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Business Employment Dynamics: State and County Data David M. Talan BLS National LMI Conference Richmond, VA May 25, 2005 Job Reallocation Rates by State: States Above the National Average Alaska Wyoming Montana Idaho Washington California Florida New Mexico Maine Oregon Arizona Colorado Utah Vermont Georgia New Hampshire Oklahoma New Jersey Louisiana Nevada New York US Average 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Percent Gross Job Gain Rate Gross Job Loss Rate Preliminary BED State Data Available • New data product • Total private data: 1992-2004 Seasonally adjusted • NAICS sector data: 1998-2004 Unadjusted Business Employment Dynamics: Concepts • New data highlight employment gains and losses from business: Openings Closings Expansions Contractions Business Employment Dynamics: Concepts • BED data are compiled from records 6.5 million private sector business establishments from the QCEW program • BED reveals the dynamics of the labor market. • BED data show gross flows as well as net employment changes. Business Employment Dynamics: Methods • Establishments are linked longitudinally • Linkages address mergers, acquisitions, and spin-offs, etc. • 450 million quarterly records and growing United States Total Private Employment, Unadjusted: 2001-2004Q3 112,000,000 111,000,000 110,000,000 109,000,000 Employment 108,000,000 107,000,000 106,000,000 105,000,000 104,000,000 103,000,000 102,000,000 101,000,000 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Time Uses of Business Dynamics Data Business Dynamics data will help: • Assess the employment dynamics of the business cycle • Provide new indicators on the health of the labor market • Highlight the forces behind the net changes of employment BED—Filling a Data Gap • The BED has generated excitement in the user community as it fills in a data gap: “The new Employment Dynamics data produced by BLS demonstrate quite clearly that new jobs appear even at the same time that other jobs disappear—and in the same industries.”—Janet L. Norwood, Committee on National Statistics, October 28, 2004 Uses of State and Local BED Data • Compare BED data geographically • Identify troubled industries by measuring closing and declining businesses. • Identify growth industries by measuring openings and expanding businesses. • Support existing LMI data Job Reallocation Rates by State: States with the Most Number of Gross Job Gains based on 2004Q2 Washington California Florida Oregon Arizona Colorado Georgia New Jersey Louisiana New York South Carolina Michigan Minnesota Virginia Maryland Texas Missouri North Carolina Tennessee Ohio Massachusetts Illinois Indiana Pennsylvania Wisconsin 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 Percent Gross Job Gain Rate Gross Job Loss Rate Job Reallocation Rates by State: States Below the National Average US Average North Dakota South Carolina Rhode Island Michigan Kansas South Dakota Minnesota Virginia West Virginia Maryland Delaware Texas Mississippi Kentucky Missouri North Carolina Tennessee Alabama Ohio Iowa Massachusetts Illinois Nebraska Indiana Pennsylvania Wisconsin Connecticut Arkansas Hawaii 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Percent Gross Job Gain Rate Gross Job Loss Rate Uses of State and Local BED Data • Measure effectiveness of incentive programs: business development zones small/minority business development programs loans/grants programs • Identify growth areas Total Employment: Baldwin, County Alabama 45,000 44,000 43,000 42,000 Employment 41,000 40,000 39,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 35,000 34,000 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 Time Gross Job Gains and Losses for Baldwin County, Alabama, Unadjusted: 1998Q1-2003Q1 8,000 7,000 6,000 Employment 5,000 Gr oss Job Gains 4,000 Gr oss Job Losses 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 98 99 00 01 02 03 19 19 20 20 20 20 Time Components of Gross Job Gains and Losses for Baldwin County, Alabama, Unadjusted: 1998Q1-2003Q1 6,000 5,000 Employment 4,000 Expansions Openings 3,000 Contr actions Closings 2,000 1,000 0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 98 99 00 01 02 03 19 19 20 20 20 20 Time Challenges for Publishing State and County BED data • Predecessor / Successor relationships • State systems edits and linkages • Tools needed for State review • Non-disclosure for county data? State Role in Publishing BED Data • Focus Edits on P/S Review Imputations Use Wage Record Editing Tool • Validate State BED data Summary • Preliminary State BED are available for review and use • Working together we can solve these publication challenges • BED is a new paradigm in labor market analysis BED References • Web: www.bls.gov/bdm • Email: Talan.David@bls.gov
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