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Evolutionary Development of the Web Digital Self NextTech 2010

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Evolutionary Development of the Web Digital Self NextTech 2010 Powered By Docstoc
					The Digital Self
When Social Media Gets Personal



NextTech
CHM  Mountain View, CA
Mar 2010

John Smart, President,
Acceleration Studies Foundation
johnsmart@accelerating.org
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html
                        Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation              ▪ We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo
                          devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the
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                          universe contains both:
                          1.   Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that
                               we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and
                               creative paths (most of which will fail) and a small set of
                          2.   Convergent and predictable developmental constraints
                               (initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain
                               aspects of our long-range future.
                        ▪ Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to
                          the future of complex systems on Earth include:
                          –    Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
                               in our global sociotechnological systems
                          –    Increasing technological autonomy, and
                          –    Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical-
                               digital interface.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto                                                                           © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo):
                        The „Left and Right Hands‟ of Universal Change
Acceleration
Studies                 Some change is:
Foundation
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                        • Experimentation (Evo)
                        • Adaptation/Selection (EvoDevo)     “Natural Selection”
                        • Optimizing/Dominating (Devo)       Main Actor: Organism
                        Learn to tell the difference.        (Local Adaptation)
                                                             Requisite Variety
                                                             Mixed Attractors
                                                             Adaptation
                                 “Experimentation”                                        “Convergent Unification”
                                 Main Actor: Seed                                         Main Actor: Environment
                                 (Mostly Nonadapted)                                      (Global Adaptation)
                                 Stochastic Search                                        Environmental Optimization
                                 Strange Attractors                                       Standard Attractors
                                 Radiation                                                Hierarchy




                                    Evolution                                            Development
                              „Left Hand‟ of Change          Evo Devo               „Right Hand‟ of Change
Los Angeles                      New Phase Space ‘Opening’
                                                             (Intersection)         Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
New York
Palo Alto               For more: Evodevouniverse.com/wiki/project                                          © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        The „95/5%‟ Rule of Thumb:
                        Evolutionary and Developmental Contributions to Change
Acceleration
Studies                                                                            5% Devo
Foundation              ▪ The vast majority (perhaps 95%) of the events and
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                          computation to create or control a complex system
                          (organism, organization, technology, species, society)
                          involve bottom-up, local, evolutionary processes.
                                                                                   95% Evo
                        ▪ A minor yet critical subset (perhaps 5%) comes from
                          top-down, hierarchical, developmental processes.

                        A few examples:
                        ▪ Almost all genes in an organism (eg, 97-8% of Dicty DNA) change often
                          to create evolutionary variety vs. a special subset (2-3%) which form
                          the developmental toolkit and are highly conserved.
                        ▪ Almost all cells compete for their location in the organism. A very few
                          are fated to a particular location early in development.
                        ▪ Almost all ideas and actions in an organization will not persist. A
                          special few become stable strategies seen in all orgs of that type.
                        ▪ Almost all technology products and services are evolutionary
Los Angeles
New York                  experiments. A special few are destined to become the next big thing.
Palo Alto                                                                              © 2010 Accelerating.org
                          Are You Accelaware?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit




Free Energy Rate Density (Φ)
Substrate                                 (ergs/sec/gm)

Galaxies                                  0.5
Stars                                     2
Planets (Early)                           75
Ecosystems, Plants                        900 (10^2)
Animals (hum. body)                       20,000 (10^4)
Brains (human)                            150,000 (10^5)
Culture (human)                           500,000 (10^5)
Modern Engines                            10^5 to 10^8
Intel 8080 of the 1970's                  10^10
Pentium II of the 1990's                  10^11
Global AI of the 21st C                   10^12+
Los Angeles
                                                           Free energy rate density values in
New York
Cosmic
Palo Alto               Evolution, Eric Chaisson, 2001     hierarchically emergent CAS. © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        World Economic
                        Performance
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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                         GDP Per Capita in
                         Western Europe,
                         1000 – 1999 A.D.

                         The curve is quite smooth
                         on a macroscopic scale.
                         And superexponential.

                         Note the “knee of the
                         curve” occurs circa 1850,
                         at the Industrial
                         Revolution.

Los Angeles
New York                Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD,
Palo Alto               Angus Maddison, 2007                 © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        Data grows even faster than processing power and storage.
                        All these grow slightly superexponentially, believe it or not.

Acceleration
Studies                 Developing the algorithms to use all this power, storage, and data is the challenge.
Foundation
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                        For now, humans are by far the best algorithms we’ve got.




                                                                                 ▪ Computer power and storage
                                                                                   double every 18-24 months.
                                                                                 ▪ Created, captured and replicated
                                                                                   data doubles every 14-18 months.
                                                                                 ▪ By 2011 we‟ll be throwing away
                                                                                   half the digital data we generate.
                                                                                 ▪ A flood of underused capacity in
                                                                                   processing, even more in data.

Los Angeles
New York                The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil, 2005
Palo Alto               The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe, John Gantz, IDC, 2008                © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        The J Curve

Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit




                         First-Order Components
                         are Growth-Limited Hierarchical
                         Substrates (S and B Curves)
                         Second-Order
                          Hyperbolic Growth
                         Emergence Singularities
                         and a Limit Singularity


                        Examples:
                        ▪ Sagan‟s Cosmic Calendar
                        ▪ Chaisson‟s FERD (Complexity)
                        ▪ Global Economic Performance
                        ▪ Sci & Tech Performance Metrics
                        ▪ Cultural Adoption of Innovation
Los Angeles
New York
Accelerating Socio-Technological Evolution: From Ephemeralization and Stigmergy to the Global Brain, Francis Heylighen, 2007.
Palo Alto
                         As There is a Hype Cycle for Almost Any Technology:
                         Use “Other People‟s Innovation” Wherever You Can.
Acceleration
Studies                     95% of the time, you want to be a second mover / “fast follower”. (Evo)
Foundation                   Jump in or buy companies at the trough (Big co. acquisition strategy).
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                            5% of the time, you want to be a first mover / “pioneer”. (Devo)
                             Go early correctly and you‟ll get lock-in (Amazon, eBay, Google, Facebook…)

                                                                                                                       What
                                                                                                                 immature tech
                                                                                                                   products or
                                                                                                                   services do
                                                                                                                   you want to
                              Capacity/Impact




                                                                                                                  bet on next?
                                                                                                                       As a
                                                                                                                  fast follower
                                                                                                                  or a pioneer?
                                                                                                                      Are you
                                                                                                                     too early
                                                                                                                    or already
                                                                                                                    too late?
Los Angeles                                     Cumulative Production/Experience (Not Time)
New York
Palo Alto               The Well-Timed Strategy, Navarro, 2009; Mastering the Hype Cycle, Fenn & Raskino, 2008        © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        From the Metaverse to Metahumanity:
                        Evolutionary Development of the Web
                                                                                                Metaverseroadmap.org


Acceleration
Studies
Foundation              Web 1.0      Read Mainly (Graphical UI)                        Web
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                        Web 2.0      Read/Write/Play (Participatory, Social UI)
                        Web 3.0      Video (iTV, Geosocial Web, AR, VW, MW)         Metaverse
                        Web 4.0      Semantic (CI, Cyber/Lobbytwins, Valuecosm)
                        Web 5.0      Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain, NUI
                                                  „Tech and Social Singularity‟)
                                                                                   Metahumanity

                        We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback.
                        Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony
                        (iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking
                        (Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and
                        collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video
                        (YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second
                        Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin),
                        lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude).
                        Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA,
                        „Sociotech‟) than of artificial intelligence (AI, „Infotech‟).
                        This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction
Los Angeles             process society has ever engaged in.
New York
Palo Alto               Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.org   © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        Wearable Web:
                        24/7 Augmented Reality, Collective Intelligence
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit




                                                                             Necklace phone
                        „Bracelet phone‟ concept                             (Nokia 2004)
                        (Vodafone 2006)
                                                      „Carpal PC‟ concept
                                                      (Metaverse Roadmap 2007)




Los Angeles
                                                                         Flip Ultra (2007, $130)
New York
         Wearcam.org‟s            first-gen        iPhone (Apple 2007)   Top-selling camcorder.
Palo Alto„sousveillance‟          cams (2001)                                        © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the Conversational
                        Interface (CI): Circa 2012-2019
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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                                                                                   Siri.com. Amazing
                                                                                   NLP for phones today.

                                                                   Codebreaking
                                                                       follows a logistic curve.
                                                                   Collective NLP
                                                                       may as well.


                         Date Avg. Query        Platform                     Average spoken
                         1998 1.3 words         Altavista                    human-to-human
                         2005 2.6 words         Google                       complex query is
                                                                             8-11 words.
                         2012 5.2 words         GoogleHelp
                         2019 10.4 words        GoogleBrain
Los Angeles
Smart, J. 2003. The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.
New York
Halevy et. al. 2009. The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data, Intell. Sys. 24(2):8-12.
Palo Alto                                                                                   © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent
                        Interface (“CyberTwin”) in 2010? In 2020?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation                                             Nonverbal and verbal language in
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                                                       parallel is a much more efficient
                                                       communication modality.

                                                       Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps
                                                       only 1/3) of info in face-to-face
                                                       human conversation is nonverbal.




                             “Working with Phil” in Apple’s
                             Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
Los Angeles                                                                Ananova, 2000
New York
Palo Alto                                                                        © 2010 Accelerating.org
                         Milo (and Milly): The Faces of Xbox Natal.
                         Conversational Avatars for Kids.
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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                         ▪ A permanently better new primary way of interacting with our machines.
                         ▪ Start with a game (limited domain) and kids (patience for avatars of
                           limited intelligence).
                         ▪ Once this conversational interface is server-based, it will get smarter
                           every month. Like Google‟s does now. Then every week.
Los Angeles              ▪ A time when serious games can get serious.
New York
Palo Alto               Milo and Kate, Lionhead Studios, Peter Molyneux (Proposed Dec 2010)   © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        Circa 2020: The Symbiotic Age
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit   A Coevolution Between Saturating Humans
                        and Accelerating Technology.
                        A time when:
                        ▪ Complex things can “speak our language.”
                        ▪ Our technologies become very responsive to
                          our needs and desires.
                        ▪ Humans and machines are intimately
                          connected, and always improving each other.
                        ▪ We will begin to feel “naked” without our
                          computer “clothes.”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto                                                        © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        Symbiont Networks: The Extended Digital Self
                        A Post 2015 Emergence?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation              When we have an early Web 3.0, lifelogs, and pervasive
                          broadband connectivity, we can expect…
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                         150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page
                          2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7.
                         A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps
                          everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders).
                         Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with
                          symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals.
                          Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation.
                         New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off
                          for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.).
                         Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill)
                          and performance enhancement era begins.
                         Fantastic new subcultural diversity (geek symbionts, futurist
                          symbionts, Quaker symbionts, Shoppers United symbionts, etc.)
Los Angeles
Page,
New York Scott.          2008. The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms,
Schools and
Palo Alto                Societies, Princeton U. Press.                                          © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        Circa 2030: The Valuecosm
                        A More Pluralistic and Positive-Sum Future
Acceleration

                            Microcosm (Gilder), 1960‟s
Studies
Foundation
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                        
                           Telecosm (Gilder), 1990‟s
                           Datacosm (Sterling), 2010‟s
                           Valuecosm (Smart), 2030‟s
                            - Recording & Publishing Cybertwin Prefs
                            - Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
                            - Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
                            - Much Early Abuse (Marketing, Fraud, Advise)
                            - Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
                                Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
Los Angeles                 - Today‟s Leading Edge: Social Network Media
New York
Palo Alto                                                          © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        Your Cybertwin – Your Digital Self:
                        Helping You Now, Helping Others Later
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
                        “I would never upload my consciousness
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                                        into a machine.”
                         “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
                                        for my children.”
                        Prediction:
                        ▪ When your mother dies in 2040,
                          your digital mom will be “50% her.”
                        ▪ When your best friend dies in 2060,
                          your digital best friend will be “80% him.”
                        Successive approximation, seamless
                        integration, subtle transition… of you.
                        When you can shift your own conscious
                        perspective between your electronic and
                        biological components, the encapsulation
                        and transcendence of the biological should       Greg Panos and his Digital Mom
                        feel like only growth, not death.                    PersonaFoundation.org
Los Angeles
New York                We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Palo Alto                                                                                 © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        The Digital Self:
                        Social, Economic, and Political Implications
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation              Some Challenges - particularly early:
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                         Data Security and Privacy
                         Predictive Marketing and Profiling
                         Debt Slavery and Overconsumption
                         New Forms of Crime and Fraud
                         Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community)
                         Parenting (How early can kids have CT‟s?)
                         New Addictions and Dependencies (CT „relationships‟?)


                        Some Opportunities - particularly later:
                         Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your sentences?)
                         Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks)
                         Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety
                         Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier)
                         Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced)
                         Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation („lobby twins‟)
Los Angeles
New York                 Transparency and Accountablity of Corps, Institutions, Govts.
Palo Alto                                                                         © 2010 Accelerating.org
                        The Digital Self:
                        Biggest Single Catalyst We‟ll See in Our Lifetimes
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation              What Do You Want to Improve?
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                         IT/Infrastructure Mgmt
                         Identity Management
                         Social Networks
                         Video Management
                         Marketing
                         Education
                         Knowledge Management
                         Performance Management
                         Talent Management
                         Innovation
                         Social Responsibility
                         Environmental Sustainability
                         Organizational Development
                         Collective Foresight

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto                                                              © 2010 Accelerating.org
                            Tablet Form Factor as a Developmental Optimum:
                            What Uses Do You Predict? Which Will Emerge Next?
Acceleration
Studies                     What are the most exciting developmental uses for a tablet?
Foundation
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                            #1. iTV Remote! #2. e-Reading, #3 Video, #4 Games, #5 Clipboard.




         Apple iPad: No Apple TV.
          Too little, too closed.




                                                  Will Google
                                                 get this done?
                                                   A perfect
                                               YouTube front end.
      Lenovo Ideapad U1: Best
     multiuse design. June 2010

                           There are about 2.3 billion TVs in the world. 15,000+ streamable TV channels. Thousands
                            more sit on the web, waiting for bandwidth. May be hundreds of thousands by 2015.
                           25% of US TVs sold in Jan 2010 were connected by consumers to the internet (internally
                            or via a set top box, game console, DVD player), 40% of these were internally-enabled.
Los Angeles
New York                   Tablet TV Remote: Voice enabled, collaborative filtering of thousands of channels, 2ndary
Palo Alto                   screen, social viewing (chat, teamspeak), P2PTV, true internet television.      © 2010 Accelerating.org
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