Comparing Political Activism Worldwide

Comparing Political Activism Worldwide Democratic Phoenix Structure I. II. Theoretical overview: • 1. 2. 3. Civic decline or evolution in political activism? Trends in party membership & civic activism Rise of protest and cause-oriented politics Generational patterns of activism Causes & consequences of trends? Evidence III. Conclusions • Democratic Phoenix (Cambridge University Press August 2002) Introduction: – – 1. 2. The Rise and Fall of Political Activism? Theories of Political Activism I. The Puzzle of Electoral Turnout – – – – – – – – 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Mapping Turnout Do Institutions Matter? Who Votes? Mapping Party Activism Who Joins? Social Capital & Civic Society Traditional Mobilizing Agencies: Trade Unions & Churches New Social Movements, the Internet & Protest Politics II: Political Parties III: Civic Activism Conclusions: – 11. Conclusions: From Loyalties to Choice? The civic decline thesis Half-empty ballot box? (Wattenberg) Desertion of party members? (Dalton, Mair) Partisan dealignment? Hemorrhaging union rolls? Emptying church pews? Anemic voluntary organizations? (Putnam) Rising political cynicism? (Nye et al) Model of change Figure 1: Typology of the evolution of political action REPERTOIRES Citizen-oriented repertoires, including voting, party work and contact activity Cause-oriented repertoires, including consumer politics, demonstrations and petitions Traditional voluntary associations, including churches, unions and political parties AGENCIES Older generation New social movements and advocacy networks, including environmental and humanitarian organizations Younger generation If participation is changing… Causes? – Long-term processes of societal modernization? • Growing educational & civic skills • Decline of deferential loyalty to hierarchical institutions • Gradual ‘bottom up’ generational shift in ‘critical citizens’ – Result of changing institutions of representative democracy? • • • • ‘Top down’ explanations Globalization, decentralization & role of nation state Growth of cross-cutting issues not accommodated by parties Rational response to context of choices and channels of influence If participation is changing… Consequences? 1. Social inequality? » » Greater civic skills, more demanding acts? Who participates by class, income, education, gender, ethnicity 2. Quality of deliberative democracy » » » » F-to-f interaction, on-going co-operation, social trust? Rise of more demanding citizens? Stability and violence? Fragmentation of policy process? 3. For governance? Evidence: civic activism Trends official party members Table 6.1 Phoenix Party membership as a % of the electorate, late-1990s 1.6 4.0 1.9 % Change (i) - 3.48 - 5.61 - 2.20 Change in Numbers of Members France Italy US 1978-1999 1980-1998 1980-1998 - 1,122,128 - 2,091,887 - 853,156 Change in Numbers as Percentage of Original Membership - 64.59 - 51.54 - 50.39 Norway Czech Rep Finland 1980-1997 1993-1999 1980-1998 7.3 3.9 9.6 - 8.04 - 3.10 - 6.09 - 218,891 - 225,200 - 206,646 - 47.49 - 41.32 - 34.03 Netherlands Austria Switzerland Sweden Denmark Ireland Belgium Germany Hungary Portugal Slovakia Greece Spain ALL ABOVE 1980-2000 1980-1999 1977-1997 1980-1998 1980-1998 1980-1998 1980-1999 1980-1999 1990-1999 1980-2000 1994-2000 1980-1998 1980-2000 2.5 17.7 6.4 - 1.78 - 10.82 - 4.28 - 2.87 - 2.16 - 1.86 - 2.42 - 1.59 + 0.04 - 0.29 + 0.82 + 3.58 + 2.22 - 136,459 - 446,209 - 118,800 - 142,533 - 70,385 - 27,856 - 136,382 - 174,967 + 8,300 + 50,381 + 37,777 + 375,000 + 808,705 - 31.67 - 30.21 - 28.85 - 28.05 - 25.52 - 24.47 - 22.10 - 8.95 + 5.02 + 17.01 + 29.63 + 166.67 + 250.73 5.5 5.2 3.1 6.5 2.9 2.1 3.9 4.1 6.8 3.4 Party membership Decline in many Western nations Broader erosion of partisanship Yet substantial cross-national variations Does erosion of membership matter? – For party in government? – For party finance and staff? – For party or campaign activism? Campaign Activism, US 1952-2000 25 20 15 10 5 0 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 Money 1992 1996 2000 Meeting Party Work Button US Turnout US Turnout 1932-2000 (Presidential Vote/VAP) 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 % Source: U.S.Census Bureau 1932-1996. US Turnout: 59.5% in 2000, 63.8% in 2004 (Vote/VAP) Source: US Census Bureau www.census.gov Trends in Gross Union Density Source: Bernhard Ebbinghaus and Jelle Visser. 2000. Trade Unions in Western Europe since 1945. London: Macmillan. CD-Rom. Note: Net density I (Total union membership as a share of the gainfully employed wage and salary earners.) Austria 80 Belgium Denmark R-Squar e = 0.43 Finland R-Squar e = 0.89 Net density 60 R-Squar e = 0.67 40 R-Squar e = 0.31 20 France 80 Germ any It aly Neth Net density 60 40 R-Squar e = 0.13 R-Squar e = 0.41 R-Squar e = 0.72 R-Squar e = 0.77 20 Norw ay 80 Swit z UK Net density 60 R-Squar e = 0.53 40 R-Squar e = 0.02 20 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 R-Squar e = 0.93 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Year Year Union Density, 1995 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 B elarus Ro mania Luxemb o urg B elg ium A ust ria Czech Rep ub lic Ireland B razil Canad a M exico It aly Eg yp t Germany A ust ralia Taiwan Po land Est o nia Unit ed King d o m Ghana M aurit ius A rg ent ina Guyana Nicarag ua New Zealand Israel Philip p ines Namib ia Turkey Seneg al Net herland s So ut h A f rica Swit zerland Swaziland Po rt ug al Jap an Tanzania Do minican Rep ub lic Nig eria Cap e V erd e Kenya B o livia Chile Greece V enezuela Camero o n Panama Canal Zo ne Zimb ab we M ali Sing ap o re Co st a Rica Co t e D' Ivo ire Unit ed St at es Zamb ia Urug uay B o t swana Sp ain Ecuad o r Tunisia Parag uay Ko rea, Rep ub lic Of Peru El Salvad o r Erit rea Co lo mb ia France Pakist an Ind ia M o ro cco Ho nd uras Guat emala B ang lad esh Et hio p ia Ug and a Thailand M aurit ania Ind o nesia Guinea Gab o n Finland M alt a China Cyp rus Hung ary Slo vakia No rway B ulg aria Swed en A zerb aijan Russian Fed erat io n Iceland Denmark Union Density: Table 9.1 Interpretation No simple decline in union membership across Western Europe Substantial cross-national variations worldwide Institutional explanations not secular trends Secularization Trends % Church attendance Eurobarometer 1970-2000 Belgium 80.0 Den France GB church 60.0 40.0 20.0 Germ any 80.0 Greece Ire It aly church 60.0 40.0 20.0 Lux 80.0 Neth NI Port ugal church 60.0 40.0 20.0 Spain 80.0 church 60.0 40.0 20.0 1970 1980 1990 year Interpretation? Evidence of secularization in W.Europe Development is linked to secularization Political implications? Experience of Political Activism Source: WVS mid-1990s All % ‘Have done’ Discuss politics Voting turnout 70.0 64.5 Civic activism Signed a petition * 62.4 28.5 Attended demonstrations* Joined in boycott * 15.7 8.9 Active union member Joined unofficial strike * 5.4 5.0 Active party member Occupied buildings * 4.6 1.6 Rise of Protest Politics % ‘Have done’ in 8 postindustrial societies: WVS Mid-1970s Signed petition Demonstrated Consumer Boycott Unofficial Strike Occupied buildings 32 9 5 2 1 1980s 46 14 8 3 2 1990 mid-1990s 54 18 11 4 2 60 17 15 4 2 Source: World Values Surveys Protest & democracy Protest & econ development Generational shifts? Age differences? Age differences? – If so three possible causes: • Generational effects, • Period effects, and • Lifecycle effects. European Social Survey 2002 15 European nations (22) Type of acts Citizen-oriented repertoires – – – – – – – – – – Voted Contacted a politician or official Donated money to political organization Party member Worked for a political party Bought products for political reasons Signed a petition Boycotted certain products Lawfully demonstrated Took part in illegal protest Cause-oriented repertoires Age profile of activists All Younger (i) 18-29 MiddleAged (ii) 30-59 Older (iii) 60+ Age Gap (i-iii) Citizen-oriented repertoires Voted Contacted a politician or official Donated money to political organization Party member Worked for a political party 72 16 8 6 5 50 12 7 3 4 79 19 9 6 5 84 14 8 8 5 -34 -2 -1 -4 -1 Cause-oriented repertoires Bought products for political reasons Signed a petition 24 22 24 23 28 24 17 15 7 8 Boycotted certain products Lawfully demonstrated 15 6 14 9 17 6 11 3 3 6 Took part in illegal protest 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.8 Citizen-oriented acts 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 .8 .6 .4 .2 1920-1929 Major Region Nordic Europe Northern Europe Mediterranean Europe Postcommunist Europe 1940-1949 1960-1969 1980-1985 1950-1959 1970-1979 1930-1939 Cohort Cases weighted by DWEIGHT Citizen-oriented acts by cohort Cze ch Republic Finland Gre ece Hungary Citize n-oriented act 1.5 1.0 0.5 Ir eland Is rael Nethe rlands Nor way Citize n-oriented act 1.5 1.0 0.5 Poland Por tugal Slovenia Spain Citize n-oriented act 1.5 1.0 0.5 Swe den Switze rland Unit ed Kingdom Citize n-oriented act 1.5 1.0 0.5 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Cohor t Cohor t Cohor t Mean age of activists 55 52 50 50 46 45 40 40 40 44 44 44 47 47 48 35 d n ts ts ts lly ey rty an io te en uc uc tit ici ga on ra pa d r lit nd m st od pe ro ille fo d pr po a po d on tp d s te d a d m te h s g ke na Re tte ne ed De te or ou ig ct co Do ro LL B S W y ta P A Bo on C ed ot V rty Pa m em r be Note: Whether the respondent did these acts during the previous 12-months Source: The European Social Survey, 2002 Cause–oriented acts 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 .8 .6 .4 .2 0.0 1920-1929 Major Region Nordic Europe Northern Europe Mediterranean Europe Postcommunist Europe 1940-1949 1960-1969 1980-1985 1950-1959 1970-1979 1930-1939 Cohort Cases weighted by DWEIGHT Cze ch Republic Finland Gre ece Hungary Cause-oriented act 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Ir eland Is rael Nethe rlands Nor way 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Poland Por tugal Slovenia Spain 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Swe den Switze rland United Kingdom Cause-oriented act 1.5 Causeoriented acts by cohort Cause-oriented act Cause-oriented act 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Cohort Cohort Cohort 35 42 43 46 46 46 47 47 48 49 49 40 45 50 55 Ed t uc AL at L io R na es l po nd en ts U En ni on vi ro nm en ta l H ob Pr by of es si on H al um an i ta ria n C on su m er C hu rc h O th er Pa rt y So ci al cl ub Sp or Age of members 49 52 54 Membership in associations 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Major Region Nordic Europe 1.0 Northern Europe .5 0.0 1920-1929 Mediterranean Europe Postcommunist Europe 1940-1949 1960-1969 1980-1985 1950-1959 1970-1979 1930-1939 Cohort Cases weighted by DWEIGHT Conclusions From the politics of loyalties to the politics of choice? – Citizen oriented action peak in middle age – Cause-oriented acts most common among young people – Associations: Mixed pattern – Young people not more engaged in new social movements Discussion Questions 1. Does this reflect your own experience? 2. If so, what are the causes? – – – – Globalization reducing the power of the nationstate? Rise of more ‘critical citizens’? For democracy For governments & policy process 3. And what are the consequences?