Indian Power Sector Analysis by RNCOS

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                                      © Indian Power Sector Analysis
                                                  Edition 2.0
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                                                                 Table of Content

1.   Analyst View ........................................................................................................................................8
2.   Focus on India ...................................................................................................................................10
  2.1     Growing Economy .......................................................................................................................10
  2.2     Regulatory Reforms.....................................................................................................................12
  2.3     Demand-Supply Situation ............................................................................................................13
  2.4     Rural Electrification Program.......................................................................................................14
     2.4.1      Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidhyutikaran Yojana (RGGVY) ....................................................15
     2.4.2      Rural Electrification Projects under RGGVY .......................................................................16
3. India Power - Unexplored Opportunities.........................................................................................19
  3.1     Transmission Schemes ...............................................................................................................19
  3.2     Thermal Power Development ......................................................................................................21
  3.3     Hydro Power Development..........................................................................................................22
  3.4     Growth Potential by Consumer Sector ........................................................................................24
  3.5     Ultra Mega Projects .....................................................................................................................27
  3.6     Capacity Addition.........................................................................................................................28
  3.7     Vertical Industry ...........................................................................................................................29
  3.8     Shortfalls ......................................................................................................................................30
  3.9     Renewable Energy Sources ........................................................................................................31
  3.10 Merchant Power Plants ...............................................................................................................33
4. Power Sector - India vs Developing Countries ..............................................................................34
  4.1     Investment Perspective ...............................................................................................................37
  4.2     Regulatory Environment ..............................................................................................................40
5. Industry Performance .......................................................................................................................41
  5.1     Installed Capacities of Power Utilities..........................................................................................44
     5.1.1      Maharashtra.........................................................................................................................46
     5.1.2      Tamil Nadu ..........................................................................................................................47
     5.1.3      Gujarat .................................................................................................................................48
     5.1.4      Andhra Pradesh...................................................................................................................49
     5.1.5      Karnataka ............................................................................................................................50
  5.2     Power Transmission ....................................................................................................................51
  5.3     Power Distribution........................................................................................................................53
  5.4     Power Consumption ....................................................................................................................54
6. Potential for Private Players in Power Generation ........................................................................55
7. Analysis by Non Conventional Energy Sources ............................................................................57
  7.1     Nuclear Power .............................................................................................................................59
  7.2     Wind Power .................................................................................................................................61
  7.3     Solar Power .................................................................................................................................65
     7.3.1      Rajasthan.............................................................................................................................68
     7.3.2      Gujarat .................................................................................................................................70
     7.3.3      Tamil Nadu ..........................................................................................................................72
     7.3.4      Maharashtra.........................................................................................................................73
     7.3.5      West Bengal ........................................................................................................................75
8. Challenges .........................................................................................................................................77
  8.1     Irrational & Unremunerative Tariff Structure................................................................................77
  8.2     Unbalanced Growth & Shortage..................................................................................................78
  8.3     Payment Risks.............................................................................................................................79
  8.4     Reform Challenges ......................................................................................................................80
  8.5     Price Hike ....................................................................................................................................81
9. Power Sector Regulatory Framework .............................................................................................82
10.    Key Players ....................................................................................................................................85
  10.1 Power Generation........................................................................................................................85
     10.1.1     National Thermal Power Corporation Limited .....................................................................85
     10.1.2     Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited........................................................................87
     10.1.3     National Hydroelectric Power Corporation ..........................................................................88


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      10.1.4 North Eastern Electric Power Corporation Limited..............................................................89
    10.2 Power Transmission ....................................................................................................................90
      10.2.1 Damodar Valley Corporation ...............................................................................................90
      10.2.2 Power Grid Corporation of India ..........................................................................................91
    10.3 Power Distribution........................................................................................................................92
      10.3.1 Reliance Infrastructure Limited............................................................................................92
      10.3.2 Tata Power ..........................................................................................................................93




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List of Figures:

Figure 2-1: Global - Largest Economies in terms of GDP PPP (Trillion US$), 2009 ..................................10
Figure 2-2: Comparative Gross Domestic Electricity Consumption (‘000 GWh), 2009 & 2014 ..................11
Figure 3-1: Hydro Power Capacity (‘000 MW), 2007-2009, 2012 & 2017...................................................22
Figure 4-1: Global - Annual Growth in Electricity Generation by Region (%), 2004 to 2030 ......................35
Figure 4-2: Cumulative Investment in Energy Infrastructure (%), 2006 to 2030 .........................................39
Figure 5-1: Installed Power Generation Capacity (MW), 2006-07, 2009-10 & 2013-14 .............................41
Figure 5-2: Installed Power Generation Capacity by Source (%), 2010 .....................................................43
Figure 7-1: Cumulative Grid Interactive Renewable Power by Type (%), 2010..........................................57
Figure 7-2: Cumulative Solar PV Production by Segment (%), 2010..........................................................65
Figure 7-3: Cumulative Solar Power Plant Capacity (MW), 2008 & 2009...................................................66
Figure 7-4: Installed Solar Thermal Capacity (MW), 2001-2007.................................................................67




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List of Tables:

Table 2-1: Power Demand Availability Situation (2010-11).........................................................................13
Table 2-2: Number of Villages Electrified under RGGVY (2010) ................................................................16
Table 2-3: Target and Achievement of Bharat Nirman Rural Electrification (2009-10 & 2010-11) .............17
Table 3-1: Cumulative Growth in Transmission ..........................................................................................19
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Table 3-2: Projected Capacity Additions by Source (MW), 11 Plan..........................................................21
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Table 3-3: Thermal Power Capacity Addition (MW), 12 Plan ....................................................................21
Table 3-4: Small Hydro Power Capacity of Top States (MW), 2009 ...........................................................23
Table 3-5: Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2009-10 to 2011-12 ..........................................................24
Table 3-6: Power Consumption by Region (MW), 2009-10 to 2011-12 ......................................................24
Table 3-7: Power Consumption in Domestic Sector by Region (MW), 2009-10 to 2011-12.......................25
Table 3-8: Power Consumption in Commercial Sector by Region (MW), 2009-10 to 2011-12...................25
Table 3-9: Power Consumption in Irrigation by Region (MW), 2009-10 to 2011-12 ...................................25
Table 3-10: Power Consumption in Industrial Sector by Region (MW), 2009-10 to 2011-12 .....................26
Table 3-11: Power Consumption in Other Sectors by Region (MW), 2009-10 to 2011-12 .........................26
Table 3-12: Forecast for Electricity Generation & Power Capacity (2011-12, 2016-17, 2021-22, 2026-27 &
2031-32) ......................................................................................................................................................28
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Table 3-13: Requirement of Construction Equipment for Hydro Project (11 Plan) ...................................29
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Table 3-14: Grid Interactive Renewable Energy (MW), 11 Plan ...............................................................31
Table 3-15: Renewable Energy Potential by Source (MW), 2009 to 2032 .................................................32
Table 4-1: Global - Electricity Sector Investment Outlook (Billion US$), 2001 to 2030 ..............................37
Table 5-1: Installed Power Generation Capacity by Region (MW), 2010 ...................................................42
Table 5-2: Installed Capacity of Power Stations by Region (MW), 2010 ....................................................44
Table 5-3: Maharashtra - Installed Capacities of Power Utilities (MW), 2010.............................................46
Table 5-4: Tamil Nadu - Installed Capacities of Power Utilities (MW), 2010 ..............................................47
Table 5-5: Gujarat - Installed Capacities of Power Utilities (MW), 2010 .....................................................48
Table 5-6: Andhra Pradesh - Installed Capacities of Power Utilities (MW), 2010.......................................49
Table 5-7: Karnataka - Installed Capacities of Power Utilities (MW), 2010 ................................................50
Table 5-8: Power Transmission Capacity by Region (2009) .......................................................................51
Table 6-1: States with Highest Power Deficit (2010)...................................................................................55
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Table 6-2: States likely to be Surplus i
								
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