SPECIAL REPORTS
Distribution Trends in Soft
Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-
Premise Dynamics &
Forecasts to 2015
SERBIA
A Special Focus Report from Canadean
December 2010
Canadean Contacts:
Debra Richards, Sales Support Manager: +44 (0)1256 394227
Alison Bodnar, Sales Support Administrator: +44 (0)1256 394287
Copyright
Information contained in Canadean reports is confidential and for use only by clients of Canadean with valid contracts.
All copyright in these publications is reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or
transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without prior
permission of the copyright owners.
Liability
Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that information contained in this report is accurate and that opinions
expressed are sound, Canadean Ltd cannot be made liable for any errors, omissions or incorrect information or for any
loss or consequential losses arising as a result of decisions taken based on the contents of this report.
Canadean prints its reports on 100% recycled paper using 80% post consumer waste.
Visit the Canadean website @ www.canadean.com
Products & Services Available from Canadean in 2010
Wisdom - Canadean’s multi-dimensional beverage database, available for all services
All Beverages Services - annual and quarterly Wisdom databases and reports – Global Beverage
Forecasts and Quarterly Beverage Tracker (QBT)
Soft Drinks Service - annual country and global Wisdom databases and reports
Beer Service - annual country and global Wisdom databases and reports
Beverage Packaging Service - annual country and global Wisdom databases and reports
Iberia - annual, quarterly and monthly reports available on Spain and Portugal
Special Focus Reports - please check our website or contact us for details of the latest special reports
available
Consulting
Bespoke projects
Database management
Long-range forecasting
Client presentations
Beverage workshops
Bespoke database solutions
Industry presentations
Industry referrals and claims
Conferences
For more information on any of Canadean's beverage services or consulting please contact Canadean on
tel: +44 (0)1256 394224, email: sales@canadean.com or visit www.canadean.com
Liquid Intelligence
Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks Serbia
Contents
Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise Dynamics & Forecasts to
2015 .................................................................................................................................................. 2
Distribution Trends .................................................................................................................................... 2
Market Valuation/Pricing ............................................................................................................................ 2
Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise – Volume, 2006-2010F (% Growth) ........................................... 3
Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise – Value, 2006-2010F (% Growth) .............................................. 3
Soft Drinks on-Premise vs Off-Premise – Volume & Value, 2006-2010F (M Litres/Local Currency) ........ 4
Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise by Category, 2009 vs 2010F (% Growth).................................. 4
Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise, 2009-2015F (% Growth) .......................................................... 5
Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise, 2009, 2010F & 2015F (% Share) ............................................. 5
Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise Average Price Per Litre by Category, 2010F (Local Currency) .. 6
Soft Drinks Product Definitions ..................................................................................................... 7
Glossary ..........................................................................................................................................14
Forecast Methodology...................................................................................................................16
Soft Drinks Service/Dec-2010 1
Serbia Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks
Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise
Dynamics & Forecasts to 2015
Distribution Trends
2009 was overshadowed by the recession, consumer behaviour changing significantly driven by deteriorating
socio-economic drivers. Many consumers lost their jobs or lived under this fear, while others saw their net
income decreasing significantly in 2009. High unemployment, rising inflation and devaluation of local currency
had a severe combined effect. Consumers faced with rising utility prices, daily expenses and invoices they could
not cover saw their disposable income diminished in some cases to nil. Therefore, on-trade consumption
declined, consumers avoided eating and drinking out or reduced their expenditure per occasion. On-trade
consumption contracted overall by 4%, but carbonates and juice sales drop was three times steeper, while
energy drinks and iced/rtd tea drinks were the only categories managing growth. The on-trade share maintained
roughly at 14% in volume terms, but contracted by 10% value-wise due to consumers shift towards less
expensive alternatives and QSR share gain. The quick service restaurants came out best during this difficult
period exploiting the time pressures forcing many consumers to have their meals in a rush.
Traditional retail still accounts for more than a third of total off-premise, while modern retail consists of ten cash
and carry outlets, of which half are Metro, half local Tempo chains. There are 14 hypermarkets and 251
supermarkets countrywide, and more importantly four discounts (Tempo Express). All together Serbia has less
than 40 outlets to one million inhabitants, one of the lowest rates in Europe.
Market Valuation/Pricing
The shift towards low end products as well as perpetual price promotions to keep sales to a decent level
resulted in an average increase in