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Country Risk Service Ethiopia October Updater this

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Country Risk Service Ethiopia October 2010 Updater
Published on October 2010

                                                                                                              Report Summary



Ethiopia at a glance: 2010-11+


OVERVIEW


The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) to remain firmly in
power over the forecast period, following an emphatic parliamentary election victory in May.


The government will generally adhere to an IMF-style policy framework in order to win donor backing. Monetary policy will remain tight
throughout 2010-11 to maintain low inflation and boost foreign-exchange reserves. Real GDP growth is forecast to slow to 7% in
2009/10 (fiscal year ending July 7th) owing to the global recession, before rising to 10% in 2010/11, driven by higher external demand
and a good agricultural performance.


Key changes from last month


Political outlook


The EPRDF and its four constituent parties have held conventions to elect its central and executive committees. Of the chairmen of
the four constituent parties, two have been re-elected (including the prime minister, Meles Zenawi), while the other two were replaced
with Meles loyalists, consolidating Mr Meles' hold on power. Hailemariam Desalegn of the Southern People's Democratic Movement
was selected as the EPRDF deputy chairman, in a sign of the rising clout of southern Ethiopia, which contains oil and mineral
reserves.


Economic policy outlook


The government has announced its intent to increase oil imports from Sudan from 80% of its oil requirements to 100% by end-2010.
Instability in the lead-up to a referendum on the secession of Southern Sudan could threaten this decision.


Economic forecast


The year-on-year inflation rate dropped to 5.3% in August, the lowest rate since November 2009. Food prices, which account for over
half of Ethiopia's consumer price index, fell by 1%, helped by healthy cereal supplies. Inflation is forecast to average 7% in 2010,
before rising to 11% in 2011 owing to higher domestic demand and the large currency depreciation.




                                                                                                              Table of Content




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Risk assessment


Sovereign risk


Currency risk


Banking sector risk


Political risk


Economic structure risk


Rating definitions


Sovereign risk


Currency risk


Banking sector risk


Political risk


Economic structure risk


Overall country risk


Central scenario for 2010-11: Political stability


Central scenario for 2010-11: Election watch


Central scenario for 2010-11: International relations


Central scenario for 2010-11: Policy trends


Central scenario for 2010-11: Fiscal policy


Central scenario for 2010-11: Monetary policy


Central scenario for 2010-11: Economic growth


Central scenario for 2010-11: Inflation


Central scenario for 2010-11: Exchange rates


Central scenario for 2010-11: External sector


Key risk indicators


Ratings summary




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Quarterly indicators


International assumptions summary


Economic structure


Public finances


Exchange rates, interest rates and prices


Financial sector


Current account


International liquidity


Foreign payment and liquidity indicators


External trade


External financing requirement


External debt stock


External debt service




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