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pre Bali ppt Range of reductions for Annex

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pre Bali ppt Range of reductions for Annex

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									CLIMATE CHANGE STAKEHOLDER
       CONSULTATIONS

    Post-2012 Negotiations

     29 OCTOBER 2007
BOGOR : Some progress?
 Summitry showing results
 Elements of Bali roadmap clear
 Linkage of Kyoto Protocol and
    Convention “tracks” inevitable
 Idea of a long-term global goal
  More openness over developing
    country “contributions”


                                     2
BALI ROAD MAP for post 2012
agreement
• Four core issues: mitigation,
  adaptation, technology, finance
• Plus others: deforestation, impact of
  response measures, SD PAMs
  (sustainable development policies and
  measures), carbon markets
• Recognition of non UNFCCC
  processes?

                                          3
Questions
• Elements of the road map?
• 2009 end date?
• A single negotiation or two tracks –
  Kyoto and Convention?
• If two, what linkages/conditionalities?
• Input from non UNFCCC processes?
  (G8, MEM, APEC etc)


                                            4
Ad-hoc Working Group
(AWG)
AWG: work programme
(a) Analysis of mitigation potentials and
  ranges of emission reduction
  objectives of Annex 1 Parties
(b) Analysis of possible means to
  achieve mitigation objectives




                                            6
AWG: work programme (c)
• Scale of emission reductions to be
  achieved by Annex 1 Parties in
  aggregate and
• allocation of the corresponding
  mitigation effort, and
• agreement on their further
  commitments


                                       7
AWG: Indicative range for Annex 1
in aggregate
• 25 – 40% below 1990 (by 2020) may
  be discussed at Bali
• Iteration between (a), (b) and (c) of
  work programme




                                          8
AWG: The Science (1)
• IPCC AR4
• To avoid some of the most extreme
  impacts of climate change, increase in
  global mean temperature needs to be
  limited to no more than 2 – 3 deg C
• This requires stabilisation below about
  560 ppm CO2e


                                            9
AWG: The Science (2)
• 80% chance of staying below 3 deg C
  if GHG concentrations are stabilised at
  less than 445ppm CO2e
• But with stabilisation at 560 ppm
  CO2e, there is a 50% chance of
  exceeding 3 deg C



                                            10
AWG: The Science (3)
To achieve stabilisation at 445-490ppm
  CO2e would require that by 2020:
• Emissions from Annex 1 as a whole
  were 25 – 40% below 1990 levels, and
• There was substantial deviation from
  baseline for emissions in LA, ME, EA
  and Centrally-planned Asia.


                                         11
AWG: Matters being considered by
the Govt (1)

• What does the science suggest that
  the range should be?




                                       12
AWG: Matters being considered by
the Govt (2)
Not necessary that all Annex 1 Parties‟
  commitments are within the indicative
  range
• Comparable effort and equitable
  burden sharing
• Easier/harder for New Zealand than
  other Annex 1 countries?


                                          13
AWG: Matters being considered by
the Govt (3)

• Implications of extent of participation
  and extent of coverage eg. avoided
  deforestation, bunker fuels, ….
• Possible range for international
  Carbon price



                                            14
AWG: Matters being considered by
the Govt (4)
Cost to New Zealand
• Implications of possible changes to
  LULUCF rules
• Level of sequestration in Kyoto forests
  around 2020, 2030
• Length of commitment period



                                            15
AWG: Matters being considered by
the Govt (5)

• Direct cost to New Zealand
  businesses/households, upper bound:
  commitment x international Carbon
  price
• Impact on national economic welfare
  (NZ commitment, international Carbon
  price, trade effects, …..)

                                         16
AWG: Possible conditions that could
be attached to New Zealand support
for a particular indicative range (1)
Generic
• Very high probability that the final
  package will achieve stabilisation at
  the target concentration ie. sufficient
  coverage of emissions – activities and
  countries – with sufficient commitment
  to sufficient reductions

                                            17
AWG: Possible conditions that could
be attached to New Zealand support
for a particular indicative range (2)
Or specific
• Inclusion of as many activities as
  possible
• Participation of all Annex 1 Parties
• Flexibility mechanisms are available
• Annex 1 mitigation via flex. mechs. is
  additional to “substantial deviation ….”
                                             18
AWG: Possible conditions that could
be attached to New Zealand support
for a particular indicative range (3)
• Effects of changes to LULUCF rules
  taken into account
• Indirect trade effects taken into
  account
• Fair burden sharing



                                        19
Other Issues: Russian Proposal
• streamlining inclusion into Annex I
• Convention voluntary commitments
New Zealand position
• supports new agenda item/s for these
  issues
• joining Annex I should be simple; tacit
  acceptance
• Voluntary commitments one of elements in
  post-2012 considerations
                                             20
Other issues: Kyoto Protocol
2nd Review
• 2nd Review at CMP4; Bali = scope and content
• 1st Review inadequate; link to AWG and post-2012
New Zealand position
• Basis = best science & other information
• Process: prepare during 2008; distinct, clear, time-
  defined; links to other processes
• Scope: LULUCF rules, streamlining A1 inclusion,
  CDM, nature of commitments (type, length)

                                                     21
Other Issues: Avoided
Deforestation (1)
• SBSTA 27 agenda item 5: Reducing
  emissions from deforestation in developing
  countries: approaches to stimulate action
• Emissions from deforestation are roughly
  20% of global emissions.
• Widely recognised as a major area to be
  addressed in any future global climate
  change action


                                               22
Avoided Deforestation (2)
•   Process to date
    – In March 2007, Australia and New Zealand co-hosted/funded
        the second workshop on this issue in Cairns, Australia.
    – At SBSTA 26 a conclusion could not reached. The draft decision
        will continue to be negotiated at SBSTA 27 (Bali).
    – SBSTA 26 invited Parties to make submissions.
•   Key issues of debate
    – Scope
    – Fund
    – Market based
•   Other issues
    – Baselines (local, regional, national), additionality, permanence,
        leakage, monitoring.


                                                                          23
Avoided Deforestation (3)
•   NZ‟s position

    –   Action is needed

    –   Mechanism requires sufficient money to address issue

    –   As such fund idea has weaknesses

    –   Technical issues can be addressed

    –   How does this „fit into‟ the wider processes?

    –   What implications for emissions reductions targets?

•   Possible outcomes from Bali


                                                               24
Agriculture: International leadership

• NZ Government investing $1M p.a. on
  international collaboration on agriculture
  and forestry climate change research

• Major first step is establishment of Livestock
  Emissions and Abatement Research
  Network (LEARN)

                                                   25
Agriculture: LEARN
• NZ establishing website for LEARN
• Proposed that NZ act as administrator of
  LEARN
• Exploring possible research secondment
  programme
• Will look to co-host and sponsor future
  activities under LEARN – workshops,
  conferences, exchanges


                                             26
Agriculture: Next steps
• GGAA3 – conference to be held in NZ in November
  this year
• NZ sponsoring attendance of developing countries
  at GGAA3 and inaugural LEARN meeting
  – At least 20 countries will attend LEARN meeting
      including: Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India,
      Peru, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Mexico,
      Canada, Ireland, UK, Switzerland, Ukraine,
      France, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand



                                                           27
Agriculture: Bali
• Presentation on Non-CO2 ghgs in
  Subsidiary Body for Scientific and
  Technological Advice (SBSTA)
• Advertise LEARN and associated activities
• Continue to engage with Parties on
  agriculture




                                              28

								
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