BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL Political Risk by MikeJenny

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                                                                                          ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Regional Monthly Reports ................................................. 2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Dear BMI Customer,
Country-by-country coverage of political risk, macroeconomic
performance and outlook, industry and the business environment;
for senior executives in corporates, banks, government and
multilaterals                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Welcome to the Business Monitor International
  Asia Monitor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2005 Product Portfolio, which is packed with
  Latin America Monitor                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 existing and newly launched products and services,
  Middle East & Africa Monitor                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          designed to help senior executives in emerging
  Emerging Europe Monitor                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               markets across the world to control operating risks,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        better understand their markets, and develop
Quarterly Forecast Reports .............................................. 4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             business opportunities over the year ahead.
In-depth country data, analysis and 4-year forecasts for major
economies, covering government, the economy and leading
industry sectors; for strategic planners, treasurers and economists                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     If you are a financial markets professional or finance
  Asia                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  director, you will be interested in our weekly report
  Latin America                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Emerging Markets Monitor, tracking debt, equity and
  Middle East & Africa                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  forex developments on a regional basis each week. You
  Emerging Europe                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       may also be interested, along with country managers and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        economists, in our range of monthly Monitor titles,
Weekly Report ....................................................................... 6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 comprising of 18 monthly executive reports covering
Essential coverage of emerging markets bonds, equities and forex                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        political risk, macroeconomic performance, finance and
developments, for financial professionals and investment managers                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       industry developments across Asia, Latin America,
  Emerging Markets Monitor                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        strategists should also consider our range of 52 Quarterly
Online Services .................................................................... 7                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Country Forecast Reports, providing independent and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        authoritative 4-year economic forecasts on which to base
Country Risk & Forecast - Daily news and analyses, country risk                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         budgetary and business plans.
ratings, macroeconomic analyses and forecasts, capital markets analyses
and views
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Our series of Quarterly Industry Reports features new
Industry & Market Research - Daily industry news and trend
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        sectors for 2005, and now covers Autos, Chemicals,
analyses, market overviews, quarterly industry surveys and 5-year
forecasts, competitive intelligence
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Commercial Banking, Defence & Security, Food & Drink,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Freight Transport, Infrastructure, Insurance, IT, Oil & Gas,
Company Research & Intelligence - Daily company news and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Petrochemicals, Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare,
analyses, comprehensive company profiles and competitive intelligence                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Telecommunications and Tourism in major emerging
covering FDI, projects, JVs, M&A, etc.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  markets, including 5-year industry forecasts, trend
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        analysis and competitive intelligence. We can also offer
Quarterly Industry Reports ............................................... 8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            you a series of newly researched Directories covering
Country reports covering key industry sectors, with 5-year                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              leading industry sectors, plus Yearbooks profiling top
forecasts, competitive landscapes, trend analyses and company                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           foreign company subsidiaries operating in major emerging
profiles; for industry analysts, economists and senior management
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        markets worldwide.
  Autos Chemicals Commercial Banking Defence & Security
  Food & Drink Freight Transport Infrastructure Insurance
  IT Oil & Gas Petrochemicals Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              All our products are ideal for your business development,
  Telecoms Tourism                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      marketing and sales drives. Plus we can also offer our
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        customers a choice of three powerful, interactive Online
Foreign CompaniesYearbooks ........................................ 10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Services covering country risk and macroeconomic
Country Yearbooks and CD-ROMs featuring fully researched                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                performance, leading industry sectors, and top
senior executives at top American, British, Japanese, German,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           multinational companies, designed for network and
French and other multinational companies active in leading markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      intranet environments.
  Asia
  Latin America                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         To place orders, or to make inquiries, please contact the
  Middle East & Africa
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Tel: +44 (0)20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0)20 7236 3179
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Email: subs@businessmonitor.com
Industry Directories .......................................................... 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Web: www.businessmonitor.com
Industry Directories featuring fully researched senior executives at
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top multinational companies active in leading markets
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 Oil & Gas
 Pharmaceuticals
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1
Monthly Monitors




                                                                                                     ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BMI’s range of monthly Monitors provide political risk                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ISSN 1474-5615




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Asia Monitor
assessment and macroeconomic analysis and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           China & North East Asia                                                                                                                            Vol 12                  Issue 1                  JANUARY 2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        JANUARY



forecasts for corporates, banks, government                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         CHINA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Business Monitor International’s monthly regional report on political risk and macroeconomic prospects


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   TOP STORIES


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    China to resist Yuan                                                                                                          South Korea – Nuclear Tests Affect Talks

departments, business libraries and research centres.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               pressure
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     The IAEA has decided not to refer Seoul’s atomic experiments
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     to the UN Security Council, welcoming the corrective measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     taken, but a delegation from the UN agency intends to carry out
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     more inspections in December. BMI View: There is concern
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     that South Korea’s admission of clandestine tests may undermine
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The Chinese are being put under increasing pressure to allow their
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     nuclear talks with North Korea, giving Pyongyang a chance to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    currency to appreciate against the US dollar. BMI View: While some
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     deflect criticism from its own nuclear activities.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    change in the exchange rate regime is likely, any change when it does

Our 18 monthly monitors provide essential coverage each month of major                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              come, will be marginal, and probably involve switching the dollar peg to a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    basket of currencies.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  China
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                page 11



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    CHINA IS COMING under increasing                              lar, and the South Korean won all ap-

political, economic and financial developments across emerging markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              pressure to allow its exchange rate to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    appreciate. The pressure reached re-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    newed urgency after the US dollar fell
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    to a new all-time low against the euro of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  preciating by at least 5%. However,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  while this appreciation is not insignifi-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  cant, it is nothing compared with the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  50% appreciation that the euro has ex-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Economic Outlook.................................... pages 1-4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Political Outlook .......................................... page 4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Hong Kong
worldwide. Each Monitor contains systematic, country-by-country analyses of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         US$1.33/EUR on November 26. Coun-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    tries of the eurozone, which have so far
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    borne the brunt of the dollar’s fall, are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    keen for the burden of this readjust-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  perienced since 2002.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     It appears therefore that Asian cur-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  rencies have further to rise against the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  dollar, if they are to play their full part
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Economic Outlook.................................... pages 6-7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Political Outlook .......................................... page 7

recent and likely changes in political risk, economic performance and prospects,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ment to be shared through Asian coun-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    tries allowing their currencies to appre-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ciate.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       To some extent this is already hap-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  in the global readjustment. However,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  any appreciation is likely to remain
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  modest until China decides to loosen
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  its own peg against the dollar, which
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Taiwan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Economic Outlook..................................... page 8-9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    pening, and a number of Asian coun-                           has remained at CNY8.3/US$ since

industrial activity, finance and the business environment. Country analyses in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      tries have allowed their currencies to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    rise against the dollar since September,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    with the Japanese yen, the Taiwan dol-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1994. The Chinese government itself
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  has now said that it will move to a more
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  continued on page 2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   REGIONAL RISK PROFILE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Rating              Rank*               Trend
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Short-Term Political Risk

each report are underpinned every month by latest available tabulated data                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          TAIWAN                                                                                                                        South Korea
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Taiwan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              63.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              69.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    88
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    60


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Economy to slow in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  China                                                       74.0                  48
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Hong Kong                                                   75.0                  40


covering all major macroeconomic indicators, plus authoritative 12- and 24-month                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Short-Term Economic Risk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  South Korea
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Taiwan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              81.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              82.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     8



forecasts drawn from BMI’s databases.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  China                                                       84.0                   4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Taiwan’s economy is forecast to slow in 2005, despite strong growth in the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Hong Kong                                                   74.0                  27
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    first three quarters of 2004. BMI View: The forecast is based on the                                                          trend arrows reflect significant movement in the same direction. *out of 130 global markets rated. A high
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    assumption that export growth will slow, the oil price will remain high, and                                                  rating is an indicator of low risk. A low rank indicates low risk.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    monetary policy will continue to tighten.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Risk Focus: Hong Kong Short-Term Political Risk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    TAIWAN’S ECONOMY expanded by                                  second. The growth rate was broadly in                          The leader of Hong Kong’s biggest democratic party will stand
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    5.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the third                        line with expectations, and, as a result,                       down in December 2005, following the poor showing of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    quarter of 2004. This brought the aver-                       BMI’s full-year growth forecast re-                             Democratic Party in the city’s legislative elections in September.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    age growth rate for the first nine months                     mains on 6.0%. Growth is, however,                              Yeung Sum made his decision after increasing pressure from
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    of the year to 6.6%, after growth of                          set to fall in 2005 to 4.7%, due to slower                      party members to resign, and is now likely to be replaced by the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    6.7% in the first quarter and 7.9% in the                                                      continued on page 8            party’s vice chairman, Lee Wing-Tat.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL’s country risk
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global           75,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Analyst: Nicholas Owen
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    markets.                                                      located across global markets.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sub-Editors: Daniella Bergman/Lee Cheshire




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ASIA MONITOR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   CHINA & NORTH EAST ASIA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   A 12-page monthly report covering:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, North and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   South Korea


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   SOUTH ASIA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   An 8-page monthly reportcovering:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh
                                  LIST OF CONTENTS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   SOUTH EAST ASIA VOL 1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   An 8-page monthly report covering:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Cambodia
       COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY COVERAGE
       Each Monitor features systematic country-by-country coverage, comprising                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    SOUTH EAST ASIA VOL 2
       essential news, analysis and forecasts, backed by a wealth of charts, graphs                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                An 8-page monthly report covering:
       and tables, covering key political, economic and financial developments.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Indonesia, The Philippines, Singapore and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Malaysia

       COUNTRY RISK SUMMARIES
       Political risk: Government stability, elections, cabinet changes, key
       policymakers, outlook for policy continuity, political opposition and popular
       dissent, the military, unions and international relations.

       Macroeconomic risk: Economic performance and outlook for GDP growth,
       industrial activity, inflation, forex and interest rates, trade, investment, debt

       Business environment risk: Government policy on inward investment and
       trade, industry, privatisation and economic reform, FTZs, tax, infrastructure,
       project finance, labour market, IP, environment.

       MACROECONOMIC ANALYSES & FORECASTS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             PUBLICATION DETAILS
       Business Monitor International’s country-by-country views on economic                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 PRICES                                                                                                    US$                                                             £                                             €
       performance and outlook are supported by our database of historic and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Any 1 Report                                                                                US$590                                                             £325                                           €470
       latest-available headline economic indicators, plus 12-and 24-month
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Any 2 Reports                                                                               US$925                                                             £525                                           €730
       forecasts. Every issue of the Monitors carries tables, charts and graphs for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Any 3 Reports                                                                               US$1190                                                            £650                                           €925
       each country, covering:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             All 4 Reports                                                                               US$1290                                                            £740                                           €995
       Real GDP growth (% pa), Manufacturing output (% pa), Inflation (end period, % y/y), Short-
       term interest rates (%), Exchange rate/US$ (end period), Exports (US$bn), Oil output (mn b/
       d), Oil/gas exports (US$bn), Imports (US$bn), Trade balance (US$bn), Current account
       (US$bn), Current account as % of GDP, Foreign reserves (US$bn), Stock market
       performance, Import cover (mths), External debt (US$bn), External debt as % of exports.

       BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT UPDATE
       Recent and likely changes in corporate legislation and government policy
       toward foreign trade, investment, labour, prices, infrastructure, environment
       and capital markets; outlook for corporate profitability, trade liberalisation,
       structural economic reform and privatisation.




2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            political risk, macroeconomic analysis and forecasts




 ISSN 0265-9093                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ISSN 1744-1744                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ISSN 1469-526X




 Latin America Monitor                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Emerging Europe Monitor                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Middle East Monitor
 Andean                                                                                                                                                 Vol 22                  Issue 1                  January 2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                         January                                   Central Europe & Baltics                                                                                                                               Vol 12                  Issue 1                  January 2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           January                            East Med                                                                                                                                                                                    Vol 15                                                      Issue 1                                                          January
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       January 2005

                                     Business Monitor International’s monthly regional report on political risk and macroeconomic prospects                                                                                                                                            Business Monitor International’s monthly regional report on political risk and macroeconomic prospects                                                                                                                                     Business Monitor International’s monthly regional report on political risk and macroeconomic prospects


 VENEZUELA                                                                                                                       TOP STORIES                                                                                                       HUNGARY                                                                                                                         TOP STORIES                                                                                                TURKEY                                                                                                                          TOP STORIES


 Killing stokes tensions                                                                                                       Dominican Republic – CAFTA Compromise?
                                                                                                                                  The Dominican Republic’s membership of the (yet to be ratified)                                                  Hungary to withdraw                                                                                                           Czech Republic – A Case For Early Elections?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The senior government member, the Social Democratic Party                                                 Fearing east, moving                                                                                                          Syria – US Will Keep The Heat On
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               The re-election of US President Bush suggests the US will keep


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   from Iraq                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  west
                                                                                                                                  Central American Free Trade Pact (CAFTA) hangs in the balance                                                                                                                                                                                     (CSSD), has suffered crushing defeats in regional and Senate elec-                                                                                                                                                                         up pressure on Syria. Washington is particularly worried about
 The assassination of federal prosecutor Danilo Anderson has catapulted                                                           following the introduction of a 25% tax on US corn syrup im-                                                                                                                                                                                      tions. Opposition parties claim that the CSSD has lost the man-                                                                                                                                                                            flows of militants and weapons across the border into Iraq, and
 Venezuelan politics back into the limelight, highlighting the polarisation of                                                    ports. BMI View: Facing strong opposition from all corners, both                                                                                                                                                                                  date to rule, and have called for early elections. BMI View: The                                                                                                                                                                           some within the administration even think that the Syrian military
 the political spectrum. BMI View: Although this is more likely an isolated                                                       locally and in the US, President Leonel Fernández will be under                                                                                                                                                                                   constitutional requirements for an early vote mean that a deci-                                                                                                                                                                            are involved. BMI View: Military action is unlikely – resources
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   The Hungarian parliament has failed to approve an extension to the                                                                                                                                                                         December and January are key months for Turkey’s long term foreign
 incident and not indicative of a descent to the level of violence seen in the                                                    increasing pressure to find a compromise in order to salvage the                                                                                                                                                                                  sion on this will remain in the CSSD’s hands. It therefore seems                                                                                                                                                                           are already stretched and the public are unlikely to support an-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   deployment of troops in Iraq. As a consequence, the country’s 300-strong                                                                                                                                                                   relations goal. The most important date is December 16, when the EU
 likes of Colombia, a successful official investigation is crucial to easing                                                      agreement, which could be extremely beneficial to the long-term                                                                                                                                                                                   likely that a vote will be postponed in order to give the party                                                                                                                                                                            other war – but veiled threats will continue as the US tries to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   military contingent will be withdrawn by end-2004. BMI View: The vote                                                                                                                                                                      Council of Ministers meets to decide on Turkey’s application for member-
 tensions.                                                                                                                        Dominican recovery.                                                                                                                                                                                                                               time to win back support.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  deter Syrian intervention in Iraq.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   represents a major blow to the ruling Socialists’ policy of participation in                                                                                                                                                               ship, a move that would confer significant political and economic rewards
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 page 5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          page 7
 JUST AS IT appeared that the political                        2002 attempted coup to oust President                                                                                                                           page 3              the reconstruction and stabilisation of Iraq. While the impending return of                                                                                                                                                                over the medium term. However, the January elections scheduled for Iraq
 scene was quietening following the                            Hugo Chávez. Indeed, it is reported                             Barbados- Political Outlook ...................... pages 1-2                                                        Hungary’s soldiers may appease domestic opponents of their mission, we                                                        Hungary                                                                                                      are also of significant interest to Ankara, given its own restive Kurdish                                                     Egypt
 resolution of the divisive referendum                         that Anderson was involved in all of the                                                                                                                                            believe that the potential political and economic ramifications of their                                                      Political Outlook ....................................... pages 1-2                                          population and the dangers of continued instability in its near neighbour.
 issue and the largely peaceful execu-                         politically sensitive cases for the Attor-                      Guyan - Economic Outlook ...................... pages 1,4                                                           departure will cause the Hungarian authorities considerable concern.                                                                                                                                                                       BMI View: With a positive report by the EU looking likely, a low key                                                          Economic Outlook.................................... pages 1,2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Economic Outlook...................................... pages 3
 tion of the municipal elections, the                          ney General’s office. The government                            Jamaica - Political Outlook ........................... page 5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 approach to the problem should enable the government to overcome the
 murder of a prominent federal prosecu-                        was quick to blame the attack on oppo-                                                                                                                                              IN NOVEMBER 2004, the national                                of Hungarian troops before Iraqi                                Poland                                                                                                       most significant dangers.                                                                                                     Turkey
                                                                                                                               Puerto Rico - Economic Outlook ................ page 6
 tor in late November and the subse-                           sition elements (despite the fact that                                                                                                                                              assembly voted in favour of a motion to                       elections (in January 2005) would                               Political Outlook ....................................... pages 1,4
 quent police investigation into the kill-                     many opposition parties condemned                               Trinidad & Tobago - Political Outlook ........ page 7                                                               maintain the presence of soldiers in                          undermine the purpose of their                                                                                                                                               THE EU COMMISSION’S positive                                     There is strong opposition to Turkish                        Political Outlook .......................................... page 4
 ing has once again brought tensions to                        the killing), frustrated with the out-                                                                                                                                              Iraq to March 2005, by 191 votes to                           deployment.                                                     Slovakia                                                                                                     report on Turkey’s application for ac-                        entry in both France and Germany which
 the boil. In the first politically moti-                      comes of the referendum and the gov-
                                                                                                                               Cuba............................................................. page 8                                            159. However, despite strong support                            Nevertheless, Gyurcsany had previ-                            Economic Outlook....................................... page 6                                               cession in October should set the stage                       could tip the balance towards a condi-                          Israel
 vated assassination in the country since                      ernment clean sweep in the local polls,                         Haiti.............................................................. page 9                                          from the governing coalition of                               ously acknowledged that the country’s                           Estonia                                                                                                      for the Council of Ministers to agree a                       tional offer if either government (but
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Political Outlook .......................................... page 6
 the 1960s, Danilo Anderson was killed                         and mooted draft proposals for tighter                                                                                                                                              Socialists and Free Democrats,                                participation in military efforts to sta-                                                                                                                                    start date in December. The govern-                           most likely France) feels a need to
                                                                                                                               Montserrat .................................................. page 10                                                                                                                                                                             Economic Outlook....................................... page 7
 when a bomb planted in his car deto-                          anti-terrorism legislation in response.                                                                                                                                             sufficient opposition was mounted by                          bilise Iraq imposed both a political cost,                                                                                                                                   ments of all the major states – including                     placate its domestic constituency. There                        Lebanon
 nated in the Santa Monica/Bello Monte                            Meanwhile, the official investiga-                           St Lucia ........................................................ page 11                                           centre-right parties to ensure that the                       related to the scarcity of public support,                      Latvia                                                                                                       Germany, Italy, France (President                             is also widespread hostility within Aus-
 area of Caracas.                                              tion into the assassination has made
                                                                                                                               Suriname ..................................................... page 12                                              result fell short of the two-thirds                           and an economic cost, in terms of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Economic Outlook....................................... page 8                                               Chirac at least) and the UK – all firmly                      tria, with the situation there compli-                          Economic Outlook....................................... page 8
 The murder of Anderson is particularly                        some progress, although this has been                                                                                                                                               majority required to carry the motion.                        associated fiscal burden. But, consist-                                                                                                                                      support Turkish entry. This should be                         cated by a threat by the far-right Free-
 significant given that he had been in-                        marred to some extent by the death of a                          REGIONAL RISK PROFILE                                                                                              The vote was preceded by a plea from                          ent with the foreign policy strategy of                          REGIONAL RISK PROFILE                                                                                       enough to carry the support of smaller                        dom Party to withdraw from the ruling
 volved in the trials of hundreds of peo-                      several suspects during gun battles with                                                                                                                                            Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany, who                          the government of his predecessor, Peter                                                                                                                                     states, but a positive decision is not yet                    coalition if Austria supports Turkish                             OIL MARKET OUTLOOK
 ple suspected of involvement in the                                                           continued on page 4                                                                     Rating              Rank*               Trend               warned parliament that the withdrawal                                                         continued on page 2                                                                     Rating               Rank               Trend        a certainty.                                                                                  continued on page 4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            50.0
                                                                                                                               Short-Term Political Risk                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Short-Term Political Risk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            45.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Czech Republic                                              70.0                  57
 COLOMBIA                                                                                                                      Barbados                                                     79.0                 31                                POLAND                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     EGYPT
                                                                                                                               Trinidad & Tobago                                            73.0                 51                                                                                                                                                              Slovakia                                                    75.0                  40                                                                                                                                                       40.0




 Parallel successes                                                                                                                                                                                                                                The stain of corruption                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sinai shock should be
                                                                                                                               Jamaica                                                      61.0                 89                                                                                                                                                              Hungary                                                     70.0                  57                                                                                                                                                       35.0

                                                                                                                               Dominican Republic                                           70.0                 89                                                                                                                                                              Poland                                                      61.0                  97
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            30.0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              short-lived
                                                                                                                               Short-Term Economic Risk                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Short-Term Economic Risk                                                                                                                                                                                                                   25.0

 There have been developments in both domestic politics and security                                                                                                                                                                               The political left has become embroiled in a far-reaching corruption                                                          Czech Republic                                              64.0                  53                                                                                                                                                       20.0
                                                                                                                               Barbados                                                     57.0                70
 issues in recent weeks, with parliament approving a constitutional amend-                                                                                                                                                                         scandal which centres upon the country’s largest oil refiner and retailer,




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                                                                                                                               Trinidad & Tobago                                            78.0                20                                                                                                                                                               Slovakia                                                    59.0                  65
 ment to allow presidential re-election (pending review by the Constitu-                                                       Jamaica                                                      37.0               117                                 PKN Orlen. BMI View: Despite the stable interim leadership of the                                                             Hungary                                                     55.0                  79
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   government of Marek Belka, the ruling Socialists continue to suffer from                                                                                                                                                                   The government expects tourist receipts will fall US$200mn below target
 tional Court) and progress continuing on disarming the AUC. BMI View:                                                         Dominican Republic                                           45.0               104                                                                                                                                                               Poland                                                      53.0                  86
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   alleged corruption between their politicians and business elites. In this                                                                                                                                                                  in 2004, due to the impact of the Taba bombings. BMI View: As a result,                                                       Brent crude, US$/b. Source: Reuters

 The controversial issue of extradition could yet hinder peace negotiations,                                                   trend arrows reflect significant movement in the same direction. *out of 130 global markets rated. A high
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 trend arrows reflect significant movement in the same direction. *out of 130 global markets rated. A high

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   context, the political centre-right, which has prepared a strong anti-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 rating is an indicator of low risk. A low rank indicates low risk.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              we have cut 0.2 percentage points from our forecast for growth in FY04/                                                       The OPEC basket has averaged around US$36/b so far in 2004,
 particularly since both sides appear reluctant to concede ground.                                                             rating is an indicator of low risk. A low rank indicates low risk.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   corruption platform, appears the greatest beneficiary.                                                                                                                                                                                     05, but the stimulus of economic reforms will boost growth in FY05/06.                                                        although prices have fallen markedly from a high of over
 SUBSTANTIAL ATTENTION has                                     involves amending the constitution and,                         Risk Focus: Puerto Rico Short-Term Economic Risk                                                                                                                                                                                                  Risk Focus: Poland Short-Term Political Outlook                                                                                                                                                                                            US$47/b in October. Consequently, the upside risks to our year-
 been paid in recent months to the con-                        as such, has meant that the bill must be                        Moody’s has assigned a Baa1 rating and negative outlook to                                                          SINCE THE DEPARTURE from gov-                                 leadership. However, a parliamentary                            Members of the governing Democratic Left Alliance (SLD)                                                      SECURITY CONCERNS pose some                                   gramme of economic reform presents                              average forecast of US$35/b are relatively minor. Assuming
 gressional debate on presidential re-                         approved in eight separate legislative                          Puerto Rican bond issues. The rating reflects growing concerns                                                      ernment of ex-Prime Minister Leszek                           investigation into political impropriety                        appear to be in conflict over whether to hold early elections in May                                         downside risk to economic activity,                           major upside risks to growth across all                         current stock building trends, prices should continue to moder-
 election, since the successful passage                        votes, spread across two concurrent                             over the island’s financial performance, primarily the failure to                                                   Miller in May 2003, amid accusations                          concerning the country’s largest oil re-                        2005, or wait until October, the latest month permitted under the                                            following the triple bombing in the                           sectors.                                                        ate in Q4, although high demand in the northern hemisphere
 of the bill would allow the popular                           legislative sessions. Despite the fact                          balance the budget without resorting to loans in 2003 and 2004, the                                                 of corruption, Poland’s ruling Demo-                          finer and retailer, PKN Orlen, has dem-                         constitution. Proponents of a later poll hope that a projected fall in                                       Sinai in October. Although this will                            Overall, officials say the economic                           winter, alongside solid demand growth from emerging markets
 President Álvaro Uribe to run for a                           that the final four votes required a quali-                     structural imbalance in the 2005 fiscal budget, and the growth in                                                   cratic Left Alliance (SLD) has tried to                       onstrated that public opinion of the                            unemployment and increasing absorption of EU subsidies will                                                  cause a dip in the key tourism sector in                      impact of the bombings will be limited,                         over the next year, will underpin prices. Consequently, our
 second term in office. The proposal                                                            continued on page 2            unfunded pension liabilities.                                                                                       recover its approval ratings under new                                                         continued on page 4            strengthen the SLD’s re-election prospects.                                                                  2005, the government’s ongoing pro-                                                           continued on page 2             2005 forecast of US$31/b looks relatively sound for now.

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LATIN AMERICA                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     EMERGING EUROPE                                                                                                                                                                                                                            MIDDLE EAST &
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                                LIST OF CONTENTS


                  POLITICAL OUTLOOK                                                     down in detail by principal macroeconomic indicators:-
                  Political forecast: BMI’s assessment of political risk over           recent and future sectoral contribution to GDP;
                  the next four years, with analysis of the key factors that will       employment/unemployment trends, indicative/minimum
                  impact on the forecast scenario.                                      wage rates; main determinants of CPI, forecasts for annual
                                                                                        average and end-year inflation; analysis of exchange rate
                  Legislative system: Balance of power between executive,               regime (nominal/real, official/black), recent interest rate
                  congress, parliament, state/provinces. Incumbent                      trends, indicative commercial bank lending and deposit
                  administration, key personalities and policy-makers.                  rates; review of official and independent forecasts.

                  Political stability: Recent elections and future timetable,           Background to economy and policy-making
                  prospects for constitutional reform; effectiveness of                 environment: market size, economic structure,
                  opposition parties, likely impact of government changes on            macroeconomic trends from 1970s to 2004 covering growth
                  business; role of public and private sector unions, political         performance, inflation, external accounts, foreign
                  role of the military; longterm threats to stability; risks of civil   indebtedness and assets.
                  rest or insurgency.
                                                                                        Today’s economic policy environment: The
                  International trade and foreign relations: International trade        government’s current macroeconomic strategy and likely
                  and geopolitical factors driving foreign policy; relations with       implementation problems; fiscal and monetary policies
                  US, Europe and Japan; trade blocs and multilateral                    liable to change over forecast period.
                  organisations.
                                                                                        Structural economic reforms: Government policy toward
                  DOMESTIC ECONOMIC OUTLOOK                                             import/export sector, public sector (privatisation and market
                                                                                        deregulation), capital markets, foreign direct investment,
                  Economic forecast & recent performance: BMI’s 4-year
                                                                                        domestic investment (infrastructure, social spending,
                  forecast (2005-2008) for the domestic economy, broken




4
                                                                                   in-depth country data, analysis and 3-year forecasts




          MEXICO                                                  POLAND                                                  SOUTH AFRICA




LATIN AMERICA                                           EUROPE                                                 MIDDLE EAST
Argentina                                               Baltic States                                          & AFRICA
Brazil                                                  Bulgaria                                               Bahrain, Oman & Yemen
East Caribbean                                          Central Asia                                           Egypt
Chile                                                   Croatia                                                Iran
Colombia                                                Cyprus                                                 Iraq
Mexico                                                  Czech Republic                                         Israel
Peru                                                    Greece                                                 Jordan, Lebanon & Syria
Venezuela                                               Hungary                                                Kuwait
West Caribbean                                          Macedonia                                              North Africa
                                                        Poland                                                 Saudi Arabia
                                                        Romania                                                South Africa
                                                        Russia                                                 Turkey
                                                        Serbia & Montenegro                                    UAE
                                                        Slovakia                                               Zimbabwe
                                                        Slovenia
                                                        Ukraine




   education, R&D, etc.) and foreign portfolio investment. Key                GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK
   problem areas: Control of inflation and public spending,                   BMI’s global economic forecast and impact on the
   managing growth, foreign reserves position, infrastructure                 economy: BMI’s 4-year forecast for the global economy:
   bottlenecks, closed areas of economy, regional disparities.                growth, inflation, trade, interest rates, exchange rates,
                                                                              commodity prices; the impact of US, Japan and the euro-
   EXTERNAL SECTOR OUTLOOK                                                    zone.
   External sector forecast: BMI’s 4-year forecast for the
   external sector, broken down by imports, exports, services,                KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS
   current account, reserves, external debt and finances.                     Performance, policy and 5-year forecast for key sectors:

   Recent trends in merchandise trade: Key exports/                           • Autos
   imports by commodity and partner, trends in invisibles                     • Chemicals
   account (shipping, tourism, insurance), analysis of current                • Commercial Banking
   account.                                                                   • Defence & Security
                                                                              • Food & Drink
   Status of foreign reserves, import cover, foreign                          • Freight Transport
   investment and debt: Principal sources of foreign                          • Infrastructure
   financing; impact of current account financing on economic                 • Information Technology
   policy; structure of external debt and major creditors,                    • Insurance
   external debt projections over forecast period (absolute, %                • Oil & Gas
   of GDP, % of exports) and likelihood of rescheduling/debt                  • Petrochemicals
   problems over forecast period; foreign assets position.                    • Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
                                                                              • Telecommunications
                                                                              • Tourism




                                                                                                                                          5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       assess risk and track market sentiment



Emerging Markets Monitor




                                                                               ...............................................................................................................................................................
Emerging Markets Monitor is a 20-page
weekly brief providing financial market,
political risk and economic analysis,
together with specific forecasts on foreign
exchange, bonds and equities across global
emerging markets, relied upon by financial
professionals and investment managers.
Emerging Markets Monitor (EMM) has become a leading source
of weekly intelligence on foreign exchange, equities and bonds
across global emerging markets, covering Asia Pacific, Latin
America, Central & Eastern Europe, Russia and CIS, the Middle
East and Africa. Each week, the award winning treasury team
analyses market movements, providing clear asset class
recommendations, backed by in-house macroeconomic
forecasts.

    Need to know (but hard to find) latest news, analysis and strategy
    across global emerging markets.

    Analysis of political risk and economic fundamentals, together with
    specific views on foreign exchange, bonds and equities across the
    regions by BMI’s award winning treasury team.

    Explicit short- and medium-term currency forecasts, backed by
    macroeconomic data and forecasts.

    Graphs and charts to underpin the analysis behind headline stories,
    as well as a data summary section

    Weekly data on foreign exchange, bonds and equities for all key
    emerging markets.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         PUBLICATION DETAILS AND PRICES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 EMERGING MARKETS MONITOR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 A 20-page weekly report (48 issues per annum)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Delivery options: Airmail/ 1st class post/ email PDF

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 PRICES                            US$                    £               €
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Annual subscription             US$2185                £1250           €1750

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 To order any of the above reports, please contact the Subscriptions Dept on
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 or email subs@businessmonitor.com



                                                                LIST OF CONTENTS


      REGIONAL MARKET ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                                   BMI VIEWS
      On a regional basis, BMI’s treasury team analyses the implications of                                                                                                                                                                      These represent the most recent views on the future short- or medium-
      the week’s key developments within global emerging markets, from                                                                                                                                                                           term price action of currencies, equities, fixed income and
      asset class movements, to economic data and political events,                                                                                                                                                                              commodities, as well as on economic and political developments
      contextualising the analysis within the framework of our own forecasts                                                                                                                                                                     throughout global emerging markets.
      on foreign exchange, equity and fixed income price action.

      CURRENCY SNAPSHOTS                                                                                                                                                                                                                         BMI BOND SENTIMENT INDEX
      Focus each week on one currency from Latin America, Asia, emerging                                                                                                                                                                         BMI takes a monthly gauge of how the leading investment banks are
      Europe and one currency from either the Middle East or Africa. Focus                                                                                                                                                                       weighting their sovereign external debt portfolios within global
      is on short-term technical movements and medium-term                                                                                                                                                                                       emerging markets, setting it in the context of our own analysis. The
      macroeconomic fundamentals and outlook, providing explicit short-                                                                                                                                                                          banks’ positions are aggregated to formulate a consensus view
      and medium-term currency forecasts.                                                                                                                                                                                                        towards the country, with the composite of the country indices
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 becoming the regional sentiment indicator, and so on for the global
      FOREX, EQUITY AND FIXED INCOME TABLES                                                                                                                                                                                                      emerging markets index.
      Tables indicating latest week, previous week, previous end-year data,
      with % change on the week, and % change on the previous year.




6
                                                                                 daily online news, analysis, data and forecasts



Business Monitor Online (BMO)

COUNTRY RISK & FORECAST
• Daily news, risk ratings, macroeconomic
 forecasts, financial markets analysis
  Designed to meet the daily online information requirements of senior
  executives at multinational companies, financial institutions,
  governments and multilateral organisations doing business or
  research. The service is unique in combining intra-daily alerts from our
  treasuries and capital markets team, and comparative risk ratings,
  macroeconomic analyses and forecasts, and industry profiles from our
  team of country economists. The service features a fully interactive
  database comprising macroeconomic and industry data, with BMI
  forecasts based on our econometric model.



 WWW.BUSINESSMONITOR.COM/BMO



INDUSTRY & MARKET RESEARCH
• AUTOS • CHEMICALS • COMMERCIAL BANKING • DEFENCE & SECURITY • FOOD & DRINK • FREIGHT TRANSPORT • INFRASTRUCTURE
• INSURANCE • IT • OIL & GAS • PETROCHEMICALS • PHARMACEUTICALS & HEALTHCARE • TELECOMMUNICATIONS • TOURISM

• Daily industry news and analyses, and quarterly
 country surveys with 4-year industry forecasts
  The service covers 14 industry sectors (see list above), and is used by
  industry professionals, analysts and strategists for competitive
  analysis and benchmarking. Each industry service features daily news
  and analyses covering major industry and company developments;
  quarterly country surveys with 4-year forecasts for all headline
  indicators; comprehensive company profiles and competitive
  intelligence.


 WWW.BUSINESSMONITOR.COM/IND



COMPANY RESEARCH & INTELLIGENCE
• Top multinational company networks, competitive
 intelligence, news and analysis
  Features 166,000 fully researched senior executives at 58,800
  leading multinational companies. The service is used by
  marketing and sales executives for business development and
  competitor analysis. Includes multinational company profiles
  and site networks; competitive intelligence covering sales
  volume, employee size, market share, ownership structure,
  foreign direct investment and project activity, and analysis of
  latest company developments.



 WWW.BUSINESSMONITOR.COM/ACADEMIC/
 PROJECT_COMPANY.HTML




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                                                                              or email sales@businessmonitor.com


                                                                                                                                        7
Quarterly Industry Reports




                                                                                                  ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Business Monitor International’s Quarterly Industry
Reports cover 14 major industry sectors across a
range of key markets.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            The China
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Autos
Each Report features global and regional overviews; market overviews; BMI’s                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Report
5-year industry forecasts, supported by commentary and analysis of downside
risks; competitive landscapes and intelligence; trend analysis of latest industry
developments, and profiles of leading national and multinational companies.
The Quarterly Industry Reports are used by industry analysts, economists and
senior management to plan company strategy, manage risks and identify new
opportunities.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 The Hungary
                       PUBLICATION DETAILS AND PRICES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Chemicals
    Issues per annum                                Delivery options
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Report
    4 issues per industry report per annum          Airmail/ 1st class post/ email PDF

    PRICES                                                    US$                     £     €
    Price per country/industry report                        US$675                 £390   €560

    Discount package prices for multiple countries/industries are available on request.

    To order, please contact the Subscriptions Department on
    +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 or email subs@businessmonitor.com



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 The Libya
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Defence & Security
                                  LIST OF CONTENTS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Report



             • Executive Summaries highlighting BMI’s 5-year industry
             forecasts and analysis, landmark company developments,
             and latest changes in the business operating and
             regulatory environment.

             • Market Overviews covering industry structure, size and
             value; industry landscape and key players ranked by sales
             and market share; domestic production, imports and
             exports; assessment of the business operating and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   The Peru
             regulatory environment.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Pharmaceuticals &
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Healthcare Report
             • BMI’s Independent 5-year Forecasts including historic
             data series (2000-2004) and 5-year forecasts to end-2009
             for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit
             assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the
             main forecast.

             • BMI’s Macroeconomic Forecasts covering headline
             macroeconomic indicators including real GDP growth,
             inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and
             external debt.

             • Competitive Rankings and Landscapes by sales,
             market share, number of employees, year established,
             ownership structure

             • Company Profiles and SWOTs featuring senior
             executives with full contact details; main business
             activities, brands and products; partners and suppliers;
             investments, projects and company strategy



8
                                                                                               IT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  IT




    Tourism
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Tourism




                                                                                   Oil & Gas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Oil & Gas




                                                                                                    Insurance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Insurance




                                                                                                                                                                                                              Chemicals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Chemicals




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Automotives
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Automotives




                                                                                                                                                     Food & Drink
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Food & Drink




                                                                                                                Infrastructure
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Infrastructure




                                                                  Petrochemicals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Petrochemicals




                                                                                                                                 Freight Transport
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Freight Transport




                                                                                                                                                                    Defence & Security
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Defence & Security




              Telecommunications
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Telecommunications




                                                                                                                                                                                         Commercial Banking
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Commercial Banking
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Product List




                                   Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Algeria                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Azerbaijan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Angola                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Baltics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Bahrain                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Belarus
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Egypt                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Belgium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Iran                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Bosnia-Herzegovina
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Iraq                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Bulgaria
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Israel                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Croatia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Czech Republic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Circles indicate availability




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jordan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Kenya                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Estonia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Kuwait                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             France
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Lebanon                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Germany
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Libya                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Greece
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Hungary
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Nigeria
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Italy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Oman
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Kazakhstan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Qatar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Latvia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Saudi Arabia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Lithuania
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        South Africa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Netherlands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Syria                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Poland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Turkey                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Romania
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        UAE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Russia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Yemen                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Serbia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Zimbabwe                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Slovakia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Slovenia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Australia                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Spain
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Central Asia                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sweden
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        China                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Switzerland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Hong Kong                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Ukraine
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        India                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              United Kingdom
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Indonesia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Japan                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Argentina
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Malaysia                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Brazil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        North Korea                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Canada
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Pakistan                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Caribbean
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Philippines                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Chile
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Singapore                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Colombia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        South Korea                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Ecuador
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Taiwan                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mexico
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Thailand                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Peru
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Vietnam                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Puerto Rico
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Trinidad & Tobago
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           United States
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                14 major industry sectors across a range of key markets




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Venezuela




9
Foreign Companies Yearbooks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            No of listed




                                                                                       ................................................................................................................................................
The Foreign Companies in Emerging                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Product List            companies
Markets series, now in its 8th edition,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ASIA (12)
comprises 39 Yearbooks offering fully                                                                                                                                                                                                                      COMPANIES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   FOREIGN COMPANIES IN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    China                         3,100
researched commercial intelligence on over                                                                                                                                                                                                        VIETNAM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Central Asia                    750
165,000 top executives at more than                                                                                                                                                                                                                2005                             Hong Kong                     2,300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    India                           950
58,500 leading foreign subsidiary, joint
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Indonesia                     2,500
venture and associate companies active in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Malaysia                      2,600
global emerging markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Philippines                   2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Singapore                     3,500
Published annually by the Commercial Intelligence Service,                                                                                                                                                                                                                          South Korea                     880
corporate research division of Business Monitor International,                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Taiwan                          970
the Foreign Companies Yearbooks offer fully researched                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Thailand                      2,750
corporate data on thousands of American, Japanese, German,                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Vietnam                         750
British, French, Dutch, Swiss, Australian and many other foreign
subsidiary, joint venture and associate companies doing business
in Asia. Companies are fully researched at source by
questionnaire, fax, email and telephone.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            No of listed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Product List            companies


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           COMPANIES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   FOREIGN COMPANIES IN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    EMERGING EUROPE (13)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Baltics                       1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  POLAND
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Bulgaria                        750
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2005                             Central Asia                    750
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Croatia                         495
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Czech Republic                1,950
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Greece                        1,350
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Hungary                       1,840
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Macedonia                       230
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Poland                        1,480
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Romania                         750
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Russia                        1,900
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Serbia & Montenegro             450
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Slovenia                        490




                                                                    LIST OF CONTENTS

     FULL ADDRESS AND CONTACT DETAILS                                                                                                                                                                                                                32 MAJOR INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATIONS
     Entries include senior personnel and titles, full company name, full postal
     address, telephone and fax numbers, plus e-mail and website addresses.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Academic              Electronics/Electrical   Packaging
     SENIOR EXECUTIVE PERSONNEL AND TITLES                                                                                                                                                                                                Accountancy           Energy/Utilities         Paper/Printing
     A range of senior executives and their titles, including Chairman, CEO,
     Finance Director/Treasurer, Marketing/Sales Director and Managing Director.                                                                                                                                                          Agriculture/          Food/Drink               Pharmaceuticals/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Environment           Government               Medical
     COMPREHENSIVE INDICES
     All entries are indexed by company name, nationality, 32 major industry                                                                                                                                                              Aviation/Defence      Insurance                Real Estate/Property
     classifications (see opposite) and by parent head office.                                                                                                                                                                            Banking/Finance       IT/Computers             Retail
     CORPORATE PROFILES                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Chemicals/            Legal                    Services
     Corporates profiles by employee size, registration date, description of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Petrochemicals        Machinery/Equipment      Telecommunications
     business activity and, where available, US$ sales volume.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Construction/         Manufacturing            Textiles
     LINKS TO REGIONAL AND PARENT HEAD OFFICES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Engineering           Media                    Tourism/Travel/Leisure
     Leading foreign subsidiaries and joint ventures linked to regional and parent
     head offices in the US, Japan, Germany, Britain, France and other leading                                                                                                                                                            Consultancy           Mining                   Trade
     industrial countries, for which full address, contact personnel and details are
     provided.                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Consumer Goods        Motor Industry           Transport




10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          top foreign companies’ subsidiaries




                                                                         No of listed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Also available on CD-ROM...




                                                                                         ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
                                             Product List                companies



                COMPANIES
        FOREIGN COMPANIES IN
                                             LATIN AMERICA (8)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    A powerful research
                                             Argentina                           1,650                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            and marketing tool,
        VENEZUELA                            Brazil                              2,300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  presented in an
        2005                                 Caribbean                           2,100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  easy-touse Windows                              COMPANIES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          FOREIGN COMPANIES IN
                                             Chile                               1,100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  format. The CD                          VIETNAM
                                             Colombia                            1,000
                                             Mexico                              2,400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            allows you to
                                             Peru                                1,100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            browse, search
                                             Venezuela                           1,180                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            and analyse the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  entire database,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  and export data for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  mailing lists,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  telesales and your
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  own database
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  development.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Features
                                                                         No of listed
                                             Product List                companies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Full Search Criteria
                                             MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA (7)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Keyword - Use freetext searches to instantly access target data.
                COMPANIES
        FOREIGN COMPANIES IN
                                             Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Company Name - Instantly source strategic data on a potential
        EGYPT
                                             Qatar & Yemen              950                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       customer, partner, supplier or competitor through
        2005                                 Egypt                    1,200                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       companyspecific searches.
                                             Jordan, Lebanon & Syria    780
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nationality - Search foreign subsidiaries and joint ventures in
                                             Saudi Arabia             1,880
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  your key markets representing over 50 countries.
                                             South Africa             1,590
                                             Turkey                   1,370                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Major Industry Classifications - You can search companies by 32
                                             UAE                      1,690                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       major industry classifications.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Print, Copy and Export Features
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Print out selected entries or an individual entry from the screen.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Copy an individual entry to a clipboard for pasting into other
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  software (Word, etc.).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Export data in a range of standard formats to produce mailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  lists, support telesales operations and build customised
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  databases.
        PUBLICATION DETAILS AND PRICES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Link via the Internet to the websites of listed companies.
Argentina, Bahrain/Oman/Kuwait/Qatar/Yemen, Brazil, Caribbean, Central Asia,
Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary,
India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, Saudi
Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, UAE,
Venezuela, Vietnam:
                                   US$                    £                €
                               BOOK / CD             BOOK / CD        BOOK / CD

PRICE PER COUNTRY          US$575 / US$1030          £380 / £685     €525 / €935


Baltics, Bulgaria, Croatia, Jordan/Lebanon/Syria, Macedonia, Romania, Serbia &
Montenegro, Slovenia:
                                   US$                    £                €
                               BOOK / CD             BOOK / CD        BOOK / CD

PRICE PER COUNTRY           US$460 / US$815          £300 / £545     €415 / €745


Discount package prices for multiple books/cd-roms are available on request.
CD-Rom price includes free copy of book.
To order any of the above reports, please contact the Subscriptions Department
on +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 or email subs@businessmonitor.com




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  comprehensively researched industry data



Industry Directories




                                                                                    .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Business Monitor International publishes
three Industry Directories, covering Oil &
Gas, Pharmaceuticals and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             MULTINATIONAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     OIL & GAS COMPANIES IN
Telecommunications in Asia, Latin America,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ASIA

Emerging Europe and the Middle East &
Africa. Each Directory comprises fully
researched corporate data on thousands of
senior executives at multinational
subsidiaries, joint ventures and associate
companies in these key industries.

The Directories enable industry professionals to target new
markets for products and services; locate and compare
alternative manufacturers and suppliers of industry equipment
and services; approach key personnel to identify profitable new
customers and sales leads; create new management, recruitment                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Product List
and customer contacts; research industry peers and competitors,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ASIA
and identify joint venture and acquisition targets.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Oil & Gas Companies in Asia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Pharmaceuticals Companies in Asia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Telecommunications Companies in Asia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              LATIN AMERICA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Oil & Gas Companies in Latin America
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Pharmaceuticals Companies in Latin America

           PUBLICATION DETAILS AND PRICES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Telecommunications Companies in Latin America
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              EMERGING EUROPE
 All titles produced annually
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Oil & Gas Companies in Emerging Europe
 PRICES                                                    US$         £        €                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Pharmaceuticals Companies in Emerging Europe
 Oil & Gas Companies in Asia                             US$700     £380 €540                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Telecommunications Companies in Emerging Europe
 Pharmaceuticals Companies in Asia                       US$700     £380 €540
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA
 Telecommunications Companies in Asia                    US$700     £380 €540
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Oil & Gas Companies in the Middle East & Africa
 Oil & Gas Companies in Latin America                    US$585     £320 €450
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Pharmaceuticals Companies in the Middle East & Africa
 Pharmaceuticals Companies in Latin America              US$585     £320 €450
 Telecommunications Companies in Latin America           US$585     £320 €450                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Telecommunications Companies in the Middle East & Africa

 Oil & Gas Companies in Emerging Europe                  US$585     £320 €450
 Pharmaceuticals Companies in Emerging Europe            US$700     £380 €540
 Telecommunications Companies in Emerging Europe         US$585     £320 €450

 Oil & Gas Companies in the Middle East & Africa       US$700       £380 €540
 Pharmaceuticals Companies in the Middle East & Africa US$585       £320 €450                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Also available as an electronic file by email...
 Telecommunications Companies
 in the Middle East & Africa                           US$585       £320 €450                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Allows you to export data for your own database to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              produce mailing lists, support telesales and build
 To order any of the above directories, please contact the Subscriptions
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              customised databases.
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                                                                     LIST OF CONTENTS

     FULL COMPANY NAME AND ADDRESS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            LOCAL COMPANY PROFILE
     TELEPHONE, FAX, E-MAIL AND WEBSITE ADDRESSES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Number of employees, date of company establishment and estimated/actual
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              US$ sales turnover
     SENIOR CONTACT PERSONNEL
     Includes executives with specific financial, technical and purchasing                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    NATIONALITY
     responsibilities:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        All entries are identified by single or joint nationality status. Countries
     Chairman, President, CEO, Finance Director, Treasurer, Marketing/Sales                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   represented include the US, Japan, UK, Germany, France, Netherlands,
     Director, Operational Director, Technical Director, Business Development                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Switzerland and over 25 others worldwide.
     Manager, Purchasing Manager, R&D Manager                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 OWNERSHIP STATUS AND PARENTAGE
     PRODUCT AND SERVICES CLASSIFICATIONS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Local company identified as multinational subsidiary, joint venture, agent,
     Over 30 classifications per industry                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     representative or by trade association. Includes name and location of parent or
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              associated company.
     FULL DESCRIPTION OF COMPANY ACTIVITY
     Main products manufactured and services provided, at parent head office and
     local levels




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