Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise Dynamics & Forecasts to 2015 Portugal

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					SPECIAL REPORTS
Distribution Trends in Soft
Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-
Premise Dynamics &
Forecasts to 2015

PORTUGAL
A Special Focus Report from Canadean
December 2010




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                                                                                   Liquid Intelligence
                  Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks                                                                                     Portugal



Contents
Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise Dynamics & Forecasts to
2015 .................................................................................................................................................. 2
   Distribution Trends .................................................................................................................................... 2
   Market Valuation/Pricing ............................................................................................................................ 2
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise – Volume, 2006-2010F (% Growth) ........................................... 3
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise – Value, 2006-2010F (% Growth) .............................................. 3
     Soft Drinks on-Premise vs Off-Premise – Volume & Value, 2006-2010F (M Litres/Local Currency) ........ 4
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise by Category, 2009 vs 2010F (% Growth).................................. 4
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise, 2009-2015F (% Growth) .......................................................... 5
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise, 2009, 2010F & 2015F (% Share) ............................................. 5
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise Average Price Per Litre by Category, 2010F (Local Currency) .. 6
Soft Drinks Product Definitions ..................................................................................................... 7
Glossary ..........................................................................................................................................14
Forecast Methodology...................................................................................................................16




                                                                                                                 Soft Drinks Service/Dec-2010              1
            Portugal                                     Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks


    Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise
                    Dynamics & Forecasts to 2015


Distribution Trends

Off-premise strengthened with price promotions and PL advance

Within off-premise channels large modern retail and discount channels increased share due to ongoing price
promotions and the growing PL contribution, together representing some 46% of all sales. Large domestic retail
chains such as Pingo Doce, Continente and Modelo benefited from the public opinion campaign led by the
Portuguese Chamber of Commerce and Industry (AEP) to persuade consumers to help the national economy
by purchasing products produced in Portugal which are able to display an authorised logo. Some discount
chains such as Lidl and DIA/Minipreço have a high proportion of imports and have lost share to other stores as
a result.

On-premise channels lost share in the face of reduced consumer spending and fewer tourists. Tighter credit
conditions and rising fixed costs added further pressure, with some 5,000 EDA outlets in Portugal forced to
close in 2009. The areas mostly affected were large and medium-sized cities, due to unemployment, and tourist
areas. Mid- and high-end EDA establishments were hardest hit, while QSR outlets, which are perceived as
modern, reliable and with a no surprise price, registered growth.


Market Valuation/Pricing

Large modern retail was the pricing driver

The poor economic environment and reduced consumer purchasing power limited overall on-premise price
increases. QSR channels applied slight increases to cover rising fixed costs, while EDA channels such as bars
and traditional restaurants generally absorbed extra costs to maintain prices and encourage consumer visits.

Maintaining price levels in the face of rising costs is not a viable option for the medium term; in 2009 so
				
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