Index

Document Sample
Index Powered By Docstoc
					Index
ABC News, 231
Absolute change, 24-25
Accuracy factor, in election polls, 242-244 , 262 n.11
Achievement tests, 180
Acquiescence bias, in surveys, 126
Age, as variable, 130-31, 144-45, 146- 48, 151, 154-56
AS&R Master File, 200; weighting for, 227
Aggregate data, 199-201 , 204-5
AIDS, knowledge of, testing for, 168-70
Aiken, Howard, 79-80
Almeida, Donald B., 193
Alpha test, 161-62
American Soldier, The (Stouffer), 165-66
Apportionment, census data for, 208-9
Archival records, analysis of, 182-83
Aregood, Rich, 191
ASCII, 96, 100
AS&R Master File (FBI), 200
Atanasoff, John Vincent, 80
Atanasoff-Berry Computer, 80
Atlanta Constitution, 19 , 212-13
Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC), 33
Average. See Mean
Babbage, Charles, 79-80
Balanced questions, in surveys, 124-25
Ballot, secret: in election polls, 225, 234; as voting method, 245-46
Bandwagon effect, of media polls, 251
Barlett, Donald L., 193, 196
Base: in data-analysis percentages, 21- 24, 26, 140; use in CPI calculations, 30
Baseline, use in measuring, 40-41
BASIC, 82, 108-9, 111
Batch computing, 84
Batten, James K., 6
Baudot code, 97
Berkeley arrestees, study of, 156-58, 166-67
Berry, Clifford E., 80
Bias, in sampling, 114-15, 126, 217-18
Bibliographic databases, 188
Binary system, 41, 79-81, 82, 96
Bishop, George, 122
Black, Gordon, 230, 245, 252
Blacks, surveys of, 115, 143
Bok, Derek, 1
Bok, Sissela, 171
Boolean logic, 188-90
Boorstin, Daniel, 262 n.23
Brack, Andrew, 37-38
Breslin, Jimmy, 4
Bulletin boards, computer, 187, 192
Bumper sticker experiment, 175, 178-79
Butterfield, Herbert, 12
Calculators, use for, 111
Callbacks, telephone, 134-35, 216-17, 230
Campbell, Donald T., 171-72, 179, 182-83
Campbell's demons, 180-82, 183
Carolina Poll (1988), 223-24, 226, 227, 228
Categorical (Nominal) measurement, 62
CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing), 134
Causation, 40, ; 53-55, 164, 165; assumption in Miami Herald survey, 149-50, 158;
tested in field experiments, 170-75
CBS News, 144-45; election polls, 220- 21, 229, 230-31
CD-ROM, 187, 206, 209
CENDATA (Census Bureau), 206
Census, 33, 63-69, 199-200, 222, 227; data compared with poll samples, 214- 15;
geographic structure, 206-8; use in sampling techniques, 110-14
Census Bureau, 77, 239 ; access to data, 197, 203-13; on-line information service, 206
Central tendency, 51-57, 83
Chi-square, 57-60, 67-69, 91, 147
Chronbach's Alpha test, 161-62
Circulation, newspaper, 7, 31-32, 37-38, 44, 49-50; SPSS analysis, 86-91
Cluster methods, 109-10, 113-14
COBOL, 82
Cohn, Victor, 56
Coincidence, as alternate inference, 56- 61
Coin flipping, probability, 69-70
Comparisons, use in reporting survey results, 143-45
Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI), 134
Computers, 3, 7, 19, 84-100, 167, 186-87; communication among, 96-97, 100, 186;
history of, 77-84; index construction, 160-62; languages, 82- 83; mainframe, 77, 83, 84-
85, 97-99; off-line retrieval, 193-94; percentage analysis, 142; personal (PCs), 83, 84, 99-
100, 111, 205-6; research of public databases, 192, 238-40; SAS and SPSS programs, 93-
94; telephone interviewing, 134. See also Databases
Conant, James Bryant, 1
Confidence level, in sampling, 72-75
Consensus formation, 246-47, 253
Consumer Price Index (CPI), 27-30, 34, 36
Content analysis, 182, 190-91
Contingency tables, 163
Continuous (Interval) measurement, 62-63
Control groups, in field experiments, 172-73, 175-80, 181, 184-85
Control (Test factor), 151
Converse, Philip, 121
Cook, Thomas D., 171-72, 181
Corless, Inge, 168-70
Correlation coefficients, 33, 65-67, 161, 163
Correlation matrix, 160-64
Couch, Arthur S., 257 n.4
Covariance, 40, 53, 65
Cranberg, Lawrence, 5-7
Crespi, Irving, 216, 220, 223, 226, 228
Cross-tabulation, 54-56, 196, 204, 205; from survey question responses, 124- 25; three-
way, 145-48
Curve fitting, of trend data, 33
Dade County, Fla., school insurance story as theoretical model, 15-17
Dallas Morning News, 19
Data: categorical, 20-21, 67-69; collection, 5, 8, 132-38; continuous, 20-38; convoluted,
34; non-attitudes as, 121-22; storage, 8, 79, 97-100
Data analysis, 5, 8, 19, 20-38; of surveys, 138, 139-67; use of database system, 85-94
Databases, 186-213; complex structures, 196-97; content analysis, 190-91; dirty-data
problem, 201-3; programs, 85-96; public records in, 238-40
Data processing, 8-10
Data-Text, 91, 193, 257 n.4
dBase (computer program), 195-96
DCB (data control block), 98-99
Decimal point, importance of, 22-23
Dedman, Bill, 212-13
Delli Carpini, Michael X., 249
Democracy: effect of election polls on, 245-46, 253; pluralism and truth, 14
Democratic Party, 216, 223, 229
Demographics: of poll's samples, 214-15, 221; survey questions on, 130-32
Dennis, Everette, E., x
Deprivation survey, relative, 165-66
Detrending, 28-38
Detroit Free Press: early-projection voting system, 232-35; study on riot participants, 18,
53-56, 114, 129, 162-63
Deviation, 59, 71. See also Standard deviation
Dillman, Don A., 133, 136
Dispositions, relation to properties and behavior, 152-56
Distribution, statistical, 43, 47-51, 73
Don't knows. See Non-attitudes
Dow Jones Industrial Average, 23-26
Draft, military (Vietnam era), attempt at randomization, 184-85, 212
EBCDIC (Extended Binary-Coded Decimal Interchange Code), 96
Economics, first law of, 105-6
Education, 183, 211, 212; compared with income, 159, 163; as variable, 131, 144-45,
150, 151-52, 158
Elections, 212, 214; effect of polls on outcome, 244-53; models for election- night
turnouts, 230-35. See also Voting
Election surveys, 142, 214-35, 241-53; complaints against, 242-46; election- night
projections, 230-35; 1948, 229; 1968, 244-45; 1976, 145-46; 1988, 242, 243, 262 n.11.
See also Exit polls
ENIAC, 80-81
EOF (end of file) marker, 98
EPA (Enviromental Protection Agency), database on toxic waste, 202-3
Equal probability rule, in sampling, 102, 103-4, 109, 113
Error margin, 72, 219
Evaluation research, 183-85
Exit polls, 125, 230, 234-35, 237, 249, 250
Face-to-face interviews. See Personal interviews
Factor analysis, 162-63,
FBI Uniform Crime Reports, 200
Federal Information Processing Standard code, 197
Felgenhauer, Neil, x
Field experiments, 168-85; designing, 172-75; training for, 170-71
Fields, in SPSS, 87 ; Files, 94-96, 196-97; nonrectangular, 94-96, 197-98; rectangular,
94, 196, 198; SAS management of, 92-93
Files, hierarchical (nested), 94-96, 198-99, 200; census files as, 206-8; EPA databases as,
200
First Amendment, 14 , 235
Fisher, Carl, 57-60
FORTRAN, 82, 83, 91
Framework (software), 213
Frederickson, Ted, ix-x
Frequencies, 88-89, 118-19, 195
Gallop, George, 116, 218, 240, 242
Gallop Poll, 123, 242, 243, 262 n.11; pre-election polls, 219-24, 225-26, 230, 252
Gannett Center for Media Studies, 193
Gender gap, in voting behavior, 216
General linear model (GLM), 37-38, 65
General Social Survey, 142-43
Germond, Jack, 243
Gollin, Albert E., 117, 244
Government Printing Office, 191
Greene, Juanita, 115, 155, 212
Harris Survey, 123, 230, 242, 243, 262 n.11
Harvard University, 79-80
Hawthorne effect, 175-77, 179, 183
Hierarchical files. See Files, hierarchical
Hierarchy, geographical, use in census data, 207-8
Hispanic population, census data on, 209-10
Histogram, 44-49
Historical Statistics of the United States, 30
Hollerith, Herman, 77, 79
Holmes, Oliver Wendell,” 14
Honeywell, Inc., 80
Hopper, Grace Murray, 80, 81-82
Household sampling, 114-15, 216; personal interviews, 109-10; telephone surveys, 103-
4, 106-7, 226-27
Housing situation, relationship to disposition toward violence, 153-56
Hypothesis, 11, 15-17 , 56; testing, 17-19 , 53, 165, 170-75
IBM, 78-79, 81, 83; mainframe computers, 96-99; 7090, 81, 91, 193; 360, 194
Income, 52-53, 131, 158, 211; compared with education, 159, 163
Index construction, 28, 124, 125, 159-67
Index numbers, use in statistical analysis, 34, 36-37
Inflation: adjusting for, 27-30; effect on Dow Jones Average, 25
Instrumentation, and experimental validity, 181
Intelligence, 39; use of histogram to plot, 44-45
Interest groups, 122, 240-41
Interpretation, after-the-fact, 165-67
Interval (Continuous) measurement, 62-63
Intuitive sense, use in statistics, 40
Jackson, John E., 249
Jacquard loom, use of punched cards, 79
Jaspin, Elliot, 192-93, 194-95, 237
Job Control Language (JCL), 83, 97, 98
John Henry effect, 181
Johnson, Maria Miro, 237
Johnson, Michael L., x
Journalism programs/schools,> 1-2 5
Journalists, 1-2 ; assumptions in survey questioning, 122-23; income comparisons, 28-30
Kennedy, George, 115
King, Martin Luther, 18-19 , 179-80
Kish, Leslie, 113
Kiska, Tom, 233-34
Knopes, Carol, 202
Kotzbauer, Bob, 76-77, 78
Labor Statistics Bureau, 27-28, 30, 36
Lawrence, David, 10
Leaners, in polls, 223, 225-26, 230, 252
Lewis, I. A. (Bud), 4
Lippmann, Walter, 9
Literary Digest, 217-18, 242
Local area network (LAN), 97
Logic circuits (in computers), 80-81
Luedtke, Kurt, 233
McIntosh, Shawn, 201
McReynolds, Louise, 194
McReynolds, Louise, 194
Maidenberg, Mike, 116, 232-34
Maidenburg, Ben, 76
Mail and Telephone Surveys: The Total Design Method (Dillman), 133, 136
Mail surveys, 116-17, 132, 136-38
Mani pulation, in field experiments, 174-75
Marginals, 57, 58, 118-19, 139-44, 146- 48
“Market Basket,” 27-28
Mark I, 79-80, 81-82
Mean(s) (Average[s]), 34, 83, 88, 89, 257 n.3; comparison of, 60, 196; as measure of
central tendency, 41, 51- 53; regression towards the, 180-81; use in measuring variance,
42-45
Median(s), 34, 51-53
Memory (computer term), 80, 84
Menu, computer, 84, 93
Miami Herald: pre-riot poll, 19 , 146-55, 158, 179-80; study on real estate values, 212
Michigan Survey Research Center, 143
Middle-category problem, 123-24
Milgram, Stanley, 117
Militancy, as variable: study of, 147- 53, 158, 159, 163
Mill, John Stuart, 171
Milwaukee Journal, 239
Minority status, as a dichotomous variable, 41
Mixed-mode surveys, 137-38
Mode, as measure of central tendency, 51-53
Models, 9-11 , 33, 37-38, 226; reality testing, 12-19
Modems, 97, 100, 186-87, 192
Moore, Tom, 85
Morin, Rich, 4 , 194
Morris, Dwight, 213
Mortality (Selective retention), of subjects in experiments, 181, 183-84
Muller, J. H., 79
Name recognition, in polls, 244-45
National Opinion Research Center, 128-29
NBC News, 249-50
Neft, David, 231
Negative correlation, 65
Nested files. See Files, hierarchical
Newspaper Advertising Bureau, 130
Newspapers: credibility studies, 10-11 ; election-night projections, 230, 232-34; market
research, 36 . See also Circulation, newspaper; newspapers by name
New York Times, 235, 252
Nexis News Plus, 190
Nie, Norman, 91
Nieman program (Harvard), 2
No answers (in surveys), 139-42. See also Refusals
Nominal (Categorical) measurement, 62
Non-attitudes (in surveys), 121, 139-42, 149
Nonreactive (Oddball) measurements, in field experiments, 182-83
Nonvoters: in election poll samples, 218, 219-23, 229; undecided as, 226
Norman, Jim, 4
Norusis, Marija, 93
Numbers, comparison of, 20-21
Oddball (Nonreactive) measurements, in field experiments, 182-83
Off-line retrieval, of database records, 187-88, 190, 192-96, 204
One-night polls, dangers of, 229-30
On-line retrieval, of database records, 187, 188-90, 191-92
Open-ended questions, in survey research, 120-21
Openness, in reality testing, 13, 17
Operationalization, in reality testing, 13, 16 18
Order effect, in surveys, 126-27; in election polls, 223-24
OS/2 (computer operating system), 99
Oversampling, 102
Panagakis, Nick, 226
Paradox (computer program), 137, 195
Parsimony, in reality testing, 13-14
Partial correlation coefficient, 163
Parties Excluded from Federal Procurement (database), 192
Passivity, journalistic, 3-4, 12
Paul, Nora M., 186
Payne, Stanley, 126
PC-File (computer program), 137, 195
PCs. See Computers: personal
Percentages, 21-27, 54-56, 94, 147; analysis of, 140-42
Perceptual structures, as theoretical models for data, 9-10
Perry, Paul, 220, 225-26
Personal interviews, 127-29, 132-33, 242; election polls, 218, 222, 225
Pettigrew, Thomas, 179
Phillips, Bill, 168
Player piano, 79
Polyani, Michael, 17
Population growth, data on, 30-33
Population sampling, 102, 110
Positive correlation, 65
Possibility samples, 117
Powers, James, 78
Precincts, as samples in election projections, 231, 232-33, 234
Precision journalism: defined, 2-3 , 6-7
Press, freedom of the, 238
Presser, Stanley, 121-22, 123, 125-27
Pretest-posttest design, , 176, 178
Price, H. Douglas, 8
Primacy effect, 126, 224
Primary elections, 248, 251
Privacy, invasion of, 237-40
Privacy Act of 1974, 239
Probability, 41, 57, 58, 60-61, 70; in sampling, 102, 103-4, 109, 113
Probability sampling, 69-73, 135-36, 216
Production rates, factory, experiment on, 175-77, 179
Properties, relation to dispositions, 152-56
Psychological testing, 125
Public access, databases created for, 187, 188-89
Public Law 94-171, 209
Public opinion, defining, 240-41
Public opinion polls, 20-21, 101, 139-67, 191, 241-53
Public records, 198; off-line retrieval, 187-88, 192-96
Public-use sample, of census data, 205
Punched cards, 77-78, 84
“Pygmalion effect,” 175
Quantitative analysis, of variance, 39
Quantitative information, in survey research, 120
Question asking, 118-32; in election polls, 219-21, 223-24, 235
Quota sampling, 135-36, 216
Race relations, 19 , 102
Race riots: theories on, 17-19 . See also Detroit Free Press; Miami Herald
Radicals, student: follow-up study, 156-58, 166-67
Random access memory (RAM), 96
Random deviation, 59
Random digit dialing (RDD), 107-9, 137
Random error, 33
Random selection, 104, 110-12, 117, 184-85
Rate: conversion of raw numbers into, 21-23; use of percentage base, 56
Ratio, 42, 62-63
Raw frequencies, 118-19
Reality testing, of theoretical models, 12-19
Recency effect, in surveys, 126, 223-24
Record matching, in databases, 195
Records, computer, 86-87, 94-96, 238. See also Files
Reference point, use in measuring variance, 42-45
Referendum model, in survey research, 119-20, 122, 124, 240-41
Refusals (in surveys): as error source, 217-18, 222; in exit polls, 234-35. See also No
answers
Regression, statistical, 36-38, 66-67, 180-81
Republican Party, 216, 223, 229
Resentful demoralization, 181
Responses, survey, 123, 125-26, 133, 142, 230; closed-end, 121; order, 126-27;
telephone, 105-6, 107
Robinson, John, 114
Roper Center of the University of Connecticut, 191
Rosenberg, Morris, 146, 150-51, 152, 155, 165-66, 167
Rosenthal, Robert, 175
Rowen, James, 237-38, 239
Royster, Vermont, 3
Sampling, 3, 60, 69-75, 77, 101-17; for additional census data, 210; demographic, 214; in
election polls, 216-23, 230, 234; in field experiments, 169; quota and probability, 135-36.
See also Probability sampling
Sampling error, 33, 72-75, 117, 142; chi-square as measuring, 59; in election polls, 215,
216-23
Sanders, Larry, 202
SAS (Statistical Analysis System), 83, 86, 87, 97, 99, 196; compared with SPSS, 91-94;
database research, 201, 202; files, 197, 198-99, 201; interpreting census data, 206, 211;
percentage analysis, 142; program for random digit dialing, 108-9; provision for missing
values, 94-95; weighting, 102, 227
Schuman, Howard, 118-19, 121-22, 123, 125-27
Scientific method, 5-7 , 8 , 165; 9-14 ; rules for experimentation, 171- 72, 253
Selective retention (Mortality), of subjects in experiments, 181, 183-84
Self-administered questionnaires (SAQs), 125, 126, 127-30, 132
Sequential weighting, for election polls, 227-28 Serendipity, 165-66
Shine, Neal, 233
Significance tests, 60-61, 67, 164-65. See also Chi-square
Skewness, as distribution form, 47, 49
Skip interval (sampling technique), 110
Smoothing, of data, 34-35, 36, 44-45
Social class, as variable, 144-45
Socioeconomic status, as combined variable, 159
Sperry Rand Corp., 80
Sperry Univac, 78
Spreadsheets, 85, 197
SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences), 33, 83, 85-94, 97, 194, 196; compared
with SAS, 91-94; and federal coding, 99; files, 198-99; index construction, 161;
interpreting census data, 206; percentage analysis, 142; provision for missing values, 94-
95; weighting, 102, 227
Standard deviation, 43-46, 73, 83, 88, 89
Standard error, in sampling, 73-75
Standard Rate and Data Service, 33
Stanley, Julian, 179
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 29-30
Statistical analysis, 39-75, 84, 196. See also SAS; SPSS
Statistical tests, in index construction, 161-62
Status consistency, 159
Steele, James B., 193, 196
Stem and leaf chart, 49-51
STF (Summary Tape Files), of census data, 210
Stouffer, Samuel, 165-66, 172-73, 177-78
Stratifying, in sampling, 114
Strentz, Herbert, x
Student t (T-test), 60
SuperCalc4 (computer program), 197
SYSTAT (computer program), 34
Tables, 148-51; three-way, 151-56, 165, 167; two-way, 167
Tabulator (punch card machine), 78
Tape drive, desktop, 97
Tapes, computer, 97-100, 193-94; census data on, 203-4, 205, 206, 208-9
Tasker, Fred, 194
Telephone surveys, 101, 103-9, 132, 134-35, 137-38; bias in sampling techniques, 114-
15; design weights, 226-27; as election poll technique, 216-17, 218, 222, 225; interviewer
training, 132-33; responses, 125, 127- 29
Television: election predictions, 230- 31, 234-35, 237, 249, 252; reporting of Dow Jones
Average, 25
Test factor (Control), 151
Testing effect, on participants, 176-77
“Times as,” in percentage difference, 26-27
Times Mirror, 11
“Times more,” in percentage difference, 26-27
Timing, in election polls, 229-30
Tocqueville, Alexis de, 240-41
Toxic waste, EPA database on, 202-3
Training: for experiments, 170-71; for surveys, 132-33
Trends, 28-38
Truncation, of percentages, 23-24
Truth, tentativeness of, in reality testing, 13
TSO (time-sharing option), 84
T-test (Student t), 60
Tukey, John W., 34, 47, 49-51
Undecided: in election polls, 224-26, 230, 252. See also Non-attitudes
Underage drinking, field research on, 170-71, 173-74
Uniform Crime Reports, 201-2, 204
Urban, Christine, 7
USA Today, 7-8 , 84, 97, 116, 142, 230; analysis procedures, 63-69; 1988 final election
poll, 252, 262 n.25; reading of EPA databases, 202-3; survey question on age, 130-31;
television screening survey, 127, 137-38
Validity, 133, 142
Values: expected, 41, 57-58; missing in databases, 94-95; observed, 57-58
Variable(s), 41, 53-56, 144-63, 174, 176; in AS&R Master File, 200-201;
binary/dichotomous, 41; continuous, 42-51, 61-69, 127-29, 160-61; creating new from
old, 159-64; in cross-tabulation percents, 54-56; dependent, 153-56, 163; independent,
124-25, 156-58, 163; in Miami Herald survey, 147, 149; recognition by SAS and SPSS,
87- 90; as suppressors or distorters, 146- 53; weighting in sampling, 102; in Wyoming
census case, 64-65
Variance, 39-40, 56-61, 72-73, 83; measuring methods, 40-75
Venn diagrams, 188-90
Voting: methods, 245-46; tactics on basis of poll information, 248-51, 262 n.19; turnout
projections, 231-32. See also Elections
Vu-Text Service, 187, 188-89, 191
Wallace, Julia D., 19
Wall Street Journal, 23
Washington Post, 212
Wattenberg, Ben, x
Weaver, David H., 28-30
Webb, Eugene J., 182-83
Weighting, 102, 106-7, 115; in election polls, 220, 222, 226-28
Wilhoit, G. Cleveland, 28-30
Wolfe, Tom, 4
Women's movement, effect on voting behavior, 216
Word processing, 76, 84, 85-86, 100
WYLBUR (computer editing system), 84
Wyoming, census data analysis, 63-69
XEDIT (computer editing system), 84
Yankelovich, Daniel, 144-45
Z-scores, 38

				
DOCUMENT INFO