Indian Power Sector Analysis

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                                      © Indian Power Sector Analysis
                                                  Edition 2.0
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                                                                 Table of Content

1.   Analyst View ........................................................................................................................................8
2.   Focus on India ...................................................................................................................................10
  2.1     Growing Economy .......................................................................................................................10
  2.2     Regulatory Reforms.....................................................................................................................12
  2.3     Demand-Supply Situation ............................................................................................................13
  2.4     Rural Electrification Program.......................................................................................................14
     2.4.1      Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidhyutikaran Yojana (RGGVY) ....................................................15
     2.4.2      Rural Electrification Projects under RGGVY .......................................................................16
3. India Power - Unexplored Opportunities.........................................................................................19
  3.1     Transmission Schemes ...............................................................................................................19
  3.2     Thermal Power Development ......................................................................................................21
  3.3     Hydro Power Development..........................................................................................................22
  3.4     Growth Potential by Consumer Sector ........................................................................................24
  3.5     Ultra Mega Projects .....................................................................................................................27
  3.6     Capacity Addition.........................................................................................................................28
  3.7     Vertical Industry ...........................................................................................................................29
  3.8     Shortfalls ......................................................................................................................................30
  3.9     Renewable Energy Sources ........................................................................................................31
  3.10 Merchant Power Plants ...............................................................................................................33
4. Power Sector - India vs Developing Countries ..............................................................................34
  4.1     Investment Perspective ...............................................................................................................37
  4.2     Regulatory Environment ..............................................................................................................40
5. Industry Performance .......................................................................................................................41
  5.1     Installed Capacities of Power Utilities..........................................................................................44
     5.1.1      Maharashtra.........................................................................................................................46
     5.1.2      Tamil Nadu ..........................................................................................................................47
     5.1.3      Gujarat .................................................................................................................................48
     5.1.4      Andhra Pradesh...................................................................................................................49
     5.1.5      Karnataka ............................................................................................................................50
  5.2     Power Transmission ....................................................................................................................51
  5.3     Power Distribution........................................................................................................................53
  5.4     Power Consumption ....................................................................................................................54
6. Potential for Private Players in Power Generation ........................................................................55
7. Analysis by Non Conventional Energy Sources ............................................................................57
  7.1     Nuclear Power .............................................................................................................................59
  7.2     Wind Power .................................................................................................................................61
  7.3     Solar Power .................................................................................................................................65
     7.3.1      Rajasthan.............................................................................................................................68
     7.3.2      Gujarat .................................................................................................................................70
     7.3.3      Tamil Nadu ..........................................................................................................................72
     7.3.4      Maharashtra.........................................................................................................................73
     7.3.5      West Bengal ........................................................................................................................75
8. Challenges .........................................................................................................................................77
  8.1     Irrational & Unremunerative Tariff Structure................................................................................77
  8.2     Unbalanced Growth & Shortage..................................................................................................78
  8.3     Payment Risks.............................................................................................................................79
  8.4     Reform Challenges ......................................................................................................................80
  8.5     Price Hike ....................................................................................................................................81
9. Power Sector Regulatory Framework .............................................................................................82
10.    Key Players ....................................................................................................................................85
  10.1 Power Generation........................................................................................................................85
     10.1.1     National Thermal Power Corporation Limited .....................................................................85
     10.1.2     Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited........................................................................87
     10.1.3     National Hydroelectric Power Corporation ..........................................................................88


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      10.1.4 North Eastern Electric Power Corporation Limited..............................................................89
    10.2 Power Transmission ....................................................................................................................90
      10.2.1 Damodar Valley Corporation ...............................................................................................90
      10.2.2 Power Grid Corporation of India ..........................................................................................91
    10.3 Power Distribution........................................................................................................................92
      10.3.1 Reliance Infrastructure Limited............................................................................................92
      10.3.2 Tata Power ..........................................................................................................................93




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List of Figures:

Figure 2-1: Global - Largest Economies in terms of GDP PPP (Trillion US$), 2009 ..................................10
Figure 2-2: Comparative Gross Domestic Electricity Consumption (‘000 GWh), 2009 & 2014 ..................11
Figure 3-1: Hydro Power Capacity (‘000 MW), 2007-2009, 2012 & 2017...................................................22
Figure 4-1: Global - Annual Growth in Electricity Generation by Region (%), 2004 to 2030 ......................35
Figure 4-2: Cumulative Investment in Energy Infrastructure (%), 2006 to 2030 .........................................39
Figure 5-1: Installed Power Generation Capacity (MW), 2006-07, 2009-10 & 2013-14 .............................41
Figure 5-2: Installed Power Generation Capacity by Source (%), 2010 .....................................................43
Figure 7-1: Cumulative Grid Interactive Renewable Power by Type (%), 2010..........................................57
Figure 7-2: Cumulative Solar PV Production by Segment (%), 2010..........................................................65
Figure 7-3: Cumulative Solar Power Plant Capacity (MW), 2008 & 2009...................................................66
Figure 7-4: Installed Solar Thermal Capacity (MW), 2001-2007.................................................................67




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List of Tables:

Table 2-1: Power Demand Availability Situation (2010-11).........................................................................13
Table 2-2: Number of Villages Electrified under RGGVY (2010) ................................................................16
Table 2-3: Target and Achievement of Bharat Nirman Rural Electrification (2009-10 & 2010-11) .............17
Table 3-1: Cumulative Growth in Transmission ..........................................................................................19
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Table 3-2: Projected Capacity Additions by Source (MW), 11 Plan..........................................................21
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Table 3-3: Thermal Power Capacity Addition (MW), 12 Plan ....................................................................21
Table 3-4: Small Hydro Power Capacity of Top States (MW), 2009 ...........................................................23
Table 3-5: Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2009-10 to 2011-12 ..........................................................24
Table 3-6: Power Consumption by Region (MW), 2009-10 to 2011-12 ......................................................24
Table 3-7: Power Consumption in Domestic Sector by Region (MW), 2009-10 to 2011-12.......................25
Table 3-8: Power Consumption in Commercial Sector by Region (MW), 2009-10 to 2011-12...................25
Table 3-9: Power Consumption in Irrigation by Region (MW), 2009-10 to 2011-12 ...................................25
Table 3-10: Power Consumption in Industrial Sector by Region (MW), 2009-10 to 2011-12 .....................26
Table 3-11: Power Consumption in Other Sectors by Region (MW), 2009-10 to 2011-12 .........................26
Table 3-12: Forecast for Electricity Generation & Power Capacity (2011-12, 2016-17, 2021-22, 2026-27 &
2031-32) ......................................................................................................................................................28
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Table 3-13: Requirement of Construction Equipment for Hydro Project (11 Plan) ...................................29
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Table 3-14: Grid Interactive Renewable Energy (MW), 11 Plan ...............................................................31
Table 3-15: Renewable Energy Potential by Source (MW), 2009 to 2032 .................................................32
Table 4-1: Global - Electricity Sector Investment Outlook (Billion US$), 2001 to 2030 ..............................37
Table 5-1: Installed Power Generation Capacity by Region (MW), 2010 ...................................................42
Table 5-2: Installed Capacity of Power Stations by Region (MW), 2010 ....................................................44
Table 5-3: Maharashtra - Installed Capacities of Power Utilities (MW), 2010.............................................46
Table 5-4: Tamil Nadu - Installed Capacities of Power Utilities (MW), 2010 ..............................................47
Table 5-5: Gujarat - Installed Capacities of Power Utilities (MW), 2010 .....................................................48
Table 5-6: Andhra Pradesh - Installed Capacities of Power Utilities (MW), 2010.......................................49
Table 5-7: Karnataka - Installed Capacities of Power Utilities (MW), 2010 ................................................50
Table 5-8: Power Transmission Capacity by Region (2009) .......................................................................51
Table 6-1: States with Highest Power Deficit (2010)...................................................................................55
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Table 6-2: States likely to be Surplus i
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: Electricity is one of the most vital infrastructure inputs for economic development of a country. There is a strong demand for electricity in India and it is steadily growing with the country’s economic growth and rising consumerism. The Indian electricity market today offers one of the highest growth potential for private players. Government reforms, e.g. distribution network Reforms Program, would be the key factor driving the power sector. Reforms such as The Electricity Act and National Electricity Policy will give impetus to the Indian power sector. According to our new research report "Indian Power Sector Analysis”, there is a huge demand for power in some Indian states due to rapid urbanization and industrialization. Besides, opportunities for private players are increasing with high energy shortage and government support in the form of incentives to set up power plants. We have found that the number of merchant power plants will increase in the years to come with state governments inviting private players to invest in the power sector e.g. Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, etc. Based on the study of the Indian power sector, we have discovered that the total installed capacity will add around 45000 MW by 2013-14. However, demand is much higher than supply with deficit is projected to be more than 12% during 2010-11. We have also found that renewable energy creates huge opportunities for power generators as the commitment to generate clean energy and environmental obligations have become top priority for most of the nations around the world. However, coal based power will remain the dominant source for energy in India. The report has also revealed that un-conventional energy sources such as nuclear, wind and solar will fulfill a large chunk of India’s energy need in coming years. Many states are formulating exclusive policies for renewable energies in order to promote and develop these energy sources. Our report focuses on the growing power sector
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