Peter Hayes Climate Change Adaptation Framework Slide

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					       CC Adaptation Framework:
      Reminder--Complex Systems
“A complex system,” wrote NASA Goddard
  Institute climatologist David Rind in 1999, is
  literally one in which there are multiple
  interactions between many different
  components.”
            CC Adaptation:
       Reminder--Complex Systems

•Complex systems contain many constituents interacting
nonlinearly.
•The constituents are interdependent.
•A complex system possesses a structure spanning several scales,
each of which has a structure.
•A complex system is capable of emerging behavior at a
particular scale leading to self-organization that changes the
structure at that scale.
•Complexity involves interplay between chaos and non-chaos.
•Complexity involves interplay between cooperation and
competition.
          --Michael Baranger MIT
           CC Adaptation:
      Reminder--Complex Systems
• Local processes may govern transitions of the
  state of the whole system due to dependence
  on the initial conditions or what is known
  intuitively as the “butterfly effect.”
• Due to their non-linearity, the effects of these
  interacting processes across scales, including
  positive and negative feedbacks, are
  inherently unpredictable.
     Complex Adaptive Systems:
The essence of complex adaptive systems is that agents,
  in this case, human beings, act upon and are affected
  by the systems and its complex feedbacks and
  transitions, and can adapt to these changes, including
  inducing further changes by design.
The consequence of such complexity in human worlds is
  that history matters—really matters because historical
  problems resulting from the co-evolution of complex
  human systems with climate and each other have
  memory and cannot be simply undone.
Climate Change Is Not Alone                             Rischard, High Noon, 2002, p. 66

                                                        20 Global Issues to
                                                        Solve in 20 Years

  UIA Problem Groupings                                 1.    Global Commons (Sharing the
                                                              Planet)
                                                              Global Warming
  Basic universal problems (170 )                             Biodiversity and Ecosystem Losses
                                                              Fisheries Depletion
  Cross-sectoral problems (575)
                                                              Deforestation
  Detailed problems (2,162)                                   Water deficits
  Emanations of other problems (3,857)                        Maritime safety and pollution
  Exceptional problems (3,072)
                                                        2.    Global Commitments (shared
  Very specific problems (2,153)
                                                              humanity)
  Problems under consideration for inclusion (214)            Massive step-up in fight against
  Total world problems described: 9,832                       poverty
                                                              Peacekeeping, conflict prevention,
                                                              combating terrorism
                                                              Education for all
                                                              Global infectious diseases
                                                              Digital Divide
                   Climate Change shares the                  Natural Disaster Prevention and
                                                              mitigation
                   stage with many other
                                                        3.    Global Regulatory Approach, Shared
                   competing global problems;                 Rules
                                                              Reinventing taxation
                   and is interrelated (inter-linked,         Biotechnology rules
                                                              Global financial architecture
                   as UNEP and Global                         Illegal drugs
                   Environment Facility put it)               Trade, investment, competition rules
                                                              Intellectual property rights
                   with many of them.                         E-commerce rules
                                                              International labor and migration
                                                              rules
BINARY THINKING…
    Source: United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerabilities
and Adaptation in Developing Countries, Bonn, 2007, p. 9




                                                           ADAPTIVE
                                                           RESPONSE
    Source: United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerabilities
and Adaptation in Developing Countries, Bonn, 2007, p. 9




                                                           ADAPTIVE
                                                           RESPONSE
         GEF: Common Problems, Solution Synergies?




Source: Scientific and Advisory Panel, a Conceptual Design Tool for Exploiting Interlinkages between the Focal
    Areas of the GEF, Global Environment Facility, GEF/C.24/Inf.10 November 10, 2004
          Escape from Complexity-GEF Stovepiping




Source: Scientific and Advisory Panel, a Conceptual Design Tool for Exploiting Interlinkages between the Focal
    Areas of the GEF, Global Environment Facility, GEF/C.24/Inf.10 November 10, 2004
 Shift to Integrated Mitigation and Adaptation

Vulnerability 1: to biophysical impacts
Vulnerability 1: Breaks down in developing
                  countries
V2: Social Risk Assessment: Matrix of climate trends,
     associated hazards and vulnerability factors




                                                    Social Risk Assessment




Source: Andrew Thow and Mark de Blois , Climate change and human vulnerability: Mapping emerging trends and risk hotspots for humanitarian
      actors, Summary for decision makers, Maplecroft Report to the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs with CARE, March 2008,
      at: http://www.careclimatechange.org/files/DiscussionPaperHumanitarianImplicationsofCC.pdf
                                                                 Climate Hotspots




Source: Andrew Thow and Mark de Blois , Climate change and human vulnerability: Mapping emerging trends and risk hotspots for humanitarian actors, Summary for decision makers,
        Maplecroft Report to the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs with CARE, March 2008, at:
        http://www.careclimatechange.org/files/DiscussionPaperHumanitarianImplicationsofCC.pdf
                                              Combined Social Vulnerability




Source: Andrew Thow and Mark de Blois , Climate change and human vulnerability: Mapping emerging trends and risk hotspots for humanitarian
      actors, Summary for decision makers, Maplecroft Report to the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs with CARE, March 2008,
      at: http://www.careclimatechange.org/files/DiscussionPaperHumanitarianImplicationsofCC.pdf
                                                Overlay of Climate Hotspots




Source: Andrew Thow and Mark de Blois , Climate change and human vulnerability: Mapping emerging trends and risk hotspots for humanitarian
      actors, Summary for decision makers, Maplecroft Report to the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs with CARE, March 2008,
      at: http://www.careclimatechange.org/files/DiscussionPaperHumanitarianImplicationsofCC.pdf
               Down scale: Urban CC
                  Vulnerability
Overall:
•      Delhi, India has the highest average risk score, followed by Dhaka,
       Bangladesh.
•      The next two cities are Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam and Dongguan,
       China.
•      Delhi’s average score is 3, suggesting that for some of the risk impacts,
       its risk is low compared to the other cities.
•      Number two and three cities have no risk impact for which they have
       the highest risk (a score of 5).
•      Most of the cities have an average score below 2. ie relatively low
       exposure on average
•      But, some of these cities, such as Jaipur, India, and Handan, China,
       have the highest score on at least one risk impact.
•      It is difficult to say which city is at greatest risk.
•      On average, Delhi scores highest and Bandung, Indonesia the lowest.
•      But, the rankings differ quite considerably based on which risk impact
       is considered.

Caveats:
The table also presents average scores across all the risk impacts, applying no
        weighting of individual factors.
 Note that application of a cardinal scoring system, in our case applying scores
        of 0 to 5, as well as no weighting, can introduce distortions. A city with
        a score of 5 does not necessarily have five times the risk of a city with a
        score of 1.
Not all of the risk impacts will equally affect people.
It does not consider how much a city would suffer from climate impacts, nor
        the past, current, or future adaptive capacity of a city to respond to
        impacts.


Source: Stratus Consulting, Screening Asian Megacities to Estimate Relative
       Exposure to Climate Change, unpublished report to Rockefeller
       Foundation, September 11, 2007.
            Types of Adaptation
•   Routine coping
•   Autonomous adaptation
•   Reactive vs proactive adaptation
•   Anticipatory, planned, adaptation
•   Incremental adaptation
                   Adaptation Costs
No-one has a good estimate of the incremental cost of adaptation, due
  to inherent uncertainty because:
    – the range of climate scenarios and related impacts and adaptive costs
      is great;
    – current cost estimates (often in the range of 10-50 billion $/year) do
      not account for autonomous adaptation (which would reduce the
      cost), nor for disruptive mitigative and adaptive technologies (that
      may further greatly reduce the cost).
    – Conversely, these costs do not account for the upgrade of basic
      infrastructure such as housing that may be necessary for adaptation in
      poor parts of the world; nor for possible very high costs arising from
      dangerous climate change.
Existing estimates have a high range that do not provide the basis for
   consensus; and no consensus exists as to the computational basis
   for burden sharing, or even who should be sharing the costs of
   adaptation
Table 1: Characteristics of mitigation and adaptation



                                            MITIGATION-ADAPTATION SYNERGIES
                                            MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION DIFFER
                                     Mitigation                                      Adaptation
            Benefited systems        All systems                                     Selected systems
            Scale of efforts         Global                                          Local to regional
            Life time                Centuries                                       Years to centuries
            Lead time                Decades                                         Immediate to decades
            Effectiveness            Certain, in terms of emission reduction;        Generally less certain, especially where local
                                     less certain in terms of damage reduction       knowledge of likely climate-related changes is weak
            Ancillary benefits       Sometimes                                       Mostly
            Polluter pays            Typically yes                                   Not necessarily
            Payer benefits           Only a little                                   Almost fully
            Administrative           (Mainly) National                               (Mainly) local managers/authorities, households (&
            scale/implementing       governments/international negotiations          community organizations)
            bodies
            Sectors involved         Primarily energy and transport in high-         Potentially all
                                     income nations, forestry and energy in
                                     low/middle-income nations
            Monitoring               Relatively easy                                 More difficult


          Source: Bosello et al, 2007, cited in D. Satterthwaite et al, Building Climate Change Resilience in Urban Areas and among Urban Populations in
               Low- and Middle-income Nations, prepared for the Rockefeller Foundation’s Global Urban Summit, Innovations for an Urban World, in
               Bellagio in July 2007 and published as: Adapting to Climate Change in Urban Areas The possibilities and constraints in low- and middle-
               income nations, Human Settlements Discussion Paper Series, online at: http://www.iied.org/HS/topics/accc.html, p. 51
                               Adaptation-Mitigation Linkages
Source: R. Klein, S. Huq et al, “Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation,” chapter 18, 2007.
           Barriers to Integration
The IPCC authors called for more research to explore whether
   bridges can be built between the two categories of activity.
   The barriers should not be under-estimated.
At RMIT University, for example, an effort by a water pollution
   chemist to engage with building design specialists on
   whether water-storing structures could be built into walls
   and contribute to distributed water supply (adaptive
   measure), reduction in flammability, and to provide
   thermal mass (mitigation) in the building met with a cool
   response.
As the chemist put it, “the people there were primarily
   scientific and into gadgets rather than structures...”
                Conclusion
“Everything changes; all that varies is the rate of
  change, ranging from infinitesimal to
  incremental to very fast to abrupt. From a
  normative viewpoint, what is acceptable
  change or stable to one person or social entity
  is overwhelming and objectionable to another.
  Resistance to change could be adaptive or
  maladaptive.”
  – James Rosenau

				
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Description: Peter Hayes Climate Change Adaptation Framework Slide