CCM'S Glyphosate Risk Assessment

							Why to use the
Glyphosate Risk
Assessment Model?                Why shall choose Glyphosate Risk


                                                                                                       Glyphosate Risk
To know the factors
                                 Assessment Model from CCM?
affecting the glyphosate
industry                           Accumulated 7-year research experience in glyphosate industry
To get the in-depth analysis



                                                                                                       Assessment Model
in glyphosate industry             With a glyphosate database involved in CCM dynamic database
To know the development            ValoTracer, providing timely, accurate & complete on-line service
tendency of glyphosate             of glyphosate
from the past to the future




                                                                                                       –China
                                   Different types of services in glyphosate including Report,
To know how the tendency
comes out with enough              Newsletter, Trade Analysis, Price Monitoring, etc.
data support
                                   Focus not only on the glyphosate itself, but also a systematic
                                   research from raw materials upstream to downstream

                                   With a 5-person professional research team, engaging in
      When to invest?              glyphosate industry research specially
      Why to invest?
      Where to invest?             A long-term friendly cooperation relationship with many
      How to avoid
                                   companies, e.g. Monsanto, Sinochem, Helm, Barclay, Red Surcos,
                                   PTT Public Chemicals, Loveland Products, etc.
                                                                                                       What is the Glyphosate Risk Assessment Model?
      potential loss?



                                                                                                       It’s a precaution model with scoring system, supported by professional analysis &
Who should use the                                                                                     suggestion. The model aims at evaluating the risk degree for the whole Chinese glyphosate
Glyphosate Risk                                                                                        industry based on an analysis of the main factors influencing glyphosate. It’s a unique
Assessment Model?                                                                                      model to assess the risk from the whole glyphosate industry rather than from partial
Banks                                                                                                  aspects of the industry. The risk assessment will be illustrated by the following charts.
Traders
Manufacturers
Governments
Securities firms
Investment firms
Research Institutes
……
Related research:

ValoTracer:
Agriculture database
Glyphosate database

Newsletter:
Crop Protection China News
Herbicides China News
Glyphosate China Monthly
Report

Report:
World Outlook of Glyphosate
2009-2014 - Edition(1)
Outlook for China Glyphosate
Industry 2009-2014 -             CCM International Ltd.
Edition(6)                       Guangzhou CCM Information Science & Technology Co., Ltd.
Glyphosate Competitiveness       Tel: 86-20-3761 6606                Fax: 86-20-3761 6968
Analysis in China - Edition(1)   Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com
                                 Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com
Glyphosate Risk Assessment Model –China



                                                                                                    Why to do Glyphosate Risk Assessment Model?
                                                                    Enterprise Approval             Over 25 years application and promotion, glyphosate has become the largest
                                                                    Score: 80                       pesticide in the world pursued by many manufacturers. There are great
                                                                                                    opportunities and large consumption volume in glyphosate industry. However,
                                                                                                    it has been affected by a mass of unexpected factors.
                                    Policy                          Environmental Expenditure
                                    Score: 70                       Score: 50                       Chinese glyphosate industry has experienced drastic fluctuations in the past 4
                                                                                                    years, and many investors have suffered great loss in glyphosate business due




                                                                                                                                                                                             Glyphosate
                                                                                                    to their unawareness of the potential risks in the glyphosate price hike seasons,
                                                                    Export Rebate                   as well as the real situation of Chinese glyphosate industry.
                                                                    Score: 100
                                                                                                    Based on over six-year experiences in global glyphosate industry, CCM realizes
                                                                    Industry Centralization         that it is important and necessary to establish a unique model to evaluate
                                                                    Score: 21                       prosperity degree and risk for the whole Chinese glyphosate industry, so as to
                                                                                                    help the market participants make right strategies or decisions.

                                    Operation                       ROI
                                    Score: 17                       Score: 11
                                                                                                    What is the Methodology of CCM Glyphosate
                                                                    Profit Margin                   Risk Assessment Model?
                                                                    Score: 20
                                                                                                    Glyphosate Risk Assessment Model mainly equips with Analytic Hierarchy
                                                                    Planting of GM Crops            Process (AHP) to evaluate the whole Chinese glyphosate industry. The evaluation
     Glyphosate                                                     Score: 80                       is divided into three layers, namely, overall layer (target layer), intermediate layer
     technical                                                                                      (criterion layer) and base layer (indicator layer or index layer). The selection and
     in China in                                                                                    classification of different indices are strictly compulsory for the AHP method.
                                    Demand                          Antidumping
     2010                           Score: 64                       Score: 100
                                                                                                    Scores in upper layer are computed by indices in sub layer and their weights.
     Score: 48                                                                                      A=B1*WB1+B2*WB2+…Bi*WBi
                                                                    Overcapacity Ratio              A means the score in upper layer, Bi means the score in sub layer, and WBi
                                                                    Score: 45                       means weight of index Bi to A, which is computed by Delphi Matrix (important
                                                                                                    comparison of indices in a subgroup).

                                                                    Export Dependence               The score of different indices in the base layer is computed by the following steps:
                                                                    Score: 25                       Step 1:
                                                                                                    Indentify the index types: Beneficial types (high value indicates low risk) or
                                    Export                                                          adverse type (high value indicates high risk).
                                                                    Export Growth
                                    Score: 39                       Score: 39
                                                                                                    Step 2:
                                                                                                    Set up the criterion value for each index: High threshold (Hi) and low threshold
                                                                    Formulation Export              (Li). The criterion is based on CCM International’s intelligence and result of
                                                                    Score: 46                       expert consultation.

                                                                                                    Step 3:
                                    Competitor                      Glyphosate Competitors          Compute scores of indices (Si) by the following formula in light of their indices
                                    Score: 90                       Score: 90                       type:


                                                                                                     Beneficial type index:                    Adverse type index:
                                    Raw Material                    Raw Materials Supply
                                    Score: 100                      Score: 100                                100                                     100                      
                                                                                                                                Xi ≥ Hi                              Xi ≤ Li 
                                                                                                     si = 100 × Xi − Li
                                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                              Li < Xi < Hi    si = 100 × Hi − Xi
                                                                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                     Li < Xi < Hi 
                                                                                                                Hi − Li                                   Hi − Li
    Note         High Risk in Red           Middle Risk in Yellow               Low Risk in Green                                Xi ≤ Li                              Xi ≥ Hi 
                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                0                         
                                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                          0                      
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