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The Parties at Parity

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					The Parties at Parity
The Elusive Majority in Presidential Politics
60 52.6 50 40 30 20 10 0 1932-64 1968-88 1992 1996 2000 45.8 42.8 52.4 49.2 43 38 40.7 48.4 47.9

Democrat

Republican

The Parties at Parity
The Tie in the House
60 52 50 40 30 20 10 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 45 52 44 54 46 49 51 49 49 48 49 49 49

Democrat

Republican

Direction of the Country
In generally think think our country is on the right track Do you general, do you that things in the country are headed in the or or are they off on the wrong track? right directionoff on the wrong track?
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%

71% 52%

68% 58%

52%

49%

47%

46% 43% 26% 23% 19%

35%

34%

37%

37%

10% 0%

/6

16

/2

/2

2/

12

9/

10

4/

/2

10

Right
Penn, Schoen and Berland

Wrong

11

1/

25

5

1

3

1

Direction of the Economy
In general, do you think our economy is on the right track or off on the wrong track?
80% 70% 60% 50% 40%

71% 66% 56% 44% 47% 43% 49% 44% 35% 41% 47% 47%

30% 20%

43% 25% 20%

40%

10% 0%

1

5

3

12 /6

16

10 /2

1

2/

10 /2

9/

11 /2

4/

Right
Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates

Wrong

1/

25

Most Important Problem
What do you think is the most important problem facing the country?

Most Important Problem Economy and Jobs Terrorism/War/Security Education Taxes Social Security/Medicare Healthcare

All 27% 25% 5% 5% 4% 3%

Indy 28% 22% 3% 2% 4% 2%
CBS/NY Times 1/25
5

Economy or Terrorism?
What do you think is a bigger problem facing the nation right now: terrorism or the economy?

54% 43%

Terrorism
ABC News/Washington Post –1/28

Economy

Check on Bush
Do you want your representative in Congress to be someone who will be a check on George W. Bush or someone who will vote down the line with George W. Bush?

58% 31%

Check on Bush

Vote Down the Line with Bush

Swing Voters: 59/25%; Independents: 63/26%

Budget Deficit Politics
Now that we have a budget deficit, do you think that if Democrats control Congress they would try to raise taxes, or not?
Now that we have a budget deficit, do you think that if Republicans control Congress they could try to cut Medicare, education and the environment, or not?

56%

48% 41%

31%

Raise taxes

Not raise taxes

Will cut

Will not cut

Bush Coattails
Bush and Congressional GOP Versus Congressional Dems
Issue
Preparing Americans for the New Economy

Bush C Rep Bush+ +8 8 +16

Getting the Economy Growing Again
Improving Education Asking People to Give Something Back

+14
+9 +17

+6
-8 -6

8
17 23

National Security Fighting Terrorism

+57 +58

+35 +40

22 18

Clinton/Congressional Dems
Why Clinton Won Re-Election in 1996 and Republicans Held Congress
Issue Clinton+ Balance Budget 10 Welfare 9 Crime 9 Education 5

Preference for Party Control
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 41 36 44 36 43 36 36 31 42 44

President Congress Governor Congress Congress
Penn Poll Gallup

Democrat

Republican


				
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