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Business Demographics Job Creation and Job Destruction The

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Business Demographics Job Creation and Job Destruction The Powered By Docstoc
					Business Employment Dynamics:
     State and County Data

           David M. Talan

     BLS National LMI Conference
           Richmond, VA
            May 25, 2005
                        Job Reallocation Rates by State:
                            States Above the National Average
        Alaska
     Wyoming
      Montana
         Idaho
   Washington
     California
        Florida
   New Mexico
         Maine
       Oregon
       Arizona
      Colorado
          Utah
      Vermont
       Georgia
New Hampshire
     Oklahoma
   New Jersey
     Louisiana
       Nevada
     New York
   US Average
                  0.0      5.0            10.0        15.0             20.0   25.0   30.0
                                                  Percent

                        Gross Job Gain Rate      Gross Job Loss Rate
Preliminary BED State Data Available

• New data product
• Total private data: 1992-2004
    Seasonally adjusted
• NAICS sector data: 1998-2004
    Unadjusted
 Business Employment Dynamics:
            Concepts
• New data highlight employment gains and losses
  from business:

      Openings
      Closings
      Expansions
      Contractions
 Business Employment Dynamics:
            Concepts
• BED data are compiled from records 6.5 million
  private sector business establishments from the
  QCEW program
• BED reveals the dynamics of the labor market.
• BED data show gross flows as well as net
  employment changes.
 Business Employment Dynamics:
                  Methods

• Establishments are linked longitudinally
• Linkages address mergers, acquisitions, and
  spin-offs, etc.
• 450 million quarterly records and growing
                     United States Total Private Employment, Unadjusted: 2001-2004Q3
             112,000,000
             111,000,000
             110,000,000
             109,000,000
Employment




             108,000,000
             107,000,000
             106,000,000
             105,000,000
             104,000,000
             103,000,000
             102,000,000
             101,000,000
                      Jan-01        Jan-02         Jan-03          Jan-04
                                                  Time
  Uses of Business Dynamics Data
Business Dynamics data will help:
• Assess the employment dynamics of the business
  cycle
• Provide new indicators on the health of the labor
  market
• Highlight the forces behind the net changes of
  employment
       BED—Filling a Data Gap
• The BED has generated excitement in the user community as
  it fills in a data gap:

“The new Employment Dynamics data produced by BLS
  demonstrate quite clearly that new jobs appear even at
  the same time that other jobs disappear—and in the same
  industries.”—Janet L. Norwood, Committee on National
  Statistics, October 28, 2004
Uses of State and Local BED Data
• Compare BED data geographically
• Identify troubled industries by measuring closing and
  declining businesses.
• Identify growth industries by measuring openings
  and expanding businesses.
• Support existing LMI data
                                  Job Reallocation Rates by State:
                       States with the Most Number of Gross Job Gains based on 2004Q2

   Washington
      California
         Florida
       Oregon
       Arizona
      Colorado
       Georgia
   New Jersey
     Louisiana
     New York
South Carolina
      Michigan
     Minnesota
        Virginia
      Maryland
         Texas
       Missouri
 North Carolina
   Tennessee
             Ohio
Massachusetts
          Illinois
        Indiana
  Pennsylvania
    Wisconsin
                     0.0   2.0    4.0     6.0      8.0    10.0     12.0    14.0      16.0   18.0   20.0
                                                         Percent

                                   Gross Job Gain Rate         Gross Job Loss Rate
                               Job Reallocation Rates by State:
                                   States Below the National Average
  US Average
 North Dakota
South Carolina
 Rhode Island
     Michigan
      Kansas
 South Dakota
    Minnesota
       Virginia
 West Virginia
     Maryland
    Delaware
        Texas
   Mississippi
     Kentucky
      Missouri
North Carolina
   Tennessee
     Alabama
           Ohio
           Iowa
Massachusetts
        Illinois
    Nebraska
       Indiana
 Pennsylvania
    Wisconsin
  Connecticut
     Arkansas
        Hawaii
                   0.0   2.0        4.0       6.0    8.0       10.0    12.0      14.0   16.0   18.0

                                                     Percent

                               Gross Job Gain Rate         Gross Job Loss Rate
Uses of State and Local BED Data

• Measure effectiveness of incentive programs:

    business development zones
    small/minority business development programs
    loans/grants programs


• Identify growth areas
                           Total Employment: Baldwin, County Alabama

             45,000
             44,000
             43,000
             42,000
Employment




             41,000
             40,000
             39,000
             38,000
             37,000
             36,000
             35,000
             34,000
                  1998Q1      1999Q1      2000Q1          2001Q1   2002Q1   2003Q1
                                                   Time
                     Gross Job Gains and Losses for Baldwin County, Alabama,
                                   Unadjusted: 1998Q1-2003Q1

             8,000
             7,000
             6,000
Employment




             5,000
                                                                               Gr oss Job Gains
             4,000                                                             Gr oss Job Losses
             3,000
             2,000
             1,000
                 0
                Q1



                            Q1



                                      Q1



                                                Q1



                                                          Q1



                                                                     Q1
               98



                           99



                                     00



                                               01



                                                          02



                                                                    03
             19



                         19



                                   20



                                             20



                                                        20



                                                                  20
                                             Time
                      Components of Gross Job Gains and Losses for Baldwin County,
                                Alabama, Unadjusted: 1998Q1-2003Q1

              6,000

              5,000
Employment




              4,000                                                                  Expansions
                                                                                     Openings
              3,000                                                                  Contr actions
                                                                                     Closings
              2,000

              1,000

                 0
                Q1




                              Q1




                                         Q1




                                                    Q1




                                                               Q1




                                                                          Q1
               98




                              99




                                        00




                                                   01




                                                              02




                                                                         03
             19




                            19




                                      20




                                                 20




                                                            20




                                                                       20
                                                 Time
    Challenges for Publishing State and
            County BED data

•    Predecessor / Successor relationships
•    State systems edits and linkages
•    Tools needed for State review
•    Non-disclosure for county data?
State Role in Publishing BED Data
• Focus Edits on P/S Review
   Imputations
   Use Wage Record Editing Tool
• Validate State BED data
                  Summary
• Preliminary State BED are available for review
  and use
• Working together we can solve these publication
  challenges
• BED is a new paradigm in labor market analysis
            BED References
• Web: www.bls.gov/bdm
• Email: Talan.David@bls.gov

				
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