Docstoc

MerSea project - a European system for operational monitoring

Document Sample
MerSea project - a European system for operational monitoring Powered By Docstoc
					      The MERSEA Project:
   towards Marine Core Services

from Global to regional ocean monitoring
             and forecasting



                Yves Desaubies,
     On behalf of the Mersea Consortium



        SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
• « Development of a European system for
  monitoring and forecasting … »;
   Environmental information for policy makers;
   Reference information and data in support of marine
    applications
   High quality data for
    ocean science
   Towards Marine
     Core Services




             SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
                 MERSEA Integrated Project

R&D project funded by the European Commission (FP6)
    Thematic priority : SPACE - GMES
    Ocean and Marine Applications for GMES (Global
     Monitoring for Environment and Security)
4-year project (2004 –2008)
38 contractors, 16 countries (or Int. Org.)
    Coordination : IFREMER (Institut Français de Recherche pour
     l’Exploitation de la Mer),
    Participants : meteorological agencies, marine institutes,
     research labs, small companies, …


               SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
              GMES Marine Core Services

Combining in-situ and satellite data, with models to provide ocean
monitoring and forecasting




  Analysis, forecast and hindcast


                  SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
     MERSEA :data assimilation into ocean
                  models
•   Data assimilation (remote sensed, in situ)
     Altimetry, SST, ice, ocean colour
     In situ profiles and surface : ARGO, XBT, CTD, SOOP
     Forcing fields : ECMWF, or regional NWF
• Ocean physics, biogeochemistry and ecosystems
     A global system
                                                           Nowcasts,
     Regional and shelf sea systems
                                                           forecasts, hindcasts
     Connection to coastal systems

• Marine Core Services for GMES (2008):
     Contribution to Global Earth Observing Syst of Syst (GEOSS)


                SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
MERSEA :
 A vision
   A Project developing
      A system
        ….. (pre-) opeational in 2008 !
              … a work in progress

             SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
The observing system for climate




A schematic of the composite ocean observing systems, including the current
status against the goals of the 2000 - 2010 implementation plan.
(Johnson, JCOMM, OPA, NOAA/OCO)


                   SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Remote sensing : from to R & D to production

• Merged altimetry (=> dynamic height)
    SSALTO / DUACS (Toulouse
• High resolution SST
    Medspiration, with GHRSST-PP (GODAE High Resolution SST)
• Ocean colour => chlorophyl, primary production
    JRC : Joint Research Centre
• Sea ice
    Concentration @ Eumetsat OSI- SAF; drift @ IFREMER
• Wind and fluxes
    ECMWF
    Merged products (scaterrometre + ECMWF) : CERSAT IFREMER



               SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
            Altimetry: merged products

                                                Mean absolute dynamic topography




Mean sea level anomaly


                 SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
          Wind fields: merged fields

Combine winds from Numerical Weather Prediction (ECMWF)
with high resolution sattelite fields (scaterrometre)




             SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
       Sea surface temperature,
(with GODAE High Resolution SST – PP)




       SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
                                    SeaWifs-
                                    MODIS




Chlorophyll a : 9 yrs analysis
 (EC Joint Research Center)




                SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Sea Ice Concentration and drift




                                                     R. Ezraty, 2005




    SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
         Research and development

• Modelling, assimilation, bio-geochemistry, ..
   Process representation, algorithms, parmeterisations,
    numerics, codes
   Transfer to operational suites
• Downscaling, model nesting, zooms, boundary
  conditions,
• Data products, merged fields (multi-sensors),
  quality control, forcing fields
• Ecosystems in regional seas
• Seasonal forecasting

             SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Global ¼° NEMO-LIM simulation 1958-2000
                                  The French DRAKKAR Group




              Resolution   Equator   45°N       60°N
              1/4°         27 km     19 km      13 .5 km


These models are resolving:
•Eddies and fronts
•Boundary currents
•Coastal upwelling
•sea-ice cover, thickness


                     SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
    The Drakkar Group, Barnier et al (CNRS)


SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
The MERSEA System




SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
    Production, information Management

                                                                 Search and
                                                                 discovery;
                                                                 Viewing
                                                                 Download



 8 Production centres (or networks), operated by Agencies
 Integration, consistency, quality of services
    Common formats, standards, best practices
    Catalogues, inventories of products
    Data access and distribution ; archival
    Adapt product and delivery to user needs, user desk

                SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
                                       Area I : Global Ocean
                                       Area II : North East Atlantic
            3
                                       Area III : Arctic
                                       Area IV : Baltic Sea
      2         4
                                       Area V : Mediterranean Sea


1
                5




    SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
   Monitoring and Forecasting Centres


• Global : Mercator – Océan
• North East Atlantic and NW shelves : Met Office
  and the NCOF
• Arctic : NERSC and met.no
• Baltic : DMI
• Mediterranean : INGV and the MOON network




            SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
                        Mercator Océan

•French Centre for ocean monitoring and forecasting
   Supported by CNES, CNRS, IFREMER, IRD, SHOM and Météo-France
   Vigourous R & D programme
   Full suite of models with different resolution, relocatable high resolution




   Development of a global 1/12°, with assimilation




                  SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
                 The Global Ocean Production system
   Global ¼°
                      1                                           2
ocean model                                                            a 1/15° Zoom on
 assimilating                                                          North Atlantic &
     satellite                                                         Mediterranean
    altimetry                                                          assimilating satellite
                                                                       altimetry, Reynolds
                                                                       SST and in situ data

                                                                       A precursor of the
                                                                       Global 1/12°
3

                                             4

    Global 2°
  assimilating                            Global Observation-based
satellite altimetry                       product (T&S, currents)

                      SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
                         What does it deliver?


                              Real-Time production
                                      on a weekly basis,
                                      3D fields of the ocean state
                                      Real-time analysis,
                                      2 weeks of daily forecasts,
                                      maps & numerical fields,



                              Reference simulations




SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
National Centre for Ocean Forecasting (NCOF)
(www.ncof.gov.uk) – a strategic partnership between:

(1) Ocean Forecasting R&D, Met Office              (3) National Oceanographic Centre
a) Operational global and regional wave            a) ~40 year Open Ocean hindcast runs
analyses and 5 day forecasts.
                                                   b) Remote sensing facility.
b) Operational open ocean and shelf seas
                                                   c) Links to observational and process
hydrodynamic (and ecosystem) analyses,
                                                   expertise and groups.
hindcasts and 5 day forecasts.
                                                   (4) Plymouth Marine Laboratories
c) Operational satellite products.
                                                   a) Remote sensing operational and R&D
d) Links to internal observational and
                                                   capability.
climate groups.
                                                   b) Ecosystem modelling and process
(2) Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory
                                                   expertise.
a) ~40 year regional (and global) and
                                                   (5) Environmental System Science Centre
process shelf seas models.
                                                   a) ~40 year open ocean analyses.
b) Wave hindcast and process models.
                                                   b) Expertise in data management and
c) Links to internal process and
                                                   services.
observational capability.
                 Selected products only – see web site for details

                        SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
                       viewing … North East Atlantic
           (different fields, model & observations)
               FOAM model




Model




Observations     SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
From Global to regional to coastal seas :
Analysis and forecasts




                                     Exemples form the TOPAZ – NERSC
                                     system : North Sea and Gulf of Guinea


             SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
                             Final users

• Offshore industry support, ship routing
    Products : currents, temperature, waves, sea- ice
    High resolution, nowcasts, forecasts, re-analysis for statistics,
     extreme events
    Local to global
• Emergency : oil spill response, search and rescue
    Currents, temperature, surface, very high resolution, coastal
    Readiness, real-time, analysis and short term forecasts
• Coastal systems
    Coastal management, ecosystems, water quality, sea level
    Observations are necessary,
    Very high resolution, nesting into larger scale systems


                 SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
        Prestige : oil spilled on the track

         MOTHY operational                 MOTHY + Mercator 103m




 In green, areas with positive impact of Mercator currents
 In red, areas where MOTHY alone is better

MOTHY and operational oceanography systems 28, 2007
                 SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March
Offshore industry support
    in Gulf of Mexico




  SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Gulf of Mexico Dynamics




 SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
SST Image of Loop Current and Eddies




       SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Service in support of the offshore oil and gas industry




                                                  http://www.oceannumerics.com

                SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
   ‘Edge’ - an improved nowcasting tool

• Further development of
  software tool for
  delineating fronts
• Permits use of all
  available satellite and in-
  situ data for delineation of
  best frontal boundary
• Utilises only latest images




               SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
                         QUALITY (Analysis, Short-term Forecast)
   Best Estimate Surface velocity                   ADCP velocities at 50 m vs PSY2V2 surface velocities
for Day 05/09 around MARS location                    magnitude (upper panel) + direction (lower panel)

                                                                                                         ADCP Data*




                                                          2005 Wintertime period (Feb-May)




 Offshore « Mars » Oil platform                        • Black line : ADCP records
       (SHELL) location                                • Red line/Green Line /Blue line : alternate colors representing
     (Central North GOM)                               the succession of 14 days of model forecasts issued weekly
                                                       (warning : High frequencies are not filtered)

                            SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
     Forecast verification tables for decision-aid support

 Forecast range    Overall mean shortest distance to      shortest distance to front
                       front difference (in km)          difference (in km) @ MARS
                   (mean over 11 sites and 17 weeks)    Platform : Mean/std deviation


  Best estimate                   16                                 14.7/13
    (Analysis)
 1-week forecast                  21                                 19/16.8

 2-week forecast                  22                                23.4/23.5


  Table 3: Distance-to-front errors                                 Binary event : “frontal occurrence
 as a function of the forecast length                                  at the MARS Offshore site”
                                                       Numbers of        MARS       Model           (ANA/F7/F14)
User-specific metric = Similar                         occurences        platform   outside         inside
  methodology as in PROFS                                    EO          outside        7/7/7            1/1/1
  Deepstar Shootout Evaluation                             fronts                        Correct
                                                                                        rejection
                                                                                                       False Alarm

  Study [Oey et al.,2005] &
                                                                         inside         2/2/3           7/7/6
  similar/improved statistics                                                             Miss               Hit

  expected                                      Table 2: Contingency table for the event « frontal
                                                occurrence at the MARS location » over 17 weeks :
                                                   an indicator of model forecast performance
                          SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
                          Comments

• Need to utilise multiple information streams
   Data coverage is essential, condition sine qua non
• Significant dependence upon forecaster’s
  interpretation and expertise
• The model won’t always get it right,
   but has definite, albeit limited skill
• Users expect very high accuracy
• Ways to improve :
   Local high resolution models and data
   Local data assimilation


              SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
Real time current profiles in GoM




    SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
    What is next : Marine Core Services

Part of the GMES architecture
   Call for proposals FP7, to cover transition 2008 =>
To provide basic service, to intermediate users
   Monitoring and basic mapping;
      Collect organise data collection, availability
   Operational forecasting;
      Global and main regional areas

Intermediate users :
   Agencies (marine, meteorology), science
   Reporting agencies (EEA, ICES, OSPAR)
   Value adding companies

                SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
             Summary, conclusions

• The systems are running
    State of the art, continuous improvement
    Provide generic information and services (MCS)
    Nesting capability
    Several data streams, product lines (analysis,
     forecasts, re-analysis), large catalogue
    Observations, observations, observations !!
• Specific applications require further expertise
• Data policy must be clarified
• Other issues
    Sustainability, governance,


              SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007
GODAE project office




SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Stats:
views:4
posted:12/20/2010
language:English
pages:42