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The Climate Service Annual Operating Plan Delivery

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The Climate Service Annual Operating Plan Delivery Powered By Docstoc
					NCEP Contributions to
NOAA Climate Services


   Dr. Wayne Higgins, Director
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP



       December 7, 2010
                    Outline

• A Climate Service in NOAA

• NWS Collaborating on Climate Services

• NCEP Contributions to Climate Services
A Climate Service in NOAA
        NATI O NAL O CEAN I C AN D ATM O S PH ER I C ADM I NI STRATI O N



     The Rising Demand for Climate Services




 Commerce                Coasts                Recreation              Ecosystems




Hydropower              Farming               Wind Energy             Private Sector


                                                                                       4
                    NATI O NAL O CEAN I C AN D ATM O S PH ER I C ADM I NI STRATI O N


                        February 8th 2010 DOC – NOAA
                               Announcement
      •     “…NOAA’s intent to establish a new office called the (NOAA) Climate Service. This
            would create a single office for climate science and service bringing together the
            climate assets and capabilities that are currently dispersed in multiple units across
            the agency.”

      •     “We are announcing the intent to reorganize existing assets to make NOAA’s
            Climate Services more responsive to the needs of those who use our services. While
            additional funds will be needed to increase NOAA’s core climate capabilities going
            forward to meet growing demands, the proposed reorganization is independent of
            new resources.”

      •     “The proposed reorganization would retain the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric
            Research recognizing the unique importance of a dedicated science and research
            enterprise with in NOAA.”

      - Joint press conference with Secretary Gary Locke and Under Secretary Jane Lubchenco
                          http://www.noaa.gov/climate.html
9/17/2010                                                                                           5
NATI O NAL O CEAN I C AN D ATM O S PH ER I C ADM I NI STRATI O N


                Proposed
            NOAA Climate Service




                                                                   6
NATI O NAL O CEAN I C AN D ATM O S PH ER I C ADM I NI STRATI O N



   NAPA Proposal for NCS         Under Secretary of Commerce for
                                   for Oceans and Atmosphere



                                                                                    Chief Scientist
                          Assistant Administrator for Climate Service

                                  Deputy Assistant Administrator
                                                                                  DAA for Transition
                                                                                    and Change
                                                                                    Management
                                                      Office of Policy and
                      Office of Management
                                                     Strategic Partnerships
                             (Director)
                                                           (Director)



            Office of Research          Office of Data and           Office of Service
              and Modeling                 Information              Design and Delivery
                 (Director)             Products (Director)              (Director)



                                             Data and
      Physical          Observations                          Predictions         Service Design
                                            Information
    Sciences Lab          Division                             Division              Division
                                             Products
       (Chief)            (Chief)              (Chief)          (Chief)               (Chief)

                           Global
      Chemical            Monitoring                                              Service Delivery
    Sciences Lab            Lab                                                       Division
       (Chief)                                                                        (Chief)
                         CPO Ocean
                          Observing
                          Systems
                                             National
  Geophysical Fluid                                                                Grants and
                          Integrated         Climatic
   Dynamics Lab                                                                  Contracts Division
                            Ocean           Data Center
      (Chief)                                                   Climate               (Chief)
                          Observing
                                                               Prediction
                            System           National
                                                                Center
                           Program           Oceano-
                                              graphic
                                                              Long-term
                           Tropical         Data Center
                                                              Prediction
                         Atmosphere
                                                               Center
                         Ocean Array          National
                                            Geophysical
                        Modernization       Data Center
                        of the Hourly
                        Precipitation
                        Rain Gauges

                          Historical
                         Climatology
                          Network
                        Modernization                                                                  7
                    NATI O NAL O CEAN I C AN D ATM O S PH ER I C ADM I NI STRATI O N



                    Climate Service Vision and Mission
      Vision
         By providing science and services, the Climate Service envisions an
         informed society capable of anticipating and responding to climate and its
         impacts.
      Mission
         Improve understanding and prediction of changes in climate and promote
         a climate-resilient society by:
             – Monitoring climate trends, conducting research, and developing models to strengthen
               our knowledge of the changing climate and its impacts on our physical, economic, and
               societal systems
             – Providing authoritative and timely information products and services about climate
               change, climate variability, and impacts
             – Informing decision-making and management at the local, state, regional, national, and
               international levels
            The Climate Service delivers products and services in collaboration with
            public, private, and academic partners to maximize social, economic, and
            environmental benefits.
9/20/2010                                                                                              8
National Weather Service:
Collaborating on Climate Services




                                    9
Goals/Objective

   Support CS vision/mission
   Key challenges:
       Climate/Weather linkage for short term
        predictions
       Production of climate information to meet
        national, regional and local needs
       User engagement
           User requirements and service delivery
           Preparedness vs Adaptation
       Training/education of workforce
                                                     10
Climate
Responsibilities of
NWS and CS


  Personal Action Dominates                                                                                  Societal Action Dominates
  High Freq of Information                                                                                   Low Freq of Information
  Short Lifetime of Product                                                                                  Long Lifetime of Product
NWS Climate Responsibilities                    Shared Strategic Challenges                     CS
Deliver climate prediction, monitoring , and
                                                Improved    understanding and ability to       Provide assessment services and
assessment products and services to support
                                                simulate and predict the relationship between   projections, and research to improve
response and preparedness , including related
                                                climate variation and extreme events            predictions and projections
applied research and modeling to improve
capabilities
                                                NWS      monitoring and assessment of          Mission: More long term adaptation and
Understand  and predict the influences of      variability will provide information to CS      mitigation related (e.g. Are floods affecting a
climate on weather events to deliver            assessments of decadal climate change           community more frequently? Are they more
seamless prediction                                                                             intense? What actions can be taken?)
                                                CS  assessments of climate change forcing of
Mission:  More short-term response and
                                                variability will provide information to NWS     CS also addresses mitigation of climate
preparedness (i.e. non permanent actions to
                                                predictions                                     change, a distinct difference between NCS and
respond to and prepare for infrequent threats
                                                                                                NWS
such as, floods, hurricanes, El Niño).
Early warning; more accurate information;
less uncertainty
NCEP Contributions to
  Climate Services
                 NCEP Contributions to
             Implement The Climate Service
• FY11 Priority Areas
   –   Science
   –   Predictions and Projections
   –   Observations
   –   Data
   –   Monitoring
   –   Science and Services
   –   Partnerships
   –   Regional
   –   Communication
   –   Assessments
   –   Attribution

• Focus on Execution
   –   NCEP FY11 AOP activities
   –   Integration/ Redirection

• NCEP FY11 Headlines
   –   Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2 and CFSRR)
   –   Multi Model Ensemble (CSF+EUROSIP)
   –   Climate Monitoring & Climate Portal
                                                   14
CS Core Capabilities Address
Societal Challenges
• FY11 Initiatives of Strategic Importance to the CS
   – NOAA Climate Monitoring
   – Sea Level Prediction System
• FY11 Transition Activities
   – Reanalysis and Reforecasts
   – Water Cycle
   – International Delivery of CFS (India, China, COLA, ..)
• FY11 Activities to Sustain Climate Operations
   – Climate Prediction Products and Services
   – Capacity Building (Food Security, Health Vectors, Training)

                                                                   16
       NOAA Climate Monitoring- 1
• Outcomes (Long-Term)
   – Enhance coordination of climate monitoring activities across NOAA,
      including overlaps and gaps, key indices, users and outreach
   – Enhance NOAA Climate Portal
• Deliverables (FY11)
   – Climate Monitoring Summit, report, inventory, definition
   – Enhanced climate monitoring products (atm., ocean, surface)
• Milestones (selected)
   – Lead Climate Monitoring Summit (Q1FY11)
   – Complete CMS Report, including inventory, and monitoring definition
      (Q2FY11)
   – Provide support for the expansion of the NOAA Climate Portal (Q1-
      Q4FY11)
• Performance Measures
   – Number of climate monitoring tools developed to address gaps
                              Predecisional: not for distribution or       17
                                                         attribution
NOAA Climate Services Portal
       www.climate.gov



                   • One-stop access for
                     NOAA’s climate
                     information
                   • Multiple audiences so
                     multiple avenues to
                     access information
                      –   ClimateWatch Magazine
                      –   Data and Services
                      –   Understanding Climate
                      –   Education
              18
                      –   Climate Dashboard
     Sea Level Prediction System - 1
• Outcomes (Long-Term)
   – A Sea Level Prediction System that provides decision makers with
      data and information to assess and understand vulnerabilities to
      coastal hazards and a changing climate
• Deliverables (FY11)
   – Demonstrable progress towards seamless sea level modeling
      prediction system
• Milestones
   – NOS: Needs assessment for global to local SL change prediction
      system (Q4)
   – NCEP: Investigate feasibility for seasonal sea-level forecasts with
      CFS* (Q4FY11)




                                                                   Predecisional: not for
                                                                                       19
                                                              distribution or attribution
                    Transition Activities -1
• Outcomes (Long-Term)
    – Reanalysis and Reforecast: CFS initialization, calibration, prediction, monitoring
    – Water Cycle: CFS land model for biogeochemical cycles / ecosystem modeling
    – International: Improve CFS with partners (China, India, COLA, etc.)
• Deliverables (FY11)
    – Initiate CFSv2 Lite Reanalysis Project
    – Extend NOAH land model in CFSv2 for global streamflow prediction
    – Support Delivery of CFSv2 to India
• Milestones (selected)
   – Initiate production of CFSv2 Lite Reanalysis (1948-present) (Q2FY11)
   – Transition NLDAS code for global streamflow prediction (Q4FY11)
   – Support International Delivery of CFS to India (Q3FY11)
• Performance Measures
   – Cumulative number of years of past and present climate data reanalyzed
      based on CFSv2


                                                                                Predecisional: not for
                                                                                                    20
                                                                           distribution or attribution
           Sustain Climate Operations- 1
• Outcomes (Long-Term)
    – Deliver operational climate prediction products and services
    – Connect climate variability (e.g. ENSO) to extremes and develop new outlook products
      (e.g. heat & cold waves; floods and droughts; etc.)
• Deliverables (FY11)
    – Improved statistical and dynamical forecast models
    – Operational climate outlooks (e.g. Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlooks; US P&T)
• Milestones
   – Climate Prediction Products and Services (selected)
        • Develop & test a seasonal MME forecast tool that combines CFS & EUROSIP (Q4FY11)
        • Understand causes for improved MJO prediction skill in CFSv2 to guide CFSv3 (Q3FY11)
        • Issue and update the 2011 Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasonal Outlooks (Q3FY11)
    – Capacity Building
        • Establish International Monsoon Forecaster Training Desk (Q3FY11)
        • Host / train at least 16 visitors per year through NCEP International Desks (Q4FY11)
• Performance Measures
   – U.S. Seasonal Temperature Forecasts

                                                                                 Predecisional: not for
                                                                                                     21
                                                                            distribution or attribution
       Extras




Predecisional: not for distribution or
                                         22
            attribution
      Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade
                        for Q1FY11
     Attribute            Operational Configuration                Q1FY11 Configuration
Analysis Resolution                    200 km                                 38 km
Atmosphere model               1995: 200 km/28 levels                   100 km/64 levels
                               Humidity based clouds                      Variable CO2
                                                                     AER SW & LW radiation
                                                                 Prognostic clouds & liquid water
                                                                   Retuned mountain blocking
                                                                  Convective gravity wave drag
Ocean model                       MOM-3: 60N-65S                        MOM-4 fully global
                                    1/3 x 1 deg.                           ¼ x ½ deg.
                                 Assim depth 750 m                     Assim depth 4737 m
Land surface model                 2-level LSM                        4 level Noah model
(LSM) and assimilation      No separate land data assim            GLDAS driven by obs precip
Sea ice                             Climatology                Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice

Coupling                                Daily                               30 minutes
Data assimilation        Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis,     Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI,
                               uncoupled background                   coupled background
Reforecasts                  15/month seasonal output
                                               23                     25/month (seasonal)
                                                                      124/month (week 3-6)
              Include Impacts of Changing Climate In
                  Weather and Seasonal Forecasts
• Investigation of ISI-Decadal linkages
      – CFS capability to recreate decadal temperature trend

         Observed
         temperature trend
OBS
         Coupled
         atmosphere-ocean
CTRL     50 year run with
         constant CO2
         Observed CO2 and
         aerosols in both
CO2      troposphere and
         stratosphere




                                                               24
Comparison of Predictive Skill for CFS V2 vs CFS V1
     For MJO Principle Components 1 and 2




  CFSv1 & CFSv2 PC1 & PC2