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BALTIC RIM ECONOMIES WEEKLY Interbank Rates

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					BALTIC RIM
ECONOMIES WEEKLY
 December 30, 2010 No. 329

     •     Estonia sees Euro in 3 days: polls in favour of European currency has dropped
     •     Latvian economy: no further tax increases planned in next three years
     •     Warsaw Stock Exchange sixth-largest in Europe
     •     Eurobarometer: 59% expect new member states to join the euro area by 2015 at the latest

 Main Macroeconomic and Financial Indicators of LATVIA
                                                                    2008       2009       2009                               2010
                                                                                           Q4           Q1          Q2              Q3        Q4
Real sector
Real GDP, yoy, %                                                     -4.2      -18.0      -16.8        -6.0         -2.1         2.9           :
Nominal GDP per capita, EUR thou                                    10.2         8.2        8.2         7.9         7.8          7.9           :
                                              1)
Industrial production index, wda, yoy, %                             -3.9      -15.8       -6.9         7.5        11.7         19.6       21.1 (Oct)
Volume index of construction production, wda, yoy, %                 -3.1      -35.0      -38.5        -43.4       -35.3        -13.1          :
Retail trade (excl. motor vehicles and motorcycles),
                                                                     -7.3      -28.0      -29.9        -12.9        -4.9         2.2       4.9 (Oct)
deflated turnover index, wda, yoy, %
Gross fixed capital formation, yoy, %1)                             -13.6      -37.3      -38.3        -44.4       -35.9         0.0           :
Prices
HICP, eop, yoy, %                                                   10.4        -1.4       -1.4        -4.0         -1.6         0.3       0.9 (Nov)
PPI, eop, yoy, %                                                     9.8        -8.2       -8.2        -2.9         5.7          6.8       3.4 (Nov)
Labour market
Average gross monthly earnings, yoy, %                              20.4        -3.8      -12.0        -8.1         -6.3         -2.0          :
                                                                                                                                18.0
Unemployment rate, sa, LFS, %                                        7.5        17.1       19.9        20.1        19.4                        :
                                                                                                                                (nsa)
External trade & external position
Exports of goods, yoy, %1)                                           1.0       -10.7        5.9        17.3        20.2         21.6           :
                            1)
Imports of goods, yoy, %                                            -12.3      -33.2      -22.9        -1.8        14.5         17.2           :
Current account balance, % of GDP                                   -13.1        8.6       10.7         8.6         5.8         1.0 p          :
FDI inflow, % of GDP                                                 3.7         0.4        1.0        -3.6         1.6          2.3           :
FDI per capita, eop, EUR                                           3594.2      3628.3     3588.1      3712.8      3786.1       3892.1          :
International reserves per capita, eop, EUR                        1634.7      2135.5     2136.9      2477.6      2487.1       2619.1       2719.7
Financial market
                                                                                                                                            14.7/9.7
Average interest rates on new loans in LCU, eop, %2)               14.3/16.8   10.3/7.9   10.3/7.9    13.8/7.0    13.5/10.6    11.4/12.7
                                                                                                                                             (Nov)
Average interest rates on new term deposits in LCU,                                                                                          4.1/0.6
                                                                   10.2/9.6    12.8/7.8   12.8/7.8    8.0/3.0      5.6/1.3      4.7/0.9
eop, %2)                                                                                                                                     (Nov)
Loans to households and non-financial corporations,
                                                                    10.1        -5.9       -5.9        -6.0         -7.2         -6.3      -6.6 (Nov)
eop, yoy, %
Housing loan portfolio, eop, yoy, %                                  5.5        -4.6       -4.6        -4.1         -4.8         -4.4      -4.2 (Nov)
Loans to households and non-financial corporations,
                                                                    83.8        98.0       98.0       100.4        100.5        99.1           :
eop, % of GDP
Deposits, yoy, %                                                     -6.6       -5.1       -5.1         0.9         2.5          9.3           :
Economic sentiments
                                                                                                                                             101.5
Economic sentiments, total index, eop                               82.4        83.7       83.7        92.8        98.7         99.7
                                                                                                                                             (Nov)
                                                                                                                                             -24.0
Consumer sentiments, eop                                            -47.4      -51.8      -51.8        -31.9       -27.3        -27.5
                                                                                                                                             (Nov)
                                         1)                   2)
Note: Latest date is given in parenthesis; at constant prices; long-term/short-term; sectoral statistics has been adjusted to NACE 2.
Abbreviations: GDP – gross domestic product; HICP – harmonized index of consumer prices; PPI – producer price index; FDI – foreign direct
investments; yoy – year-on-year; eop - end-of-period; LFS – Labour Force Survey; LCU – local currency units; wda - data adjusted by working days; sa –
seasonally adjusted, p – provisional value.
Sources: National statistics office, Bank of Latvia, ECB, Eurostat, European Commission




                                                                                                                                                       1
News on Macroeconomics, Finance and Banking
                          After the tax increases planned for 2011, taxes will not be raised anymore in the coming three years, said
Latvian economy: no
tax increases planned     Economy Minister Artis Kampars.
in next three years       Consumption taxes will not be increased anymore, whereas taxes on labor will be reduced in the coming
                          years. The only taxes that will be raised in the coming years are property tax and capital gains tax. "Of
December 28, 2010
                          course, cadastral values will have to be revised so that the property tax is fair to all residents," added
(ELTA)
                          Kampars.
                          As reported, standard value added tax rate will increase from 21 percent to 22 percent next year, whereas
                          reduced VAT rate will increase from 10 percent to 12 percent. Personal income tax rate will reduce from 26
                          percent to 25 percent next year.

                          Latvian national airline ''airBaltic'' has been selected as Top 10 innovator in 2010 among the world's
''airBaltic'' in Top 10
most innovative           airlines by Airlinetrends.com - an independent industry and consumer trends research agency.
airlines in the world     ''airBaltic'' earned recognition as a trendsetter because of successfully extending the brand to taxi
                          (''BalticTaxi'') and bicycle rental services (''BalticBike''). Other recent innovations of ''airBaltic'' include
December 28, 2010
                          ''Apple iPads'' for inflight entertainment (the first airline in Europe), roses offered to passengers while
(ELTA)
                          planes are up in the sky (the first airline in the world), as well as organic and locally grown food for
                          business class passengers.

                          On January 1, Estonia will become the eurozone's 17th member and instantly claim the mantle of the
Estonia to join
                          poorest as well as one of the smallest – representing just over one-tenth of a percent of the bloc's
eurozone as its
                          economy, writes Associated Press.
poorest member
                          Estonia is even vowing to lend a hand, no matter how small, to other members in need. Finance Minister
December 28, 2010
                          Jürgen Ligi said recently that the Baltic state would soon start negotiations with the European Union on
(BBN)
                          granting a loan guarantee of up to 130 million euros to bailed-out Ireland – a major commitment for a
                          nation with a state budget of only six billion euros.
                          The euro isn't loved by everyone: polls show support for adopting the euro has dropped to just above 50
                          percent from nearly 60 percent at its highest. Many believe prices will go up, like they did in other
                          members that joined the bloc. Despite that, Estonians and foreign businessmen take some consolation
                          from the fact that it is generally perceived as the most successful of the Baltic trio.

                          Despite the fact that the average gross salary in Poland are higher than in Lithuania, Lithuanian
Food products more
expensive in the          households pay for basic food products more than their neighbors. In Latvia and Estonia food prices are on
Baltic countries than     average higher than in Lithuania.
in Poland                 In December, most of the food products in Vilnius were more expensive than in Warsaw. From a list of 35
                          items of food products 24 were more expensive in Vilnius in than in Warsaw, only 8 cheaper. In Riga, 17
December 27, 2010
                          products (e.g. meat products, eggs and potatoes) cost more than in Vilnius and 12 products were cheaper
(Delfi.lv,
                          (flour, cabbage, carrots, etc.). In Tallinn, 20 products were more expensive than in Vilnius (dairy products,
produktukainos.lt)
                          sugar, flour, beer, vodka), 13 – cheaper (chicken, sausage, salmon and bread).
                          Food products are subject to 3-7% VAT in Poland, 21% in Lithuania and Latvia, 20% in Estonia.

Spanish firms to flood    This year hasn't even ended, but analysts are already predicting 2011 will be a bullish year for incoming
Polish market in          Spanish firms. Poland will be home to a number of newcomers across various sectors, from banking and
2011?                     hospitality, to construction and transport, according to sources quoted by Puls Biznesu.

December 29, 2010         First, Santander, the largest bank in the euro zone, is edging ever closer toward the purchase of Poland's
(WBJ)                     BZ WBK. Meanwhile, Spanish banking giant La Caixa already operates in Poland and has announced plans
                          to expand. Analysts expect Spanish firms to gain a strong foothold in the Polish market, especially if the
                          Santander deal is deemed a success.

                          At the end of November, the Warsaw Stock Exchange had 396 companies listed on its largest index,
WSE sixth-largest
                          according to the Federation of European Securities Exchanges (FESE).
exchange in Europe
                          This result puts the Polish bourse in fifth place out of twenty European stock exchanges when it comes to
December 28, 2010
                          the number of companies listed. The group of Spanish bourses is in the lead with over 3,350 companies
(WBJ)
                          listed; next in line the LSE boasts 2,676 companies. Poland is closest to the Deutsche Boerse, which has
                          643 companies listed.
                          The WSE, however, drops to sixth place if one takes into account the London Stock Exchange, which is not
                          included in the FESE data. When it comes to capitalization, the WSE's €131 billion at the end of November
                          placed it in ninth position.

                          The latest figures by FDImarkets.com show that Lithuania attracted 10pct more foreign direct investments
Lithuania attracted
10pct more foreign        in January-November 2010 compared with the same period last year.
direct investment         A total of 31 new investment projects have been launched in 2010 in Lithuania, almost 16pct more capital
projects                  than last year. It is expected that these projects will create more than 3400 new jobs in the next few
                          years. In comparison, FDImarkets.com tracked 28 FDI projects which created 5300 new jobs in Lithuania
December 27, 2010
                          in 2009.
(ELTA)
                          Following Western Union and Barclays Bank, the lates FDI projects are those of the Indian company Ideal
                          Invent Technologies Pvt Ltd, specializing in information technologies (IT) in the banking sector, as well as
                          the Irish low-cost airline Ryanair. Ideal Invent Technologies is establishing a Scientific Research and
                          Technology Development Centre in Lithuania which will start its operations in Vilnius this year. The
                          company intends to invest nearly 1 million euros and employ 110 people in the coming 3 years.
                          The online database tracking cross border greenfield investment counts 358 FDI projects of a total value of
                          EUR 8 billion and 48325 new jobs in 2003-2010 in Lithuania.




                                                                                                                                     2
Eurobarometer: Introduction of the euro in the new Member States   ANNEX I




Source: European Commission




                                                                      3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ANNEX II

Interbank                                                                                                                        3-month interbank interest rates, %                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                12-month interbank interest rates, %
                30
interest                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      25


rates
                25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              20



                20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              15


                15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              10

                10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               5
                 5



                 0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2009.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2009.03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2009.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2009.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2009.06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2009.07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2009.08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2009.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2009.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2009.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2009.12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2010.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2010.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2010.03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2010.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2010.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2010.06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010.07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010.08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2010.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2010.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2010.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2010.12
                     2009.01

                                         2009.02

                                                             2009.03

                                                                             2009.04

                                                                                                 2009.05

                                                                                                                 2009.06

                                                                                                                                 2009.07

                                                                                                                                                 2009.08

                                                                                                                                                                2009.09

                                                                                                                                                                                2009.10

                                                                                                                                                                                               2009.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                              2009.12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2010.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2010.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2010.03

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2010.07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010.08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2010.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2010.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2010.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2010.12
                                          EURIBOR                                                                                  TALIBOR                                                                    RIGIBOR                                                                   VILIBOR                                                            WIBOR                                                                         EURIBOR                                                              TALIBOR                                                                      RIGIBOR                                                                   VILIBOR                                                                        WIBOR




Exchange                                                                                         EUR/USD                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         PLN/USD**                                                                                                                                         PLN/EUR*
rates           0.85                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               5.0



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3.7                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4.8

                0.80

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3.4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4.6



                0.75                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3.1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4.4



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2.8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4.2

                0.70

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2.5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4.0



                0.65                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2.2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               3.8
                               2009.01

                                                   2009.02
                                                                   2009.03

                                                                                   2009.04

                                                                                                      2009.05

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                                                                                                                                      2009.07

                                                                                                                                                     2009.08

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2010.05

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2010.07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010.08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2010.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2010.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2010.11

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2009.02
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009.08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2009.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009.11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2009.12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2010.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2010.02
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010.03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2010.04
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2010.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2010.06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2010.07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2010.08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010.09

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2010.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2010.12
Changes per                                                                                                                                                EUR                                                                                                                                              EEK                                                                                                    LVL                                                                                                                                           LTL                                                                                                                                               PLN
week            2010.12.28
                EUR                                                                                        1.0000                                                         -                                                                                15.6466                                                        =                                                                               0.7028                   ↓                                                                          3.4528                                                           =                                                                               3.9840                                                            ↓
                USD                                                                                        0.7579                                                         ↓                                                                                11.9303                                                        ↑                                                                               0.5350                   ↓                                                                          2.6248                                                           ↓                                                                               3.0112                                                            ↓

                 Note: * - scale on the right; ** - scale on the left



Commodity                                                                                                            Brent-oil pric e dynamic s, USD/barrel                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Gold price dynamics, USD/ounce
prices          100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1450



                 90                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1350



                 80                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1250



                 70                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1150



                 60                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1050



                 50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             950


                 40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                850


                 30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                750
                           2009.01

                                                   2009.02
                                                                   2009.03

                                                                                       2009.04

                                                                                                       2009.05

                                                                                                                       2009.06

                                                                                                                                       2009.07

                                                                                                                                                      2009.08

                                                                                                                                                                      2009.09

                                                                                                                                                                                     2009.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2009.12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2010.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2010.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2010.03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2010.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2010.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2010.06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2010.07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2010.08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2010.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2010.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2010.12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2009.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2009.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2009.03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2009.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2009.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009.06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009.07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2009.08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2009.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2009.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2009.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2009.12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2010.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2010.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010.03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2010.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2010.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2010.06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2010.07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2010.08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2010.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2010.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2010.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2010.12




Source: Reuters, EcoWin, national banks

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