in a US-China confrontation.
Combined with increased economic interaction and a desire to find a peaceful resolution to the DPRK nuclear crisis, this has led to renewed Japanese interest in
enhancing diplomatic ties with the Middle Kingdom. * Rebirth of Nationalism. As Eugene Matthews noted recently in Foreign Affairs, the Japanese are
rediscovering their sense of nationalism and desire for independence of policy.21 Conversations with younger Japanese politicians about the alliance with America
reveal a marked and relatively uniform desire for greater strategic self-determination.22 Although many in neighboring countries are shrill in their worry about a
remilitarized Japan, it is folly to believe that Japan faces a choice between continued one-country pacifism and the nationalistic militarism of the 1930s. There are
choices in-between, and the tone of learned writings and political statements from Japan indicate a reasoned and determined shift toward assertiveness and policy
autonomy. * Attitudes Among Japanese Toward American Foreign Policy. Central to the shift in policy stance among Japanese politicians
and commentators is a concern with American power and perceived unilateralist tendencies. Like Germany, France, China, and Russia, Japan is concerned with
American hegemony and the tendency of the United States to use force without international sanction. In polls of the Japanese people, North Korea and the United
States are the two countries deemed most likely to involve Japan in a military conflict.23 By asserting the right of preemption and showing disdain for certain
multinational agreements like the International Criminal Court and the Kyoto Accords, the Bush Administration has alienated a large percentage of the Japanese
public. *Recent History of Timely Participation with the United States. Central to an American conception of reliability has been the
willingness of Japan to participate in ventures the United States deems vital for the maintenance of global peace. Although the Japanese rapidly passed the Anti-
Terrorism Special Measures Act in November 2001 following the World Trade Center attacks, they have been notably reluctant to push forward plans that would put
Japanese citizens in harm’s way in support of American initiatives. The 1997 Revised Guidelines arose out of American concerns with Japanese reliability following
the first GulfWar and the North Korean nuclear crisis of the mid-1990s. American fears about nonresponsiveness and a Japanese unwillingness or inability to accept
risk with the United States have not abated much since then. In the early summer of 2003, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi vowed to put Japanese forces on the
ground in Iraq. It took nearly seven months (and numerous site surveys and public debate) for the first Japanese ground contingent to arrive at Samawah. Although the
Bush Administration has been rigorous in avoiding the appearance of putting overt pressure on the Japanese, friction and frustration have risen on both sides. *
Public Fear of Casualties. Deep down, the past six decades of peace in Japan have resulted in an expanded conception of security that makes the safety of
the individual citizen more important than overall national security. The noted commentator Seizaburo Sato poignantly described how the conception of
“comprehensive security” has evolved over the last four decades in Japan, with the result being an “irrational” prioritization of the individual over the state, even if
national survival would be at stake.24 Debate on this topic is muted in Tokyo, because very few commentators and even fewer politicians are willing to take the side
of the state over the individual. Because of that, Japan has not yet come to any semblance of consensus on what national interests are worth the life of any of its
citizens. Oil from Southwest Asia, although it is without question the lifeline of Japan, is clearly not one of these interests. The machinations about finding a “safe”
sector in Iraq is a case in point.25 Neither, it appears, is the war on terror—as the Japanese ships supporting Operation Enduring Freedom remain well beyond the
range of threats. Nor does the need to take a hard line with North Korea over potential nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles (clearly pointed at Japan) supercede the
public desire to fully account for the handful of abducted Japanese citizens and their families in North Korea. At the end of the day, this fear of harm to the individual
puts the reliability of the alliance between the United States and Japan in serious question.




                                                      Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                     40
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                    Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                 ___ of ___
                                                             NEG - No F22 Link
New sales to Japan would be with the F-35 not the F-22
Japan Today 10-4-09 (http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/us-asks-japan-to-pay-y1-bil-for-fighter-jet-info)
The U.S. government has asked Japan to pay around 1 billion yen for information related to the capabilities of
the U.S. F-35 fighter jet, a leading candidate for Japan‘s next-generation mainstay fighter, sources close to Japan-
U.S. relations said Saturday. The U.S. side has also told Japan that Washington will provide information on the jet‘s
stealth capabilities for evading radar detection once Tokyo makes a decision to purchase the fighter jet, the
sources said. Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates are likely to discuss Japan‘s
possible selection of the F-35 when they hold talks in Japan on Oct 20. The F-35 is being jointly developed by the United States, Britain, Australia
and other countries, and the 1 billion yen would likely be redistributed depending on the ratio of development costs shouldered by each country. Japan is not
                                                                                            Japan initially
participating in the joint development as it conflicts with the country‘s principles of banning weapons and arms-technology exports.
aimed to acquire the U.S. F-22 stealth fighter to replace its aging F-4EJ fighter fleet, but U.S. law currently
prohibits export of the F-22 and the United States has announced a plan to halt production of the jet . Though
other models such as the F/A-18 and F-15FX produced by the United States and the Eurofighter, produced by a consortium of European manufacturers, are still
                 is inclined to select the F-35 as it has the highest performance after the F-22. Japan will
being studied, Japan
start considering allocating purchasing costs for the F-35 in a draft budget for fiscal 2011, while accepting
the payment request for the F-35 information, the sources said. One F-35 jet is expected to cost about 9 billion yen.




                                                    Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                           41
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                 Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                ___ of ___
                                                             NEG - No F22 Link
No Japanese support for the F-22.
Konishi and Dujarric 09 (Weston S., adjunct fellow at the Mansfield Foundation in Washington, D.C., and Robert, heads the Institute of
Contemporary Japanese Studies at Temple University, Japan Campus, Hurdles to a Japanese F-22, Japan Times, May 16th http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-
bin/eo20090516a1.html)

There are also numerous hurdles on the Japanese side. Even if Washington were willing to sell the F-22 at a
foreclosure price of $140 million per unit, a very small number of planes, say 40, would increase Tokyo's defense
expenditures by $5.6 billion. Operating costs would bring that figure much higher. In order for Tokyo to pay for a viable F-22
program, it would either have to cut pet projects, such as its spy satellite system, or shatter the 1-percent-of-GDP cap
on defense spending, which most Japanese voters support. Either scenario requires significant political
groundwork that has simply not been attempted and seems unlikely to succeed at this point . Furthermore, for
several decades, Japan has opted for the domestic manufacture of its combat aircraft under license from U.S. contractors. Such an option for the F-22 would
make it even harder to go ahead with the Raptor. License manufacturing in Japan is a budgetary black hole, where billions can vanish as small production runs
and other inefficiencies exponentially raise costs. According to experts, per unit costs under these licensed production programs are twice those of the U.S.-
made versions and sometimes even higher. Moreover, a made-in-Japan F-22 would create extra concerns in the U.S. Congress about technology transfers to a
                                                       acquisition of the F-22 would involve significantly
country that is considered an economic competitor. In sum, Japan's
increasing defense spending, rethinking the domestic production of weapons platforms and implementing a
more robust legal and enforcement framework to protect classified information. Under current circumstances, these
developments are not in the cards. In the past two decades, China has invested heavily in its military and North Korea in its missile and nuclear
arsenals. But Japan's defense budget has been kept flat, or sometimes slightly lowered. Despite its enormous maritime interests, it took Tokyo months to
                                                                                                is not realistic to expect the
approve the deployment of a few vessels to Somalia under very restrictive rules of engagement. Consequently, it
Japanese government and Diet to suddenly summon the willpower to boost military outlays, cut down on
wasteful domestic production (which gives jobs and money to voters and campaign contributors), and pass draconian laws to
safeguard classified information.

US military doesn’t want F-22 sales
Reuters, 9-15-‗9 (―UPDATE 1-US Air Force chief wary of F-22 export project‖
http://in.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idINN155086220090915)

                                              top U.S. Air Force official expressed doubts on Tuesday about diverting service
NATIONAL HARBOR, Maryland, Sept 15 (Reuters) - A
personnel toward developing an export version of Lockheed Martin Corp's (LMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) F-22 fighter. An export version could
keep the production line going even as the Obama administration seeks to end purchases of the advanced combat jet during fiscal 2010, that begins Oct. 1. But
Air Force Chief of Staff General Norton Schwartz said personnel were needed to focus on what he described as
higher-priority programs, including a new aerial refueling tanker and a new long-range strike capability. He termed the proposed F-22 for export as
more of a commercial issue than a government issue. "I personally don't see it as being the best use of our acquisition talent,"
Schwartz told reporters after a speech to the annual meeting of the Air Force Association. Schwartz, the service's top uniformed
officer, said he would talk to members of Congress and their staff to make sure the Air Force understood their
intent. Japan, Israel and Australia have shown interest in buying the supersonic, radar-evading F-22 Raptor, manufactured by Lockheed as its top dogfighter.
Foreign F-22 sales have been banned by a 1998 law aimed at protecting the "stealth" technology and other high-
tech features said to make the fighter too good for money to buy.




                                                   Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                           42
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                               ___ of ___
                                                  NEG - F22s Impact Defense
No timeframe – sales take a decade
Shalal-Esa, Reuters, ‘9 (Andrea, June 5, ―Cost of F-22 fighter for Japan as much as $250 mln‖
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSN0530055420090605)


                            U.S. Air Force estimates it would cost Japan as much as $250 million per
WASHINGTON, June 5 (Reuters) - The
plane to buy dozens of radar-evading F-22 fighter jets, a U.S. senator told Japan's ambassador in a letter, saying he hopes to reverse
a current U.S. ban on such exports. Senator Daniel Inouye, who heads the Senate Appropriations Committee, said this price included the cost of creating an
                                                                    assumes production would begin in four to
export version of the most advanced U.S. fighter, built by Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N). This
five years, with deliveries in seven to nine years, according to two sources familiar with the letter.




                                                  Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                         43
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                                                                  Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                                                                         ___ of ___
                                               NEG - F22s to Japan Bad: Competitiveness
F-22 to Japan risks leaks that collapse competitiveness.
Chanlett-Avery, Analyst in Asian Affairs at the Congressional Research Service, 3/11/09 (Emma, Potential F-22 Raptor Export to Japan,
http://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RS22684.pdf)

The potential for technology transfer touches upon both military and economic concerns. Unlike some countries, Japan
does not have a track record of re-exporting technology that it acquires through import. However, an inadvertent leak of U.S. technology or
knowledge could also be a threat. The leak of secret data associated with the Aegis weapon system by Japanese military
personnel in 2002 is an example of this potential danger.9 Japan is a military ally, but also considered by some to be an economic rival.
Many of the F-22 technologies or industrial processes could have commercial application. Some may be concerned that F-22
technology or knowledge could find their way into a myriad of Japanese products, to the competitive detriment of
U.S. industry.

Key to the economy
Richardson, Former Chief Scientist and current Senior Fellow at the Potamac Institute for Policy Studies, 2K4 (James,
―Innovating science policy: restructuring S&T policy for the twenty-first century,‖ The Review of Policy Research, November 1, Number 6, Volume 21)

New technologies have and will continue to have great impact on the size and character of the United States economy. The degree to
which S&T impacts the economy is not precisely known, but one study estimates that one-third of measured economic growth in developed countries can be attributed to improvements in knowledge (Cameron,
1996). The Council on Competitiveness suggests that technological innovation and development was the force behind two-thirds of United States GDP growth in the 1990s (Porter & Opstal, 2001, p. vi). Its strong

economy greatly enhances the ability of the United States to cope with security threats, and   innovation is the cornerstone of the                                  United States           economy      . Having
industries capable of competing in an increasingly competitive global market not only increases national wealth, enabling Americans to preserve their way of life, but also provides the government with the tools to

                                  it is critical that the United States remains at the forefront of scientific exploration and
ensure safety. If S&T contributes to growth and economic security ,

maintains technological superiority. The motivation for improving investment in S&T comes not only from within but also from abroad. The United States now sponsors less than
44% of the world's R&D. Research and development and production must be handled more skillfully now than in the days when the United States dominated the world's R&D. America cannot as easily count on its
superior budget to overwhelm the competition in economic or national security. Moreover, globalization will encourage competition and create opportunities for other nations to rapidly advance and leapfrog over the

United States in key, particularly niche, technologies. Innovation is critical to economic competitiveness                                                        . One of the major national goals that the United States hopes
to promote through research is economic competitiveness. The link between innovation and economic growth is widely acknowledged and well documented. Innovation is particularly important to the United States
economy as the United States heavily relies on competitive advantage in advanced technology products. However, this stronghold of the United States economy is under increased pressure. This is largely the result
of globalization, a trend that seems likely to accelerate. If so, international competition in high-tech goods will increase in the future. International competition should be seen as an opportunity for the United States
industry to become stronger and more efficient. The United States is well positioned to embrace globalization and reap the fruits of economic competition.




                                                                       Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        44
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                                                                Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                                                                        ___ of ___
                                                                     NEG - F22s Bad: Arms Race
F-22 sales to Japan spark an Asian arms race.
Chanlett-Avery, Analyst in Asian Affairs at the Congressional Research Service, 3/11/09                                                      (Emma, Potential F-22 Raptor Export to Japan,
http://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RS22684.pdf)

China and South Korea have voiced concern about Japan‘s intention to upgrade its military capabilities,
largely grounded in suspicions that Japan will inch toward returning to its pre-1945 militarism. Some analysts caution that selling the F-22s to Japan
could destabilize the region, possibly even sparking an arms race, and contribute to an image of Japan becoming America‘s
proxy in the region. The sale could complicate the U.S. effort to manage its relationship with China. South Korea
has already registered its unease at Japan acquiring F-22s, and at one point suggested that it may seek a deal to purchase the aircraft in order to match
Japan‘s capabilities.10 Although the Lee Myung-bak government has made moves to strengthen U.S.-South Korean alliance, the Seoul-Washington relationship has been strained at times over the past several
years, and some South Koreans chafe at indications that the United States prioritizes defense ties with Japan above those with Korea. Japanese defense officials have pointed to China‘s acquisition of increasingly
sophisticated air capabilities to justify their request for the F-22s, asserting that China‘s modern air fleet will soon dwarf Japan‘s. Despite the relatively strong state of relations between Tokyo and Beijing, the two

                           Although the risk of military confrontation is considered small, there is the potential
nations remain wary of each other‘s intentions.

that territorial disputes over outlying islands could escalate into armed clashes, or that conflict could break
out in the Taiwan Strait between the United States and China, which could involve Japan . For this reason, some U.S.
and Japanese commentators have supported the sale of F-22s to Japan as necessary to maintain the ―Taiwan balance.‖


Nuclear war
Cirincione 00 (Joseph, dir. Nonprolif project at CEIP, The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain, Foreign Policy, Spring)
                                                                                                                                               a
The blocks would fall quickest and hardest in Asia, where proliferation pressures are already building more quickly than anywhere else in the world. If
nuclear breakout takes place in Asia, then the international arms control agreements that have been painstakingly
negotiated over the past 40 years will crumble. Moreover, the United States could find itself embroiled in its fourth war on the
Asian continent in six decades--a costly rebuke to those who seek the safety of Fortress America by hiding behind national missile defenses. Consider
what is already happening: North Korea continues to play guessing games with its nuclear and missile programs; South Korea
wants its own missiles to match Pyongyang's; India and Pakistan shoot across borders while running a slow-motion nuclear arms
race; China modernizes its nuclear arsenal amid tensions with Taiwan and the United States; Japan's vice defense minister is forced to resign
after extolling the benefits of nuclear weapons; and Russia--whose Far East nuclear deployments alone make it the largest Asian nuclear power--
struggles to maintain territorial coherence. Five of these states have nuclear weapons; the others are capable of constructing them. Like
neutrons firing from a split atom, one nation's actions can trigger reactions throughout the region, which in turn,
stimulate additional actions. These nations form an interlocking Asian nuclear reaction chain that vibrates
dangerously with each new development. If the frequency and intensity of this reaction cycle increase,
critical decisions taken by any one of these governments could cascade into the second great wave of
nuclear-weapon proliferation, bringing regional and global economic and political instability and, perhaps, the first combat use of a
nuclear weapon since 1945.




                                                                       Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      45
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                   Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                  ___ of ___
                                                            NEG - Economy Up
Non Unique- Economy expansion for Japan is happening now
19 May 2010 Last updated at 11:50 ET BBC News < http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10127279>


Japan's economy is picking up the IMF says, but debt is a concern The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged Japan to start
cutting its massive debt burden from next year. It said Japan should start increasing consumption taxto tackle its debt, which at nearly 230% of GDP, is the
highest of any industrialised nation. Concern has grown around the world about mounting levels of government debt after the financial crisis.The IMF said
Japan's economic recovery should allow it to start introducing debt-reduction measures. Along with tax measures, it
said Japan should also contain its growth in spending. "With global scrutiny of public finances increasing, the need
for early and credible fiscal adjustment has become critical," said the IMF's John Lipsky after the organisation's
annual visit to Japan. Japan, like most developed economies, has poured money into the financial system to avert
the worst of the financial crisis, something the IMF said had stabilised markets and supported the recovery. But aside
from the economic woes of the past two years, increasing tax revenues has proved particularly difficult for the Japanese government, which has been battling to
expand its economy for the past 20 years. Economic expansion is now happening, and the IMF predicts further GDP growth of
2% for this year and next.




                                                    Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                               46
SCFI 2010                                                                                                           Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                        ___ of ___
                                                  NEG - Economy Resilient
Japan’s Economy is Resilent
Myra P. Saefong 5/30 (Dow Jones Newswires 05-30-102308ET Dow Jones & Company, Inc. 5/30/2010 ASIA MARKETS:
“Japan's Not Immune, But Resilient To Debt Woes” http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/company-news-
story.aspx?storyid=201005302308dowjonesdjonline000308&title=asia-marketsjap)


Japan isn't completely immune to the debt concerns surrounding Europe but recent economic data may support the
argument that the nation's a bit more resilient than others in Asia. "It is correct that Japanese exports are quite well at the
moment, mainly due to the fact that Japan's main export destination is China and China's economy is the strongest in
the world," said Martin Hennecke, an associate director at Tyche Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. "So we would prefer seeking
opportunities in Japanese stocks compared with Europe or the United States," he said. Last week, government data
showed that Japan's trade account continued to improve in April, with the surplus and export growth beating market
expectations. On Monday, data showed that Japan's industrial output rose 1.3% in April from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted
terms, marking a second-straight monthly gain and suggesting that Japan's rising exports are still powering the
manufacturing sector. But traders in Tokyo didn't appear to be very optimistic following a debt rating downgrade on Spain last week. Late Monday
morning, the Nikkei Stock Average was down 0.2% while the broader Topix index traded nearly unchanged. Major exporters were among the decliners, with
Renesas Electronics Corp. ( RNECY) losing 4%, Tokyo Electron Ltd. (8035.TO) down 2.2% and Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd. (KWHIF) down 1.5%. Sony
Corp. (SNE) fell 0.7% and Toshiba Corp. (TOSYY) was down 0.6%. In broader regional trading, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was off 0.4% and China's Shanghai
Composite fell 0.2% but Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.2%, South Korea's Kospi added 0.3% and New Zealand's NZX-50 was up 0.4%.




                                                Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                  47
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                     Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                    ___ of ___
                                                NEG - Okinawa Good: Stability
The Okinawa base is key to US power projection in Asia which ensures East Asian
stability
Axe June 28th
David Axe, independent military correspondent, "Why Allies Need US Base," The Diplomat, June 28 2010, http://the-diplomat.com/2010/06/28/why-allies-need-
okinawa-base/

The decision to stick with the 2006 deal represented the belated recognition on Hatoyama‘s part that ‗there was no
other good option‘ for the strategically-vital Marine presence and for the US-Japanese alliance in general, according to Michael Auslin, an
Asia expert with the American Enterprise Institute. In that context, the prime minister‘s vague election promise to Okinawan base-detractors was a
‗miscalculation.‘
So, will the Futenma dispute also prove the undoing of Hatoyama‘s successor, Naoto Kan, who has so far stayed quiet on the base issue? If anything, the
crisis over Futenma underscored the lasting, even growing, importance of US military facilities in Okinawa—not only for the
United States, but also for Japan and other US allies. As China‘s economic and military rise continues and tensions
mount over North Korea‘s nuclear programme and its alleged sinking of a South Korean warship, the US and its
Asian allies need Okinawa more than ever.
‗The US, South Korea and Australia have been very vocal to Japan, saying, ―Hey, be careful what you‘re doing,‖‘ Sheila Smith, an analyst with the Council on
Foreign Relations, says. ‗This isn‘t a good moment to be taking large numbers of US forces out of Japan.‘
Aside from US forces in South Korea (which are exclusively focused on the North Korean land threat) there are just two significant concentrations of US troops in
East Asia: in Okinawa and on the Pacific island of Guam. Okinawa lies just an hour‘s flight time from both the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan; Guam, by contrast,
is 1000 miles from any potential theatre of war.
                                                                                                                    we‘re in Guam,
‗It may be easier for us to be there [in Guam], as far as the diplomatic issue is concerned,‘ says Air Force spokesman John Monroe. ‗But if
we‘re out of the fight‘ due to the distance. For combat forces to be capable of reacting quickly to the most likely
crises, Okinawa is the only realistic option.
Without its 2 Okinawan air bases and their 3 roughly 10,000-foot runways, the US military—and by extension, US allies—would
depend almost entirely on a handful of US aircraft carriers for bringing to bear aerial firepower in East Asia. That might be
a realistic option, except that China has lately deployed several new classes of anti-ship weaponry specifically meant for sinking US carriers, including the widely-
feared DF-21 ballistic missile and a flotilla of stealthy fast-attack vessels.



American basing in Japan is key to East Asian stability - troop presence assures
allies and deters rising powers
Wortzel '03
Larry M. Wortzel, Vice President of Foreign Policy and Defense Studies at the Heritage Foundation," Web Memo #185, Heritage Foundation, 10 January 2003,
http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/wm185.cfm

America‘s primary regional security interests are best served by preserving the stability of Northeast Asia, an area
plagued by war for most of the past century. Without an American military presence, deep historical animosities and territorial
disputes among Russia, China, Japan, and the two Koreas would lead to a major race for military dominance. A delicate balance
has existed since the end of World War Two, when Japan renounced offensive military force and rejected nuclear weapons. Pulling out US
troops would destroy that balance. America‘s military presence in Northeast Asia has provided the glue for security
arrangements that offered protection to its allies and reassurances that helped avert an arms race among enemies
that have fought each other for centuries. America‘s bilateral security treaties with Japan and South Korea, respectively, ensure that United States
military, political, and economic interests in the region are protected. The forward presence of U.S. troops also serves to protect the democracies
of South Korea and Taiwan from hostile threats by Leninist dictatorships in North Korea and China. Japan depends on the
presence of U.S. military forces. It maintains its peace constitution, eschews the development of an offensive military force, and feels secure in a
nuclear age without a nuclear arsenal because of American security guarantees. For South Korea, the presence of U.S. combat forces has created the
conditions that permitted democracy and a market economy to flourish.




                                                    Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                               48
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                     Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                     ___ of ___
                                                 NEG - Okinawa Good: Stability
Okinawa Base most critical in the world, and is necessary for stability
Weaver’10 (Teri, Jan 31. Professor in journalism, S.I Newhouse School of Public Communications. ―Ambassador stresses need for troops on Okinawa.
http://www.stripes.com/news/u-s-ambassador-stresses-need-for-troops-on-okinawa-1.98488)
TOKYO — The      Marines stationed on Okinawa might be the least understood of the nearly 50,000 U.S. troops serving throughout Japan, according
                                                                                                                                                      most
to the United States‘ top diplomat here in a Friday speech to explain to Japanese the importance of the military alliance. ―But in reality, it‘s among the
critical of the forces we deploy in both peacetime and in the unlikely event of conflict,‖ Ambassador John Roos asserted Friday in a speech before
students and faculty at Waseda University in Tokyo. Those Marines are the region‘s first responders by air and ground, Roos continued as he
made his case for U.S. troops in Japan. As China‘s military spending grows and as North Korea‘s missile and nuclear programs
continue, Roos said, it‘s up to the United States and Japan to maintain security in the area. ―Make no mistake about it — the
stakes are high,‖ Roos said before the packed auditorium in the school‘s International Conference Center. ―Our alliance is the critical stabilizing force in this
area of the world.‖ His speech came a day after U.S. Forces Japan Lt. Gen. Edward Rice appeared on a two-hour Japanese TV program to talk about and field
questions from viewers about the alliance. Roos, since arriving in Japan last summer, has faced a new Japanese government less comfortable with the U.S.
military presence than the former, more conservative ruling party. Now the two countries are struggling to implement a 4-year-old security agreement that
includes moving a U.S. Marine Corps air base from an urban part of Okinawa to a rural one. The Marines and their helicopters on Okinawa can
rapidly put troops and rescuers on the ground in the region, Roos said, which they‘ve done a dozen times in the past five
years for humanitarian crises. If there were no Marines on Okinawa, that response would then come from Hawaii, he added. But it‘s those helicopters at
Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, coupled with decades of heavy U.S. military presence on the poor, often-ignored prefecture, that have become a rallying cry
for some against a current military realignment plan. Now, the helicopters take off and land in densely populated Ginowan. Nago, a rural town selected as the
new air station home, doesn‘t want the air traffic. The town just narrowly elected a mayor who campaigned against the Marines‘ move. Roos, however, asked
those concerned about the move to look beyond Okinawa. ―North Korea obviously remains the most immediate concern,‖ Roos said, because of both its military
and a possible regime collapse




                                                     Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                             49
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                                                                         Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                                                                                                 ___ of ___
                                                             NEG - Okinawa Good: Deters China
Presence on Okinawa is key to stopping the threat in China
Bush in 2010 (Richard C., March 10th, director at the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, ―Okinawa and Security in East Asia‖,
http://www.brookings.edu/speeches/2010/0310_japan_politics_bush.aspx)

The threat environment in Northeast Asia is not benign. North Korea‘s WMD capabilities are a matter of concern but will hopefully be a medium-term
problem. More attention, however, is focused on China which has gradually developed a full spectrum of capabilities, including
nuclear weapons. Their current emphasis is on power projection and their immediate goal is to create a strategic buffer in at least the first island chain.
Although Taiwan is the driver for these efforts, they affect Japan. Of course, capabilities are not intentions. However, how will Japan feel as the conventional
U.S.-China balance deteriorates and a new equilibrium is reached, especially knowing that China has nuclear weapons? There are also specific points of friction
within Northeast Asia such as the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, the East China Sea, North Korea, and Taiwan, some of which involve and concern more than one
government. Although we can hope that China will not seek to dominate East Asia at the U.S. and Japan‘s expense, we can‘t be sure of their intentions either.
                                                                            try to shape China‘s intentions over time so that they
Hope is not a policy. The most sensible strategy—for both the U.S. and Japan—is to
move in a benign direction; so that it has more to gain from cooperation than a challenge. This has been the U.S. and Japan‘s strategy since the early
1970s. The strategy has a good foundation in economic interdependence. However, it is easier said than done and is one of the biggest challenges of this
                                                                                                                          the strength and
century. The strategy requires at least two elements: engaging and incorporating China as much as possible, and maintaining
willingness to define limits. This combination of elements is important because engagement without strength would lead China to exploit our good will
while strength without engagement would lead China to suspect that our intentions are not benign. If engagement-plus-strength is the proper
strategy for the U.S. and Japan each to cope with a rising China, it only makes sense that Japan and the United
States will be more effective if they work together, complementing each other‘s respective abilities. The strength side
of this equation almost requires Japan to rely on the alliance since history suggests that it will not build up sufficiently on its own. An
important part of strength is positioning your power in the right places. That is why forward deployment of U.S. forces in Japan has always
been important. That is why our presence on Okinawa is important.


War over Taiwan causes extinction
Straits Times 2k Ching Cheong, ―No one gains in war over Taiwan,‖ The Straits Times (Singapore), 25 June 2000, lexis
THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full-scale war between the US and China. If
Washington were to conclude that splitting China would better serve its national interests, then a full-scale war becomes unavoidable. Conflict on such a scale would embroil other

countries far and near and -horror of horrors -raise the possibility of a nuclear war. Beijing has already told the US and Japan privately that it considers any country
providing bases and logistics support to any US forces attacking China as belligerent parties open to its retaliation. In the region, this means South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and, to a lesser extent, Singapore. If China

were to retaliate, east Asia will be set on fire. And the conflagration may not end there as opportunistic powers
elsewhere may try to overturn the existing world order. With the US distracted, Russia may seek to redefine Europe's political
landscape. The balance of power in the Middle East may be similarly upset by the likes of Iraq. In south Asia, hostilities
between India and Pakistan, each armed with its own nuclear arsenal, could enter a new and dangerous phase. Will a
full-scale Sino-US war lead to a nuclear war? According to General Matthew Ridgeway, commander of the US Eighth Army which fought against the Chinese in the Korean War, the US had at the time thought of using nuclear
weapons against China to save the US from military defeat. In his book The Korean War, a personal account of the military and political aspects of the conflict and its implications on future US foreign policy, Gen Ridgeway said that
US was confronted with two choices in Korea -truce or a broadened war, which could have led to the use of nuclear weapons. If the US had to resort to nuclear weaponry to defeat China long before the latter acquired a similar

capability, there is little hope of winning a war against China 50 years later, short of using nuclear weapons. The US estimates that China possesses
                                                                                                                                                                             Beijing was considering a
about 20 nuclear warheads that can destroy major American cities. Beijing also seems prepared to go for the nuclear option. A Chinese military officer disclosed recently that

review of its "non first use" principle regarding nuclear weapons. Major-General Pan Zhangqiang, president of the military-funded Institute for Strategic Studies, told a
gathering at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington that although the government still abided by that principle, there were strong pressures from the military to drop it. He said military

leaders considered the use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the country risked dismemberment as a result of foreign
intervention. Gen Ridgeway said that should that come to pass, we would see the destruction of civilisation.




                                                                          Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 50
SCFI 2010                                                                                                           Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                        ___ of ___
                                        NEG - Okinawa Good: Deters China
Soldiers in Okinawa act as a tripwire
Bush in 2010 (Richard C., March 10th, director at the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, ―Okinawa and Security in East Asia‖,
http://www.brookings.edu/speeches/2010/0310_japan_politics_bush.aspx)


Taiwan also has concerns. The Marines on Okinawa, plus the U.S. air force, serve to strengthen deterrence in the
event of aggression by China against Taiwan. China will be less likely to mount an attack because the U.S. has both
ground troops and an air base on Okinawa. If China attacked U.S. installations on Okinawa, that almost ensures a
serious conflict. The bases act as a tripwire.




                                                Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                              51
SCFI 2010                                                                                                                Okinawa Affirmative
Consult Yo Momma                                                                                                                               ___ of ___
                                              NEG - Politics - Plan Unpopular
Staying in Okinawa has bipartisan support - both parties are against the plan
Mainichi Daily June 23rd "U.S. Lawmakers Submit Resolution to Express Gratitude to Okinawa," The Mainichi Daily News, June 23rd 2010,
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20100623p2g00m0in032000c.html

A group of bipartisan lawmakers submitted a resolution Tuesday to the U.S. House of Representatives to express gratitude to the
Japanese people, especially to the people of Okinawa, for hosting the U.S. military. The House could take a vote on the resolution on
Wednesday, the 50th anniversary of the bilateral security treaty entering into force, parliamentary sources said. The draft resolution says the "robust
forward presence" of the U.S. military in Japan "provides the deterrence and capabilities necessary for the defense of Japan and
for the maintenance of Asia-Pacific peace, prosperity and regional stability." The resolution "recognizes that the broad support and understanding of the
Japanese people are indispensable for the stationing" of the U.S. military in Japan and " expresses its appreciation to the people of Japan, and especially
on Okinawa, for their continued hosting" of the U.S. armed forces, it says. The text also touched on a joint statement released by the Japanese
and U.S. governments in May that reconfirmed their commitment to a 2006 bilateral accord on the realignment of U.S. forces in Japan, which includes a plan to
relocate the U.S. Marines Corps' Futenma base within Okinawa.




                                                  Because mothers know best
                                                                                                                                                         52

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Stats:
views:379
posted:1/10/2011
language:English
pages:52