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                                                                                                                                                                     D IFR S
                                                                                                                                                                      IS U
                                                                                                                                                                         CO BS
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OPPORTUNITIES IN:                                                           Opportunities in: China’s Capital
                                                                            Markets is a comprehensive
                                                                                                                        Major themes explored

                                                                            analysis of the state of China’s            • The outlook for the
                                                                            economy and banking system.                   Chinese economy
                                                                            Based on extensive original                 • Capital market and banking

                                                                            research, including interviews                reforms reforms to date,
                                                                            with many prominent figures,                  and those in the pipeline
                                                                            both domestic and foreign,                  • China’s investment plans
                                                                                                                          for its US$1.4trn of foreign

                                                                            within the Chinese capital
                                                                            markets, this report should be                reserves
                                                                            vital to everyone looking to                • The likely development of
                                                                            exploit China’s huge range of                 debt and equity markets
                                                                            opportunities while keeping                 • Opportunities and pitfalls
BY ELLIOT WILSON                                                            their shirts on their backs.                  for banks and investors


Gao Xiqing, Vice Chairman,           Ding Wei, Head of Investment           Yi Meng, Head of China Investment     Fraser Howie, Head of Structured        May Tan, Chief Executive,
National Social Security Fund        Banking, China International Capital   Banking, CLSA                         Products, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets     Cazenove Asia
Zhu Min, Chief Financial Officer,    Corporation (CICC)                     Richard Brubaker, founder and         Louis Hsieh, Chief Financial Officer,   David Xu, Manager,
Bank of China                        Ha Jiming, Chief Economist, CICC       Managing Director, China Strategic    New Oriental                            Mingly China Growth Fund
Feng Gao, Head of Global Markets,    Sheldon Trainor, Head of Asia          Development Partners                  Jun Ma, Economist, Deutsche Bank        Zhang Jingguo, Chief Economist,
China, Deutsche Bank                 Investment Banking, Merrill Lynch      Kevin Yip, Chief Executive Officer,   Gene Ma, Chief Economist, China         Tai Kang Asset Management
Guo Shuqing, Chairman, China         Johan Leven, Head of M&A for Asia      Sun Partners Investment               Economic & Business Monitor             Philip Lisio, Director, Ogilvy
Construction Bank (CCB)              ex-Japan, Goldman Sachs                Management                            Christopher Millward, Chief             Warren Blight, Analyst, Fox-Pitt,
Gao Jian, Vice Governor, China       Kalpana Desai, Head of Asia Pacific    Vincent Chan, Managing Director,      Executive Officer, Firebrands           Kelton
Development Bank                     M&A, Merrill Lynch                     North Asia, Jafco Asia                Stephen Scott, Managing Director,
Jing Zhao, Head of China Global      Jamie Paton, Managing Director         Maurice Hoo, Partner, Corporate       Alvarez & Marsal
Investment Banking, Citi Hong Kong   and Head of North Asia, 3i             Department, Paul Hastings
                                                                            Hong Kong

                                                                                                  PLUS Eight more emerging market reports

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OPPORTUNITIES IN:                                                                                                                        DISCOUNT
                                                                                                                                           FOR IFR



It’s axiomatic that China offers vast
opportunities for banks and other corporates          THE RISE OF CHINA’S                                    CHINA’S BOND MARKET
keen to share in the most extraordinary               EQUITY MARKETS                                         China’s one of the biggest Asian debt markets,
economic transformation in history. Yet the                                                                  but issuances are highly concentrated among a
country’s huge unemployment, groaning                 The report tracks China’s tempestuous affair with
                                                      its domestic equity markets since the first            few issuers, and the market is very interbred –
infrastructure, growing environmental problems
                                                      domestic stock offering by Fushun No. 1 Brick          issuances by the big banks are bought by their
and restrictive regulations, among a host of
other factors, conspire to create many hazards        Factory on January 1, 1980. It explains why the        fellow major lenders.
for the unwary investor. The fact remains that        domestic equity markets have ever since swung          China is desperate to develop term structures,
for all the country’s potential, successful foreign   from boom to gloom to doom and back to boom            to expand the liquidity of its debt market in an
investment stories are few and far between.           in wildly short periods of time, and judges            attempt to reduce corporates’ dependence on
                                                      whether or not this will continue. It looks at         bank loans. But Beijing has always been wary of
                                                      China’s attempts to introduce foreign capital into
OVERVIEW OF CHINA TODAY                               its domestic stocks, and local money in foreign
                                                                                                             accumulating debt – debt that really has to be
                                                                                                             repaid rather than credit lines from friendly state
Opportunities in: China’s Capital Markets             (mostly Hong Kong) listed stocks via the qualified     banks that can merely be rolled over. Until
tracks China’s astonishing economic growth,           foreign institutional investor, or QFII, scheme, and   recently, China’s leaders have made it clear that
assesses its sustainability and outlines its          its domestic affiliate, QDII. The report offers        they simply don’t trust the concept of debt outside
probable future development. Ongoing state-           insightful profiles of the major foreign and           the largest, and most centrally-controlled state
mandated and foreign investment is central to         domestic brokerages, and highlights the                institutions. This, however, is finally changing with
continued growth, but with looming problems on        opportunities and challenges facing each.              the roll-out of the long-term corporate debt
the horizon – growing reliance on increasingly        • What is driving the development of China’s           markets, which should take shape during 2008.
expensive oil imports; a groaning infrastructure        equity markets?
and mounting environmental challenges among                                                                  Opportunities in: China’s Capital Markets
                                                      • How are Chinese and foreign brokerages
many others – what are the risks facing investors?                                                           reviews:
                                                        performing in the mainland. And will foreign
• What are China’s plans to move capital and            investment banks ever compete on a level             • What is being done to stimulate China’s long-
  jobs up the value chain?                              playing field with their leading mainland rivals?      term corporate debt markets and what will be
                                                      • What will be the effect of releasing more ‘legal       the timeframe of its development?
• What are the overseas expansion plans of
  Chinese corporates?                                   person’ (LP) shares onto the market: will it         • China tends to move in giant leaps –
                                                        create the long-term transparency desperately          restructuring its equity markets one year;
• What is the outlook for continued growth in
                                                        needed, or cause China’s stock boom to again           bailout out its banks the next, before listing
  foreign direct investment?
                                                        turn into stock slump as too many shares are           them. Will 2008 be the year when the
• How will China provide for a population likely to                                                            country’s long-planned long-term corporate
  grow old before it grows rich?                        issued onto the market?
                                                      • What is the likely future for mainland-listed A        debt markets finally take off?
• To what extent is Beijing prepared to further                                                              • With as many as 14 regulatory agencies
  loosen its grip on the State?                         shares and B shares, and Hong Kong-listed red
                                                        chips and H shares?                                    needed to approve issuance in the long-term
• How are perceived problems with corruption                                                                   debt market, what is being done to streamline
  and insider dealing being addressed?                • Which of the three main stock exchanges –
                                                        Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong – are                 the process?
• What plans does China have to control its                                                                  • To what extent do China’s domestic ratings
                                                        best placed for future growth and why?
  environmental problems?                                                                                      agencies reflect true risk? How are foreign
                                                      • Will Shanghai ever manage to usurp Hong
• Which financial institutions and instruments                                                                 ratings firms kept out of the market?
                                                        Kong as the leading stock market of choice for
  does Beijing trust – and which does it see as                                                              • What are the prospects for the syndicated loan
                                                        mainland-focused corporate issuers and traders?
  either suspicious or creating uncertainty and                                                                market?
  instability?                                        • Who actually invests in China’s stock markets?
                                                      • What are the prospects for future foreign listings   • What lessons will China learn from the
• Why have the country’s debt markets been so                                                                  unqualified success of its market for short-
  slow to take off – while China’s equity markets       by Chinese firms, and which stock markets are
                                                        likely to win the business? Will Hong Kong             term commercial paper?
  seem only to career, in terms of valuations,                                                               • Who are the current issuers of short-term
  wildly out of control?                                continue to secure the bragging rights to most
                                                        overseas Chinese listings, or can Singapore,           paper and how is the issuer base likely to grow?
• What makes private equity, particularly buyout                                                             • After an encouraging start, what are the
                                                        New York or London secure more China IPOs?
  firms persona non grata in China?                                                                            prospects for China’s stalled securitisation
                                                      • What is the future for foreign securities firms
• With Chinese banks buying stakes in lenders as                                                               market?
                                                        on the mainland? Goldman Sachs and UBS are
  far apart as South Africa, the United Kingdom,                                                             • What are the prospects for the municipal bond
                                                        there – but how long will it take before the likes
  and Indonesia, are there any global financial                                                                market that has been so heavily promoted by
                                                        of Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch are
  lenders not in the crosshairs of the country’s                                                               the China Development Bank? Why does
                                                        handed new stock trading licenses.
  leading lenders?                                                                                             Beijing not trust this nascent market, and why
                                                      • How have Chinese IPOs performed to date?
• What are China’s banks set to become now                                                                     is it right to harbour suspicions?
  they have completed their blockbuster IPOs –        • What is in the IPO pipeline now that the main
  and how developed are they really?                    state-run firms have completed their
                                                        blockbuster stock sales?
market intelligence

                                                        THIS REPORT SHOULD
                                                        BE VITAL TO EVERYONE
                                                        LOOKING TO EXPLOIT
                                                        CHINA’S HUGE RANGE OF
                                                        OPPORTUNITIES WHILE
                                                        KEEPING THEIR SHIRTS
                                                        ON THEIR BACKS.

                                                        Opportunities in China’s Capital Markets looks
CHINA’S BANKS                                           at what the domestic funds are doing and at how         PRIVATE EQUITY IN CHINA
China’s lenders are an integral part of the             overseas firms can capitalise on the country’s          Private equity has slowly gained in acceptance in
country’s economy but for such a dynamic                growing need to cater to the increasingly               China though there are still deeply ingrained
economy, China remains remarkably                       sophisticated investment requirements of its fast-      concerns about losing state control to foreign
underbanked. The market is dominated by the             growing middle class and entrepreneurial class:         investors. Buyout firms are still treated with huge
big three – China Construction Bank, Industrial         • What is the likely future of China’s asset            suspicion by Beijing, which suspects them of
and Commercial Bank of China, and Bank of                  management companies?                                being introduced only to break up its beloved state
China, supported by the trailing “fourth” lender,       • How does China’s national pension fund, the           firms in order to make a quick buck. However, the
Agricultural Bank of China, and a raft of mid-sized        NSSF propose to deal with shortfall of several       country’s growing private firms, notably in the
listed and joint stock lenders, and more than a            trillion yuan in the face of an ageing population?   technology and information space, have been far
hundred municipal based banks, many of which            • What is the future of the new, Chinese,               faster to embrace private equity and venture
are virtually bankrupt.                                    sovereign wealth fund, the US$200 billion            capital – there, the market is going much better.
Opportunities in China’s Capital Markets                   China Investment Corporation?                        Opportunities in China’s Capital Markets
addresses the fundamental issues that will              • What are China’s plans for its US$1.4trn of           tracks the slow but steady growth of private
determine the future of the country’s banking              foreign reserves?                                    equity in China. It profiles some of the biggest
sector:                                                 • What strategies are the foreign firms pursuing?       private equity deals to date, both successes and
• To what extent are China’s listed banks still in         Many have become significant players in the          failures, and assesses the prospects for the
  thrall to the state, and what are their                  asset and wealth management sector in China.         market in the years ahead. It also examines the
  aspirations? What, ultimately, do they aspire to      • What are the growth prospects for private             potentially huge market for distressed debt, as
  being? Do they have a plan? Or are they just             banking and wealth management?                       well as the small but potentially lucrative venture
  making it up as they go along?                                                                                capital market.
• Which of China’s banks are best positioned to         CHINA’S MERGERS AND                                     • How big is the private equity market?
  win both at home and on the world stage?                                                                      • What are Chinese companies looking for in
                                                        ACQUISITIONS MARKET                                       foreign investors?
• What role will the country’s policy lenders, China
  Development Bank and China Export Import              M&A has long been a dirty phrase in China, but          • Who are the main foreign and domestic players
  Bank, play in the long-term development of            that is now changing for the better. With huge            in the market?
  the country?                                          numbers of big firms across most sectors, a             • What lessons can be learned from the
• Have those Chinese banks boasting foreign             round of domestic consolidation is desperately            successes and failures of past deals?
  partners gained a head start over domestic            needed. In addition, China needs its biggest            • What is the regulatory framework surrounding
  rivals with no overseas alliance?                     corporates to expand abroad. On the other hand,           Chinese LBOs?
• Leading listed state-run Chinese banks are            foreign acquisition of Chinese firms have proved a
  suddenly keen to snap up significant stakes in        thorny issue for Beijing, which has been happy for
                                                        foreign banks and other firms to take strategic         ABOUT THE AUTHOR
  foreign lenders – is that likely to continue?
• How are the domestic banks developing in              stakes in Chinese companies, but is very uneasy
                                                                                                                  Elliot Wilson is a freelance journalist based
  areas like retail banking, credit cards, mortgages,   about foreign firms acquiring any of its 180-200
                                                                                                                  in Mumbai, where he contributes regularly
  auto loans, and in the basic but vitally important    leading “strategically important” corporations, a
                                                                                                                  to a number of magazines including
  area of improving their services, and offering        list that is set to be reduce to 30-50 over the next
                                                                                                                  Euromoney and the Spectator in the UK,
  improved customer focus?                              five years. Recent changes in M&A rules and
                                                                                                                  Barron’s in New York, and Hong Kong-
                                                        regulations will further complicate the picture.
• To what extent will the huge weight of non-                                                                     based Asiamoney. He recently moved to
  performing loans on the books of many banks           Opportunities in China’s Capital Markets                  India's financial capital from Hong Kong,
  – despite huge bail-out operations carried out        examines the drivers of the M&A market and                where he worked as a financial journalist for
  by Beijing in 1999, and again in 2004 and 2005        weighs the opportunities for foreign banks and            three and a half years. Prior to that he
  – affect their prospects?                             investors:                                                worked as a journalist in Beijing and
                                                        • When will China’s biggest corporates get going?         Germany for AFX and Handelsblatt, after
CHINA’S INSTITUTIONAL                                   • Why China needs consolidation at home and               starting his career at an Internet business
                                                           which sectors are most in need?                        publication in London at an Internet
INVESTOR MARKET                                                                                                   business magazine.
                                                        • How Chinese firms may have the cash, but
Many of the big foreign investment banks, private          what about the delicate matter of how to
banks and wealth management institutions and               absorb foreign firms?
mutual funds, are looking to benefit from China’s       • What deals went right, what went wrong and why?
growth. Although they have been allowed access          • How will recent changes in M&A regulations
to the mainland, their operations remain limited           affect foreign firms?                                     To order your copy of this
and strictly controlled, in order to allow domestic
institutions to develop their own asset
                                                        • What can be learned from the failed CNOOC-                 report today simply
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                                                                                                                Markets is also available in PDF format,
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          EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                          Chapter 03                                              Chapter 06
                                                     CHINA’S DEBT MARKETS                                   CHINA’S M&A SECTOR
                                                     Background                                             Overview and background
           Chapter 01                                The markets                                            The next round of state consolidation
                                                      Sovereign debt                                          State consolidation: attracting attention
                                                      Long-term corporate debt – the                        Where the money will be made
                                                         awakening                                          A new era of China M&A
                                                      Making the sale                                         State-supported overseas investment
          The positives                               Short-term paper                                        Dipping into the market
          The negatives                              Rating agencies                                          Bagging the big elephants
           The rocky road ahead                      Municipal bonds                                          The private sector
          China’s investment needs                   Securitisation                                         Why buy abroad?
          The thirst for energy – can it continue?                                                          Patchy margins
          The need to push jobs and capital up the                                                          The changing landscape
           value chain                               Chapter 04                                             The grab for energy – where China wins,
          The branding of China                      CHINA’S BANKS                                            for now
           An unenviable challenge                                                                          CIC – China’s powerful M&A sidekick
           China-bashing                             Background                                             Inward M&A d
           Brand attractiveness                      What is the point of China’s leading                   Who will be bought?
           The dark arts of allure                    banks?                                                  CICC
           The next generation of brands             What’s next?                                             Unocal-CNOOC
          Managing foreign firms                     Who controls the banks?                                  D’Long
          Environmental pressures                    China’s leading banks – now and down
                                                         the line
           More bad news
           Xenophobia rules                           Industrial and Commercial Bank of                      Chapter 07
                                                         China                                              PRIVATE EQUITY IN CHINA
                                                      Bank of China
           Chapter 02                                 China Construction Bank                               Introduction
          THE RISE OF CHINA’S                         Agricultural Bank of China                            The first big deals
          EQUITY MARKETS                              China Development Bank                                  Making private equity acceptable
                                                     Accommodating the customer                               Too much chasing too little
          Background                                 The best and worst of China’s banks                    Confronting challenges
          Capital raising                            Foreign barbarians at the gate                         Future investments
           Foreign listings: inside-out              Big bad loans                                          Getting the deals done
           Foreign listings: outside-in               The end of the failed state                             How to sell out
          The future of China IPOs                    Restructuring the industry                              Running your private equity firm
           Hong Kong stability                                                                              Technology and IT investments
           The Shanghai squeeze                                                                             How China is different
           When Hong Kong listings fail              Chapter 05                                             Regulations
           Will Shanghai overtake Hong Kong?         CHINA’S FINANCIAL AND                                    Who do you need approval from?
          The through-train                          INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR                                   Regulators
           Uncertain plans                           MARKETS                                                  How to avoid an elephant traps
           The through-train rationale                                                                      The offshore option
          Legal Person Shares – the ultimate         Mutual funds                                           The practitioners
           government overhang                       Wealth management services and private                   Buyout deals
          The path ahead                              banking                                                 Growth capital
           The securities players                    Asset management companies                               Venture capital
           The road ahead                            National Social Security Fund                            Distressed debt
           China International Capital Corp (CICC)   China’s foreign exchange wealth
           CITIC Group
           Goldman Sachs and UBS                                                                             TABLES AND CHARTS

                                                                            Please note: These contents were correct at time of going to print, but may be subject to change.
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THE FUTURE OF THE                           OPPORTUNITIES IN:                        OPPORTUNITIES IN:                         OPPORTUNITIES IN:
ISLAMIC CAPITAL                             SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA’S                     CENTRAL AND EASTERN                       TURKISH CAPITAL
MARKETS                                     CAPITAL MARKETS                          EUROPEAN CAPITAL                          MARKETS AND BANKING
BY MOHAMMED KADA                            EDITED BY RICHARD SEGAL                  MARKETS AND BANKING                       BY DR SEDAT AYBAR
                                                                                     BY BEN ARIS

Written by one of the world’s foremost      This unique report provides the most     From Armenia to Uzbekistan, this          This comprehensive report analyses
authorities on the subject, the             comprehensive and authoritative          report provides a comprehensive           the prospects for both domestic and
definitive report is packed with highly     analysis available on the region’s       review of the economic and banking        foreign players by providing expert
informed, practical advice on the           economic and banking sector              sector reforms across the entire          viewpoints on:
Islamic finance phenomenon:                 transformation, covering:                region, with 19 comprehensive             • Product developments – analysis
• Current and future market                 • Market Reforms – reveals openings      country profiles each examining:            across the equity and debt
  direction                                   created and those required to          • Economic and financial                    markets
• Financial instruments and likely            unlock the region’s full potential       fundamentals                            • Forecasts – outlook for the
  structural developments                   • High level contributors – give         • Their relationship with Russia            economy and banking sector
• Drivers of market growth and how            practical advice on doing business       and other neighbours                    • Profiles – strategic reviews of over
  best to succeed                             in the region                          • Banking sector reforms and                25 domestic and foreign banks.
• The main players in Islamic capital       • 18 country profiles – all you need       funding requirements.
  markets.                                    to know on each market .

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                                                                                                       PRICE                                        PRICE

OPPORTUNITIES IN:                           OPPORTUNITIES IN:                        OPPORTUNITIES IN:                         OPPORTUNITIES IN:
RUSSIAN CAPITAL                             MIDDLE EAST CAPITAL                      INDIAN CAPITAL                            BRAZILIAN CAPITAL
MARKETS                                     MARKETS                                  MARKETS                                   MARKETS
BY BEN ARIS                                 BY NICK KOCHAN AND LEAH BOUNDY           BY SHANKAR RAMAKRISHNAN                   BY ANTHONY DOVKANTS

Giving you an inside track on the key       This report weighs up the scale of       Many questions need to be                 In addition to a wealth of market
challenges and prospects facing             opportunities balanced against the       answered before India’s huge              data, company profiles and
investors looking for a share in            political risk for the region’s          optimism can be realised. This            interviews, this insightful report
Russia’s awesome growth, this report:       economies. Key themes covered            report tackles them head-on:              demystifies Latin America’s largest
• Reviews economic and financial            include:                                 • What’s the status and prospects         local and external market,
  indicators, political events, oil price   • The Middle East as a borrower in         of India’s financial markets?           answering the key issues for
  scenarios and the influence of the           global debt markets                                                             newcomers and experts alike:
                                                                                     • How is each asset class
  oligarchs and the Kremlin                                                                                                    • What is the nature of its capital
                                            • Equity investment and new                 performing and which are set for
• Evaluates reforms and challenges            financial centres                         growth?                                   markets cycle?
  facing the sector and where banks                                                                                            • What are the prospects and
  see growth and investment                 • The Middle East as a source of         • Who are the key players, and is
                                              investment                                consolidation imminent?                      trends for the key asset classes?
• Analyses performance and future                                                                                              • What are the risks and
  outlooks for every asset class,           • International banks move in –          Viewpoints from the industry’s
                                              profiles of the key players.           most senior executives also feature             opportunities for newcomers
  compared to other BRIC countries.
                                                                                     in this 298-page report.                        to Brazil?

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     OPPORTUNITIES IN: CHINA’S CAPITAL MARKETS                                                                                                                            NEW              NOV 07                                 £795/US$1511
     OPPORTUNITIES IN: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA‘S CAPITAL MARKETS                                                                                                               NEW              NOV 07                                 £795/US$1511
     THE FUTURE OF ISLAMIC CAPITAL MARKETS                                                                                                                                NEW              NOV 07                                 £795/US$1511
     OPPORTUNITIES IN: TURKISH CAPITAL MARKETS AND BANKING                                                                                                                NEW              NOV 07                                 £795/US$1511
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