Earned Value - Cal Poly Pomona

Document Sample

```					SC
AC
BAC
EAC
BCWP
ACWP
BCWS
ETC
STWP
ATWP

VARIANCES

Cost (spending) variance (CV)

Schedule variance (SV)

Time variance (TV)

INDICES
CPI
SPI

TPI
CSI

Example

Boeing Earned Value Management System (EVMS)
Variance =
Schedule Variance =
Cost Variance =

Example

Budgeted cost of the work we scheduled to be performed to date (BCWS
Budgeted cost of work performed (BCWP
Actual cost incurred in performing that work (ACWP
Cost Variance (CV) = 300,000 - 350,0
Schedule Variance (SV) = 300,000 - 475,0

Cost Performance Index (CPI) = BCWP/ACWP = 300/3
Schedule Performance Index (SPI) = BCWP/BC

Scheduled Time Work Performed (STWP) can be estimated as follo

Therefore,
Scheduled Cost (at some time t)
Actual Cost (at some time t)
Budget at completion = The total \$ budgeted for the project
Estimated cost at completion = What we expect to spend
Budgeted cost of work performed = earned value
Actual cost incurred in performing that work
Budgeted cost of the work we scheduled to be performed to date = PV
Estimated cost to complete = (BAC ? EV)/CPI
Time scheduled for the work that has been performed
Actual time used to perform that work

Cost Variance = difference between budgeted cost of work performed (BCWP) and actual cost of
that work (ACWP) = BCWP - ACWP
Cost Variance = difference between Scheduled Cost (SC) and Actual Cost (AC) = SC – AC
(negative value - cost overrun)

Schedule Variance = difference between earned value (BCWP) and cost of work we scheduled to
perform to date (BCWS) = BCWP – BCWS (negative value - behind schedule)
Time Variance = difference between time scheduled for work performed (STWP) and actual time
to perform it (ATWP)= STWP - ATWP (negative value - delay)

Cost performance index = BCWP/ACWP (labor productivity)
Schedule performance index = BCWP/BCWS
Time performance index = STWP/ATWP (how long did it take you to take the exam divided how
long I allotted)
Cost schedule index = CPI/SPI ( you want to be greater than 1)

Assume that operations on a Work Package cost \$1,500 to complete. They were originally
scheduled to finish today. At this point, we actually spent \$1,350. And we estimate that we have
completed two thirds (2/3) of the work. What are the cost and schedule variances?
Budget at completion = The total \$ budgeted for the project =   1500
Cost of work we scheduled to perform to date (BCWS) =      1500
BCWP (2/3 completed) =    1000
Actual cost incurred in performing that work (ACWP) =   1350
Cost (spending) variance (CV) = BCWP - ACWP =    -350
Schedule variance (SV) = BCWP - BCWS =    -500
Cost performance index = BCWP/ACWP =       74%
Schedule performance index = BCWP/BCWS =        67%

Spending higher than budget, and given what we have spent, we are not as far along as we should
be (have not completed as much work as we should have)

Value Management System (EVMS)
Planned Budget - Actual Costs
Earned Value - Planned budget
Earned Value - Actual Costs

Also track CPI/SPI based on Budgeted Cost for Work Performed, Actual Cost for Work Performed

A project to develop a country park has an actual cost in month 17 of \$350,000, a planned cost of
\$475,000, and a value completed of \$300,000. Find the cost and schedule variances and the three
indexes.

Budgeted cost of the work we scheduled to be performed to date (BCWS) =        475,000
Budgeted cost of work performed (BCWP) =        300,000
Actual cost incurred in performing that work (ACWP) =     350,000
Cost Variance (CV) = 300,000 - 350,000    -50,000
Schedule Variance (SV) = 300,000 - 475,000    -175,000

Cost Performance Index (CPI) = BCWP/ACWP = 300/350            86%
Schedule Performance Index (SPI) = BCWP/BCWS            63%

Scheduled Time Work Performed (STWP) can be estimated as follows:
Slope of Planned costs =BCWS/17 = 475,000/17 27941.18
Time t = Schedule Variance/Slope of Planned costs =  -6.26

Time Difference= STWP = 17- 6.26       10.74
Actual time used to perform that work (ATWP)          17
Time Performance Index (TPI) = STWP/ATWP = 10.74/17          63%
(negative value - cost overrun)
(negative value - behind schedule)

per month
months
www.oakinc.com/resources/articles.asp

Planned Cost       Planned      Scheduled Finish
Activity                                (Effort-Hours)   Duration (Days)      (Day)
1 Draw plans and materials list                6                1             Day 1
2 Destroy old deck                            12                1             Day 2
3 Truck off trash                              4               0.5            Day 3
4 Purchase materials                           4               0.5            Day 3
5 Dig four footing holes                       8                2             Day 5
6 Pour concrete footings                       4                1             Day 6
7 Construct main deck                         12                3             Day 9
8 Construct railings and stairs                8                2            Day 11
9 Clean-up                                     6                1            Day 12
Total                                         64               12

Notes:
"Costs" are in hours, not \$\$.

Daily and Cumulative Effort vs. Project Schedule
Planned Cost                             70
Day (Effort-Hours)         Cumulative
60
1        6                  6
2       12                  18              50
3        8                  26
40
4                           26
5        8                  34              30
6        4                  38
20
7                           38                            12
8                           38              10    6
6
9       12                  50               0
10                           50
1       2
11        8                  58
12        6                  64
Actual Cost                  Status                  Earned Value
(Effort-Hours)            (Done/Started)             (Effort- Hours)

ulative Effort vs. Project Schedule

64
58
50        50

38       38       38
34
26       26

12 18                                                         12
8                 8                                                       8         6
4
0                          0        0                  0

2       3        4        5        6        7        8        9         10        11        12

Planned Cost (Effort-Hours)                  Cumulative
As of Day 5, we had planned to expend 34 hours (cumulative planned cost) for the first 5 activities.
However, based on actual results, we have expended 36 hours and completed the first four activities.
Activity 5, “Dig footings”, has started, but is not yet finished and it is running over plan.
Since digging is not done, we can’t take any credit for Earned Value on the activity.

Planned Cost       Planned      Scheduled Finish
Activity                            (Effort-Hours)   Duration (Days)      (Day)
1 Draw plans and materials list            6                1             Day 1
2 Destroy old deck                        12                1             Day 2
3 Truck off trash                          4               0.5            Day 3
4 Purchase materials                       4               0.5            Day 3
5 Dig four footing holes                   8                2             Day 5
Total-To-Date                           34
6 Pour concrete footings                   4                1               Day 6
7 Construct main deck                     12                3               Day 9
8 Construct railings and stairs            8                2               Day 11
9 Clean-up                                 6                1               Day 12

Only when an activity is marked “Done” do we “earn” the planned value for completed work (Column G).
At the end of Day 5, we planned to accomplish 34 hours of work. We’ve expended 36 hours, yet we’ve only earned 26
ost) for the first 5 activities.
pleted the first four activities.

Actual Cost         Status        Earned Value
(Effort-Hours)   (Done/Started)   (Effort- Hours)
6              Done               6
12              Done               12
4              Done               4
4              Done               4
10            Started              0
36                                 26

e for completed work (Column G).
expended 36 hours, yet we’ve only earned 26 hours.
Planned Cost            Actual Cost       Earned Value      Cumulative
Day (Effort-Hours)          (Effort-Hours)    (Effort- Hours)   Planned Value
1        6                       6                 6                6
2       12                      12                 12              18
3        8                       4                 4               26
4                                4                 4               26
5        8                      10                 0               34
6        4                                                         38
7                                                                  38
8                                                                  38
9       12                                                         50
10                                                                  50
11        8                                                         58
12        6                                                         64

70

60

50
Cumulative Planned
40                                                       Value
Cumulative Actual Cost
30

20                                                       Cumulative Earned Value

10

0
1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 10 11 12

Through Day 3 of the project, actual costs were according to plan.
But on Day 4, the red jumps above the blue, showing that we’ve gone over plan.
The gap between Actual Cost, Planned Value, and Earned Value clearly indicates project problems.

Earned Value ratios: the Cost Performance Index (CPI) and the Schedule Performance Index (SPI).
The CPI is the ratio of Earned Value divided by Actual Cost, and the SPI is the ratio of Earned Value divided by Planned V

Both ratios are calculated using “To Date” cumulative values.
CPI = 26/36 =              #DIV/0! hours of result for every 10 hours of actual effort expended on our proje
SPI = 26/34 =              #DIV/0! hours of result for every 10 hours of planned effort on our project.

(CPI and SPI are conservative forecasting tools – each assumes that past performance is an indicator of future results.)
Cumulative       Cumulative
Actual Cost     Earned Value
6                6
18               18
22               22
26               26
36               26

ulative Earned Value

learly indicates project problems.

hedule Performance Index (SPI).
he SPI is the ratio of Earned Value divided by Planned Value.

every 10 hours of actual effort expended on our project.
every 10 hours of planned effort on our project.

at past performance is an indicator of future results.)
To forecast the "Estimated Cost at Completion" (EAC), divide the original cost by the CPI.
CPI = 26/36 =     0.722222222

Cumulative           Cumulative          Cumulative          Cumulative
Day    Planned Value         Actual Cost        Earned Value        Projected EAC
1          6                   6                   6
2         18                   18                  18
3         26                   22                  22
4         26                   26                  26
5         34                   36                  26                               36
6         38                                                                     52.62
7         38                                                                     52.62
8         38                                                                     52.62
9         50                                                                     69.23
10         50                                                                     69.23
11         58                                                                     80.31
12         64                                                                     88.62

SPI = 26/34 =    0.764705882
The Forecasted Duration is the original duration divided by the SPI.

Planned        Forecasted
Activity                                                 Duration (Days) Duration (Days)
1 Draw plans and materials list                                 1
2 Destroy old deck                                              1
3 Truck off trash                                              0.5
4 Purchase materials                                           0.5
5 Dig four footing holes                                        2             2.62
6 Pour concrete footings                                        1             1.31
7 Construct main deck                                           3             3.92
8 Construct railings and stairs                                 2             2.62
9 Clean-up                                                      1             1.31
Total                                                          12            15.69

So after five days of work on the project, it looks like we’ve added more than three days to the schedule and 22 hours o
Is the project really that far off track?
Activity 5 is seriously over budget and not yet complete.
The hole-digging activity seems to have run into trouble – after ten hours of work (two more than planned), the work is
Activity 5 has also lowered the SPI because the project cannot take credit for its completion.
First, we need to figure out what happened.
Then we can take corrective action.
100
90
80
70
60                                                          Planned Value
50                                                          Actual Cost
40                                                          Earned Value
30
Projected EAC
20
10
0
1   2   3    4   5   6   7   8   9      10   11   12

ore than three days to the schedule and 22 hours of work to the budget.

ours of work (two more than planned), the work is not done.
redit for its completion.
Our key stakeholders discovered that the original estimates for digging were based on favorable soil conditions.
For three of the four holes, this was a valid assumption.
However, the diggers uncovered a large boulder (more than 500 lbs) on the 4th hole.

Aside from the 4th hole, the other project tasks completed as planned and raised no concerns about the estimates for work not ye
If we informally apply a “% complete” evaluation to our project, we earn 75% (3 out of 4 holes) of the hole digging activity.

Planned Cost            Actual Cost        Earned Value
Day (Effort-Hours)          (Effort-Hours)     (Effort- Hours)
1        6                       6                  6
2       12                      12                  12
3        8                       4                  4
4                                4                  4                              CPI = 32/36 =
5        8                      10                  6                              SPI = 32/34 =
34                      36                  32

If we recompute the EAC and schedule, our EAC forecast improves from 88 to 72 hours.

Cumulative              Cumulative         Cumulative          Cumulative
Day Planned Value            Actual Cost       Earned Value        Projected EAC
1       6                      6                  6
2      18                      18                 18
3      26                      22                 22
4      26                      26                 26
5      34                      36                 26                   36
6      38                                                             42.75        E25=B25/\$H\$12
7      38                                                             42.75
8      38                                                             42.75
9      50                                                             56.25
10      50                                                             56.25
11      58                                                             65.25
12      64                                                             72.00

Activity                                                              Forecasted Duration (Days)
Planned Duration (Days)
1 Draw plans and materials list                                     1
2 Destroy old deck                                                  1
3 Truck off trash                                                 0.5
4 Purchase materials                                              0.5
5 Dig four footing holes                                            2             2.125 E38=D38/\$H\$13
6 Pour concrete footings                                            1            1.0625
7 Construct main deck                                               3            3.1875
8 Construct railings and stairs                                     2             2.125
9 Clean-up                                                          1            1.0625
Total                                                             12              12.75

We also shorten our schedule estimate from 15.7 days to 12.7 days.

This information will help us decide on what corrective action to take.
on favorable soil conditions.

o concerns about the estimates for work not yet started.
t of 4 holes) of the hole digging activity.

CPI = 32/36 =           0.888889
SPI = 32/34 =           0.941176

E25=B25/\$H\$12

E38=D38/\$H\$13
The right corrective action depends heavily on the kinds of problems encountered and how the project stakeholders w
For example, a key stakeholder (a spouse in this case) may insist that product cannot be compromised (“It won’t look r
or may focus on schedule because of an upcoming social event.

Possible Corrective Action for the Deck Project

Stakeholder Priority         General Approach

Maintain project schedule    Sacrifice product

Sacrifice cost

Maintain product features
and performance              Sacrifice schedule

Sacrifice cost

Maintain project cost        Sacrifice product

Sacrifice schedule

After some discussion, the stakeholders decided that the key constraint is the product’s features and performance.
They chose to remove the bolder and place the footing where originally planned, satisfying all building codes.
However, since this choice adds work to the project, the plan must be adjusted.
ds heavily on the kinds of problems encountered and how the project stakeholders weigh the various solutions.
spouse in this case) may insist that product cannot be compromised (“It won’t look right”),
e of an upcoming social event.

Possible Specific Approaches
Reduce the scope of some other part of the project. For example,
use simpler hand railings
Stop digging and hope the building inspector doesn’t notice the
depth of the hole with the rock
Work overtime to finish the task before the start of Day 6
Have a friend help (more pizza and beer)
Rent a back-hoe

Get permission from the stakeholders
Run late, then beg forgiveness from the stakeholders
Work overtime to finish the task before the start of Day 6
Have a friend help (more pizza and beer)
Rent a back-hoe
Reduce the scope of some other part of the project. For example,
use simpler hand rails
Stop digging and hope the building inspector doesn’t notice the
depth of the hole with the big rock
Since we have already gone over budget, changing schedule will have
little impact on project cost

olders decided that the key constraint is the product’s features and performance.
and place the footing where originally planned, satisfying all building codes.
work to the project, the plan must be adjusted.
he various solutions.
Removing the rock involved manually excavating around it, dragging it out of the hole, and
restoring the earth displaced by the rock. In total, an additional eight hours of effort and one day
of schedule need to be added.

The table below shows the updated plan reflecting the added task “Remove boulder.”
No other project activities have been changed.
Also, the activity “Dig footings” was marked “Done” and the value of that work counted as “Earned”.

Planned Cost          Planned
Activity                                 (Effort-Hours)      Duration (Days)
1 Draw plans and materials list                 6                   1
2 Destroy old deck                             12                   1
3 Truck off trash                               4                  0.5
4 Purchase materials                            4                  0.5
5 Dig four footing holes                        8                   2
6 Remove boulder                                8                   1
7 (6) Pour concrete footings                    4                   1
8 (7) Construct main deck                      12                   3
9 (8) Construct railings and stairs             8                   2
10 (9) Clean-up                                 6                   1
Total                                          72                  13

The total project effort has been increased to 72 hours (from 64) and the duration has increased from 12 to 13 days.

Cumulative           Cumulative          Cumulative
Re-Baselined         Actual Cost
Day Planned Value           Planned Value        (Effort-Hours)
1       6                                 6                    6
2      18                                18                   18
3      26                                26                   26
4      26                                26                   26
5      34                                34                   36
6      38                                42
7      38                                46
8      38                                46
9      50                                46
10      50                                58
11      58                                58
12      64                                66
13                                        72

Earned Value ratios: the Cost Performance Index (CPI) and the Schedule Performance Index (SPI).
The CPI is the ratio of Earned Value divided by Actual Cost, and the SPI is the ratio of Earned Value divided by Planned V
At the end of Day 5, we have a new CPI = 34/36 =                  0.944444444 ; and the new SPI = 34/34 =

To = original cost/CPI. forecast at "Estimated (EAC), Completion"Cost cost by the origina
To                  To forecast at "Estimated (EAC), Completion" (EA
The "Estimated Cost at Completion" (EAC)forecast the "Estimated CosttheCompletion"Costthedivide the originalat divide the CPI.
The new EAC = 72/0.94 = 77 hours.
The Forecasted Duration is the original duration divided by the SPI, or 13/1.0 = 13.

The project is still forecasted to exceed the new budget (because CPI is less than 1.0),
due to two hours of rock removal on Day 5 (two hours against the eight hours added during the re-baseline).
We expect that after Day 6, CPI productivity will climb back to 1.0.
Re-baselining is only legitimate when it is performed in response to a stakeholder- approved scope change.
counted as “Earned”.

Scheduled Finish       Actual Cost             Status               Earned Value
(Day)            (Effort-Hours)       (Done/Started)          (Effort- Hours)
Day 1                   6                  Done                      6
Day 2                  12                  Done                      12
Day 3                   4                  Done                      4
Day 3                   4                  Done                      4
Day 5                  10                  Done                      8
Day 6                                    Started
Day 7 (6)
Day 10 (9)
Day 12 (11)
Day 13 (12)
36                                             34

ion has increased from 12 to 13 days.

Cumulative
Earned Value
(Effort- Hours)
6   80
18   70
26
60
26
50
34
40
30
20
10
0
1    2        3       4     5     6      7        8   9    10    11   12   13

Planned Value          Re-Baselined Planned Value

Performance Index (SPI).
s the ratio of Earned Value divided by Planned Value.
; and the new SPI = 34/34 =                               1

To forecast at "Estimated (EAC), Completion"CosttheCompletion"Costtheforecast the Cost cost by the CPI.
To forecast at "Estimated (EAC), "Estimated (EAC), Completion""Estimated Cost origin
To forecast cost byTo forecast at "Estimated (EAC), Completion" (EA
the original cost by the original
To forecast the "Estimated CosttheCompletion"Costthedivide the originalat divide the CPI. To divide the CPI. at divide theat Com

der- approved scope change.
13

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