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Current Climate Change Trends and Issues for East Asia
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- 12/19/2010
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Document Sample
Climate Change:
Issues and Measures for HD in Asia
Multi-CO Technical Capacity Development Workshop
“Measuring Human Development”
Ha Noi, Viet Nam
1-2 June 2010
Human Development Report Unit
UNDP Regional Center for Asia Pacific, Colombo Office
Key Characteristics of Asia
Growth • GDP growth rising; EA 5%+ in 1990 to
continues 8% in 2008; SA recent trend similar
Poverty comes • The proportion of people living on less
down than $1.25 cut by 70%, 1990-2005
GHG emissions • Emissions doubled since 1990
increase
2
Megacities with dense populations abound in Asia
(Population Map of Major Asian Cities)
3
Tracking the Causes of Rising Emissions
• Reduced carbon sinks - land use change, deforestation
– Indonesia: Land-use change and deforestation estimated to release 2.6
Gt.CO2 annually—around six times the emissions from energy and
agriculture combined
– Cambodia, illegal logging of hardwood timbers for export was responsible
for much of the 30% reduction in primary rainforest cover since 2000—one
of the most rapid losses recorded by the FAO
• Increasing modern energy demand for growth
– Production, consumption and exchange need increased energy use
– China, India, Vietnam etc.
4
Dilemmas: Modern Energy Use and Human Development have a
Strong Positive Relationship
Poverty
reduction
• Easier in the
presence of growth
MDGs
• Without an
adequate increase
in quality and
quantity of energy
services, societies
cannot meet the
goals
But historic per capita CO2 emissions still low in Asia
UK, USA 1,100 tonnes, compared with just 66 tonnes for China and 23 tonnes for India. 5
CC Dilemmas
• All environmental problems are not climate
change; the more visible pollution gets more
attention; CC is less understood how can we
make it more visible
• Everyone affected and needs to adapt; but the
relatively privileged need to mitigate
• Costs now (financial, lifestyle); benefits mainly
in the future, especially for the better-off
• Uncomfortable tradeoffs – politically fraught
6
Key areas for HD impacts
East Asia South Asia
Vulnerable Water Retreating
Coastal Shortages and Natural
Glaciers/
Disasters
Populations Floods Water
Agriculture Agriculture
and Food and Food
security security
Contd.
7
Vulnerable Coastal Populations:
Dramatic impacts on social and economic indicators
• Coastal population high and rapidly rising
130m in China; 40m in Viet Nam
concentrations in large cities like Shanghai, Ho Chi
Minh City
• Urban pop expected to double from 665 m in 2000
to 1.2 b people by 2030)
• Countries affected: Viet Nam and China the most;
also Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia
8
Measuring impacts on coastal population
•Typhoon frequency: average of 6-8 •Large scale inundation affecting major
p.a. economic activities – tourism
• Mangroves loss: 2,500 km2 with a • Flooding of Mekong (15-20,000 km2)
1m sea level rise (Asia) river delta inundate it fully
• Loss of coral reefs: ~30% estimated - expose land to extreme salinity - 45%
over next 30 years in Asia - crop damage - rice productivity cut by
9% - food security
• Decline in fish larvae abundance
• Viet Nam 1 m rise
• Land salinity increases - displacement of people – 22m
- GDP loss 10%
• Coastal people at risk of flooding:
2.6-18.8m persons by 2100 in SEA
Key CC Impacts EA
9
Water Shortages and Floods
Dry regions becoming drier; wet regions wetter
water shortages in arid/ semi-arid regions
increased precipitation in temperate /tropical Asia during summer monsoon cause
more frequent and severe floods
Annual river water flow
decline in Mekong River 16-24% by 2050
Area under glaciers (melting glaciers)
shrinkage of area by 80% over the Tibetan plateau by the 2030s (China; also Bhutan,
Nepal)
Changes in flows and seasonality
adverse impacts on sensitive and economically productive wetlands (e.g. Tônlé Sap
in Cambodia)
10
Water-linked HD
Implications
• Agriculture, fisheries, forestry: domestic food security, rural livelihoods
• Industrial, commercial & domestic stress – negative for GDP, and quality of
daily human life
• HD impacts exacerbated by rapid urbanization:
Migration, water competition/conflicts
Groundwater quality & quantity – pollution, salinity, extraction
Sanitation systems – health
11
Water-linked Climate Hazards for HD
12
Natural Disasters: Man-made “Natural”
Disasters
• Share of global natural
disasters in Asia: 80% of the
natural disasters worldwide
occur in Asia; and of these,
80% are hydro-meteorological
or climate-related Gender: Disproportionate impact on women
• Population affected by at Mental health: Increased behavioral
least one natural disaster: problems among children following
Over 50% of South Asians (> flooding (e.g. Bangladesh)
750 m people) affected in the
past two decades
13
Disaster Implications: Sudden and Creeping
• Fatalities: B’desh, India account for 76% of all deaths
from cyclones in the world
– 2 of 3 world’s deadliest cyclones occurred in Bangladesh,
causing 300,000 deaths in the 1970 and 140,000 deaths in
the 1991 cyclone
– Bangladesh, India, southern Nepal and Pakistan
• Displacement: Monsoon floods/ storms in SA
displaced over 21 million people in 2007
• Health, Education: India, B’desh outbreaks of diarrhea,
respiratory infections; schools disrupted
• Economy: Local income cuts can be severe for people;
overall average on GDP may be less
Key CC Impacts SA
14
Retreating Himalayan Glaciers: Water Impacts
• Himalayas: vital life sustaining water resource
for SA (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal,
Bhutan)
• Perennial rivers could become seasonal:
Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra & others
• GLOF: Floods from outbursts of glacial lakes,
expanding at alarming rates (Nepal)
• Life, health, livelihood: 1.5 b people
supported in the floodplains
• Water shortages (unparalleled scale): No
replacement water-source available
• Agriculture and economic structure: Huge
Accelerated rate of retreat of Gangotri changes to cope with retreating glaciers
Key CC Impacts SA
glacier, Uttarachal, since 1780 (image
from NASA)
• Food: strategic priority of every
society and policy
• Agriculture, including fisheries
Agriculture and and forestry: Share of GDP, Share
of employment and share of land use
Food Security – all high in Asia, especially South
Asia
• Rural economy faced relative
neglect in the pursuit of growth:
climate impacts complicating factor;
serious implications for food
systems
16
CC Indicators: Agriculture &
Food Security
• Increased incidence of weather extremes: onset of rainfall;
duration & frequency of drought and floods
• Increase in agri-water demand: >= 6-10% for every 1 degree
C rise in temperature
• Variations of rainfall and reduction of precipitation: big
impact on livelihoods of poor farmers (India and Sri Lanka)
• HD indicators poor for vulnerable people around river
basins (Iran and India)
17
Agriculture and Food Security – Rivers
The Mekong River The Yangtze River
Multi-country and Geographic spread: covering 2
geographic spread (6 EA million sq-km, 1/5 of
countries) – eco/env/soc China’s land area
Employment - agriculture, Population coverage: home to >
fisheries and forestry 500 m people, nearly half of
employ 85% of the basin China’s population; one of
population, producing the most densely populated
rice for some 300 m river basins on earth
people
Water supply decrease with GDP: accounts for more than
increased evaporation by 40% of China’s GDP; over
10-15% 40% of total inv in fixed
assets 18
Implications: Agriculture
and Food Security
• Increased risk of hunger (266 million Asians may face
hunger by 2080)
• Rain, water shortages linked to nutritional status and
girls’ deaths (India)
• Decline in net productivity of grasslands and milk yield
- impacts on herders through livestock effects
19
Bangladesh: Production--a
4°C temperature increase
could reduce rice production
by 30%; wheat by 50%
India: Farm income decreases--
Climate Models:
a 2-3.5°C temperature
Scenarios for
increase associated with a Agriculture and
net farm revenue reduction Food Security
of 9–25%
Indonesia: Falling yields--4%
for rice; 50% for maize
Pakistan: Falling yields--losses
of 6-9 %for wheat with a
1°C increase in 20
Other Impacts: Health
• Exacerbation of cholera due to increases in
temperature
• Mutation of dengue virus due to warmer
temperatures, leading to an increase in fatalities in
the rainy season
• Increased endemic morbidity and mortality due to
diarrhoea all over Asia aggravated by floods and
droughts
• Increase in infectious diseases for livestock
21
Other Impacts:
Exacerbation of Poverty, Vulnerability
Long-term consequences are much worse for
the poor disempowered, excluded – majority
Their lives, livelihoods, education and health
are also affected across generations,
trapping them in cycles of poverty
22
CC-HD SYNERGISTIC NEXUS
• SUSTAINABILITY
• EQUALITY
• EMPOWERMENT
• EFFICIENCY
• PARTICIPATION
23
DILEMMAS
• Developing countries will retain and
strengthen policy focus on economic growth;
poverty reduction is easier in the presence
rather than absence of growth; but growth is
closely correlated with energy use
• Hardly any country has been able to decouple
emissions from growth; how to widen
prosperity and reduce inequalities, but
control emissions at the same time?
24
MESSAGES
Climate Change: A man-made natural disaster that is, both,
immediate and slowly developing
Pre-existing versus Aggravating factors: CC is an
aggravating factor that can multiply existing development
deficits, reverse progress
Less Visible: Unlike pollution, CC is much less explicit, making
it harder to trigger prevention and incentivise better
management
25
Messages
• Agriculture and the rural sector have been sidelined as
countries focus on manuf and services as engines of
growth
• CC can help reintroduce a rural focus with beneficial
effects on land use, poverty, food insecurity and exclusion
• Extreme events get attention more easily, even if short-
lived (floods, storms); but slower degradation is no less
important to tackle (drought, desertification) for HD
26
CAN MEASUREMENT
IMPROVE FOCUS ON PEOPLE TRIGGER BEHAVIOUR CHANGE
AND POLICY?
HD lens: Physical science dominates discourse on CC; we aim
to develop a robust people-centered discourse rooted in
social science S-E-E-E-P
MDG links: Can guide search for areas of climate-linked
threats and opportunities for people’s lives
27
Vulnerability = f (Exposure, Sensitivity,
1/Adaptive capacity)
28
• Accuracy and reliability of measures: Large numbers to
emphasize urgency triggers search for even larger numbers,
risks hyperbole
- avoid ‘large no. bias’, retain critical scrutiny for
credibility
- but in a polarised situation (divergent interest groups)
critical opinions could brand one a ‘climate sceptic’
• Some effects are hard to quantify: Avoid sidelining factors
that cannot be measured; combine quantitative and
qualitative data
29
• Regardless of what countries do to mitigate, global
warming is expected to continue for some time; so
all societies will HAVE to adapt (planned versus
involuntary)
• Societies will also NEED to control GHG emissions
to mitigate if the extent of global warming has to
be controlled – band-aid solutions will be just that
– patchwork
30
We hope better measurement leads us to
low-GHG-growth and climate resilient societies
Thank You
31
