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15 May 2008
IEA Workshop on Energy Technology
Roadmaps
Roadmaps From the U.S. Climate Change
Technology Program Strategic Plan
Dr. Robert C. Marlay
Deputy Director, U.S. Climate Change Technology Program
Office of Policy and International Affairs
U.S. Department of Energy
robert.marlay@hq.doe.gov
International Energy Agency
15 - 16 May 2008
Paris, France
1
15 May 2008
Part I
U.S. Climate Change Technology Program
2
15 May 2008
Technology Strategy
Key Technology Elements
– Coal -- De-Carbonize the Grid
» Nuclear Power
» Low-Emission Coal Power
» Renewable Power
– Cars -- Transform Cars/Trucks Toward New Fuels
» Hybrid & Electric Vehicles
» Alternative Fuel Vehicles & Bio-Based Fuels
» Alternatives, including Other Modes
– Efficiency (All Sectors)
– Other GHGs
– Enablers
» CO2 Capture and Storage
» Modernized Grid
“Energy security and climate » Energy Storage, Large and Small Scale
change are two of the great » Strategic and Exploratory Research
challenges of our time. These Supporting Policies to Promote Deployment
challenges share a common – Financial Incentives
solution: technology.” – Fuel Mandates
– Codes, Standards, Labeling
President George W. Bush – Transparent System for Measuring Progress
Major Economies Meeting Via U.S. Climate Change Technology Program
September 28, 2007 – Strengthen Federal R&D Portfolio
– Prioritize Investments
Expand R&D Cooperation with non-Federal Entities
3
15 May 2008
U.S. Climate Change Technology Program
U.S. Climate Change Technology Program
Mission – Accelerate R&D on Adv. CC Techs
Scope – Ten Federal R&D Agencies
Budget -- $4.4 Billion Requested for FY’09
Activities – Coord. R&D Planning & Budgeting
Goals:
Four emissions-related strategic goals:
Reduce emissions from energy end use &
infrastructure;
Reduce emissions from energy supply;
capture & sequester CO2; and
Reduce emissions from non-CO2 gases.
Two cross-cutting, supporting strategic goals:
Improve capabilities to measure & monitor
GHGs; and
www.climatetechnology.gov
Bolster basic science and strategic research.
CCTP authorized in EPAct2005. Led by DOE.
4
15 May 2008
Roadmap for Climate Change Technology Development
5
15 May 2008
“De-Oil” Transportation
Chevrolet VOLT
Future Transport System
– Multi-Modal
– Regional Choices
– Coordinated Integrated
Land-Use Planning
Vehicle Options
– Electric Vehicles
– Hybrid Vehicles
Carbon nanotube
– Bio-Based Vehicles active layer
– H2 & Hydrogenated
Molecules
100 μm
– Oil & Gas Vehicles Substrate
Nanotube-Enhanced Ultracapacitor
[MIT, R. Signorelli – March 2005]
6
15 May 2008
“De-Carbonize” the Electric Grid
90
W ind, Solar, B iom as s, O ther
Nuc lear
80 Coal IGCC w/ CCS
Coal w/o CCS
Gas CC w/C CS
70 Gas w/o CCS
Oil w/CCS
Oil w/o CCS
60
Trillion kWh/yr
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000 2010 202 0 203 0 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 209 0 210 0
7
15 May 2008
Technology Scenarios Explore the Future
Technology Scenario #1: “Closing the Loop on Carbon”
Successful development of carbon capture and storage technologies for use in
electricity, as well as in applications such as hydrogen and cement production.
Technology Scenario #2: “A New Energy Backbone”
Additional technological improvement and cost reduction for carbon-free energy
sources, such as wind power, solar energy systems, and nuclear power.
Technology Scenario #3: “Beyond the Standard Suite”
Major advances in fusion energy and/or novel energy applications for solar
energy and biotechnology such that they can provide zero-carbon energy at
competitive costs in the second half of this century.
Common Characteristics Across Scenarios:
Additional gains in energy efficiency beyond the reference case occur;
Additional technologies for managing non-CO2 GHGs become available;
Terrestrial carbon sequestration increases;
The full potential of conventional oil and gas is realized; and
Hydrogen production technology advances. 8
15 May 2008
Results of An Integrated Assessment
Source: Clarke, L., M. Wise, M. Placet, C. Izaurralde, J. Lurz, S. Kim, S. Smith, and A. Thomson. 2006. Climate Change
Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. 9
15 May 2008
Costs Must Be Lowered Significantly
Comparative Analysis of Estimated Cumulative Costs Over the 21st Century of GHG Mitigation, With
and Without Advanced Technology, Across a Range of Hypothesized GHG Emissions Constraints.*
* U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, September 2006, Figure 10-2
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Timing is of the Essence
CCTP Strategic Goal Very High High Medium Low
Constraint Constraint Constraint Constraint
Goal #1:
Reduce Emissions from Energy 2010 - 2020 2030 - 2040 2030 - 2050 2040 - 2060
End Use and Infrastructure
Goal #2:
Reduce Emissions from Energy 2020 - 2040 2040 - 2060 2050 - 2070 2060 – 2100
Supply
Goal #3:
Capture and Sequester Carbon 2020 - 2050 2040 or Later 2060 or Later Beyond 2100
Dioxide
Goal #4:
Reduce Emissions of Non-CO2 2020 - 2030 2050 - 2060 2050 - 2060 2070 - 2080
GHGs
Estimated timing of advanced technology market penetrations, as indicated by the first GtC-eq./year
of incremental emissions mitigation, by strategic goal, across a range of hypothesized GHG
emissions constraints.
Source:: Clarke, L., M. Wise, M. Placet, C. Izaurralde, J. Lurz, S. Kim, S. Smith, and A. Thomson. 2006. Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced
Technology Scenarios. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. 11
15 May 2008
Technical Goals Set Within Context of United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Relevant Relevant
Planning Planning
Window Emission Trajectories Window Concentration Trajectories
Petagram (billions of metric tons) of Carbon per year (PgC/yr)
750ppm
750ppm 650ppm
650ppm 550ppm
550ppm 450ppm
450ppm 350ppm
350ppm
Emission and concentration trajectories based on level of effort for technology investments
Potential carbon reductions based on more aggressive technology investments
Relevant planning window to influence longer-term outcomes Wigley, Richels, Edmonds,
Nature, 1996
12
R&D
15 May 2008
FY 2009 Budget Request -- CCTP Portfolio
CCTP FY09 Budget Request*
Portfolio of R&D, Demonstration and Deployment
H2 + Fuel Cells R&D
Deployment** ($379 M)
Total Multi-Agency
($761 M) Clean Fossil R&D
FY09 Budget Request: ($306 M)
$ 4,641 Million
Sequestration R&D
($176 M)
Demonstrations Nuclear Energy R&D
($740 M) ($555 M)
Other CCTP R&D Areas
($38 M)
Fusion Energy & ITER
R&D ($493 M)
Renewable Energy R&D
($621 M)
Transmission & Energy Efficiency RD&D
($422 M)
Distribution R&D
($150 M)
* All CCTP Federal Agencies FY09 Budget Request (inc: USAID & STATE) ** Deployment is 70% Energy Efficiency
14
15 May 2008
Federal Budget Request for FY 2009 –
Good News for CCTP
3000
$4.4 Billion*
(Across 10
Agencies) CCTP Budget History
2500 5000.0
4000.0
2000
3000.0
$ Millions
2000.0
1500
1000.0
1000 0.0
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09
500
0
Goal 1 Goal 2 Goal 3 Goal 4 Goal 5 Goal 6
End Use Supply CCS Other M &M Science
Other Agencies GHGs *Does not Include CCTP related
Funding from STATE ($36M) and
DOE Strategic Goals, U.S. Climate Change Technology Program USAID deployment activities ($189M).
15
15 May 2008
Part II
Examples of Roadmaps
and Applications
16
15 May 2008
Critical Elements of Successful Roadmaps
Quantitative Product
Vision
Strategic
Objectives
Identify
Barriers
Prioritize
Invest’s
Actions &
Projects
Qualitative Process
Identify Key Define Roles and Build Review &
Responsibilities Partnerships Execute
Participants Evaluation
17
15 May 2008
Carbon Sequestration Technology Roadmap
18
15 May 2008
Carbon Sequestration Program
Milestones and Goals
NETL, “Carbon Sequestration Technology and Program Plan,” 2007
19
15 May 2008
Basic Research Needs Roadmaps
Roadmaps from Basic Research
Needs Workshops (2002 – 2007):
Catalysis for Energy
Electric Energy Storage
Clean and Efficient Combustion of 21st Century
Transportation Fuels
Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems
Solid-State Lighting
Superconductivity
Breaking the Biological Barriers to Cellulosic Ethanol
Genomics: GTL Roadmap
The Path to Sustainable Nuclear Energy
Solar Energy Utilization
Advanced Computational Materials Science: Application
to Fusion and Generation IV Fission Reactors
Nanoscience Research for Energy Needs
Hydrogen Economy
Assure a Secure Energy Future
Opportunities for Catalysis
20
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21
15 May 2008
Part III
International Cooperation &
Collaboration
22
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Observations and Options
Level of Global R&D Investment -- Too Low?
– Pace of Progress Too Slow ? U.S.
– U.S. Federal R&D is Increasing, but Constrained
– Two Countries Account for 80 Percent of CC R&D Fed Labs
– Other Governments’ R&D Decreasing
How to Lift Global Effort?
– More U.S. R&D ?
Industry
– More International R&D ? Univ.
– More Private Sector R&D ?
– Technology Push vs. Technology Pull ?
– New Models for Incentivizing R&D ?
International
Potential Areas for Enhancement
– Coord., Integrated, Global R&D Strategy
Other Labs
– Better Access to Under-Utilized Assets Govt.
– More Int’l R&D Collaboration
– Division of Labor on Key Tech. Initiatives, Demos
– Enhanced S&T Cooperation Industry
Univ.
– Addressing Non-Technical Barriers
– Experimenting with New R&D Models
23
15 May 2008
International Cooperation
Benefits Challenges
Raise Overall Global Level of Effort Diverse National R&D Funding
Motivations, Schemes and Priorities
Accelerate Technology Development
Lack of Common, Shared Vision
Pool Technical Resources
Heterogeneous Program Designs
Gain Access to Privileged Facilities
Patents & Intellectual Property Issues
Broaden Knowledge Base
Other Barriers (e.g., National Security)
Facilitate Exchange of Information
Administrative Complexity and Cost
Enable Multi-Path Approaches Travel and Coordination Costs
Harmonize Technical Standards Management & Accountability Issues
Reduce Partner Costs & Risks Technical Support (e.g. IPCC/TSU)
Increase Likelihood of Success Need for Strong Central Leadership
24
15 May 2008
Historical Perspective on DOE Spending
U.S. DOE Energy RD&D
Scale
1978-FY2009 Administration Request Indicators
8000.0
Times “3”
Hydrogen (EERE)
7000.0
Electricity T&D Est. Annual
Fossil (including CCT demo) Subsidy for
6000.0 Ethanol in 2006
Renewables
Efficiency Times “2”
5000.0
Fusion
M illio n 2000 $
Fission
4000.0
3000.0
Flat
2000.0
1000.0
0.0
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Gallager, K.S., Energy Technology Innovation Project, Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs, Kennedy
School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA. File downloaded at:
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/18152/doe_budget_authority_for_energy_research_development_and_demonstration_database.html
25
15 May 2008
History of Int’l Energy R&D
9000
8000
Canada
7000 Denmark
Finland
6000 France
Germany
m illio n s, $ U S 2004
5000 Italy
Japan
4000 Netherlands
Norway
3000
Spain
Sweden
2000
Switzerland
UK
1000
US
0
74
75
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Runci and Dooley: “Energy R&D Investments: Past and Future” (2007) 26
15 May 2008
Key Technologies &
International Cooperation
Key Technologies International Cooperation
Advanced Lighting Carbon Capture and Storage
Building & Home Construction (22 Nations)
Advanced Transportation Future Gen Coal (5 Nations)
Grid (Power Electronics) Hydrogen (17 Nations)
Global Nuclear Energy Partnership
Clean Coal
(19 Nations)
Advanced IGCC
Gen IV Nuclear (10 Nations)
Geothermal
Fusion Energy - ITER (7 Nations)
Hydro/Wind/Solar Power Global Earth Observation (71 Nations)
Rural/Village Energy Systems – Recommended by National Academy
Bioenergy of Sciences
Civilian Nuclear Power Clean Energy Technology Fund
– US, UK and Japan, World Bank
Methane Capture/Use
Asia Pacific Partnership (6 Nations)
Agriculture/Forestry
27
15 May 2008
Experience with International Collaboration
CERT(2006)7; CERT Experts Group on R&D Priority Setting and Evaluation
Summary Report of Experts Group Meeting 2004 – 2005 (Rome, Paris, Lisbon, Vienna)
Visions – Strategies – Co-operation End of Term Report 2004/2005
28
15 May 2008
Potential Areas for Int’l Collaboration
Energy End-Use Technologies Energy Supply Technologies Capture CO2 Directly from Atmosphere
Zero-Emission Vehicle Systems Stationary Fuel Cells Geologic Storage: Safety, Health, and
Environmental Risk Assessment
Multi-Modal Intercity & Freight Transport Zero-Emission Fossil Energy Geologic Storage: Large-Scale
Demonstration
Engineered Urban Designs & Regional Hydrogen Zero-Emission Fossil Energy Terrestrial Sequestration: Reforestation
Planning
Low Aviation Emissions Low-Cost H2 Storage & Delivery Terrestrial Sequestration: Soils
Conservation
Ultra-Efficient HVACR Cost-Competitive Solar PV Carbon & CO2 Based Products & Materials
Intelligent Building Systems Cellulosic Biofuels Ocean CO2 Biological Impacts Addressed
Energy Managed Communities Photolytic Water Splitting Non CO2 GHGs
C&CO2 Managed Industries Advanced Fission Reactor and Fuel Cycle Precision Agriculture
Technology
Water and Energy System Optimization Proliferation-Resistant Fuel Cycles Zero-Emission Agriculture
Industrial Heat, Power, Processes Advanced Concepts for Waste Reduction Solid-State Refrigeration/AC Systems
High-Efficiency, All-Electric Manufacturing Demonstration of Burning Plasmas Catalytic Reduction of N2O
Closed-Cycle Products & Materials Fusion Power Plants M&M
Energy Storage for Load Leveling CCS Fully Operational Sensor and Satellite
Networks
Advanced Controls and Power Electronics Post Combustion Capture Low-Cost Sensors and Communications
Wireless Transmission Oxygen Separation Technologies MM Systems Architecture
29
15 May 2008
Potential Role for IEA
Advantages:
– ETP/Scenarios Provide Foundation for Long-Term Strategic Vision
– Decades of Experience in RTD Cooperation
– Flexible Infrastructure for Countries Seeking Cooperation
– Bottom-Up Approach Accommodates Diversity of Interests
– Institutional Setting Secures High Level of Continuity
– Cooperation Rules Enable Smaller Countries to Engage Equitably
– Secretariat Provides Means for Staff Support & Management
Challenges:
– Non-Member Major Economies Must Be Engaged in Meaningful Ways
– Key Areas of CC Solutions Require Alliances with Other Parts of OECD
» Nuclear Power (NEA, IAES) and Biofuels (OECD)
– CC Technology Charter Must Be Credible and Comprehensive
» Non-CO2 Gases (CH4, N2O, SF6, HFCs), Forestry, Agriculture, Land Use
– Need for Strong Central Management to Ensure Progress & Productivity
30
15 May 2008
IEA Technology Organization
IEA GOVERNING BOARD
CERT – Committee on Energy Research and Technology
Fusion Power Fossil Fuels Renewable End Use
I Co-ordination Working Party Working Party Working Party
E Committee Hydrogen I
A Co-ordination E
Implementing Implementing Implementing Implementing Group
M A
Agreements Agreements Agreements Agreements
E
M Env. Aspects Fusion Clean Coal Centre Hydrogen Adv. Fuel Cells S
R&D Priority
B
Fusion Materials Clean Coal Science Bioenergy Adv. Materials Trans
Expert Group E
Large Tokamaks Enhanced Oil Recovery Geothermal Adv. Motor Fuels
E Nuclear Tech. Fusion Fluidised Bed Conv. Hydropower Hybrid-Elec. Vehicles
C
R Textor Greenhouse Gas R&D Ocean Energy Demand Side Mgmt. R
Rev. Field Pinches Mutiphase Flow Science Photovoltaic Power Building Conservation
Basic Science
E
Stellarator Solar Heating/Cooling District Heating/Cooling
C ASDEX Upgrade SolarPACES Energy Storage Expert Group T
O Oil & Gas Wind Turbines Heat Pumps A
U Expert Group Emissions/Combustion R
Process Integration
N Pulp & Paper
I
T Superconductivity A
Intersectoral Implementing Agreements T
R
I Climate Technology Initiative (CTI)
Energy Environmental Technologies Information Centre (EETIC)
E Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP)
S Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDE)
31
INDUSTRY NON-MEMBER COUNTRIES
Source: IEA Activities for Energy Technologies 2002 – 2004
31
15 May 2008
Summary of Challenges
Need for a Common, Visionary, Long-Term Approach, to UNFCCC Goal
Need to Accelerate Progress Toward Low-Emissions Future
One Mode is to Improve Performance, Reduce Costs of Low GHG Techs via:
– More Country RD&D ?
– More International Collaborative RD&D ?
– More Private Sector RD&D ?
– More Technology Push and Technology Pull ?
– New Models for Funding and Incentivizing RD&D ?
Expand Opportunities for S&T Cooperation Among:
– Business, Industry, Nation States, and Others
– Research Institutions and Academia
– Cooperative Frameworks with S&T Actions Abroad
Form Multi-Lateral R&D Collaborations via:
– Goal Sharing, Road Mapping, Division of Labor, Multi-Lateral Invest.
Support Deployment via Finance & Trade on Clean Energy
Build a Bridge to Low-Emissions Future with Broadened Public Support
32
15 May 2008
Back-Up Slides
33
15 May 2008
Do We Need New
R&D Management Constructs?
Are Existing R&D Management Structures Sufficient to
Speed Progress and Address Key Barriers?
Commercial Market
$ Adoption
Strategic Research
Demos
Applied
Basic &
R&D
Exploratory Deployment
Research
Enhanced R&D Operating Space Addressing Barriers to C&D Time
34
15 May 2008
Barriers Typology
Intellectual
Cost Fiscal Regulatory Statutory
Property Other Barriers
Effectiveness Barriers Barriers Barriers
Barriers
Incomplete
Unfavorable Unfavorable Unfavorable IP Transaction
High Costs and Imperfect
Fiscal Regulations Statutes Costs
Information
Anti-
Technical Fiscal Regulatory Statutory competitive Infrastructure
Risks Uncertainty Uncertainty Uncertainty Patent limitations
Practices
Weak
Unfavorable International Industry
Market Risks tariffs Patent Structure
Protection
University,
External
Industry, Misplaced
Benefits and
Government Incentives
Costs 6 Barrier Categories Perceptions
Lack of 21 Barriers Policy
Specialized
Knowledge ~50 Detailed Barriers Uncertainty
Barriers are organized into six categories consistent with EPAct 2005 Title XVI. 35
15 May 2008
Barriers – Summary of Findings
Figure ES.2 Critical and Important Barriers by CCTP Goal Area
Number of Technology Sectors Impacted by Each Barrier
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
External Benefits and Costs
High Costs Cost -
Effectiveness
Technical Risks
Barriers
Market Risks
Barrier Types (Defined in Ch. 2)
Lack of Specialized Knowledge
Unfavorable Fiscal Policies
Fiscal Barriers
Fiscal Uncertainty
Unfavorable Regulations
Regulatory Barriers
Regulatory Uncertainty
Unfavorable Statutes
Statutory Barriers
Statutory Uncertainty
Anti competitive Patent Practices CCTP Goal Areas
Energy End-Use & Infrastructure
- IP Transaction Costs Energy Supply
IP Barriers
Weak International Patent Protection Carbon Capture and Storage
Non-CO2 Gases
University, Industry, Government Perceptions
Incomplete and Imperfect Information
Infrastructure limitations
Industry Structure Other Barriers
Policy Uncertainty
Misplaced Incentives
36
15 May 2008
Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in
Energy Markets FY 2007
$6,000
$5,000 Subsidies
19%
$13.8 billion
$ Millions Per Year
$4,000 R& D
$3.1 billion
81%
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
Coal
Fusion Energy
End Use
Nuclear
Petroleum Liquids
(Not fuel specific)
Conservation
Renewables
(Including
Natural Gas and
Ethanol)
Sciences
Electricity
Source: Energy Information Administration “Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in Energy Markets 2007, SR/CNEAF/2008-01, April 2008”
37
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15 May 2008
38
15 May 2008
Policy Process Underway
Some Policy Options, by Technology Area
Technology Areas Tax Policy and Financial Incentives Legislative Acts and/or Regulation
CO2 Storage – Siting & Permitting; Monitoring and Verification; Liability
Coal w/CCS Loan Guarantees; Tax Incentives; Cost-Shared Partnerships Indemnification; New Source Review Revisions; Access to Public Lands;
Property Rights for Subsurface Areas
Liability Indemnification; Standard Design Certifications; Early Site Permits;
Loan Guarantees; Production Tax Credit; Standby Support for
Nuclear Fission Certain Delays
Combined Construction & Operating License;
Waste and Fuel Management and Storage
Public Utilities Regulatory Policies; Renewable and Distributed Generation
Loan Guarantee Program, Waste Energy Recovery Incentive Code and Standards; Transmission Pricing (Rate Structures); National
Electric Grid and Grants*; SmartGrid Investments Matching Grants*; Additional Transmission Corridors; SmartGrid Code and Standards*; Utility Energy
Infrastructure Incentives for Investments (including Cost Recovery Mechanisms) Efficiency Programs*; Standard Net Metering and Interconnection Policies;
Siting Access Rights; Access to Meter and Other Data;
Tax Credit; Manufacturing Credit; Consumer Incentives, National Regulatory Policies; Urban and Land Use Planning; CAFÉ*; Federal
Transportation Manufacturing Incentives* Fleet*
Loan Guarantees; Alternative Motor Vehicle and Alternative Fuel
Hydrogen Infrastructure Tax Credits; Investor Incentives; Insurance
Safety, Codes & Standards; Stationary Fuel Cell Permitting
Credit for installing alternative fuel refueling; Loan Guarantees; Stable Financial Incentives; National Regulatory Policies; Biofuels Tariff;
Bio-Based Fuels Production Tax Credit; Development Grants* Federal Fleet*, Standard specifications for fuels*
Loan Guarantees; Production Tax Credit; Manufacturing Partnerships*; Stable Financial Incentives;
Wind Power Clean Renewable Energy Bonds; Development Grants*; Mandated Federal Procurement of Wind Power;
Equipment Standards; Emissions Regulations;
Loan Guarantees; Efficiency Tax Credits; Sector Specific Tax
Industry Credits
Informational Partnerships (e.g.; Manufacturing Extension Partnership),
Energy-intensive industries program*
Manufacturer and Consumer Efficiency Tax Credits, Tax Federal appliance and equipment standards; Building Codes*; Government
Buildings Deductions for Commercial Buildings; Accelerated Depreciation Procurement, Federal Buildings Standards*
Loan Guarantees; Business Energy Tax Credit;
Manufacturing Partnerships*; Stable Financial Incentives;
Residential & Business Solar Investment Tax Credit;
Solar Power Clean Renewable Energy Bonds; Development Grants*;
Access to Public Lands (for concentrating solar power installations);
Mandated Federal Procurement of Solar Power
Production Tax Credit
Green: Existing Policies
39
Red: Policy Options
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