Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise Dynamics & Forecasts to 2015 Germany by Canadean

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                  Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks                                                                                   Germany



Contents
Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise Dynamics & Forecasts to
2015 .................................................................................................................................................. 2
   Distribution Trends .................................................................................................................................... 2
   Market Valuation/Pricing ............................................................................................................................ 3
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise – Volume, 2006-2010F (% Growth) ........................................... 4
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise – Value, 2006-2010F (% Growth) .............................................. 4
     Soft Drinks on-Premise vs Off-Premise – Volume & Value, 2006-2010F (M Litres/Local Currency) ........ 5
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise by Category, 2009 vs 2010F (% Growth).................................. 5
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise, 2009-2015F (% Growth) .......................................................... 6
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise, 2009, 2010F & 2015F (% Share) ............................................. 6
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise Average Price Per Litre by Category, 2010F (Local Currency) .. 7
Soft Drinks Product Definitions ..................................................................................................... 8
Glossary ..........................................................................................................................................15
Forecast Methodology...................................................................................................................17




                                                                                                                 Soft Drinks Service/Dec-2010              1
             Germany                                      Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks


    Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise
                    Dynamics & Forecasts to 2015


Distribution Trends

Cocooning’ trend drives on-premise decline

The tense economic situation and the ban on smoking caused the entire on-premise channel to suffer strongly.
Many consumers preferred to eat, drink and entertain friends at home, instead of spending a lot of money on
dining and drinking out. On-premise posted its worst results for the past six years and hotels, restaurants and
canteens began to feel the effects of the tense economic situation. Whilst the holiday business was quite
satisfactory (overnight stays in domestic hotels were down by only 0.2%; many people spent their holidays in
Germany instead of going abroad) companies limited spending and reduced budgets for business travel,
conferences and other events. The top hotels in the big cities and at airports found the climate particularly
challenging. Average Horeca turnover slumped by more than 6% in 2009. The accommodation business, bars
and pubs were most affected. Only QSR managed growth.

Increasing ‘on the go’ consumption further fuelled sales at garage forecourts and kiosks. Iced/rtd coffee drinks
and energy drinks especially benefited from this development.

On-premise consumption of packaged water decreased by nearly 6% in 2009. Packaged water is often
consumed before and with meals and changing going out habits affected volume negatively. Carbonates also
lost out to the ‘cocooning’ trend and slumped by nearly 5% in 2009. The good performance of QSR (which
increased 3%) softened the decline.

Juice on-premise consumption only decreased very slightly as juice is mostly served with the breakfast in hotels
and this section of Horeca did not suffer too much. In general juice is bought in modern retail and not consumed
‘on the go’ very much. The lion’s share of juice is sold via discount and modern supermarkets. Discount was
down by less than1% whilst large modern retail managed to increase sales slightly. One driver for this was the
large variety of drinks at discount price level and many brands being sold at special offer prices.

Nectars sales in discount stores were down 3% whilst large modern retail suffered a decline of 1%. For the first
time in a long time PL producers suffered more than the rest of the market. This ind
								
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