Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise Dynamics & Forecasts to 2015 Serbia by Canadean

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									SPECIAL REPORTS
Distribution Trends in Soft
Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-
Premise Dynamics &
Forecasts to 2015

SERBIA
A Special Focus Report from Canadean
December 2010




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                                                                                   Liquid Intelligence
                  Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks                                                                                        Serbia



Contents
Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise Dynamics & Forecasts to
2015 .................................................................................................................................................. 2
   Distribution Trends .................................................................................................................................... 2
   Market Valuation/Pricing ............................................................................................................................ 2
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise – Volume, 2006-2010F (% Growth) ........................................... 3
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise – Value, 2006-2010F (% Growth) .............................................. 3
     Soft Drinks on-Premise vs Off-Premise – Volume & Value, 2006-2010F (M Litres/Local Currency) ........ 4
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise by Category, 2009 vs 2010F (% Growth).................................. 4
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise, 2009-2015F (% Growth) .......................................................... 5
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise, 2009, 2010F & 2015F (% Share) ............................................. 5
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise Average Price Per Litre by Category, 2010F (Local Currency) .. 6
Soft Drinks Product Definitions ..................................................................................................... 7
Glossary ..........................................................................................................................................14
Forecast Methodology...................................................................................................................16




                                                                                                                 Soft Drinks Service/Dec-2010              1
             Serbia                                         Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks


    Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise
                    Dynamics & Forecasts to 2015


Distribution Trends

2009 was overshadowed by the recession, consumer behaviour changing significantly driven by deteriorating
socio-economic drivers. Many consumers lost their jobs or lived under this fear, while others saw their net
income decreasing significantly in 2009. High unemployment, rising inflation and devaluation of local currency
had a severe combined effect. Consumers faced with rising utility prices, daily expenses and invoices they could
not cover saw their disposable income diminished in some cases to nil. Therefore, on-trade consumption
declined, consumers avoided eating and drinking out or reduced their expenditure per occasion. On-trade
consumption contracted overall by 4%, but carbonates and juice sales drop was three times steeper, while
energy drinks and iced/rtd tea drinks were the only categories managing growth. The on-trade share maintained
roughly at 14% in volume terms, but contracted by 10% value-wise due to consumers shift towards less
expensive alternatives and QSR share gain. The quick service restaurants came out best during this difficult
period exploiting the time pressures forcing many consumers to have their meals in a rush.

Traditional retail still accounts for more than a third of total off-premise, while modern retail consists of ten cash
and carry outlets, of which half are Metro, half local Tempo chains. There are 14 hypermarkets and 251
supermarkets countrywide, and more importantly four discounts (Tempo Express). All together Serbia has less
than 40 outlets to one million inhabitants, one of the lowest rates in Europe.


Market Valuation/Pricing

The shift towards low end products as well as perpetual price promotions to keep sales to a decent level
resulted in an average increase in
								
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