08_0108 QBE Powerpoint Template by walterray

VIEWS: 9 PAGES: 29

									QBE LMI Residential Property Market
Overview
October 2008
Recent Events


Shift in world economic outlook – higher cost of funds.
But sharp decline in interest rates locally – recent 1% fall in cash rate in
October 2008.
First Home Owner’s Grant
> $14,000 for established
> $21,000 new

Offsets in other sectors of the economy:
> Lower $AU;
> Increased exports;
> Boost to dwelling construction.




                                                          2
              G D P G ro w th F o re c a s ts (2 0 0 5 /2 0 0 6 P ric e s )
                                                                            F o re c a s ts
Year Ended June                 2004 2005 2006 2007        2008 2009 2010 2011
P riva te C o n s u m p tio n      5 .4   4 .4 2 .6 4 .0      3 .9 2 .1 2 .8 4 .5
P riva te In ve s tm e n t         8 .1   5 .1 8 .7 5 .4      8 .3 4 .3 1 .2 7 .2
P u b lic C o n s u m p tio n      3 .9   3 .8 2 .5 2 .9      3 .4 2 .8 2 .1 3 .3
P u b lic In ve s tm e n t         2 .5   9 .3 9 .3 8 .3    1 1 .0 3 .8 1 .0 6 .5
GNE                                6 .4   4 .7 3 .8 4 .4      5 .4 2 .3 2 .4 5 .3
E x p o rts                        2 .1   3 .1 2 .2 3 .7      4 .1 8 .4 7 .2 7 .1
Im p o rts                       1 3 .0 1 2 .1 7 .2 8 .9    1 2 .2 5 .9 2 .5 9 .6
GDP                                4 .0   2 .8 3 .0 3 .3      3 .7 2 .6 3 .3 4 .6
                                                              S o u rc e : A B S D a ta , B IS S h ra p n e l




                                                                   3
        P riva te In ve s tm e n t G ro w th F o re c a s ts (2 0 0 5 /2 0 0 6 P ric e s )
                                                                                                              F o re c a s ts
Year Ended June                                         2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
T o ta l D w e llin g s                                   3 .1 -0 .8 -4 .3   2 .4 1 .5  4 .1   8 .5 1 1 .3
R e a l E s ta te T ra n s fe r                          -0 .7 -1 6 .6 2 .3 -0 .9 0 .4 -6 .5 1 7 .0 1 3 .5
R e s id e n tia l a n d P ro p e rty - S u b to ta l    2 .2    -4 .4    -3 .0     1 .7     1 .3        2 .0        1 0 .0         1 1 .7
N e w P la n t a n d E q u ip m e n t                   1 6 .2   1 5 .2   1 5 .1    3 .4    1 1 .7       5 .2          -3 .5           9 .5
N e w N o n -D w e llin g C o n s tru c tio n            6 .8     9 .0    1 9 .9   1 2 .4   1 0 .7       4 .7          -2 .8         -1 .0
N e w B u s in e s s In ve s tm e n t -
                                                        1 2 .7   1 2 .0   1 5 .8    7 .3    1 1 .7       5 .3          -2 .5           5 .0
S u b to ta l

N e w P riva te In ve s tm e n t - S u b to ta l         8 .1     5 .1     8 .7     5 .4     8 .3        4 .3           1 .2           7 .2
                                                                                                S o u rc e : A B S D a ta , B IS S h ra p n e l




                                                                                                4
                          In te re s t R a te s
      P e rc e n t                                                             F o re c a s t
18

17

16

15

14

13

12               H o u s in g
11            V a ria b le R a te
10                                                                  9 .4 5
                                 C a s h R a te
 9
                                                                   8 .1
 8                                                                                    7 .8
                                                                     7 .3      8 .1          7 .7
 7                                                               6 .3
 6                                                                                           5 .8

 5                                                                              5 .5 5 .5
                                                                        4 .5
                                                                                  3 .8
 4
                                                                                      3 .1
 3                                                                                            2 .9

 2
                                                                     2 .1
 1

 0                                       C .P .I.
-1

-2
     90   92         94   96     98      00      02     04      06        08          10
                                                                                                     5
 Q u a rte r E n d e d J u n e        S o u rc e : R B A , A B S d a ta , B IS S h ra p n e l
              H o m e L o a n A ffo rd a b ility
P ro p o rtio n o f M o n th ly E a rn in g s a s R e p a ym e n t
                                                                             F o re c a s t
         90


         80
                        S yd n e y

         70
                                                                             65
                                                                      60
         60                                                                     56
                                                                        57                55
                              M e lb o u rn e                                        54
                                                                      49        50

         50                                                                       49 49
                                                                                           48
                                                                             55 47 48
                                                                        45

         40


         35



         30




         25         B ris b a n e



         20
              88   90    92   94   96   98   00     02      04     06      08     10

          Year Ended June               S o u rc e : B IS S h ra p n e l, A B S d a ta
                                                                                                6
                H o m e L o a n A ffo rd a b ility
P ro p o rtio n o f M o n th ly E a rn in g s a s R e p a ym e n t
                                                                        F o re c a s t

                                                                        52
                                                                              50
      50                                                         49
                                                                            46


      45
                                                                                 43
                                                                                      43
                                                                         44
                                                                              43 43
      40



                                                                  39
      35



                          P e rth
      30




      25




                A d e la id e
      20




           88   90   92   94   96   98    00     02     04     06      08     10
                                                                                           7
        Year Ended June                  S o u rc e : B IS S h ra p n e l, A B S d a ta
            L o a n A p p ro va ls fo r O w n e r-O c c u p ie d D w e llin g s (% C h a n g e )
                                          N e w D w e llin g s                             E s ta b lis h e d D w e llin g s

                            2 0 0 4 /0 5 2 0 0 5 /0 6 2 0 0 6 /0 7 2 0 0 7 /0 8 2 0 0 4 /0 5 2 0 0 5 /0 6 2 0 0 6 /0 7 2 0 0 7 /0 8

N e w S o u th W a le s        -1 1             9            3           -6         -1 0              13         10                   -2
V ic to ria                       0             6            4           -4            6               7          8                     0
Q u e e n s la n d             -1 1           10           25            -2           -6              13         14                   -8
S o u th A u s tra lia           -5             8          13            -4            6               5          6                   -7
W e s te rn A u s tra lia         7           14          -1 2         -1 6          13               16        -1 2                  -9
T a s m a n ia                  13             -5           -1            0         -1 1               9         11                     2
N o rth e rn T e rrito ry       46            15          -2 8         -1 2          38               24        -2 4                -1 1
A .C .T .                      -1 4             8          14          -1 3         -1 9              13         31                   -3
A u s tra lia                    -4             9            5           -6           -1              12          7                   -4
                                                                                                                       S o u rc e : A B S D a ta




                                                                                                  8
                     L o a n A p p ro va ls fo r O w n e r-O c c u p ie d D w e llin g s (% C h a n g e )
                                                                          T o ta l D w e llin g s
                                                                                                                                    J u l-A u g
                                     J u n q rt 0 7   S e p q tr 0 7   D e c q rt 0 7   M a r q rt 0 8       J u n q tr 0 8
                                                                                                                                         08
         N e w S o u th W a le s               8               6               10                   -3              -2 0                   -2 6
         V ic to ria                         10                5               10                    1              -1 8                   -2 3
         Q u e e n s la n d                  15               10                 9             -1 2                 -3 2                   -4 1
         S o u th A u s tra lia                2              -4                 7                  -9              -2 0                   -2 5
         W e s te rn A u s tra lia          -1 5             -1 0                1                  -5              -2 7                   -3 1
         T a s m a n ia                      10                3               14                   10              -1 9                   -2 8
         N o rth e rn T e rrito ry          -2 7             -1 6                0             -1 7                 -1 3                   -2 8
         A .C .T .                           35               13                 4                  -8              -2 5                   -2 4
         A u s tra lia                         6               3                 8                  -5              -2 3                   -3 0
D a ta                                                                                                                        S o u rc e : A B S D a ta




                                                                                                         9
                               N u m b e r o f L o a n s to F irs t H o m e B u ye rs
                                    A v g 1 9 9 7 /9 8     2 0 0 4 /0 5    2 0 0 5 /0 6    2 0 0 6 /0 7    2 0 0 7 /0 8    J u l- A u g 0 8
                                     to 2 0 0 3 /0 4                                                                       Ann % var
N e w S o u th W a le s                      3 1 ,9 9 7       2 7 ,7 3 4      3 6 ,4 9 9      3 8 ,9 8 6      3 8 ,4 8 0                -1 4
V ic to ria                                  2 8 ,3 4 6       2 8 ,5 3 2      3 3 ,2 5 5      3 3 ,0 7 1      3 4 ,0 8 9                -1 6
Q u e e n s la n d                           2 2 ,9 1 0       2 0 ,1 3 0      2 6 ,9 5 3      3 1 ,3 2 4      2 7 ,3 6 1                -4 1
S o u th A u s tra lia                         7 ,2 6 0         6 ,6 1 2        7 ,9 1 2        8 ,4 4 3        8 ,3 0 9                    0
W e s te rn A u s tra lia                    1 5 ,1 0 8       1 6 ,3 2 8      1 7 ,7 4 6      1 3 ,7 8 9      1 6 ,4 4 5                -1 4
T a s m a n ia                                 2 ,0 4 8         1 ,6 8 1        2 ,2 2 0        2 ,0 7 3        2 ,1 4 1                  20
N o rth e rn T e rrito ry                         989           1 ,4 8 5        1 ,9 1 2        1 ,1 1 9          930                       7
A u s t. C a p ita l T e rrito ry              1 ,7 7 6         1 ,1 6 2        1 ,4 9 8        1 ,7 9 2        1 ,3 9 4                -2 0
A u s tra lia                               1 1 0 ,4 3 3    1 0 3 ,6 6 4    1 2 7 ,9 9 5    1 3 0 ,5 9 7    1 2 9 ,1 4 9                -1 9
                                                                                                                     S o u rc e : A B S D a ta




                                                                                                      10
    V a lu e o f In ve s tm e n t L o a n s fo r th e P u rc h a s e o f P ro p e rty fo r R e n t/R e s a le
                              J u n q rt 0 7       S e p q tr 0 7       D e c q rt 0 7       M a r q rt 0 8        J u n q tr 0 8
                             ($ m )      % Var    ($ m )      % Var    ($ m )      % Var    ($ m )      % Var    ($ m )      % Var
N e w S o u th W a le s      7 ,4 7 2     10      6 ,2 3 1      9      5 ,6 7 6      6      4 ,8 5 0    -1 2     5 ,1 1 5      -3 2
V ic to ria                  4 ,1 7 3     26      4 ,0 2 8     28      4 ,4 4 1     49      3 ,7 1 7     22      3 ,9 2 9        -6
Q u e e n s la n d           4 ,7 9 5     39      4 ,5 3 3     45      4 ,4 1 1     25      3 ,8 0 5     -6      3 ,6 5 1      -2 4
S o u th A u s tra lia       1 ,2 0 2     32      1 ,2 1 2     45      1 ,1 9 7     41      1 ,0 3 5     12      1 ,0 8 0      -1 0
W e s te rn A u s tra lia    2 ,9 2 9     -3      2 ,5 9 1     -4      2 ,5 2 7     10      1 ,9 9 0    -1 4     2 ,2 1 2      -2 4
T a s m a n ia                  166       33         170       40         146       11         135        7         147        -1 2
N o rth e rn T e rrito ry       145       25         125       23         116      -1 2        116      -1 4        117        -1 9
A.C .T .                        334       32         288       40         286       44         249       19         247        -2 6
Au s tra lia                2 1 ,2 3 3    18     1 9 ,1 9 7    20     1 8 ,8 2 2    21     1 5 ,9 2 5    -3     1 6 ,5 1 8     -2 2
                                                                                                                S o u rc e : A B S D a ta




                                                                                                 11
       N e t O v e rs e a s M ig ra tio n
                                                                       F o re c a s t
      Th o u s a n d s


225



200



175



150



125



100



 75



 50



 25



  0
      88   90     92     94   96   98    00     02     04     06    08      10
                                                                                         12
  Year Ended June                       S o u rc e : B IS S h ra p n e l, A B S d a ta
        N e t O v e rs e a s M ig ra tio n
                                                           F o re c a s t
       Th o u s a n d s
75

            N e w S o u th W a le s
50




25


                          V ic to ria

                                        W e s te rn
10                                      A u s tra lia
7 .5


  5                   Q u e e n s la n d



2 .5                           S o u th A u s tra lia




  1
       90    92     94    96    98      00    02      04     06      08      10
                                                                                         13
 Year Ended June                        S o u rc e : B IS S h ra p n e l, A B S d a ta
        N e t In te rs ta te M ig ra tio n
       Th o u s a n d s                                                   F o re c a s t
50


                                 Q u e e n s la n d
40



30



20


               W e s te rn
10             A u s tra lia              T a s m a n ia


  0


                                     S o u th A u s tra lia
-1 0



-2 0
                          V ic to ria

-3 0
                          N e w S o u th W a le s

-4 0

       90   92      94    96    98      00    02      04      06     08       10
                                                                                           14
  Year Ended June                       S o u rc e : B IS S h ra p n e l, A B S d a ta
        N e t P o p u la tio n In c re a s e
       Thousands                                                    F o re c a s t
110


100

                 N e w S o u th W a le s
 90

            Q u e e n s la n d
 80


 70


 60


 50


 40
                                 V ic to ria
 30

                            W e s te rn
 20
                            A u s tra lia
 10
                  S o u th A u s tra lia


  0
                      T a s m a n ia
-1 0
       88   90   92    94   96   98     00     02     04    06     08     10
                                                                                        15
 Year Ended June                       S o u rc e : B IS S h ra p n e l, A B S d a ta
                                                                      U n d e rlyin g D e m a n d                                              D w e llin g
                                                                            A n n u a l A ve ra g e                                  C o m m e n c e m e n ts
                                                                                 (th o u s a n d s )                                       (th o u s a n d s )
                                                      2 0 0 1 /0 2 -                    2 0 0 6 /0 7 -         2 0 0 8 /0 9 -
                                                        2 0 0 5 /0 6                      2 0 0 7 /0 8          2 0 1 2 /1 3                      2 0 0 7 /0 8
N e w S o u th W a le s                                    4 1 .4                            4 2 .6               5 0 .1                             3 0 .2
V ic to ria                                                4 2 .2                            4 1 .9               4 6 .1                             4 2 .0
Q u e e n s la n d                                         3 9 .2                            4 0 .8               4 5 .2                             4 2 .6
S o u th A u s tra lia                                      9 .7                             1 0 .5               1 2 .0                             1 2 .0
W e s te rn A u s tra lia                                  1 9 .5                            2 3 .9               2 5 .0                             2 1 .6
T a s m a n ia                                              2 .6                               2 .2                2 .2                               2 .9
N o rth e rn T e rrito ry                                   1 .4                               1 .7                1 .7                               1 .1
A .C .T .                                                   2 .3                               2 .7                2 .4                               2 .4
A u s tra lia                                             1 5 8 .3                          1 6 6 .2             1 8 4 .9                           1 5 4 .6
f = fo re c a s t. N B : A u s tra lia m a y n o t e q u a l s u m o f th e s ta te s d u e to ro u n d in g                    S o u rc e : B IS S h ra p n e l & A B S d a ta
* In c lu d e s c o n v e rs io n s




                                                                                                                                     16
                               U n d e rlyin g                   D w e llin g S to c k D e fic ie n c y
                            Dem and Annual                                  As at June
                                A v e ra g e                               (T h o u s a n d s )
                             (T h o u s a n d s )
                            2 0 0 8 /0 9 - 2 0 1 2 /1 3   2007        2008         2009            2010           2011
N e w S o u th W a le s                   5 0 .1          1 6 .9       2 9 .4        4 9 .7         6 5 .5          7 1 .7
V ic to ria                               4 6 .1           7 .6        1 0 .8        1 2 .4         1 6 .8          1 4 .5
Q u e e n s la n d                        4 5 .2          1 6 .5       1 6 .2        1 7 .2         1 8 .9          1 4 .0
S o u th A u s tra lia                    1 2 .0           -0 .2        -1 .5         -1 .5          -2 .7          -3 .0
W e s te rn A u s tra lia                 2 5 .0           0 .1         0 .7           3 .1           7 .4            8 .5
T a s m a n ia                              2 .2           -1 .0        -1 .6         -2 .2          -2 .5          -2 .7
N o rth e rn T e rrito ry                   1 .7           -0 .1        0 .4           0 .6           1 .3            1 .1
A .C .T .                                   2 .4           0 .4         0 .5           0 .7           0 .6            0 .5
A u s tra lia                           1 8 4 .9          4 0 .0       5 4 .9        8 0 .2       1 0 5 .4        1 0 4 .6
                                                                                S o u rc e : B IS S h ra p n e l & A B S d a ta




                                                                                     17
                                           R e s id e n tia l re n ta l v a c a n c y ra te s (% )

                            S yd n e y   M e lb o u rn e   B ris b a n e   A d e la id e   P e rth   H o b a rt    C a n b e rra D a rw in
         1992                  3 .0           4 .3             5 .4            5 .4         5 .7       4 .6            3 .4        n /a
         1993                   2 .9          3 .8             6 .0            4 .8         5 .0       6 .1            5 .1            n /a
         1994                   3 .0          3 .1             4 .9            5 .5         4 .7       7 .0            5 .0            n /a
         1995                   1 .3          1 .9             4 .5            5 .2         3 .5       6 .6            4 .4            n /a
         1996                   1 .6          1 .5             4 .0            3 .4         4 .9       5 .6            3 .4            1 .8


         1997                   2 .3          2 .0             4 .2            2 .6         2 .7       6 .2            4 .3            5 .8
         1998                   2 .6          1 .7             4 .7            1 .9         2 .5       6 .9            2 .9           1 4 .1
         1999                   1 .8          3 .6             5 .4            2 .5         2 .4       8 .3            1 .0           1 4 .1
         2000                   2 .2          3 .5             n /a            4 .5         3 .0       4 .1            2 .3            6 .4
         2001                   3 .3          3 .9             n /a            3 .6         4 .2       2 .0            3 .0            9 .0


         2002                   4 .6          3 .8             4 .1            n /a         4 .5       2 .3            3 .6            5 .0
         2003                   4 .4          3 .9             2 .3            2 .8         4 .5       2 .8            3 .5            7 .1
         2006                   2 .1          1 .7             2 .2            1 .6         1 .9       2 .2            2 .3            2 .4
         2007                   1 .4          1 .4             1 .5            1 .3         2 .1       2 .3            2 .4            1 .2


     2008 M ar                  1 .0          1 .6             2 .2            1 .7         1 .4       2 .3            0 .5            2 .0
    2008 June                   1 .1          1 .0             n /a            1 .5         2 .8       n /a           n /a             n /a
n /a : d a ta n o t a v a ila b le                                                                                        S o u rc e : R .E .I.A .

                                                                                                              18
                      N e w S o u th W a le s
R e s id e n tia l B u ild in g a n d P ro p e rty C y c le
                                                                               F o re c a s t
     700
                                                                                           +5
                                                                                      +1        +9
                                                                             +1 +1
                                                                                                +6
     500                                                                              +1
            R e a l H o u s e P ric e                                        -1 -3
                                                                                   -3
              S y d n e y ($ '0 0 0 )

     300




     200
                                H o u s e P ric e
                               S y d n e y ($ '0 0 0 )
     150




     100
                C o m m e n c e m e n ts
      70
                    ('0 0 0 ) N S W
                   (Y /E Q u a rte r)
                                                                                           +23
      50
                                                                                      +29


                                                                                  +3

      30
                                                                             -9 + 1


           88   90    92     94     96     98      00     02     04     06     08      10            19
       Y /E J u n e        S o u rc e : A B S d a ta , B IS S h ra p n e l & R .E .I.A . d a ta
                                  Q u e e n s la n d
R e s id e n tia l B u ild in g a n d P ro p e rty C y c le
                                                                                   F o re c a s t
     500                                                                                 +9         +8
                                                                                       +1
                                                                               +12
     400                                                                                            +5
                                                                            +12                +6
                                                                                  +8      -2

     300                                                                     +10


     250
                R e a l H o u s e P ric e
     200
                B ris b a n e ($ '0 0 0 )

     150


                                  H o u s e P ric e
     100
                               B ris b a n e ($ '0 0 0 )
      80
      70
                                   C o m m e n c e m e n ts
      60
                                        ('0 0 0 ) Q ld
                                                                                                    +7
      50                              (Y /E Q u a rte r)
                                                                                +6           +14
      40                                                                                -2
                                                                              +9


      30

      25

      20                                                                                                 20
           88    90       92     94     96     98     00     02     04     06      08        10
           Y /E J u n e        S o u rc e : A B S d a ta , B IS S h ra p n e l & R .E .I.A . d a ta
                                      V ic to ria
R e s id e n tia l B u ild in g a n d P ro p e rty C y c le

                                                                            F o re c a s t
                                                                                             +8
                                                                                       +5
    500                                                                           +2
                                                                            +9
               R e a l H o u s e P ric e                              +12                     +5
    400                                                                   +4        -2 + 5
               M e lb o u rn e ($ '0 0 0 )
                                                                       +10

    300




    200


    150
                             H o u s e P ric e
                          M e lb o u rn e ($ '0 0 0 )
    100

     80


     60
           C o m m e n c e m e n ts                                                          +10
     50                                                                             +10
                ('0 0 0 ) V IC                                                    +0
                                                                            +9
     40       (Y /E Q u a rte r)
                                                                          -1

     30




     20
                                                                                                      21
          88    90       92   94   96     98     00      02     04     06      08      10
          Y /E J u n e         S o u rc e : A B S d a ta , B IS S h ra p n e l & R .E .I.A . d a ta
                      W e s te rn A u s tra lia
R e s id e n tia l B u ild in g a n d P ro p e rty C y c le
                                                                            F o re c a s t

     500                                                                  -1 + 3 + 2 + 6
                                                                    +13
                                                                        -6 -1 -1 + 3
                                                                      +11
                 R e a l H o u s e P ric e
     300
                    P e rth ($ '0 0 0 )



     150



     100
                                 H o u s e P ric e
                                 P e rth ($ '0 0 0 )
      70


      50        C o m m e n c e m e n ts ('0 0 0 )
                    W e s te rn A u s tra lia
                 (Y e a r E n d e d Q u a rte r)
      30
                                                                                       +10

                                                                       -4            +9
                                                                        -1 1    -4


      15


           88    90    92   94    96    98     00     02     04     06     08     10               22

            Y /E J u n e    S o u rc e : A B S d a ta , B IS S h ra p n e l & R .E .I.A . d a ta
                          S o u th A u s tra lia
R e s id e n tia l B u ild in g a n d P ro p e rty C y c le
                                                                             F o re c a s t
                                                                                   +5
                                                                               +4        +6
                                                                         +17
                                                                        +9             +2 +3
     300                                                                          +0
                R e a l H o u s e P ric e                                +12
                                                                        +7
                 A d e la id e ($ '0 0 0 )

     150


     100
                        H o u s e P ric e
      70
                      A d e la id e ($ '0 0 0 )
      50



      30

                C o m m e n c e m e n ts ('0 0 0 )
                     S o u th A u s tra lia
      15         (Y e a r E n d e d Q u a rte r)                                  +7 +2
                                                                          +5
                                                                        +5
                                                                                          -7
      10


       7


       5
           88    90    92   94     96     98     00     02     04     06     08     10

           Y /E J u n e
                                                                                                   23
                            S o u rc e : A B S d a ta , B IS S h ra p n e l & R .E .I.A . d a ta
                              T a s m a n ia
R e s id e n tia l B u ild in g a n d P ro p e rty C y c le
                                                                                F o re c a s t
                                                                                      +5 +6
       350                                                                +5      +2
                                                                        +12
                                                                                               +3
                                                                           +0       -2 + 1
                                                                         +10
       250
                  R e a l H o u s e P ric e
                    H o b a rt ($ '0 0 0 )
       150



       100
                                    H o u s e P ric e
                                   H o b a rt ($ '0 0 0 )
        70


        50
                                   C o m m e n c e m e n ts
                                     ('0 0 ) T a s m a n ia
        35                            (Y /E Q u a rte r)
                                                                          +1
                                                                       +12
                                                                                               +4
        25
                                                                                    -9    -6




        15



        10
             88   90     92   94    96     98     00      02     04     06     08        10          24
          Y /E J u n e        S o u rc e : A B S d a ta , B IS S h ra p n e l & R .E .I.A . d a ta
                  N o rth e rn T e rrito ry
R e s id e n tia l B u ild in g a n d P ro p e rty C y c le
                                                                      F o re c a s t
                                                                                 +8 +7
                                                                           +8 +2
                                                                        +13          +4
                  R e a l H o u s e P ric e                               + 3 -1
                                                                                 +5

                                                                        +11
      300           D a rw in ($ '0 0 0 )

      200

      150


      100
                  H o u s e P ric e D a rw in
                           ($ '0 0 0 )
       60


                 C o m m e n c e m e n ts ('0 0 )
                    N o rth e rn T e rrito ry
       30
                 (Y e a r E n d e d Q u a rte r)

       20                                                                                    +12


       15                                                                                   +26

                                                                               -8
                                                                          +0           +8
       10



        6
            88   90    92    94     96     98     00     02     04     06      08       10         25
        Y /E J u n e        S o u rc e : A B S d a ta , B IS S h ra p n e l & R .E .I.A . d a ta
      A u s tra lia n C a p ita l T e rrito ry
R e s id e n tia l B u ild in g a n d P ro p e rty C y c le
                                                                             F o re c a s t
                                                                                   +6
                                                                          +3 +2          +7
                                                                       +12
       400                                                                               +4
                                                                           -1 -1 + 2
                                                                        +10
                  R e a l H o u s e P ric e
                  C a n b e rra ($ '0 0 0 )
       250




       150
                                     H o u s e P ric e
       100                             C a n b e rra
                                         ($ '0 0 0 )
        75

              C o m m e n c e m e n ts ('0 0 ) A C T
                       (Y /E Q u a rte r)
        40

                                                                                           +12

                                                                        +26      +9
        25
                                                                                      +0
                                                                            +0


        15



        10
             88   90    92   94     96     98     00     02     04     06     08      10            26
         Y /E J u n e        S o u rc e : A B S d a ta , B IS S h ra p n e l & R .E .I.A . d a ta
Summary

Summary
Rental market tightening, rents accelerating (but
yields still low) – pressure on supply.
Weakening financial and economic environment to
continue to impact on purchaser confidence.
Improved affordability not expected to gain traction
until 2009/10, as economic conditions stabilise.
Affordability to remain constrained, despite recent
reductions in interest rates– price rises to be more
aligned with wages growth.

                                           27
Summary


Forecast cumulative median house price growth
between 2008 and 2011


>Sydney      +15%         >Perth            +12%
>Melbourne   +16%         >Hobart           +16%
>Brisbane    +19%         >Darwin           +11%
>Adelaide    +16%         >Canberra         +19%




                                       28
Summary – risk factors


Deterioration of world economies and its impact on
Australia.
Duration of the credit squeeze and the cost of funds.
Larger fall in interest rates.
Magnitude of decline in commodity prices and
subsequent impact on mining investment.




                                        29

								
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