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					 The Role of Computing in
     Climate Science

       Dr. Robert Bishop
    WMO Information System (WIS)
Workshop on Information Access Enablers
 Geneva, Switzerland, 17-18 May 20010
Climate is the thin edge of the wedge!
Icelandic Ash Cloud: Mantle-Crust-Glacier-Rivers
 Weather-Climate-Agriculture-Economy-Society
     The Bigger Picture
               CLIMATE



CIVILISATION             ENVIRONMENT




SOLAR SYSTEM              BIOSPHERE



               EARTH
21C: Integration vs Dis-Integration
  The Whole Earth – An Holistic Approach

• Seamless
• Multi-scale (spatial & temporal)
• Multi-science (physical & socio-economic)



         The New Grand Challenge
We have been treating the sciences as
   separate stovepipes and silos
        for over 200 years!
 •   In Research
 •   In Research Funding
 •   In Publishing
 •   In Conferences
 •   In University Faculties
 •   In Government Departments
1950 ENIAC Meteorology Simulations
Yokohama Earth Simulator
 Opened March 2002, NEC SX-6
 Best Dedicated Climate Machines
(TAKEN FROM THE NOVEMBER 2009 TOP500 SUPERCOMPUTER SITES)

Worldwide                             Peak       Sustained
            Organisation                                      Supplier
Ranking                    Country   Teraflops   Teraflops

                                                               NEC
  # 31       JAMSTEC       JAPAN     131.07       122.40       SX-9

                                                               IBM
  # 33       ECMWF           UK      156.42       115.90     Power 575

                                                               IBM
  # 34       ECMWF           UK      156.42       115.90     Power 575

                                                               IBM
  # 35        DKRZ           GY      151.60       115.90     Power 575

                                                              CRAY
  # 54        NAVO          USA      117.13        90.84       XT5
We need to use „best in class‟
  technology to deal with the
complexity of weather, climate,
 environment and their socio-
     economic interaction,
         hence ……
ICES: a peak performance facility

•   Hardware
•   Software
•   Data
•   Science
•   People
              ICES Top Priorities
• Maintain dedicated HPC in the top 5 of machines worldwide
• Supply HPC cycles and software engineering support to
  national and regional Earth & Climate centres worldwide
• Enable climate science to reach comparable levels of spatial
  and temporal resolution as NWP
• Evolve open source Earth system models by integrating
  elements from climate, bio, geo, space & social sciences
• Drive breakout hierarchy of nextgen Earth-Climate models
• Support training of next generation „holistic thinkers‟
• Provide info-briefings on Earth & Climate to
  International Organisations & NGOs
ICES and Disaster Risk Management
                  CLIMATE &
                  WEATHER

   SOCIAL
            •Community Resilience      ENVIRONMENT
  SYSTEMS
            •Adaptation & Mitigation
               •Planning & Relief
                  Strategies
  SOLAR       •Precursor Signals        BIOSPHERE
  SYSTEM

                   EARTH
                   SYSTEM
   ICES and Geoengineering
                 CLIMATE &
                 WEATHER

 SOCIAL
             •Climate Remediation       ENVIRONMENT
SYSTEMS
                 •CO2 Removal
          •Solar Radiation Management
          •Unexpected Consequences
SOLAR
                                         BIOSPHERE
SYSTEM

                   EARTH
                   SYSTEM
Proposed ICES Computing Resources
• Dedicated High Performance Computing
    - 20 year transition: petaflop(1015)-exaflop(1018)-zettaflop(1021flops)

• High-resolution 3D interactive immersion & image analysis
    - auditorium level viewing with remote viewing & remote steering
•   Low cost power availability (nuclear, hydro, solar)
•   Ultra-high-speed networking from ITU
•   Green Computing, Cloud Computing
•   Citizen Science Computing
•   Google Earth, WolframAlpha
         HPC Computing Architectures
          (We need to compute ~ 1000 x real-time)

•   Homogeneous vs heterogeneous
•   Multi-core, CPU-GPU, FPGA, ASICs or full custom
•   Programming languages, software tools & middleware
•   Cluster vs SMP, distributed vs shared memory
•   Power management, flops/watt
•   Silicon-Photonics.
•   Quantum?
         Earth Modelling Software
•   Grid Size
•   Parameterisation
•   Algorithm development
•   Coupling, linkages & feedbacks
•   Representation of physical processes
•   Integration of the socio-economic processes
•   Initial & boundary condition determination
•   Uncertainty estimates & management
•   Statistical & ensemble methods
•   Hierarchy of models
•   Multi-models
•   Stochastics
•   Nextgen
            Earth Data Challenges
•   Data assimilation
•   Historical data re-analysis
•   Data access, archiving & meta-data
•   Data quality control & harmonisation
•   Data availability (in situ, remote sensing)
•   Sparse data (Oceans, Africa, Antarctica)
•   Model output-data validation & verification
•   Model output-data storage (or re-compute?)
      Observation & Data Sources
• Airborne & Satellite Remote Sensing:
  Envisat, MeteoSat, SMOS, GOCE, GOES-R, LandSat, SBIRS

• In Situ:
  AWS, Radar, Lidar, Broadband Seismic


• Mobile:
  Aircraft, Ships, Argo Buoys, Autos? Cell Phones?


• Socio-economic:
  GDP, Land Use, Food, Water Resources, Energy, etc.
             Core Actor‟s Network
• World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)
  - World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
  - World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)
• Group on Earth Observations (GEO)
• European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
• National Meteorology Bureaus
• National Geological Surveys
• National Climate Centres
• Research Universities
         Extended Actor‟s Network
•   ESA, NASA, JAXA, EUMETSAT, CGMS
•   IOC, 21stC-OI, SIO, WHC, JAMSTEC
•   BGS, BRGM, USGS, ERI
•   GEOSS, GCOS, GMES
•   ENES, ACRE, ESFRI
•   CSIRO, CALIT2, NCAR, COLA
•   CNRS (CC-IN2P3), PRACE
•   UK Agencies: DEFRA, DECC
•   US Agencies: NOAA, NSF, DOE, DOD
       ICES Organisation Structure

•   Geneva-based
•   Not-for-profit Foundation
•   Public-Private Partnership
•   Broad Scientific Participation
•   Inter-disciplinary Governance
•   Participation by Int‟l Organisations
•   Experts Committee, Ethics Committee
    Why Public-Private Partnership?

•   Fast
•   Agile
•   Simple
•   Flexible
•   Responsive
•   Non-political
•   Independent
•   New sources of funding
                    Why Geneva?
• International city, neutral country, trusted
• Science literate, educational infrastructure
• Proximity to global policy bodies:

  UNEP, WBCSD, IUCN, WWF
  WHO, UNHCR, ICRC
  WMO (WCRP, WWRP), GEO
  WTO, WEF, UNCTAD, ILO, ITU, EBU

• Partnerships: CERN, ETH, Canton Universities
                               ICES Funding
• PHASE 1 (2010~2015) $350M from sources: 1/2 public, 1/2 private
  - overflow capacity for national and regional centres
  - development of nextgen integrated climate/Earth models


• PHASE 2 (2016~2020) $450M from sources: 1/3 public, 1/3 private, and
  1/3 products and services, such as:

  - test bed for large scale construction projects
  - disaster risk management
  - industry specific services
  - policy-making support
  - decision support
  - „what if‟ scenarios
  - geoengineering
           ICES Foundation Members
Board members:
Bob Bishop President, André Kaplun Secretary, Julien Pitton Treasurer
Bankers: UBS
Auditors: PricewaterhouseCoopers
Expert Committee:
Dr. Ghassem Asrar Director, World Climate Research Programme, WMO
Prof. Martin Beniston Chair for Climate Research, University of Geneva
                      Director, Institute for Environmental Sciences
Prof. Marc Parlange Dean of the School of Architecture, Civil & Environmental Eng.
                      Ecole Polytechnique Federal Lausanne
Dr. Michael Rast      Head of Programme Planning Office
                      Directorate of Earth Observation Programmes
                      European Space Agency
Ethics Committee: tba
 Helping guide the successful transformation of human society
in an era of rapid climate change and frequent natural disasters.
   Recent Major Natural Disasters
    Date          Country    Lives Lost        Cause
April-May 2010    Iceland       -         volcanic ash cloud
  April 2010       China      2000+           6.9 quake
  April 2010       Brazil      200+         rain, mudslides
 March 2010       Uganda       350+         rain, mudslides
  Feb 2010        France        50+       tempest, sea walls
  Feb 2010         Chile       700+       8.8 quake, tsunami
  Jan 2010         Haiti     250,000+         7.0 quake
 April 2009        Italy       300+           6.3 quake
  Feb 2009       Australia     250+           bushfires
  May 2008        China      70,000+          8.0 quake
  Aug 2005         USA        1,800+       hurricane, levees
  Dec 2004       Indonesia   225,000+     9.3 quake, tsunami
  Aug 2003        Europe     30,000+          heat wave
The Father of Modern Meteorology
        Before the Age of Computing
In 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson, a British mathematician
 and meteorologist, proposed an immersive giant globe
  to numerically forecast weather. This “factory” would
 employ 64,000 human computers to sit in tiers around
       the interior circumference of a giant globe.
          ICES and Society
                 CLIMATE &
                 WEATHER

 SOCIAL
                   •Research          ENVIRONMENT
SYSTEMS
                  •Integration
                 •Development
            •Discovery & Innovation
               •Communications
                   •Teaching
SOLAR               •Training          BIOSPHERE
SYSTEM

                   EARTH
                   SYSTEM
                ICES in a Nutshell
• Development of a transformative meta-science that integrates
  climate, weather, environmental, geo, bio, & socio-economic
  sciences
• Next-generation modelling and simulation techniques
• Support for national & regional climate centres
• Teaching, training, capacity building
• Decision support, communications
• Dedicated supercomputing
• Global networking
• Visual intensity

~200 professionals including seconded experts
   Extending Weather & Climate Observations

 Mid-1970s   Mid-1980s       Early 1990s     Late 1990s     Present Day     Early 2010s

Atmosphere   Atmosphere       Atmosphere      Atmosphere     Atmosphere      Atmosphere      Weather
             Land Surface     Land Surface   Land Surface   Land Surface    Land Surface
                                                                                             Climate
                            Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice    Variability
                                               Sulphate        Sulphate        Sulphate
                                               Aerosol         Aerosol         Aerosol
                                                            Non-sulphate     Non-sulphate
                                                              Aerosol          Aerosol
                                                                                             Climate
                                                             Carbon Cycle     Carbon Cycle   Change
                                                                                Dynamic
                                                                               Vegetation
                                                                              Atmospheric
                                                                               Chemistry
Evolution of Forecasting Accuracy
  Weather & Climate Communities
        (A Convergence of Methodologies)

• Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP):
     National Bureaus of Meteorology today: 3~5 days
     ECMWF today: 5~10 days
     Future Goal: increased accuracy, and on to monthly & seasonal level
• Climate modelling:
     WCRP today: 100~1000 years
     Future Goal : increased accuracy, and on to decadal & annual level
• The 10-year Challenge:
     Seasonal to inter-annual predictions
     Global to regional to local forecasting
     Coarse-grain to fine-grain spatial resolution
     Extreme weather early warning

				
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posted:12/25/2010
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