China and India Similar Dreams, Different Plans

							China and India: Similar Dreams, Different Plans


              Discussion: April 13, 2009
             UCSB Engineering 191L/291L
              UCSB Website April 2009
                 Karen Smith Bogart
Wary Coopetition

• Long Border

• Demographics

•>$40B Trade Value
       •China is India’s #2 export market
       • India is China’s #10 largest

• Growth

• Investment

• Growing strategic, military and economic cooperation

• Military:
     • China has large military; nuclear arms; regional and global aspirations.
     • India is also nuclear. Focused more sub-regionally.
China: Older, Relatively Healthier

China                                                  2008    1995    2005    2015    2025


Population
  Midyear population (in millions)                     1,330   1,216   1,306   1,393   1,453
  Growth rate (percent)                                  0.6     1.0     0.6     0.6     0.2
Fertility
  Total fertility rate (births per woman)                1.8     1.8     1.7     1.9     1.8
  Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)                14      17      13      14      11
  Births (in millions)                                   18      21      17      19      15
Mortality
  Life expectancy at birth (years)                       73      70      72      75      77
  Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)               21      36      24      16      11
  Under 5 mortality rate (per 1,000 births)              26      44      29      19      13
  Crude death rate (per 1,000 population)                 7       7       7       7       8
  Deaths (in millions)                                    9       8       9      10      12
Migration
  Net migration rate (per 1,000 population)                -       -       -       -       -
  Net number of migrants (in millions)                    -1       -      -1      -1       -
- Represents or rounds to zero.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.
India: Younger, Growing Faster

 India                                                  2008    1995   2005    2015    2025


 Population
   Midyear population (in millions)                     1,148   918    1,094   1,274   1,449
   Growth rate (percent)                                  1.6    1.8     1.7     1.4     1.2
 Fertility
   Total fertility rate (births per woman)                2.8    3.4     2.9     2.5     2.2
   Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)                22     28      24      20      17
   Births (in millions)                                   26     26      26      25      25
 Mortality
   Life expectancy at birth (years)                       69     60      67      73      78
   Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)               32     72      40      20      10
   Under 5 mortality rate (per 1,000 births)              41     98      51      24      12
   Crude death rate (per 1,000 population)                 6     10       7       6       5
   Deaths (in millions)                                    7      9       8       7       7
 Migration
   Net migration rate (per 1,000 population)                -      -       -       -       -
   Net number of migrants (in millions)                     -      -       -       -       -
 - Represents or rounds to zero.
 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.
Population: 2002




Worldmapper.org 2009: Relative proportion of the world's population living there
Population: 2050




Worldmapper.org 2009: Forecast of relative proportion of the world's population living there
Life Expectancy Patterns
China and India: Sobering Realities

                   China: 1.3B             India: 1.1B             USA: .3B
                   $ 8862 per capita/GDP   $ 3724 per capita/GDP   $ 44617 per
                   8% growth               5% growth               capita/GDP

 Food at Home      34%                     46%                     12%

 Clothing          7%                      7%                      6%


 Housing           14%                     12%                     18%

 Household Ops     6%                      5%                      8%

 Healthcare        7%                      5%                      11%

 Education         7%                      6%                      8%

 Communication &   10%                     9%                      14%
 Transportation
 Recreation        5%                      3%                      8%

 Other             10%                     7%                      15%
Ecological Footprint




 Worldmapper.org: Area needed to support a population’s lifestyle consuming food, fuel,
 wood, and fibers. Pollution is included.
Sustainability: Water Depletion




 Worldmapper.org: >10% water used annually
Sustainability: Agricultural Water Usage




 Worldmapper.org 2009
Sustainability: Industrial Water Usage




 Worldmapper.org: 2009
China and India: Oil Consumption
China: Products
China and India: Products and Services
China and India: Exports
China and India: Economic Growth
India: Service Exports
India: Services Productivity
US Service Exports: 2006
 UK                        $48B

 Japan                     $41B

 Canada                    $39B

 Mexico                    $22B

 Germany                   $20B

 France                    $11B
 Switzerland
 South Korea
 China
 Netherlands               $10B


 Australia                 $9B

 Brazil                    $7.5B
 Italy
 Taiwan                    $7B
 India

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Annual Report, 2007.
China and India: Economic Freedom
Ease of Doing Business
China and India: Oil Consumption
China and India:


  •   Why consider together?
  •   Differences
  •   Similarities
  •   Cultures