Talking Global Warming

Talking Global Warming “The way in which the world is imagined determines at any particular moment what men will do.” Walter Lippmann, Public Opinion, 1921 Strategic Frame Analysis • Pays attention to the public’s deeply held worldviews and widely held assumptions. • Studies those assumptions to determine their impact on policy preferences. • Taps into decades of scholarly research on how people think and communicate. • Suggests ways to help people reconsider issues by changing the way issues are framed. What Is A Frame? “The way a story is told – its selective use of particular symbols, metaphors, and messengers – which, in turn, triggers the shared and durable cultural models that people use to make sense of their world.” (Bales and Gilliam) Questions We Pursue • How does the public think about an issue? • Are there dominant frames that appear almost automatic? • How do these dominant frames affect policy choices? • How are these dominant frames reinforced? • How can the issue be reframed to invigorate less accessible frames that evoke a different way of thinking and alternative policy choices? Rethinking Communications • • • • People are not blank slates Communications is interactive The currency of communications is frames Communications resonates with people‟s deeply held values and worldviews • When communications is inadequate, people default to the “pictures in their heads” • These default frames are heavily influenced by news media • When communications is effective, people can see an issue from a different perspective The Cognitive Perspective Are you satisfied with current child care arrangements? 83% say yes Issue Visible Attitude Hidden Reasoning What are they thinking? Issue Visible Attitude Implication 1 Model A Implication 2 Implication 3 Implication 4 Model B Implication 5 Implication 6 Implication 7 Model C Implication 8 Implication 9 Elements of the Frame • • • • • • • • Context Numbers Messengers Tone Visuals Metaphors and Models Stories Values Levels of Thinking • Level One: Big ideas, like justice, prevention, family, equality and opportunity • Level Two: Issue-types, like women‟s rights, the environment, children‟s issues, work • Level Three: Specific issues, like treatment of women by the Taliban, rainforests, daycare, minimum wage What Is the Message We Are Delivering? Safety? Vote (Democratic) Conserve water Safety? ? Lifestyle? Economy? Seas rising, fish dying, global warming, pollution, 4Ps = BIG PROBLEM Recreation/Environment? Framing and Reframing Global Warming A Summary of the FrameWorks Research FrameWorks Research Completed • • • • A review of recent survey research Cognitive elicitations with the public Content analysis of TV news and print media Cognitive analysis of environmental websites, materials, op-eds and news Focus groups A new national priming survey Talkback testing of simplifying models A Post 911 survey on tone • • • • What is Global Warming About? Scary Weather Natural not man-made Consequences not solutions Triggers adaptation Outside human control Economy Necessary evil; no other solution Triggers asceticism 3 of 4 becomes pragmatic compromise Why Doesn’t Extreme Weather Work? • If it‟s weather, is the problem natural or man-made? • If it‟s weather, is it political? • If it‟s weather, who is responsible? • If it‟s weather, can it be prevented? • What‟s the best way to prepare for bad weather? 1 2 Acts of God Protection Self-Interest Weather Environment Energy Economy Global Warming 3 Global Warming Global Warming Situation Analysis --Americans: 1. Believe global warming is real. 2. Understand negative consequences. 3. Are not yet sufficiently motivated to adopt preventive, policy solutions. 4. Do not understand man-made causes and solutions, only impacts. 5. Are turned off by partisan tone of debate. Summary of Recommendations 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. The message needs to attach to responsibility and planning. Bring global warming down to earth; make it manageable. Give the public a simplifying model of global warming. Use reasonable, not rhetorical, tone to engage listening. Use frame elements strategically, especially tone and numbers. Give solutions high priority. Be strategic in the order of presentation. 1 2 Responsibility Stewardship Acts of God Self-Interest Solutions Technology Weather Energy 3 CO2 Problem Global Warming Fossil Fuels The message needs to attach to responsibility and planning. • Manager – minimize risk, demonstrate stability and competence orientation • Pioneer/visionary – innovation and emphasis on long-term planning • Steward - religious and future generations orientation What is the responsible thing to do? Responsibility Submessages • Prudence is minimizing risk. Is it prudent to wait for more evidence while the problem grows? • Isn‟t it better to be safe than sorry? • Reliance is vulnerability. Is it responsible to rely on one energy source? • Is it responsible to only plan for the short-term? • Are our leaders being prudent managers? Responsible Manager in our Heads “I would love some guy like Ross Perot to…put up charts and go, „Here is our problem…Here are the potential solutions.‟ There doesn‟t seem to be a national movement led by the administration to take us in a certain direction and make sure we are environmentally safe and sound.” Focus group participant Visionary Meets American Can Do “The Manhattan Project. the Apollo Program. The silicon chip. The Internet. Time and again, America has proven that putting together the best minds and the right resources can result in technological breakthroughs that change the course of human history.” UCS Common Sense on Climate Change Steward “New England is a special place. But we need to act soon to prevent global warming from transforming the character of our region. We all have a responsibility for the stewardship of our environment. A healthy planet and a stable climate is a legacy we can be proud to leave our children.” Clean Air Cool Planet Bring global warming down to earth; make it manageable. • Shift scientists from proving global warming to explaining global warming. • Explain causes as man-made, stress agency. • Explain causes before consequences. • Relate causes and consequences in systems thinking. • Put humans in the center of the system – ecosystems include humans. • Reduce the timeline – 20 years not 2000. Use A Simplifying Model for Global Warming Axel Aubrun, Ph.D. Joseph Grady, Ph.D. The Debate Trap • Scientists are comfortable debating • Debate is the wrong model – It‟s unnecessary – the public is convinced – Debate is a “turn-off” – Hedges are disengaging The Knowledge Vacuum • Very few people understand the mechanism. • Understanding  Motivation • D'Andrade (1992), Schemas and Motivation, Human Motives and Cultural Models • Shore (1996), Culture in Mind: Cognition, Culture and the Problem of Meaning • Scientists as trusted messengers The “Adaptationist” Response The Expert Model “Simplifying Model” A simple concrete analogy that conveys the essence of an expert understanding Analogies in Science – “First Rung Theories” Analogies in Science – “First Rung Theories” “the heart is a pump” “the eye is a camera” “the cell is a factory” “the kidney is a waste filter” “photosynthesis is like baking bread” “an electric circuit is like a water conduit” “the brain is a computer” – Thagard (1997), Medical Analogies: Why and How, Proceedings of the 19th Annual Conf. of the Cog. Sci. Soc. – Biela (1991). Analogy in science – Gentner & Gentner (1983), Flowing waters or teeming crowds: Mental models of electricity, Mental Models – Gregory (1981), Mind in Science: A History of Explanations in Psychology and Physics – Hesse (1963), Models and analogies in science Constraints on Public Communication In order to spread through the population, a model of global warming should:  Be learnable through very brief exposures  Be easily conveyed to others once learned  Be easy to present to the public in multiple ways, including both verbal and visual. Knowledge that Spreads “In an oral tradition, all cultural representations are easily remembered ones; hard to remember representations are forgotten, or transformed into more easily remembered ones, before reaching a cultural level of distribution” Sperber (1985: 86), – Sperber (1996), Explaining Culture: A Naturalistic Approach – Strauss & Quinn (1997), A cognitive theory of cultural meaning – D’Andrade (1981), The cultural part of cognition, Cog.Sci. – Dennett (1995), Darwin’s Dangerous Idea The Hole in the Roof Scenario Existing models • Global Warming/Climate Change – A process, not a “thing” – Not clearly a problem – No mechanism • Greenhouse Effect – A nice analogy in principle – Misleading – Not very contagious The Causal Chain of Global Warming (A) Burning Fossil Fuels (B) CO2 Buildup (C) CO2 Traps Heat (D) Temperature Rise (E) Negative Consequences TalkBack Testing • 400 subjects • 25 “Primes” – comparison of impacts vs. mechanism • Qualitative and quantitative quiz Example “Prime” Nearly all experts agree that the average global temperature is rising, and that humans are causing this change. Experts sometimes refer to the problem of global warming as "CO2 Heat Lock." Normally, the atmosphere allows excess heat to rise away from the Earth. By doubling the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air we are blocking heat from escaping into space, and locking it into our own atmosphere. Heat just isn’t getting out. It's as though there were a CO2 Lock keeping the heat in. This trapped heat is raising temperatures and causing problems all over the world. TalkBack Results • Result: Remarkable learning • Further confirmation in survey research: – Greenberg & Boorstin, May 2002: “[U]sing simple explanatory models to explain global warming has a strong, positive impact on driving up levels of concern about the issue. […] Rarely, in fact, does research provide such clear directions.” Recommended simplifying model Carbon Dioxide Blanket • A “physical” object • Focuses on main cognitive hurdle • Not too metaphorical • Displaces Ozone Layer Recommended supporting language Heat Trapping • Essence of the mechanism • Easily understood • Easily remembered and repeated • Commonly used by journalists • Clarifies and reinforces “Carbon Dioxide Blanket” Using a Simplifying Model • “When we burn fossil fuels like coal and gas, we pump more and more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and this build-up creates a blanket effect, trapping in heat around the world.” • Use early • Repeat often, in different variants Example of Simplifying Model 20th Century with Mike Wallace, "The Sizzling Planet", 1999. History Channel/CBS News: The big worry: that man's tampering finally has brought the dreaded greenhouse effect. That the hot temperatures may be due to a buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, caused by the burning of fossil fuel, and by the shrinking of the world's forests. Result: a blanket over the planet that keeps in the heat. (Susan Spencer, CBS News) Teaching the Mechanism • Scattered info  clear picture • Opens the door to new information • Lasting knowledge Vs. transient arousal • Causally connects humans to the problem. • No “end runs” (e.g. “3 out of 4”) Teaching the Mechanism (continued) • Evokes Americans' self-image as responsible managers and problemsolvers. • Practical problem Vs. Just for environmentalists • Emphasizes prevention – Vs. adaptation and survival A Winning Combination Simplifying Model “Responsible Manager” “Solutions Available” • Triggers Level 1 ideas like Practicality, Responsibility, Can-do, Know-how etc. Summary of Recommendations 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. The message needs to attach to responsibility and planning. Bring global warming down to earth; make it manageable. Give the public a simplifying model of global warming. Use reasonable, not rhetorical, tone to engage listening. Use frame elements strategically, especially tone and numbers. Give solutions high priority. Be strategic in the order of presentation. What We Know About Tone • Rhetorical tone polarizes people • Reasonable tone engages people in problem-solving • Extreme statements and partisan attacks turn people off, conjure the “just politics” frame • Environmentalists lose credibility and identity when attacking Impact of Tone on Policy Support 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 reasonable rhetorical endorsmt energy café 4P Responding to Objections (from the Bush administration) • “We need more science.” – Easy trap for confused public – Clever way to deflect scientific voices – Use health analogies (“lump in the chest”) etc. • “Adaptation rather than prevention.” – Another trap for scientists – Derails “solutions” thinking – Frame as irresponsible management Elements of the Frame: Numbers • Once a framework of interpretation is established or primed, it will trump numbers. • Most people cannot judge the size or import of numbers; they need cues. • Numbers often fail to create “pictures in our heads” or to trigger cultural models. Facts Alone Do Not Reframe When the facts don’t fit the frame, the facts get rejected, not the frame. • When confronted with a news story that presented positive indicators, focus group participants: - rejected the story as untrue - rejected the motive (forced community service) - said the progress was not good enough • Statistics (both positive and negative) had no effect on perceptions of teens in the priming survey, though negative statistics were more familiar. Elements of the Frame: Numbers • Give the meaning first, and back it up with data. Name/frame the problem, then describe its size. • Relate the number to something people already understand. • Use social math (break down numbers by time, by place, etc). Social Math “The correlation between violent media and aggression is larger than the effect that wearing a condom has on decreasing the risk of HIV,…larger than the correlation between exposure to lead and decreased IQ levels in kids,…larger than the effects of exposure to asbestos, larger than the effect of secondhand smoke on cancer.” Brad Bushman, Professor of Psychology, Iowa State University Using Numbers Bad Example “In the past two decades, energy-efficiency standards kept 53 million tons of heat-trapping gases out of the air each year.” Good Example Using technology that exists today, we could increase the average mpg of today‟s auto fleet to 40 mpg – the equivalent of taking 44 million cars off the road Give Solutions High Priority: • “Understanding the solution” and “understanding the problem” go together. • Demonstrate the existence and efficacy of short-term solutions. • Highlight technological solutions and the policies that advance them. • Avoid consumer sacrifice or behavior change. Correct for Framing Deficits: Surface Solutions “Wind, solar and other renewable energy sources are untapped sources with virtually unlimited potential. They are abundant, clean, safe and reliable, and they are available now to solve our energy needs and clean up the environment. Yet we continue to invest in old, dirty technologies like coal, and get only 2% of our power from renewable sources. It‟s time to invest in bringing these solutions to scale.” The order of presentation matters as much as the messages within. • • • • • • • • Set up a level one frame of responsibility and planning. Start with environment before global warming. Introduce simplifying model early to establish agency. Identify the causes as man-made. Highlight existing solutions and future innovation. Incorporate policy solutions such as 4 pollutant, etc. Include consequences, but without being too extreme. Call to action – appeal to people as problem solvers; provide a lens for how they evaluate leaders; challenge leaders to demonstrate vision through innovative solutions, research and development. Communications Is Storytelling and the Order of the Presentation Matters “Finding some familiar element causes us to activate the story that is labeled by that familiar element, and we understand the new story as if it were an exemplar of that old element.” “Understanding means finding a story you already know and saying, „Oh yeah, that one.‟” “Once we have found (the) story, we stop processing.” Roger Schank The Translation Process Ways of Thinking • Frames • Facts • Totality of Evidence • Cues in Stories, Symbols • Fast and Frugal • Thoughtful Cognition Deliberation • Metaphors • Conclusions • Simplifying Models • Expert Models • Values • Rational Actor The FrameWorks Institute www.frameworksinstitute.org