Contest Safety PowerPoint Presentation Devaluation

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Contest Safety PowerPoint Presentation Devaluation Powered By Docstoc
					                          Contest Safety
Why contest safety?
For you/me:
1. Special kind of flying, pilots; Where are the traps?

For all of us:
1. We can do something to reduce the accident rate.
2. Attract more pilots to contests.
3. Rules committee listens to what pilots want!

Preview:
1. What are the dangers of contest soaring (NTSB)?
2. What are patterns, scenarios?
3. How can we avoid them? Safety psychology.
4. Can rules/procedures changes reduce the accident rate?
  How many pilots think about crashes




“Only a Bozo would do that.”
“Can‟t we rely on pilot judgment?”
“Oh, x was a terrible pilot”
“Experienced pilots wouldn‟t do that.”
“I‟ve been flying 30 years, and I‟ve never had a problem with that”

Reichmann. Holighaus. Gerbaud. Bowman.
Experience, great skill do not make you immune
Cannot rely on personal experience to spot dangers
                      NTSB + JC serious crashes at contests 1983-2001


                           Midair     Outland,     Finish,      Assembl       Take    Total
                                      Terrain      Landing      y/ inflight   off
Pilot      Fatality        3          5            2            1             0       11
Injury
           Serious         0          8            6            1             0       15

No or      Destroyed       3          3            1            1             0       8
minor
injury     Substantial     4          12           1            2             2       19

           Minor           4                                                          4

           Total           14         29           11           5             2       60

2001 SRA Pilot poll*       72%        11%          8%           5%



         *"Please indicate your number one safety concern for this contest season."
                  Contest Accident Summary

1. Overall level (understated!)
1 fatality / 2 years, 1 serious injury / year, many gliders totaled.
About 500 pilots on seeding list

You/I face a serious risk.
Willing to face another 20 years like this?


2. Categories
Pilot concern: Midair (“the other guy” + near miss experience).
Fact: Outlandings remain #1.
Surprise: Crashes at and near home airport!

Look at 1) Close-in/airport crash, 2) Outlandings, 3) Midairs.
                      1. Crashes after finish at home airport
1986    Uvalde           ASW20          Serious        Stall/spin. 50 foot 85 kt finish
1986    Uvalde           LS6            Substantia     Relight, lands short, traffic
1990    Cal. City        Nimbus 2       l
                                        Fatal          Slow finish, stall-spin
1991    Hinckley         Kestrel 19     Serious        Collision on final. 1 Above/behind
1991    Hinckley         Pegasus        Serious          Despite radio contact
1994    Littlefield      1-26           Serious        Stall spin after low slow finish
1995    Newcastle        Discus         Total          Lands short. High wind, rotor
2000    Sugarbush        V2CM           Serious        Stall spin base to final after finish
2001    Montague         Nimbus 3       Injury         Cartwheel, landing in strong x wind
2001    Uvalde           SZD 55         Fatal          Stall spin after low finish (rest day)
2001    Wurtsburo        Discus CS      Fatal          Stall spin after low finish (not at contest)
                           2. Crashes near home airport
199? Ionia     ASW20        Substantial Final glide, landed short

1994 Ionia     ASW20        Substantial 1 mile out. Did not get back off tow.
1995 Uvalde    ASW24        Destroyed    Racetrack N. of airport on final glide
1997 Minden    ASW20        Serious      8 Miles out. Sink, wind, “too much to land, not enough
                                         for pattern.”
1997 Hobbs     Ventus2      Fatal        2-3 miles out on final glide, strong headwind. Passed
                                         field, low circle, turned downwind, wires, stall/spin.
          Why is stall/spin such a problem? (reminder)

 1. No close calls to warn you, very hard to survive




2. It‟s not the spin, it‟s the setup.
   Spin at the end of a “attention overload” sequence.
                                 Low finish scenario
    Surprise: no turn on point

Too much rudder

                                           Pull back to expected altitude
        Nose falls,       X
        Pull back
                                                 Eyes see groundspeed



                                           Distractions – traffic, checklist (?!) gear, spoilers..
 Attention overload.
 Habits fool you down low
 Need high proficiency.
                                              A little low/slow?
 Note gear up landings!
                                                                         Wind
                  2 mile out crash scenario

                    Airport 2 miles                                               Wind
                                                                                  18 G 26


       300‟. This is nuts,                Sees wires, downwind illusion = spin
       I‟d better not

                                         X

 Beep Beep. Turn here!                                  I guess the thermal petered out
                                                        350‟ = Mc0+50‟ Can I make it?




Boop boop Oh $%&@,                                  Critical point for into-wind landing
The thermal‟s up wind
                             Beep beep..could this be a thermal?


                         350‟ = Mc0+50‟. Field or go for it?
                         400 points! All those great Soaring stories!
                           Coffin corner on final glide
                           Where would you thermal or land?

            Mc3+300‟

                     Mc3 = 80kts dry, 90 kts wet
2000


1500                                    Critical zone


1000    Mc0=53 kts                                 Decisions: 300‟!


500

                                                                      Low slow finish
 0
       10                        5          Last minute landing   0
       What can you do to avoid end of flight crash?

1. Don‟t do low final glides until you know the fields!
2. Fences, wires, hills, ditches, approaches, …draw map?

Safety psychology:
• You won‟t have time to think.
• You will be very tempted.
• Early in the sequence – “this is how pilots kill themselves”
• Focus conscious attention on flight mechanics, how subconscious
   is deceiving you.
• Plan, visualize high stress situations
• Decide now to give up and land early.
• Decide now to do a rolling finish early.
• Decide now not to do low final glides/finishes.
• Even if others fly by!
       What can rules do to make the end of the flight safer?
Approach:
1. Can a rules change reduce accidents?
2. Will it make the contest less fair or meaningful?
3. Will it reduce fun too much?
Here: #1 only.
Up to you: find the balance.
Right balance is different for sports regionals / 15 M worlds.
Will present many ideas, not proposals.
• Move the ground down 1000‟.

•    “High finish.”
1.   500-1000‟ minimum finish altitude.
2.   Any lower, you get distance points only.
3.   Followed by normal downwind, base, final.
                High finish removes coffin corner
3000
                                     •Not “safety finish”:
                                     •50‟ is not enough. 500‟ min.
2500                    Mc3          •Cannot give speed pts for rolling finish
                                     •Crucial: don’t press on from critical zone
            Mc0                      •“But I made it back” = “But I got so close”
2000                                    Glide home

1500
            Stop, thermal, look at fields
1000                                                              Finish
                                   Ex - Critical zone

500
                Pattern, Land
 0
       10                        5                              0
                 High finish: pro and con

Pro: High finish should sharply reduce stall/spin, low finish, near
airport crashes, midair in pattern.

•Only truly Bozo crashes left, not attention overload.
•High finish makes no difference to the race.

Con: Fun!
                    High finish alternatives

1. Post-finish aerobatics box.
   Do that loop. Do an outside loop. Strafe the spectators!

2. Pass 1000‟ 2 miles out, then finish low over the airport.
   Pros: -High energy finish,
         -Eliminates close-in crashes,
         -Preserves fun low finish.
   Cons: -Retains potential for low finish crackup,
         -Potential for collision in “pattern.”
Low fast finish is fun. Is white-knuckle final glide really that fun?

3. Do nothing. Rely on safety talks, pilot judgment.
   Pro: Retains “fun” of low (over ground) final glides.
   Con: Will result in injured and killed pilots, totaled gliders.
                                Outlandings -- still #1
1. Stall/spin
 1984      TX            1-26         Serious        Stall/spin 360s at 100‟ after 6 hr flight.
 1985      Sugarbush     Ventus       Fatal          Stall/spin outlanding
 1986      Hobbs         ASW20        Serious        Stall/spin; hit power lines
 1988      CA            ASW20        Serious        Stall spin outlanding. Water still in
 1991      NY?           1-26         Serious        Stall/spin, landing on road
 1993      Turf          1-35         Substantial    Avoiding powerlines. Heading to airport, “found sink”
 1997      Harris Hill   ASW19        Total          Stall/spin outlanding. “Pilot overload”
 1999      Hobbs         Ventus       Substantial    Stall spin while avoiding wires

2. Terrain impact
 1983      Bishop        LS3           Fatal          Wind shift, lee side turbulence
 1991      PA            ASW24         Substantial    “wind shift” “donwdraft” in trees on ridge
 1995      Newcastle                   Total?         In trees on ridge; strong x wind
 1995      Newcastle                                  In trees on ridge; strong x wind
 1986      VT            LS4           Fatal          Seen 15 mi out circling to clear ridge
 2000      Mifflin       Ventus        Total          Missed ridge transition, in trees

3. Miscellaneous
 1985      Montague      LS3           Fatal          Strong winds. Cause unknown
 1997      Montague      Nimbus3       Substantial    Hit wires. 4 miles from intended strip
 1997      VT            Pik 20E       Substantial    “Sink put me in trees on final” “pressure of circumstances”
 1991      Cal city      Ventus        Serious        Low slow approach to Mojave, hit berm
 1995      Minden        Pik 30E       Serious        “In process of extending engine”
                           Outlandings
Patterns in outlanding crashes
1. Stall spin.

2. Attention overload, long setup to stall/spin.
•Bad weather – high winds, storms, etc.
•Last minute decisions, last minute thermaling, last minute field
selection/changes.
•On way to, and near airports! “Unexpected sink.”

What can you do to avoid these crashes?

1. Understand computers, safety altitudes!
                        Final Glide Calculation

Mc=3
30:1




Mc=0,
40:1
                                                          Mostly



                                                                   Sometimes
                                           Rarely, but good terrain

 Computer assumes lift = sink. Appropriate for final glide
                        Safety altitude calculation


Mc=3
30:1




Mc=0,
40:1

                    !


                                                                  Never!


 •Moral: the only time you need it, the lift = sink calculation fails!
                         Safety altitudes


Safety calculation should be much more conservative than final
glide calculation – assume sink all the way!
Alps: 20:1!
“Worst case” not “average.”

Instrument makers: separate glide (20:1, 100fpm sink) for alternates.
You/me: Understand the trap, keep a large margin! No “headed to
    airport, found „unexpected‟ sink!”

What else can you do?
1. Plan ahead for high stress decisions.
2. Recognize the beginning of the sequence.
3. You will be tempted!
4. If you‟re in trouble, likely everyone else is too!
   Outlanding crashes – what can rules and procedures do?
Less flying in bad weather, terrain

1. PST, AAT, MAT
2. All AST to be MAT – come home for speed points.
3. No fixed minimum time; distance points instead
PST Objections later
4. Field guides; pictures, approaches, obstacles, not just useless GPS.
   Fly from known field to known field.
5. Move the ground down!
   Count you as landed out at X (500‟? 1000‟?) (Over valley floor).
   Yes, have dug out. Many crashes have circling first!
   Point: gives incentive to become conservative at 1,500‟, not 500‟
6. How to end race? Not “Sorry, the gate is open.”
                               Mid-air collisions

1983   Minden    Std. Cirrus    Fatal    Leaving thermal. “Flying together”?
                 Std. Cirrus    None     Landed
1984   Ephrata   ASW20          Fatal    While joining gaggle
                 Ventus A       None     Bailed out OK
1984   Ephrata   Zuni II        None     Nose to tail while thermaling
                 ASW20          None
1988   Chester   LS4            None     Thermaling midair. Landed
                 LS4            None     Bailed out
1988 Minden      Discus A       None     Thermaling midair. Bailed out.
                 Discus B       None     Landed
1991   Uvalde    Discus B       Minor    20 glider gaggle. Bailed out
                 SZD 55         Fatal    20 glider gaggle.
1991   Hinckley Pegasus         ?        Final approach. 1 above/behind.
                 Kestrel 19     Serious Had radio contact
1997 Ionia       ASW20          None     Winglet damage. Landed
                 ?              None     ?
                        Mid-air collisions


•Many different kinds, situations for midair.
•#1 issue for racing pilots – important bar to participation?

What can you do?

1.   Listen to safety talks!
2.   Thermal entry, exit, sharing is not easy.
3.   No wild pull up/push in flight.
4.   Be like Karl.
5.   Somebody is “the other guy!” Is it you?
    Midair collisions – what can rules/procedures do?

1. Change rules to reduce gaggling/leeching/start gate roulette
    a. Reduce incentive to do it (race structure)
    b. Reduce ability to do it (start procedure)

2. PST/MAT/AAT
   - PST reduces GLS
   - MAT AAT?

Issues:
•Unpopular with some pilots – important!
•PST MAT AAT collision worries? No data yet.
•Does affect race. “Race” vs. “Contest”
•If you like “race,” don‟t complain about the gaggles!
             Midair collisions – what can rules do?
3. Starts: PEV, multiple start points, no call-back
     Pro: Reduce leeching of specific pilots.
     Con: Reduce roulette/gaggle?
          Impedes ability to leech, not incentive to leech.
          May still gaggle at 4950‟, spoilers open, watching starts
          Adds luck factor

4. Increase incentive to be “lone wolf.” Then everyone leaves early!

  a) Reduce devaluation when there are lots of late starts.
  b) Point bonuses for early starts, start order?
      Midair collisions – wild ideas that just might work

5. Allow team flying, as in bicycle races.
   Pro: A team can leave early; break away from gaggle (worlds)
   Con: Many. New pilots?
6. Allow thermal detectors
a) Will be made, cheap, good display for lookout.
b) Will not make soaring easy, any more than the vario did.
c) Will end gaggling, leeching, start gate roulette.
d) Will increase landout safety.
7. Challenge: change AST so gaggle/leech/roulette is not attractive?
        Spread out more?

1. 1 mile radius/FAI turnpoints for AST
2. Smaller races, heats?
                           Bottom line
•Landouts, low finish energy are still the biggest source of crashes.
•Most crashes in high stress / attention overload situations.
•Rules: Simple steps can substantially cut fatality, serious injury rate,
by keeping pilots away from those situations.
1. High finish for speed points.
2. MAT AAT PST, no min time.
3. Reduce devaluation for late starts.
4. Field mapping at popular sites.
5. …..Let‟s think of some more!
•Proper balance depends on race. More for regionals!
•Philosophy
 1. Incentives vs. fairness (e.g. close-in landing, rolling finish)
 2. “Race” vs. “Contest”
 3. “Trust pilot judgment” vs. “keep race away from fire”
 4. Attitude towards crashes. No more Bozo, alien abductions.
 5. Apply the Bowman lesson to the rest of racing.
                           What can you do?

1.   Safety psychology; thought patterns that lead to bad decisions.
2.   Listen hard to Charlie Spratt speech.
3.   Mentally prepare, visualize high stress/quick decision situations.
4.   Recognize beginning of pattern that leads to trouble.
     a) Landout crash sequence.
     b) Close – in; slow finish sequence.
5.   Recognize “bad thoughts” – high stress, attention narrowing,
     subconscious flying the plane.
6.   Make your own decisions – what‟s safe for the big boys is not
     necessarily safe for you & me.
7.   Few will be remembered as fast. Many can be remembered as
     safe.
8.   Tell the rules committee how you feel!


     Objective……

				
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