Energy Crises -ACCIONA

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					The energy crisis, a great opportunity for sustainable development
José Arrieta ACCIONA Energía

Conference: What jobs in a low carbon European economy? 20 February 2007

1. An unsustainable panorama

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1. An unsustainable panorama

Energy crossroads
Unsustainable model
• 80% based on fossil fuels. • With limited reserves (peak oil expected in 10-20 years). • Concentrated in unstable countries: geo-strategic insecurity. • Volatile prices. • Climate change.

Growing demand
• 53% increase in primary energy demand forecast  2030 ENERGY: Crisis or opportunity? • Emerging countries: 85% of expected increased demand

• Universal right to development.
• 1,600 million people without access to electricity • 2.000 million people without access to commercial energy

3

1. An unsustainable panorama

According to the IEA, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the world energy system in 2030
Even in its Alternative scenario, they will represent 77% of demand for primary energy

2004
Demand for energy: 11,204 Mtoe
Biomass 10.49% Other renewables 0.51% Coal 24.75%

2030
Demand for energy: 15,405 Mtoe
Biomass 11.05% Hydroelectric 2.74% Nuclear 6.95% Other renewables 2.42%

Coal

Hydroelectric 2.16% Nuclear 6.37%

22.80%

Gas 20.55%

Oil 35.17% Gas

21.88%

32.16%

Oil

Source: Alternative scenario of the International Energy Agency (IEA)

Mteo = Millions of tonnes oil equivalent.

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1. An unsustainable panorama

We need to reduce the emissions associated to the conventional scenario of the IEA in 2030 by 45% to take on climate change
… and by 35% in relation to the most ecological scenario

Evolution of equivalent emissions of CO2 from energy
45

Concentration of CO2 in 2050 (en ppm) 700 ppm

40

Reference Scenario IEA

40.42 Gt 34.08 Gt

35

590 ppm

30

Alternative Scenario IEA

25

18.4 Gt (-45%)

Evolution needed

20 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

22.0 Gt
2025
2030

500 ppm

Source: In-house data based on IEA figures, the Stern Report and IPCC.

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1. An unsustainable panorama

The solution will be less costly and more efficient if we act early
EFFECTS - Concentration of CO2 e> 750 ppm before 2100
pre-industrial: 280 now: 430

COST Serious impact on humanity and the environment Serious economic depression Loss of agricultural surface area Land submerged More extreme meteorological phenomena

NO ACTION

Energy is responsible for 60% of CO2 emissions, which are growing in an unsustainable manner
ACTION

- Temperature +5º in the 21st Century

20% of world GDP

OBJECTIVES
Unbundle growth and climate change
- 50% of primary energy non-fossil in 2050 - Stabilise CO2 at less than 550 ppm en the 21st century

ACTION
Carbon price R&D in clean technologies Energy efficiency Social awareness Putting the brake on deforestation Concerted international action

EFFECTS
Less warming (<2º in 21st century) Business opportunities New markets New technological developments New jobs created

INVESTMENT

1% of world GDP

Source: Stern Report, 2006

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2. An alternative model is possible

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2. An alternative model is possible

Wind power: could represent 21% of the effort to reduce emissions in 2030 (Greenpeace and EWEA)
By that date it would cover 20% of world demand for electric power
Emissions avoided by wind power generation 2005-2030

Million tonnes of CO2

4,000

3,784 (21% of the
effort to reduce emissions)

3,000

X 39
1,856

2,916

2,000

1,000

898 97

307
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

2005

Source: Main forecasts of the Wind Force 12 report (Greenpeace and the European Wind Energy Association–EWEA)

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2. An alternative model is possible

Photovoltaic: a 6% contribution to the reduction of emissions in 2030 (European Photovoltaic Industry)
Emissions avoided by photovoltaic generation 2005-2030
Millions of tonnes of CO2
1,000

1,092 (6% of the effort to reduce emissions)

800

600

400

X 273
353

200

165

4
0 2005 2010

17
2015

61
2020 2025 2030

Source: European Photovoltaic Industry.

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2. An alternative model is possible

55% of electricity generation could also be renewable in 2030 (82% ten years later)
(TWh)
40,000 100% 35,000

17,885
30,000 25,000 20,000 100% 15,000 10,000 100% 82%

100%
100%

Emissions avoided in millions of t

10,265

55%
5,340
34%

Conventional Generation Renewable Generation
Thermal solar electric Geothermal Photovoltaic Wind Biomass Small hydro Large hydro

1,793
5,000 0 19%

2,626
22%

2001

2010

2020

2030

2040

Source: EREC. Renewable Energy Scenario to 2040. (2004)

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2. An alternative model is possible

There have been successful renewables experiences in the world
… that show its viability and point the way forward

DENMARK

NAVARRE (N. SPAIN)

Covers 21% of its electricity demand with wind energy

Produces 62% of its electric power demand from renewables

BRAZIL

BEST PRACTICES

GERMANY

Three million vehicles only use bioethanol (11% of the total)

850 photovoltaic MW installed in 2006 (58% of the world total)

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3. Renewables are not more expensive

12

3. Renewables are not more expensive

The cost of conventional energy is higher

12 Other costs 10.5 Cents. € / kWh

Tensions due to scarcity of other fossil fuels

Price volatility Scarcity of resources Concentrated reserves

9
Mean value external cost (environment and public health) 7.5 6 4.5 3 1.5

Transport, reprocessing and storage of waste Scarcity of uranium Geostrategic risks Random nature of supply

+ 5.7 + 1.8

+ 0.15

Maximum and minimum generation costs

+ 0.39

Coal

Gas

Nuclear

Wind

Source: In house data based on IEA, Word Energy Outlook 2006, for internal costs. CE, “External Costs. Research on socio-environmental damage due to electricity and transport”. 2003, for the external cost.

13

4. The contribution of ACCIONA

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4. The contribution of ACCIONA

Wind: First developer in the world, with 163 windparks located in ten countries (4,357 MW)

15

4. The contribution of ACCIONA

Thermoelectric: biggest solar plant in the world in 15 years

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4. The contribution of ACCIONA

Photovoltaic: first plant in the world under development

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4. The contribution of ACCIONA

Thermal solar: leaders in Spain in installation of equipment

18

4. The contribution of ACCIONA

Biomass: biggest straw-fired plant in the south of Europe

19

4. The contribution of ACCIONA

Hydroelectric: 19 small hydro plants in operation

20

4. The contribution of ACCIONA

Biodiesel: One plant operational and five more within 3 years

21

4. The contribution of ACCIONA

Bioethanol: production plant based on surplus wine alcohol

22

4. The contribution of ACCIONA

We have multiplied our workforce by 15 in seven years
Number of employees in the ACCIONA Energia Group
1,224 Induced jobs in 2006: 8.000

X 15

720

458 285 343

81

125

185

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

23

4. The contribution of ACCIONA

We need to reduce the emissions associated to the conventional scenario of the IEA in 2030 by 45% to take on climate change
… and by 35% in relation to the most ecological scenario

Evolution of equivalent emissions of CO2 from energy
45

Concentration of CO2 in 2050 (en ppm) 700 ppm

40

Reference Scenario IEA

40.42 Gt 34.08 Gt

35

590 ppm

30

Alternative Scenario IEA

25

18.4 Gt (-45%)

Evolution needed

20 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

22.0 Gt
2025
2030

500 ppm

Source: In-house data based on IEA figures, the Stern Report and IPCC.

24

4. The contribution of ACCIONA

In 2030 ACCIONA would contribute 1% of the reduction in greenhouse gases needed to put the brake on climate change
Renewables production by ACCIONA 2006-2030
28.48

CO2 emissions avoided by ACCIONA 2006-2030
0.22

Necessary reduction in CO2 emissions
18.4

Mtoe

Gt

Gt

2.81 0.76

0.021

0.007

ACCIONA share 2009 2030

1% 2030

2006

2009

2030

2006

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5. Conclusions

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5. Conclusions

The problem can be solved

• The problem of energy sector emissions can be solved. • An energy model based on renewables is feasible. • This model is a key element in the fight against climate change and to bring about sustainable development. • ACCIONA’s operations make a strong contribution to cutting back emissions and to job creation. • With 100 companies like ours, the problem would be on the way to a solution.

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The energy crisis, a great opportunity for sustainable development
José Arrieta ACCIONA Energía

Conference: What jobs in a low carbon European economy? 20 February 2007


				
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