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									Preface
                                                                             Chasing shadows. …
If you are not superstitious go to Chapter II.                          Seeing things. What you saw…
Chapter I                                                                   was your own reflection,
Gambler Thinking
                                                                             staring back at you, …
by Thomas McClure
                                                                         the multitudinous faces of time
       A Noir Detective Story: a gambler lost in thought
                                                                          ticking away in the shadowy
             "...you found yourself wading through
                                                                             background.‖ (p. 125)
                 pools of bottomless shadow,                        ―You were trying to fit the bits together,
                 buffeted by drifting wisps of
                                                                         but they were invisible bits –
                 cold emblematic fog. (p.107)
                                                                   it was like trying to work a jigsaw puzzle
...you did feel your own mortality blowing foglike through the
                          night...."                                      without the pieces.‖ (p. 134)
  "Time passes, nothing stays the same; a sad thing." (p. 25)
  "It was more like an imageless dream .... Almost imageless.      ―It’s like being trapped in two dimensions,

   You were being dragged through an old film projector. ...                cut off from overviews.

          Your sprocket holes were catching, tearing.                 Nothing achievable from down here,
            Your head was caught in the mechanism.               but maybe you can get an underview.‖ (p. 146)
                       Fade out." (p. 42)
                                                                     ―Today is already yesterday.‖ (p. 168)
                     ―The movie you’re in.




                                                                                                                 1
                    [R. Coover. Noir, c.2010]                        appear in two laws, seems obvious. Dr. Hieronimus says that
                                                                     "These three theories (seriality, [synchronicity, and similars] )
                                                                     are an attempt to understand [(2)] luck, [(3)] chance, and [(1)]
I      Introduction                                                  coincidence."[brackets mine] [He has himself reversed (1) and
                                                                     (3); he sees coincidence in time (1) and chance (3) as
This paper is written to examine gambler thinking about (1)
                                                                     numbers.] By utilizing all of these laws ... you will ... improve
coincidence, (2) luck and (3) chance. (p. xi)
                                                                     your chances of winning. [with numbers] (p. x) "...odds more
[R. Hieronimus. How to pick your personal lottery numbers,           in your favor."
paper, c. 1985.] Dr. Hieronimus called them
                                                                     To say Dr. Hieronimus is gambler thinking says that he seeks
(1) Law of Synchronicity: meaning coincidences or                    to use theories "to pick your personal lottery numbers", by
synchronized events in time; "simultaneous occurrence of two         looking in USA Today, sports section, for the daily lotteries.
meaningful but causally unconnected events, or a coincidence         (p. viii) [combinations of three- and four-digit numbers] He
in time of two or more causally unrelated events having the          plays numbers in straight and boxed form. That is, exact order
same or similar meaning." [Carl Jung, 1875-1961] "Examples           and any order. His method is to decode word letters into
of synchronicity include ... dreams ... and series of numbers."*     numbers, and adding.
[Underline mine.]
                                                                     "This system can be applied, seasonally, to any sport,
(2) Law of Seriality: meaning "... coincidences - singular or in     FOOTBALL, BASEBALL ... tied to any geographical
a series - are manifestations ... independently of a physical        location***, ... derived from locations, that are periodically the
cause." " ...acts on forms and functions to bring similar            center of media events, such as elections.... Media events ...
structures together in space and time." (p. xi) [P. Kammerer]        bring greater human interest and focus the thoughts and
"He also theorized that there is a causal principle ... that tends   emotions of millions. ...thought as well as...attention affects
toward unity."... unforeseen good fortune."                          which numbers.... explain extraordinary relationship.... (p. 3)

(3) Law of Similars: meaning "... things that were identical in      *"...the dream is not a kind of standardized cryptogram that can
design but different in size or magnitude....‖ (p. xii)              be decoded by a glossary of symbol meanings." (p. viii)
"Sympathies were ... bonds uniting similars. They consisted of
... designs ... numbers...."                                         "I was not describing a piece of magic...." "The dreaming of
                                                                     dreams is not a matter ... as simply a matter of chance."
That these three laws are interwoven, where similar words




                                                                                                                                         2
[C. G. Jung. Man and his symbols, introduction by J. Freeman,      In this case we have nine values of m that map to the same
paper, c.1964] "In dreams, symbols occur spontaneously, for        value of c
dreams happen and are not invented...."But symbols ... do not
occur solely in dreams." (p. 41)                                   - these are known as unconcealed messages.

II     Gambling thinking as counting or adding numbers.            m = 0, 1 and n-1 will always do this for any n, no matter how
                                                                   large**. [See chapters six and twelve in Dr. Hieronimus]
Simply gambling thinking counts or adds numbers to get
digited numbers in both straight-boxed form to play on chance      If we wanted to use this system to keep secrets, we could let
events .                                                           A=2, B=3, ..., Z=27. [Latin Alphabet: A=1, B=2,...,Z=26]

A gambler thinking like an adder in a computer is in my mind's     **(We specifically avoid 0 and 1 here for the reason given
image. Now how to program that gambler thinking in an adder.       above).

Suppose we look at RSA encryption of a message to see it           Thus the plaintext message "HELLOWORLD" would be
thinking like a gambler.                                           represented by the set of integers m1 , m2 , ...
http://www.di-mgt.com.au/rsa_alg.html#realexample                  (9,6,13,13,16,24,16,19,13,5)[Latin Alphabet E=5]
                                                                   Using our table above, we obtain ciphertext integers c1 , c2 , ...
M (ansi):       Hello world!
M (hex):        48656C6C6F20776F726C6421                           (3,18,19,19,4,30,4,28,19,26)[Latin Alphabet E=26]
CT:             486611 7CDA08 F3E93B 392306 85BC02...              Note that this example is no more secure than using
Now if we calculate the ciphertext c for all the possible values
of m (0 to 32), we get                                             a simple Caesar substitution cipher, but it serves to illustrate
m 0    1    2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 10 11 12 13 14 15        a simple example of the mechanics of RSA encryption.
16
c 0    1    8 27 31 26 18 13 17         3 10 11 12 19    5   9     III     Reworked Example
4

m 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
                                                                   For 'Hello world!' transpose the simple example into (hex)
c 29 24 28 14 21 22 23 30 16 20 15 7 2 6 25 32                     characters
                                                                   M (ansi):     Hello world!
Note that all 33 values of m (0 to 32) map to a unique code c in
the same range in a sort of random manner.                         M (hex):      48656C6C6F20776F726C6421
                                                                                (9,6,13,13,16,24,16,19,13,5) [Latin




                                                                                                                                        3
Alphabet E=5]                                                                  E='5', the numeric equivalent of the letter 'e', to get the sum E='6',
                                                                               the RSA encryption value from the lookup table. Likewise,
The ciphertext can be transformed to ascii by
                                                                               he will map out the remainder of the letters in 'Hello world!'. He now
           (3,18,19,19,4,30,4,28,19,26)[Latin                                  has a ciphertext of his [plaintext, done by adding '1' each value]
Alphabet E=26]
                                                                               Our task is to create a two-bit adder to add '1' to the Latin Alphabet
CT:             486611 7CDA08 F3E93B 392306 85BC02...
                                                                               {A=1, B=2,...,Z=26} in mod 3 {A=1 mod 3, B=2 mod 3, C=3 mod 3=0
IV       Finding the modulus                                                   mod 3,...,Z=2 mod 3}. Taking pairs of similar values: '0 '+'0"=0;
                                                                               '1'+'1'='2'; '2'+'2'= 1 mod 3. Taking pairs of dissimilar values:
                                                                               '0'+'1'='1'; '0'+'2'= '2'; '1'+'2'='3'= '0' mod 3. There are three ways to get
                                                                               '0' ; three ways to get '1'; and three ways to get '2'. [double unlike
M (ansi):       Hello world!                                                   pairs, by reversing order of addition.] Hence, it equally like to get any
M (hex):        48656C6C6F20776F726C6421                                       value by adding any two pairs, '0' '1' '2'. The adder is two -bit because
CT:             486611 7CDA08 F3E93B 392306 85BC02...                          '3' is '11' in binary, and '2' is '10' and '1' is '01'. Since '3' is always '00',
PT (hex) :      48656C 6C6F20 776F72 6C6421                                    then '2' is '1' SHIFT ONE BIT LEFT and '1' is '2' SHIFT ONE BIT
Delta:          0001   10 18           411B                                    RIGHT. This is like multiplication '1'*'2'='2' and division '2'*'1'/ '2' ='1'
PT (ansi):      Hello world!
                                                                               or '2'*'2'^-'1'='1'. Since '2'^'2'='1' is the same as '2'+ '2'='1' or '2'*'2'= '1',
                                                                               then '2'*'2'^-'1'='1' equals '2'*'2'^''2' and -'1' = '2', than is, - means
Notice that 'l' is' 6C' in P T (hex) [plaintext] and the delta is '10' (hex)   SHIFT LEFT. Hence, minus sign means SHIFT.
meaning '16' (dec).
Differences, delta, are x mod 16 (dec) ; 1 mod 3 , so x=1. Look at             For example, any gambler knows that two dice wit h '1' to '6' add
other '6C':                                                                    together to produce '2', '3', '4', '5', '6', '7', etc. In mod 3, '1' to '0' add
11-6C= 5B (hex ); 91 (dec ); 1 mod 3; 39-6C=33 (hex); 51 (dec) y= 0            together to produce '2', '0', '1', '2', '0', '1', etc. The likelihood is '2', '2',
mod 3;                                                                         '4', '4', '6', '6', etc. but in mod 3 is equally likely.
so x=1, y=0 mod 3 so e=3. The exponent is e=3. That is, the
modulus= 3, because

the difference bet ween P T and CT is a factor of 3 for eac h character
being compared.
                                                                               VI       Conclusion
V        Gambler Thinking
                                                                               Thinking like a gambler is thinking like a adder in a computer. It is not
What does this mean for thinking like a gambler? Using the Latin               like a dream. It is like a cryptogram wit h decoding numbers.
Alphabet A=1, B=2, ..., E=5,
                                                                               It is not magic. It is a matter of chance. Take a random chanc e at
the second character, 'e' in Hello, E='6' is E='5' plus '1'. If the            creating a password : Pass1 Word1! like Hello World! or Hell0 Wrld0!
gambler thinks like an adder in a computer, he will add '1' to                 Write the password in LA Latin Alphabet or AB Alphabet and convert




                                                                                                                                                                    4
to a message, m, in plaintext and c, in ciphertext. RSA.

Notice as a check there is no differenc e betwee n PT plaintext and
CT ciphertext in modulo 3 or mod 3 or m3. Use a program to convert
between P T and CT in MACRO ASSEMBLY. Take data in a stream
with BIT TORRENT with a password (12 digit) in first place
ciphertext. Encrypt the data with the passphrase in another
encryption like AES, 3DES, BLOWFISH, or TWOFISH.

Appendix

Location***

"How to find your LOTTO number.

The first four lotto numbers are directly chosen from longitude and
latitude coordinates, while the remaining two ... are found by adding
or reversing combinations of longit ude and latitude. Numbers over 40
... are made into smaller numbers by reversing or adding.

Example: When you revers e 72, it becomes 27; add 68 to get
6+8=14; and add again to get 1+4=5. If you obt ain a duplicate of any
number, reverse or add them again to/obtain a different number.
(Duplicates numbers are not allowed.) If you still get duplicate
numbers, omit this number. (pp. 1-2)

Example: ... So you select the longitude and latitude of Dallas....
They are 96 47 32 47. Since the first two numbers are over 40, we
add them together to obtain a smaller number 9+6=14; 4+7=11. To
make the fourth number, another 47, different from the second
number, we add it together twice, 4+7=11, 1+1= 2. So your first four
numbers are 15, 11, 32, 02.




                                                                        5
                                                                     BASEBALL Baltimore is longitude latitude 76 37 39
                                                                     19 and LOTTO numbers 13, 37, 39, 19, 14, 22.
To obtain the fifth and sixth digits, simply add the longitude and
                                                                     Plaintext to Ciphertext
latitude results together, 15+11=26; 32+ 02=34. Remember any you
get a number which exceeds 40, simply add the single numbers
together to get a lower number." (p. 2)                              Now if we calculate the ciphertext c for all the possible values
                                                                     of m (0 to 32), we get
Making LOTTO numbers from birth and death dat es:
                                                                     LA          A       B       C       D       E       F       G       H       I   J   K   L M       N   O
Benjamin Franklin. Born 1/ 27/1706. Died 4/ 17/1790. LOTTO number:   P
17, 04, 24, 21, 10, 22.                                              lAB                 A       B       C       D       E       F       G       H   I   J   K     L M     N
(p. 15) Take death date: 4/17 and reverse: 17 04. Take birth date:   O
add 1 to 17+06= 24; add 17+04=21; add 06+04= 10; add 21+01=22.       m 0         1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9 10 11 12 13 14 15
                                                                     16
LOTTO numbers are from longitude and latitude in the same way as     c 0         1       8 27 31 26 18 13 17                                     3 10 11 12 19         5   9
birth and death dates.                                               4
(pp. 83-88) Coordinates of most major American cities.

FOOTBALL (pp. 5-7) NFL cities coordinates and LOTTO numbers;         LA Q R S T U V W X Y Z - + 0 1 2 3
                                                                     4 5 6 7 8 9 _
Atlanta is longitude and latitude 84 23 33 40 and LOTTO number 12,   lAB P Q R S T U V W X Y Z - + 0               1 2
23, 33,10, 07 (p. 5)                                                 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 _
                                                                     m 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
(p. 8) US FL cities coordinates and LOTTO numbers.                   33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
                                                                     c 29 24 28 14 21 22 23 30 16 20 15 7 2 6 25 32
BASEBALL (pp. 33-36)                                                 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1

Atlanta is longitude and latitude 84 23 33 40 and LOTTO number 12,   mod 3
23, 33,10, 107 [sic. error 07 correct] . (p. 33)
                                                                     m 0     1       2       0       1       2       0       1       2       0       1   2   0     1   2   0
A glossary of symbol meanings are the LOTTO numbers for              1
FOOTBALL and BASEBALL cities.
                                                                     m 2     0       1       2       0       1       2       0           1       2   0   1   2     0   1   2
Example
                                                                     c 0     1       2       0       1       2       0       1       2       0       1   2   0     1   2   0
FOOTBALL Dallas is longit ude and latitude 96 47 32 47 and LOTTO     1
number 15, 11, 32, 02, 26, 34 (p. 5) (p. 34)
                                                                     c 2     0       1       2       0       1       2       0           1       2   0   1   2     0   1   2




                                                                                                                                                                               6
Say we take the coordinates of Dallas and the        c   0    2 2 2      2 1
LOTTO number and compare with the TX LOTTO number,
which is TUE 10/26/10 15-21-30-31-32-26
Pass1 Word1!                                         MegaMillions
LA 2you1 runz3!
AB 1not0 many2!                                      TE XAS

LA O    U   1   2     3 Z
                                                     TUE 11/16/10     01-26-27-39-46-21
lAB N   T   0    1   2 Y

m 15 21 30 31 32 26 [AB N     T   0   1     2   Y]   FRI 11/12/10     09-26-28-35-38-10

c 9 21 6 25 32 20                                    TUE 11/09/10     08-26-28-33-53-11

m 0 0 0         1 2 2                                FRI 11/05/10     19-25-34-46-53-15

c   0 0 0        1 2 2                               TUE 11/02/10     01-03-12-16-54-46

Dallas, TX 96 47 32 47 longitude latitude            FRI 10/29/10     04-19-26-28-39-14
15, 11, 32, 02, 26, 34 LOTTO number                  TUE 10/26/10     15-21-30-31-32-26

Pass1 Word1!                                         FRI 10/22/10     02-07-18-32-53-18
LA work3 boyz5!                                      TUE 10/19/10     02-09-14-37-42-41
AB ne wj2 stay4!                                     Dallas, TX 96 47 32 47 longitude latitude
LA O    K   3   B    Z 5
                                                     15, 11, 32, 02, 26, 34 LOTTO number
lAB N   J   2   A    Y 4
                                                     differs from BOXED form (any order)
m 15 11 32 02 26 34
                                                     15-21-30-31-32-26
c 9 11 32 8 20 1
                                                     [15, 15 match;
m 0     2 2 2        2 1



                                                                                                 7
32 and 32 match;                                            Los Angeles, CA        120 40 03       40
26 and 26 match;                                            Dallas, TX              95 35 14       35
                                                                    +2     +1
11 and 21 partial match ;
                                                            Atlanta, GA             84 35 12       35
34 and 31 partial match.                                            +1
02 and 30 ordered partial match; ]                          Baltimore, MD           75 40 12       40
                                                                   +1    +1
MegaMillions States
                                                            New York City, NY       75 40 12       40
West to East,
South to North                                              Boston, MA              70 45 07       09

CA, TX, GA, (Los Angeles, San Francisco), Dallas, Atlanta   [Dallas, TX with the tightest state election, +2   +1, {gain
                                                            of +1 in 2010 over +1 2008}
IL, OH, VA Chicago, (Cincinnati, Cleveland), Washington
                                                            has the narrowest difference between location TX LOTTO
WA, MI, NY Seattle, Detroit, (Buffalo, New York City)       actual vs calculated.]

MD, NJ, MA Baltimore, (USFL New Jersey), Boston (New        Compare Dallas, TX with Atlanta, GA BOXED form (any
England)                                                    order)

Grids [Suppose in a mid-term election, like 2010,           Dallas, TX 96 47 32 47 longitude latitude

underlined are closest to LOTTO numbers.]                   15, 11, 32, 02, 26, 34 LOTTO number

[Seats net gain 2010 2008]                                  Atlanta, GA 84 23 33 46 longitude latitude

Seattle, WA           125 50 08      05                     12, 23, 33, 10, 35, 07 LOTTO number

San Francisco, CA     120 40 03      40                     [15 and 12 partial match;
                                                            11 (1+1=02) 23 added-digits ordered-digits partial match;



                                                                                                                           8
32 and 33 partial match;                                     added-digits partial match; then
02 and 10 ordered-digits partial match;                      Three matches is better than three partial matches; Dallas in
                                                             TX LOTTO is better than Atlanta.
34 (3+4=07) added-digits match;]
                                                             And matching Dallas compared to Atlanta is not as good as
Atlanta, GA 84 23 33 46 longitude latitude                   either TX LOTTO vs Dallas, or vs Atlanta.
12, 23, 33, 10, 35, 07 LOTTO number                          MORAL:
differs from BOXED form (any order)                          When betting in TX LOTTO chose Dallas, TX rather than
15-21-30-31-32-26                                            Atlanta, GA locations-derived LOTTO numbers.

[15 and 12 partial match;                                    When predicting elections by state, choose the twelve states
                                                             with MegaMillion LOTTO numbers matching Location
23 and 21 partial match;                                     LOTTO.

33 and 31 partial match;                                     The tightest state elections will be those with the narrowest
                                                             differences [most +1 gains from 2008 to 2010]
10 and 30 partial match;
                                                             between LOTTO number actual and calculated. [Dallas,
35 and 32 partial match;                                     TX; Atlanta, GA; Baltimore, MD in approximate Grids.]
26 (2+6 = 08) and 07 added-digits partial match;             Dallas TEXAS is narrowe r than Atlanta GEORGIA. [Afte r
                                                             next election in 2012, it is likely to look at 2014 races.]
Which is a better LOTTO number?
                                                             [Model is also predictive of mid-te rm elections 2014 (2012
Three matches, two partial matches and one ordered-digits    to 2014)]
partial match Dallas?
                                                             Randomizer
or five partial matches and one added-digits partial match
Atlanta ?                                                    To create Pass1 Word! by a random generator, pick four
                                                             letter words and add a number making five letter words
Taking away similar matches; two partial matches and one




                                                                                                                             9
Separate with space between two five letter words and         start:
terminate with an exclamation point!                          mov ah, 09h ; Display the message
Adde r                                                        lea dx, msg

Pass1 Word1!                                                  int 21h

LA work3 boyz5!                                               mov ax,4C00h ; Terminate the executable

AB ne wj2 stay4!                                              int 21h

                                                              end start
For example: To move from AB alphabet to LA Latin
alphabet,                                                     [Using the MOV
add one '1' to mod 3 of random number [Use Assembler          <http://wiki/MOV_ (x86_instruction)> instructions can use the
programs below.]                                              x86 registers. ]
('2' + '1') = ('3'='0' m3) ; (4'='l' m3)+ '1' =('5'='2' m3)   For example:

                                                              mov ax, 1234<http://wiki/Hexadecimal>

Assembler Program                                             mov bx, ax

"Hello world!" program for DOS in MASM style                  copies the value 1234h (4660d) into register AX and
assembly                                                      then copies the value of the AX register into the BX register.
.MODEL Small                                                  (Intel syntax)
.STACK 100h                                                   "2.6.3 Sample Macro
.DATA                                                         The following code defines a simple macro:
msg db 'Hello, world!$'
                                                              abc      macro
.CODE
                                                                       push    AX




                                                                                                                               10
@1:     mov     AX,?2
        call    ?1                                                lab2: push      AX
        jc      @1                                                @1:      mov    AX,0100h
        pop     AX                                                         call   subroutine2
        endm                                                               jc     @1
In this case two parameters are expected with each expansion --            pop    AX
the name of the subroutine and a value to be passed to it.        " (p. 47)
If the carry flag [jc] is set on return from the subroutine,
another call is made.
                                                                  subroutine1:
If this macro is expanded twice with the following lines:"
(p.46)                                                                   adc     al,i8 ; add with CF i b to AL (p.77) [jc
                                                                  jump near if carry (p.80)]
"lab1: abc      routine1,data
                                                                  subroutine2:
lab2: abc       routine2,0100h [; h, hexadecimal]
                                                                           add    al,i8   ; add i t to AL
the result would be:
                                                                  [J.E. Hendrix. Small Assembler: An 80x86 Macro Assembler
lab1: push      AX                                                Written in Small C, paper, c.1988.]
                                                                  MegaMillions
@1:     mov     AX,data
                                                                  TE XAS
        call    subroutine1

        jc      @1                                                TUE 11/16/10    01, 26, 27, 39, 46, 21

        pop     AX                                                FRI 11/12/10    09, 26, 28, 35, 38, 10




                                                                                                                             11
TUE 11/09/10     08, 26, 28, 33, 53, 11                     WA, MI, NY Seattle, Detroit, (Buffalo, New York City)

FRI 11/05/10     19, 25, 34, 46, 53, 15                     MD, NJ, MA Baltimore, (USFL New Jersey), Boston (New
                                                            England)
TUE 11/02/10     01, 03, 12, 16, 54, 46
FRI 10/29/10     04, 19, 26, 28, 39, 14
                                                            Compare Dallas, TX with Atlanta, GA
TUE 10/26/10     15, 21, 30, 31, 32, 26
                                                            Dallas, TX
FRI 10/22/10     02, 07, 18, 32, 53, 18
                                                            96 47 32 47 longitude latitude
TUE 10/19/10     02, 09, 14, 37, 42, 41
                                                            15, 11, 32, 02, 26, 34 LOTTO number

                                                            Atlanta, GA 84 23 33 46 longitude latitude (p. 5)
Dallas, TX 96 47 32 47 longitude latitude (p. 5)            FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL
                                                            12, 23, 33, 10, 35, 07 LOTTO number
15, 11, 32, 02, 26, 34 LOTTO number
                                                            19, 25, 35, 46, 53, 15 (4+6=10) (1+5=06)
15, 21, 30, 31, 32, 26
                                                            FRI 11/05/10   19, 25, 34, 46, 53, 15
TUE 10/26/10     15, 21, 30, 31, 32, 26
MegaMillions States
                                                            Compare
West to East,
                                                            Baltimore, MD
South to North
                                                            76 37 39 19 longitude latitude (p. 34) BASEBALL
CA, TX, GA, (Los Angeles, San Francisco), Dallas, Atlanta
                                                            13, 37, 39, 19, 14, 22 LOTTO number
IL, OH, VA Chicago, (Cincinnati, Cleveland), Washington
                                                            (3+7=10) (1+4=05)




                                                                                                                    12
15, 21, 30, 31, 32, 26
19, 25, 35, 46, 53, 15 (4+6=10)

TUE 10/26/10   15, 21, 30, 31, 32, 26
FRI 11/05/10   19, 25, 34, 46, 53, 15




                                        13
Garrood had about 10 months to create the algorithms for a          minus 117, which means that for every $117 you bet on the
computer system that could establish airtight betting lines and     Braves, you can win only $100. Though the score is tied at this
calculate odds on the fly. Garrood was tasked with gathering        moment, Midas believes that the Braves are a favorite to win.
the data and creating software that could calculate the in,         BASEBALL $117
running odds for an online sports, wagering operation. He           Then the pitch comes in-an 82, mph changeup- and Hinske
developed the algorithms, and an IT team turned them into           blasts it out of the park for a home run. Midas finds out about
code. In 2004, the UK site Cantor Spreadfair was launched. It       this a split second after the spectators at Turner Field. Cantor
was a peer, to, peer sports gambling site, allowing users to set    commissions several data processing services to send live game
their own bets, which would be taken by other players (or by        info directly to its control room; whichever feed arrives first is
Cantor). The site allowed for spread betting, a volatile form of    the one that Midas takes. It absorbs the new developments and
gambling in which the payoffs are based on how closely you          correlates them with similar events that have happened in the
predict the final point difference between two teams.               past. The money line dips to minus 327. Winning $100 on the
This year, Cantor was accepting bets on the outcome of NFL          Braves will now mean putting $327 at risk. A play later, when
games months before the season started. But Amaitis wishes he       the Braves’ Rick Ankiel grounds out, the process repeats itself,
could take more granular bets before kickoff. After all, more       and winning $100 on the Braves now requires a bet of $283.
opportunities to bet means more commissions for Cantor. He          BASEBALL $327 $283
dreams of being able to offer programmed sports betting that        It all happens in seconds, and Midas may well be crunching
will allow gamblers to put in bid orders, just as you would         the numbers for other games, in other sports, at the same time.
with an electronic stock purchase. Before the game begins,          After the day’s games are over, Cantor programmers scour the
you’ll be able to set your account so that a bet will               stats for mistakes or new correlations that could make Midas
automatically be placed if, for example, a team is ever a six,      stronger for the next day’s matchups. ―Every game is a new
point underdog. You’d also be able to set it up to place a bet on   market, ‖ Tara says.
the other side, say, if that number drops from six to four.
Once your bids are in, you won’t even have to watch the             In reality, Midas is 120, 000 lines of code, a piece of
game.                                                               predictive software that largely resides in a nondescript office
                                                                    building about 14 miles north of the M. It was here that the
To illustrate how it works, take an August game that pitted the     final step of Midas’ development was overseen by Cantor’s
Atlanta Braves against the San Francisco Giants. With the           CTO, Sunny Tara, who has since left to form his own
score tied 2, 2 in the bottom of the sixth, the Braves’ Eric        software company. Prior to joining Cantor Gaming, the
Hinske comes up to bat, and the money line on his team is           diminutive engineer had been the senior director of enterprise



                                                                                                                                    14
architecture and services at Harrah’s Entertainment, the largest    basketball.
gaming company in the world. At Cantor, he and his team of
about 15 took the statistical matrices Garrood created and made     Model of In-Running Odds
them into a fully functional piece of enterprise software.
                                                                    X = Odds deviation fro m median/range
 ―The computer gets the info, the algorithm churns millions of      Y = LOTTO nu mber mod 3
                                                                    C = Control state US House seat gain 2010; 2008
combinations of calculations, it feeds out a price, and that gets
displayed on the customer’s terminal in just a few milliseconds,    C = b1* X + u
‖ Tara says. ―It is very similar to a Wall Street model.‖           Y = b2* C

                                                                    2 = (-10/4)*(-8/ 10)
                                                                    2 = (1/1)*2
But the cornerstone of the operation is a piece of numbe r,
crunching software called Midas. It functions like the              b1=(-2.5)
                                                                    b2=1.0
predictive computer programs that Amaitis dealt with on Wall
Street: Midas acquires information, processes it, finds
mathematical patterns and correlations, and uses all of that to     Y                 C                 X               Yhat     delta
divine the ever, shifting odds of sporting events. The system is    2                 +2 +1             -.8             2        0
robust enough to handle the play, by, play…. During basketball      0                 +1                +.2             -1/2     -1/2
season, things move so quickly that the bettors at the M have       0                 +1 +1             +.0             0        0
about eight seconds to consider a wager before the odds
                                                                    Squared Correlation =
change.                                                             1 - (RMSE/ SUM ) = 1 - root [ (1/ 4)/3 ] /3 =
…like a daytrader than a traditional casino sports bettor,          1 - root[ 1/3] /(2*3) = 1 - root [3]/(6*3) =
                                                                    1 - (3/10)/ 3 = 1 - .1 = .9
moving in and out of positions on the fly, looking for hedges,
capitalizing on fleeting moments of inefficiency. And that is       Partial Correlat ion = b; 1= (1-b) * C + b/ C ;
not an accident. Since 2009, the sports book at the M has been      C = 1/C ; C*C=1; C=1 ; (1 - C) = b*(1/C - C); b=(1-C)/(1/C -C) = (1-2)/ (1/ 2
run by Cantor Gaming <http://www.cantorgaming.com/>, a              - 2) =
division of the Wall Street financial services outfit Cantor         -1/ (-3/2)=(2/ 3) PC= b=67;
                                                                    1 = (1/3)*2 + (2/ 3)/ 2 = 2/ 3 + 1/3 = 1
Fitzgerald <http://www.cantor.com/>. The resort’s new
bookmaker openly boasts that it’s bringing the pace and style       Squared Correlation
of Wall Street trading to betting on baseball, football, and        as percent of variance explained




                                                                                                                                               15
Partial Correlat ion
as game theory solution

ABSTRA CT
This paper introduces three innovations: (1) RSA stream cipher; (2) partial
correlation as game theory; and (3) a regression model o f three variables in
X, Y and C, control. The stream cipher calculates LOTTO nu mbers, which
correlate in mod 3 with seat changes in mid-term and presidential elections,
and in-running ODDS in FOOTBA LL and BASEBA LL. A method of using
correlations to predict in-running ODDS.




                                                                                16
                                                                Missing-data option: PAIR-WISE deletion
15, 21, 30, 31, 32, 26 2 m3   +2 +1               $117          -166         -.8
                                                               Assigning number 1 to the correlation matrix
13, 37, 39, 19, 14, 22 0 m3   +1                  $327         + 44          +.2
19, 25, 34, 46, 53, 15 0 m3   +1 +1                             + 00 range number 2 to the covariance matrix
                                                  $283 med ian Assigning 210

Y,C,X,Yhat,delta                                                Total case count: 5
2,2,10,2,0
0,1,0,1,1                                                         Name                        Variable        N
0,1,0,0,0                                                    Mean              StdDev
                                                                Y                                   V1        5
                                                             0.400               0.894
                                                                C                                   V2        5
15, 21, 30, 31, 32, 26 2 m3   +2                  $148
                                                             1.200               0.447
15, 21, 30, 31, 32, 26 2 m3   +1                  $748          X                                   V3        5
13, 37, 39, 19, 14, 22 0 m3   +1                  $362 med ian +00 range 600
                                                             2.000               4.472
19, 25, 34, 46, 53, 15 0 m3   +1                  $418          Yhat                                V4        5
                                                             0.600               0.894
19, 25, 34, 46, 53, 15 0 m3   +1                  $208
                                                                delta                               V5        5
                                                             0.200               0.447
                                     ***
CORRELATIONS -- PEARSONIAN CORRELATION ANALYSIS
***                                                             COVARIANCES
 MicrOsiris
 Nov 22, 2010                                                                            V1              V2
CORRELATIONS    1                                           V3                  V4             V5
                                                                                  Y             C
 Using dictionary C:\DOCUMENTS AND                          X          Yhat         delta
SETTINGS\USER\DESKTOP\PROGRAM                                Y      V1 8.000000E-01
FILES\MICROSIRIS\DATA\MYDATA.DIC                             C      V2 4.000000E-01 2.000000E-01
 Using data file C:\DOCUMENTS AND                            X      V3 4.000000E+00 2.000000E+00
SETTINGS\USER\DESKTOP\PROGRAM                               2.000000E+01
FILES\MICROSIRIS\DATA\MYDATA.DAT                             Yhat   V4 7.000000E-01 3.500000E-01
                                                            3.500000E+00 8.000000E-01
 Creating matrix file C:\DOCUMENTS AND                       delta V5 -1.000000E-01 -5.000000E-02 -5.000000E-
SETTINGS\USER\DESKTOP\PROGRAM                               01 1.000000E-01 2.000000E-01
FILES\MICROSIRIS\DATA\MYDATA.MICR




                                                                                                                  17
MicrOsiris                                          [Bindable]private var username:String;
Nov 22, 2010                                        private function onClick():void{
CORRELATIONS      2                                 username=usernameInput.text;
                                                    usernameLabel.visible=true;
                                                    }
 CORRELATIONS                                       ]]>
                                                    </fx:Script>
                   V1      V2      V3      V4       <s:Label x="44" y="36" text="Enter your name:"/>
                    Y       C       X    Yhat       <s:TextInput id="usernameInput" x="147" y="32"/>
 C       V2    1.0000                               <s:Button x="294" y="33" label="Submit"
 X       V3    1.0000 1.0000                        click="onClick()"/>
 Yhat    V4    0.8750 0.8750 0.8750                 <s:Label id="usernameLabel" text="Hello
 delta   V5   -0.2500 -0.2500 -0.2500   0.2500      {username}"
                                                    x="44" y="79" visible="false"/>
 The data analysis was generated using MicrOsiris   </s:Application>
software, Version 10, Copyright 2010 from
www.microsiris.com.                                 #Fractran

                                                    #Fractran is a game/computational model/language
C                                                   by John Conway.
                                                    #In Fractran, a program consists of a finite list
                                                    of positive, rational numbers.
                                                    #The input to a program is a positive integer n.
                                                    #The list is then searched in order, for a
#include <stdio.h>
main()                                              rational number p/q such that np/q is an integer.
{                                                   #Then n is replaced by np/q and the search is
for(;;)                                             restarted from the beginning of the list.
{                                                   #The program halts when no such number p/q can be
printf ("Hello World!\n");                          found,
}                                                   #and the final n becomes the output from the
}                                                   program.
                                                    #10/1 7/3 99/98 13/49 39/35 36/91 10/143 49/13
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
                                                    7/11 1/2 91/1
<s:Application
xmlns:fx="http://ns.adobe.com/mxml/2009"
xmlns:s="library://ns.adobe.com/flex/spark">        #This is done by multiplication of n=np/q and
<fx:Script>                                         n=n(p%q); or n*=(p/q), and n*=(p%q), where % is
<![CDATA[                                           modulus or remainder.




                                                                                                        18
#Taking first n*=(p%q), n is the remainder of p/q.   and prints 3. Since all numbers factor to primes.

#Taking next n*=(p/q), the quotient is multiplied
by n.
                                                     # A simple implementation of the RMSE calculation
#For example n is 10/1 is 2*5/1, the list,           used for the Netflix Prize
searched for p/q, is 1/2 such that np/q is 2*5*1/2   # use strict;
is 5/1;                                              # use warnings;
                                                     # my $numValues = 0;
#n is replaced by np/q, 10/1 is replaced by 5/1;     # my $sumSquaredValues = 0;
                                                     # while (<DATA>) {
#and the search is restarted from the beginning of       #my ($rating,$prediction) = split(/\,/);
the list.                                                #my $delta = $rating - $prediction;
                                                         #$numValues++;
# 39/35 is the only p/q which is divisible by 5          #$sumSquaredValues += $delta*$delta;
such that np/q is 5*39/5*7 but 3*13/7 is not an      #}
integer, so halt.                                    # Let perl do the truncation to 0.0001
                                                     # printf "%d pairs RMSE: %.5f\n", $numValues,
# And the final n, 5, is output. If the list is      #sqrt($sumSquaredValues/$numValues);
prime factored, so that:
                                                     # Some example data rating & prediction data
# 2 5/1 7/3 3 3 11/2 7 7 13/7 7 3 13/5 7     2 2 3   # NOTE: This is NOT in the proper prize format
3/7 13 2 5/11 13 7 7/13 7/11 1/2 7 13/1              #__DATA__
                                                     #2,3.2
# 2/1 5/1 searches for 1/2 and is replaced by 5/1,   #3,3.1
which is now the integer at front of list            #4,5.0
replacing 2 5/1;
                                                     #! /usr/bin/perl -w
#and 5/1 searches for 3/5 13/7 giving 3/1,           #use strict;
replaces 5/1 in first place .                        #use warnings;
                                                     # $^W = 1;
#3/1 searches for 7/3 giving 7/1 replacing 3/1 in    # $| = 1; # Turn on auto-flush
first place.
                                                     # my @movie_entries = ();
#7/1 searches for 3/2 3/7 11/7 giving 3/1            # while (<DATA>) {
replacing 7/1 in first place.                            # chop;
                                                         # my ($movie_id,$num_predictions) = split
#3/1 searches for 3p/q but there is none so halts    /\,/;




                                                                                                         19
    # push(@movie_entries,                           my ($a,$b) = split(/\,/);
[$movie_id,$num_predictions]);                       #my @P=<>=~/\d+/g;
# }                                                  #my $c=<>;

# my $num_movies = scalar(@movie_entries);           $c=($a%$b);
# my $submission_filename = $ARGV[0];                $d*=($a/$b);

# my $movie_index = -1;                              $e=($c*$d);
# my $num_predictions = 0;                           #$f*=($a*$b);
# my ($movie_id, $expected_movie_id,
$required_predictions);                              $i++;

# Uses standard input.                                   printf "%d pairs %d\n", $a, $b;
#7/3 99/98 13/49 39/35 36/91 10/143 49/13 7/11 1/2       #printf "%d total %d\n", $d, $i;
91/1                                                     #printf "%d times %d\n", $c, $d;
#7/3 3 3 11/2 7 7 13/7 7 3 13/5 7 2 2 3 3/7 13           printf "%d total %d\n", $e, $i;
2 5/11 13 7 7/13 7/11 1/2 7 13/1                         #printf "%d total %d\n", $f, $i;
# When started with n=10, this produces a sequence
of powers of 10 whose #exponents are successive      }
primes.
                                                     #Some example data
#@P=<>=~/\d+/g;$_=<>;                                # Uses standard input.
                                                     #7/3 99/98 13/49 39/35 36/91 10/143 49/13 7/11 1/2
#($a,$%)=@P[$i++,$i++],                              91/1
                                                     #7/3 3 3 11/2 7 7 13/7 7 3 13/5 7 2 2 3 3/7 13
#$_*$a%$%or$i=0,                                     2 5/11 13 7 7/13 7/11 1/2 7 13/1
#$_*=$a/$%while$i<@P;                                # When started with n=10, this produces a sequence
                                                     of powers of 10 whose #exponents are successive
use strict;                                          primes.
use warnings;                                        __DATA__
my $i = 0;                                           7,3
my $c = 1;                                           99,98
my $d = 1;                                           13,49
my $e = 1;                                           39,35
#my $f = 1;                                          36,91
my $g = 0;                                           10,143
while (<DATA>) {                                     49,13
                                                     7,11




                                                                                                      20
1,2
91,1
5,1
Microsoft Windows XP [Version 5.1.2600]
(C) Copyright 1985-2001 Microsoft Corp.

C:\Documents and Settings\Hardy>cd\

C:\>cd\strawberry\perl\bin

C:\strawberry\perl\bin>perl smallperl.pl
10 pairs 1
10 total 1
7 pairs 3
23 total 2
99 pairs 98
23 total 3
13 pairs 49
6 total 4
39 pairs 35
6 total 5
36 pairs 91
2 total 6
10 pairs 143
0 total 7
49 pairs 13
0 total 8
7 pairs 11
0 total 9
1 pairs 2
0 total 10
91 pairs 1
21 total 11

C:\strawberry\perl\bin>




                                           21
Hello world!
 1 19 123456 654321
 8 2 1234567 12345
 3 10 123456789 123
 4 10 password 1234
 5 10 iloveyou 1234
 6 10 princess 1234
 7 10 rockyou 123
 9 10 12345678 1234
10 10 abc123 1234
11 12 nicole daniel
13 10 babygirl 123
14 1 monkey 123456
15 2 Jessica 12345
16 1 lovely 123456
17 2 Michael 12345
18 1 Ashley 123456
20 1 qwerty 123456

The two numbers represent 1 to 20, frequency of most common
passwords. For example, „123456‟ is the most frequent password,
while qwerty is the twentieth most frequent password.
[“The Social Network Threat ”, Informationweek.com, Nov 2, 2010, p.
64] Sourc e: RockYou. #7.

A twelve character password, like Hello world! is used to create a
RSA encryption key, which is a simple CAESAR substitution cipher.
The task is to enter two frequency codes, „x‟ and „y‟, that will match
the pairs above. For example: „20‟ „01‟ enters the twentiet h and first
frequency passwords.
‟10‟ „10‟ enters an easy to remember pair of passwords. Any
password pair may also be entered.

A random password generator may use 2048 four letter words to
form a twelve letter passphrase.




                                                                          22
                                                                     time passwords are still difficult for ordinary people to
Network Working Group                                                           D. McDonald
                                                                     remember and enter. The authors of S/Key devised a
Request for Co mments: 1751                                                            NRL
Category: Info rmational
                                                                               make the 64-bit one-time password easy for
                                                                     system toDecember 1994
                                                                     people to enter.
Page 1
                                                                     Their idea was to transform the password into a string of
 A Convention for Human-Readable 128-bit Keys                        small English words. English words are significantly easier
                                                                     for people to both remember and type. The authors of
Status of this Memo
                                                                     S/Key started with a dictionary of 2048 English words,
    This memo provides information for the Internet                  ranging in length from one to four characters. The space
    community. This memo does not specify an Internet                covered by a 64-bit key (2^64) could be covered by six
    standard of any kind. Distribution of the memo is                words from this dictionary (2^66) with room remaining for
    unlimited.                                                       parity. For example, an S/Key one-time password of hex
                                                                     value:
Introduction
                                                                     EB33 F77E E73D 4053
    The Internet community has begun to address matters of
    security. Recent standards, including version 2 of SNMP          would become the following six English words:
    [GM93], have explicit requirements for an authentication         TIDE ITCH SLOW REIN RULE MOT
    mechanism. These require use of a keyed message-digest
    algorithm, MD5 [Riv92], with a key size of 128- bits. A
    128-bit key, while sufficiently strong, is hard for most
    people to read, remember, and type in. This memo proposes
    a convention for use with Internet applications & protocols
    using 128- bit cryptographic keys.
A Solution Already Exists

    The S/Key(tm) one-time password system [Hal94] uses
    MD4 (and now MD5, as well) to compute one-time
    passwords. It takes the 128-bit result of MD4 and collapses
    it to a 64-bit result. Despite the size reduction, 64-bit one-




                                                                                                                                 23
                                                                    CCAC 2AED 5910 56BE 4F90 FD44 1C53 4766
Page 2
                                                                    would become
   Because of the need for interoperability, it is undesirable to
                                                                    RASH BUSH MILK LOOK BAD BRIM AVID GAFF
   have different dictionaries for different languages. Also, the
                                                                    BAIT ROT POD LOVE
   current dictionary only uses characters from the invariant
   portion of ISO- 646. Finally, there is an installed base of      Likewise, a user should be able to type in
   users and applications with this dictionary.
                                                                    TROD MUTE TAIL WARM CHAR KONG HAAG CITY
The Proposal                                                        BORE O TEAL AWL
   The code (see Appendix A) which S/Key uses to convert            as a key, and the machine should make the translation to:
   64-bit numbers to six English words contains two
   primitives which perform conversions either way. The             EFF8 1F9B FBC6 5350 920C DD74 16DE 8009
   primitive btoe(char *engout,char *c) takes a 64-bit quantity
   referenced by c and places English words in the string           If this proposal is to work, it is critical that the dictionary of
   referenced by engout. The primitive etob(char *out,char          English words does not change with different
                                                                    implementations. A freely redistributable reference
      *e) performs the opposite with an input
   string of English words                                          implementation is given in Appendices A and B.
      referenced by e, and by placing the 64-bit
   result into the buffer
      referenced by out.
   The aforementioned primitives can be applied to both
   halves of a 128-bit key, or both halves of a string of twelve
   English words. Two new primitives (see Appendix B),
   key2eng(char *engout,char *key) and eng2key(char
   *keyout,char *eng) serve as wrappers which call the S/Key
   primitives twice, once for each half of the 128-bit key or
   string of twelve words.
   For example, the 128-bit key of:




                                                                                                                                    24
                                                                      [Hal94] Haller, N., "The S/Key(tm) One-Time Password
Page 3                                                                System", Proceedings of the Symposium on Network &
                                                                      Distributed Systems Security, Internet Society, San Diego,
Security Considerations                                               February 1994.
   This document recommends a method of representing 128-             [Riv92] Rivest, R., "The MD5 Message-Digest Algorithm",
   bit keys using strings of English words. Since the strings of      RFC 1321, MIT Laboratory for Computer Science and
   English words are easy to remember, people may                     RSA Data Security, Inc., April 1992.
   potentially construct easy-to-guess strings of English
   words. With easy-to-guess strings comes the possibility of      Author's Address
   a sentential equivalent of a dictionary attack. In order to
   maximize the strength of any authentication mechanism              Daniel L. McDonald
                                                                      United States Naval Research Laboratory
   that uses 128-bit keys, the keys must be sufficiently
                                                                      Code 5544
   obscure. In particular, people should avoid the temptation
                                                                      4555 Overlook Ave. SW
   to devise sentences.
                                                                      Washington, DC 20375
Acknowledgements
                                                                      Phone: (202) 404-7122
   S/Key is a registered trademark of Bell Communications             EMail: danmcd@itd.nrl.navy.mil
   Research.
   Thanks to Randall Atkinson for the bulk of the security
   considerations section, and for general advice. Thanks to
   Phil Karn and Neil Haller for producing the S/Key one-
   time password system, which inspired this document.
References

   [GM93] Galvin, J. and K. McCloghrie, "Security Protocols
   for version 2 of the Simple Network Management Protocol
   (SNMPv2)", RFC 1446, Trusted Information Systems,
   Hughes LAN Systems, April 1993.




                                                                                                                               25
Page 4

Appendix A - Source for S/Key 8-bytes to/from Words
Routines (put.c)
    /* This code originally appeared in the source
    for S/Key(TM),
     * available in the directory
     *   ftp://thumper.bellcore.com/pub/nmh
     *
     * It has been modified only to remove explicit
    S/Key(TM) references.
     */

    #include    <stdio.h>
    #include    <string.h>
    #include    <assert.h>
    #include    <ctype.h>

    #ifdef __STDC__
    #define __ARGS(x) x
    #else
    #define __ARGS(x) ()
    #endif
static unsigned long extract __ARGS((char *s,int start,int
length));
static void standard __ARGS((char *word));
static void insert __ARGS((char *s, int x, int start, int length));
static int wsrch __ARGS((char *w,int low,int high));




                                                                      26
                                                          "GUS", "GUT", "GUY", "GYM", "GYP", "HA", "HAD",
                                                          "HAL", "HAM", "HAN", "HAP", "HAS", "HAT", "HAW",
/* Dictionary for integer-word translations */
char Wp[2048][4] = { "A", "ABE", "ACE", "ACT",
                                                          "HAY", "HE", "HEM", "HEN", "HER", "HEW", "HEY",
"AD", "ADA", "ADD",                                       "HI", "HID", "HIM", "HIP", "HIS", "HIT",
"AGO", "AID", "AIM", "AIR", "ALL", "ALP", "AM",
"AMY", "AN", "ANA", "AND", "ANN", "ANT", "ANY",
"APE", "APS", "APT", "ARC", "ARE", "ARK", "ARM",
"ART", "AS", "ASH", "ASK", "AT", "ATE", "AUG",
"AUK", "AVE", "AWE", "AWK", "AWL", "AWN", "AX",
"AYE", "BAD", "BAG", "BAH", "BAM", "BAN", "BAR",
"BAT", "BAY", "BE", "BED", "BEE", "BEG", "BEN",
"BET", "BEY", "BIB", "BID", "BIG", "BIN", "BIT",
"BOB", "BOG", "BON", "BOO", "BOP", "BOW", "BOY",
"BUB", "BUD", "BUG", "BUM", "BUN", "BUS", "BUT",
"BUY", "BY", "BYE", "CAB", "CAL", "CAM", "CAN",
"CAP", "CAR", "CAT", "CAW", "COD", "COG", "COL",
"CON", "COO", "COP", "COT", "COW", "COY", "CRY",
"CUB", "CUE", "CUP", "CUR", "CUT", "DAB", "DAD",
"DAM", "DAN", "DAR", "DAY", "DEE", "DEL", "DEN",
"DES", "DEW", "DID", "DIE", "DIG", "DIN", "DIP",
"DO", "DOE", "DOG", "DON", "DOT", "DOW", "DRY",
"DUB", "DUD", "DUE", "DUG", "DUN", "EAR", "EAT",
"ED", "EEL", "EGG", "EGO", "ELI", "ELK", "ELM",
"ELY", "EM", "END", "EST", "ETC", "EVA", "EVE",
"EWE", "EYE", "FAD", "FAN", "FAR", "FAT", "FAY",
"FED", "FEE", "FEW", "FIB", "FIG", "FIN", "FIR", "FIT",
"FLO", "FLY", "FOE", "FOG", "FOR", "FRY", "FUM",
"FUN", "FUR", "GAB", "GAD", "GAG", "GAL", "GAM",
"GAP", "GAS", "GAY", "GEE", "GEL", "GEM", "GET",
"GIG", "GIL", "GIN", "GO", "GOT", "GUM", "GUN",




                                                                                                        27
                                                            "PIT", "PLY", "PO", "POD", "POE", "POP", "POT",
Page 5                                                      "POW", "PRO", "PRY", "PUB", "PUG", "PUN", "PUP",
                                                            "PUT", "QUO", "RAG", "RAM", "RAN", "RAP", "RAT",
   "HO", "HOB", "HOC", "HOE", "HOG", "HOP", "HOT",          "RAW", "RAY", "REB", "RED", "REP", "RET", "RIB",
   "HOW", "HUB", "HUE", "HUG", "HUH", "HUM",                "RID", "RIG", "RIM", "RIO", "RIP", "ROB", "ROD",
   "HUT", "I", "ICY", "IDA", "IF", "IKE", "ILL", "INK",     "ROE", "RON", "ROT", "ROW", "ROY", "RUB", "RUE",
   "INN", "IO", "ION", "IQ", "IRA", "IRE", "IRK", "IS",     "RUG", "RUM", "RUN", "RYE", "SAC", "SAD", "SAG",
   "IT", "ITS", "IVY", "JAB", "JAG", "JAM", "JAN", "JAR",   "SAL", "SAM", "SAN", "SAP", "SAT", "SAW", "SAY",
   "JAW", "JAY", "JET", "JIG", "JIM", "JO", "JOB", "JOE",   "SEA", "SEC", "SEE", "SEN", "SET", "SEW", "SHE",
   "JOG", "JOT", "JOY", "JUG", "JUT", "KAY", "KEG",         "SHY", "SIN", "SIP", "SIR", "SIS", "SIT", "SKI", "SKY",
   "KEN", "KEY", "KID", "KIM", "KIN", "KIT", "LA",          "SLY", "SO", "SOB", "SOD", "SON", "SOP", "SOW",
   "LAB", "LAC", "LAD", "LAG", "LAM", "LAP", "LAW",         "SOY", "SPA", "SPY", "SUB", "SUD", "SUE", "SUM",
   "LAY", "LEA", "LED", "LEE", "LEG", "LEN", "LEO",         "SUN", "SUP", "TAB", "TAD", "TAG", "TAN", "TAP",
   "LET", "LEW", "LID", "LIE", "LIN", "LIP", "LIT", "LO",   "TAR", "TEA", "TED", "TEE", "TEN", "THE", "THY",
   "LOB", "LOG", "LOP", "LOS", "LOT", "LOU", "LOW",         "TIC", "TIE", "TIM", "TIN", "TIP", "TO", "TOE", "TOG",
   "LOY", "LUG", "LYE", "MA", "MAC", "MAD", "MAE",          "TOM", "TON", "TOO", "TOP", "TOW", "TOY", "TRY",
   "MAN", "MAO", "MAP", "MAT", "MAW", "MAY",                "TUB", "TUG", "TUM", "TUN", "TWO", "UN", "UP",
   "ME", "MEG", "MEL", "MEN", "MET", "MEW", "MID",          "US", "USE", "VAN", "VAT", "VET", "VIE", "WAD",
   "MIN", "MIT", "MOB", "MOD", "MOE", "MOO",                "WAG", "WAR", "WAS", "WAY", "WE", "WEB",
   "MOP", "MOS", "MOT", "MOW", "MUD", "MUG",                "WED", "WEE", "WET", "WHO", "WHY", "WIN",
   "MUM", "MY", "NAB", "NAG", "NAN", "NAP", "NAT",          "WIT", "WOK", "WON", "WOO", "WOW", "WRY",
   "NAY", "NE", "NED", "NEE", "NET", "NEW", "NIB",          "WU", "YAM", "YAP", "YAW", "YE", "YEA", "YES",
   "NIL", "NIP", "NIT", "NO", "NOB", "NOD", "NON",          "YET", "YOU", "ABED", "ABEL", "ABET", "ABLE",
   "NOR", "NOT", "NOV", "NOW", "NU", "NUN", "NUT",          "ABUT", "ACHE", "ACID", "ACME", "ACRE", "ACTA",
   "O", "OAF", "OAK", "OAR", "OAT", "ODD", "ODE",           "ACTS", "ADAM", "ADDS", "ADEN", "AFAR",
   "OF", "OFF", "OFT", "OH", "OIL", "OK", "OLD", "ON",      "AFRO", "AGEE", "AHEM", "AHOY", "AIDA", "AIDE",
   "ONE", "OR", "ORB", "ORE", "ORR", "OS", "OTT",           "AIDS", "AIRY", "AJAR", "AKIN", "ALAN", "ALEC",
   "OUR", "OUT", "OVA", "OW", "OWE", "OWL", "OWN",          "ALGA", "ALIA", "ALLY", "ALMA", "ALOE", "ALSO",
   "OX", "PA", "PAD", "PAL", "PAM", "PAN", "PAP",           "ALTO", "ALUM", "ALVA", "AMEN", "AMES",
   "PAR", "PAT", "PAW", "PAY", "PEA", "PEG", "PEN",         "AMID", "AMMO", "AMOK", "AMOS", "AMRA",
   "PEP", "PER", "PET", "PEW", "PHI", "PI", "PIE", "PIN",   "ANDY", "ANEW", "ANNA", "ANNE", "ANTE",



                                                                                                                 28
"ANTI", "AQUA", "ARAB", "ARCH", "AREA",
"ARGO", "ARID", "ARMY", "ARTS", "ARTY", "ASIA",
"ASKS", "ATOM", "AUNT", "AURA", "AUTO",
"AVER", "AVID", "AVIS", "AVON", "AVOW",
"AWAY", "AWRY", "BABE", "BABY", "BACH",




                                                  29
"BACK", "BADE", "BAIL", "BAIT", "BAKE", "BALD",
"BALE", "BALI", "BALK", "BALL", "BALM", "BAND",
"BANE", "BANG", "BANK", "BARB", "BARD",
"BARE", "BARK", "BARN", "BARR", "BASE", "BASH",
"BASK", "BASS", "BATE", "BATH", "BAWD",
"BAWL", "BEAD", "BEAK", "BEAM", "BEAN",
"BEAR", "BEAT", "BEAU", "BECK", "BEEF", "BEEN",
"BEER




                                                  30
Page 6                                            "COMB", "COME", "COOK", "COOL", "COON",
                                                  "COOT", "CORD", "CORE", "CORK", "CORN", "COST",
"BEET", "BELA", "BELL", "BELT", "BEND", "BENT",   "COVE", "COWL", "CRAB", "CRAG", "CRAM",
"BERG", "BERN", "BERT", "BESS", "BEST", "BETA",   "CRAY", "CREW", "CRIB", "CROW", "CRUD",
"BETH", "BHOY", "BIAS", "BIDE", "BIEN", "BILE",   "CUBA", "CUBE", "CUFF", "CULL", "CULT", "CUNY",
"BILK", "BILL", "BIND", "BING", "BIRD", "BITE",   "CURB", "CURD", "CURE", "CURL", "CURT", "CUTS",
"BITS", "BLAB", "BLAT", "BLED", "BLEW", "BLOB",   "DADE", "DALE", "DAME", "DANA", "DANE",
"BLOC", "BLOT", "BLOW", "BLUE", "BLUM",           "DANG", "DANK", "DARE", "DARK", "DARN",
"BLUR", "BOAR", "BOAT", "BOCA", "BOCK",           "DART", "DASH", "DATA", "DATE", "DAVE",
"BODE", "BODY", "BOGY", "BOHR", "BOIL", "BOLD",   "DAVY", "DAWN", "DAYS", "DEAD", "DEAF",
"BOLO", "BOLT", "BOMB", "BONA", "BOND",           "DEAL", "DEAN", "DEAR", "DEBT", "DECK", "DEED",
"BONE", "BONG", "BONN", "BONY", "BOOK",           "DEEM", "DEER", "DEFT", "DEFY", "DELL", "DENT",
"BOOM", "BOON", "BOOT", "BORE", "BORG",           "DENY", "DESK", "DIAL", "DICE", "DIED", "DIET",
"BORN", "BOSE", "BOSS", "BOTH", "BOUT", "BOWL",   "DIME", "DINE", "DING", "DINT", "DIRE", "DIRT",
"BOYD", "BRAD", "BRAE", "BRAG", "BRAN",           "DISC", "DISH", "DISK", "DIVE", "DOCK", "DOES",
"BRAY", "BRED", "BREW", "BRIG", "BRIM", "BROW",   "DOLE", "DOLL", "DOLT", "DOME", "DONE",
"BUCK", "BUDD", "BUFF", "BULB", "BULK", "BULL",   "DOOM", "DOOR", "DORA", "DOSE", "DOTE",
"BUNK", "BUNT", "BUOY", "BURG", "BURL",           "DOUG", "DOUR", "DOVE", "DOWN", "DRAB",
"BURN", "BURR", "BURT", "BURY", "BUSH", "BUSS",   "DRAG", "DRAM", "DRAW", "DREW", "DRUB",
"BUST", "BUSY", "BYTE", "CADY", "CAFE", "CAGE",   "DRUG", "DRUM", "DUAL", "DUCK", "DUCT",
"CAIN", "CAKE", "CALF", "CALL", "CALM", "CAME",   "DUEL", "DUET", "DUKE", "DULL", "DUMB",
"CANE", "CANT", "CARD", "CARE", "CARL", "CARR",   "DUNE", "DUNK", "DUSK", "DUST", "DUTY",
"CART", "CASE", "CASH", "CASK", "CAST", "CAVE",   "EACH", "EARL", "EARN", "EASE", "EAST", "EASY",
"CEIL", "CELL", "CENT", "CERN", "CHAD", "CHAR",   "EBEN", "ECHO", "EDDY", "EDEN", "EDGE", "EDGY",
"CHAT", "CHAW", "CHEF", "CHEN", "CHEW",           "EDIT", "EDNA", "EGAN", "ELAN", "ELBA", "ELLA",
"CHIC", "CHIN", "CHOU", "CHOW", "CHUB", "CHUG",   "ELSE", "EMIL", "EMIT", "EMMA", "ENDS", "ERIC",
"CHUM", "CITE", "CITY", "CLAD", "CLAM", "CLAN",   "EROS", "EVEN", "EVER", "EVIL", "EYED", "FACE",
"CLAW", "CLAY", "CLOD", "CLOG", "CLOT",           "FACT", "FADE", "FAIL", "FAIN", "FAIR", "FAKE",
"CLUB", "CLUE", "COAL", "COAT", "COCA", "COCK",   "FALL", "FAME", "FANG", "FARM", "FAST", "FATE",
"COCO", "CODA", "CODE", "CODY", "COED", "COIL",   "FAWN", "FEAR", "FEAT", "FEED", "FEEL", "FEET",
"COIN", "COKE", "COLA", "COLD", "COLT", "COMA",   "FELL", "FELT", "FEND", "FERN", "FEST", "FEUD",



                                                                                               31
   "FIEF", "FIGS", "FILE", "FILL", "FILM", "FIND",   "HAND", "HANG", "HANK", "HANS", "HARD",
   "FINE", "FINK", "FIRE", "FIRM", "FISH", "FISK",   "HARK", "HARM", "HART", "HASH", "HAST",
   "FIST", "FITS", "FIVE", "FLAG", "FLAK", "FLAM",   "HATE", "HATH", "HAUL", "HAVE", "HAWK",
   "FLAT", "FLAW", "FLEA", "FLED", "FLEW", "FLIT",   "HAYS", "HEAD", "HEAL", "HEAR", "HEAT", "HEBE",
   "FLOC", "FLOG", "FLOW", "FLUB", "FLUE", "FOAL",   "HECK", "HEED", "HEEL", "HEFT", "HELD", "HELL",
   "FOAM", "FOGY", "FOIL", "FOLD", "FOLK", "FOND",   "HELM", "HERB", "HERD", "HERE", "HERO", "HERS",
   "FONT", "FOOD", "FOOL", "FOOT", "FORD", "FORE",   "HESS", "HEWN", "HICK", "HIDE", "HIGH", "HIKE",
   "FORK", "FORM", "FORT", "FOSS", "FOUL", "FOUR",   "HILL", "HILT", "HIND", "HINT", "HIRE", "HISS",
   "FOWL", "FRAU", "FRAY", "FRED", "FREE", "FRET",   "HIVE", "HOBO", "HOCK", "HOFF", "HOLD", "HOLE",
   "FREY", "FROG", "FROM", "FUEL", "FULL", "FUME",   "HOLM", "HOLT", "HOME", "HONE", "HONK",
   "FUND", "FUNK", "FURY", "FUSE", "FUSS", "GAFF",   "HOOD", "HOOF", "HOOK", "HOOT", "HORN",
   "GAGE", "GAIL", "GAIN", "GAIT", "GALA", "GALE",   "HOSE", "HOST", "HOUR", "HOVE", "HOWE",
   "GALL", "GALT", "GAME", "GANG", "GARB",           "HOWL", "HOYT", "HUCK", "HUED", "HUFF",
   "GARY", "GASH", "GATE", "GAUL", "GAUR",           "HUGE", "HUGH", "HUGO", "HULK", "HULL",
   "GAVE", "GAWK", "GEAR", "GELD", "GENE",           "HUNK", "HUNT", "HURD", "HURL", "HURT",
   "GENT", "GERM", "GETS", "GIBE", "GIFT", "GILD",   "HUSH", "HYDE", "HYMN", "IBIS", "ICON", "IDEA",
   "GILL", "GILT",                                   "IDLE", "IFFY", "INCA", "INCH", "INTO", "IONS",
                                                     "IOTA", "IOWA", "IRIS", "IRMA", "IRON", "ISLE",
                                                     "ITCH", "ITEM", "IVAN", "JACK", "JADE", "JAIL",
Page 7
                                                     "JAKE", "JANE", "JAVA", "JEAN", "JEFF", "JERK",
   "GINA", "GIRD", "GIRL", "GIST", "GIVE", "GLAD",   "JESS", "JEST", "JIBE", "JILL", "JILT", "JIVE", "JOAN",
   "GLEE", "GLEN", "GLIB", "GLOB", "GLOM", "GLOW",   "JOBS", "JOCK", "JOEL", "JOEY", "JOHN", "JOIN",
   "GLUE", "GLUM", "GLUT", "GOAD", "GOAL",           "JOKE", "JOLT", "JOVE", "JUDD", "JUDE", "JUDO",
   "GOAT", "GOER", "GOES", "GOLD", "GOLF", "GONE",   "JUDY", "JUJU", "JUKE", "JULY", "JUNE", "JUNK",
   "GONG", "GOOD", "GOOF", "GORE", "GORY",           "JUNO", "JURY", "JUST", "JUTE", "KAHN", "KALE",
   "GOSH", "GOUT", "GOWN", "GRAB", "GRAD",           "KANE", "KANT", "KARL", "KATE", "KEEL", "KEEN",
   "GRAY", "GREG", "GREW", "GREY", "GRID", "GRIM",   "KENO", "KENT", "KERN", "KERR", "KEYS", "KICK",
   "GRIN", "GRIT", "GROW", "GRUB", "GULF", "GULL",   "KILL", "KIND", "KING", "KIRK", "KISS", "KITE",
   "GUNK", "GURU", "GUSH", "GUST", "GWEN",           "KLAN", "KNEE", "KNEW", "KNIT", "KNOB",
   "GWYN", "HAAG", "HAAS", "HACK", "HAIL",           "KNOT", "KNOW", "KOCH", "KONG", "KUDO",
   "HAIR", "HALE", "HALF", "HALL", "HALO", "HALT",   "KURD", "KURT", "KYLE", "LACE", "LACK", "LACY",



                                                                                                          32
"LADY", "LAID", "LAIN", "LAIR", "LAKE", "LAMB",       "MORT", "MOSS", "MOST", "MOTH", "MOVE",
"LAME", "LAND", "LANE", "LANG", "LARD",               "MUCH", "MUCK", "MUDD", "MUFF", "MULE",
"LARK", "LASS", "LAST", "LATE", "LAUD", "LAVA",       "MULL", "MURK", "MUSH", "MUST", "MUTE",
"LAWN", "LAWS", "LAYS", "LEAD", "LEAF", "LEAK",       "MUTT", "MYRA", "MYTH", "NAGY", "NAIL",
"LEAN", "LEAR", "LEEK", "LEER", "LEFT", "LEND",
"LENS", "LENT", "LEON", "LESK", "LESS", "LEST",
"LETS", "LIAR", "LICE", "LICK", "LIED", "LIEN",    Page 8
"LIES", "LIEU", "LIFE", "LIFT", "LIKE", "LILA",       "NAIR", "NAME", "NARY", "NASH", "NAVE",
"LILT", "LILY", "LIMA", "LIMB", "LIME", "LIND",       "NAVY", "NEAL", "NEAR", "NEAT", "NECK", "NEED",
"LINE", "LINK", "LINT", "LION", "LISA", "LIST",       "NEIL", "NELL", "NEON", "NERO", "NESS", "NEST",
"LIVE", "LOAD", "LOAF", "LOAM", "LOAN", "LOCK",       "NEWS", "NEWT", "NIBS", "NICE", "NICK", "NILE",
"LOFT", "LOGE", "LOIS", "LO LA", "LONE", "LONG",      "NINA", "NINE", "NOAH", "NODE", "NOEL", "NOLL",
"LOOK", "LOON", "LOOT", "LORD", "LORE", "LOSE",       "NONE", "NOOK", "NOON", "NORM", "NOSE",
"LOSS", "LOST", "LOUD", "LOVE", "LOWE", "LUCK",       "NOTE", "NOUN", "NOVA", "NUDE", "NULL",
"LUCY", "LUGE", "LUKE", "LULU", "LUND", "LUNG",       "NUMB", "OATH", "OBEY", "OBOE", "ODIN", "OHIO",
"LURA", "LURE", "LURK", "LUSH", "LUST", "LYLE",       "OILY", "OINT", "OKAY", "OLAF", "OLDY", "OLGA",
"LYNN", "LYON", "LYRA", "MACE", "MADE",               "OLIN", "OMAN", "OMEN", "OMIT", "ONCE", "ONES",
"MAGI", "MAID", "MAIL", "MAIN", "MAKE", "MALE",       "ONLY", "ONTO", "ONUS", "ORAL", "ORGY",
"MALI", "MALL", "MALT", "MANA", "MANN",               "OSLO", "OTIS", "OTTO", "OUCH", "OUST", "OUTS",
"MANY", "MARC", "MARE", "MARK", "MARS",               "OVAL", "OVEN", "OVER", "OWLY", "OWNS",
"MART", "MARY", "MASH", "MASK", "MASS",               "QUAD", "QUIT", "QUOD", "RACE", "RACK",
"MAST", "MATE", "MATH", "MAUL", "M AYO",              "RACY", "RAFT", "RAGE", "RAID", "RAIL", "RAIN",
"MEAD", "MEAL", "MEAN", "MEAT", "MEEK",               "RAKE", "RANK", "RANT", "RARE", "RASH", "RATE",
"MEET", "MELD", "MELT", "MEMO", "MEND",               "RAVE", "RAYS", "READ", "REAL", "REAM", "REAR",
"MENU", "MERT", "MESH", "MESS", "MICE", "MIKE",       "RECK", "REED", "REEF", "REEK", "REEL", "REID",
"MILD", "MILE", "MILK", "MILL", "MILT", "MIMI",       "REIN", "RENA", "REND", "RENT", "REST", "RICE",
"MIND", "MINE", "MINI", "MINK", "MINT", "MIRE",       "RICH", "RICK", "RIDE", "RIFT", "RILL", "RIME",
"MISS", "MIST", "MITE", "MITT", "MOAN", "MOAT",       "RING", "RINK", "RISE", "RISK", "RITE", "ROAD",
"MOCK", "MODE", "MOLD", "MOLE", "MOLL",               "ROAM", "ROAR", "ROBE", "ROCK", "RODE", "ROIL",
"MOLT", "MONA", "MONK", "MONT", "MOOD",               "ROLL", "ROME", "ROOD", "ROOF", "ROOK",
"MOON", "MOOR", "MOOT", "MORE", "MORN",               "ROOM", "ROOT", "ROSA", "ROSE", "ROSS", "ROSY",



                                                                                                   33
"ROTH", "ROUT", "ROVE", "ROWE", "ROWS",              "TESS", "TEST", "THAN", "THAT", "THEE", "THEM",
"RUBE", "RUBY", "RUDE", "RUDY", "RUIN", "RULE",      "THEN", "THEY", "THIN", "THIS", "THUD", "THUG",
"RUNG", "RUNS", "RUNT", "RUSE", "RUSH", "RUSK",      "TICK", "TIDE", "TIDY", "TIED", "TIER", "TILE",
"RUSS", "RUST", "RUTH", "SACK", "SAFE", "SAGE",      "TILL", "TILT", "TIME", "TINA", "TINE", "TINT",
"SAID", "SAIL", "SALE", "SALK", "SALT", "SAME",      "TINY", "TIRE", "TOAD", "TOGO", "TOIL", "TOLD",
"SAND", "SANE", "SANG", "SANK", "SARA", "SAUL",      "TOLL", "TONE", "TONG", "TONY", "TOOK", "TOOL",
"SAVE", "SAYS", "SCAN", "SCAR", "SCAT", "SCOT",      "TOOT", "TORE", "TORN", "TOTE", "TOUR", "TOUT",
"SEAL", "SEAM", "SEAR", "SEAT", "SEED", "SEEK",      "TOWN", "TRAG", "TRAM", "TRAY", "TREE",
"SEEM", "SEEN", "SEES", "SELF", "SELL", "SEND",      "TREK", "TRIG", "TRIM", "TRIO", "TROD", "TROT",
"SENT", "SETS", "SEWN", "SHAG", "SHAM", "SHAW",      "TROY", "TRUE", "TUBA", "TUBE", "TUCK", "TUFT",
"SHAY", "SHED", "SHIM", "SHIN", "SHOD", "SHOE",      "TUNA", "TUNE", "TUNG", "TURF", "TURN", "TUSK",
"SHOT", "SHOW", "SHUN", "SHUT", "SICK", "SIDE",      "TWIG", "TWIN", "TWIT", "ULAN", "UNIT", "URGE",
"SIFT", "SIGH", "SIGN", "SILK", "SILL", "SILO",      "USED", "USER", "USES", "UTAH", "VAIL", "VAIN",
"SILT", "SINE", "SING", "SINK", "SIRE", "SITE",      "VALE", "VARY", "VASE", "VAST", "VEAL", "VEDA",
"SITS", "SITU", "SKAT", "SKEW", "SKID", "SKIM",      "VEIL", "VEIN", "VEND", "VENT", "VERB", "VERY",
"SKIN", "SKIT", "SLAB", "SLAM", "SLAT", "SLAY",      "VETO", "VICE", "VIEW", "VINE", "VISE", "VOID",
"SLED", "SLEW", "SLID", "SLIM", "SLIT", "SLOB",      "VOLT", "VOTE", "WACK", "WADE", "WAGE",
"SLOG", "SLOT", "SLOW", "SLUG", "SLUM", "SLUR",      "WAIL", "WAIT", "WAKE", "WALE", "WALK",
"SMOG", "SMUG", "SNAG", "SNOB", "SNOW",              "WALL", "WALT", "WAND", "WANE", "WANG",
"SNUB", "SNUG", "SOAK", "SOAR", "SOCK", "SODA",      "WANT", "WARD", "WARM",
"SOFA", "SOFT", "SOIL", "SOLD", "SOME", "SONG",
"SOON", "SOOT", "SORE", "SORT", "SOUL", "SOUR",
                                                  Page 9
"SOWN", "STAB", "STAG", "STAN", "STAR", "STAY",
"STEM", "STEW", "STIR", "STOW", "STUB", "STUN",      "WARN", "WART", "WASH", "WAST", "WATS",
"SUCH", "SUDS", "SUIT", "SULK", "SUMS", "SUNG",      "WATT", "WAVE", "WAVY", "WAYS", "WEAK",
"SUNK", "SURE", "SURF", "SWAB", "SWAG",              "WEAL", "WEAN", "WEAR", "WEED", "WEEK ",
"SWAM", "SWAN", "SWAT", "SWAY", "SWIM",              "WEIR", "WELD", "WELL", "WELT", "WENT",
"SWUM", "TACK", "TACT", "TAIL", "TAKE", "TALE",      "WERE", "WERT", "WEST", "WHAM", "WHAT",
"TALK", "TALL", "TANK", "TASK", "TATE", "TAUT",      "WHEE", "WHEN", "WHET", "WHOA", "WHOM",
"TEAL", "TEAM", "TEAR", "TECH", "TEEM", "TEEN",      "WICK", "WIFE", "WILD", "WILL", "WIND", "WINE",
"TEET", "TELL", "TEND", "TENT", "TERM", "TERN",      "WING", "WINK", "WINO", "WIRE", "WISE", "WISH",



                                                                                                   34
   "WITH", "WOLF", "WONT", "WOOD", "WOOL",                           strcat(engout," ");
   "WORD", "WORE", "WORK", "WORM", "WORN",
                                                            strncat(engout,&Wp[extract(cp,33,11)][0],4);
   "WOVE", "WRIT", "WYNN", "YALE", "YANG",                          strcat(engout," ");
   "YANK", "YARD", "YARN", "YAWL", "YAWN",
   "YEAH", "YEAR", "YELL", "YOGA", "YOKE"                   strncat(engout,&Wp[extract(cp,44,11)][0],4);
   };                                                               strcat(engout," ");

   /* Encode 8 bytes in 'c' as a string of English          strncat(engout,&Wp[extract(cp,55,11)][0],4);
   words.                                                   #ifdef notdef
    * Returns a pointer to a static buffer                          printf("engout is %s\n\r",engout);
    */                                                      #endif
char *                                                              return(engout);
                                                            }
btoe(engout,c)
                                                            /* convert English to binary
                                                             * returns 1 OK - all good words and parity is
char *c, *engout;                                           OK
   {                                                         *         0 word not in data base
           char cp[9];       /* add in room for the          *        -1 badly formed in put ie > 4 char
   parity 2 bits*/                                          word
           int p,i ;

             engout[0] = '\0';                        Page 10
             memcpy(cp, c,8);                                   *      -2 words OK but parity is wrong
             /* compute parity */                               */
             for(p = 0,i = 0; i < 64;i += 2)
                     p += extract(cp,i,2);            int

           cp[8] = (char)p << 6;                      etob(out, e)
           strncat(engout,&Wp[extract(cp,
   0,11)][0],4);                                      char *out;
           strcat(engout," ");
                                                      char *e;
   strncat(engout,&Wp[extract(cp,11,11)][0],4);
           strcat(engout," ");                              {
                                                                     char *word;
                                                                     int i, p, v,l, low,high;
   strncat(engout,&Wp[extract(cp,22,11)][0],4);




                                                                                                             35
          char b[9];                                  memcpy(out,b,8);
          char input[36];
                                                      return 1;
          if(e == NULL)
                  return -1;
                                                      }

strncpy(input,e,sizeof(input));
memset(b, 0, sizeof(b));                           Page 11
memset(out, 0, 8);                                    /* Display 8 bytes as a series of 16-bit hex
for(i=0,p=0;i<6;i++,p+=11){                           digits */
                if((word = strtok(i == 0 ?         char *
input : NULL," ")) == NULL)
                         return -1;                put8(out,s)
                l = strlen(word);
                if(l > 4 || l < 1){                char *out;
                         return -1;
                } else if(l < 4){                  char *s;
                         low = 0;
                         high = 570;                  {
                } else {                                      sprintf(out,"%02X%02X %02X%02X %02X%02X
                         low = 571;                   %02X%02X",
                         high = 2047;                                 s[0] & 0xff,s[1] & 0xff,s[2] &
                }                                     0xff,
                standard(word);                                       s[3] & 0xff,s[4] & 0xff,s[5] &
                if( (v = wsrch(word,low,high))        0xff,
< 0 )                                                                 s[6] & 0xff,s[7] & 0xff);
                         return 0;                            return out;
                insert(b,v,p,11);                     }
        }
                                                      #ifdef notdef
          /* now check the parity of what we got      /* Encode 8 bytes in 'cp' as stream of ascii
*/                                                    letters.
          for(p = 0, i = 0; i < 64; i +=2)             * Provided as a possible alternative to btoe()
                  p += extract(b, i, 2);               */
                                                   char *
          if( (p & 3) != extract(b, 64,2) )
                  return -2;




                                                                                                     36
btoc(cp)                                                            for(;;){
                                                                                   i = (low + high)/2;
char *cp;                                                                          if((j = strncmp(w,Wp[i],4)) ==
                                                         0)
    {                                                                                      return i;          /*
                 int i;                                  Found it */
                 static char out[31];                                              if(high == low+1){

            /* code out put by characters 6 bits
    each added to 0x21 (!)*/                         Page 12
            for(i=0;i <= 10;i++){                                                /* Avoid effects of
                    /* last one is only 4 bits not       integer truncation in /2 */
    6*/
                    out[i] = '!'+ extract(cp,6*i,i       if(strncmp(w,Wp[high],4) == 0)
    >= 10 ? 4:6);                                                                                     return high;
            }                                                                              else
            out[i] = '\0';                                                                         return -1;
            return(out);                                                           }
    }                                                                              if(low >= high)
                                                                                           return -1;
    #endif                                                                            /* I don't *think* this can
                                                         happen...*/
    /* Internal subroutines for word                                               if(j < 0)
    encoding/decoding */                                                                   high = i;     /* Search
                                                         lower half */
    /* Dictionary binary search */                                                 else
static int                                                                                 low = i;      /* Search
                                                         upper half */
wsrch(w,low,high)                                                }
                                                         }
char *w;
                                                     static void
int low, high;
    {                                                insert(s, x, start, length)
                 int i,j;
                                                     char *s;




                                                                                                                     37
int x;                                                 static void
int start, length;                                     standard(word)
    {
               unsigned char       cl;                 register char *word;
               unsigned char       cc;                     {
               unsigned char       cr;                                while(*word){
               unsigned long       y;                                         if(!isascii(*word))
               int shift;                                                             break;
                                                                              if(islower(*word))
    assert(length <= 11);                                                             *word = toupper(*word);
    assert(start >= 0);                                                       if(*word == '1')
    assert(length >= 0);                                                              *word = 'L';
    assert(start +length <= 66);                                              if(*word == '0')
                                                                                      *word = 'O';
               shift = ((8     -(( start + length) %                          if(*word == '5')
    8))%8);                                                                           *word = 'S';
               y = (long) x << shift;                                         word++;
               cl = (y >> 16) & 0xff;                                 }
               cc = (y >> 8) & 0xff;
               cr = y & 0xff;                              }
               if(shift + length > 16){
                                                           /* Extract 'length' bits from the char array
                        s[start /8] |= cl;
                                                           's'
                        s[start/8 +1] |= cc;
                                                               starting with bit 'start' */
                        s[start/8 +2] |= cr;
               } else if(shift +length > 8){           static unsigned long
                        s[start/8] |= cc;
                        s[start/8 + 1] |= cr;          extract(s, start, length)
               } else {
                        s[start/8] |= cr;              char *s;
               }
    }                                                  int start, length;
                                                           {
                                                                      unsigned char cl;
Page 13                                                               unsigned char cc;
                                                                      unsigned char cr;




                                                                                                            38
             unsigned long x;                                        -2 if words are okay but parity is wrong.
                                                                     (see etob() in S/Key)
   assert(length <= 11);                                       */
   assert(start >= 0);
   assert(length >= 0);                                     int eng2key(keyout,eng)
   assert(start +length <= 66);                             char *keyout,*eng;
             cl = s[start/8];
                                                               {
             cc = s[start/8 +1];
                                                                    int rc=0,state=1;
             cr = s[start/8 +2];
                                                                    char *eng2;
             x = ((long)(cl<<8 | cc) <<8 | cr) ;
             x = x >> (24 - (length + (start %8)));
                                                                    /* Find pointer to word 7. */
             x =( x & (0xffff >> (16-length) )   );
             return(x);                                             for (eng2 = eng; rc<7 && (*(++eng2) != '\0');
   }                                                           )
                                                                      if (*eng2 != ' ')
                                                                        {
Page 14                                                                   rc += state;
                                                                          state = 0;
                                                                        }
Appendix B - Source for 128-bit key to/from English words             else state=1;
(convert.c)
   /* convert.c -- Wrapper to S/Key binary-to-                      if ( (rc = etob(keyout,eng)) != 1)
   English routines.                                                  return rc;
         Daniel L. McDonald -- U. S. Naval
   Research Laboratory. */                                          rc = etob(keyout+8,eng2);

   #include <string.h>                                         return rc;
                                                               }
   /* eng2key() assumes words must be separated by             /* key2eng() assumes string referenced by
   spaces only.                                                   engout has at least 60 characters
   eng2key() returns                                              (4*12 + 11 spaces + '\0') of space.
                                                               key2eng() returns pointer to engout.
   1 if succeeded
   0 if word not in dictionary
       -1 if badly formed string
                                                            Page 15




                                                                                                                 39
    */
char *key2eng(engout,key)                                                  TUE 10/26/10       15-21-30-31-32-26

char *engout,*key;                                                         FOOTBALL Dallas is longit ude and latitude 96 47 32 47
    {
                                                                           and LOTTO number 15, 11, 32, 02, 26, 34 (p. 5) (p. 34)
         btoe(engout,key);
         strcat(engout," ");                                               a best match for    15-21-30-31-32-26
         btoe(engout+strlen(engout),key+8);
         return engout;
    }
                                                                           BASEBALL Baltimore is longitude latitude 76 37 39
The great est motivation for open-s ourc e programs from developer         19
programmer is “fun to solve problems.” Second is “sense of
                                                                           and LOTTO numbers 13, 37, 39, 19, 14, 22.
accomplishment”. Third is “paid to cont ribute”. Sourc e: Dr. Dobbs.
[“Q&A Why Coders Write Open Sourc e”, Informationweek.com, 1
Nov 2010, p. 73]

The play goes like this: choose two numbers from „1‟ to „20‟: like „20‟
„01‟ or „10‟ „10‟. This creates the RSA encryption password, like
„Hello world!‟ from a mat rix of three or four letter words: like

Pass1 Word1!
LA 2you1 runz3!
AB 1not0 many2!

LA O     U   1   2      3 Z
lAB N    T   0    1    2 Y
m 15 21 30 31 32 26
c 9 21 6 25 32 20

„not‟ „many‟ „you‟ („run‟ and „runs‟) are in the mat rix table. Number
fillers differ by „1‟; [2-1; 1-0; 3-2; „z‟ means „s‟. The message, m, is
the LOTTO number for longitude and latitude:




                                                                                                                                    40
                                                            0,1,0,0,0
Compare Dallas, TX with Atlanta, GA
Dallas, TX                                                  Total case count: 5

96 47 32 47 longitude latitude                                   Name                          Variable             N
                                                            Mean              StdDev
15, 11, 32, 02, 26, 34 LOTTO number                           Y                                     V1              5
                                                            0.400               0.894
Atlanta, GA 84 23 33 46 longitude latitude (p. 5)             C                                     V2              5
FOOTBALL                                                    1.200               0.447
                                                              X                                     V3              5
12, 23, 33, 10, 35, 07 LOTTO number                         2.000               4.472
                                                              Yhat                                  V4              5
19, 25, 35, 46, 53, 15 (4+6=10) (1+5=06)                    0.600               0.894
                                                              delta                                 V5              5
                                                            0.200               0.447
FRI 11/05/10   19, 25, 34, 46, 53, 15
DALLAS FOOTBALL
                                                            CORRELATIONS
BALTIMORE BASEBALL
                                                                                  V1      V2      V3           V4
ATLANTA FOOTBALL                                                                   Y       C       X         Yhat
                                                             C          V2    1.0000
SEAT GAIN IN US HOUSE BY STATE                               X          V3    1.0000 1.0000
                                                             Yhat       V4    0.8750 0.8750 0.8750
CHANGE IN IN-RUNNING ODDS                                    delta      V5   -0.2500 -0.2500 -0.2500      0.2500

15, 21, 30, 31, 32, 26 2 m3   +2 +1                 $117         -166           -.8
                                                                The data analysis was generated using MicrOsiris
13, 37, 39, 19, 14, 22 0 m3   +1                    $327       software, Version 10, Copyright 2010 from
                                                                 + 44           +.2
19, 25, 34, 46, 53, 15 0 m3   +1 +1                            www.microsiris.com.
                                                    $283 med ian + 00 range 210


Y,C,X,Yhat,delta
2,2,10,2,0                                                  Henc e, randomly ent ered passwords generat e RSA encry ption
0,1,0,1,1                                                   passwords which match geographical longitude and latitude derived




                                                                                                                            41
LOTTO numbers, whose mod 3 (0, 1, 2) are
entered into a regression model (Y, C, X, Yhat,
Delta) that derives correlations. The correlation
0.8750 between Yhat, V4, and V1, Y; V2, C; and V3,
X; is squared to obtain the proportion of variance
explained: 0.765625 or 77 percent of the variance.
The delta correlation -0.25 squared or 0.0625 or 6
percent of the variance. Total variance: sum of
the diagonals: +1, +1, +0.875, +.25 = 3.125. Since
three variables, each are 1.0, then remaining two
are .125 or 2 percent error. So the process of
entering in passwords creates data matches for
LOTTO numbers within regions where states gain US
House seats and FOOTBALL and BASEBALL geographical
locations for teams set IN-RUNNING ODDS. The model
then can estimate or predict odds from LOTTO
numbers.

The task is to write prototype in perl computer
language and small c programming language and
small assembler language such that correlations
are produced every eight seconds to estimate IN-
RUNNING ODDS to compare against MIDAS algorithms
in REAL-TIME. Matrices like those above are
computed from LOTTO number matches by REGION and
ODDS are calculated Y=X ; Y (0,1,2) mod 3; and X
(deviation from median divided by range. IN-
RUNNING ODDS from past eight seconds are entered
and compared in REAL-TIME, in a series of X
numbers (0, 1, 2, ... 10).

Squared correlations between Y and X should be 77
to 99 percent:
(.85 -.99 correlation). If the model does not
match MIDAS ODDS, include more cases in the model,
like five cases instead of three region cases.




                                                     42
Chapter II                                                          it will make you money.
Trading in running                                                  Let me know in ―leave a comment‖ what you think about the
by Thomas McClure                                                   system and anything you think can make it better. If anyone
                                                                    does a good amount of research and find out the average ―true
Here we will try to exploit the situation that appears when a       odds‖ after a goal is scored in any market, then PLEASE let me
goal is scored. When a goal is scored in a soccer match all         know.
unmatched bets are deleted so the market opens up again some        Remember you have to know what the odds was just when the
seconds after with no odds on offer. Within 1-2 seconds the         goal
odds offers will start to come up from different people reacting    was scored and what the new settled odds were 1-2 minutes
on the goal.                                                        after.
If you have followed the live market in a soccer match then
you will see that in 90% of the matches the odds on offer right     I used to have a manual formula for laying/backing the
after a goal has been scored is either too big or too small when    Draw when a goal was scored.
the market settles a minute or so after the goal.
Your mission is to be able to predict what the right odds are       Lay the Draw system explained (many different ve rsions
when a goal is scored. For instance if you think the right odds     available)
(that will come up when the market has settled down) is 2.40        1) You lay the draw in a soccer match (the match needs to go
Then you suddenly see some guy offer 3.1 - You hurry in and         in play)
back to odds 3.10. If you had done your home work and was           2) Eventually take insurance by backing 0-0
correct about the odds becoming 2.40 when the market settled        3) Back the draw when a goal has been scored and the draw
down you could lay to 2.40 and have a free bet or trade out for     odds hopefully are higher than what you layed it to. Now you
a guaranteed profit no matter what. You could of course also        have a green book where you win money no matter what.
put a bet into the market and hope for it to get matched and
then trade out.
You can do this on all of the different in-play soccer markets.     the draw does not go up so much in odds after a goal has been
                                                                    scored.
the only chance is RIGHT AFTER the goal and the minute
after until                                                         The problem arises then only when the under-dog scores first
things slow down and the odds does not change so much more.         since this mostly means that the odds on the draw falls
This is all I will say about this system. I hope that some of you   since people expect the favourite at least to score
guys will give it a go and add your own personal touch to it so     to get a draw.



                                                                                                                                   43
                                                                 If one of teams kicks a goal odds can rise to 4+.
Basically it is easy and simple. First step is to lay the draw
before the match and second is to place a back bet when one of   Assuming you laid the draw before the match,
teams scores. As example imagine two teams with odds of 2.6      now you can back the draw,
for team A, 3.5 For a Draw and 3.1 for Team B. If one of teams
kicks a goal odds can rise to 4+. Assuming you laid the draw     for example, on odds of 4.2
before the match, now you can back the draw,for example, on      and guarantee no lose and only profit scenario.
odds of 4.2 and guarantee no lose and only profit scenario.
                                                                 III    My simple system
1) Lay the draw
You need to choose a soccer match where you think a goal will    My simple system is the take the three ODDS {3.5, 3.1, 2.6} as
be scored. Chosen match should be without strict favourite.      {Y3, Y2, Y1} in sorted order {HI, MED, LO}. [Original order
Lay the draw.                                                    ODDS were {LO, HI, MED} X {2.6, 3.5, 3.1}]
2) Wait for a Goal and Back the Draw                             Subtract the MEDian from each, and divide by the range
Once goal is scored odds for Draw will go up. Back the draw      {Y3-Y1}. {(Y3-Y2), (Y2-Y2), (Y1-Y2)} .
and end up with all green(winnings on all results).              Add (Y3-Y2) +-(Y1-Y2) to get (Y3-Y1)/(Y3-Y1) = 1 ;
                                                                 {<+1,0,<-1) .
I      Introduction                                              [Transform X{2,1,0} in five variable model.]
                                                                 Now any set of ODDS is thus.
This paper see the BetFair system as a clone of Lay the draw.
It applies J Hook concept from Day trading to an economic
model
of five variables, which simplifies to a two factor model.       Back the draw makes you cover the bet; and you are yourself a
                                                                 bookmaker. The risks to you on a $2.00 bet have dropped from
II     Canada and USA unavailable.                               $7.00 (3.5 time $2) to almost zero. On ODDS of 4.2, your
                                                                 profit is .7 (4.2-3.5) times $2 or $1.40 - zero. Since the range is
Pity the BetFair system is unavailable in Canada and the USA.    one, you can adjust it from zero to ten, and compare it to the
                                                                 original order {2.6, 3.5, 3.1}.
As example imagine two soccer teams with odds of 2.6             This is a J Hook pattern. [Also called Bear Trap or Short
for team A, 3.5 For a Draw and 3.1 for Team B.                   Squeeze. See below.]




                                                                                                                                  44
IV     J Hook Pattern
                                                                  V        Conclusion
{LO, HI, MED} Suppose X were {2.0, 4.0, 3.0} rounded up
and down. {-2,0,-1} and adding 2 give X{0,2,1}. Taking in         A two factor model finds the hidden market: factor one is Y,
pairs: X and Yhat {0,0; 2,5; 1,10}                                and factor two is X.
                                                                  Y is actual order and X is sorted order. [Primary factor Y
Now applying the J Hook pattern or short squeeze by inserting     explains most of variance.]
a 0 into the median:
Yhat {0,0; 2,0; 1,10} That is, the HI, 10; MED, 0; LO, 0. J       Appendix
Hook 0-10-0.
                                                                  Have you ever felt that it's impossible to make good money from
                                                                  Betfair?
                                                                  Well, I'm here to tell you that it is possible - but only if you abandon
                                                                  everything you know and focus on a "hidden" Bet fair market.
Xhat=b1(1/10)*Yhat, where Yhat {0,0,10) and Xhat {0,0,1} ;        You're about to discover how you can clone my "hands-off" Betfair
X {0,2,1} - Xhat {0,0,1} is delta (X) {0,2,0}.                    formula, and designed specifically for B etfair.
                                                                  I finally found and fine tuned a Betfair system.
So choosing delta X {0,2,0}[transform resorted to Y               Prove it to yourself risk free - you can paper trade the system
                                                                  first to test it out and if you don't like it or it doesn't do everything we
{2,0,0}and Yhat resorted to {10,0,0}]. [J Hook] Enter into five   say it does you get your money back,
variable model, {Y,C,Yhat, X,delta (X-Y)}, where C (2,1,1) is
a control variable; X=C; C=b2(2/10)*Yhat; then
X=b2(2/10)*Yhat                                                   A system that fits in perfectly - you choose how you muc h
                                                                  you want to make and when.
Y,C,Yhat,X,delta                                                  A system that works because it takes advantage of a "hidden"
2,2,10,2,0                                                        market on Bet fair - you work the system for 10 minut es, and siphon
0,1,0,1,1                                                         off your daily tax-free profits. It's as simple as that.
0,1,0,0,0                                                         You need to forget everything you've heard about betting systems
                                                                  because I am about to expose a massive underexploited opportunity
*************************************************************     that is happening right now on Betfair - an opportunity so significant
************************                                          that it could enable you to earn a second income from home by
                                                                  copying an easy step-by-step blueprint... stay with me.. I'm about to
correlation (Y,X) .86; correlation (Y,delta) .25. Y primary       reveal it to you...
factor and X secondary factor.                                     The Secret to Betfair Success ..."
                                                                  - and so when I say I have discovered the




                                                                                                                                             45
ultimate Betfair opportunity, you should listen closely...               It still took me months, but eventually, through trial and error and
It doesn't matter whet her you're starting from scratch, or a seasoned   testing, testing,testing I discovered a complet e blueprint for profiting
Betfair Pro.                                                             from Betfair .
I know you will be shocked at how quickly the results flow once you
clone my proven system. I know this for a fact for one reason:           What I am about to present to you is the massive loop-hole in Betfair
experience...                                                            that I have discovered and The System I have perfected to exploit it.
Understand: my simple system breaks the mold and allows you to:          In the following pages, I'm going to let you in on my personal system
Profit easily - even if you have a day job with little time and even     for making a consistent second-income from betting on Betfair.
less capital to get started with.                                        I continued to work the system and quite honestly
Profit when you choose - bet with markets that are open during the       believed I knew everything there was to know about betting on
week end and weeknights too so you can work it around your day job.      Betfair.
Copy a proven Betfair formula                                            But then quite by chance I stumbled on a complet ely new discovery -
Follow a simple, step-by -step blueprint - a system developed            I was n't looking for it but it had been staring back at me from my pc
specifically.                                                            screen for quite some time... it suddenly hit like a bolt out of the
But first... Do any of the following make you feel angry, frustrated,    blue... so I decided to take some time to investigate.
stifled or just plain "held back"?                                       Betfair - The £5 Million / Day Goldmine...
You bought a betting system that promised the world and instant          Betfair launc hed in 2000 and is the largest betting exchange in the
riches but amounted to absolutely nothing                                world - it averages in excess of £ million trans actions daily. It's a
                                                                                                               5
You joined a betting or tipping service that wiped out your profits      personal betting exchange where you can plac e bets anonymously
with just one bad tip?                                                   with other people on anything from Big Brother to mainstream sports
You wondered whether you are ever going to profit with betting and       betting.
is it just all a scam where only the bookies profit?                     You get better odds than traditional bookmakers and you can bet
Be honest... does this describe you?                                     right up to the last minute as opposed to traditional bookies who
Well if any do then, you've arrived. You see...                          suspend betting far earlier than this in an event. And you don't have
I was once like you... I know first hand how you feel because it         to worry about Betfair closing your account if you have too many
happened to me and many times over. - and still got nowhere..            winners or spreading your bets across different bookies - because
Vulnerable...?                                                           Betfair makes their money from commissions so it's in their interest
You bet. I was tired and broke and trapped in a crappy, going            to keep your account 'live'.
nowhere job.                                                             Put plainly and simple, millions are traded on Betfair daily by the
I knew there had to be a way, I knew I should be making easy             'heavy hitters', the risk-takers and those with more money than
money.                                                                   sense and they are all betting in the highly competitive markets -
.                                                                        making them even more competitive which in turns means more
I studied the formulas for hours, scowering the internet for tips and    capital to get started and more high risk bets.
tricks and signing up to god knows how many forums.                      The question here is how can you keep up and compete every day if
I was sick, I was tired but I kept on returning to Betfair because I     you just don't have that kind of cash to throw around?
knew there was tons of money to be made if you knew what to do           And that's where my 'bolt out of the blue' and investigations led me...
and had the right system to follow.                                      ... And That 's Where BF Loophole Comes in




                                                                                                                                                 46
The First and Only System To Exploit a "little known" Market on           the hard work for you, and so you can learn from me quickly and
Betfair - that is low risk, has limited competition.                      easily. As long as you have internet access, you are good to go.
And as you'll see in a moment, this is definitely not an opportunity      Easy to understand. E verything is explained to you in plain and
for                                                                       simple language - no complicated techniques, tricks or jargon.
members of the 'get-rich-quick' brigade.                                  Because, frankly, my methods are so profitable, you just don't need
But, if you want to learn how to turn the 'game' of betting into a        them.
consistent, steady and profit able investment - then read on... and       Minimal start up capital required. Because of the sheer power of
take in every word of this letter very, very carefully.                   compounding, you can start with a very small bank and build it up
Skeptical? You should be...                                               from there as your daily profit increases.
You have every right to be...                                             Is the System easy to use?
I'm Not After Your Money                                                  We know you want to make extra cash, but you also want a system
Now I can say the days, weeks and months of failure are just a long       which is easy to follow and implement. We want you to have clear
distant painful memory for me. So you see I don't need your money.        step-by-step instructions so you spend as little time and fuss on your
So, do I have your attention now?                                         betting.
I hope so bec ause I advise you to listen to what I have to tell you      Will the System work any where in the world?
very carefully - you are only going to hear this from me, once and        Yes, I have devised the system so that it can be easily used from
only once....                                                             anywhere in the world, the only exception being the USA and
For a very limited number I am releasing my secret system.                Canada due to various betting laws.
"What I am about to pres ent to you is the formula for making a           And what about customer service?
consistent second income every day with Bet fair, using a twist that      All too often there's a 'take the money and run' attitude to these
any other guy's are safeguarding with their life - if they even know      systems. They say all the right things to get your money, but once
about it...                                                               you have the system they don't want to help you. Here, whatever
E ven if you have never placed a single bet in your life you will be on   your question you will always get a full and prompt reply. Our goal is
your way in less than 10 minutes with my secret formula...                to get you earning as quickly as possible.
You can do exactly the same, all you'll ne ed is a pc with internet       Can you make money while you're at work?
access.                                                                   So often a betting strategy is unworkable because you have to follow
How to place risk-free bets on the betting exchanges - so that no         and react to live information through the day - something that is
matter what happens, you are guaranteed to win. With this one trick,      almost impossible for most of us who work! With this system you will
the profits are astounding.                                               be using my unique never revealed before system that requires just
The definitive guide to beating the bookies.                              10 minut es a day.
Now with the advent of the betting exchanges you can do exactly the       Ok, how much money do I need to get started?
same! I'll show you how.                                                  Because I was once in your shoes, and know exactly where you are
Minimal effort and minimal time required. You don't need to do hours      right now, I devis ed my system for the average guy wanting to get
of painful research to make selections. In fact the entire process        started and profit quickly and easy with Betfair .
takes around 10 minutes per day so it will fit in perfectly with your     Will I easily learn how to use the system?
day job commitments.                                                      Yes, absolutely - the system is set out in a simple and easy step-
Absolutely no prior trading knowledge needed. I have already done         bystep




                                                                                                                                              47
format - just copy our instructions.                                        But I'm here to try and convince you or sell you ont o the system. Like
"So, why am I sharing the wealth when I                                     I said I don't want your money because I don't need it. But I am here
could easily keep all my profitable tips to myself?"                        to try and open your eyes and give you this once in a lifetime
Good question.                                                              opportunity to turn Betfair into a profitable, stable and consistent
I'll answer it with honesty.                                                income for you.
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bystep                                                                      [A. Elder A., Dr. Come Into My Trading Room: A Complete Gude to
for you but I want to save the best for those who take this                 Trading, c. 2002]
opportunity.                                                                AN INTELLIGENT TRADE R
Exactly How Much Is Betfair Success Worth To You?                           Traders make money by betting on short-term price swings. The idea
What would it mean for you to be able to make consistent profits            is to buy when our reading of the market tells us prices are rising and
from the get -go with a step-by-step betting system from day one?           sell when the upt rend runs out of steam. Alternatively, we can bet on
Would this juicy side-income give a helping hand in paying your             a decline and sell short when our analysis points to a downtrend,
credit cards, your bills, the extras in life?                               covering
Over the last few years, I've invested hundreds of hours not to             when the downtrend starts bottoming out. The concept is simple,
mention the thousands of pounds perfecting my craft, and when you           but implementing it is difficult.
consider how much you currently spend chasing the latest 'get-              It is hard to become a good analyst, but harder to become a good
richquick'                                                                  trader.
schemes you will clearly see what a saving this represents.




                                                                                                                                                 48
Beginners often assume they can make money because they 're                traders sell short when an upside breakout starts running out of
smart,                                                                     speed
computer-literate and have a record of success in business. You can        and cover when a downtrend starts petering out. Beginners love to
get a                                                                      trade against trends ("let's buy, this market can't go any lower!" ), but
fast computer and even buy a backtested system from a vendor, but          most get impaled on a price spike that fails to reverse. A man who
putting                                                                    likes
money on it is like trying to sit on a three-legged stool with two legs    peeing against the wind has no right to complain about his cleaning
missing. The two other factors are psychology and money                    bills. Professionals can trade against trends only because they are
management.                                                                ready
Balancing your mind is just as important as analyzing markets. Your        to run at the first sign of trouble. Before you bet on a reversal, be
personality influences your perceptions, making it a key aspect of         sure
your                                                                       your exit strategy and money management are fine-t uned.
success or failure. Managing money in your trading account is              Moment um traders and countertrend traders capitalize on two
essential                                                                  opposite
8 FINANCIA L TRA DING FOR BABES IN THE WOODS                               aspects of crowd behavior. Before you put on a trade, be sure to
for surviving the inevitable drawdowns and prospering in the long          know whether you're investing, momentum trading, or countert rend
run.                                                                       trading. Once you've ent ered a trade, manage it as planned! Don't
Psychology, market analysis, and money management--you have to             change your tactics in the midst of a trade bec ause then you'll
master                                                                     contribut e
all three to become a success.                                             to the winners ' welfare fund.
There are two main approaches to profiting from crowd behavior.            Amateurs keep thinking what trades to get into, while professionals
The                                                                        spend just as much time figuring out their exits. They also foc us on
first is momentum trading--buy when a ripple starts running through        money management, calculating what size positions they can afford
the                                                                        under current market conditions, whet her to py ramid, when to take
crowd, sending the market higher, and sell when that ripple starts         partial profits, and so on. They also spend a great deal of time
losing                                                                     keeping
speed. It is a challenge to identify a new trend while it's still young.   good records of their trades.
As
the trend speeds up and the crowd becomes exuberant, amateurs
fall in
                                                                           Bear Trap - Chart Reversal
love with their positions. Professionals remain calm and monitor the
trend's speed. As soon as they find that the crowd is returning to its
                                                                           Pattern
normal
sleepiness, they take profits without waiting for a reversal.
The other method is the countertrend strat egy. It involves betting
against the deviations and for a return to normalcy. Countert rend




                                                                                                                                                  49
50
51
Bear Trap                                                          Dead Cat Bounce
What Does Bear Trap Mean?                                          What Does Dead Cat Bounce Mean?
A false signal that the rising trend of a stock or index has       A temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market,
reversed when it has not.                                          after which the market continues to fall.

Investopedia explains Bear Trap                                    Investopedia explains Dead Cat Bounce
This can occur during a bear market reversal when short sellers    Ever heard the saying, "Even a dead cat will bounce if dropped
believe the markets will sink back to its declining ways. If the   from high enough!"?
market continues to rise, the short sellers get trapped and are
forced to cover their positions at higher prices.                  BetFair – Live Chat Session –
Short Squeeze                                                      Tuesday, January 27th, 2009
What Does Short Squeeze Mean?                                      Posted on January 31, 2009
A situation in which a lack of supply and an excess demand for     <http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/01/31/betfair- live-chat-
a traded stock forces the price upward.                            session-tuesday-january-27th-2009/> by Chris F. Masse
                                                                   <http://www.midasoracle.org/author/chris-masse/>
Investopedia explains Short Squeeze
Short squeezes occur more often in smaller cap stocks with         BetFair – Live Chat Session – Tuesday, January 27th, 2009
small floats.                                                      <http://site.forum.betfair.com/jive3/betex/ThreadsFrameset.jsp
                                                                   ?forumID=95&threadID=1810877> – [This link is only
If a stock starts to rise rapidly, the trend may continue to       available to the BetFair registered users, alas. In the future,
escalate because the short sellers will likely want out. For       BetFair should make the transcripts of all chat sessions
example, say a stock rises 15% in one day, those with short        available to the public at large, in my view.]
positions may be forced to liquidate and cover their position by
purchasing the stock. If enough short sellers buy back the         <http://site.forum.betfair.com/jive3/betex/ThreadsFrameset.jsp
stock, the price is pushed even higher.                            ?forumID=95&threadID=1810877>




                                                                                                                                 52
praf974                                                              But if the less favored team gets the first goal, the odds will go
27 Jan 18:35                                                         down.
Are there any plans to improve your Soccer inplay markets and        Lay on the draw between team A and team B means to bet on
the data published?                                                  the odds going up.

For instance adding score and minutes played into the main           If one bets on the odds going down, on the less favored team,
market display (and API). One of my major gripes is not being        going short, and
able to tell from betfair alone when the second half has kicked
off , The second half kickoff is just as important as the match      the odds go up, the short seller is squeezed to cover his short
kickoff which in contrast is highlighted by suspension of all        lay bet with a more costly back bet; it is getting more and more
markets and the inplay markets being flagged as inplay. An           costly the longer he waits, i. e. short squeeze.
inplay first half result and second half result would be good        This is an example of betting manipulation. If the odds are
(where the second half result doesnt go inplay until the second
                                                                     artificially depressed by hyping the favorite team, out of
half kicks off).
                                                                     proportion to its real strengths, or by masking the real strength
-                                                                    of the less favored team, then the gaining of the first goal tells
                                                                     the tale.
On a general point we are happy with the way we manage our           In the five variable economic model
soccer markets, but you raise an excellent point about the
second- half kick off.                                               Y,C,Yhat,X,delta
                                                                     2,2,10,2,0
We will raise this with the soccer team.                             0,1,0,1,1
                                                                     0,1,0,0,0
Assumptions
                                                                     First add eac h column:
At the start of soccer match play, the markets are stopped, the
                                                                     2,4,10,3,1
the inplay markets are flagged in-play, which means that the
time between kickoff and the first goal is critical.                 Second add row:

If the odds on favorite team gets the first goal, the odds will go   20=n
up.
                                                                     Subtract median each column:




                                                                                                                                      53
2,1,10,1,-1               -.5
0,0,0,0,0
0,0,0,-1,-1               Multiply in pairs 4,5
                          5*5 5*-1
Divide by column range    0
1,2,1,.5,-1               -1*-1 -1*-1
0,0,0,0,-1
0,0,0,-1,-1               Sum rows (no 5*5) (no -1*-1)
                          -5
Add column                0
1,2,1,-.5,-3              1

Add row                   Add in column
0.5=1.0 error             -4

Multiply in pairs 1,2-5   Multiply in pairs 5,5
1*1 1*2 1*1 1*.5 1*-1     -1*-1
0                         0
0                         -1*-1

Sum rows (no 1*1)         Add in column
2.5                       2.0

Multiply in pair 2, 3-5   Group sums
2*2 2*1 2*.5 2*-1         2.5 1.0 -.5 1.5 2. 0
0
0                         Add in row (no 2.0)
                          4.5
Sum rows (no 2*2)
1.0                       half matrix multiply by two [non-diagonals]
                          9.0
Multiply in pairs 3,4-5
1*1 1*.5 1*-1             Add 5 [1.0 in eac h diagonal]
0
0                         14 ; root [14]=3.7; root[28/2]>=root[3*9]*root[2]/2 = root(6)*(3/2) =
                          root(2.45*2.45)*(3/2) = 3.67
Sum rows (no 1*1)




                                                                                                  54
Take root
3.7                                         Place rows in matrix
                                            1.62    2.0    1.0        1.0     -1.0
Divide by two for half matrix divisor       2.0     . 81   2.0        1.0     -2.0
1.85                                        1.0     2.0    .96        1.0     -1.0
                                            1.0     1.0    1.0        1.08    -4.0
Add .5 to each Group sum (doubled to 1.0)   -1.0    -2.0   -1.0       -4.0    0.54

Group sums                                  Row divisors
2.5 1.0 -.5 1.5 [2.0]                       {1.27, .90, .98, 1.04, .73}

3.0 1.5 0 2.0 1.0                           FACTOR MA TRIX

                                            1.28    2.22     1.02     0.96    -1.37
Divide 1.85 into row (by root)              1.57    .90      2.04     0.96    -2.73
1.62 .81 0 1. 08 .54                        0.79    2.22     0.98     0.96    -1.37
                                            0.79    1.11     1.02     1.04    -5.48
Add in row                                  -0.79   -2.22-   1.02     -3.85   0.74
4.05
                                            Column divisors
Place diagonals                             {1.27, .90, .98, 1.04, .73}
1.62
     .81                                    COS INE MA TRIX
        0                                   (FACTOR CORRE LA TIONS )
          1.08
               .54                          1.0     2.46     1.04     0.92    -1.88
                                            1.24    1.0      2.08     0.92    -3.74
Place rows in matrix                        0.62    2.46     1.0      0.92    -1.88
1.62    1*2    1*1        1*.5    1*-1      0.62    1.23     1.04     1.0     –7.51
2.0     . 81   2*1        2*.5    2*-1      -0.62   -2.46    -1.04    -3.70   1.0
1.0     2.0     0         1*.5    1*-1
1.0     1.0    1.0        1.08    -4.0      COS INE MA TRIX REVISE D
-1.0    -2.0   -1.0       -4.0    0.54      .81    1.0    .5     .25          -.25
                                            1.0    .41    1.0    .25          -.50
Take half matrix with                       .5     1.0    .48    .25          -.25
Principal axes communalities                .5     .5     .5     .27          -1.0
And expand to full matrix                   -.5    -1.0   -.5    -1.0         .13




                                                                                      55
                                                                        C=Y; Yhat=0; Y= X – delta; Y=Y}
Revising off diagonals to 1.0                                           Henc e, The original order of soccer odds is a function of the sorted
By dividing by largest in column                                        order minus a delta (X-Y).

FACTOR MA TRIX REV ISED (*highest loaded)                               NOTES
1    2      3       4      5
0.82 *1.0   0.5     0.25   -0.25                                        This is the CENTROID met hod
*1.0 0.41   *1.0    0.25   -0.50                                        Of FACTOR ANALYS IS [with
 0.5 *1.0   0.48    0.25   -0.25                                        Replacement of 0 with .96 for
 0.5 0.5    0.5     0.27   *-1.0                                        Sum of diagonals to 5.0]
-0.5 *-1.0  -0.5    *-1.0  0.14
                                                                        Note 1.62 and 1.08 are Hey wood cases.
FACTOR 1 loads highest on VARIABLE 2; FACTOR 3 loads highest            Variable 1 is 1.62; Sum (4, 5) is 1.62.
on VARIABLE 2                                                           3*1.62= 4.86; .81+.96= 1.62+.15
FACTOR 1 and FACTOR 2 are correlated. FACTOR 2 and FACTOR
3 correlate negatively.                                                 The variance is evenly matched between
FACTOR 4 loads negative on VARIABLE 5 and FA CTOR 5 loads               Variable 1, variables(2,3) and variables(4,5),
negative on VARIABLE 4.                                                 Within .15 error (.2)
FACTOR 1 explains twice FACTOR 2; FACTOR 2 explains as
FACTOR 4 AND FACTOR 5 both.                                             The COSINE ME THOD of rotation of FA CTORS
FACTOR 3 explains as much as FACTOR 2 within error (.07).               Uses the root of the diagonals {1.62 .81 .96 1.08 .54}
                                                                        {1.27, .90, .98, 1.04, .73} as row divisors for factors
                                                                        and as column divis ors of factor loadings for cor related factors.
Variable 1,   Y, Original Order ODDS                                    Note that this is an OBLIQUE factor rotation method.
Variable 2,   C, Control Variable
Variable 3,   Yhat, Calculated ODDS                                            A Simp le Method for Rotating a Centroid Factor Matrix to a
Variable 4,   X, Sorted Order ODDS                                              Simp le Structure Hypothesis
Variable 5,   delta (X-Y) error                                                Paul Horst
                                                                               The Journal of Experimental Education
FACTOR ANALYS IS                                                                Vo l. 24, No. 4 (Jun., 1956), pp. 251-258
Variable 2, Control Variable influences Variable 1, Y, positively and           (article consists of 8 pages)
Variable 3, Yhat, negatively.                                                  Published by: Taylor & Francis, Ltd.
Variable 4 and Variable 5 influence eac h other negatively.                    Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20154010
Variable 2 explains as much as Variable 4 and Variable 5 together.
Variable 3 explains as much as Variable 2, and together, they
explain as much as Variable 1.
The model {Y = C -Yhat; C=(Y+Yhat); C= X - delta); delta=(X-Y );




                                                                                                                                                56
Chapter III
Box Odds
By Thomas McClure
I        Introduction
This paper uses numbers of balls and number of rolls as a drawing
of a labeled ball randomly in a mac hine that simulates such a
random selection. It applies this technique to soccer odds.


II        Rolls of die

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A man won in a bet that in 4 rolls of a die, he could get at least one
6.
However, he lost in a bet that in 24 rolls of two dice, he could get at
least a double 6.
Why [has] he lost the majority of the time when playing the second
game?


http://talkstats.com/showthread.php?t=690

 In 4 rolls of a die, the probability of getting at least one "6" is:

1 - (5/6)^4 = 1 - 0.482 = 0.518

In 24 rolls of two dice, the probability of getting at least one "12" is:

1 - (35/36)^24 = 1 - 0.509 = 0.491

which means he wins less than half of the time.

But what if he rolls 25 times?

In 25 rolls of two dice, the probability of getting at least one "6" is:




                                                                                   57
1 - (35/36)^25 = 1 - 0.4867 = 0.513                                         then drawing a ball at random, and putting it back, repeating it [4]
                                                                            times, and getting at least one "6"; than putting two balls labeled 1 to
III      Explanation                                                        2 and then drawing a ball at random [1] time. Throwing a die for at
                                                                            least one "6" is better than tossing a coin for at least one head.
                                                                            Throwing a pair of dice for [24] times then betting on one more roll
                                                                            [25], for at least one "12", is "a winning proposition".




"If you put six balls labeled 1 to 6 in a box and then draw a ball at
random,
you are, in effect, rolling a die. Drawing a ball, putting it back in the
box,
and drawing another ball is the same as rolling a pair of dice." (p. 22)
[M. Orkin. What are the Odds?, paper, c. 2000]

(p.20) "... 25 rolls ... a winning proposition."




"If you put two balls labeled 1 to 2 in a box ...
drawing a ball at random is the same as tossing a coin.
Drawing a ball at random, putting the selected ball back in the box,
drawing another ball, putting it back, doing this [1] time[s] is the same
as
tossing a coin [1] time[s]."

1 - (1/2)^1 = 1 - 0.5 = .500

Henc e, you are better off putting six balls labeled 1 to 6 in a box and




                                                                                                                                                  58
IV      A machine                                                         1-(1/2)^1 =   1 - .5                      0.500    [two balls; one roll]
                                                                          1-(2/3)^2 =   1 – 4/9 = 5/9 =             0.550    [three balls; two
Suppose building a machine that drops ping pong balls, labeled 1 to       rolls]
n, where n=1, 7, randomly.                                                1-(3/4)^3 =   1 – 27/64 = 37/64 =         0.578    [four balls; three
That is, they fall into a row of holes, smaller than the diameter of      rolls]
each ball, such that one ball will settle into one hole, after bouncing   1-(4/5)^4 =   1 – 16/25 ^2 =              0.590    [five balls; four rolls]
randomly about. The last hole, n (only enough holes for n balls) is       1-(5/6)^5 =   1 – 25/36 ^2 * 5/6 =        0.598    [six balls; five rolls]
read for a number. This is the same as drawing from a box one ball        1-(6/7)^6 =   1 – 36/49 ^3 = 1-0.396567 = 0.603    [seven balls; 6 rolls]
randomly. The chances (even money odds, what you risk in your bet,
you get in winnings) are as follows:                                      Now select 1 to 6 rolls by a random box selection, n=6 balls and take
                                                                          the odds. Suppose
                                                                          the series of odds is 0.590, 0.500, 0.578, 0.550, 0.603, 0.598. Would
                                                                          you bet short or long?

                                                                          V       Soccer odds

                                                                          Think of the in-running odds as a soccer match with odds at kick off
                                                                          first half at 0.590.
                                                                          The non-favorite soccer team has just scored a goal and the odds
                                                                          have dropped unexpectantly, 0.500; the rise to 0.578, then drop to
                                                                          0.550, then rise to 0.603, (favorite team scores a goal) and then drop
                                                                          to 0.598 (non-favorite team scores a second goal). Would you say
                                                                          offs are rising or lowering?

                                                                          The odds are acting like a future price quote, rising and the following:
                                                                          0.590, 0.500, 0.578; and 0.500, 0.578, 0.550; and
                                                                          0.578, 0.550, 0.603; and 0.550, 0.603, 0.598;
                                                                          are acting like J Hook Bear Traps Short Squeezes.




In-running odds




                                                                                                                                                  59
                                                                            -0.22/ 0.90= -7/ 3=    -2.34;
                                                                            Second
                                                                            0.578-0.550 = 0.28;
                                                                            0.500-0.550= -0.50;
                                                                            0.578-0.500= 0.78;
                                                                            0.28/0.78=             0.36;
                                                                            -0.50/ 0.78=           -0.64;
                                                                            Third
                                                                            0.603-0.578=0. 025;
                                                                            0.550-0.578= -0.028;
                                                                            0.603-0.550=0. 053;
                                                                            0.025/ 0.053=          0.47;
                                                                            -0.028/0.0530=         -0.52;




VI      Charting

That is, the false news of the mark et: it is dropping and its rising and
its dropping again and its rising again! Let us create indices, such
that HI – ME D, and LO- ME D are divided by the range HI-LO. The
MED is the medium of the three Odds.
First
0.590-0.578=0. 12;
0.500-0.578= -0.22;
0.590-0.500=0. 090;
0.12/0.90=4/3=            1.34;




                                                                                                            60
                                                                            information, computers are no match for human intelligence.
Fourt h
0.603-0.598=0. 005;
0.550-0.598= -0.048;
                                                                            Few challenges in computing loom larger than unraveling
0.603-0.550=0. 053;                                                         semantics, understanding the meaning of language. One reason
0.005/ 0.053=             0.094;                                            is that the meaning of words and phrases hinges not only on
-0.048/0.053=             -0.91;                                            their context, but also on background knowledge that humans
                                                                            learn over years, day after day.
VII     Conclusion
                                                                            Since the start of the year, a team of researchers at Carnegie
Each of the four has a range of 1.0 and a median of 0.0; tranform LO        Mellon University
to 0.0 and HI to 1.0 and ME D to 0.0, so that all of the four plot on the   <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizati
same chart. Hook is 0-1-0 for LO-HI-MED.                                    ons/c/carnegie_mellon_university/index.html?inline=nyt-org>
                                                                            — supported by grants from the Defense Advanced Research
Appendix
                                                                            Projects Agency <http://www.darpa.mil/> and Google
“Short Squeezes”                                                            <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/googl
“The Bulldozer Effect … when trader push prices … high enough to            e_inc/index.html?inline=nyt-org>, and tapping into a research
make short traders cover their positions.” (p. 113) [M.Fredfertig and       supercomputing cluster provided by Yahoo
G. West. The Electronic Day Trader, c. 1995]                                <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/yaho
“…inverster will do bet … who are just as willing to sell market short
                                                                            o_inc/index.html?inline=nyt-org> — has been fine-tuning a
as they are to go long.” (p. 2)                                             computer system that is trying to master semantics by learning
[J. M. Christian. Commodities Rising, c. 2006]                              more like a human. Its beating hardware heart is a sleek, silver-
                                                                            gray computer — calculating 24 hours a day, seven days a
“Being short … your goal is to make money when the price of the             week — that resides in a basement computer center at the
futures contract that you choose to short falls in price. … you just
post the approriate margin … you‟re interested in selling short .. you
                                                                            university, in Pittsburgh. The computer was primed by the
then offset the position by buying back the contract [to cover your         researchers with some basic knowledge in various categories
short sale].” (p. 59)                                                       and set loose on the Web with a mission to teach itself.
[J. Duarte. “Futures and Options for Dummies, paper, c. 2006]               ―For all the advances in computer science, we still don’t have a
                                                                            computer that can learn as humans do, cumulatively, over the
Give a computer a task that can be crisply defined — win at                 long term,‖ said the team’s leader, Tom M. Mitchell, a
chess, predict the weather — and the machine bests humans                   computer scientist and chairman of the machine learning
nearly every time. Yet when problems are nuanced or                         department.
ambiguous, or require combining varied sources of                           The Never-Ending Language Learning system



                                                                                                                                           61
<http://rtw.ml.cmu.edu/rtw/>, or NELL, has made an                 <http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/62493/Sir-Tim-
impressive showing so far. NELL scans hundreds of millions         Berners-Lee>, who invented the underlying software for the
of Web pages for text patterns that it uses to learn facts,        World Wide Web, sketched his vision of a ―semantic Web.‖
390,000 to date, with an estimated accuracy of 87 percent.         Today, ever- faster computers, an explosion of Web data and
These facts are grouped into semantic categories — cities,         improved software techniques are opening the door to rapid
companies, sports teams, actors, universities, plants and 274      progress. Scientists at universities, government labs, Google,
others. The category facts are things like ―San Francisco is a     Microsoft
city‖ and ―sunflower is a plant.‖                                  <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/micro
NELL also learns facts that are relations between members of       soft_corporation/index.html?inline=nyt-org>, I.B.M.
two categories. For example, Peyton Manning                        <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/intern
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/     ational_business_machines/index.html?inline=nyt-org> and
peyton_manning/index.html?inline=nyt-per> is a football            elsewhere are pursuing breakthroughs, along somewhat
player (category). The Indianapolis Colts is a football team       different paths.
(category). By scanning text patterns, NELL can infer with a       For example, I.B.M.’s ―question answering‖ machine, Watson,
high probability that Peyton Manning plays for the Indianapolis    shows remarkable semantic understanding in fields like history,
Colts — even if it has never read that Mr. Manning plays for       literature and sports as it plays the quiz show ―Jeopardy!‖
the Colts. ―Plays for‖ is a relation, and there are 280 kinds of   Google Squared, a research project at the Internet search giant,
relations. The number of categories and relations has more than    demonstrates ample grasp of semantic categories as it finds and
doubled since earlier this year, and will steadily expand.         presents information from around the Web on search topics
The learned facts are continuously added to NELL’s growing         like ―U.S. presidents‖ and ―cheeses.‖
database, which the researchers call a ―knowledge base.‖ A         Still, artificial intelligence experts agree that the Carnegie
larger pool of facts, Dr. Mitchell says, will help refine NELL’s   Mellon approach is innovative. Many semantic learning
learning algorithms so that it finds facts on the Web more         systems, they note, are more passive learners, largely hand-
accurately and more efficiently over time.                         crafted by human programmers, while NELL is highly
NELL is one project in a widening field of research and            automated <http://rtw.ml.cmu.edu/papers/carlson-aaai10.pdf>.
investment aimed at enabling computers to better understand        ―What’s exciting and significant about it is the continuous
the meaning of language. Many of these efforts tap the Web as      learning, as if NELL is exercising curiosity on its own, with
a rich trove of text to assemble structured ontologies — formal    little human help,‖ said Oren Etzioni, a computer scientist at
descriptions of concepts and relationships — to help computers     the University of Washington
mimic human understanding. The ideal has been discussed for        <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizati
years, and more than a decade ago Sir Tim Berners-Lee              ons/u/university_of_washington/index.html?inline=nyt-org>,



                                                                                                                                 62
who leads a project called TextRunner, which reads the Web to       NELL, Dr. Mitchell explains, is designed to be able to grapple
extract facts.                                                      with words in different contexts, by deploying a hierarchy of
Computers that understand language, experts say, promise a          rules to resolve ambiguity. This kind of nuanced judgment
big payoff someday. The potential applications range from           tends to flummox computers. ―But as it turns out, a system like
smarter search (supplying natural- language answers to search       this works much better if you force it to learn many things,
queries, not just links to Web pages) to virtual personal           hundreds at once,‖ he said.
assistants that can reply to questions in specific disciplines or   For example, the text-phrase structure ―I climbed XXX‖ very
activities like health, education, travel and shopping.             often occurs with a mountain. But when NELL reads, ―I
―The technology is really maturing, and will increasingly be        climbed stairs,‖ it has previously learned with great certainty
used to gain understanding,‖ said Alfred Spector, vice              that ―stairs‖ belongs to the category ―building part.‖ ―It self-
president of research for Google. ―We’re on the verge now in        corrects when it has more information, as it learns more,‖ Dr.
this semantic world.‖                                               Mitchell explained.
With NELL, the researchers built a base of knowledge, seeding       NELL, he says, is just getting under way, and its growing
each kind of category or relation with 10 to 15 examples that       knowledge base of facts and relations is intended as a
are true. In the category for emotions, for example: ―Anger is      foundation for improving machine intelligence. Dr. Mitchell
an emotion.‖ ―Bliss is an emotion.‖ And about a dozen more.         offers an example of the kind of knowledge NELL cannot
                                                                    manage today, but may someday. Take two similar sentences,
                                                                    he said. ―The girl caught the butterfly with the spots.‖ And,
                                                                    ―The girl caught the butterfly with the net.‖
                                                                    A human reader, he noted, inherently understands that girls
Then NELL gets to work. Its tools include programs that             hold nets, and girls are not usually spotted. So, in the first
extract and classify text phrases from the Web, programs that       sentence, ―spots‖ is associated with ―butterfly,‖ and in the
look for patterns and correlations, and programs that learn         second, ―net‖ with ―girl.‖
rules. For example, when the computer system reads the phrase       ―That’s obvious to a person, but it’s not obvious to a
―Pikes Peak,‖ it studies the structure — two words, each            computer,‖ Dr. Mitchell said. ―So much of human language is
beginning with a capital letter, and the last word is Peak. That    background knowledge, knowledge accumulated over time.
structure alone might make it probable that Pikes Peak is a         That’s where NELL is headed, and the challenge is how to get
mountain. But NELL also reads in several ways. It will mine         that knowledge.‖
for text phrases that surround Pikes Peak and similar noun          A helping hand from humans, occasionally, will be part of the
phrases repeatedly. For example, ―I climbed XXX.‖                   answer. For the first six months, NELL ran unassisted. But the
                                                                    research team noticed that while it did well with most



                                                                                                                                  63
categories and relations, its accuracy on about one-fourth of        Explosive
them trailed well behind. Starting in June, the researchers          System He Uses to Make Over $70,000 E very Week Betting On
                                                                     Sports!
began scanning each category and relation for about five             (No S ports Knowledge Or Betting Experience Needed!)
minutes every two weeks. When they find blatant errors, they
label and correct them, putting NELL’s learning engine back          Real RESULTS! Check out the results from just one of my
on track.                                                            Sportsbook accounts... Last month in November 2010 alone I've
When Dr. Mitchell scanned the ―baked goods‖ category                 banked in $185,819.80 in earth-shattering winning profits from my
                                                                     online sportsbook. Look !
recently, he noticed a clear pattern. NELL was at first quite
accurate, easily identifying all kinds of pies, breads, cakes and
cookies as baked goods. But things went awry after NELL’s
noun-phrase classifier decided ―Internet cookies‖ was a baked        Did I get your attention yet? Hold on, it gets even better!
good. (Its database related to baked goods or the Internet           Scroll down further to see how my unbeatable sports betting system
                                                                     has made me more than $100,000 over just 3 short days this year!
apparently lacked the knowledge to correct the mistake.)             From: "The Sports Betting Champ" John Morrison
NELL had read the sentence ―I deleted my Internet cookies.‖
So when it read ―I deleted my files,‖ it decided ―files‖ was
probably a baked good, too. ―It started this whole avalanche of      My friend,
mistakes,‖ Dr. Mitchell said. He corrected the Internet cookies
                                                                     Check out the astonishing winning run of my unbeatable betting
error and restarted NELL’s bakery education.                         system over the last 2 years !
His ideal, Dr. Mitchell said, was a computer system that could
learn continuously with no need for human assistance. ―We’re         Current 2010-11 NBA seas on as of 12/11/2010 : 11 wins - 0 Losses
not there yet,‖ he said. ―But you and I don’t learn in isolation     2010 MLB season: 42 wins - 1 Loss
either.‖                                                             2009-10 NBA season: 63 wins - 0 Losses
                                                                     2009 MLB season: 49 wins - 0 Losses
                                                                     2008-09 NBA season: 79 wins - 0 Losses

                                                                     2007-08 NBA basketball season: 80 wins - 1 Loss
"Discover How You Can INS TANTLY                                     2008 MLB baseball seas on: 43 wins - 0 Losses
Win 97% Of Your Sports Bets Using
My Proven Sports Betting System!"
                                                                     My name is John Morrison and I am a celebrated Ivy League
                                                                     graduate from Cornell University with a PhD degree in statistics. On
                                                                     the side, I‟m a fanatical sports enthusiast who has practically never
Finally... Cornell University PhD Graduate Spills the Beans on the   missed the big game.




                                                                                                                                         64
Years back I found the perfect hobby to combine both my lifelong          Here's a sneak peak at how I spend my typical day:
passions of sports and statistics in the fascinating world of sports
betting. Over the last 10 years I‟ve spent untold hours exhaustively       With an obnoxious smiley grin , place a sure-fire bet that falls under
researching the sporting database in an as piring pursuit to develop      betting criteria of my foolproof system:
the ultimate foolproof sports betting system.

At long last my years of extensive research finally culminated in one
of the most miraculous breakthroughs ever achieved in a sports            Laugh hysterically as my team humiliates its sorry foe:
betting program when...

"I finally Cracked the code to a mind -
blowing NBA and MLB sports betting system"                                 Leisurely stroll out to my $350,000 personal "SportsBettingChamp"
                                                                          Lamborghini (paid for by them winnings !)
I wish I could have just 10 minutes to personally sit down wit h you,
face-to-face, and explain to you why the current NBA and MLB
seasons, as well as all the seasons thereafter, hold an absolute
goldmine of an opportunity for you to make all the job-crushing            Locking eyes and wave at all the fine ladies along the way before
income you could ever possibly wish for!                                  arriving to the sportsbook!

Whether you're a die-hard gambler, a sports enthusiast, or even
someone who despises betting and hates sports but just simply
wants to money-pile a mountain of extra cash every day doing the          Come in and collect $19,090.90 in cold, hard, badass cash
easiest and simplest job in the world, then you're about to fall head -   winnings !
over-heels in love with what I'm about to tell you!

Several times each week, I‟d place bets on the particular teams that
I‟ve statistically calculated to have exceptionally high chances of       Repeat over again at step#1.
betting success. Each bet routinely pulls in over $10,000 into my
account. Not bad for a 5-minute job!                                      Shhhh...promise you'll only keep this between us: On the very same
                                                                          day I also won another $22,425.00 at my online sportsbook with 2
                                                                          more wagers under the system:



                                                                          That's a grand smashing total of $19,090.90 + $11,500.00 +
                                                                          $11,640.00 = $41,230.90 in winnings that I've stockpiled in just one




                                                                                                                                                65
single day !                                                                Just imagine, your entire 5-minute "work" process each day is as
                                                                            simple as:
How does making over $40,000.00 in a day for doing basically
nothing sound to you?                                                        Check your email for my picks (or determine the picks yourself
                                                                            following the system's picking guidelines)
Want to see more?
Day Wager Made Winning Final Score :)                                        Log into the sportsbook website, and throw your bets out there
Day 1
Day 2                                                                        Lay back and watch the floods of winnings come pouring in!
Day 3

Winnings at my online sportsbook
during the same period (July 9th-11th):                                     Are You Serious About Sports Betting?

That's $112,359.07 in bank-breaking winnings that I've amassed
over just 3 days betting on sports using my proven sports betting           Before we go any further, go ahead and sign up for my exclusive
system!                                                                     newsletter below. Discover my personal top -secret sports betting
                                                                            tips, and how to avoid the same critical mistakes why 96% of bettors
How does making more than $100,000.00 over just 3 short days for            fail!
barely lifting a finger sound to you? Have I gotten your attention yet !

How would you feel to witness massive cash windfalls like this and
more surging straight into your bank account every day as the sports
games are played!?                                                          Why should you consider sports betting as a practical money -making
"Just imagine for a second what it would                                    opportunity? Like me, you've probably heard of sports betting, and
be if YOU can have this kind of a lifestyle!"                               how the pull of gambling may have washed away some people's
                                                                            fortunes...

Now, what if I tell you that you're just one heart beat away from being     But sports betting can also be massively lucrative and rewarding to a
able to explode your income doing everything I can and more -               sharp bettor...allowing you to create an extraordinary income...in far
starting as early as tonight!?                                              less time than what you could ever dreamed possible!

And you won't even have to leave home for it ! I'll int roduce you to the   You see, all casino executives always tend to neglect sports books
very best online sportsbook where you can place your bets in the            because taking bets on athletic events is a risky proposition to the
fireside comfort of your own bedroom from anywhere around the               casino. They like their gamblers to play slots, craps, etc. because a
world and blast-off your income as you sleep, vac ation, and eat !          favorable outcome for the house is literally guaranteed. When it
                                                                            comes to sports betting, the res ult of an athletic event is something




                                                                                                                                                     66
they have no control over. A sharp sports bettor can win far more by        Mark Roberts, CEO and founder of the online sportsbook
intelligently betting on sports than any other form of gambling in          BetJoint.com, wrote me this letter below after his company went
existence!                                                                  completely bankrupt becaus e of the Sports Betting Champ system
                                                                            players who kept winning tens of thous ands from his sportsbook
Imagine if there was a simple, template -driven, dummy-proof way to         every single week over a 2-year period! Since then, Mark Roberts
profit on sports...A money-making tactic so revolutionary yet so            has bought the Sports Betting Champ membership himself and bets
stupid-simple that a complet e sports and betting newbie could use it       with it every single day. He swears to its incredible success in the
to bank tens of thousands in rocket-fire winning profits in just a few      letter below:
short weeks for barely lifting any finger...

Well, the wait is over.
Renegade Betting Millionaire Finally Unleashes
The World's Unbeatable Sports Betting System!
I've been sitting on this nasty little discovery for the last 5 years,
before finally releasing the beast onto an unsuspecting market. Over
that time, I've netted a cool $2.7 Million in winning profits with my       The more success I had with my betting system, the more I felt the
sports betting bonanza.                                                     urge to share my remarkable experience. The greatest secret of
                                                                            betting profiteering struck me one day after years of scrupulous
It's a hardcore, cash-pulling money siphon betting system so                research.
magical, it's almost immoral! I've used it to raid the sportsbooks for
gains of $1,000, $10,000, to $40,000 and more each day!                     When I first saw the system's incredible results it has produced over
                                                                            the decades, I literally could not believe my eyes. The moment I
You have the reach-for-the-stars opportunity today to cash in on the        pulled the trigger, I made my first $1,000 overnight at the click of a
most incredible betting secrets ever. A money-making betting system         button as the sports games were played!
so revolutionary, it could forever change the way gambling is
defined! But first let me tell you - I thoroughly despise any hype that‟s   So there I was, pondering over the others who are still beating their
blown up beyond its rational proportions, but...                            heads against the wall, trying to figure out how in the world to make
                                                                            REAL money... and all it took for me to swell up my wallet by a
I'm not putting on any sugarcoats (and you'll soon understand!) when        THOUSAND fat dollar bills in one day was just a simple click of a
I pledge that my monster sports betting system is truly unmatched in        button to bet on my favorite sports team... Are you ****in' kidding
its winnings. The shocking truth will surprise you just as much as it       me??
surprised me on how successful it has become. I win over 97% of
the sports bets I plac e, and                                               It‟s almost too good to be true… even for me to believe!

"I've stockpiled a mountain of unthinkable                                  And then it happened again the next day...then again...and again. I
fortunes over the years betting on sports!"                                 could not contain my joy when I began pulling in $10,000 and more
                                                                            per bet day after day as I was kicking back, eating, and partying as




                                                                                                                                                   67
sports were play ed! I was making more money in a few days than               same profit-packed waves of betting triumph has arrived. Become
what most others I knew made in years...and all that for spending             the top 1% of sports betting wealth-seekers with my gilt-edged profit
just 5 minutes a day betting under my fail-safe, rapid-cash-grab              betting system that won't ever have you waste a second of your time
betting system!                                                               or a drop of your energy. This is one whole enchilada of sports
                                                                              betting systems you should make as top priority to snatch it right out
I practically skyrocketed my bankroll in a few weeks, and over the            of my hands before the sportsbooks begin raising their own
course of the next several years, turned my ingenious discovery into          eyebrows !
a sadistic cash generating mac hine. It 's the next best thing to a
written licens e for printing money !


.                                                                             I was an engineer at a high profile company until sports betting
                                                                              literally spoon-fed me with piles of job-ending cash. Once you
                                                                              discover my incredible insider betting method, nothi ng on the planet
                                                                              will become as easy and simple to make such jaw -dropping amounts
                                                                              of earnings hands-free for so little time spent--regardless of your
                                                                              budget, regardless of your location, regardless of your knowledge or
                                                                              experience level!
"It's taken me over a decade of exhaustive
research to finally crack open the cryptic                                    The kind of sports betting fortune you're about to get your hands on
combination to the master lock of betting profits..."                         are typically only ever seen by the upper echelons of sports betting
                                                                              fat cat gurus who have ran across their own lucky charms through
...But today marks the release of my groundbreaking system that's             decades of betting struggles. Get onboard with me, and you can take
about to bust a multi-billion dollar gambling industry wide open for a        the shortcut to sports betting prosperity -- even if you're the greenest
time-limited number of betting wealth profiteers!                             of beginners who can't tell the difference between a baseball and a
                                                                              basketball!
As long as you know how to count, you could start reeling in a world -
shattering income from home with my red-hot sports betting system
starting as early as tonight!

Give your sports betting ventures a shot of steroids with my devilishly
simple, yet totally revolutionary, profit-yielding betting system that will
have you "pick-pocketing" the sportsbooks and start cascading
instant cash into your bank account like it's your own personal wealth        "Imagine...In less time than it takes for you to eat dinner, you, the
fountain!                                                                     average Joe, can discover the explosive secrets of my unbeatable
                                                                              sports betting system and catapult yourself to untold winnings for
Your golden opportunity to at last jump onboard and ride the my               life!"




                                                                                                                                                      68
                                                                            most is that to make money doing something you want to do has
                                                                            never normally been a quick or easy or pat h...
My thriving betting system leaves nothing to chance. The first few
wagers were made just to "paper-trade" the ingenuity of the system.         But what qualifications does it take for any average Joe to pick
After witnessing first-hand the lustrous streams of heart-pounding          winners in sports? Ironically - there are none! The industry is set up
profits pouring into my betting account after every bet...I began to        so that anyone with a $10 bill can smack money down on a wager in
turbo-charge all of my wagers beyond all recognition...                     any sporting event, and immediately double his fortune by the end of
                                                                            the game without any ounce of work involved!
Within just a few short weeks, all hell has brok en loos e. Yes - I was
systematically harvesting the sportsbooks to the tune of $10,000 a          E ven a blind monkey can randomly pick 50% winners in sports and
day! Since day 1 of putting my smash-hit system to the test, I‟ve           break even. If you're smarter than a blind monkey, then you can
banked in over $2.7 Million from my on -the-side hobby -- All while         make money betting on sports! Sec ure your investment in my
the bookmakers stood by and helplessly watched as my account                unbreakable sports betting system today and you can instantly begin
balance ballooned from scratch into one of the richest betting banks        arming yours elf with a doctor's salary, without any years of
in gambling history!                                                        education, training, or any hours of your time on the job - starting as
                                                                            early as tonight!
Whether you love sports and betting or just an regular grass -root,
average Joe looking to mak e extra cash, this is just a tiny inkling of     My cutting-edge sports betting system applies to the NBA
the astounding success you can expect to achieve at click-button            (basketball) and the MLB (baseball). Sure, there are numerous
convenience with my suck-the-bookies-dry betting system over the            sporting leagues under the sun, but my studies have never shown a
coming years!                                                               consistent winning formula for most of these ot her leagues.

                                                                            Yet, my state-of-the-art betting systems for NBA basketball and MLB
                                                                            baseball aren't just only consistent, they have exceeded every one of
                                                                            my wildest expectations for a dependable winning formula. Anyone
                                                                            can promise to make you money, but the proof is only in the results.
Money isn't always quick or easy to come by. If you dream to be a           My impeccable betting record is a shining testament to just how
detective, the reality (at least where I'm from) is that you don't get to   incredibly powerful the system really is!
solve cases until you've complet ed 12 long years of school, four
more years of college, graduat e 30 weeks of police academy, and            Take a look at my incredible win-loss betting
serve honorably for two or more years on the force...                       record over the last 6 NBA and MLB seasons:
                                                                            NBA Basketball:
If you want to be a doctor, you don't get licensed to treat patients        2004-05 season: 68 wins – 2 Losses
unless you excel in school, graduate 4 years of university, pass            2005-06 season: 71 wins – 3 Losses
countless exams, finish years of medical school, and complet e even         2006-07 season: 66 wins – 2 Losses
more years of residency training! Sure, your requirements may be a          2007-08 season: 80 wins - 1 Loss
little different depending on where you're from, but the reality for        2008-09 NBA season: 79 wins - 0 Losses




                                                                                                                                                 69
2009-10 NBA season: 63 wins - 0 Losses
Current 2010-11 NBA seas on as of 12/11/2010 : 11 wins - 0 Losses

MLB Baseball:
2004 season: 33 wins – 0 Losses
2005 season: 39 wins – 0 Losses
2006 season: 66 wins – 1 Loss
2007 season: 35 wins - 0 Loss
2008 season: 43 wins - 0 Losses                                          Here's what you can expect from my
2009 MLB season: 49 wins - 0 Losses                                      one-of-a-kind sports betting system
2010 MLB season: 42 wins - 1 Loss
                                                                         My burning-hot betting system has nothing to do with progressive
                                                                         betting, arbitrage, betting on both sides of the line or any of such
No, you won't need to be a math genius or a statistics guru. In fact,    rubbish gimmicks
as long as you're at least 9 and know how to count, you can               You'll be making honest-to-goodness straight wagers
transform int o one of the most accurate and profitable bettors in the    Win between 97% -100% on all your bets
world starting as early as tonight -- even if you know diddly-squat       A few minutes a day is all you need
about betting or sports!                                                  How to get 55% bonus on your first deposit into a major online
                                                                         sportsbook. This is SportBettingChamp.com's exclusive offer!
Just imagine what YOU can do wit h a fool-proof betting system that       You need zero betting experience
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you've ever been!                                                         You need zero technical and computer skills
                                                                          My lifetime of picks emailed to you at no cost!
Look at my 7-day betting performance from                                 Only a tiny investment is needed
just the one of the online sportsbooks I use:                             Betting method is complet ely ethical and legal
                                                                          System never needs to be replaced, never needs to be updated,
                                                                         and never to fail!
That's a whopping $64,570.27 I've been paid in the last week from         You can do this from any part of the world
my winnings - off of a 6-0 record! This is the kind of oven-fresh         Unlimited one-on-one first-class support
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                                                                         Convinced Guarantee:" If my unrivaled betting system doesn't bring
                                                                         in the wildest winning profits you can ever possibly imagine,
                                                                         regardless of your knowledge in sports or betting experience, then I
                                                                         will refund your purchase price in full. No ifs. No ands. No buts. No
                                                                         games. No hard feelings. No questions asked!




                                                                                                                                             70
                                                                           bankroll into the envy of the town!

Plus: Free participation in my Million-Dollar "My System Won't Fail"
Challenge:
                                                                           You'll discover that under my second-to-none winning system, sports
Once you've accessed my tried-and-true sports betting system, and          betting will become the best investment you can ever make with your
for any oddball reas on, or even for no reason at all you're not fully     money.
convinced that my bullet -proof sports betting system is the meanest
cash-generating machine in the gambling world, then I dare you to          There are a number of people out there making good livings from
take my challenge:                                                         sports betting. There are people making tens of dollars per day.
                                                                           Some make several hundreds of dollars per day, and in a few rare
                                                                           cases, such as myself, a hell of a lot more, every single day!

                                                                           I've milked the sportsbooks for several thousands of dollars each
                                                                           day, and now I'm here to divulge to you the same golden secret
                                                                           formula that has spring-boarded me from clueless gambler to one of
                                                                           the world's most illustrious winning bettors!

Under my system, you won‟t be betting on every single game. Those          Put your investment into the Holy Grail of sports betting systems
who wager at every opport unity are just only p ressing their luck...and   today and open up a whole new realm of incredible possibilities to
that eventually always runs out, sooner or later! There won't be risks,    further enrich your treasure chest in ways you wouldn't have ever
chances, or luck with my system.                                           imagined!

With my shocking secrets on hand, you‟ll only be betting on                "You've over-delivered on your promise!... To anybody looking at the
particular games where the system has calculated to have                   system, and
exceptionally high chances of sure-fire success.                           wondering if they should- I'd say stop reading the testimonials, and
                                                                           become one of them. E very day you're not using the system, you're
It has nothing to do with betting on huge favorites or heavy               losing money!" - Nick of Jamaica
underdogs. The system will take into consideration a number of
subtle yet startling factors and circumstanc es surrounding each
game, and determine which of them will have an exceptionally high
probability of success based on those criteria.

"Out of every 50 bets you place, you                                       E very day, my mailbox is flooded with success
can expect to win about 49 out them!"                                      stories from people just like you. Here's another one:
There are several thousands of games played every season -- that 's
an abundanc e of golden opportunities for you to skyrocket your




                                                                                                                                                71
                                                                          hitting income that most can only fantasize about...
Click here to view a full list of thousands of sworn testimonials!
                                                                          Many years ago, I graduated with my doctorate degree in statistics,
                                                                          and for seven years I spilled my heart out with tireless 50-hour
"No sports betting experienc e needed.                                    work weeks as an engineer. I proudly fired my own boss years ago
I will hold you by the hands and guide                                    when I discovered that I was pulling in more income from sports
you step-by-step on exactly what to do!"                                  betting than I did at my fulltime job. The best part of it all was that I
Don‟t worry about any sports betting experienc e, because you won‟t       never even had to leave home!
need any.
                                                                          Now, you too can begin leading the same stress-free path that I do,
With my blockbuster system, regardless if you're a mom who has            by quickly and easily transforming your computer into an instant
never sat through a single sports game in your life, you're going to      money making machine to create cash on demand for you everyday
wake up tomorrow as one of the world‟s most precise sports                as the sports games are played!
forecasters !

Or you may have never placed a single wager in your life. Hell, you
may even be the type who pucker your brows and gnash your teeth
in disgust whenever the term "betting" is mentioned...fine, that's fair
enough...
                                                                          As one of the highest grossing bettors ever, I've been granted an
But as long as you like to fill up your pockets to the brim with stacks   exclusive 55% bonus deposit promotional co de that you can use to
of newfound cash everyday doing the world's easiest job, then my          earn an unheard-of 55% monster bonus on your first deposit at a
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hungry, take-no-prisoners, winningest bettor in town!
                                                                          Let me put that in numbers for you: With a $5,000 deposit, you'll
Where you live is the least of any worries. Regardless of where           instantly make two thousand, seven hundred fifty dollars for zero
you're located in the world, or whatever walks of life you may be         work involved! That's how much income a well -off pers on usually
under, you too, can apply my proven techniques and unlock the             gathers in a month's worth of back-breaking work that you've just
power of this pioneering sports betting system to create the fortune      pocketed for less time than it takes to toast your bread!
you've always dreamed about !
                                                                          Now, of course you don't have to deposit that much in order to get
I‟ll be guiding you through the entire process of opening your own        started. You can fund your account even if all you have is $1,000, or
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                                                                                                                                                  72
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                                                                                                                                                  73
performance to achieve?                                                      betting system that will have you rob the bookies blind, kick them
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I mean really...what kind of a value can you honestly put on a radical




                                                                                                                                                   74
Okay, let me cast aside all doubts with an improbable worst-case
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                                                                          the massive fort une-making pot ential of




                                                                                                                                                   75
my job-killing betting system..."                                           "No Ifs, Ands, or Buts Personal Guarantee"
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                                                                                                                                                   76
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                                                                                                                                                         77
The very moment you access my betting system after your purc hase,             boldest guarantee in the industry: This sale won't be considered final
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                                                                                                                                                79
Chapter IV                                                   Y-Yhat = X-Xhat
Factor Matrix Revised Strategy                               Ysubi = Xsubi

By Thomas McClure                                            Reproduced Correlation Matrix on V3
I     Introduction
This paper is written to revised a Factor Matrix             .48*.48      0.23
strategy of soccer betting ODDS at Team Kick-Off.            .48*.5       0.24
                                                             .48*-.5      -.24
FACTOR          MATRIX           REVISED         (*highest      loaded)
1Y              2C               3 Yhat          4X             5 delta=(X-Y)
                                                             .5*.5        0.25
0.82            *1.0             0.5             0.25           -0.25
                                                             .5*-.5       -.25
*1.0            0.41             *1.0            0.25           -0.50
0.5             *1.0             0.48            0.25           -0.25
                                                             -.5*-.5      0.25
0.5             0.5              0.5             0.27           *-1.0
-0.5            *-1.0            -0.5            *-1.0          0.14

This matrix is the same as the cosine factor
correlations matrix for Variables 1 to 5. If we take only
Variables 3 to 5, Yhat, X, and delta=(X-Y), we can see
more clearly what is required in the strategy.

V3                 V4                    V5
0.48            0.25             -0.25
0.5             0.27             *-1.0
-0.5            *-1.0            0.14

V3 has twice the variane of V4 and V4 with V5 sums to
0.41. So that

Yhat = X – delta;
Yhat = X-X + Y;
Let one X be Xhat, then




                                                                                                   80
II    Comparing Reproduced Correlation matrix with    Appendix
Revised Factor Matrix
                                                      FACTOR     MATRIX   REVISED   (*highest   load
Factor Revised Matrix V3 to V5
                                                      1Y         2C       3 Yhat    4X          5 de
V3                V4                     V5           0.82       *1.0     0.5       0.25        -0.25
0.48           0.25              -0.25                *1.0       0.41     *1.0      0.25        -0.50
0.5            0.27              *-1.0                0.5        *1.0     0.48      0.25        -0.25
-0.5           *-1.0             0.14                 0.5        0.5      0.5       0.27        *-1.0
                                                      -0.5       *-1.0    -0.5      *-1.0       0.14

Reproduced Strategy

0.23           0.24              -.24
0.24           0.25              -.25
-.24           -.25              0.25

Compare difference matrix
V3                V4          V5
0.25        0.01         -.01
0.26        0.02         -.75
-.26        -.75         -.11
.25         -.72        -.87

V3 has the least difference because V3 explains
twice the variance of V4 and V4 with V5 are same as
V3.

III    Conclusion

The model Ysubi = Xsubi is validated.




                                                                                         81
Graphical Interpretation         Y=.82*C; C=.41*Yhat;           Chapter V
                                 Ysubi=.25;                     DS MART Digital Signage MIDAS ALGORITHM
                                 Yhat= - .5*X;                  By Thomas McClure
                                 X=.27*delta=.27(X-     This is to let you know about Digital Signage. It is a real-time
                                 Y);                    interactive mark et application for the Midas Algorit hm, called MART,
                                                        for MIDAS ALGORITHM REAL-TIME. And it works every eight
                                 Yhat= -.14*(X-Y);
                                                        seconds.
                                 Y=(.25+.14*X-.14Y);    That's right.
                                 Y=(.25 +.14*X)/(1-
                                 .14)=.25/.86 +.16*X    Taking the last three MIDAS IN-RUNNING ODDS, it uses
                                 Y=.29+.16*X            NeuralTools from
            V1 vs V3                                    Palisade with MS E XCE L, to update and estimate the next ODDS.
            1.0            *                            And it
                                                        can estimate increases in US HOUSE seats in mid-term elections,
            .82   *
                                                        from
            .5    *                                     regional LOTTO numbers. Just enter the ODDS and LOTTO
      -.5   0     .5       1.0                          numbers.
      *     -.5
                                                        Pretty good vaporware at this point (P GVW)! You too could be
            V1 vs V4                                    getting
                                                        the ODDS in less than eight seconds.
                                       1.0   *
                                                        Thomas McClure
                                       .82   *          professionallc
                                       .5    *
            -1.0   -.75    -.5   .25   0     .25   .5   **************************************************
            1.0                                         *******************************
            *                          -.5              So what happens if you create a program:
                                                        Yhatsubi = (Ysubi-Y2)/(Y3-Y1)=[(Ysubi/(Y3-Y1) -
                                                        Y2/(Y3-Y1)],
                                       Y=.3+.2*X        where Y2 is the median,
                                                        and Y3 is high; Y1 is low;
                                                        (Y3-Y1) is range?
                                                        Ysubi is {Y3, Y2, Y1}
                                                        Yhatsubi is {[(1-(Y2/Y3))/(1-(Y1/Y3))], 0, [(1-
                                                        (Y2/Y1))/((Y3/Y1)-1)]}




                                                                                                                             82
Since Y3>Y2>Y1 then Yhatsubi is {+ <1, 0, - <1}      num1 num2 num3 op1 op2 interm. result result

                                                     0.79 4.74 5.47 add subtract 5.54 ;<0.06> :21
The program for Yhatsubi is:                         9.27 9.35 4.53 subtract subtract -0.08 ;<4.61> :22
{                                                    1.73 6.95 3.05 add multiply 8.68 ;<26.47> :23
Ysubi Y1 Y3 add subtract (Ysubi+Y1) ; <Ysubi -(Y3-   <> numbers estimated by neural net from below:
Y1)>
Y2 Y3 -Y1 subtract subtract (Y2-Y3) ; <(Y2-(Y3-      Using a neural net and digital signage on a
Y1))>                                                Windows 7 computer with Palisade NeuralTools, one
[Ysubi -(Y3-Y1)] [-(Y2-(Y3-Y1))] [1/(Y3-Y1)] add     can enter three In-running odds from the Midas
multiply ; <[Ysubi -(Y3-Y1) -                        Algorithm (every eight seconds). In just 24
                                                     seconds (every third of a minute or three per
; (Y2-(Y3-Y1))]*(1/(Y3-Y1))]>                        minute or forty-five per quarter hour or ninety
}                                                    per
15, 21, 30, 31, 32, 26 2 m3 +2 +1 $117 -166 -.8      half hour or almost two hundred estimations per
13, 37, 39, 19, 14, 22 0 m3 +1 $327 + 44 +.2         hour in real-time.), one can estimate the odds of
19, 25, 34, 46, 53, 15 0 m3 +1 +1 $283 median + 00   a line.
range 210
                                                     A B CD EF G
Ysubi = {327, 283, 117)= {Y3,Y2,Y1}
Range = 327-117=210 = {Y3-Y1)                        In :22 is Y2 Y3 -Y1 subtract subtract (Y2-Y3) :22
Median = 283; Y2                                     ; <(Y2-(Y3-Y1))>
Y3-Y2 = 44
Y1-Y2 = -166                                         Ysubi = {327, 283, 117)= {Y3,Y2,Y1}
(Y3-Y2)/(Y3-Y1) = 44/210 = +.2                       Range = 327-117=210 = {Y3-Y1)
(Y1-Y2)/(Y3-Y1) = -166/210 = -.8                     Median = 283; Y2
((Y3-Y2)-(Y1-Y2))/(Y3-Y1) = (Y3-Y1)/(Y3-Y1)          Y3-Y2 = 44
+.2 -(-.8)=+1                                        Y1-Y2 = -166
                                                     (Y3-Y2)/(Y3-Y1) = 44/210 = +.2
Y,C,Yhat,X,delta                                     (Y1-Y2)/(Y3-Y1) = -166/210 = -.8
2,2,10,2,0
0,1,0,1,1                                            Enable Live Prediction
0,1,0,0,0 0,1,0,0,0
                                                     (1) Enter Y2, Y3 and -Y1 in A:22, B:22, C:22
**************************************************   AB CD EF G
*******************************
This example was created by Palisade Corporation.    In :21 is Ysubi Y1 Y3 add subtract (Ysubi+Y1) :21
ABCD EF G                                            ; <Ysubi -(Y3-Y1)>




                                                                                                         83
                                                     computers are no match for human intelligence.
(2) Enter Y1 Y3 and Ysubi (Y3, Y2, Y1) in A:21,
B:21, C:21
A B CD EF G                                          Few challenges in computing loom larger than
                                                     unraveling semantics, understanding the meaning
In :23 is [Ysubi -(Y3-Y1)] [-(Y2-(Y3-Y1))] [1/(Y3-   of language. One reason is that the meaning of
Y1)] add multiply ; <[Ysubi -(Y3-Y1) - :23
                                                     words and phrases hinges not only on their
; (Y2-(Y3-Y1))]*(1/(Y3-Y1))]>                        context, but also on background knowledge that
                                                     humans learn over years, day after day.
(3) Enter G:21, -G:22, 1/range in A:23, B:23, C:23
[....you will be able to change any of the           Since the start of the year, a team of researchers
independent variables                                at Carnegie Mellon University
(the three numbers and the two operations in cells   <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/times
A21:E23) and                                         topics/organizations/c/carnegie_mellon_universi
see the corresponding predicted result update
immediately. ]                                       ty/index.html?inline=nyt-org> — supported by
                                                     grants from the Defense Advanced Research
}                                                    Projects Agency <http://www.darpa.mil/> and
The new Yhatsubi G:23 for each of Ysubi is:
                                                     Google
                                                     <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/
Yhatsubi = (Ysubi-Y2)/(Y3-Y1)=[(Ysubi/(Y3-Y1) -      companies/google_inc/index.html?inline=nyt-
Y2/(Y3-Y1)],                                         org>, and tapping into a research supercomputing
                                                     cluster provided by Yahoo
Chapter VI
                                                     <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/
Patterns and Correlations                            companies/yahoo_inc/index.html?inline=nyt-
                                                     org> — has been fine-tuning a computer system
By Thomas McClure
                                                     that is trying to master semantics by learning
Give a computer a task that can be crisply defined   more like a human. Its beating hardware heart is
— win at chess, predict the weather — and the        a sleek, silver-gray computer — calculating 24
machine bests humans nearly every time. Yet          hours a day, seven days a week — that resides in a
when problems are nuanced or ambiguous, or           basement computer center at the university, in
require combining varied sources of information,     Pittsburgh. The computer was primed by the




                                                                                                      84
researchers with some basic knowledge in various      Indianapolis Colts — even if it has never read that
categories and set loose on the Web with a            Mr. Manning plays for the Colts. ―Plays for‖ is a
mission to teach itself.                              relation, and there are 280 kinds of relations. The
―For all the advances in computer science, we still   number of categories and relations has more than
don’t have a computer that can learn as humans        doubled since earlier this year, and will steadily
do, cumulatively, over the long term,‖ said the       expand.
team’s leader, Tom M. Mitchell, a computer            The learned facts are continuously added to
scientist and chairman of the machine learning        NELL’s growing database, which the researchers
department.                                           call a ―knowledge base.‖ A larger pool of facts, Dr.
The Never-Ending Language Learning system             Mitchell says, will help refine NELL’s learning
<http://rtw.ml.cmu.edu/rtw/>, or NELL, has            algorithms so that it finds facts on the Web more
made an impressive showing so far. NELL scans         accurately and more efficiently over time.
hundreds of millions of Web pages for text            NELL is one project in a widening field of research
patterns that it uses to learn facts, 390,000 to      and investment aimed at enabling computers to
date, with an estimated accuracy of 87 percent.       better understand the meaning of language. Many
These facts are grouped into semantic categories      of these efforts tap the Web as a rich trove of text
— cities, companies, sports teams, actors,            to assemble structured ontologies — formal
universities, plants and 274 others. The category     descriptions of concepts and relationships — to
facts are things like ―San Francisco is a city‖ and   help computers mimic human understanding. The
―sunflower is a plant.‖                               ideal has been discussed for years, and more than
NELL also learns facts that are relations between     a decade ago Sir Tim Berners-Lee
members of two categories. For example, Peyton        <http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/6
Manning                                               2493/Sir-Tim-Berners-Lee>, who invented the
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/times        underlying software for the World Wide Web,
topics/people/m/peyton_manning/index.html?inl         sketched his vision of a ―semantic Web.‖
ine=nyt-per> is a football player (category). The     Today, ever-faster computers, an explosion of
Indianapolis Colts is a football team (category).     Web data and improved software techniques are
By scanning text patterns, NELL can infer with a      opening the door to rapid progress. Scientists at
high probability that Peyton Manning plays for the    universities, government labs, Google, Microsoft




                                                                                                        85
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/           topics/organizations/u/university_of_washington
companies/microsoft_corporation/index.html?inli         /index.html?inline=nyt-org>, who leads a project
ne=nyt-org>, I.B.M.                                     called TextRunner, which reads the Web to
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/           extract facts.
companies/international_business_machines/ind           Computers that understand language, experts say,
ex.html?inline=nyt-org> and elsewhere are               promise a big payoff someday. The potential
pursuing breakthroughs, along somewhat                  applications range from smarter search (supplying
different paths.                                        natural-language answers to search queries, not
For example, I.B.M.’s ―question answering‖              just links to Web pages) to virtual personal
machine, Watson, shows remarkable semantic              assistants that can reply to questions in specific
understanding in fields like history, literature and    disciplines or activities like health, education,
sports as it plays the quiz show ―Jeopardy!‖            travel and shopping.
Google Squared, a research project at the Internet      ―The technology is really maturing, and will
search giant, demonstrates ample grasp of               increasingly be used to gain understanding,‖ said
semantic categories as it finds and presents            Alfred Spector, vice president of research for
information from around the Web on search topics        Google. ―We’re on the verge now in this semantic
like ―U.S. presidents‖ and ―cheeses.‖                   world.‖
Still, artificial intelligence experts agree that the   With NELL, the researchers built a base of
Carnegie Mellon approach is innovative. Many            knowledge, seeding each kind of category or
semantic learning systems, they note, are more          relation with 10 to 15 examples that are true. In
passive learners, largely hand-crafted by human         the category for emotions, for example: ―Anger is
programmers, while NELL is highly automated             an emotion.‖ ―Bliss is an emotion.‖ And about a
<http://rtw.ml.cmu.edu/papers/carlson-                  dozen more.
aaai10.pdf>. ―What’s exciting and significant
about it is the continuous learning, as if NELL is      Then NELL gets to work. Its tools include
exercising curiosity on its own, with little human      programs that extract and classify text phrases
help,‖ said Oren Etzioni, a computer scientist at       from the Web, programs that look for patterns
the University of Washington                            and correlations, and programs that learn rules.
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/times          For example, when the computer system reads the
                                                        phrase ―Pikes Peak,‖ it studies the structure —



                                                                                                        86
two words, each beginning with a capital letter,      said. ―The girl caught the butterfly with the
and the last word is Peak. That structure alone       spots.‖ And, ―The girl caught the butterfly with the
might make it probable that Pikes Peak is a           net.‖
mountain. But NELL also reads in several ways. It     A human reader, he noted, inherently understands
will mine for text phrases that surround Pikes        that girls hold nets, and girls are not usually
Peak and similar noun phrases repeatedly. For         spotted. So, in the first sentence, ―spots‖ is
example, ―I climbed XXX.‖                             associated with ―butterfly,‖ and in the second,
                                                      ―net‖ with ―girl.‖
                                                      ―That’s obvious to a person, but it’s not obvious to
                                                      a computer,‖ Dr. Mitchell said. ―So much of human
NELL, Dr. Mitchell explains, is designed to be able   language is background knowledge, knowledge
to grapple with words in different contexts, by       accumulated over time. That’s where NELL is
deploying a hierarchy of rules to resolve             headed, and the challenge is how to get that
ambiguity. This kind of nuanced judgment tends        knowledge.‖
to flummox computers. ―But as it turns out, a         A helping hand from humans, occasionally, will be
system like this works much better if you force it    part of the answer. For the first six months, NELL
to learn many things, hundreds at once,‖ he said.     ran unassisted. But the research team noticed that
For example, the text-phrase structure ―I climbed     while it did well with most categories and
XXX‖ very often occurs with a mountain. But when      relations, its accuracy on about one-fourth of
NELL reads, ―I climbed stairs,‖ it has previously     them trailed well behind. Starting in June, the
learned with great certainty that ―stairs‖ belongs    researchers began scanning each category and
to the category ―building part.‖ ―It self-corrects    relation for about five minutes every two weeks.
when it has more information, as it learns more,‖     When they find blatant errors, they label and
Dr. Mitchell explained.                               correct them, putting NELL’s learning engine back
NELL, he says, is just getting under way, and its     on track.
growing knowledge base of facts and relations is      When Dr. Mitchell scanned the ―baked goods‖
intended as a foundation for improving machine        category recently, he noticed a clear pattern. NELL
intelligence. Dr. Mitchell offers an example of the   was at first quite accurate, easily identifying all
kind of knowledge NELL cannot manage today,           kinds of pies, breads, cakes and cookies as baked
but may someday. Take two similar sentences, he



                                                                                                        87
goods. But things went awry after NELL’s noun-
phrase classifier decided ―Internet cookies‖ was a
baked good. (Its database related to baked goods
or the Internet apparently lacked the knowledge
to correct the mistake.)
NELL had read the sentence ―I deleted my
Internet cookies.‖ So when it read ―I deleted my
files,‖ it decided ―files‖ was probably a baked
good, too. ―It started this whole avalanche of
mistakes,‖ Dr. Mitchell said. He corrected the
Internet cookies error and restarted NELL’s
bakery education.
His ideal, Dr. Mitchell said, was a computer system
that could learn continuously with no need for
human assistance. ―We’re not there yet,‖ he said.
―But you and I don’t learn in isolation either.‖




                                                      88
I       Introduction
This paper is written to look for correlations and patterns in soccer
data using a predictor for soccer matches.




                                                                        89
                                                                         time has a new and well known coach, and... this vital
SOCCER MATCH PREDICTOR                                                   information was just being missed by you!
Are you tired of losing your bets because the game ended in a draw?      Soccer Match Predictor analyzes in detail each team, player,
or are you tired of s pendi ng tons of money in soccer betting systems   trainer, their past and recent performances, injured players,
that just fail one after another?                                        previous games between same teams, etc.
NEW VERSION 1.6.2 ! Updated for 2010-2011 NEW
VERSION 1.6.2 !                                                          Each time a Game is played, the teams participating, earn a Rating
(ATTENTION: if you're using version 1.6 or 1.6.1, please                 for that Game, similar to the way that Points are assigned. However,
upgrade asap)                                                            Ratings are earnt based not only on the result, but also on the
                                                                         relevant strength of your the opponent.
You bet on the super favorite team but the game ended in a               3 average Rating per Game are calculated for each team.
draw! How many times that happened to any of us? many,                   1. Average over Last 4 Home/Away Games
many times... for majority of the bettors that could have been a         2. Average over All Home/Away Games
surprise, for the sportsbooks most of the time it wasn't a               3. Average over All Games
surprise, odds are often falsely inflated to let people think that a     The figure shown is the difference between the Home Teams
                                                                         A verage Rating over the Last 4 Home games and the Away Teams
team has great chances to win the game when that isn't                   A verage Rating over the Last 4 Away Games.
necessarily true!                                                        If the number is positive, the system favours the Home Team, if the
                                                                         figure is negative, it favours the Away Team. The bigger the number,
Matches involving 'less known' teams or matches in lower                 the higher the confidence, and the closer to 0, the more chance of a
divisions have most of the time BETTER ODDS, and with the                Draw.
help of Soccer Match Predictor those teams will be studied in
detail and interesting opportunities can be unveiled for you to
bet and for you TO WIN!
A small and quick example of this:
You're browsing though the matches of a lower division,
humm the league leaders are playing at home with a team that
is in the middle table and that team has just lost their last game
at home, odds to win for the home team are 1.30, wow, this bet
should be a piece of cake! wrong ! that's what the sportsbooks
want you to think... league leaders have their best scorer
suspended by 2 games and their captain and best player a
midfielder isn't playing today because he's injured, the away




                                                                                                                                           90
II      Correlations and patterns in soccer odds data
                                                                                Yhat                    V3                      -0.90465             -0.42615
FACTOR MA TRIX REV ISED (*highest loaded)                                       X                       V4                      -0.99653             0.08327
1               2                  3                       4                    Delta
                                                                                  5                     V5                      0.08327              0.99653

0.82                 *1.0              0.5                 0.25                    -0.25
*1.0                 0.41              *1.0                0.25                 COMMON VARIANCE = 3.0000
                                                                                   -0.50
0.5                  *1.0              0.48                0.25                    -0.25
0.5                  0.5               0.5                 0.27                 Our task is to create reproduced correlation matrix from FACTOR 1
                                                                                   *-1.0
-0.5                 *-1.0             -0.5                *-1.0                (Principal Axes)
                                                                                   0.14

                         CORRELATIONS                                           -1*-1          1.0
                V1             V2               V3                 V4           -1*.-866       .866
                         V5                                                     -1*.5          -.5
                Y              C                Yhat               X
                         delta                                                  -.866*-.866    .745
                                                                                -.866*.5       -.433
C               V2                1.000
Yhat            V3                1.000          1.000                          .5*.5          .250
X               V4                0.875          0.875                 0.875
Delta           V5                -0.25          -0.25                 -0.25            0.25

MicrOsiris
Dec 2, 2010
FACTOR_ANALYSIS 2
FACTOR MATRIX LOADINGS: factor run
                                                FACTOR 1
                                                FACTOR 2

Yhat                         V3                  -1.00000                      0.00000
X                            V4                  -0.86603                      0.50000
Delta                        V5                  0.50000                       0.86603

VARIMAX ROTATED FACTOR MATRIX
(Normalized Solution) rotate run

                FACTOR 1          FACTOR 2




                                                                                                                                                91
Reproduced Correlation Matrix (FACTOR 1 Principal Axes)             .897             1.0               .08
                                                                    -.072            .08               .01
1.0              .866            -.5
.866             .745            -.433                              1.000
-.5              -.433           .250                               0.875            0.875
                                                                    -0.25            -0.25             0.25
Compare Correlation Matrix
                                                                    Difference Matrix
1.000                                                               V3              V4                V5
0.875            0.875                                              -.09             .02              -.18
-0.25            -0.25           0.25                               .02              .13              .33
                                                                    -.18             .33              -.24
Difference Matrix                                                   -.25            .48               -.74
V3              V4               V5
0.0              -.01            -.25                               V3 (least difference) ex plains twice as much variance as V4.**
-.01             -.13            -.18
-.25             -.18            .00                                V4 rotated differs from V4 factored in sign of difference and size.
-.26            -.32             -.43
                                                                    V5 rotated differs from V4 factored in size of differenc e but not in
V3 (least difference) ex plains twice as much variance as V4.**     sign.


Our task is to create reproduced correlation matrix from FACTOR 1
(Rot ated Varimax)

-.9*-.9         .810
-.9*-.9965      .897
-9*.083         -.072

-.996*-.996     1.0
-.996*.08       0.08

.08*.08         .01

Reproduced Correlation Matrix (FACTOR 1 Rotated Varimax)

.810             .897            -.072




                                                                                                                                            92
III     Conclusion                                                       revis ed FACTOR matrix is
                                                                         to demonstrate the relation of the variances of V3 to V4, and V4 to
Reproducing the correlation V4 from FACTOR 1 shows the least             V5.
differenc e in both factored and rotated. Given the most explanatory
VARIABLE 3 from the variance (diagonal) in

FACTOR MA TRIX REV ISED above. [V3 is twice V4]

V3**                     V4               V5
0.48             0.25            -0.25
0.5              0.27            *-1.0
-0.5             *-1.0           0.14

Compare Reproduc ed Correlations FACTOR mat rix with

1.0              .866            -.5
.866             .745            -.433
-.5              -.433           .250

Reproduced Correlations FACTOR Rotated Matrix

.810             .897            -.072
.897             1.0             .08
-.072            .08             .01

Difference matrix

.09              .03             -.43
.03              -,25            -.51
-.43             -.51            .24

-.31            -.23             -.70

The latter two correlation matrices (reproduced) are more alike than
the revised factor matrix,
Having similar patterns in their difference matrices. The value of the




                                                                                                                                               93
where Y2 is the median,
and Y3 is high; Y1 is low;                        Now to predict elections, that is, C, the US House
(Y3-Y1) is range?                                 seat change in mid-term elections, take Y,
Ysubi is {Y3, Y2, Y1}                             the three LOTTO numbers, mod 3 {2, 1, 0} and Yhat
Yhatsubi is {[(1-(Y2/Y3))/(1-(Y1/Y3))], 0, [(1-   from the NeuralTools model. C=Y (Y=C).
(Y2/Y1))/((Y3/Y1)-1)]}                            The seat change is the same as the daily LOTTO
                                                  numbers mod 3. {+2,+1,+0}. Provided that the
                                                  states for US House in mid-term elections are the
Since Y3>Y2>Y1 then Yhatsubi is {+ <1, 0, - <1}   same states chosen for the LOTTO numbers.
                                                  That is, daily state LOTTO numbers mod 3 {2,1,0}
                                                  are efficient estimates of US House seat
Change Yhatsubi by adding +.2 to -.2 = .0; by     change {+2,+1,+0}.
adding +.2 to .8 = 1. Multiply by 10.             They are the in-running odds prior to the mid-term
                                                  elections, provided the In-Running Odds (Yhat)
                                                  are state teams.
The model is in five variables:

                                                                                       ***
Y,C,Yhat,X,delta                                  CORRELATIONS -- PEARSONIAN CORRELATION ANALYSIS
2,2,10,2,0                                        ***
0,1,0,1,1                                          MicrOsiris
0,1,0,0,0                                          Nov 30, 2010
                                                  CORRELATIONS    1

C=b1*Yhat + u                                      Using dictionary C:\PROGRAM
Y=b2*C                                            FILES\MICROSIRIS\DATA\MYDATA.DIC
where                                              Using data file C:\PROGRAM
b1=2/10                                           FILES\MICROSIRIS\DATA\MYDATA.DAT
b2=10/10
                                                   Creating matrix file C:\PROGRAM
                                                  FILES\MICROSIRIS\DATA\MATOUT.CSV
2=2/10*10
2=1*2                                              Missing-data option: PAIR-WISE deletion

                                                   Assigning number 1 to the correlation matrix
X is mod3 {2,1,0} actuals.
delta is Y-X                                       Total case count: 3




                                                                                                    94
                                                        Since Y3>Y2>Y1 then Yhatsubi is {+ <1, 0, - <1}
    Name                        Variable            N
Mean             StdDev
  Y                                 V1              3   The program for Yhatsubi is:
0.667              1.155                                {
  C                                 V2              3   Ysubi Y1 Y3 add subtract (Ysubi+Y1) ; <Ysubi -(Y3-
1.333              0.577                                Y1)>
  Yhat                              V3              3   Y2 Y3 -Y1 subtract subtract (Y2-Y3) ; <(Y2-(Y3-
3.333              5.774                                Y1))>
  X                                 V4              3   [Ysubi -(Y3-Y1)] [-(Y2-(Y3-Y1))] [1/(Y3-Y1)] add
1.000              1.000                                multiply ; <[Ysubi -(Y3-Y1) -
  delta                             V5              3
0.333              0.577                                ; (Y2-(Y3-Y1))]*(1/(Y3-Y1))]>
                                                        }
                                                        15, 21, 30, 31, 32, 26 2 m3 +2 +1 $117 -166 -.8
 CORRELATIONS                                           13, 37, 39, 19, 14, 22 0 m3 +1 $327 + 44 +.2
                                                        19, 25, 34, 46, 53, 15 0 m3 +1 +1 $283 median + 00
                     V1      V2      V3        V4       range 210
                      Y       C    Yhat         X
 C         V2    1.0000                                 Ysubi = {327, 283, 117)= {Y3,Y2,Y1}
 Yhat      V3    1.0000 1.0000                          Range = 327-117=210 = {Y3-Y1)
 X         V4    0.8660 0.8660 0.8660                   Median = 283; Y2
 delta     V5   -0.5000 -0.5000 -0.5000    0.0000       Y3-Y2 = 44
                                                        Y1-Y2 = -166
 The data analysis was generated using MicrOsiris       (Y3-Y2)/(Y3-Y1) = 44/210 = +.2
software, Version 10, Copyright 2010 from               (Y1-Y2)/(Y3-Y1) = -166/210 = -.8
www.microsiris.com.                                     ((Y3-Y2)-(Y1-Y2))/(Y3-Y1) = (Y3-Y1)/(Y3-Y1)
                                                        +.2 -(-.8)=+1
Yhatsubi = (Ysubi-Y2)/(Y3-Y1)=[(Ysubi/(Y3-Y1) -
Y2/(Y3-Y1)],                                            Y,C,Yhat,X,delta
where Y2 is the median,                                 2,2,10,2,0
and Y3 is high; Y1 is low;                              0,1,0,1,1
(Y3-Y1) is range?                                       0,1,0,0,0 0,1,0,0,0
Ysubi is {Y3, Y2, Y1}
Yhatsubi is {[(1-(Y2/Y3))/(1-(Y1/Y3))], 0, [(1-         The process begins with Ysubi {Y3,Y2,Y1}
(Y2/Y1))/((Y3/Y1)-1)]}
                                                        Wait 8 seconds for each of the three ODDS.




                                                                                                          95
Find the range: (Y3-Y1); and 1/(Y 3-Y1).                              Chapter VII
                                                                      Still superstitious? Read on.
Subtract the range from Y3, Y2, Y1

Y3 - (Y3-Y 1) = Y1

Y2 - (Y3-Y 1) = Y2 - (Y3-Y1)

Y1 - (Y3-Y 1) = 2*Y1-Y3

Add to each above, -(Y2 - (Y3-Y1))

(Y3 - (Y3-Y1) -(Y2 - (Y 3-Y 1)) = (Y3-Y2)

(Y2 - (Y3-Y1)) - (Y 2- (Y 3-Y1)) = (Y2-Y 2)

(Y1 - (Y3-Y1)) - (Y 2 - (Y3-Y1)) = (Y1-Y 2)

And multiply by 1/(Y3-Y 1)

(Y3-Y 2)/(Y3-Y1), which is positive

(Y2-Y 2)/(Y3-Y1), which is zero

(Y1-Y 2)/(Y3-Y1), which is negative

If Y2= 0.0, then
[(Y3) + (-Y1)]/(Y3-Y 1)= 1.0

Trans form from negative and positive decimal numbers to 0 to 10
and then 0 to 5.

Trans form 0 to 5; to 5 4 3 2 1 0 > 5 4 3 2 1 > 4 3 2 > 2 1 0 mod 3




                                                                                                      96
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