Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise Dynamics & Forecasts to 2015 Netherlands

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					SPECIAL REPORTS
Distribution Trends in Soft
Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-
Premise Dynamics &
Forecasts to 2015

NETHERLANDS
A Special Focus Report from Canadean
December 2010




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                                                                                   Liquid Intelligence
                  Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks                                                                             Netherlands



Contents
Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise Dynamics & Forecasts to
2015 .................................................................................................................................................. 2
   Distribution Trends .................................................................................................................................... 2
   Market Valuation/Pricing ............................................................................................................................ 2
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise – Volume, 2006-2010F (% Growth) ........................................... 3
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise – Value, 2006-2010F (% Growth) .............................................. 3
     Soft Drinks on-Premise vs Off-Premise – Volume & Value, 2006-2010F (M Litres/Local Currency) ........ 4
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise by Category, 2009 vs 2010F (% Growth).................................. 4
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise, 2009-2015F (% Growth) .......................................................... 5
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise, 2009, 2010F & 2015F (% Share) ............................................. 5
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise Average Price Per Litre by Category, 2010F (Local Currency) .. 6
Soft Drinks Product Definitions ..................................................................................................... 7
Glossary ..........................................................................................................................................14
Forecast Methodology...................................................................................................................16




                                                                                                                 Soft Drinks Service/Dec-2010              1
             Netherlands                                 Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks


    Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise
                    Dynamics & Forecasts to 2015


Distribution Trends

Increased at home consumption good for soft drinks

The on-premise decline proved to be rather dramatic in 2009. This was caused by the anxious consumer
staying more at home. Soft drinks however performed relatively well compared with the huge decline for draught
beer (down 10%).

Off-premise volume benefited from consumers staying more at home. This additionally favoured soft drinks
because at home drinking behaviour is different from away from home, The Horeca ratio is 75:25 in favour of
beer vs soft drinks and the take home ratio is 65:35 in favour of soft drinks vs beer

Hard discounters more popular

Hard discounters are claiming share growth and full service supermarkets have reacted with sharp price
promotions. The retail market has been put on alert by the aspiration of Jumbo going national after the takeover
of Super De Boer. Albert Heyn is the undisputed leader with its share of market value growing to over 30%.

Cafés worst hit on-premise

Negative on-premise developments are affecting cafés most. The restaurant sector performed relatively well.
Quick service restaurants are growing share.


Market Valuation/Pricing

Dramatic value crash

A value crash in 2009 was caused by a share decline for Horeca and the increased popularity of cheaper
Private Label. The severe economic climate and the anxiety of consumers as they awaited better times were the
main reasons. A further Horeca decline looks unlikely however since the economic situation seems to be
stabilising.

Prices stable

In general on shelf and list prices have not changed dramatically. Out of home channel price increases have
been mostly limited to just a number of SKUs, wh
				
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