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AP Statistics

VIEWS: 91 PAGES: 6

									2010-2011 AP Statistics
Instructor: Aaron Wisman
Email: aaron.wisman@desaleshs.com
Course Website: http://intranet.desaleshighschool.com/Wisman/APStats/home.htm
Course Title: AP Statistics
Program Area: Math
Grade Level: 11 – 12
Credit: 1 credit
Meeting Location: Room 200
Prerequisites: Successful completion of Algebra II
Text: Bock, DE, Velleman, PF, & De Veaux, RD. (2004). Stats: modeling the world. Boston, MA: Pearson Addison Wesley.

Required Course Materials:
      -Students must keep a binder with four sections (Lecture / Reading Notes, Card Quizzes,
             Assignments, & Quizzes / Tests.) The binder should include lined notebook paper, as
             well as graph paper! This syllabus should be kept at the front of the binder!
      -Mini-tab 15 (Computer Software Package)
      -Graphing Calculator (≥ TI-83)
      -Text

Course Description:

The topics for AP Statistics are divided into the following four major units:

         I.       Exploratory Analysis (20-30 % of the exam)
         II.      Planning and Conducting a Study (10-15% of the exam)
         III.     Probability (20-30 % of the exam)
         IV.      Statistical Inference (20-30 % of the exam)

On completion of this course the student will have an understanding of the general ideas underlying the
analysis of data for a broad spectrum of application. The student will become familiar with appropriate
techniques of data collection, and gain experience in data analysis and interpretation, as well as written
and verbal communication of those analyses by using the language of statistics. Successful completion
of this course will give the student the tools necessary to successfully complete the AP Statistics Exam,
which could reward college credit toward a basic statistics course required for a vast range of degree
programs.

Throughout the course, students will learn to appreciate accuracy and the art of communication of
statistical concepts, including effective communication of how methods, results and interpretations of
data can be justified. Students will learn to appreciate the importance of writing responses using the
appropriate statistical vocabulary as a critical piece of gaining statistical proficiency. Proficient
statistical communication will be emphasized on all assignments, activities, and especially on projects
and exams. Students will gain further proficiency by using rubrics for reviewing each other’s writing,
which should help the student develop an understanding of the elements of an effective response to the
AP Statistics free-response questions.

Technologies

The course will focus on the application of statistical procedures to actual experimental situations and
data sets. The statistical software package, Minitab, as well as the TI-83 / TI – 84 graphing calculator,
as well as various other technologies will be used for data analysis and to enhance the development of
statistical understanding through performing simulations. All assignments, projects, exams, and
coursework will incorporate the use of these technologies as a means to enhance the development of
statistical understanding. Familiarity with personal computers and a good algebra background is
assumed of the student.

Every unit in this course is designed with the use of technology in mind to help the student further
develop statistical understanding. The TI graphing calculators will be used on a daily basis for class
work, homework, projects, etc. Minitab statistical software will be downloaded onto each student’s lap-
top as well. The use of Minitab and other computer based software packages will enhance the
understanding of the statistical processes and applications.

Projects

Several projects will be assigned throughout the course of the year to further develop and enforce
connections between all aspects of the statistical process, including design, analysis, and conclusions, as
well as being able to communicate these processes using appropriate statistical vocabulary. Two
examples are given below:

       Example 1 – Planning and Conducting a Survey of a Qualitative Variable
       Students will explore the practice of data collection and analysis by designing and conducting a
       survey of some qualitative variable(s). Students must propose their own survey and justify their
       purpose and their methods. Students will be required to clearly define their variable, plan and
       implement the survey, summarize their data appropriately, and present their data, as well as any
       conclusions, to the class for discussion.

       Example 2 – Flood Frequency Analysis
       Students will collect data on stream or river discharge (made available through the USGS
       webpage) and explore various ways to analyze this data using different methods of summarizing
       the data, including the calculations and interpretations of descriptive statistics and various
       graphic presentations. Students will prepare written and graphic summaries of such analysis and
       submit these summaries along with data presentations created with the technological tools
       described above; in addition, students will use these statistical models to infer predictions.

Method(s) of Evaluation:

There will be a total of five (5) end-of-unit exams taken over the course of the year, each worth 100
points. In addition to these five unit exams, there will be a cumulative mid-term exam at the end of the
first semester; worth 200 points. (The AP Statistics Exam at the end of the school year will serve as the
cumulative final at the end of the year, and will not be scored for a grade in this course.) There will also
be a total of 18 homework assignments, worth 20 points a piece. (Roughly one every two weeks) These
will be a conglomeration of assignments from the text, some problems created by the instructor, and
downloaded from APcentral.com, intended to model the format of the AP Exam. Each student will be
required to complete several projects as well, worth a total of 140 points. In addition, each student will
receive a grade for keeping an organized binder for a maximum of 100 points over the course of the
year. Finally, an additional 100 points may be earned for attendance and class participation, in
discussion and other classroom activities. The total number of points available in the course is 1400.
Letter grades will be determined by the total points earned in the course.

        Grade                                                       Total Points
        5 unit exams                                                500
        Mid-Term exam                                               200
        18 Homework assignments                                     360
        Projects (including a cumulative research project)          140
        Card Quizzes / Binder                                       100
        Daily Participation                                         100
        Total                                                       1400

Other forms of formative assessment practices will be integrated into the course as well, and shall be
used to assist both the student and the teacher in recognizing gaps in understanding – but will not
necessarily contribute to a student’s grade. An example of such an informal assessment will be the use
of periodic “card quizzes” designed to provide practice in the appropriate use of statistical language and
communication.

Grading Policy:

The maximum percentage cutoffs for letter grades A/B/C/D are 90/80/70/60 %, respectively, of the total
points. These cut off points will not be raised, but at the discretion of the instructor may be lowered at
the end of each semester. There will be NO extra credit offered to any individual in this course. There
will be some mandatory extra credit. No academic misconduct will be tolerated.

*Late assignments will not be accepted (excepting the event of an excused absence).

                               AP Statistics: Tentative Course Schedule

Semester I                                                                Chapters in Text

Unit I – Exploratory Analysis & Planning and Conducting a Study

   A.      Introduction to Statistics – What are they, and what do we                       1
           do with them? (2-3 days)
           Acquiring and familiarizing with Mini-tab (1-2 days)

   B.      Types of Variables and graphic presentation of Qualitative Data                2,3
           (2.5 weeks)
           1. Nominal
           2. Ordinal
                   i. Discrete
                  ii. Continuous
           3. Univariate vs. Multivariate data
           4. Symbolic Representation
           5. The Area Principle and the Graphic Presentation of Data
                          i. Bar graphs, pie charts, and contingency tables.
                         ii. Minitab / TI Graphing Calculator Applications
    C. Sampling and Planning a Study – a review of methods
                  i. Bias in Sampling
                 ii. Simple and Stratified Random Samples
               iii. Cluster Sampling
                iv. Control Groups
                 v. Treatments
                vi. Blocking and Random Assignment
               vii. Sampling Distributions

    D. Descriptive Statistics and Graphic Presentation of Quantitative Data 3,4,5,
          a. Descriptive Statistics (1.5 weeks)
                   i. Summary Statistics / Measures of Center and Spread.
                         1. Quantitative variables (mean, median, etc.)
                         2. Nominal variables (information statistic, etc.)
                  ii. Mini-tab / TI Graphing Calculator Applications
                 iii. Using Descriptive statistics to summarize data sets
          b. Graphic Presentation and Interpretation of Quantitative Data
                   i. Histograms
                  ii. Relative frequency polygon
                 iii. Cumulative frequency polygon
                 iv. Box Plots
                  v. Other kinds of graphical displays (stem and leaf, etc.)
                 vi. Appropriate use and interpretation of these presentations.
                vii. Mini-tab / TI Graphing Calculator Applications

Unit Exam I --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Unit II – Probability & Anticipating Patterns

    A. The Normal Model and the Standard Deviation as a Ruler                                 6,7
    B. Probability theory and its applications                                                14,15,
          1. Definition of Probability (1 day)                                                17
          2. Counting methods (1.5 weeks)
               viii. Permutations, Combinations, Arrangements, etc.
          3. 8 Rules of Probability (2 weeks)
                          i. Range
                         ii. Complementary probability
                       iii. Decomposition of a probability
                        iv. Conditional probability
                         v. Independence
                        vi. Multiplication rule
                       vii. Bayes’ rule
                      viii. Addition rule
                        ix. TI – Graphing Calculators for simulations

            4. Random variables and their properties (2 weeks)              11,14,
                  a. Joint Probability Distributions                        16
                  b. Properties of discrete and continuous random variables
                  c. Expectation of a Random Variable
                         i. Mean and Variance
                  d. Combining Random Variables
            5. Probability Distributions (5 weeks)                            14,17,
                  a. General Rules                                            18
                           i. Discrete Distributions (Binomial, Poisson)
                          ii. Mini-tab / TI Graphing Calculator Simulations
                         iii. Continuous Distributions (Normal, Chi Square, t, F)
                         iv. Mini-tab / TI Graphing Calculator Simulations
                          v. Literature Review Project

Unit Exam II-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

            Review for Mid-Term exam (2 days)

Mid-Term Exam -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Semester II

Unit III – Statistical Inference I

    A. Estimation (point and interval) and                                                    19
          Confidence Intervals (4 weeks)
                b. Means
                c. Proportions
                d. Count
                e. Mini-tab / TI Graphing Calculator

Unit Exam III -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Unit IV – Statistical Inference II

    A. Hypothesis testing (4 weeks)                                                           20,21,
         a. Parametric tests                                                                  22,23
                i. One sample tests                                                           24
                        1. Mean: one sample t-test
                        2. Proportion: Binomial test
                        3. Count: Poisson test
                        4. Mini-tab / TI Graphing Calculator


                     ii. Two sample tests
                           1. Means: two sample t-test
                           2. Proportions:
                                 a. Normal approximation procedure
                                 b. 2x2 contingency table
                                 c. Exact test
                           3. Counts: Poisson two sample tests
                           4. Mini-tab / TI Graphing Calculator

    B. Analysis of Contingency Tables (2 weeks)                                               26
         b. Tests of goodness of fit
         c. Tests of independence
         d. Mini-tab / TI Graphing Calculator
Unit Exam IV -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Unit V – Inference from Regression

    A. Linear regression (4 weeks)                                                           8,9,
         i. Testing Assumptions                                                              26,27
        ii. Transformation of variables                                                      28,29
       iii. Mini-tab / TI Graphing Calculator Applications
            and Simulations
       iv. Multiple Regression
        v. Logistic Regression
       vi. Mini-tab / TI Graphing Calculator Applications

    B. Correlation analysis (3 week)
        i. Mini-Tab / TI Graphing Calculator Applications

Unit Exam V---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Review for AP Exam! (1 week)


Information on the AP Exam (Taken directly from the AP Student Handbook)

The AP Statistics Exam is three hours long and seeks to determine how well a student has mastered the
concepts and techniques of the subject matter of the course. This paper-and-pencil exam consists of (1)
a 90-minute multiple-choice section testing proficiency in a wide variety of topics, and (2) a 90-minute
free-response section requiring the student to answer open-ended questions and to complete an
investigative task involving more extended reasoning. In the determination of the grade for the exam,
the two sections will be given equal weight.

Each student will be expected to bring a graphing calculator with statistical capabilities to the exam.
Minicomputers, pocket organizers, electronic writing pads (e.g., Newton), and calculators with
QWERTY (i.e., typewriter) keyboards will not be allowed. Calculator memories will not be cleared.
However, calculator memories may be used only for storing programs, not for storing notes. During the
exam, students are not permitted to have access to any information in their graphing calculators or
elsewhere that is not directly related to upgrading the statistical functionality of older graphing
calculators to make them comparable to statistical features found on newer models.

Acceptable upgrades include improving the calculator’s computational functionalities and/or graphical
functionalities for data that students key into the calculator while taking the exam. Unacceptable
enhancements include, but are not limited to, keying or scanning text or response templates into the
calculator. Students attempting to augment the capabilities of their graphing calculators in any way other
than for the purpose of upgrading features as described above will be considered to be cheating on the
exam. A student may bring up to two calculators to the exam.


        Your AP Exam date is _________________________!

								
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