Climate change strategies mitigation and adaptation

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					Climate change strategies -
mitigation and adaptation

            David Lesolle (Botswana)
     01st November, 2010. Port Elizabeth. SA.
•   The challenge: global warming and climate change
•   The Treaty: UNFCCC and some specifics from the
•   Mitigation and Adaptation as implemented
•   Population and sustainable development issues and
    trends and the capacity to adapt;
•   Mainstreaming mainstream climate change
    adaptation into development – the opportunity and
•   What we could do!! – is it a fair world?
The Challenge: global warming
     and climate change
           Our Atmosphere is Changing
•   During the last century, the atmospheric
    concentration of greenhouse gases and
    their radiative forcing have continued to
    rise as a result of human activities.
                                                • Pre-industrial level:
•   Global average surface temperatures have      280 ppm
    increased by about 0.6 °C.
                                                • Current level:
•   Global average sea level has risen and        360 ppm
    ocean heat content has increased.
                                                • Level in 2100: ~700
•   “The balance of evidence suggests a           ppm with large
    discernable human influence on global         uncertainty
    climate” (IPCC, SAR, 1995)
•   “There is new and stronger evidence that
    most of the warming observed over the
    last 50 years is attributable to human
    activities” (IPCC, TAR, 2001)
•   CO2 Concentrations and Global Average
    Temperatures Will Continue to Rise

                                                                          Source: IPCC, 2001
Developing Countries are the Most
  Vulnerable to Climate Change
• Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought
  prone and a large share of the economy is in climate
  sensitive sectors.
• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial,
  institutional and technological capacity and access to
• Impacts disproportionately upon the poorest
  countries and the poorest people, exacerbating
  inequities in health status and access to adequate food,
  clean water and other resources.
     The Objective of the Treaty:
      UNFCCC and the Protocol
The Convention on Climate Change sets an overall
framework for intergovernmental efforts to tackle the
challenge posed by climate change. It recognizes that
the climate system is a shared resource whose stability
can be affected by industrial and other emissions of
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases
The major distinction between the Protocol and the
Convention is that while the Convention encouraged
industrialised countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the
Protocol commits them to do so
     The United Nations Framework
     Convention on Climate Change
•   Came into force in 1994; signed by over 150 countries.
•   Overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to tackle climate change.
•   Recognizes that climate is affected by anthropogenic emissions of GHGs.
•   Seeks “stabilization of GHG concentrations…at a level that would prevent
    dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (Article 2)
•   Parties
     – expected to “take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize
        the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects” (Article 3).
     – have “common but differentiated responsibilities” based on their national
     – gather and share information on GHG emissions, national policies and best
     – launch national strategies for addressing greenhouse emissions and adapting
        to expected impacts, including the provision of financial and technological
        support to developing countries.
     – cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change.
Industrialized countries emit most
        anthropogenic CO2
      (Area proportional to historical CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, 1900-1999)

                                                                                               Source: WRI
Stabilization of CO2 will require
significant emissions reductions

                                    Source: IPCC
      Balancing the act


Integrating Mitigation and Adaptation
• UNFCCC identifies two separate options for
  addressing climate change: mitigation and
• There are increasing calls to better integrate
  these two fields.
• Because of long lag times in the climate system,
  no mitigation efforts will be able to prevent
  climate change.
• Conversely, reliance on adaptation alone would
  lead to a large magnitude of climate change, to
  which it would be very expensive to adapt.
   Mitigation and Adaptation as
    implemented - KEY ISSUES
• Mitigation and adaptation by Developed
• Mitigation by developing countries
• REDD plus
• Cooperative sectoral approaches and sector-
  specific actions
• Various approaches to mitigation and adaptation
• Consequences of response measures
• Has the potential to reduce adverse effects of climate
  change and can produce ancillary benefits, but cannot
  prevent all damages.
• Numerous adaptation options have been identified that
  can reduce adverse and enhance beneficial impacts of
  climate change.
• Greater and more rapid climate change would pose greater
  challenges for adaptation.
• Lower levels of future GHG concentrations will make the
  adaptation challenge easier.
• The population is at the centre of all of this

• Mitigation is defined as any anthropogenic
  interventions that can either reduce the sources of
  greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (abatement) or
  enhance their sinks (sequestration).
• In the context of the UNFCCC, a mitigation
  assessment is a national-level analysis of the various
  technologies and practices that have the capacity to
  mitigate climate change.
• Who has a mitigation potential?
 population issues, trends and the
        capacity to adapt
• Differentiated responsibilities / commitments
• Financial and technical support – what
  technologies – for what?
• Institutional arrangements – for the poor of the
• MRV related actions – relating to REDD and
  action and support
• Key issues: Poverty, Settlement, rangeland,
  health, water
               Possible impacts on rural
            livelihoods and food security
                Number of undernourished, incorporating climate change effects (in millions)

                                       1990              2020            2050             2080          2080/1990 Ratio

Developing countries                    885               772             579              554                   0.6

Asia, Developing                        659               390             123               73                   0.1

Sub-Saharan                             138               273             359              410                   3.0
Latin Amercia                            54                53              40               23                   0.4

Middle East & North                      33                55              56               48                   1.5

Source, Joachim von Braun, IFPRI. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Times of High Energy Prices, Background Paper
prepared for the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD)
  Development will be Undermined
         by Climate Change
The Challenge:
• Poverty: 1.3 billion people live on less than $1 per day and 3 billion people on less than
  $2 per day. Top 20% income group uses 86% of resources, while bottom 20% uses
  under 1.3%
• Food: 800 million people malnourished today -- food production needs to double in the
  next 35 years
• Water: 1.3 billion people without clean water; 2 billion without sanitation
• Energy: 2 billion people without electricity
• Environment: 1.4 billion people exposed to dangerous levels of outdoor pollution and
  even larger number exposed to dangerous levels of indoor air pollution and vector-
  borne diseases
• Shelter: many live in areas susceptible to civil strife, environmental degradation, and
  natural disasters
  Mainstreaming climate change
  adaptation into development
• Climate Change is no longer about
  environment – increasingly about
• Too much jargon
• The most vulnerable have no choice – they
  can teach the world “what is adaptation”
Integrate climate change & SD
     strategy is essential
   Climate Change                        Development

                    Former Viewpoint

          Climate       Integrated

                    Emerging Viewpoint
                                                   Source: Adapted from Munasinghe, 2005
Climate Domain                                                                SD Domain

               Climate         Climate Change Stresses                                  Human and
                                                                                      Natural Systems
               System                                                   Adaptive




    Atmospheric                     Feedbacks                            Mitigative
  GHG Emission and                                                                     Socio-economic
   Concentration                                                                        Development
     Scenarios                     Human Actions Causing
                                   GHG Emissions

                                                                                               Source: Munasinghe, 2005
            Mitigation Guidelines
• Each NA1 Party shall … communicate to the COP a general
  description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to
  implement the Convention, taking into account its common
  but differentiated responsibilities and its specific national and
  regional development priorities, objectives and
  circumstances. (25)
• NA1 Parties may provide information on programmes
  containing measures to mitigate climate change by addressing
  anthropogenic emission by sources and removals by sinks of
  all GHGs not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, and
  measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change,
  following the provisions in these guidelines. (26)
      What should we be doing
• Policies and measures

• Sharing benefits from GHG Mitigation

• Mixing mitigation and adaptation
  Different Tools, Policies, Measures and
• Global: Kyoto Protocol.
• Country level : emissions, carbon, or energy taxes, subsidies,
  deposit-refund systems, voluntary agreements, permits
  (tradable and non-tradable), technology and performance
  standards, product bans, direct government spending,
  including R&D investment.
• Regional level: tradable quotas, joint implementation, clean
  development mechanism, harmonized emissions, carbon or
  energy taxes, quotas, international technology and product
  standards, voluntary agreements, and direct international
  transfers of financial resources and technology.
  The Benefits of GHG Mitigation
• Primary: GHG emissions abatement: reducing
  global climate change.
• Co-benefits: non-climate benefits explicitly
  incorporated into the creation of GHG mitigation
• Ancillary benefits: side-effects that arise
  subsequent to any proposed mitigation policy:
  – E.g. reductions in local and regional air pollution,
    associated with the reduction of fossil fuels, and
    indirect effects on issues such as transportation,
    agriculture, land use practices, biodiversity
    preservation, employment, income and fuel security.
   Mixing Mitigation and Adaptation
• Seeking an “optimal” mix of activities may be a poor approach
  given uncertainties about climate change and the widely
  differing interests, values and preferences of stakeholders.
• Seeking robustness is probably a better approach to decision
• “Mainstreaming” is an emerging approach that seeks to
  integrate policies and measures that address climate change
  into ongoing sectoral and development planning and decision
  making: so as ensure long-term sustainability and reduce
  vulnerability to both current and future climate.
• Currently, institutions are not well adapted to support this
  type of integrated approach.
    Mitigation Potentials by Sector and Adaptation
                                                 Developing Countries            Economies in Transition     OECD Countries             World total







    <20   <50   <100    <20   <50   <100   <20    <50   <100    <20     <50   <100      <20   <50   <100   <20      <50   <100   <20    <50    <100

    Energy supply         Transport          Buildings                Industry            Agriculture            Forestry              Waste

                       Relative contribution of Agriculture to total mitigation potential
                                             US$ 20/tCO2 – 12%
                                             US$ 50/tCO2 – 14%
                                             US$ 100/tCO2 – 19%

    Source: IPCC
“Everything can always be done
 better than it is.” …Henry Ford

        Thank you.

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