Vietnam Mining Sector Analysis

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                                     © Vietnam Mining Sector Analysis
                                                  Edition 1.0
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                                                               Table of Contents

1.   Analyst View ........................................................................................................................................7
2.   Industry Structure ...............................................................................................................................9
3.   Industry Overview and Outlook by 2014 .........................................................................................11
  3.1     Production....................................................................................................................................11
  3.2     Consumption................................................................................................................................14
     3.2.1     Power...................................................................................................................................15
     3.2.2     Cement ................................................................................................................................17
     3.2.3     Construction Material...........................................................................................................19
     3.2.4     Living Fuels..........................................................................................................................21
4. Key Industry Drivers and Challenges..............................................................................................22
  4.1     Increasing Power Sector Dependability ......................................................................................22
  4.2     Environmental Concerns .............................................................................................................24
  4.3     Overseas Import Contracts..........................................................................................................25
5. Coal Import Prospects Analysis ......................................................................................................26
6. Coal Bed Methane Potentials ...........................................................................................................29
7. Regulatory Environment Analysis...................................................................................................31
8. Renewable - The Way Ahead............................................................................................................32
  8.1     Wind Energy ................................................................................................................................32
  8.2     Photovoltaic .................................................................................................................................34
  8.3     Nuclear Energy ............................................................................................................................37
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List of Figures:

Figure 3-1: Coal Production (Million Tons), 2008-2010 ..............................................................................12
Figure 3-2: Forecast for Coal Production (Million Tons), 2011-2014 ..........................................................13
Figure 3-3: Coal Consumption (Million Tons), 2008-2010 ..........................................................................14
Figure 3-4: Coal Demand in Power Sector (Million Tons), 2010-2014........................................................16
Figure 3-5: Coal Demand in Cement Sector (Million Tons), 2010-2014 .....................................................18
Figure 3-6: Coal Demand in Construction Material Sector (Million Tons), 2010-2014................................20
Figure 3-7: Coal Demand in Living Fuels Sector (Million Tons), 2010-2014 ..............................................21
Figure 4-1: Electricity by Sectors (%), 2010 & 2015....................................................................................22
Figure 4-2: CO2 Emissions (Million Metric Tons), 2000, 2004 & 2007........................................................24
Figure 5-1: Prospect Coal Imports (Million Metric Tons) 2012, 2015 & 2020 .............................................27
Figure 5-2: Coal Exports (Million Tons), 2008-2010....................................................................................28
Figure 8-1: Wind Power Installations (MW), 2008 & 2009 ..........................................................................33




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List of Tables:

Table 2-1: Coal Reserves at Quang Ninh Mines (‘000 Tons) .......................................................................9
Table 2-2: Current Mines Infrastructure ......................................................................................................10
Table 3-1: Electricity Generation Costs by Fuel Type (Cents/KWhr) ..........................................................15
Table 8-1: Wind Power Potentials by Wind Classification (MW).................................................................33
Table 8-2: PV Application Developments....................................................................................................34
Table 8-3: International PV Projects and Investments (US$) by 2010........................................................36




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DOCUMENT INFO
Description: Vietnam relies on coal for its energy requirements and there has been a significant rise in coal demand over the recent years. Dynamically growing electricity demand and industrial coal requirements, especially from the cement and construction material industries, have infused coal sector developments. As the country’s hydropower resources have nearly been fully exploited and natural gas resources are limited, the country will have to rely on coal-run thermal power plants in coming years. According to our research “Vietnam Mining Sector Analysis”, the economic downturn had moderate effects on the coal industry. The manufacturing industry operated at reduced levels and drastically dented coal demand. In 2010, the economy has rebounded and the manufacturing industry regained its exponential growth momentum. Hence, the coal consumption has once again rejuvenated and registered around 27% year-on-year growth. The power sector is anticipated to be the most dominant coal consumer during 2010-2014 with its coal demand to grow at a CAGR of more than 41% during the same period. At the production level, developments have given appropriate response to demand till now. Domestic productions have comfortably been surpassing local demand and the country was exporting huge amount of coal. However, limited coal reserves will create a wide gap in demand-supply mechanism in future. In fact, regulators have already proposed coal imports starting from the year 2012. The condition will become more severe if authorities continued to overlook new reserves discovery and exploitations. Our report “Vietnam Mining Sector Analysis” is an outcome of extensive research and conceptual analysis of the Vietnamese coal industry potential. It facilitates information/statistics on coal reserves, production, consumption, import prospects and exports development historical, current and future projected trends. Besides, the report provides coal demand forecasts for prominent sectors, including
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