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BRAINSTORMING Economic Indicator

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					                   BRAINSTORMING
         Brainstorming is the most known variety of conference problem.

The author of this method is A.R Osborn. In order to affect creative search

he separated faze of creation and faze of idea valuation. He also

introduced collective searches of ideas that take place during a session.

Practice and habits have a negative influence to creative effects. It

concerned searching in order to find new ideas and solutions. First of all

new ideas have been evaluated. This causes discontinuous in looking for

new ideas. Ideas that have not been pounded in mental schemes could be

also rejected. Idea that at beginning seems to be not real after obtaining

and later evaluation often is very useful.
  Brainstorming as a heuristic method is based on 2 main requirements:
    • Do not critic
    • To stimulate as many ideas as possible


    Cohabitation of a critic in faze of generation of ideas and its movement in
time to the evaluation faze is really important for efficiency of creative work. On
the one hand it props to creation, on the other hand it make possible to find
new, unconventional and innovatory ideas and conception.
    There are expectation that expert will create sore number of ideas in the
short period of time. Usually at first are reported already known and traditional
solution than appear the new one.
Other conditions and methodic requirements have complementary character,
due to them participators can:
1) Reports all ideas. Creative freedom allows introduce a conception from
different point of view. Because of this even unrealistic and fantastic ideas can
cause origin of realistic concepts well as solution of the problem
2) Unit and improve the ideas. Numerous ideas favor to creation some
combination of them. Positive modification increase probability of finding
optimal solution.
3) Report new suggestions without tailing other people’s ideas and waiting for
turn to express your ideas.
4) Present own ideas clearly and precisely. Precision and clarity of ideas help to
find leftover participators.
5) Use and develop other’s ideas. It means that there is no authorship of the
concepts. Ideas are the property of the group.


Condition for efficiency of brainstorming is compliance rules mentioned above,
assure of appropriate run of the research and selection of the right group of the
experts.
In searching process of new ideas due to brainstorming are 3 basic fazes:
preparation, creation and evaluation.
Preparation faze consist of: precision of the problem, collecting the information
about the problem and selection of the expert’s group. Collecting the
information is necessary for research organizer for precision and correcting
problem. Generally information collected is not available for participators of the
research. Because of separation of creative faze from evaluation faze 2 group of
the expert has been marked out:
     • Creative team. The goal is only creation of the concepts.
     • Evaluation team. The main aim is analyze and evaluate ideas generated,
     than elaborate of the variant for the problem.

It worth to mentioned that first team could be organized of the different kind of the
specialists, but the second team should be made only from experts in the field that problem
concerned.
Creation faze is suppose to start from the presenting of the problem and
remaining of the brainstorming rules. Reported ideas should be written down in
the obvious way for all participators of the research. At the end of the session
every idea has it own identification number. It make easier to create different
variants of solution at the evaluation faze. Sometimes introducing
complementary session of creation is recommended. It might help to increase
the number of ideas.
Evaluation faze consist of: appointment of evaluation criteria, analyze and
evaluation of ideas. Also presenting the final way for solution of the problem is
included. All ideas should be estimated including with analyze of the whole idea
or fragment of the concept. The goal of analyze is creation from the best
fragment the most apropos way of solution the problem.
Brainstorming is the method for searching the solution in the short period of
time. The best effects could be gained in case if problem is not very complicated
and easy to describe. Labor cost for the expert group is not big, but results are
usually very high.
Check if experts agree or not
      ECONOMIC SITUATION TEST
    • Every month or quarter
    • Two kinds of question: diagnostic and prognostic
    • Questions about demand, inflation, prices, employment, investments.
    • Qualitative research


Results of theses research are presented in a form of tables and charts
(especially pie-charts) and in the form of economic indicator.
Economic indicator is the difference between % of answers indicating good
situation and % of answers indicating bad situation. Economic indicators ranges
from –100 to 100. Positive value indicates good economic situation. Increment
of indicator’s value tells about improvement in economic situation.
Example 1
Questionnaire research about economic situation consist i.e such a question:
1. employment in current month comparing to the previous month:
    A. is greater
    B. is the same
    C. is smaller
This is an example of diagnostic question. Prognostic question:


2. employment in next month comparing to the current month:
    A. will be greater
    B. will be the same
    C. will be smaller
The questionnaire results:

                                         2008                                                         2009
    Employment
                   VII      VIII        IX         X        XI     XII         I           II    III     IV     V      VI
    Increase      19,2     23,7 27,1 21,6 19,1 21,2                           11,6     9,9      16,7     16,    15    17,4
    The same       64      63,4 60,8 64,2 62,6 60,2 62,8                              66,5 67,7 65,3 66,7 63,6
    Decrease      16,8     12,9 12,1 14,2 18,3 18,6 25,6                              23,6 15,6 18,7 18,3              19


 In the most cases industries haven’t noticed changes in employment.


                                    2008                                                        2009
  Employment
                 VII     VIII      IX        X         XI    XII          I           II        III      IV     V     VI

  Balance        2,4     10,8      15        7,4       0,8 2,6           -14         -13,7      1,1     -2,7   -3,3   -1,6



The greatest increment in number of employees was in August 2008. In January
and February 2009 the majority of industries reduced the employment.
Example 2
    Private enterprises evaluated the overall economic situation:
    Current: very good –25%, satisfied – 35%, bad – 40%
    Future: will be better – 15%, won’t change – 65%, will be worse – 20%
•Do they have better opinion about their current economic situation or future?
         for current: 25%-40%= -15%
         for future: 15%-20%= -5%
Better opinion about future economic situation
•Calculate the ratio of overall economic situation and interpret its meaning.
         For current –15%; for future –5%
         Average ((-15)+(-5))/2= -20/2= -10
Economic situation indicator is negative value. It indicates that the most number of
industries aren’t satisfied with their economic situation.
             HISTORIC ANALOGIES
Method of historic analogies rely on transmission of regularity of
changes in time some variables to another variables which occur
in the same object. In process of forecasting we use partition of
variables to two groups: {uphill; device} variables and delayed
variables. Device variables are used to determine forecast,
delayed variables are forecasted variables. Using historic
analogies allow us to determine middle- and long-term forecasts.
Example 1
  Enterprise of smoking goods “Fumare” SA keep selling of cigarettes of two
brands “Mewa” and “Sobieski”. Cigarettes “Sobieski” have been selling for few
years, cigarettes “Mewa” have been selling since December 2006. The amount of
selling cigarettes both brands are presented in table. It is needed to determine
expected amount of selling cigarettes “Mewa” for the nearest two months .
                Selling of cigarretes (in              Selling of cigarretes (in
                thousand of units)                       thousand of units)

      Periods     "Mewa"      "Sobieski" Periods        "Mewa"      "Sobieski"
2006 December     120.00        198.00 2007 December    495.00        787.50
2007                                     2008
January           105.15        252.00 January           570.00       570.00
Fabuary            90.00        322.50 Fabuary           645.00       563.40
March             150.90        383.40 March             813.00       495.00
April             195.00        331.20 April             786.00       443.70
May               252.00        315.75 May               616.20       406.20
June              315.00        396.00 June              562.50       355.50
July              382.05        510.90 July              498.45       325.50
August            330.45        502.50 August            443.10       285.00
September         313.80        562.50 September         404.70       262.50
October           390.00        657.00 October           360.30       249.00
November          518.55        840.00 November          324.00       210.00
Analysis of chart show big similarity of the amount of selling both brands of
cigarettes, both in process in changes, and in the amount of selling.
To determine forecast of the amount of selling cigarettes of brand “Mewa” we
use historic analogies. It is worth to mention that the biggest sale of cigarettes
“Sobieski” occur in November 2007 and the biggest sale of cigarettes “Mewa”
occur in March 2008. We can adjudge that the amount of selling cigarettes
“Mewa” will be shaped (formed) similar to the amount of selling cigarettes
“Sobieski” but will be delayed by four periods (p=4). We will build model,
which will take into consideration this grade of delay.
Form of estimated model :
                  Yt= 3,832 + 0,991 ∙ Xt-4                  R2 = 0,994 .
  Parameter standing next to variable X is statistically significant at the level
of α = 0,05. T-student statistic for b1 parameter is equal to 53,889 and it is bigger
than tα = 2,101 from t-student distribution table for 18 degrees of freedom.
Model which are build we can adjudge for good and use it to estimate forecast
for the nearest two periods (for December 2008 and January 2009).
Predicted amount of selling cigarettes “Mewa” in December 2008 (T=25):

     YT=25 = 3,832 + 0,991 ∙ X25-4 = 3,832 + 0,991 ∙ 285 =
        = 286,36 [thousand of units],

Predicted amount of selling cigarettes “Mewa” in November 2009 (T=26):

     YT=26 = 3,832 + 0,991 ∙ X26-4 = 3,832 + 0,991 ∙ 262,5 =
        = 263,97 [thousand of units].

				
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posted:1/1/2011
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