THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE

THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE Agenda   What is Ukraine? An overview The Orange Revolution and its historical preconditions Who was ruling Ukraine? Politics and economy… Why these elections were so important? What were the main issues of presidential campaign 2004? -   What is going to change in Ukraine? What to take home? – Q&A UKRAINE • The biggest country in the East Central Europe: - territory: 603,5 thousand km2 - population: 47,280,800,000+ people • A multiethnic country: more than 130 nationalities • 24 oblasts + Autonomous Republic of Crimea - exit to 2 seas: Black, Azov - mountains: Carpathians, Crimean - major rivers: Dnipro, Dnistro, Dunay, Prut, Bug, Donets • Neighbors: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary (the EU), Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey (the future EU), Belarus, Russia, Georgia, (the CIS) UKRAINE (continued) Population (thousands of ppl) 53000 52000 51000 50000 49000 48000 47000 46000 45000 44000 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 % UKRAINE (continued) • GDP growth: 12% in 2004 • *Areas of strong specialization: mineral production, oil and energy products, chemical products, mechanical equipment, machines, electrical equipment, transport and road equipment, black metals, textiles, polymeric materials • Main trade partners: CIS, EU, Africa, Asia • FDI: USD 7761,5 mln UKRAINE (continued) Real GDP Growth (1991-2004) 15 10 5 -0,2 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -22,9 -8,7 -9,9 -14,2 -10 -3 -1,9 % 9,2 5,9 5,2 9,3 12 -12,2 Ukrainian History • • • • • • • Kyiv Rus Cossacks’ military state Bohdan Khmelnitskiy’s Hetmanate Ukrainian People’s Republic Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic Ukraine… Have been re-divided among: Lithuania, Poland, Austro-Hungary, Russia, Romania, Czechoslovakia… • Have always been fighting for freedom Elites and elections 1991 – presidential elections: Leonid Kravchuk. CPU apparatchiks + ‘red directorate’ 1994 – presidential elections: Leonid Kuchma ‘Red director’ + business clans 1998 – parliamentary elections: Communist party + ‘red directorate’ Business Groups in Ukraine Industrial Union System Capital Management Donbass Interpipe: Interpipe Pryvat Key personality: Viktor Pinchuk, Kuchma’s son-in-law. Personal wealth: USD1.5 bln. Political representation: Trudova Ukraina, ex-Head of NBU, ex-Minister of Economy Media assets controlled: ICTV, Ukrainian Media-Holding (newspapers, radio stations) Industrial Union of Donbass: Key person: Mr.Taruta. Personal wealth: USD1.2 bln. Political representation: ex-Prime Minister (Viktor Yanukovych), ex-minister of fuel and energy, ex-president’s advisor System Capital Management: Key person: Renat Akhmetov. Personal wealth: USD2.5 bln. Political representation: Regions of Ukraine Media assets controlled: TRC Ukraina, Internet web-sites Pryvat: Key person: Ihor Kolomoyskiy. Personal wealth: USD2.2 bln. Political representation: Trudova Ukraina, ex-head of Presidential Administration (Viktor Medvedchuk), ex-Head of NBU Media assets controlled by Medvedchuk: Inter, 1+1, newspapers, radio stations, Internet web-sites BUSINESS GROUPS IN UKRAINE (continued) STRENGTHS Strong influence on politics through political representation Control over major production areas in Ukraine Access to President Kuchma Control over media assets securing control over public opinion WEAKNESSES  Lack of consolidation (groups compete in business and political influence)  Various extents of dependence on Kuchma  Concentrated allocation (East of Ukraine: Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkov)     Areas of Business Groups’ Competition* System Capital Management Metals Metal Mining Coke Industrial Union of Donbass Metals Metal Mining Coke Interpipe Pryvat Metals Metals Metal Mining Coke Pipes Oblenergos Pipes Ferro alloys Ferro Alloys Oblenergos Machine building Machine building Telecoms Mass Media Telecoms Mass Media Telecoms Elites and elections (continued) March 1999 – the leader of opposition dies in a car crash October 1999 – presidential elections: Leonid Kuchma VS Leonid KUCHMA Petro SYMONENKO (leader of Communists) (= Russian scenario: Yeltsin vs Ziuganov…) Intrusion of Russian political technologists UKRAINE WITHOUT KUCHMA 2000 Vyacheslav Chornovil  Georgiy Gongadze REFERENDUM: Ukraine – a presidential republic? The people said ‘YES’? Falsifications… MELNICHENKO’S TAPES Kuchma was selling missiles to Iraq?  International pressure MASS PROTESTS: KUCHMA’S IMPEACHMENT!? Viktor Yuschenko   Successful banker 1996–1999 - Head of the National Bank of Ukraine: Stopped inflation Introduced Hryvnya Avoided financial crisis of 1998 -  - 2000 – Prime Minister: Achieved positive growth rate of 5.9% Eliminated barters Paid salary and pension debts Pressed the business groups Weaknesses: mildness, tendency to loosing momentum Elites and Elections (continued) 2002 – parliamentary elections: Nasha Ukraina, bloc of Viktor Yuschenko Results of the Parliamentary Elections 2002 25 20 15 10 5 0 23.57 19.98 11.77 7.26 6.87 6.27 Nasha Ukraina For United Ukraine   A SIGNAL FOR THE REGIME! Opposition fails to form a majority Viktor Medvedchuk becomes the Head of Presidential Administration Socialist Party Viktor Yanukovych    - Head of the Donetsk State Administration Head of the Donetsk Oblast Council 2002-2004 - Prime Minister Increased economic growth to 12% Increased salaries and pensions Fought the crop and fuel crises Weaknesses: 2 criminal convictions, close links to unpopular regime and business groups CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM The last attempt of Kuchma to presume power after elections  Constitution of 1996 Prime Minister PARLIAMENT PRESIDENT  Proposed changes (2004) PRIME MINISTER PARLIAMENT President ON THE THRESHOLD OF ELECTIONS 2004   The great possibility of Yuschenko being elected is a real danger for the business groups Business groups unite their resources and influence to support Yanukovych Funds (Renat Akhmetov) + Media (Viktor Pinchuk) + Russian polittechnologists (Viktor Medvedchuk) = growth of Yanukovych’s rating from 4% to 30%  Russia resumes its pressure CAMPAIGN 2004  26 candidates Access to media and resources  - Violations of electoral law: Falsifying signatures Using administrative resource Foreign intrusion (citizens of Russia supporting one of the candidates) Exceeding campaign financial limits Technical candidates…  - Rejected to most of the candidates but one  - Positioning of the major candidates Attempts at murdering the candidates  - Applying political technologies: Playing on differences between East and West of Ukraine Raising pensions and salaries… inflation Preventing Yuschenko from coming to the Eastern regions Creating false images of candidates (Yuschenko - fascist) Busy Prime Minister vs People’s candidate  - - Poisoning of Yuschenko vs Egg scandal of Yanukovych - RESULTS Results of presidential elections 2004 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 46.61 39.26 49.46 51.99 44.2 39.9 Yanuk ovych Yanuk ovych 31.10.2004 21.11.2004 26.12.2004 Yanuk ovych Yuschenko Yuschenko Yuschenko RESULTS OF THE ORANGE REVOLUTION        Yuschenko is the President of Ukraine Ukraine has become famous in all of the world Ukraine is going to be a parliamentary republic Ukraine has declared a course towards democratic reforms Representatives of ex-opposition replaced all of the key authorities The pressure of Russia has decreased Ukraine has cleared its external course: EU WHAT TO TAKE HOME    The Orange Revolution is a result of many years’ evolution of Ukrainian politics and economy The Orange Revolution is the third democratic change of elites in Ukraine The Orange Revolution has reshaped Ukraine’s position in Europe and the CIS FOR MORE INFO www.pravda.com.ua www.bbc.co.uk/ukrainian www.cvk.gov.ua www.ukrstat.gov.ua www.president.gov.ua www.yuschenko.com.ua www.ya2004.com.ua