Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise Dynamics & Forecasts to 2015 Bulgaria

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                   Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks                                                                                          Bulgaria



Contents
Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise Dynamics & Forecasts to
2015 .................................................................................................................................................. 2
   Distribution Trends ........................................................................................................................................... 2
   Market Valuation/Pricing .................................................................................................................................. 2
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise – Volume, 2006-2010F (% Growth) ............................................. 3
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise – Value, 2006-2010F (% Growth) ................................................ 3
     Soft Drinks on-Premise vs Off-Premise – Volume & Value, 2006-2010F (M Litres/Local Currency) ......... 4
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise by Category, 2009 vs 2010F (% Growth) .................................... 4
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise, 2009-2015F (% Growth) ............................................................. 5
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise, 2009, 2010F & 2015F (% Share) ................................................ 5
     Soft Drinks On-Premise vs Off-Premise Average Price Per Litre by Category, 2010F (Local Currency) ... 6
Soft Drinks Product Definitions ..................................................................................................... 7
Glossary ......................................................................................................................................... 14
Forecast Methodology.................................................................................................................. 16




                                                                                                                      Soft Drinks Service/Dec-2010                1
             Bulgaria                                     Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks


    Distribution Trends in Soft Drinks: On-Premise vs Off-Premise
                    Dynamics & Forecasts to 2015


Distribution Trends

On-trade suffers while modern trade expands

The on-premise channel has been one of the greatest casualties of the soft drinks market decline. Its overall
share is estimated to have dropped from 20% in 2008 to under 18% in 2009. Consumers clearly chose to go out
less last year, and when they did, spent less per visit than before. After several years of continued growth,
declining tourist numbers also added to the suffering of Horeca.

The retail sector saw the arrival of Carrefour, Merkator, Penny, Plus, and DM on the Bulgarian market in 2009.
Existing chains also grew with Billa increasing from 40 to 65 outlets. 2010 will see Lidl Digest Plus add to the
competition with a mass deployment of stores.

The net result has been a massive rise of the share of modern retail from 23% of total soft drinks volume in
2008 to an estimated 32% last year. While some cannibalisation is undoubtedly taking place further growth
already seems guaranteed.



Market Valuation/Pricing

Price rises have continued

Carbonates, the largest soft drinks category, saw a price rise over the past year in spite of the fact that the
mega brands were offering greater discounts over a longer time period than usual and in spite of the growth of
Private Label products. The chief force behind this development was the substantial price correction which the
major local player Nova Trade was forced to undertake in order to sustain its business. This was followed in
parallel by the rest of the local producers leading to a net rise in average prices.

Packaged water volumes dipped by 10% in 2009 but the value drop was estimated to be only 2%. This confirms
the continued tre
				
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