Iowa Caucus Vs. New Hampshire Primary: Which is the Better Predictor?
The Iowa Caucus has come and gone - Barack Obama won the Democratic Caucus, whereas Mike Huckabee won the Republican side. But exactly how useful are the results from Iowa? Let’s take a quick and dirty look at the numbers from 1976 to 2004:
IOWA CAUCUS
Democratic Winners Won the Caucus 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 "Uncommitted" Jimmy Carter Walter Mondale Dick Gephart Tom Harkin Bill Clinton (unopposed) Al Gore John Kerry Won the Party Nomination Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter Walter Mondale Won the Election Jimmy Carter Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan
Michael Dukakis George H.W. Bush Bill Clinton Bill Clinton Al Gore John Kerry Bill Clinton Bill Clinton George W. Bush George W. Bush
Percentage of Democratic candidates that win the Iowa Caucus and subsequently the party’s nomination: 62.5% ( 5 out of 8 ) Percentage of Democratic candidates that win the Iowa Caucus and subsequently win the Election: 12.5% ( 1 out of 8 ) Republication Winners Won the Caucus Won the Party Nomination Won the Election
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Gerald Ford George H.W. Bush
Gerald Ford Ronald Reagan
Jimmy Carter Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan George H.W. Bush Bill Clinton Bill Clinton George W. Bush George W. Bush
Ronald Reagan (unopposed) Ronald Reagan Bob Dole George H.W. Bush (unopposed) Bob Dole George W. Bush George W. Bush (unopposed) George H.W. Bush George H.W. Bush Bob Dole George W. Bush George W. Bush
Percentage of Republican candidates that win the Iowa Caucus and subsequently the party’s nomination: 75% ( 6 out of 8 ) Percentage of Republican candidates that win the Iowa Caucus and subsequently win the Election: 37.5% ( 3 out of 8 )
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY
Democratic Winners Won the Primary 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter Gary Hart Michael Dukakis Paul Tsongas Bill Clinton (unopposed) Al Gore John Kerry Won the Party Nomination Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter Walter Mondale Won the Election Jimmy Carter Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan
Michael Dukakis George H.W. Bush Bill Clinton Bill Clinton Al Gore John Kerry Bill Clinton Bill Clinton George W. Bush George W. Bush
Percentage of Democratic candidates that win the New Hampshire Primary and subsequently the party’s nomination: 75% ( 6 out of 8 )
Percentage of Democratic candidates that win the New Hampshire Primary and subsequently win the Election: 25% ( 2 out of 8 ) Republican Winners Won the Primary 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Gerald Ford Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan (unopposed) George H.W. Bush George H.W. Bush Pat Buchanan John McCain George W. Bush (unopposed) Won the Party Nomination Gerald Ford Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan George H.W. Bush George H.W. Bush Bob Dole George W. Bush George W. Bush Won the Election Jimmy Carter Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan George H.W. Bush Bill Clinton Bill Clinton George W. Bush George W. Bush
Percentage of Republican candidates that win the New Hampshire Primary and subsequently the party’s nomination: 75% ( 6 out of 8 ) Percentage of Republican candidates that win the New Hampshire Primary and subsequently win the Election: 50% ( 4 out of 8 )
COMPARING THE TWO
From 1976 to 2000 Iowa Democrats Republicans 62.5% 75% 12.5% 37.5% Won the Primary & Party Nomination Won the Primary & the Election
New Hampshire Democrats 75% 25%
Republicans Conclusion
75%
50%
It seems that the Iowa Caucus is more effective in determining who the party nomination will be for Republicans than Democrats ( 75% vs. 62.5% ). The New Hampshire Primary does a slightly better job in determining the nomination from both parties. In case of winning the election, New Hampshire is better at predicting the Election winners for both Democrats and Republican than the Iowa Caucus. This is especially true for the Republicans (as they’ve won 5 out of the last 8 elections). Another way to say it is, if a Republican won the Presidential Election, then it’s more likely that candidate won the New Hampshire Primary than the Iowa Caucus.