Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise Dynamics & Forecasts to 2015 Kazakhstan

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                  Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks                                                                              Kazakhstan



Contents
Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise Dynamics & Forecasts to
2015 .................................................................................................................................................. 2
   Distribution Trends .................................................................................................................................... 2
   Market Valuation/Pricing ............................................................................................................................ 3
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise – Volume, 2006-2010F (% Growth) ........................................... 4
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise – Value, 2006-2010F (% Growth) .............................................. 4
     Soft Drinks on-Premise vs Off-Premise – Volume & Value, 2006-2010F (M Litres/Local Currency) ........ 5
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise by Category, 2009 vs 2010F (% Growth).................................. 5
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise, 2009-2015F (% Growth) .......................................................... 6
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise, 2009, 2010F & 2015F (% Share) ............................................. 6
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise Average Price Per Litre by Category, 2010F (Local Currency) .. 7
Soft Drinks Product Definitions ..................................................................................................... 8
Glossary ..........................................................................................................................................15
Forecast Methodology...................................................................................................................17




                                                                                                                 Soft Drinks Service/Dec-2010              1
             Kazakhstan                                      Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks


    Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise
                    Dynamics & Forecasts to 2015


Distribution Trends

Hypermarkets and supermarkets are losing popularity as a sales channel. Even in Almaty, the ‘supermarket
region’, share has decreased significantly. Large distribution stores saw their share reduced from 46% in 2008
to 33% in 2009.

Traditional retail and convenience channels demonstrated a slight increase in volume share from 43% in 2008
to 49% in 2009. Street trade through small stalls and open markets grew 7%, amounting to 18% of total share.
This growth is unsurprising in a recession since market sellers and street traders tend to have less mark-up and
do not pay VAT.

The trend back towards smaller traditional retail and street trade reflects a number of challenges faced by the
large modern retail chain, apart from higher prices and less disposable income amongst consumers. These
include a general decline in turnover, weak infrastructure, certification and licensing issues, expensive pricing of
modern technology, incredibly high rent and undeveloped logistics and transport systems.

The Ramstore chain of hypermarkets and supermarkets - the first on the Kazakh market – is owned by the
Turkish company Migros. Migros has operated since 1999 and now has nine stores in Almaty, four in Astana,
one in Karaganda and one in Chimkent.

The SM markets economy chain, with 49 supermarkets currently across Kazakhstan, was launched in 2004. It is
owned by Eldorado Holding which also owns the Tinkoff restaurants chain, Staut bars, Smak cafés and a
number of shopping malls and factories in Almaty. In 2009 Eldorado bought its bankrupt former competitor,
Gross, with the support of the government.

The first Kazakh discounter, Arzan, entered the market in 2008 with four supermarkets in Almaty. This chain
belongs to the Raimbek Group. The price strategy in such discount supermarkets is ‘every day low prices’
(EDLP) which m
				
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