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Monetary Policy Report diagram Interbank Rates

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Monetary Policy Report diagram Interbank Rates Powered By Docstoc
					MPR 2008:2



   03.06.2008
         1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands
                     Per cent, quarterly averages

7                                                                        7
         90%
6        75%                                                             6
         50%
5        Repo rate                                                       5

4                                                                        4

3                                                                        3

2                                                                        2

1                                                                        1

0                                                                        0
    04     05        06      07      08      09     10        11



                                                         Source: The Riksbank
            2. CPI with uncertainty bands
                Annual percentage change

6                                                                 6

5         90%                                                     5
          75%
          50%
4         CPI                                                     4

3                                                                 3

2                                                                 2

1                                                                 1

0                                                                 0

-1                                                                -1
     04   05    06     07     08       09      10       11



                             Sources: Statistcs Sweden and the Riksbank
            3. GDP with uncertainty bands
          Annual percentage change, seasonal adjusted

6                                                                     6
           90%
           75%
5          50%                                                        5
           GDP
4                                                                     4

3                                                                     3

2                                                                     2

1                                                                     1

0                                                                     0

-1                                                                    -1
     04    05     06      07     08       09      10       11



                                Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
                     4. Oil price, Brent crude
                                   USD per barrel

140                                                                                    140
            Oil price, outcome

120         Futures, average up to and including 16-01-2008                            120
            (M PR 2008:1)
            Futures, average up to and including 11-04-2008
100         (M PU April 2008)                                                          100
            Futures, up to and including 27-06-2008 (M PR
            2008:2)
80                                                                                     80

60                                                                                     60

40                                                                                     40

20                                                                                     20

 0                                                                                     0
      00   01     02      03      04       05       06        07   08   09   10   11



                                    Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
           5. Nominal and real oil price
                USD per barrel (Brent)


140                                                                 140
                                          Oil price
120                                       Real oil price            120

100                                                                 100

80                                                                  80

60                                                                  60

40                                                                  40

20                                                                  20

 0                                                                  0
      70   75   80        85      90      95        00     05



                     Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbanken
                     6. Commodity prices
                  USD, annual percentage change

100                                                                100
           Food
80         Other agricultural products                             80
           M etals
60         Totaly                                                  60

40                                                                 40

20                                                                 20

 0                                                                 0

-20                                                                -20

-40                                                                -40
      00            02                   04   06          08



                                                   Source: The Economist.
                7. CPI and GDP in OECD
                 Annual percentage change

4,5                                                                  4,5
                                     GDP, OECD
4,0                                  CPI, OECD                       4,0

3,5                                                                  3,5

3,0                                                                  3,0

2,5                                                                  2,5

2,0                                                                  2,0

1,5                                                                  1,5

1,0                                                                  1,0

0,5                                                                  0,5

0,0                                                                  0,0
      00   01    02   03   04   05     06        07   08   09   10



                                            Sources: OECD and the Riksbank
8. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole
      Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

9                                                                         9
8                                            Unit labour costs            8
                                             Productivity
7                                            Labour costs per hour
                                                                          7
6                                                                         6
5                                                                         5
4                                                                         4
3                                                                         3
2                                                                         2
1                                                                         1
0                                                                         0
-1                                                                        -1
     94    96      98     00     02     04        06       08        10


                               Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
9. Actual and trend productivity growth in
         the economy as a whole
          Annual percentage change, seasonal adjusted data

5                                                                        5
                                      M PR 2008:2
4                                     M PR 2008:1                        4
                                      HP-trend
3                                                                        3

2                                                                        2

1                                                                        1

0                                                                        0

-1                                                                       -1

-2                                                                       -2
     04      05      06      07      08       09      10       11


                                    Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
    10. Food, energy and mortgage costs in the CPI
                               Annual percentage change


     35                                                                                   35
     30            M ortgage costs (4.5% )                                                30
                   Energi (8.9% )
     25            Food (16.8% )                                                          25
     20                                                                                   20
     15                                                                                   15
     10                                                                                   10
      5                                                                                   5
      0                                                                                   0
     -5                                                                                   -5
   -10                                                                                    -10
   -15                                                                                    -15
          00        01        02         03         04         05     06    07      08


Note. The weight of the respective components is given in brackets.    Source: Statistics Sweden
        11. CPI, outcome and forecasts on different
                        occasions
                             Annual percentage change

    5                                                                                       5
                                       M PR 2008:2
                                       M PU April 2008
    4                                  M PR 2008:1                                          4

    3                                                                                       3

    2                                                                                       2

    1                                                                                       1

    0                                                                                       0

   -1                                                                                       -1
        00    01     02      03     04     05      06     07       08   09    10    11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
                                                    Sources:   Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
           12. Food prices at different stages
                      Annual percentage change

60                                                                         60
           The Economist commodity price index for food
50         Food in the ITPI                                                50
           Food in the CPI
40                                                                         40

30                                                                         30

20                                                                         20

10                                                                         10

 0                                                                         0

-10                                                                        -10

-20                                                                        -20
      00   01       02        03     04      05      06   07      08


                                    Sources: The Economist and Statistics Sweden.
                                13. CPI and CPIF
                             Annual percentage change

    5                                                                                        5
                  CPI
                  CPIF
    4                                                                                        4

    3                                                                                        3

    2                                                                                        2

    1                                                                                        1

    0                                                                                        0

   -1                                                                                        -1
        00     01      02     03      04      05      06        07    08    09    10    11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
                                                    Sources:   Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
   14. Labour force and number of employed
                 Thousands, seasonally adjusted data

5000                                                                             5000
             Labour force (EU definition)
             Labour force (ILO definition)
4800         Employed (EU definition)                                            4800
             Employed (ILO definition)

4600                                                                             4600

4400                                                                             4400

4200                                                                             4200

4000                                                                             4000

3800                                                                             3800
       80   83     86       89      92       95   98   01    04    07    10



                                             Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
            15. Percentage of unemployed
     Percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data

14                                                                        14
                                          Unemployment (ILO definition)
12                                        Unemployment (EU definition)    12

10                                                                        10

8                                                                         8

6                                                                         6

4                                                                         4

2                                                                         2

0                                                                         0
     80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12



                                 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
                                         16. GDP
                    Quarterly changes in per cent calculated
                   as an annual rate, seasonally adjusted data

    7                                                                                         7
                                                                 GDP according to NA 2007:3
    6                                                            Forecast, M PR 2008:1        6
                                                                 GDP according to NA 2007:4
    5                                                            Forecast April 2008          5
                                                                 GDP according to NA 2008:1
                                                                 Forecast, M PR 2008:2
    4                                                                                         4

    3                                                                                         3
    2                                                                                         2

    1                                                                                         1

    0                                                                                         0

   -1                                                                                         -1
        00    01     02      03     04      05     06      07      08    09     10     11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
                                                    Sources:   Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
               17. Growth in the World and Sweden
            Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data

    6                                                                                          6
    5                                                                                          5
    4                                                                                          4
    3                                                                                          3
    2                                                                                          2
    1                                                                                          1
    0                                                                                          0
   -1           Sweden                                                                         -1
                The World
   -2                                                                                          -2
   -3                                                                                          -3
        1980        1985          1990          1995          2000           2005       2010


                                              the Riksbank's forecast.
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent Sources: IMF, Statistics   Sweden and the Riksbank.
18. GDP for the United States and the euro area
 Quarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate,
                 seasonally adjusted data


 8                                                                         8
 7                                                           USA           7
 6                                                           Euro area     6
 5                                                                         5
 4                                                                         4
 3                                                                         3
 2                                                                         2
 1                                                                         1
 0                                                                         0
-1                                                                         -1
-2                                                                         -2
     00   01    02    03    04   05    06   07    08   09    10    11



               Sources: Eurostat, Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Riksbank
                                     19. Exports
       Quarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate

    20                                                                                        20
                                                                               M PR 2008:1
    15                                                                         M PR 2008:2    15

    10                                                                                        10

      5                                                                                       5

      0                                                                                       0

     -5                                                                                       -5

   -10                                                                                        -10
          00   01      02     03      04     05      06        07   08    09      10     11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
                                                    Sources:   Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
                20. TCW exchange rate
                   Index, 18.11.92 = 100

136                                                              136
                                       TCW-index
134                                    TCW-prognos PPR 2008:2    134
                                       TCW-prognos PPR 2008:1
132                                                              132

130                                                              130

128                                                              128

126                                                              126

124                                                              124

122                                                              122

120                                                              120
      04   05     06    07      08     09      10        11



                                                     Source: The Riksbank
                    21. Interest rates in Sweden
                                        Per cent

6                                                                                                   6
          Variable mortgage rate
5         Expected repo rate                                                                        5
          Difference between variable mortgage rate and expected repo rate

4                                                                                                   4


3                                                                                                   3


2                                                                                                   2


1                                                                                                   1


 0                                                                                                  0
jan/ 04   jul/ 04   jan/ 05   jul/ 05   jan/ 06   jul/ 06   jan/ 07   jul/ 07   jan/ 08   jul/ 08



                                                            Sources: Ecowin and the Riksbank
            22. Households' disposable incomes,
                consumption and saving ratio
 Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable
                               income


7                                                                             14
                                               Consumption (left scale)
6                                              Disposal income (left scale)   12
                                               Saving ratio (right scale)
5                                                                             10

4                                                                             8

3                                                                             6

2                                                                             4

1                                                                             2

0                                                                             0

-1                                                                            -2
     94    96      98      00     02      04       06       08        10


                                   Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
                                 23. Investments
       Quarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate

    15                                                                                      15

    10                                                                                      10

      5                                                                                     5

      0                                                                                     0

     -5                                                                                     -5
                                                                         M PR 2008:1

   -10                                                                   M PR 2008:2        -10

   -15                                                                                      -15
          00   01      02     03      04     05      06        07   08      09    10   11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
                                                    Sources:   Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
     24. Public sector consumption expenditure
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of GDP

6                                                                          30
                              Annual percentage change (left scale)
5                                                                          29
                              Percentage of GDP (right scale)
4                                                                          28

3                                                                          27

2                                                                          26

1                                                                          25

0                                                                          24

-1                                                                         23

-2                                                                         22
     94   96     98     00      02       04       06        08        10


                             Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
                25. General government net lending
                             Proportion of GDP, per cent

      4                                                                                     4

      2                                                                                     2

      0                                                                                     0

     -2                                                                                     -2

     -4                                                                                     -4

     -6                                                                                     -6
                                                                     Financial balance
     -8                                                                                     -8

   -10                                                                                      -10
           94       96        98        00       02        04        06      08      10


Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:   Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
        26. Repo rate forecasts on different occasions
                                             Per cent

    6                                                                                  6

                   M PR 2008:2
    5                                                                                  5
                   M PU April 2008
    4                                                                                  4

    3                                                                                  3

    2                                                                                  2

    1                                                                                  1

    0                                                                                  0
        04        05          06          07            08   09   10        11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.                  Source: The Riksbank
   Table 1. Inflation, annual average
               Annual percentage change, () = Latest MPU


                                   2007      2008       2009        2010

CPI                                 2.2    3.9 (3.5)   3.5 (2.8)   2.3 (2.3)
CPIX                                1.2    3.0 (2.6)   2.8 (2.4)   2.0 (2.0)
CPIX excl. energy                   1.5    2.0 (2.0)   2.2 (2.2)   2.2 (2.1)
CPI with fixed interest rate        1.5    3.1 (2.8)   3.1 (2.6)   2.3 (2.2)




                                  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
       Table 2. Inflation. 12-month rate
                 Annual percentage change. () = Latest MPU



                                  Sept. 07   Sept. 08    Sept. 09    Sept.-10    Sept. 11
CPI                                 2.2      4.6 (3.8)   3.0 (2.6)   2.2 (2.2)     2.1
CPIX                                1.0      3.8 (3.2)   2.4 (2.3)   2.0 (1.9)     1.9
CPIX excl. energy                   1.4      2.4 (2.4)   2.2 (2.2)   2.2 (2.1)     2.0
CPI with fixed interest rate        1.3      3.9 (3.3)   2.7 (2.5)   2.2 (2.1)     2.1




                                    Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
                                 Table 3. Key figures
      Annual percentage change. unless otherwise specified. ( ) = Latest
                                   MPU


                                                        2007            2008           2009          2010
       GDP. world                                      4.9 (4.9)       4.0 (3.8)     3.9 (4.0)      4.4 (4.5)
       Crude oil price Brent. USD/barrel. annual       73 (73)        123 (103)     137 (102)      136 (100)
       average

       Exchange rate. TCW index. annual average         125.2      122.8 (123.3)   121.9 (122.4) 121.9 (122.5)
       Repo rate. annual average                         3.5           4.4 (4.3)     4.9 (4.3)     4.6 (4.3)
       General government net lending. percentage fo   3.4 (3.4)       3.1 (2.9)     1.3 (1.4)     0.9 (0.9)
       GDP
       GDP                                             2.7 (2.6)       2.1 (2.6)      1.2 (1.8)    2.7 (2.8)
       GDP. calendar-adjusted                          2.9 (2.8)       1.9 (2.4)      1.4 (1.9)    2.4 (2.5)
       No. of employed. 15-74                            2.5           1.4 (1.1)     -0.4 (-0.1)   -0.1 (0.0)
       Unemployment. 15-74 (EU definition)                6.1          5.9 (6.0)      6.5 (6.2)    6.5 (6.3)
       Hourly wage in economy as a whole               3.3 (3.4)       4.4 (4.5)     3.7 (3.8)     3.8 (3.8)
     *Per cent of labour force




Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, National Mediation Office and the Riksbank
Table 4. Repo rate forecast
Per cent. quarterly average values. ( ) = Latest MPU




                    Q2      Q3       Q4       Q3        Q3     Q3
                   2008    2008     2008     2009      2010   2011
      Repo rate    4.25 4.5 (4.3) 4.8 (4.3) 4.9 (4.3) 4.6 (4.3) 4.4




                                              Source: The Riksbank
                         27. Repo rate assumptions
                              Per cent, quarterly averages

    6                                                                              6
                 M ain scenario
    5            Lower interest rates                                              5
                 Higher interest rates
    4                                                                              4

    3                                                                              3

    2                                                                              2

    1                                                                              1

    0                                                                              0
        04        05          06           07           08   09   10     11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.              Source: The Riksbank
                                            28. CPI
                               Annual percentage change

    5.0                                                                               5.0
    4.5               Lower interest rates                                            4.5
    4.0               Higher interest rates                                           4.0
                      M ain scenario
    3.5                                                                               3.5
    3.0                                                                               3.0
    2.5                                                                               2.5
    2.0                                                                               2.0
    1.5                                                                               1.5
    1.0                                                                               1.0
    0.5                                                                               0.5
    0.0                                                                               0.0
          04        05          06         07           08   09   10       11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.                  Source: The Riksbank
                                      29. GDP
            Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

   5                                                                                           5
                                                                    M ain scenario
                                                                    Lower interest rates
   4                                                                                           4
                                                                    Higher interest rates

   3                                                                                           3


   2                                                                                           2


   1                                                                                           1


   0                                                                                           0
       04       05         06         07         08         09         10         11


                                                   1981-2007 Statistics Sweden 3.2 per cent.
Black lines show average GDP growth in the periods Sources: and 1998-2007; 2, 3 and and the Riksbank
                            30. TCW exchange rate
                            Index, 18 November 1992 = 100

    132                                                                                   132

    130                                                           M ain scenario          130
                                                                  Lower interest rates
    128                                                                                   128
                                                                  Higher interest rates
    126                                                                                   126

    124                                                                                   124
    122                                                                                   122

    120                                                                                   120

    118                                                                                   118

    116                                                                                   116
          04        05          06         07           08   09       10           11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.                      Source. The Riksbank
                       31. Real repo rate
                   Per cent, quarterly averages

5                                                                            5
          M ain scenario
4                                                                            4
          Lower interest rates

3         Higher interest rates                                              3

2                                                                            2

1                                                                            1

0                                                                            0

-1                                                                           -1
     04    05          06         07          08        09       10



                                       Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
                    32. Production gap (GDP)
               Percentage deviation from the HP trend

3                                                                              3
                              Lower interest rates
                              Higher interest rates
2                                                                              2
                              M ain scenario

1                                                                              1

0                                                                              0

-1                                                                             -1

-2                                                                             -2

-3                                                                             -3
     98   99   00   01   02   03    04     05   06    07   08   09   10   11



                                         Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
                    33. Labour market gap
               Percentage deviation from the HP trend

3                                                                              3
                                   M ain scenario
                                   Lower interest rates
2                                  Higher interest rates                       2

1                                                                              1

0                                                                              0

-1                                                                             -1

-2                                                                             -2

-3                                                                             -3
     98   99   00   01   02   03   04     05   06    07    08   09   10   11


                                        Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
                   34. Number of hours worked
          Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

4                                                                          4
                                                   Lower interest rates
3                                                  Higher interest rates   3
                                                   M ain scenario
2                                                                          2

1                                                                          1

0                                                                          0

-1                                                                         -1

-2                                                                         -2
     04       05      06     07      08      09       10        11



                                   Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
                       35. Employment rate
                    Per cent, seasonally adjusted data

78                                                                                78

77                                                                                77

76                                                                                76

75                                                                                75

74                                                                                74

73                                                        M ain scenario
                                                                                  73

72                                                        Lower interest rates    72
                                                          Higher interest rates
71                                                                                71

70                                                                                70
     98   99   00    01   02   03   04    05   06   07   08    09    10    11


                                         Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
                       36. Unemployment
      Percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data

11                                                                               11

10                                                  Lower interest rates         10
                                                    Higher interest rates
9                                                                                9
                                                    M ain scenario
8                                                                                8

7                                                                                7

6                                                                                6

5                                                                                5

4                                                                                4

3                                                                                3
     98    99     01     02    04       05     07      08       10          11


                                    Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
  37. Commodity price index excluding energy
                                Index, USD

260                                                                          260
240                                                                          240
                Lower commodity prices
220             M ain scenario                                               220
200                                                                          200
180                                                                          180
160                                                                          160
140                                                                          140
120                                                                          120
100                                                                          100
80                                                                           80
      89   91   93   95    97     99     01   03   05   07    09   11   13


                                         Sources: The Economist and the Riksbank.
    38. GDP, scenario with lower commodity prices
           Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

   5.0                                                                                     5.0
                                                  Lower commodity prices
   4.5                                                                                     4.5
                                                  M ain scenario
   4.0                                                                                     4.0
   3.5                                                                                     3.5
   3.0                                                                                     3.0
   2.5                                                                                     2.5
   2.0                                                                                     2.0
   1.5                                                                                     1.5
   1.0                                                                                     1.0
   0.5                                                                                     0.5
   0.0                                                                                     0.0
         04        05         06        07         08           09      10       11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
                                                    Sources:   Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
        39. Repo rate, scenario with lower commodity
                            prices
                                Per cent, quaterly average

    6                                                                                  6

                 Lower commodity prices
    5                                                                                  5
                 M ain scenario

    4                                                                                  4

    3                                                                                  3

    2                                                                                  2

    1                                                                                  1

    0                                                                                  0
        04        05           06          07           08   09   10         11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.                  Source: The Riksbank
     40. CPI, scenario with lower commodity prices
                             Annual percentage change

    5                                                                                       5
                Lower commodity prices
    4                                                                                       4
                M ain scenario

    3                                                                                       3

    2                                                                                       2

    1                                                                                       1

    0                                                                                       0

   -1                                                                                       -1
        04        05         06         07         08           09       10      11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
                                                    Sources:   Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
             41. Repo rate, scenario with lower growth
                        and higher inflation
                                Per cent, quaterly average

    6                                                                                  6

                 Lower growth, higher inflation
    5                                                                                  5
                 M ain scenario

    4                                                                                  4

    3                                                                                  3

    2                                                                                  2

    1                                                                                  1

    0                                                                                  0
        04        05           06          07           08   09   10         11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.                  Source: The Riksbank
     42. CPI, scenario with lower growth and higher
                        inflation
                             Annual percentage change

   5.0                                                                                     5.0
                Lower growth, higher inflation
   4.5                                                                                     4.5
                M ain scenario
   4.0                                                                                     4.0
   3.5                                                                                     3.5
   3.0                                                                                     3.0
   2.5                                                                                     2.5
   2.0                                                                                     2.0
   1.5                                                                                     1.5
   1.0                                                                                     1.0
   0.5                                                                                     0.5
   0.0                                                                                     0.0
         04        05         06        07         08           09      10       11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
                                                    Sources:   Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
    43. GDP, scenario with lower growth and higher
                       inflation
           Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

   5.0                                                                                     5.0
   4.5                                                    Lower growth, higher inflation   4.5
   4.0                                                    M ain scenario                   4.0
   3.5                                                                                     3.5
   3.0                                                                                     3.0
   2.5                                                                                     2.5
   2.0                                                                                     2.0
   1.5                                                                                     1.5
   1.0                                                                                     1.0
   0.5                                                                                     0.5
   0.0                                                                                     0.0
         04        05         06        07         08           09      10       11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
                                                    Sources:   Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
     44. Production gap (GDP), scenario with lower
              growth and higher inflation
                    Percentage deviation from the HP trend

    3.0                                                                                    3.0
    2.5                                                 Lower growth, higher inflation     2.5
    2.0                                                 M ain scenario                     2.0
    1.5                                                                                    1.5
    1.0                                                                                    1.0
    0.5                                                                                    0.5
    0.0                                                                                    0.0
   -0.5                                                                                    -0.5
   -1.0                                                                                    -1.0
   -1.5                                                                                    -1.5
   -2.0                                                                                    -2.0
          98   99    00    01    02    03    04    05    06      07   08   09   10   11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
                                                    Sources:   Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
 45. Labour market gap, scenario with lower growth
               and higher inflation
                    Percentage deviation from the HP trend

    3.0                                                                                    3.0
                                            Lower growth, higher inflation
    2.5                                                                                    2.5
                                            M ain scenario
    2.0                                                                                    2.0
    1.5                                                                                    1.5
    1.0                                                                                    1.0
    0.5                                                                                    0.5
    0.0                                                                                    0.0
   -0.5                                                                                    -0.5
   -1.0                                                                                    -1.0
   -1.5                                                                                    -1.5
   -2.0                                                                                    -2.0
   -2.5                                                                                    -2.5
   -3.0                                                                                    -3.0
          98   99    00    01    02    03     04   05    06      07   08   09   10   11


Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
                                                    Sources:   Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
      46. Difference between interbank rates and
         government bond rates (TED spread)
                             Basis points

250                                                                        250
            Euro area
            USA
200                                                                        200
            UK
            Sweden
150                                                                        150


100                                                                        100


50                                                                         50


 0                                                                         0
 jan/ 07   apr/ 07      jul/ 07   okt/ 07   jan/ 08    apr/ 08   jul/ 08


                                     Sources: Reuters, Ecowin and the Riksbank.
            47. Basis-spread and Ted-spread
                                   Per cent

6.0                                                                                 6.0
             Treasury bills

5.5          Interbank rate                                                         5.5
             Expected monetary policy
5.0                                                                                 5.0
                                                                     Basis-spread

4.5                                                                                 4.5
                                                                   TED-spread

4.0                                                                                 4.0

3.5                                                                                 3.5

3.0                                                                                 3.0
  jan/ 07   apr/ 07      jul/ 07     okt/ 07   jan/ 08   apr/ 08        jul/ 08


                                                         Source: Reuters Ecowin
48. Spread between interbank rates and expected
         monetary policy (Basis spread)
                              Basis points

120                                                                         120
             Sweden
100                                                                         100
             Euro area
             USA
 80          UK
                                                                            80

 60                                                                         60

 40                                                                         40

 20                                                                         20

 0                                                                          0
 jan/ 07   apr/ 07       jul/ 07   okt/ 07   jan/ 08    apr/ 08   jul/ 08


                                      Sources: Reuters, Ecowin and the Riksbank.
     49. Monetary policy expectations in the United
                         States
                                       Per cent

   6.0                                                                                     6.0
                                           Fed funds 27 June 2008
   5.5                                                                                     5.5
                                           Fed funds
   5.0                                                                                     5.0
                                           Fed funds 23 April 2008
   4.5                                                                                     4.5
   4.0                                                                                     4.0
   3.5                                                                                     3.5
   3.0                                                                                     3.0
   2.5                                                                                     2.5
   2.0                                                                                     2.0
   1.5                                                                                     1.5
   1.0                                                                                     1.0
     jan/ 06      jan/ 07       jan/ 08      jan/ 09       jan/ 10      jan/ 11


Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.
                                                     Sources: Reuters, Ecowin and the Riksbank.
  50. Monetary policy expectations in the euro area
                                       Per cent

   6.0                                                                                     6.0
   5.5                                                                                     5.5
   5.0                                                                                     5.0
   4.5                                                                                     4.5
   4.0                                                                                     4.0
   3.5                                                                                     3.5
   3.0                                                           Refi
                                                                                           3.0
   2.5                                                           Refi 27 June 2008         2.5
   2.0                                                           Refi 23 April 2008        2.0
   1.5                                                                                     1.5
   1.0                                                                                     1.0
     jan/ 06      jan/ 07       jan/ 08      jan/ 09       jan/ 10      jan/ 11


Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.
                                                      Sources: Reuters Ecowin and the Riksbank.
      51. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden
       according to money market participants.
                                         Per cent

      5.5                                                                                 5.5

      5.0                                                                                 5.0

      4.5                                                                                 4.5

      4.0                                                                                 4.0

      3.5                                                                                 3.5

      3.0                    Repo rate                                                    3.0
                             Forward rate curve (STINA/ FRA/ Swaps) 16-06-2008 27 June
      2.5                                                                                 2.5
                             2008
                             Forward rate curve (STINA/ FRA/ Swaps) 16-06-2008 23 April
      2.0                    2008                                                         2.0
                             Survey, Prospera average, 6 June 2008
      1.5                    Survey, Prospera average, 2 April 2008                       1.5

      1.0                                                                                 1.0
        jan/ 06    jan/ 07      jan/ 08        jan/ 09        jan/ 10      jan/ 11



                       Sources: Reuters premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.
Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for riskEcowin, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank
                         52. Two-year interest rates
                                            Per cent

   7                                                                                         7

   6                                                                                         6

   5                                                                                         5

   4                                                                                         4

   3                                                                                         3
                        Sweden
   2                    Euro area                                                            2
                        USA
   1                    UK                                                                   1

   0                                                                                         0
   jan/ 07          apr/ 07           jul/ 07          okt/ 07        jan/ 08     maj/ 08


Note. Government bonds with approximately 2 years left to maturity.        Source: Reuters EcoWin
                       53. Long-term interest rates
                                            Per cent

   6.0                                                                                    6.0

   5.5                                                                                    5.5

   5.0                                                                                    5.0

   4.5                                                                                    4.5

   4.0                                                                                    4.0

   3.5                                                                                    3.5
                                                             Sweden
   3.0                                                                                    3.0
                                                             Euro area
   2.5                                                       USA
                                                                                          2.5

   2.0                                                                                    2.0
     2004                 2005               2006               2007        2008


Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.     Source: Reuters Ecowin
            54. Interbank rates in Sweden
                                Per cent

6.0                                                                                     6.0


5.0                                                                                     5.0


4.0                                                                                     4.0


3.0                                                                                     3.0

                                             Repo rate
2.0                                          Interbank rate                             2.0
                                             M ortgages - SBAB
                                             M ortgages - average
1.0                                                                                     1.0


0.0                                                                                     0.0
  jan/ 07   apr/ 07   jul/ 07      okt/ 07       jan/ 08            apr/ 08   jul/ 08



                                                                        Source: The Riksbank
          55. Exchange rate movements
                    SEK per euro and dollar

10                                                                  10


9                                                                   9
                                                        SEK/ EUR
8                                                       SEK/ USD    8


7                                                                   7


6                                                                   6


5                                                                   5
jan/ 06   jul/ 06      jan/ 07    jul/ 07     jan/ 08     jul/ 08


                                                   Source: Reuters Ecowin
                56. Stock market movements
                       Index, 1 January 1999=100

250                                                                         250
                         Euro area (Euro Stoxx)
230                                                                         230
                         OM X 30, Sweden
210                                                                         210
                         S&P 500, USA
190                                                                         190
170                                                                         170
150                                                                         150
130                                                                         130
110                                                                         110
90                                                                          90
70                                                                          70
50                                                                          50
      99   00     01       02     03       04     05   06     07     08


                                                            Source: Reuters Ecowin
                57. The money supply
                 Annual percentage change

25                                                                  25
                                      M0
20                                    M2                            20
                                      M3
15                                                                  15

10                                                                  10

5                                                                   5

0                                                                   0

-5                                                                  -5
 2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006    2007   2008


                              Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
58. Households’ new saving in deposit accounts or
         shares and unit trusts, quarter
                                  SEK billion

       40                                                                        40
                                  Deposit accounts
                                  Aktier och aktiefonder
       30                                                                        30


       20                                                                        20


       10                                                                        10


        0                                                                        0


      -10                                                                        -10


      -20                                                                        -20
            mar-04 sept-04 mar-05 sept-05 mar-06 sept-06 mar-07 sept-07 mar-08



Source: Note. The households’ new
        Statistics Sweden           saving is the net amount households invest in their
 59. Purchase price coefficient in Sweden as a
                    whole
                    C/I ratio

2.0                                                        2.0

1.9                                                        1.9

1.8                                                        1.8

1.7                                                        1.7

1.6                                                        1.6

1.5                                                        1.5

1.4                                                        1.4

1.3                                                        1.3

1.2                                                        1.2
      03   04       05          06      07            08


                                     Source: Statistics Sweden
      60. House prices and total lending to Swedish
                       households
                              Annual percentage change

       14                                                                                          14


       12                                                                                          12


       10                                                                                          10


        8                                                                                          8


        6                                                                                          6


        4                                               House prices                               4
                                                        Lending to households
        2                                                                                          2


        0                                                                                          0
        2000       2000     2001      2002      2003     2004      2005      2006     2007



Note. Quarterly observations of house prices and monthly observations of lending to households.
                                                   Sources: Statistics Sweden and the             Riksbank
61. Employment and private consumption in the
               United States
                   Annual percentage change

6                                                                        6
                                                   Private consumption
5                                                                        5
                                                   Employment
4                                                                        4

3                                                                        3

2                                                                        2

1                                                                        1

0                                                                        0

-1                                                                       -1

-2                                                                       -2
     00   01      02      03      04      05      06       07      08


               Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Commerce
      62. Economic indicators for the euro area
 Index, December 2005 = 100, and annual percentage change

118                                                                    10
                European Commission Economic Sentiment (left scale)
114             OECD Composite Leading Indicators (right scale)        8

110                                                                    6

106                                                                    4

102                                                                    2

98                                                                     0

94                                                                     -2

90                                                                     -4

86                                                                     -6
      00   01   02       03      04       05      06      07      08


                                      Sources: European Commission and OECD
      63. Confidence indicators for households
                          Net figures

10                                                                 10



 0                                                                 0



-10                                                                -10



-20                                               Euro area        -20
                                                  UK
                                                  Germany

-30                                                                -30
      00   01   02   03       04        05   06     07        08


                                             Source: European Commission
                       64. Consumerprices
                       Annual percentage change

5                                                                             5
                          USA
                          UK
4                                                                             4
                          Euro area

3                                                                             3

2                                                                             2

1                                                                             1

0                                                                             0

-1                                                                            -1
     00       01     02       03      04     05     06      07      08


          Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat, OECD and Statistics Sweden
              65. HICP in the euro area
                Annual percentage change


4                                                                         4
                      Excl. energy, food, alcohol, tobacco
                      Excl. energy
3                     Total                                               3


2                                                                         2


1                                                                         1


0                                                                         0
    00   01   02    03      04        05       06        07     08


                                                              Source: Eurostat
66. Confidence indicators in the business sector
                 Seasonally adjusted balance

 60                                                                      60

 40                                                                      40

 20                                                                      20

  0                                                                      0

 -20                                                                     -20

 -40                                                                     -40
                                            M anufacturing industry
 -60                                        Retail trade                 -60
                                            Private service industries
 -80                                                                     -80
                                            Construction
-100                                                                     -100
       00   01   02     03     04      05      06       07       08


                             Source: National Institute of Economic Research
           67. Gross fixed capital formation
                 Annual percentage change

30                                                                30

20                                                                20

10                                                                10

 0                                                                0

-10                                                               -10

-20                           Housing                             -20
                              Business sector excluding housing
-30                           Public authorities                  -30

-40                                                               -40
      94   96    98     00     02       04       06        08


                              Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank
          68. Foreign trade with goods at fixed prices
           Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

    15                                                                          15
                                 Imports
    10                           Exports                                        10

      5                                                                         5

      0                                                                         0

     -5                                                                         -5

   -10                                                                          -10

   -15                                                                          -15
          00      01        02       03    04     05      06      07      08


Note. Three-month moving averages          Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
     69. Retail sales and household consumption
                        Annual percentage change

10                                                                               10

8                                                                                8

6                                                                                6

4                                                                                4

2                                                                                2

0                                                                                0
                                       Households’ total consumption
-2                                     Households’ consumption of retail goods   -2
                                       Retail sales
-4                                                                               -4
     94         96       98       00         02        04        06        08


          Sources: Statistics Sweden and the National Institute of Economic Research
       70. Household expectations of the future
                             Net figures

80                                                                         80
           Confidence indicator
60                                                                         60
           Unemployment
40                                                                         40

20                                                                         20

 0                                                                         0

-20                                                                        -20

-40                                                                        -40

-60                                                                        -60

-80                                                                        -80
      94   96        98           00      02       04      06       08


                                       Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank
              71. New and unfilled vacant jobs and
                      redundancy notices
                     Thousands, seasonalöly adjusted data

   80                                                                                    24
                                                 New vacancies (left scales)
   70                                            Unfilled vacancies (left scale)         21
                                                 Redundancy notices (right scale)
   60                                                                                    18

   50                                                                                    15

   40                                                                                    12

   30                                                                                    9

   20                                                                                    6

   10                                                                                    3

     0                                                                                   0
         81     84       87         90   93      96        99        02        05   08


Note. Three month moving average.             Source: Swedish Public Employment Service
 72. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of
                      labourft
                Per cent, seasonally adjusted data

80                                                                             80
          M anufacturing industry
70        Retail trade                                                         70
          Private service industries
60        Business sector                                                      60
          Construction sector
50                                                                             50

40                                                                             40

30                                                                             30

20                                                                             20

10                                                                             10

0                                                                              0
     91   93      95       97          99   01     03      05     07      09


                                   Source: National Institute of Economic Research
             73. Capacity utilisation in industry
                    Per cent, seasonally adjusted data

95                                                                                     95
          Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation in industry
          NIER, current capacity utilisation in the manufacturing industry
90                                                                                     90



85                                                                                     85



80                                                                                     80



75                                                                                     75
     81      84       87       90       93       96       99           02    05   08


           Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
                                74. Estimated gaps
                      Percentage deviation from the HP trend

     6                                                                                      6
                                                                     GDP
     4                                                               Hours worked           4
                                                                     Employment

     2                                                                                      2

     0                                                                                      0

    -2                                                                                      -2

    -4                                                                                      -4

    -6                                                                                      -6
         80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12


Note. Broken lines represent thr Riksbank's forecast   Sources:Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
    75. Different agents’ expectations of inflation
                   two years ahead
                       Annual percentage change

4                                                                            4
                   Purchasing managers
                   Social partners
                   M oney market agents
3                                                                            3



2                                                                            2



1                                                                            1



0                                                                            0
    96   97   98     99   00    01    02   03   04    05   06    07   08


                                                     Source: Prospera Research AB
 76. Actual inflation (CPI) and households’ and
 companies’ expectations of inflation one year
                       ahead
                       Annual percentage change

5                                                                          5
                                 CPI
4                                Households, Statistics Sweden             4
                                 Households, NIER
                                 Companies, NIER
3                                                                          3

2                                                                          2

1                                                                          1

0                                                                          0

-1                                                                         -1
     00   01      02      03    04     05      06       07       08   09


          Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
77. The difference between nominal and real five-
         year rates (break-even inflation)
                       Percentage points


3.0                                                                     3.0
                          Break-even inflation
2.5                                                                     2.5

2.0                                                                     2.0

1.5                                                                     1.5

1.0                                                                     1.0

0.5                                                                     0.5

0.0                                                                     0.0
  2000   2001   2002   2003    2004     2005     2006   2007   2008


                                                         Source: The Riksbank
78. The Economist’s commodity price index for
                    food
                         USD

300                                                      300
           Food prices
250                                                      250

200                                                      200

150                                                      150

100                                                      100

50                                                       50

 0                                                       0
      94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08


                                         Source: The Economist.
         79. Prices of goods and services in the CPI
                               Annual percentage change

     4                                                                                        4
                                                   Services (43.5% )
                                                   Goods excluding energy and food (26.3% )
     3                                                                                        3

     2                                                                                        2

     1                                                                                        1

     0                                                                                        0

   -1                                                                                         -1

   -2                                                                                         -2
         00       01          02         03         04         05     06      07       08


Note. The weight of the respective components is given in brackets.    Source: Statistics Sweden
     80. Different measures of underlying inflation
                 Annual percentage change

5                                                                    5
                               CPIX
                               TRIM 85
4                                                                    4
                               CPIX excluding energy
                               CPIX excluding energy and food
3                                                                    3
                               UND24

2                                                                    2

1                                                                    1

0                                                                    0

-1                                                                   -1
     00    01    02   03     04      05       06       07       08


                             Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
             81. Inflation in Sweden and the euro area
                             Annual percenatge change

    5                                                                                              5
                                                               Euro area, HIKP
                                                               Sweden, HIKP
    4                                                                                              4
                                                               Sweden, CPI

    3                                                                                              3

    2                                                                                              2

    1                                                                                              1

    0                                                                                              0

   -1                                                                                              -1
        00      01        02        03        04        05        06        07        08


Note: The series for Sweden refers to the CPI and the series for the euro area refers to HICP.
                                                           Sources:Eurostat and Statistics       Sweden
  82. Food prices for consumers in Sweden and the
                       euro area
                             Annual percentage change

   10                                                                                              10
                                                                             Sweden
     8                                                                       Euro area             8

     6                                                                                             6

     4                                                                                             4

     2                                                                                             2

     0                                                                                             0

    -2                                                                                             -2
         00      01         02        03         04         05        06         07        08


Note: The series for Sweden refers to the CPI and the series for the euro area refers to HICP.
                                                          Sources: Eurostat and Statistics       Sweden
              83. CPI excluding energy and food
                            Annual percentage change

  4.0                                                                             4.0
                                                     USA, CPI
  3.5                                                                             3.5
                                                     Euro area, HICP
  3.0                                                Sweden, HICP
                                                                                  3.0
  2.5                                                                             2.5
  2.0                                                                             2.0
  1.5                                                                             1.5
  1.0                                                                             1.0
  0.5                                                                             0.5
  0.0                                                                             0.0
 -0.5                                                                             -0.5
 -1.0                                                                             -1.0
        00       01        02         03        04        05       06   07   08
Note. HICP for the euro area and Sweden and the CPI for the USA

                   Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and Bureau of Labor Statistics
B1. The repo rate and the interest rate index in the
                       CPI
       Per cent for the respective indices, January 1995 = 100


 120                                                                               10
                                                Interest rate index (left scale)   9
 100                                                                               8
                                                Repo rate (right scale)
                                                                                   7
  80
                                                                                   6
  60                                                                               5
                                                                                   4
  40
                                                                                   3

  20                                                                               2
                                                                                   1
   0                                                                               0
       95   96   97   98   99   00   01   02   03   04    05    06    07     08



                                      Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
B2. Capital stock index in the CPI and the property
      price index for single-family dwellings
                     Annual percentage change


  20                                                                                         20
            Capital stock index
            Property price index for single-family dwellings
  15        Property price index for single-family dwellings - 40 quarters' moving average   15
  10                                                                                         10
   5                                                                                         5
   0                                                                                         0
  -5                                                                                         -5
 -10                                                                                         -10
 -15                                                                                         -15
 -20                                                                                         -20
       90   92     94       96        98       00       02       04       06       08



                                           Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
   B3. CPI, CPIX and CPIF, outcomes and forecasts
                             Annual percentage change

     5                                                                                      5
                                            CPI
     4                                      CPIF                                            4
                                            CPIX
     3                                                                                      3

     2                                                                                      2

     1                                                                                      1

     0                                                                                      0

    -1                                                                                      -1
         00            02             04             06             08          10



Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
                                                    Sources:   Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
            B4. The CPI excluding certain goods
                            Annual percentage change

8                                                                                         8
          CPI excluding meat, electricity, heating oil, interest rates, petrol, fruit
          and vegetables and telecom (78% )
6         M eat, electricity, heating oil, interest rates, petrol, fruit and vegetables   6
          and telecom (22% )
          CPI
4                                                                                         4

2                                                                                         2

0                                                                                         0

-2                                                                                        -2

-4                                                                                        -4
     95           96           97            98           99            00           01


                                              Source: The Riksbank (Inflation Report 2001:2)
        B5. The CPIX including and excluding energy
                               Annual percentage change

    4                                                                                       4
                    CPIX
                    CPIX excluding energy
    3                                                                                       3



    2                                                                                       2



    1                                                                                       1



    0                                                                                       0
        95     96       97       98       99       00       01       02   03   04   05
Note Broken lines represents the forecasts from Inflation report 2003:1

                                                     Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
B6. Nominal and real one-year interest rates 1996-
                      2008
                              Per cent

 8                                                                              8
                                          One-year real interest rate
 7                                        Realised one-year real interestrate   7
                                          Nominal one-year interest rate
 6                                                                              6
 5                                                                              5
 4                                                                              4
 3                                                                              3
 2                                                                              2
 1                                                                              1
 0                                                                              0
-1                                                                              -1
     96   97   98   99   00   01   02    03   04     05    06     07    08


                         Sources: NIER, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank.
 B7. Real repo rate according to the Riksbank's
                    forecasts
                         Per cent, quarterly data

7                                                                            7
               Real repo rate
               Forecast, real repo rate, M PR 2008:2
6              Forecast, real repo rate, M PU April 2008                     6
               Nominal repo rate
5              Forecast, nominal repo rate, M PU April 2008                  5
               Forecast, nominal repo rate, M PR 2008:2
4                                                                            4

3                                                                            3

2                                                                            2

1                                                                            1

0                                                                            0

-1                                                                           -1
     01   02    03      04      05       06      07      08   09   10   11


                             Sources: NIER, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank.
B8. The companies’ answers to questions about
            price developments
                     Net figures

30                                                 30

20                                                 20

10                                                 10

 0                                                 0

-10                                                -10
      Outcomes
      Expectations
-20                                                -20

-30                                                -30
           Sep              Dec       M aj


                                     Source: The Riksbank
          Table A1. Inflation, 12-month
                     figures
                     Annual percentage change, ( ) = Latest MPR




                                  Sept. 07   Sept. 08    Sept. 09    Sept. -10   Sept. -11
CPI                               2.2        4.6 (3.6)   3.0 (2.5)   2.2 (2.3)   2.1
CPIX                              1.0        3.8 (2.9)   2.4 (2.2)   2.0 (2.0)   1.9
CPIX excl. energy                 1.4        2.4 (2.6)   2.2 (2.3)   2.1 (2.2)   2.0
CPI with fixed interest rate      1.3        3.9         2.7         2.2         2.1




                                             Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A2. Change in the CPI compared to the CPIX
    Annual percentage change and percentage points, ( ) = Latest MPR




                                                         2007   2008        2009        2010
 CPIX                                                    1.2    3.0 (2.5)   2.8 (2.2)   2.0 (2.0)
 Effects of changes in mortgage interest expenditure     0.9    0.8 (0.8)   0.6 (0.4)   0.3 (0.3)
 Effects of changes in indirect taxes and subsidies      0.1    0.1 (0.1)   0.2 (0.0)   0.1 (0.0)
 =CPI                                                    2.2    3.9 (3.4)   3.5 (2.5)   2.3 (2.3)




                                                      Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
       Table A3. Summary of financial
                  forecasts
                Per cent, annual average, ( ) = Latest MPR




                                      2007        2008             2009            2010
Repo rate                             3.5         4.4 (4.3)        4.9 (4.3)       4.6 (4.3)
Real repo rate                        1.1         1.6              2.6
10-year rate                          4.2         4.3 (4.5)        4.7 (4.8)       5.0 (5.0)
Exchange rate, TCW index, 19 November
1992=100                              125.2       122.8 (124.1)    121.9 (123.1)   121.9 (122.9)
General government net lending        3.4 (3.1)   3.1 (2.3)        1.3 (1.7)       0.9 (1.6)




                                                                  Source: The Riksbank
Table A4. International conditions
                 I
             Annual percentage change, ( ) = Latest MPR


 GDP                                   2007        2008        2009        2010
 USA                                  2.2 (2.2)   1.4 (1.7)   1.6 (2.5)   3.0 (3.1)
 Japan                                2.0 (1.9)   1.4 (1.5)   1.5 (1.6)   1.6 (1.5)
 Euro area                            2.6 (2.7)   1.7 (1.7)   1.2 (2.0)   1.9 (2.1)
 OECD                                 2.7 (2.7)   1.8 (2.1)   1.8 (2.5)   2.6 (2.7)
 TCW-weighted                         2.8 (2.8)   1.8 (1.9)   1.4 (2.1)   2.0 (2.3)
 World                                4.9 (4.8)   4.0 (4.1)   3.9 (4.2)   4.4 (4.3)


 CPI                                   2007        2008        2009        2010
 USA                                    2.9       4.3 (2.6)   2.8 (1.8)   2.2 (2.2)
 Japan                                  0.0       1.0 (0.2)   1.0 (0.4)   0.5 (0.5)
 Euro area (HICP)                       2.1       3.7 (2.5)   2.7 (2.1)   2.3 (1.9)
 TCW-weighted                           2.0       3.6 (2.4)   2.5 (1.9)   2.1 (1.9)
 OECD                                   2.4       3.4 (2.3)   2.6 (2.0)   2.2 (2.1)


                                        2007        2008        2009        2010
 Crude oil price. USD/ barrel Brent    73 (73)    123 (89)    137 (87)    136 (86)
 Swedish export market growth         3.9 (4.3)   5.1 (5.8)   3.9 (6.2)   5.7 (6.4)



             Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
      Table A5. GDP by expenditure
                 Annual percentage change, ( ) = Latest MPR



                                                   2007         2008         2009        2010
Private consumption                               3.0 (3.1)    2.2 (2.7)    2.0 (2.9)   3.0 (3.2)
Public consumption                                1.1 (0.3)    0.4 (1.0)    1.0 (0.4)   1.2 (1.1)
Gross fixed capital formation                     8.0 (8.0)    5.6 (4.4)    1.1 (1.9)   2.6 (2.4)
Inventory investment, contribution *              0.7 (0.9)   -0.6 (-0.1)   0.0 (0.0)   0.1 (0.1)
Exports                                           6.0 (5.0)    6.6 (5.5)    3.4 (4.8)   5.6 (5.9)
Imports                                           9.6 (9.0)    6.5 (6.2)    4.4 (5.1)   5.6 (5.9)
GDP                                               2.7 (2.5)    2.1 (2.4)    1.2 (2.0)   2.7 (2.8)
GDP, calendar-adjusted                            2.9 (2.8)    1.9 (2.1)    1.4 (2.2)   2.4 (2.5)
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points




                                                 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
 Table A6. Production and employment
   Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified, ( ) = Latest
                                MPR


                                           2007        2008         2009         2010
Population, aged 16-64                    0.9 (0.9)   0.8 (0.4)    0.4 (0.5)   0.2 (0.1)
GDP, calendar-adjusted                    2.9 (2.8)   1.9 (2.1)    1.4 (2.2)   2.4 (2.5)
Number of hours worked, calendar-         3.5 (3.2)   1.3 (1.0)   -0.5 (0.1)   0.0 (0.1)
adjusted
Employed (EU definition)                  2.5 (2.5)   1.4 (1.1)   -0.4 (0.2)   -0.1 (0.1)
Labour force (EU definition)              1.5 (1.5)   1.2 (0.8)    0.2 (0.1)    0.0 (0.1)
Unemployment, 15-74 (EU definition)       6.1 (6.1)   5.9 (5.9)    6.5 (5.9)    6.5 (5.8)
Labour market programmes*                 1.8 (1.8)   1.8 (1.8)    1.8 (1.9)    1.9 (1.8)
*Per cent of labour force




                      Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
  Table A7. Wages and unit labour costs
       for the economy as a whole
    Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data ( ) = Latest MPR


                                                                     2007          2008        2009        2010
  Hourly wage, NM                                                   3.3 (3.6)     4.4 (4.2)   3.7 (4.0)   3.8 (3.8)
  Hourly wage, NA                                                   3.3 (3.8)     4.7 (4.5)   4.0 (4.3)   4.0 (4.1)
  Employer’s contributions*                                         0.4 (-0.1)   -1.2 (0.0)   0.7 (0.0)   0.1 (0.1)
  Hourly labour costs, NA                                           3.7 (3.8)     3.5 (4.5)   4.7 (4.3)   4.1 (4.1)
  Productivity                                                     -0.6 (-0.4)    0.6 (1.1)   1.9 (2.1)   2.4 (2.4)
  Unit labour cost                                                 4.3 (4.2)     2.9 (3.3)    2.8 (2.2)   1.6 (1.6)
*Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points




              Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
   Table A8. Repo rate
         Per cent, annual average




                      2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
M ain scenario         2.2  3.5  4.4  4.9  4.6
Lower interest rates 2.2    3.5  4.3  4.3  4.3
Higher interest rates 2.2   3.5  4.6  5.5  5.1




                                             Source: The Riksbank
        Table A9. CPI
      Annual percentage change




                      2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
M ain scenario         1.4  2.2  3.9  3.5  2.3
Lower interest rates 1.4    2.2  4.0  3.9  3.0
Higher interest rates 1.4   2.2  3.9  3.0  1.4




                 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A10. Real repo rate
                   Per cent




                       2006 2007 2008 2009
 M ain scenario         0.1  1.1  1.6  2.6
 Lower interest rates 0.1    1.1  1.1  1.3
 Higher interest rates 0.1   1.1  2.1  4.1




                    Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
           Table A11. GDP
Annual percentage change. seasonally adjusted data




                         2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
   M ain scenario         4.5  2.9  1.9  1.4  2.4
   Lower interest rates 4.5    2.9  2.0  1.8  2.6
   Higher interest rates 4.5   2.9  1.8  0.9  2.2




                       Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
 Table A12. Number of hours
           worked
Annual percentage change. seasonally adjusted data




                           2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
     M ain scenario         2.0  3.5  1.3 -0.5 0.0
     Lower interest rates 2.0    3.5  1.4 -0.1 0.1
     Higher interest rates 2.0   3.5  1.3 -0.9 -0.3




                        Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A13. Percentage of unemployed 16-64
   years old, according to ILO definition
   Percentage of the labour force. seasonally adjusted data




                              2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
        M ain scenario         7.0  6.2  5.9  6.5  6.5
        Lower interest rates 7.0    6.2  5.8  6.1  6.0
        Higher interest rates 7.0   6.2  5.9  6.8  7.0




                            Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
      Table A14. Lower commodity prices
  Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified



                                                                     2007               2008               2009               2010
  Commodity prices, index USD                                     202 (202)          229 (241)          202 (240)          198 (240)
  Crude oil price, Brent, USD/ barrel                              73 (73)           111 (123)           97 (137)          102 (136)
  GDP                                                              2.9 (2.9)          1.9 (1.9)          1.4 (1.4)          3.0 (2.4)
  CPI                                                              2.2 (2.2)          3.7 (3.9)          2.0 (3.5)          1.5 (2.3)
  Repo rate*                                                       3.5 (3.5)          4.3 (4.4)          3.6 (4.9)          3.7 (4.6)
  Real repo rate*                                                  1.1 (1.1)          2.3 (1.6)          2.1 (2.6)
  TCW-weighted GDP                                                 2.8 (2.8)          1.8 (1.8)          1.4 (1.4)          2.3 (2.0)
  TCW-weighted CPI                                                 2.0 (2.0)          3.3 (3.4)          2.0 (2.5)          1.9 (2.1)
  TCW-weighted interest rate*                                      4.3 (4.3)          4.0 (4.2)          4.1 (4.8)          4.0 (4.5)
   *Per cent, annual average
   Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets. Commodity prices refer to commodities excluding oil products. GDP refers to seasonally-adjusted data.




Sources: Intercontinental Exchange, The Economist, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
        Table A15. Lower growth, higher
                    inflation
Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified



                                                             2007                2008        2009        2010
GDP                                                        2.9 (2.9)           1.8 (1.9)   1.0 (1.4)   2.5 (2.4)
CPI                                                        2.2 (2.2)           4.0 (3.9)   4.1 (3.5)   2.5 (2.3)
Repo rate*                                                 3.5 (3.5)           4.6 (4.4)   5.6 (4.9)   5.2 (4.6)
Real repo rate*                                            1.1 (1.1)           1.5 (1.6)   3.0 (2.6)
TCW-weighted GDP                                           2.8 (2.8)           1.7 (1.8)   1.0 (1.4)   2.1 (2.0)
TCW-weighted CPI                                           2.0 (2.0)           3.6 (3.4)   3.4 (2.5)   2.8 (2.1)
TCW-weighted interest rate*                                4.3 (4.3)           4.4 (4.2)   5.5 (4.8)   5.1 (4.5)
*Per cent, annual average
Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets. GDP refers to seasonally-adjusted data.




                                                          Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

				
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