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									                                                                                                    Global Equity Research

UBS Investment Research
                                                                                                       Equity Strategy
US Equity Strategy
                                                                                                       Market Comment

2011 vs. 2010
.                                                                                                                                    3 January 2011

With the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 up 20% and 30% respectively, over the
past four months, it’s no wonder that investor sentiment has once again turned                                               Jonathan Golub, CFA
decidedly optimistic. This is clearly visible in the AAII Investor Sentiment                                                                   Strategist
Survey, which shows that over 50% of retail investors are currently bullish.                                                    jonathan.golub@ubs.com
                                                                                                                                        +1-212-713 8673
                                AAII Investor Sentiment: Bullish                                                                    Chip Miller, CFA
    55         + 2 Std Dev                                                               50.2                                           +1-203-719 3720
                                                                                                                             Manish Bangard, CFA
                                                                                                                                        +1 212 713 3036
    35                                                                                                               Thomas M. Doerflinger, Ph.D.
    25                                                                                                                                  +1-212-713 2540
              - 2 Std Dev
                                                                                                                                Natalie Garner, CFA
         06             07              08                09                10                                                           +1-212-713 4915

Source: AAII, Haver and UBS                                            Note: 4 week moving average

While contrarians might see this as a harbinger for a market pullback, we
remain constructive and believe that strong incoming data rather than animal
spirits are driving stocks higher.

Two Overriding Themes
As we ring in the new year, we thought it would be useful to explore how the
current investment climate is both very similar and significantly different from
the backdrop twelve months ago.

In comparing this year to last, two overriding themes jump out at us — the
renormalization of business conditions, and the less threatening nature of
macro risks.

Importantly, we believe that these themes will continue to lead equity markets
higher in 2011.

This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC
UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making
their investment decision.
US Equity Strategy 3 January 2011

#1 Renormalization of Business Conditions
Perhaps more than anything else, we attribute the recent run in stocks to a
renormalization of economic and market conditions, which should provide
                                                                                         The tone of the markets will be different
additional upside for stocks in 2011.
                                                                                         in 2011 as business and economic
Earnings Expectations Back Toward Trend                                                  cycles mature

Following recessions, earnings growth soars on the back of easy comps and an
improving economy. Growth rates later tumble as prior results become more

The current cycle is no different. Following a 36% increase in EPS in 2010,
analysts project growth of 13-14% in each of the next two years. In our view,
this shouldn’t be read as a significant deceleration, as much as the return to more
normalized growth rates.

                         S&P 500 Actual and Bottom-Up Consensus EPS
        Operating Earnings                                 EPS           Y/Y Growth      Earnings growth to decelerate toward
         2009 Actual                                      $62.25                         trend levels as comps become more
         2010 Estimate                                     84.60          35.9%          difficult
         2011 Estimate                                     95.97           13.4
         2012 Estimate                                    109.42           14.0
Source: Thomson Financial, FactSet and UBS

In the midst of earnings recoveries, analysts also tend to underestimate margin
improvement, leading to large upside quarterly results. However, as a cycle
matures, the pattern of positive surprises typically wanes.

                            S&P 500 (ex-Financials) Earnings Surprises

                                                                                         EPS surprises to remain positive, but
                                             9.9                                         wane over the next several quarters

      2Q09             3Q09              4Q09           1Q10       2Q10           3Q10

Source: Compustat, Thomson Financial, FactSet and UBS

The current recovery is following this trend. However, as a result of the severity
of the recent downturn, the size of the beats and duration of the cycle is greater
than normal. Looking ahead, we expect stocks to continue to surprise for
several more quarters.

Releveraging Should Provide Additional Tailwinds
During expansions, companies invest for growth. During downturns, they
manage for cash. While it is quite logical that cash balances rose in 2009, the
improvement in balance sheets throughout 2010 has been a surprise to many.

                                                                                                                            UBS 2
US Equity Strategy 3 January 2011

                                         Cash as a % of Assets
 12%                                                                                            11.1%
                                                                             10.7%               2010    To the surprise of many investors,
 11%                                                                          2009                       balance sheets continued to strengthen
                                                                                                         in 2010
 10%                                          S&P 500 (ex-Finl) ►
   9%                                                                                            2010

   7%                                                                  ◄ S&P 500
                                                                       (ex-Finl & Tech)
         06                   07                  08                   09                  10

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Compustat, Thomson Financial, FactSet and UBS

The extent of the deleveraging cycle speaks to the high level of corporate
conservatism and CEO reluctance to resume spending following the downturn.

                                     Net Debt and Interest Coverage
 39%                                                                                     8.6x
                                                         deleveraging                             8.5x
 35%            Net Debt                                                                         7.5x

 33%                                          Interest
                                              Coverage ►
 31%                                                                       5.7x

 29%                                                                                              5.5x
          06                 07                08                09                 10

Source: Compustat, FactSet and UBS

Different than a year ago, there are a number of signs that a releveraging cycle is
currently underway.

The shift is evident when comparing the use of cash to buyback stock
(releveraging) as opposed to pay down debt (deleveraging). While company
management preferred to reduce debt in 2009, in each of the past 3 quarters,
more cash was deployed to buyback stock. In aggregate, S&P 500 companies
actually issued debt to repurchase shares in 3Q10.

                                                                                                                                         UBS 3
US Equity Strategy 3 January 2011

                            Stock Buyback and Debt Repayments ($Bn)
                    Debt Repayments                                                          61
               Buybacks                                                                                       Signs of releveraging emerged in 2010
                             38               34                                                              as buybacks outpaced debt repayments
                                                         33                       31
                      22                25
           17                                                  14



       2Q09              3Q09            4Q09                1Q10           2Q10                 3Q10

Source: MergerStat, FactSet and UBS

There has also been a significant increase in M&A activity over the past year, as
many larger companies looked to buy growth as the economy gained greater

                                      Number of Deals Above $1Bn

                                            255                                       268
                                                                                244                           M&A increase by 60% in 2010, another
                                                                                                              sign of the releveraging cycle
                                                                    157                                 164
                         151                      143
                                                        96 98                                     101
               87 90

          94        96          98           00         02          04          06          08          10

Source: MergerStat, FactSet and UBS

We expect companies to continue to increase dividends, buybacks, and M&A
activity throughout 2011. This gradual releveraging process should help fuel
EPS growth, support valuations, and add to positive sentiment.

Valuations Could Provide Substantial Upside
With earnings up 36% in 2010, a 15% increase in stock prices has been
insufficient to keep valuations from falling. At 13x versus 14x a year ago, P/Es
look extremely cheap on almost any metric.

                                                                                                                                              UBS 4
US Equity Strategy 3 January 2011

                                             P/E vs. Baa Yields
                                                                                                                     Valuations have NOT renormalized over
                                                        Baa Yield ►
   9                                                                                                                 the past year


                                      Earnings Yield ►                                    6.7            7.6
   6                                                                                       6.5

       04            05            06             07            08             09             10

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Financial, FactSet and UBS

As discussed in our 2011 outlook piece, Good with a Chance of Great, we
believe that valuations will be the biggest swing factor for stocks over the next
12 months. However, much of this will be determined by investors’ perception
of macro risks, which, as discussed below, appear less daunting than a year ago.

#2 Macro Risks Less Threatening
While still a concern, we believe that macro risks will play a smaller role in
2011 than they did in 2010. Below, we highlight several of these potential

Credit Shocks to Continue
More than anything else, the market’s gyrations over the past 12 months have
been punctuated by episodic spikes in credit-driven volatility.

                                        S&P 500 vs. CDS Spreads
 1250                                                                                                                Macro events, most notably European
                                                       S&P 500 Index ►                                               sovereign concerns, drove market
 1200                                                                                                     225
                                                                                                                     behavior in 2010

 1150                                                                                                     325

                                                                                                          425        Stocks prices have become less
 1050                                                   Europe CDS ►                                                 sensitive to these issues more recently
                                                Spreads Basket (Inverted)                                 525
    12-Apr           27-May           11-Jul         25-Aug           9-Oct          23-Nov

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Bloomberg and UBS
Note: European CDS basket is the simple average of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Spain and Greece CDS. Both series are
5-day moving averages

The exhibit above highlights that while stock returns have been dominated by
sovereign debt issues throughout much of 2010, over the past 4 months, equity
markets have been largely indifferent.

                                                                                                                                                       UBS 5
US Equity Strategy 3 January 2011

One big difference between now and a year ago are the lessons learned and
actions taken by European authorities to address sovereign credit issues, most
notably the establishment of loan facilities. While we expect credit concerns to
spike episodically, we also believe that future setbacks will be less severe, most
likely representing buying opportunities.

The focus of the comments above relate to European sovereign debt and banking                                        We expect periodic spikes in credit-
concerns. That said, we wouldn’t be surprised if other credit market issues —                                        driven volatility to continue
perhaps emanating from the municipal or mortgage markets — play some role
over the next several years.

Similar to sovereign concerns, what matters most is whether these events disrupt
the underlying economic and market recovery. Once again, we believe that
government authorities will remain proactive in dealing with such issues.

A More Balanced Tone from DC
As we entered 2010, many would have described the tone from Washington
toward upper-end earners, business, and shareholders as unfriendly. Following
a ‘shellacking’ in the mid-term elections, we now find the President on a charm
offensive with the goal of compromise and reconciliation.

                                   President Obama’s Approval Rating
                                                                                                                     The tone in DC has become more
                                                                                                                     friendly toward upper-income earners,
                                                                                                                     business and shareholders since the
                                                                                                                     mid-term elections


  01-09              05-09             09-09             01-10            05-10             09-10

Source: Gallup. Please see http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx for further details

A year ago, the Financial and Health Care sectors of the economy faced the
uncertainty of sweeping reform. We believe that the underperformance of both
areas can be at least partially attributed to the uncertainly surrounding regulatory

                                                                                                                                                       UBS 6
US Equity Strategy 3 January 2011

                                             2010 Performance

   28        27                                                                                   Regulatory uncertainty has been a
                                                                                                  headwind for the Financial and Health
                                20                                                                Care sectors in 2010
                                                   15     14
                                                                                  5               The policy agenda should not be as
                                                                                            3     disruptive in 2011

  Con       Indls      Matrs Energy Telco          S&P    Con     Finl    Tech   Utils     Hlth
  Disc                                             500    Spls                             Care

Source: Standard & Poor’s, FactSet and UBS

Different from the environment facing investors last January, similar regulatory
challenges don’t appear to on the table at this time. If anything, we believe that
a more balanced power dynamic will make the implementation of many of the
laws passed last year more favorable for investors.

While it’s impossible to calculate the full extent of a more cooperative DC, we                   The tax deal should add 3-4% additional
have already seen some benefits. We estimate an increase of 3-4% in S&P 500                       EPS growth in 2011
earnings due to the recent tax deal alone. Putting this into context, over the
long-run EPS tends to grow by roughly 8%. (For additional details, please see
our December 22 note, k-g.)

Jobs and Housing
Unfortunately, while many parts of the economy have begun to renormalize, the
same cannot be said for the housing and labor markets. As illustrated below, the
unemployment rate continues to hover in the high-9s, with only modest
improvement expected over the course of the year.

                                             Unemployment Rate

                                                                                                  While conditions are improving,
  9                                                                                        9.8%   unemployment should remain high
                                                                                           2010   throughout 2011




                  07                         08                  09                   10
Source: US Department of Labor, FactSet and UBS

Similarly, while the housing market appears to have ‘bottomed’ in 2010,
investors don’t expect a meaningful increase in home prices in the coming year.

                                                                                                                                   UBS 7
US Equity Strategy 3 January 2011

                                      Case-Shiller Home Price Index

 200                                                                                               Home prices are expected to remain
                                                                                                   under pressure throughout 2011



 160                                                                                       145.3
                                                                             2009          2010

                   07                          08                       09            10
Source: Standard & Poor’s, FactSet and UBS

Over the past couple of years, investors have debated whether inflation or
deflation was the greater threat. At a recent meeting, a PM quipped that the only
thing he could be sure of was that there would be ’flation.

More recently, with commodity prices on the rise, and a dovish monetary policy,
inflation risks have received greater attention.

                                                 Copper & Corn
 4.5 $/lb                                                                             $/bu
                                                2009            2010                         7.0
                                                                                                   Commodity prices are up significantly
 4.0                           Copper          $3.3/lb        $4.3/lb
                               Corn        $4.4/bu            $6.1/bu                              from recessionary lows

 3.0                                                                                         5.0

 2.5                                                                                         4.0

                                                                                 ▲ Corn      3.0
 1.5                                             ◄ Copper
                    08                                   09                      10
Source: Wall Street Journal, FactSet and UBS

While the cost of commodities such as corn and copper have been exploding,
energy price increases appear to be more modest.

                                                                                                                                    UBS 8
US Equity Strategy 3 January 2011

                                             WTI ($/barrel)

                                                                                              Energy prices remain more contained
                                                                                              than other natural resources
 100                                                          79.4                     2010



                     08                                09                    10
Source: US Department of Energy, FactSet and UBS

The well-worn joke regarding ‘core’ CPI is that there's no inflation unless you
eat or drive. However, as the CPI chart below highlights, with excess capacity
across the economy, inflation isn’t a problem regardless of whether you include
more volatile food and energy prices.

                                                  CPI (YoY)
                                                                                              Overall, inflation remains well
                                                      ◄ Headline                              contained
 4%                                                                   2.8%
 2%                                 ▲ Core                                             2010
 1%                                                                   1.8%
 -1%                                                                                   2010
                   07                      08                    09               10
Source: US Department of Labor, FactSet and UBS

To the extent that inflation is a headwind, it will most likely originate on foreign
soil. More specifically, actions taken in China, Brazil and elsewhere to bring
inflation under control could pose a risk to global growth prospects. While this
has not been a major challenge to date, it is an area we are watching closely.

Importantly, with employment and housing still on the skids and inflation in
check, conditions remain favorable for continued Fed accommodation — hardly
a headwind.

Interest Rates
The recent backup in yields has also sparked consternation. In our view, the
impact will most likely be modest. Even with the recent increase, yields remain
lower across the curve than they were one year ago.

                                                                                                                                UBS 9
US Equity Strategy 3 January 2011

                                                  Yield Curve
                                                                   12/31/09 ▼                  Rates are lower across the curve than
  4                                                                                            one year ago

  3                                                             ▲ 12/31/10

                                                                 ▲ 10/7/10


                           3-Mo               2-Yr               5-Yr         10-Yr    30-Yr
  12/31/2010               0.12               0.59               2.01         3.29     4.33
  10/07/2010               0.11               0.35               1.13         2.38     3.71
  12/31/2009               0.05               1.14               2.68         3.84     4.64
Source: Bloomberg and UBS

Most importantly, the backup in rates over the past several months has been the
result of an economy shifting from double-dip fears toward a more robust trend.
With consensus expectations for nominal GDP moving above 4%, a yield on the
10-year of 3.3% hardly seems like a hurdle.

Risk On/Risk Off
Two challenges that investors faced in 2010 were high correlations and near
constant reversals in market leadership. In reality, both of these issues were the
result of the macro environment.

Over the summer, with correlations near crisis levels, many investors postulated
that the use of ETFs was dramatically altering the opportunity to add alpha. As
the market has raced ahead more recently, so has the potential to deliver excess

                                             Pairwise Correlation
                                                                                               Macro concerns drove correlations to
                                                                                               crisis levels in 2010. Generating alpha
                                                                                               should be easier in the year ahead



        06                  07                   08                  09           10

Source: Standard & Poor’s, FactSet and UBS
Note: Data calculated for S&P 500 Industry Groups on a 30-day rolling basis

                                                                                                                                UBS 10
US Equity Strategy 3 January 2011

Abrupt shifts in leadership between the most speculative (high volatility) and
defensive (high ROE) investments have also led to frustration. This has been
especially problematic as earnings fundamentals (earnings revisions) and
valuations (forward PE) — the focus of most traditional portfolio managers —
have not been rewarded.

                                          UBS Return Drivers
  Sep - Dec 10

                                                                   0.3                   -3.1      The Risk on/Risk off trade made
                                                                                                   generating consistent returns difficult
                                                                                                   in 2010. This should be less of a
                                                                                                   headwind in the year ahead
                  Price Vol            Fwd PE                  Earn Rev                  ROE

  Aug 10

                                         -0.1                    -0.4                    -1.3

                    ROE                Fwd PE                 Earn Rev                 Price Vol

                                                                                                   Fundamentals should become more
                    1.2                                                                            important in 2011
  Jul 10

                                         -0.3                     -0.3                    -0.5

                  Price Vol            Fwd PE                  Earn Rev                  ROE

   May - Jun 10


                    ROE               Earn Rev                  Fwd PE                 Price Vol

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Compustat, Thomson Financial, Worldscope, FactSet and UBS

As stated earlier, we anticipate periodic spikes in macro risks; however, the
extremes of the past 12 months are unlikely to reassert. As such, we believe that
fundamentals should once drive performance.

Separately, we expect higher P/E stocks — many of which delivered strong
earnings but more modest price increases — to lead in the year ahead. This
thesis was first presented in our October 11 note, Overpay.

                                                                                                                                     UBS 11
US Equity Strategy 3 January 2011

As we highlighted at the beginning of the piece, optimism is running high, and
for good reason.

While stocks are up nearly 20% over the past 4 months, multiples remain at
extremely low levels. Incoming economic data continues to surprise on the
upside, and will likely lead to several more quarters of positive surprises. The
Fed remains accommodative with inflationary pressures still quite subdued, and
Washington is far less likely to pose major hurdles.

There are always headwinds, but as we look at all that’s similar and different
from a year ago, we find it hard not to be optimistic.

Good luck in the year ahead.

    Statement of Risk


    Analyst Certification

Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research
report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer
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research report.

                                                                                       UBS 12
US Equity Strategy 3 January 2011

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UBS Investment Research: Global Equity Rating Allocations
                                                                                                  1                                2
 UBS 12-Month Rating                Rating Category                                     Coverage                      IB Services
 Buy                                Buy                                                        49%                            40%
 Neutral                            Hold/Neutral                                               42%                            35%
 Sell                               Sell                                                        8%                            21%
                                                                                                  3                              4
 UBS Short-Term Rating              Rating Category                                     Coverage                      IB Services
 Buy                                Buy                                               less than 1%                            14%
 Sell                               Sell                                              less than 1%                             0%
1:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the 12-month rating category.
2:Percentage of companies within the 12-month rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within
the past 12 months.
3:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the Short-Term rating category.
4:Percentage of companies within the Short-Term rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided
within the past 12 months.

Source: UBS. Rating allocations are as of 31 December 2010.
UBS Investment Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions
 UBS 12-Month Rating                Definition
 Buy                                FSR is > 6% above the MRA.
 Neutral                            FSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA.
 Sell                               FSR is > 6% below the MRA.
 UBS Short-Term Rating              Definition
                                    Buy: Stock price expected to rise within three months from the time the rating was assigned
                                    because of a specific catalyst or event.
                                    Sell: Stock price expected to fall within three months from the time the rating was assigned
                                    because of a specific catalyst or event.

                                                                                                                             UBS 13
US Equity Strategy 3 January 2011

 Forecast Stock Return (FSR) is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12
 Market Return Assumption (MRA) is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for, and not a
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UBS Securities LLC: Jonathan Golub, CFA; Chip Miller, CFA; Manish Bangard, CFA; Thomas M. Doerflinger, Ph.D.; Natalie
Garner, CFA.

Unless otherwise indicated, please refer to the Valuation and Risk sections within the body of this report.

                                                                                                                             UBS 14
US Equity Strategy 3 January 2011

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