D IFR S
OPPORTUNITIES IN: Opportunities in: China’s Capital
Markets is a comprehensive
Major themes explored
analysis of the state of China’s • The outlook for the
economy and banking system. Chinese economy
Based on extensive original • Capital market and banking
research, including interviews reforms reforms to date,
with many prominent figures, and those in the pipeline
both domestic and foreign, • China’s investment plans
for its US$1.4trn of foreign
within the Chinese capital
markets, this report should be reserves
vital to everyone looking to • The likely development of
exploit China’s huge range of debt and equity markets
opportunities while keeping • Opportunities and pitfalls
BY ELLIOT WILSON their shirts on their backs. for banks and investors
BASED ON EXTENSIVE ORIGINAL RESEARCH, INCLUDING COMMENTS FROM:
Gao Xiqing, Vice Chairman, Ding Wei, Head of Investment Yi Meng, Head of China Investment Fraser Howie, Head of Structured May Tan, Chief Executive,
National Social Security Fund Banking, China International Capital Banking, CLSA Products, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets Cazenove Asia
Zhu Min, Chief Financial Officer, Corporation (CICC) Richard Brubaker, founder and Louis Hsieh, Chief Financial Officer, David Xu, Manager,
Bank of China Ha Jiming, Chief Economist, CICC Managing Director, China Strategic New Oriental Mingly China Growth Fund
Feng Gao, Head of Global Markets, Sheldon Trainor, Head of Asia Development Partners Jun Ma, Economist, Deutsche Bank Zhang Jingguo, Chief Economist,
China, Deutsche Bank Investment Banking, Merrill Lynch Kevin Yip, Chief Executive Officer, Gene Ma, Chief Economist, China Tai Kang Asset Management
Guo Shuqing, Chairman, China Johan Leven, Head of M&A for Asia Sun Partners Investment Economic & Business Monitor Philip Lisio, Director, Ogilvy
Construction Bank (CCB) ex-Japan, Goldman Sachs Management Christopher Millward, Chief Warren Blight, Analyst, Fox-Pitt,
Gao Jian, Vice Governor, China Kalpana Desai, Head of Asia Pacific Vincent Chan, Managing Director, Executive Officer, Firebrands Kelton
Development Bank M&A, Merrill Lynch North Asia, Jafco Asia Stephen Scott, Managing Director,
Jing Zhao, Head of China Global Jamie Paton, Managing Director Maurice Hoo, Partner, Corporate Alvarez & Marsal
Investment Banking, Citi Hong Kong and Head of North Asia, 3i Department, Paul Hastings
PLUS Eight more emerging market reports
OPPORTUNITIES IN: DISCOUNT
BY ELLIOT WILSON
It’s axiomatic that China offers vast
opportunities for banks and other corporates THE RISE OF CHINA’S CHINA’S BOND MARKET
keen to share in the most extraordinary EQUITY MARKETS China’s one of the biggest Asian debt markets,
economic transformation in history. Yet the but issuances are highly concentrated among a
country’s huge unemployment, groaning The report tracks China’s tempestuous affair with
its domestic equity markets since the first few issuers, and the market is very interbred –
infrastructure, growing environmental problems
domestic stock offering by Fushun No. 1 Brick issuances by the big banks are bought by their
and restrictive regulations, among a host of
other factors, conspire to create many hazards Factory on January 1, 1980. It explains why the fellow major lenders.
for the unwary investor. The fact remains that domestic equity markets have ever since swung China is desperate to develop term structures,
for all the country’s potential, successful foreign from boom to gloom to doom and back to boom to expand the liquidity of its debt market in an
investment stories are few and far between. in wildly short periods of time, and judges attempt to reduce corporates’ dependence on
whether or not this will continue. It looks at bank loans. But Beijing has always been wary of
China’s attempts to introduce foreign capital into
OVERVIEW OF CHINA TODAY its domestic stocks, and local money in foreign
accumulating debt – debt that really has to be
repaid rather than credit lines from friendly state
Opportunities in: China’s Capital Markets (mostly Hong Kong) listed stocks via the qualified banks that can merely be rolled over. Until
tracks China’s astonishing economic growth, foreign institutional investor, or QFII, scheme, and recently, China’s leaders have made it clear that
assesses its sustainability and outlines its its domestic affiliate, QDII. The report offers they simply don’t trust the concept of debt outside
probable future development. Ongoing state- insightful profiles of the major foreign and the largest, and most centrally-controlled state
mandated and foreign investment is central to domestic brokerages, and highlights the institutions. This, however, is finally changing with
continued growth, but with looming problems on opportunities and challenges facing each. the roll-out of the long-term corporate debt
the horizon – growing reliance on increasingly • What is driving the development of China’s markets, which should take shape during 2008.
expensive oil imports; a groaning infrastructure equity markets?
and mounting environmental challenges among Opportunities in: China’s Capital Markets
• How are Chinese and foreign brokerages
many others – what are the risks facing investors? reviews:
performing in the mainland. And will foreign
• What are China’s plans to move capital and investment banks ever compete on a level • What is being done to stimulate China’s long-
jobs up the value chain? playing field with their leading mainland rivals? term corporate debt markets and what will be
• What will be the effect of releasing more ‘legal the timeframe of its development?
• What are the overseas expansion plans of
Chinese corporates? person’ (LP) shares onto the market: will it • China tends to move in giant leaps –
create the long-term transparency desperately restructuring its equity markets one year;
• What is the outlook for continued growth in
needed, or cause China’s stock boom to again bailout out its banks the next, before listing
foreign direct investment?
turn into stock slump as too many shares are them. Will 2008 be the year when the
• How will China provide for a population likely to country’s long-planned long-term corporate
grow old before it grows rich? issued onto the market?
• What is the likely future for mainland-listed A debt markets finally take off?
• To what extent is Beijing prepared to further • With as many as 14 regulatory agencies
loosen its grip on the State? shares and B shares, and Hong Kong-listed red
chips and H shares? needed to approve issuance in the long-term
• How are perceived problems with corruption debt market, what is being done to streamline
and insider dealing being addressed? • Which of the three main stock exchanges –
Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong – are the process?
• What plans does China have to control its • To what extent do China’s domestic ratings
best placed for future growth and why?
environmental problems? agencies reflect true risk? How are foreign
• Will Shanghai ever manage to usurp Hong
• Which financial institutions and instruments ratings firms kept out of the market?
Kong as the leading stock market of choice for
does Beijing trust – and which does it see as • What are the prospects for the syndicated loan
mainland-focused corporate issuers and traders?
either suspicious or creating uncertainty and market?
instability? • Who actually invests in China’s stock markets?
• What are the prospects for future foreign listings • What lessons will China learn from the
• Why have the country’s debt markets been so unqualified success of its market for short-
slow to take off – while China’s equity markets by Chinese firms, and which stock markets are
likely to win the business? Will Hong Kong term commercial paper?
seem only to career, in terms of valuations, • Who are the current issuers of short-term
wildly out of control? continue to secure the bragging rights to most
overseas Chinese listings, or can Singapore, paper and how is the issuer base likely to grow?
• What makes private equity, particularly buyout • After an encouraging start, what are the
New York or London secure more China IPOs?
firms persona non grata in China? prospects for China’s stalled securitisation
• What is the future for foreign securities firms
• With Chinese banks buying stakes in lenders as market?
on the mainland? Goldman Sachs and UBS are
far apart as South Africa, the United Kingdom, • What are the prospects for the municipal bond
there – but how long will it take before the likes
and Indonesia, are there any global financial market that has been so heavily promoted by
of Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch are
lenders not in the crosshairs of the country’s the China Development Bank? Why does
handed new stock trading licenses.
leading lenders? Beijing not trust this nascent market, and why
• How have Chinese IPOs performed to date?
• What are China’s banks set to become now is it right to harbour suspicions?
they have completed their blockbuster IPOs – • What is in the IPO pipeline now that the main
and how developed are they really? state-run firms have completed their
blockbuster stock sales?
THIS REPORT SHOULD
BE VITAL TO EVERYONE
LOOKING TO EXPLOIT
CHINA’S HUGE RANGE OF
KEEPING THEIR SHIRTS
ON THEIR BACKS.
Opportunities in China’s Capital Markets looks
CHINA’S BANKS at what the domestic funds are doing and at how PRIVATE EQUITY IN CHINA
China’s lenders are an integral part of the overseas firms can capitalise on the country’s Private equity has slowly gained in acceptance in
country’s economy but for such a dynamic growing need to cater to the increasingly China though there are still deeply ingrained
economy, China remains remarkably sophisticated investment requirements of its fast- concerns about losing state control to foreign
underbanked. The market is dominated by the growing middle class and entrepreneurial class: investors. Buyout firms are still treated with huge
big three – China Construction Bank, Industrial • What is the likely future of China’s asset suspicion by Beijing, which suspects them of
and Commercial Bank of China, and Bank of management companies? being introduced only to break up its beloved state
China, supported by the trailing “fourth” lender, • How does China’s national pension fund, the firms in order to make a quick buck. However, the
Agricultural Bank of China, and a raft of mid-sized NSSF propose to deal with shortfall of several country’s growing private firms, notably in the
listed and joint stock lenders, and more than a trillion yuan in the face of an ageing population? technology and information space, have been far
hundred municipal based banks, many of which • What is the future of the new, Chinese, faster to embrace private equity and venture
are virtually bankrupt. sovereign wealth fund, the US$200 billion capital – there, the market is going much better.
Opportunities in China’s Capital Markets China Investment Corporation? Opportunities in China’s Capital Markets
addresses the fundamental issues that will • What are China’s plans for its US$1.4trn of tracks the slow but steady growth of private
determine the future of the country’s banking foreign reserves? equity in China. It profiles some of the biggest
sector: • What strategies are the foreign firms pursuing? private equity deals to date, both successes and
• To what extent are China’s listed banks still in Many have become significant players in the failures, and assesses the prospects for the
thrall to the state, and what are their asset and wealth management sector in China. market in the years ahead. It also examines the
aspirations? What, ultimately, do they aspire to • What are the growth prospects for private potentially huge market for distressed debt, as
being? Do they have a plan? Or are they just banking and wealth management? well as the small but potentially lucrative venture
making it up as they go along? capital market.
• Which of China’s banks are best positioned to CHINA’S MERGERS AND • How big is the private equity market?
win both at home and on the world stage? • What are Chinese companies looking for in
ACQUISITIONS MARKET foreign investors?
• What role will the country’s policy lenders, China
Development Bank and China Export Import M&A has long been a dirty phrase in China, but • Who are the main foreign and domestic players
Bank, play in the long-term development of that is now changing for the better. With huge in the market?
the country? numbers of big firms across most sectors, a • What lessons can be learned from the
• Have those Chinese banks boasting foreign round of domestic consolidation is desperately successes and failures of past deals?
partners gained a head start over domestic needed. In addition, China needs its biggest • What is the regulatory framework surrounding
rivals with no overseas alliance? corporates to expand abroad. On the other hand, Chinese LBOs?
• Leading listed state-run Chinese banks are foreign acquisition of Chinese firms have proved a
suddenly keen to snap up significant stakes in thorny issue for Beijing, which has been happy for
foreign banks and other firms to take strategic ABOUT THE AUTHOR
foreign lenders – is that likely to continue?
• How are the domestic banks developing in stakes in Chinese companies, but is very uneasy
Elliot Wilson is a freelance journalist based
areas like retail banking, credit cards, mortgages, about foreign firms acquiring any of its 180-200
in Mumbai, where he contributes regularly
auto loans, and in the basic but vitally important leading “strategically important” corporations, a
to a number of magazines including
area of improving their services, and offering list that is set to be reduce to 30-50 over the next
Euromoney and the Spectator in the UK,
improved customer focus? five years. Recent changes in M&A rules and
Barron’s in New York, and Hong Kong-
regulations will further complicate the picture.
• To what extent will the huge weight of non- based Asiamoney. He recently moved to
performing loans on the books of many banks Opportunities in China’s Capital Markets India's financial capital from Hong Kong,
– despite huge bail-out operations carried out examines the drivers of the M&A market and where he worked as a financial journalist for
by Beijing in 1999, and again in 2004 and 2005 weighs the opportunities for foreign banks and three and a half years. Prior to that he
– affect their prospects? investors: worked as a journalist in Beijing and
• When will China’s biggest corporates get going? Germany for AFX and Handelsblatt, after
CHINA’S INSTITUTIONAL • Why China needs consolidation at home and starting his career at an Internet business
which sectors are most in need? publication in London at an Internet
INVESTOR MARKET business magazine.
• How Chinese firms may have the cash, but
Many of the big foreign investment banks, private what about the delicate matter of how to
banks and wealth management institutions and absorb foreign firms?
mutual funds, are looking to benefit from China’s • What deals went right, what went wrong and why?
growth. Although they have been allowed access • How will recent changes in M&A regulations
to the mainland, their operations remain limited affect foreign firms? To order your copy of this
and strictly controlled, in order to allow domestic
institutions to develop their own asset
• What can be learned from the failed CNOOC- report today simply
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Opportunities in: China’s Capital
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Chapter 03 Chapter 06
CHINA’S DEBT MARKETS CHINA’S M&A SECTOR
Background Overview and background
Chapter 01 The markets The next round of state consolidation
Sovereign debt State consolidation: attracting attention
THE MACRO SITUATION –
Long-term corporate debt – the Where the money will be made
CHINA’S ECONOMY AND
awakening A new era of China M&A
Making the sale State-supported overseas investment
The positives Short-term paper Dipping into the market
The negatives Rating agencies Bagging the big elephants
The rocky road ahead Municipal bonds The private sector
China’s investment needs Securitisation Why buy abroad?
The thirst for energy – can it continue? Patchy margins
The need to push jobs and capital up the The changing landscape
value chain Chapter 04 The grab for energy – where China wins,
The branding of China CHINA’S BANKS for now
An unenviable challenge CIC – China’s powerful M&A sidekick
China-bashing Background Inward M&A d
Brand attractiveness What is the point of China’s leading Who will be bought?
The dark arts of allure banks? CICC
The next generation of brands What’s next? Unocal-CNOOC
Managing foreign firms Who controls the banks? D’Long
Environmental pressures China’s leading banks – now and down
More bad news
Xenophobia rules Industrial and Commercial Bank of Chapter 07
China PRIVATE EQUITY IN CHINA
Bank of China
Chapter 02 China Construction Bank Introduction
THE RISE OF CHINA’S Agricultural Bank of China The first big deals
EQUITY MARKETS China Development Bank Making private equity acceptable
Accommodating the customer Too much chasing too little
Background The best and worst of China’s banks Confronting challenges
Capital raising Foreign barbarians at the gate Future investments
Foreign listings: inside-out Big bad loans Getting the deals done
Foreign listings: outside-in The end of the failed state How to sell out
The future of China IPOs Restructuring the industry Running your private equity firm
Hong Kong stability Technology and IT investments
The Shanghai squeeze How China is different
When Hong Kong listings fail Chapter 05 Regulations
Will Shanghai overtake Hong Kong? CHINA’S FINANCIAL AND Who do you need approval from?
The through-train INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR Regulators
Uncertain plans MARKETS How to avoid an elephant traps
The through-train rationale The offshore option
Legal Person Shares – the ultimate Mutual funds The practitioners
government overhang Wealth management services and private Buyout deals
The path ahead banking Growth capital
The securities players Asset management companies Venture capital
The road ahead National Social Security Fund Distressed debt
China International Capital Corp (CICC) China’s foreign exchange wealth
Goldman Sachs and UBS TABLES AND CHARTS
Please note: These contents were correct at time of going to print, but may be subject to change.
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BY MOHAMMED KADA EDITED BY RICHARD SEGAL MARKETS AND BANKING BY DR SEDAT AYBAR
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Giving you an inside track on the key This report weighs up the scale of Many questions need to be In addition to a wealth of market
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oligarchs and the Kremlin • What is the nature of its capital
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see growth and investment • The Middle East as a source of • Who are the key players, and is
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• Analyses performance and future • What are the risks and
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