Solar Thermal Power Market Forecast to 2020 - Utilities to Drive Future Developments in the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Market by GBIResearch

VIEWS: 404 PAGES: 68

More Info
									                Solar Thermal Power Market Forecast to 2020 - Utilities to
                   Drive Future Developments in the Concentrated Solar
                                   Power (CSP) Market
             Reference Code: GBIAE0012MR                                                                                                                                                     Publication Date: JUN 2010

          Solar thermal planned                Green stimulus: A Crucial Support to the Renewable Energy Industry
          projects coming online
          from 2010 onwards are                Developed nations are focusing on global carbon emissions as part of attempts to meet the twin
          anticipated to accelerate            goals of energy security and sustainability. In order to achieve this twin target of security and
          installed capacity growth            sustainability, there is an acute need to produce energy from sustainable energy sources such as
          rate to 46% per annum                wind, solar, geothermal and biomass.
          during 2010 to 2020                  The global financial crisis has provided opportunities for governments to move forward in altering
                                               the present energy generation mix. The financial stimulus packages announced by the major
                                               developed nations have allotted almost $512 billion to green energy. On the basis of the stimulus
                                               packages announced before 31st March 2009, it can be inferred that Asian nations, especially
                                               China, have contributed the most to the green energy projects. South Korea has allotted the
                                               highest share of the stimulus package to the green energy, followed by China.
                                               Global Solar Thermal Market - Impressive Growth in Installations from 2010 Onward
                                               The global solar thermal market was concentrated in the US until Spain joined in 2007. Since 2007,
                                               the sector has broadened its geographical reach and Australia and Morocco have also started
                                               operating solar thermal plants. Because of its high energy efficiency, other nations are showing
                                               interest and planning projects for 2010 onwards.
                                               The global solar thermal cumulative installed capacity grew from 354 Megawatts (MW) in 2001 to
                                               697 MW in 2009 at a CAGR of 9%. However, the planned projects that will come online from 2010
                                               onwards are expected to accelerate the CAGR to 46% during 2010 to 2020. The global solar
                                               thermal power capacity is expected grow from 2,715 MW in 2010 to reach 122,252 MW.
                                               The annual installation of capacity is expected to increase significantly in the coming decade,
                                               primarily due to significant capacity additions in the US and Spain. Additionally, many other
                                               countries including Australia, China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Algeria and Italy are coming
                                               up with the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) projects.

                                                 Global Solar Thermal Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity, MW, 2001–2020

                                                                                       140000


                                                                                       120000


                                                                                       100000
                                                             Installed Capacity (MW)




                                                                                        80000


                                                                                        60000


                                                                                        40000


                                                                                        20000


                                                                                            0
                                                                                                                                            2010F

                                                                                                                                                    2011F

                                                                                                                                                            2012F

                                                                                                                                                                    2013F

                                                                                                                                                                            2014F

                                                                                                                                                                                    2015F

                                                                                                                                                                                            2016F

                                                                                                                                                                                                    2017F

                                                                                                                                                                                                            2018F

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2019F

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2020F
                                                                                                2001

                                                                                                       2005

                                                                                                              2006

                                                                                                                       2007

                                                                                                                              2008

                                                                                                                                     2009




                                                                                                                     Annual Installations (MW)              Global Cumulative Capacity (MW)


                                                 Source: GBI Research, F: Forecast




Solar Thermal Power Market Forecast to 2020 - Utilities to                                                                                                                           GBIAE0012MR/Published JUN 2010
Drive Future Developments in the Concentrated Solar
Power (CSP) Market                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Page 1
                                                                                                                         © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
                                               The US Solar Thermal Market - Large Scale Projects to Boost Installed Capacity
                                               The US solar thermal market grew at a CAGR of 2% from 2001 to 2009. However, the government
                                               encouragement for the sector is expected to lift the CAGR to astonishing levels of 46% for the
                                               period 2010 to 2020. The rate of installations is expected to pick up pace as high capacity plants
                                               come online during the period.
                                               California is expected to lead the US in terms of CSP installations with almost nine projects with a
                                               capacity of more than 500 MW expected to come online during the period including one project with
                                               a capacity of 1,000 MW. The sector’s growth will continue to be robust until 2020 as the RPS
                                               (Renewable Portfolio Standards) targets for the states will continue encouraging solar thermal
                                               power generation.
                                               Utility-Owned Projects - A Strategic Driver of CSP Installations
                                               The utilities in the US are on a new endeavor that will act as a catalyst for solar thermal
                                               installations. The utilities are considering the option of establishing their own solar thermal facilities
                                               with grid connectivity in order to benefits from Investment Tax Credits (ITCs) and hedge against
                                               volatile energy prices. Solar thermal technology is more efficient and has greater potential to
                                               generate base load power than solar PV systems, provided it has sufficient back up and storage
                                               facilities.
                                               During 2009, installations on the utility side of the meter grew more than two and half time from the
                                               previous year. In 2008, the utilities side of meter was around 18 MW, which grew to 65 MW in
                                               2009. By 2016 an estimated 16 GW of capacity is anticipated to come in service, largely supported
                                               by the large scale installation and extension of Production Tax Credits (PTCs) and ITCs to the solar
                                               sector.
                                               Spanish Solar Thermal Market - Bright Future until 2020 Envisioned
                                               With the strong government backing being given to CSP technology, the installed capacity in Spain
                                               is expected to leap during 2010 to 2020. The country’s CSP installations are expected to grow from
                                               891 MW in 2010 to 44,515 MW in 2020.
                                               In 2010, the installed capacity is expected to increase by more than three and half times as almost
                                               13 projects with a capacity of 50 MW are expected to be operated in the country. By 2011, the
                                               installations are expected to double from the levels of 2010, largely contributed by the installation of
                                               almost 27 plant with a capacity of 50 MW is expected to come online.
                                               Despite the regulatory cap on installations and the registry system in the country, installations are
                                               expected to surge, largely due to favorable feed-in tariffs. In light of the ambitious plans of the
                                               Spanish government to adhere to the EU’s 2020 agenda, the Spanish CSP sector is expected to
                                               have a bright future.
                                               Asia and the Middle East - Future Hot Spots for the CSP Market
                                               The cumulative installation capacity in the hotspot destinations for the solar thermal market is
                                               anticipated to reach nearly 9,000 GWh, representing 7% of the global installed capacity in 2020.
                                               Among the hotspot destinations, the highest share (on a global basis) will be occupied by Australia
                                               (2.7%), the UAE (1.7%), India (1%) and China (0.8%). By 2020, the overall cumulative installed
                                               capacity in these nations is projected to increase at a CAGR of 37% from 2010 to 2020.
                                               With the increase in installations, the power generation from CSP technology in the emerging
                                               destinations is expected to grow at a CAGR of 42% during 2010 to 2020. The power generation in
                                               2020 is expected to reach 35,096 GWh in these nations, up from 1,035 MW in 2010.




Solar Thermal Power Market Forecast to 2020 - Utilities to                                                            GBIAE0012MR/Published JUN 2010
Drive Future Developments in the Concentrated Solar
Power (CSP) Market                                                                                                                                 Page 2
                                                                                    © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
                                               1 Table of Contents
                                               1  Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ 3
                                                  1.1    List of Tables..................................................................................................................... 5
                                                  1.2    List of Figures ................................................................................................................... 6
                                               2 Introduction.................................................................................................................................. 7
                                                  2.1    Global Carbon Emission, Overview .................................................................................. 7
                                                  2.2    Green Stimulus: A Crucial Support to the Renewable Energy Industry ............................ 8
                                               3 Solar Thermal Power - An introduction to the Technology ........................................................ 10
                                                  3.1    Parabolic Trough System................................................................................................ 10
                                                  3.2    Solar Tower System........................................................................................................ 11
                                                  3.3    Parabolic Dish System .................................................................................................... 12
                                                  3.4    Linear Fresnel Reflectors ................................................................................................ 12
                                               4 Global Solar Thermal Market..................................................................................................... 13
                                                  4.1    Overview ......................................................................................................................... 13
                                                  4.2    Global Solar Thermal Market, Installed Capacity, MW, 2001–2020................................ 13
                                                  4.3    Global Solar Thermal Market, Power Generation, MW, 2001–2020 ............................... 16
                                                  4.4    Global Solar Thermal Market, Installed Capacity by Country, 2009................................ 18
                                               5 Key Drivers and Challenges in the Solar Thermal Market ......................................................... 19
                                                  5.1    Key Drivers ..................................................................................................................... 19
                                                     5.1.1      Government Support—a Key Determinant .............................................................. 19
                                                     5.1.2      Renewable Portfolio Standards—a CSP Market Catalyst ....................................... 19
                                                     5.1.3      Financial Support—Will Boost CSP investment....................................................... 19
                                                  5.2    Key Challenges in the Solar Thermal Market.................................................................. 20
                                                     5.2.1      Grid Connectivity - a Serious Concern .................................................................... 20
                                                     5.2.2      Plant Cooling Requirements - Reducing Power Generation .................................... 20
                                               6 Global Solar Thermal Market, Cost Trends ............................................................................... 21
                                                  6.1    Large Scale Installations to Benefit from Economies of Scale ........................................ 21
                                                  6.2    Investment Cost to Decline in the Long-Term ................................................................. 21
                                                  6.3    Aluminum Solar Trough Technology - A Step to Reduce the Solar Field Cost ............... 21
                                                  6.4    Power Generation Cost to Decline.................................................................................. 21
                                               7 The US Solar Thermal Market - 2001 to 2020 ........................................................................... 22
                                                  7.1    Overview ......................................................................................................................... 22
                                                  7.2    Solar Thermal Market, The US, Installed Capacity, MW, 2001–2020 ............................. 22
                                                  7.3    Solar Thermal Market, The US, Power Generation, GWh, 2001–2020........................... 24
                                               8 Solar Thermal Market, The US, Utilities Trends, 2009 .............................................................. 26
                                                  8.1    Utility-Owned Projects - A Strategic Driver of CSP Installations ..................................... 26
                                                  8.2    Utilities Eyeing CSP Plants with Storage Backup ........................................................... 27
                                                  8.3    Building and Upgrading Transmission Lines ................................................................... 27
                                               9 The US Solar Thermal Market - Regulatory Framework............................................................ 28
                                                  9.1    The US Renewable Energy Market - Major Policies ....................................................... 28
                                                     9.1.1      Overview ................................................................................................................. 28
                                                     9.1.2      Federal Financial Incentives .................................................................................... 28
                                                     9.1.3      State Incentive Programs ........................................................................................ 32
                                                  9.2    The US Solar Thermal Power, Regulatory Framework - Major Policies.......................... 34
                                                     9.2.1      The Solar America Initiative (SAI)............................................................................ 34
                                                     9.2.2      Investment Tax Credit ............................................................................................. 34
                                                     9.2.3      The US, Solar Thermal, Financial Incentives, by State ........................................... 34
                                               10 Spain, Solar Thermal Market, 2001–2020 ................................................................................. 40
                                                  10.1 Overview ......................................................................................................................... 40
                                                  10.2 Spain, Solar Thermal Market, Installed Capacity, MW, 2001–2020 ................................ 40
                                                  10.3 Spain, Solar Thermal Market, Power Generation, GWh, 2001–2020.............................. 41
                                                  10.4 Spain, Renewable Market, Regulatory Framework, Major Policies................................. 42
                                                     10.4.1 Overview ................................................................................................................. 42
                                                     10.4.2 Spain, Renewable Market, Major Policies ............................................................... 42


Solar Thermal Power Market Forecast to 2020 - Utilities to                                                                                      GBIAE0012MR/Published JUN 2010
Drive Future Developments in the Concentrated Solar
Power (CSP) Market                                                                                                                                                                     Page 3
                                                                                                  © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
                                                  10.5 Spain, Solar Thermal Market, Regulatory Framework, Major Initiatives ......................... 44
                                                     10.5.1 Overview ................................................................................................................. 44
                                                     10.5.2 Spain, Solar Thermal Market, Major Regulations .................................................... 44
                                                     10.5.3 Implications of the New Subsidy Regime for the Spanish CSP Market ................... 46
                                               11 Future Hotspots for the Solar Thermal Market, 2010 to 2020.................................................... 47
                                                  11.1 Overview ......................................................................................................................... 47
                                                  11.2 Solar Thermal Market, Future Hotspots, Installed Capacity, By Country, MW, 2010 to
                                                         2020................................................................................................................................ 47
                                                  11.3 Solar Thermal Market, Future Hotspots, Power Generation, By Country, GWh, 2010 to
                                                         2020................................................................................................................................ 49
                                               12 Global Solar Thermal Market, Financial Deals, 2009–2010 ...................................................... 51
                                                  12.1 Deals Volume versus Deal Value Analysis, 2009–2010 ................................................. 51
                                                  12.2 Global Solar Thermal Market, Deals by Type, 2009 ....................................................... 52
                                                  12.3 Global Solar Thermal Market, Major Deals, 2009–2010 ................................................. 54
                                                     12.3.1 Enel Completes Rights Offering Of $10 Billion ........................................................ 54
                                                     12.3.2 Solar Trust Of America Announces Project Financing Of $6,000m For Solar Thermal
                                                             Power Plants ........................................................................................................... 56
                                                     12.3.3 Iberdrola Completes Debt Offering Of Five-Year Bonds for $1,894.8m................... 57
                                                     12.3.4 Enel Completes Private Placement Of 5.125% Senior Notes Due 2019 for $1.75
                                                             Billion....................................................................................................................... 58
                                                     12.3.5 Eskom Holdings to Invest $805m in Upington Solar Power Plant, South Africa ...... 59
                                                     12.3.6 Siemens Acquires 63% Stake in Solel Solar Systems............................................. 60
                                                     12.3.7 Siemens Energy Acquires Additional 17% Interest in Archimede Solar Energy ...... 61
                                                     12.3.8 AREVA Acquires 100% Interest In Ausra ................................................................ 62
                                                     12.3.9 BrightSource Energy Announces Project Financing of $1.37 billion for Ivanpah Solar
                                                             Thermal Plant in California, the US ......................................................................... 63
                                                     12.3.10 JSC Atomenergoprom Completes Bond Offering for $1,713.56m ........................... 64
                                               13 Appendix ................................................................................................................................... 65
                                                  13.1 List of Abbreviation ......................................................................................................... 65
                                                  13.2 Methodology ................................................................................................................... 66
                                                     13.2.1 Coverage ................................................................................................................. 66
                                                     13.2.2 Secondary Research ............................................................................................... 67
                                                     13.2.3 Primary Research.................................................................................................... 67
                                                     13.2.4 Expert Panel Validation ........................................................................................... 67
                                                  13.3 Contact Us ...................................................................................................................... 67
                                                  13.4 Disclaimer ....................................................................................................................... 68




Solar Thermal Power Market Forecast to 2020 - Utilities to                                                                                      GBIAE0012MR/Published JUN 2010
Drive Future Developments in the Concentrated Solar
Power (CSP) Market                                                                                                                                                                     Page 4
                                                                                                  © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
                                               1.1     List of Tables
                                               Table 1:      Global CO2 Emissions, Million Metric Tons, 2001–2009 .................................................. 8
                                               Table 2:      Global Green Stimulus Packages by Major Countries, Amount ($ bn) and Share of Total
                                                             Stimulus (%), 2009........................................................................................................... 9
                                               Table 3:      Capital Cost Breakdown of Solar Trough System, Share of Total Cost, %, 2009 .......... 11
                                               Table 4:      Capital Cost Breakdown of Solar Tower System, Share of Total Cost, %, 2009............ 12
                                               Table 5:      Global Solar Thermal Market, Installed Capacity, MW, 2001–2020 ............................... 15
                                               Table 6:      Global Solar Thermal Power Generation, GWh, 2001–2020 ......................................... 17
                                               Table 7:      Global Solar Thermal Market, Share of Installed Capacity by Country, %, 2009 ........... 18
                                               Table 8:      Solar Thermal Market, The US, Installed Capacity, MW, 2001–2020 ............................ 23
                                               Table 9:      Solar Thermal Market, The US, Power Generation, GWh, 2001–2020.......................... 25
                                               Table 10:     Solar Thermal Market, The US, Proposed Cumulative Capacity Additions by Top
                                                             Utilities, MW, 2010 to 2016 ............................................................................................ 26
                                               Table 11:     State Renewables Portfolio Standards and Policy Incentives, The US, 2010 ................ 33
                                               Table 12:     Solar Thermal Market, Spain, Installed Capacity, MW, 2001–2020 ............................... 41
                                               Table 13:     Solar Power Market, Spain, Power Generation, GWh, 2001–2020................................ 42
                                               Table 14:       Solar Market, Spain, Feed-in Tariffs, € / kWh, 2007–2008 .......................................... 45
                                               Table 15:       Solar Market, Spain, New Feed-in Tariff, € / kWh, 2009.............................................. 45
                                               Table 16:       Solar Market, Spain, Tax Rebate, By Year, 2008–2010 .............................................. 46
       
								
To top