The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields by txtdoc

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									WORKING PAPERS SERIES WP05-13

The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields
Lucio Sarno, Daniel Thornton and Giorgio Valente

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6'%3; V=H= ng*)(.#).2.%')3 *28 W#*+'05;o @"%$%+(,0>"2; F` JNO`EK; NGF`= 6"'++#(; W=; V*%&M#++; C=9= *28 j=:= 6)".#2".+0i n,.(S*(8 W*0#3 *28 ,-0-(# Z.+')5B e20#(&(#0'2? 0"# !#(% 30(-)0-(# ./ e20#(#30 W*0#3;o ?0%%#>$*- 62/(0- %$ @"%$%+>" !",>I>,F; N JNO`PK; NcPGDNc= 60.)R; C=4= *28 g=Q= Q*03.2 n!#30'2? /.( V.%%.2 !(#283;o A%B0$2' %C ,L( !+(0>"2$ D,2,>-,>"2' !--%">2,>%$; `P JNO``K; NEOcGNNEc= 60.)R; C=4= *28 g=Q= Q*03.2 n,.(#)*30'2? e2^*0'.2;o A%B0$2' %C E%$(,20F @"%$%+>"-; FF JNOOOK; DOPGPPI= !".(20.2; <=:= n!#303 ./ 0"# $1&#)0*0'.23 45&.0"#3'3B W#3.+A'2? 0"# V*%&M#++G6"'++#( Z*(*8.1;o A%B0$2' %C E%$(FM 10()>,M 2$) ?2$#>$*; /.(0").%'2? JDEEI*K= !".(20.2; <=:= n!#303 ./ 0"# $1&#)0*0'.23 45&.0"#3'3B W#3.+A'2? 6.%# H2.%*+'#3 Q"#2 0"# 6".(0G !#(% W*0# '3 0"# ,#8#(*+ ,-283 W*0#;o A%B0$2' %C ?2$#>$* 2$) G>$2$"(; /.(0").%'2? JDEEIMK= Q*??.2#(; <=,= n6&+'2# g#0".83 /.( $10(*)0'2? e20#(#30 W*0# V-(A#3 /(.% V.-&.2 7.28 Z(')#3;o G()(02' K(-(0I( ?2$# %C !,'2$,2 O%0#>$* 62/(0; Y.= OcGNE JNOOcK=

DO

Figure 1. US bond yields in percentage points (continued ...)
(boldline - McCulloch and Kwon (1993) data sample, dotted line - extended sample)
18

1-month yield

18

2-month yield

18

3-month yield

16

16

16

14

14

14

12

12

12

10

10

10

8

8

8

6

6

6

4

4

4

2

2

2

0

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

0

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

0

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

18

4-month yield

18

6-month yield

18

9-month yield

16

16

16

14

14

14

12

12

12

10

10

10

8

8

8

6

6

6

4

4

4

2

2

2

0

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

0

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

0

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

... Figure 1 continued
(boldline - McCulloch and Kwon (1993) data sample, dotted line - extended sample)
18

12-month yield

18

24-month yield

18

36-month yield

16

16

16

14

14

14

12

12

12

10

10

10

8

8

8

6

6

6

4

4

4

2

2

2

0

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

0

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

0

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

18

48-month yield

18

60-month yield

18

120-month yield

16

16

16

14

14

14

12

12 12

10

10 10

8

8 8

6

6 6

4

4

2

2

4

0

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

0

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

2

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

!

!"#$%&'()*)+#,(,+#%+,(

(
List of other working papers: 2005
1. Shaun Bond and Soosung Hwang, Smoothing, Nonsynchronous Appraisal and CrossSectional Aggreagation in Real Estate Price Indices, WP05-17 2. Mark Salmon, Gordon Gemmill and Soosung Hwang, Performance Measurement with Loss Aversion, WP05-16 3. Philippe Curty and Matteo Marsili, Phase coexistence in a forecasting game, WP05-15 4. Matthew Hurd, Mark Salmon and Christoph Schleicher, Using Copulas to Construct Bivariate Foreign Exchange Distributions with an Application to the Sterling Exchange Rate Index (Revised), WP05-14 5. Lucio Sarno, Daniel Thornton and Giorgio Valente, The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields, WP05-13 6. Lucio Sarno, Ashoka Mody and Mark Taylor, A Cross-Country Financial Accelorator: Evidence from North America and Europe, WP05-12 7. Lucio Sarno, Towards a Solution to the Puzzles in Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?, WP05-11 8. James Hodder and Jens Carsten Jackwerth, Incentive Contracts and Hedge Fund Management, WP05-10 9. James Hodder and Jens Carsten Jackwerth, Employee Stock Options: Much More Valuable Than You Thought, WP05-09 10. Gordon Gemmill, Soosung Hwang and Mark Salmon, Performance Measurement with Loss Aversion, WP05-08 11. George Constantinides, Jens Carsten Jackwerth and Stylianos Perrakis, Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options, WP05-07 12. Elisa Luciano and Wim Schoutens, A Multivariate Jump-Driven Financial Asset Model, WP0506 13. Cees Diks and Florian Wagener, Equivalence and bifurcations of finite order stochastic processes, WP05-05 14. Devraj Basu and Alexander Stremme, CAY Revisited: Can Optimal Scaling Resurrect the (C)CAPM?, WP05-04 15. Ginwestra Bianconi and Matteo Marsili, Emergence of large cliques in random scale-free networks, WP05-03 16. Simone Alfarano, Thomas Lux and Friedrich Wagner, Time-Variation of Higher Moments in a Financial Market with Heterogeneous Agents: An Analytical Approach, WP05-02 17. Abhay Abhayankar, Devraj Basu and Alexander Stremme, Portfolio Efficiency and Discount Factor Bounds with Conditioning Information: A Unified Approach, WP05-01

2004
1. Xiaohong Chen, Yanqin Fan and Andrew Patton, Simple Tests for Models of Dependence Between Multiple Financial Time Series, with Applications to U.S. Equity Returns and Exchange Rates, WP04-19 2. Valentina Corradi and Walter Distaso, Testing for One-Factor Models versus Stochastic Volatility Models, WP04-18 3. Valentina Corradi and Walter Distaso, Estimating and Testing Sochastic Volatility Models using Realized Measures, WP04-17 4. Valentina Corradi and Norman Swanson, Predictive Density Accuracy Tests, WP04-16 5. Roel Oomen, Properties of Bias Corrected Realized Variance Under Alternative Sampling Schemes, WP04-15 6. Roel Oomen, Properties of Realized Variance for a Pure Jump Process: Calendar Time Sampling versus Business Time Sampling, WP04-14

7. Richard Clarida, Lucio Sarno, Mark Taylor and Giorgio Valente, The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates, WP04-13 8. Lucio Sarno, Daniel Thornton and Giorgio Valente, Federal Funds Rate Prediction, WP04-12 9. Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente, Modeling and Forecasting Stock Returns: Exploiting the Futures Market, Regime Shifts and International Spillovers, WP04-11 10. Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente, Empirical Exchange Rate Models and Currency Risk: Some Evidence from Density Forecasts, WP04-10 11. Ilias Tsiakas, Periodic Stochastic Volatility and Fat Tails, WP04-09 12. Ilias Tsiakas, Is Seasonal Heteroscedasticity Real? An International Perspective, WP04-08 13. Damin Challet, Andrea De Martino, Matteo Marsili and Isaac Castillo, Minority games with finite score memory, WP04-07 14. Basel Awartani, Valentina Corradi and Walter Distaso, Testing and Modelling Market Microstructure Effects with an Application to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, WP04-06 15. Andrew Patton and Allan Timmermann, Properties of Optimal Forecasts under Asymmetric Loss and Nonlinearity, WP04-05 16. Andrew Patton, Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence, WP04-04 17. Alessio Sancetta, Decoupling and Convergence to Independence with Applications to Functional Limit Theorems, WP04-03 18. Alessio Sancetta, Copula Based Monte Carlo Integration in Financial Problems, WP04-02 19. Abhay Abhayankar, Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente, Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability, WP04-01

2002
1. Paolo Zaffaroni, Gaussian inference on Certain Long-Range Dependent Volatility Models, WP02-12 2. Paolo Zaffaroni, Aggregation and Memory of Models of Changing Volatility, WP02-11 3. Jerry Coakley, Ana-Maria Fuertes and Andrew Wood, Reinterpreting the Real Exchange Rate - Yield Diffential Nexus, WP02-10 4. Gordon Gemmill and Dylan Thomas , Noise Training, Costly Arbitrage and Asset Prices: evidence from closed-end funds, WP02-09 5. Gordon Gemmill, Testing Merton's Model for Credit Spreads on Zero-Coupon Bonds, WP0208 6. George Christodoulakis and Steve Satchell, On th Evolution of Global Style Factors in the MSCI Universe of Assets, WP02-07 7. George Christodoulakis, Sharp Style Analysis in the MSCI Sector Portfolios: A Monte Caro Integration Approach, WP02-06 8. George Christodoulakis, Generating Composite Volatility Forecasts with Random Factor Betas, WP02-05 9. Claudia Riveiro and Nick Webber, Valuing Path Dependent Options in the Variance-Gamma Model by Monte Carlo with a Gamma Bridge, WP02-04 10. Christian Pedersen and Soosung Hwang, On Empirical Risk Measurement with Asymmetric Returns Data, WP02-03 11. Roy Batchelor and Ismail Orgakcioglu, Event-related GARCH: the impact of stock dividends in Turkey, WP02-02 12. George Albanis and Roy Batchelor, Combining Heterogeneous Classifiers for Stock Selection, WP02-01

2001
1. Soosung Hwang and Models, WP01-16 2. Soosung Hwang and WP01-15 3. Soosung Hwang and WP01-14 4. Soosung Hwang and WP01-13 5. Soosung Hwang and WP01-12 Steve Satchell , GARCH Model with Cross-sectional Volatility; GARCHX Steve Satchell, Tracking Error: Ex-Ante versus Ex-Post Measures, Steve Satchell, The Asset Allocation Decision in a Loss Aversion World, Mark Salmon, An Analysis of Performance Measures Using Copulae, Mark Salmon, A New Measure of Herding and Empirical Evidence,

6. Richard Lewin and Steve Satchell, The Derivation of New Model of Equity Duration, WP0111 7. Massimiliano Marcellino and Mark Salmon, Robust Decision Theory and the Lucas Critique, WP01-10 8. Jerry Coakley, Ana-Maria Fuertes and Maria-Teresa Perez, Numerical Issues in Threshold Autoregressive Modelling of Time Series, WP01-09 9. Jerry Coakley, Ana-Maria Fuertes and Ron Smith, Small Sample Properties of Panel Timeseries Estimators with I(1) Errors, WP01-08 10. Jerry Coakley and Ana-Maria Fuertes, The Felsdtein-Horioka Puzzle is Not as Bad as You Think, WP01-07 11. Jerry Coakley and Ana-Maria Fuertes, Rethinking the Forward Premium Puzzle in a Nonlinear Framework, WP01-06 12. George Christodoulakis, Co-Volatility and Correlation Clustering: A Multivariate Correlated ARCH Framework, WP01-05 13. Frank Critchley, Paul Marriott and Mark Salmon, On Preferred Point Geometry in Statistics, WP01-04 14. Eric Bouyé and Nicolas Gaussel and Mark Salmon, Investigating Dynamic Dependence Using Copulae, WP01-03 15. Eric Bouyé, Multivariate Extremes at Work for Portfolio Risk Measurement, WP01-02 16. Erick Bouyé, Vado Durrleman, Ashkan Nikeghbali, Gael Riboulet and Thierry Roncalli, Copulas: an Open Field for Risk Management, WP01-01 2000 1. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell , Valuing Information Using Utility Functions, WP00-06 2. Soosung Hwang, Properties of Cross-sectional Volatility, WP00-05 3. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell, Calculating the Miss-specification in Beta from Using a Proxy for the Market Portfolio, WP00-04 4. Laun Middleton and Stephen Satchell, Deriving the APT when the Number of Factors is Unknown, WP00-03 5. George A. Christodoulakis and Steve Satchell, Evolving Systems of Financial Returns: AutoRegressive Conditional Beta, WP00-02 6. Christian S. Pedersen and Stephen Satchell, Evaluating the Performance of Nearest Neighbour Algorithms when Forecasting US Industry Returns, WP00-01

1999
1. Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn and Ian Marsh, How do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?, WP99-21 2. Soosung Hwang, John Knight and Stephen Satchell, Forecasting Volatility using LINEX Loss Functions, WP99-20 3. Soosung Hwang and Steve Satchell, Improved Testing for the Efficiency of Asset Pricing Theories in Linear Factor Models, WP99-19 4. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, The Disappearance of Style in the US Equity Market, WP99-18 5. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Modelling Emerging Market Risk Premia Using Higher Moments, WP99-17 6. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Market Risk and the Concept of Fundamental Volatility: Measuring Volatility Across Asset and Derivative Markets and Testing for the Impact of Derivatives Markets on Financial Markets, WP99-16 7. Soosung Hwang, The Effects of Systematic Sampling and Temporal Aggregation on Discrete Time Long Memory Processes and their Finite Sample Properties, WP99-15 8. Ronald MacDonald and Ian Marsh, Currency Spillovers and Tri-Polarity: a Simultaneous Model of the US Dollar, German Mark and Japanese Yen, WP99-14 9. Robert Hillman, Forecasting Inflation with a Non-linear Output Gap Model, WP99-13 10. Robert Hillman and Mark Salmon , From Market Micro-structure to Macro Fundamentals: is there Predictability in the Dollar-Deutsche Mark Exchange Rate?, WP99-12 11. Renzo Avesani, Giampiero Gallo and Mark Salmon, On the Evolution of Credibility and Flexible Exchange Rate Target Zones, WP99-11 12. Paul Marriott and Mark Salmon, An Introduction to Differential Geometry in Econometrics, WP99-10

13. Mark Dixon, Anthony Ledford and Paul Marriott, Finite Sample Inference for Extreme Value Distributions, WP99-09 14. Ian Marsh and David Power, A Panel-Based Investigation into the Relationship Between Stock Prices and Dividends, WP99-08 15. Ian Marsh, An Analysis of the Performance of European Foreign Exchange Forecasters, WP99-07 16. Frank Critchley, Paul Marriott and Mark Salmon, An Elementary Account of Amari's Expected Geometry, WP99-06 17. Demos Tambakis and Anne-Sophie Van Royen, Bootstrap Predictability of Daily Exchange Rates in ARMA Models, WP99-05 18. Christopher Neely and Paul Weller, Technical Analysis and Central Bank Intervention, WP9904 19. Christopher Neely and Paul Weller, Predictability in International Asset Returns: A Reexamination, WP99-03 20. Christopher Neely and Paul Weller, Intraday Technical Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market, WP99-02 21. Anthony Hall, Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Using Bayesian Variable Selection Methods to Choose Style Factors in Global Stock Return Models, WP99-01

1998
1. Soosung Hwang and Stephen Satchell, Implied Volatility Forecasting: A Compaison of Different Procedures Including Fractionally Integrated Models with Applications to UK Equity Options, WP98-05 2. Roy Batchelor and David Peel, Rationality Testing under Asymmetric Loss, WP98-04 3. Roy Batchelor, Forecasting T-Bill Yields: Accuracy versus Profitability, WP98-03 4. Adam Kurpiel and Thierry Roncalli , Option Hedging with Stochastic Volatility, WP98-02 5. Adam Kurpiel and Thierry Roncalli, Hopscotch Methods for Two State Financial Models, WP98-01


								
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