Campaign Financing and Election Outcome

Campaign Financing and Election Outcome A study of the correlation between fundraising in the U.S. and popular votes in presidential elections Overview • Project Background – Brainstorming – Federal Election Commission • Election 2008 – Primaries • Republican Candidates • Democratic Candidates • Goals/Objectives • Preliminary Comparison – Election 2000 and 2004 – Relationship Findings – General Election • Total Party Contributions • Electoral College • Conclusions • Limitations and Future Work Background • Election 2008 in the media constantly • First Presidential Election in 12 years with no previous ties to the White House • General Public knowledge about Campaign Financing • Federal Election Commission Federal Election Commission • Ensures that candidates and convention committees requesting public funds have satisfied the eligibility requirements. • Reviews submitted contributions • Audits all public funding recipients to ensure that the funds were spent in compliance with the law Presidential Candidates and the Federal Election Commission • Only candidates seeking nomination by a political party for the office of President are eligible to receive primary matching funds • A candidate must establish eligibility by showing broad-based public support: must raise in excess of $5,000 in each of at least 20 states ($100,000). • Although an individual may contribute up to $2,300 to a primary candidate, only a maximum of $250 per individual applies toward the $5,000 threshold in each state. Presidential Candidates must agree to the following: • Limit campaign spending for all primary elections to $10 million (plus a cost-of-living adjustment COLA). This is called the national spending limit. • Limit campaign spending in each state to $200,000 plus COLA, or to a specified amount based on the number of voting age individuals in the state (plus COLA), whichever is greater. • Limit spending from personal funds to $50,000. Goals • Presidential Elections 2000 and 2004 – Show relationship between Campaign Contributions and Popular Vote by state • Presidential Election 2008 – Predict Primary Election using Funds Raised from Quarters 1 and 2 of 2007 – Speculate General Election Results Objectives • Inform average voter about the relationship between presidential campaign funding and political race outcome • Illustrate a relationship between popular votes and campaign funding Election 2000 Election 2000 Election 2004 Election 2004 Republican Candidates 2008 Totals Romney: 30,859,721 Giuliani: 30,590,059 McCain: 20,900,595 Democratic Candidates 2008 Totals Clinton: 47,669,977 Obama: 42,953,612 Edwards: 18,213,607 Democratic Primary Outcome Electoral Votes • Clinton: 284 • Obama: 167 • Edwards: 87 • Considered candidate that rose the most money in each state the winner • The election of delegates to the Democratic National Convention is handled differently in every state – but all consider state population as factor • To account for population, we used the number of electoral votes to determine the primary winner Republican Primary Outcome Electoral Votes • Guiliani: 237 • Romney: 231 • McCain: 70 • Considered candidate that rose the most money in each state the winner •The election of delegates to the Republican National Convention is handled differently in every state – but all consider state population as factor • To account for population, we used the number of electoral votes to determine the primary winner General Election 2008 Comparison of Republican Candidates vs. Democratic Candidates Funds Raised Totals: Democrats: $108,837,196 Republicans: $82,355,375 General Election Outcome Total Projected Electoral Votes: Democrats (Blue): 358/538 = 67% Republicans (Red): 180/538 = 33% What about percentage error from past elections? Remember? States where candidates with more campaign contributions didn’t win the popular vote 2000 – 15 states In 2000, the percentage difference by electoral vote is 26% In 2004, the percentage difference by electoral vote is 14% Average is 20% So, assuming +/- 20% error… Democratic electoral votes: 250 – 466 Republican electoral votes: 36 – 288 Votes required to win election: 270 2004 – 8 states Chance of Clinton victory: 91% Chance of Giuliani victory: 7% Chance of no electoral winner*: 2% * The new House of Representatives votes between the top three candidates to select a president. Conclusions • 2008 Presidential Race – Democratic Party nominee: Hillary Clinton – Republican Party nominee: Rudy Giuliani • Interestingly, neither of these candidates raised the largest amount of money in Q1 and Q2 of 2007 • Winning in highly populated states counts! • In general election and Republican primary, state winner takes all Conclusions 2004 Presidential Election Results by State Population Counts! 2004 Presidential Election Results by Population Cartogram Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/ Conclusions • 44th President of the United States: Hillary Clinton • Why? – Clinton will win Democratic primary due to support in populous states – General election relies heavily on patterns from 2000 and 2004: popular vote in ~80% states went to the candidate whose party raised more money in that state Limitations • Problem: The primary/caucus process varies for each state and party • Solution: Study the primary/caucus process for the 2008 election and develop a more complex formula for determining the winner Limitations • Problem: Our study does not consider the impact of 3rd party and Independent candidates on the general election • Problem: Our study only includes the three front-runners for each party in primary predictions • Solution: Include additional candidates in our study. Ralph Nader won 3% of the popular vote in 2000. Limitations • Problem: Our analysis relies on pattern established by two quarters of fundraising – Presidential primaries will take place after four quarters of fundraising – General election contributions will also include federal matching funds • Solution: Study contributions to 2004 presidential candidates for the first two quarters of 2003 Conclusions • Suggestions for similar projects – Simplify your problem! – Create a map template – Study this subject closer to election, if possible Future Work • Our study does not account for contributions and voting at the county level, only the state level. 2004 Presidential Election Results by State 2004 Presidential Election Results by County Source: http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2004/PurpleAmericaPosterAll50.gif Future Work • Revisit this project in early January 2008 – Fundraising figures for all four quarters of 2007 – Directly before state primaries begin – Calculate federal matching funds for Democratic and Republican nominees Future Work • Use this data to plan a campaign trail • Campaign staffers decide to plan visits to states where races are very close • Our Suggestions: – (W) denotes the candidate currently predicted to win – Democratic Primary • California is very close between Obama and Clinton (W) • Iowa is very close between Obama and Edwards (W) – Republican Primary • Illinois is very close between all candidates. McCain (W) • Florida is very close between Romney and Guiliani (W) Sources • Federal Election Commission (FEC) http://www.fec.gov • United States Geological Survey (USGS) http://www.usgs.gov • Center for Responsive Politics http://www.opensecrets.org • Maps and cartograms of the 2004 US presidential election results (University of Michigan) http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/ • Election 2004 Results http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2004/ Questions? Calculating Likely Election Winner • Clinton – For Clinton to lose, number of electoral votes is between 250 and 269. – Clinton’s possible number of electoral votes according to analysis is between 250 and 466. – Clinton’s chances of losing (269-250)/(466-250) ~ 0.09 (9%) – Conversely, Clinton’s changes of winning = 91% • Giuliani – For Giuliani to win, number of electoral votes is between 270 and 288. – Giuliani’s possible number of electoral votes according to analysis is between 36 and 288. – Giuliani’s chances of winning = (288-270)/(288-36) ~ 0.07 (7%) • Chances of no electoral winner: 100 – Clinton’s chances (91) – Giuliani’s chances (7) = 2%