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Diapositiva 1_76_

VIEWS: 5 PAGES: 20

									                                                                                                       STATUS OF HEALTH - CLIMATE
                                                                                                             APPLICATIONS
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                                   AT
                                                                                                    SPANISH METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009




                                                                                                                (AEMET)
                                                   CPASW 2009




                                                                                                                      speaker: José L. Camacho

                                                                                                                                              AEMET

                                                                                                                   camacho@inm.es /Tel: 915810204
                                                                                                        Contributors board by alphabetical order:

                                                                                                    •      G. Ballester
                                                                                                    •      A. Cadenas
                                                                                                    •      J.L. Camacho
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                    •      D. Cano
                                                                                                    •      A. Cansado
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009




                                                                                                    •      E. Cuevas
                                                   CPASW 2009




                                                                                                    •      M. López
                                                                                                    •      A. Mestre

                                                                                                    All authors are part of AEMET staff
                                                                                                            Health issues – A raising public concern and
                                                                                                                     a worry for finance officers

                                                                                                    • Climate change.. WG2 report Chapter 9. “Global climate
                                                                                                      change will have a wide range of health impacts”.
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                    • Social factors: Diseases easier spread due to travel and
                                                                                                      exchange of goods: Imported used tires with mosquito
                                                                                                      larvae, Influenza or viruses transmitted by air travelers.
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009




                                                                                                    • Health costs into public or private sectors. Incorporated
                                                   CPASW 2009




                                                                                                      weather/climate info allows better management, save costs
                                                                                                      and increases human quality of life (hard to account but real)

                                                                                                    • Increased cooperation between health and weather experts
                                                                                                      enhance quality of delivered products and pave the road to
                                                                                                      improved decisions.

                                                                                                    • Summarizing: Increased threads, need actions to reduce
                                                                                                      vulnerability
                                                                                                       Four main action packages + international cooperation

                                                                                                    1- Pollen so called “green pollution”. Increased sensitivity. Sometimes
                                                                                                    related with urban environmental factors. (A mix of green and brown
                                                                                                    pollution).

                                                                                                    2-Ultraviolet B radiation. Linked to stratospheric ozone evolution. Also
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                    to aerosols. Outdoor activities increased: sports, sunbaths, children
                                                                                                    care.
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009




                                                                                                    3- Thermal comfort. Temperature effect modulation according moisture,
                                                                                                    wind and radiation. Working environment. Heat waves. Cold spells.
                                                   CPASW 2009




                                                                                                    4-Diseases related with weather and climate changes (including
                                                                                                    emergent diseases).

                                                                                                    5- WMO Sand and Dust Storm Monitoring Centre for Northern Africa
                                                                                                    and the Mediterranean area . Meningitis monitoring at the Sahel.
                                                                                                                Pollen allergies and asthma

                                                                                                    • Asthma prevalence is 5% in Europe. 4/5 or asthma
                                                                                                      patients have a positive prick-skin. I
                                                                                                    • Madrid, in 1993, 6,5% of the population (ranging 18 -44
                                                                                                      years) had suffered one asthma crisis or took medicines
                                                                                                      against in their life and 3,0% had suffered one crisis or
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                      took medicines in the last year. In 1997, those number
                                                                                                      rose to 8,3 and 3,9 %.
                                                                                                    • Population younger than 15 years have NINE times more
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009




                                                                                                      urgencies incidences related with asthma than the other
                                                                                                      segment. (Studies made in 1999 in Madrid)
                                                   CPASW 2009




                                                                                                    • Pollen impact: 60% of asthma patients are allergic to grass
                                                                                                      and 30% to plane tree pollen.
                                                                                                    • Studies made in Madrid showed that 94% of persons
                                                                                                      sensitive to allergenic pollens react to grass (hay fever)
                                                                                                      and 56% react to plane tree pollen.
                                                                                                    • Significant number of asthmatic crisis derived into urgency
                                                                                                      services or hospitalization
                                                                                                    • Estimated cost of a hospitalization single day = 800 USD
                                                                                                      (In Spain)
                                                                                                    • Preventive medication estimated cost = 100 USD
                                                                                                    Pollen. Start date pollination. Plane tree example
                                                                                                                  2.200
                                                                                                                  2.000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1994
                                                                                                                  1.800                                                                                                                                                 1995
                                                                                                                  1.600                                                                                                                                                 1996
                                                                                                                  1.400
                                                                                                                  1.200
                                                                                                                  1.000
                                                                                                                       800
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                                       600
                                                                                                                       400
                                                                                                                       200




                                                                                                                  grains/m3
                                                                                                                              0




                                                                                                                                  1 Mar.

                                                                                                                                           4 Mar.

                                                                                                                                                    7 Mar.

                                                                                                                                                             10 Mar.

                                                                                                                                                                       13 Mar.

                                                                                                                                                                                 16 Mar.

                                                                                                                                                                                           19 Mar.

                                                                                                                                                                                                     22 Mar.

                                                                                                                                                                                                               25 Mar.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         28 Mar.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   31 Mar.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3 Apr.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      6 Apr.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               9 Apr.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        12 Apr

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 15 Apr
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009
                                                   CPASW 2009




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Close cooperation with
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Regional Health Authorities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            in Madrid
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Extended to grass pollen
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Olive tree pollen subdued
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      into grass maximum
                                                                                                                    Pollen. Storms and Asthma


                                                                                                    •   Thunderstorm-associated asthma in an inland town in south-
                                                                                                        eastern Australia. Who is at risk? S.T Girgis, G.B. Marks, S.H.
                                                                                                        Downs, A. Kolbe, G.N. Car, R. Paton. #ERS Journals Ltd 2000.
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                    •   Madrid 2000-2008. Urgencies admission by asthma. 4 cases 10
                                                                                                        times normal levels. Always strong TS relationship.

                                                                                                    •   TS characterization in such extreme cases towards early warning
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009




                                                                                                        system. Environmental modelization (statistical and deterministic)
                                                                                                        to capture less clear events.
                                                   CPASW 2009
                                                                                                                                    Spectral irradiance Madrid 20081116

                                                                                                         Ultraviolet B monitoring
                                                                                                             and forecasting

                                                                                                    UVB radiation network:

                                                                                                    • 25 Pyranometers UVB-1YES
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                    •7 Brewer Spectrophotometer.
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009
                                                   CPASW 2009
                                                                                                         Ultraviolet B monitoring and forecasting


                                                                                                    UVB forecast – UVI and UVI max based on

                                                                                                    •Radiative Transfer Model LibRadtran
                                                                                                    •Total Ozone in Column Forecasted by ECMWF.
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                                                        Forecast UVI Max D+5 from 9 March 2009. to 14 March
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009
                                                   CPASW 2009
                                                                                                                                                             Thermal
                                                                                                                                                             comfort
                                                                                                                                                             Indexes
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop


                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009
                                                   CPASW 2009




                                                                                                    Combined Heat Index +              Pronostico Navacerrada Temperatura, wind chill y temp
                                                                                                                                        aparente. Martes 28 Oct D+1 hasta Lunes (3 Nov) D+7
                                                                                                    Wind Chill                    8
                                                                                                                                                                                               tem 8215
                                                                                                                                  6
                                                                                                                                                                                               ww 8215
                                                                                                                                  4
                                                                                                    NOAA equations used           2
                                                                                                                                                                                               tap 8215


                                                                                                                                  0
                                                                                                                             ºC



                                                                                                    Wind chill T <12 ºC           -2
                                                                                                                                  -4
                                                                                                                                  -6
                                                                                                    Heat Index T > 22º C          -8
                                                                                                                              -10
                                                                                                                              -12
                                                                                                    Any other case: T only
                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                        6
                                                                                                                                       12
                                                                                                                                       18
                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                        6
                                                                                                                                       12
                                                                                                                                       18
                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                        6
                                                                                                                                       12
                                                                                                                                       18
                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                        6
                                                                                                                                       12
                                                                                                                                       18
                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                        6
                                                                                                                                       12
                                                                                                                                       18
                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                        6
                                                                                                                                       12
                                                                                                                                       18
                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                        6
                                                                                                                                       12
                                                                                                                                       18
                                                                                                                                                               Horas UTC
                                                                                                    Thermal comfort. Heat Waves

                                                                                                    Heat wave. Max and min            Public services actions: Advices
                                                                                                    temperature above thresholds by   at the start of the season,
                                                                                                    several consecutive days.         general warning on event and
                                                                                                    Thresholds are dependant on       surveillance of vulnerable
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                    social conditions: adaptation     population segments (elderly,
                                                                                                    measurements.                     disabled, children,…)
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009
                                                   CPASW 2009
                                                                                                                Diseases modulated by weather



                                                                                                    Heart attacks. Brain and vascular accidents.:

                                                                                                    Helping research conducted by Health Mobile Urgencies Service
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                    in Madrid. Relationship between cold temperatures and Heart
                                                                                                    Attacks
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009
                                                   CPASW 2009
                                                                                                                           Emergent diseases
                                                                                                    Vector modulated diseases,

                                                                                                    At risk: Populations that have not
                                                                                                    been previously exposed to disease
                                                                                                    agent: „herd immunity‟
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop


                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009
                                                   CPASW 2009




                                                                                                       Aedes
                                                                                                     Albopictus




                                                                                                                                               Chikungunyia
                                                                                                                                               West Nile fever
                                                                                                                                                  Dengue
                                                                                                                                                Yellow fever
                                                                                                     WMO SAND AND DUST STORM WARNING ADVISORY AND
                                                                                                                     ASSESSMENT SYSTEM
                                                                                                    Regional SDSWAS Center for North Africa, Europe and Middle East
                                                                                                    •Supports a node in a global network of SDS-WAS research and operational
                                                                                                     partners implementing SDS-WAS objectives in a region. The members of this
                                                                                                     node are the host institution of the SDS-WAS RC and regional partners engaged
                                                                                                     in research and operations of SDS-WAS. The node itself is organized as a
                                                                                                     federated system.
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                    •Objectives

                                                                                                    • To provide a web-based portal for user access to regional research and
                                                                                                     forecast activities and services
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009




                                                                                                    • To provide neutral ground for operations, research and capacity building in the
                                                                                                     region and to build partnerships
                                                   CPASW 2009




                                                                                                    • To support the identification and organization of activities through a regional
                                                                                                     steering group (RSG) consisting of representatives of members of the regional
                                                                                                     node covering research, operations and selected users. SDS-RC supports the
                                                                                                     activities of the node agreed upon by the Regional Steering Group. The
                                                                                                     appointment and organization of the RSG activities are assisted by the WMO
                                                                                                     Secretariat

                                                                                                    • To cooperate with existing operational service delivery mechanisms,
                                                                                                     recognizing that warnings related to SDS-WAS are generally the responsibility
                                                                                                     of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and that
                                                                                                     SDS-WAS products provide input to NMHSs.

                                                                                                    • To report to the SDS-WAS Steering Committee annually
REGIONAL NODE
                                                                                                                   REGIONAL CENTER
                      Partner 1                                                                                                                  Value-added
                                                                                                                                             products and services


                      Partner 2
                                                                                                     Observations            long-term
                                                                                                                             data archives        Analysis
 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                      Partner 3




                                                                                                                                                                     U S E R S
                      Partner 4                                                                                          CAL/VAL              + Capacity
                                                                                                      Validation
                                                                 Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009




                                                                                                                           QA                 Building
                                                    CPASW 2009




                      Partner 5

                                                                                                                                                Monitoring
                      Partner 6
                                                                                                                            near real-time
                                                                                                      Modeling
                                     …
                                                                                                                            data archives
                                                                                                                                               Forecasting


                                           Partner n
                                                                                                                                    Near real-time monitoring

                                                                                                         PHOTONS/AERONET
                                                                                                         - AOD
                                                                                                         - Size distribution
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                                                      SYNOP and METAR:
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009




                                                                                                                                      -Visibility
                                                                                                                                      -Meteorology??
                                                   CPASW 2009




                                                                                                                                       Surface Winds!!!




                                                                                                    EARLINET



                                                                                                               PM10 Network
                                                                                                               In Southern Europe
                                                                                                                                         Near real-time monitoring
PHASE-1 (2009-2010)
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                    Seawifs                       MSG SEVIRI; 15‟-frame movies
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009




                                                                                                               OMAERO AOD
                                                   CPASW 2009




                                                                                                                      OMI AI




                                                                                                                        Calipso
                                                                                                              Modis
                                                                                                    WP_R-HEALTH_3: The Sand and Dust Storm Warning System as a key
                                                                                                    component of a forecasting model for meningitis epidemics (Acronym:
                                                                                                    MENINGODUST)

                                                                                                    FP7 proposal (MACC: Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) builds
                                                                                                                                                 Mineral Dust
                                                                                                    on the EU and ESA investments in GEMS & PROMOTE.

                                                                                                                                                 Impacts
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop


                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009
                                                   CPASW 2009
                                                                                                                 Main conclusions:


                                                                                                    •Weather and climate information is basic to improve
                                                                                                     preventive health care actions and planning.

                                                                                                    •Extreme events on allergenic pollen are first targets
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop




                                                                                                     to develop early warning procedure in cooperation
                                                                                                     with Health Authorities and Research Institutions.
                                                                Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009




                                                                                                    •Thermal comfort and UVB forecasts are currently
                                                                                                     expected outcomes from a NWS specially in a
                                                   CPASW 2009




                                                                                                     touristic country as Spain.

                                                                                                    •Capability to work into emergent diseases
                                                                                                     associated with societal and climate changes
                                                                                                     should be developed.

                                                                                                    •AEMET and WMO are developing a Sand and Dust
                                                                                                     Storm Centre to monitor NW African aerosol load
                                                                                                     and open to international cooperation
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop
                  CPASW 2009
            Norman, Oklahoma 24-27 March 2009



                                                   Thanks

								
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