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					         US Equities
Scenario and strategy

                 Romina Graiver
 International Equity Investments
            Vienna - March 2006
    Recent developments in the USA (1)
    A few recent indicators could raise concerns about the economy…



     > The first estimate of 4Q GDP growth (1.1%) is below our expectations
         •   It is difficult to assess the respective impact of the various factors
              •   Hurricanes, oil prices, rising interest rates, etc


     > Companies’ quarterly earnings involved a few disappointments…
         •   Negative surprises apparently slightly more numerous than in prior quarters
              •   Competitive pressures and higher costs obviously take a toll
              •   However negative surprises remain below 20% despite stock option bias


     > …but most indicators point to optimism for the foreseeable future
         •   Confidence gives no sign of erosion
              •   ISM, employment, consumer confidence all remain strong
         •   Production, inventories and capacity utilization are rather good


2
3
    D
     ec




               3.0%
                          3.5%
                                   4.0%
                                           4.5%
                                                  5.0%
                                                          5.5%
                                                                   6.0%
                                                                            6.5%
                                                                                    7.0%
       -9




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       20.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       25.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       30.0
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       60.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       65.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       70.0




                                                                                                                               -8.0%
                                                                                                                                       -6.0%
                                                                                                                                                 -4.0%
                                                                                                                                                           -2.0%
                                                                                                                                                                     0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                              2.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                      4.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                             6.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                    8.0%
    Ju 8
      n-                                                                                                           Dec-98                                                                                                                     Dec-98
        9
    D 9
     ec
       -9                                                                                                          Jun-99                                                                                                                     Jun-99
    Ju 9
      n-
        0                                                                                                          Dec-99                                                                                                                     Dec-99
    D 0
     ec
       -0                                                                                                          Jun-00                                                                                                                     Jun-00
    Ju 0
      n-
        0                                                                                                          Dec-00                                                                                                                     Dec-00
    D 1
     ec
       -0                                                                                                          Jun-01                                                                                                                     Jun-01
    Ju 1
      n-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dec-01
        0                                                                                                          Dec-01
    D 2
     ec
       -0                                                                                                          Jun-02                                                                                                                     Jun-02
    Ju 2
      n-
        0                                                                                                          Dec-02                                                                                                                     Dec-02
    D 3




                                                                                               Unemployment Rate
     ec
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ISM Manufacturing (NAPM)




       -0                                                                                                          Jun-03                                                                                                                     Jun-03
    Ju 3
      n-
        0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Dec-03
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Durable Goods Orders ex-transp.


    D 4                                                                                                            Dec-03
     ec
       -0                                                                                                          Jun-04                                                                                                                     Jun-04
    Ju 4
      n-
        0                                                                                                          Dec-04                                                                                                                     Dec-04
    D 5
     ec
       -0
          5                                                                                                        Jun-05                                                                                                                     Jun-05

                                                                                                                   Dec-05                                                                                                                     Dec-05




                                                                                                                   D
                                                                                                                    ec
                                                                                                                       -9




                                                 100.0
                                                 110.0
                                                           120.0
                                                                   130.0
                                                                            140.0
                                                                                    150.0




              60.0
                        70.0
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                                        90.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        20.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 30.0
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    60.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               70.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         80.0




                                                                                                                               -2.0%
                                                                                                                                         -1.5%
                                                                                                                                                   -1.0%
                                                                                                                                                               -0.5%
                                                                                                                                                                            0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                     0.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                             1.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                    1.5%




                                                                                                                   Ju 8
    Dec-98                                                                                                           n-                                                                                                                       Dec-98
                                                                                                                        9
                                                                                                                   D 9
    Jun-99                                                                                                          ec
                                                                                                                       -9                                                                                                                     Jun-99
                                                                                                                   Ju 9
    Dec-99                                                                                                           n-                                                                                                                       Dec-99
                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                   D 0
                                                                                                                    ec
    Jun-00                                                                                                             -0                                                                                                                     Jun-00
                                                                                                                   Ju 0
    Dec-00                                                                                                           n-
                                                                                                                        0                                                                                                                     Dec-00
                                                                                                                   D 1
                                                                                                                    ec
    Jun-01                                                                                                             -0                                                                                                                     Jun-01
                                                                                                                   Ju 1
    Dec-01                                                                                                           n-
                                                                                                                        0                                                                                                                     Dec-01
                                                                                                                   D 2
                                                                                                                    ec
    Jun-02                                                                                                             -0                                                                                                                     Jun-02
                                                                                                                   Ju 2
    Dec-02                                                                                                           n-
                                                                                                                        0                                                                                                                     Dec-02
                                                                                                                   D 3
                                                                                            Consumer Confidence
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Industrial Production
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ISM Non-manufacturing




                                                                                                                    ec
    Jun-03                                                                                                             -0                                                                                                                     Jun-03
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Recent developments in the USA (2)




                                                                                                                   Ju 3
    Dec-03                                                                                                           n-
                                                                                                                        0                                                                                                                     Dec-03
                                                                                                                   D 4
                                                                                                                    ec
    Jun-04                                                                                                             -0                                                                                                                     Jun-04
                                                                                                                   Ju 4
                                                                                                                     n-                                                                                                                       Dec-04
    Dec-04                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                   D 5
                                                                                                                    ec
    Jun-05                                                                                                             -0
                                                                                                                         5                                                                                                                    Jun-05

    Dec-05                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Dec-05
                                                                                                                             -1.5%
                                                                                                                                       -1.0%
                                                                                                                                                  -0.5%
                                                                                                                                                              0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                        0.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                     1.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                             1.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                     2.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        70.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                72.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        74.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 76.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            78.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       80.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 82.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          84.0%




                -2.0%
                               -1.0%
                                          0.0%
                                                   1.0%
                                                            2.0%
                                                                          3.0%
                                                                                    4.0%




    Dec-98                                                                                                         Dec-98                                                                                                                     Dec-98

    Jun-99                                                                                                         Jun-99                                                                                                                      Jun-99
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Most indicators point to optimism for the foreseeable future




    Dec-99                                                                                                         Dec-99                                                                                                                     Dec-99

    Jun-00                                                                                                         Jun-00                                                                                                                      Jun-00
                                                                                                                   Dec-00                                                                                                                     Dec-00
    Dec-00
                                                                                                                   Jun-01                                                                                                                      Jun-01
    Jun-01
                                                                                                                   Dec-01                                                                                                                     Dec-01
    Dec-01
                                                                                                                   Jun-02                                                                                                                      Jun-02
    Jun-02
                                                                                                                   Dec-02                                                                                                                     Dec-02
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Capacity Utilisation




    Dec-02
                                                                                             Personal Spending
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Wholesale Inventories




                                                                                                                   Jun-03                                                                                                                      Jun-03
    Jun-03
                                                                                                                   Dec-03                                                                                                                     Dec-03
    Dec-03
                                                                                                                   Jun-04                                                                                                                      Jun-04
    Jun-04
                                                                                                                   Dec-04                                                                                                                     Dec-04
    Dec-04
                                                                                                                   Jun-05                                                                                                                      Jun-05
    Jun-05
                                                                                                                   Dec-05                                                                                                                     Dec-05
    Dec-05
    The other factors
    Globally OK


     > Energy prices
         •   Impact of past rises largely discounted
         •   Uncertainties about the future mainly due to speculation
              •   seasonal factors should play favorably
              •   investment likely to restore capacity


     > Foreign economies
         •   Signs of a broader-based recovery
              •   Japanese consumption improving gradually
              •   Euro zone also showing improvements

     > Political risk
         •   Continuing tensions worldwide
              •   recent results of Palestinian elections
              •   consequences of cartoons in the European press
              •   Iran’s resumption of nuclear program

4
    Situation in the main sectors
    A global interpretation of our model ’s bottom-up messages

         •   Consumer Discretionary
              •   Contrasted in softlines retail, technical rebound in auto sales
         •   Consumer Staples
              •   Still few opportunities
         •   Energy
              •   Earnings at record highs, but future trends less appealing
         •   Finance
              •   Attractive results in IB, too much risk in lending-related businesses
         •   Healthcare
              •   Focus back on new products in pharmaceuticals, but still prefering services
         •   Industrials
              •   Rail transportation benefiting from fuel-efficiency and strong economy
         •   Technology
              •   Aggressive competition in semi and hardware
         •   Materials
              •   Continuing our selective stance due to cyclical reasons



5
    US Core Growth - Reminder: Investment philosophy
    We believe in research, pragmatism and discipline




                In highly efficient markets, structuring intuition to
                  eliminate emotion, and thus focus on what really
                 makes the difference, is key to achieving superior
                                  performance results

              A consistent approach, involving a reasonable use of
                  computer processing in those areas where it is
                  more effective than human judgment, will help
                               achieve this objective




6
    US Core Growth - Reminder: Process overview
    A structured, disciplined process based on extensive research

                      Fund management                  Model development / upgrade
                            (Short decision cycle)     (Long-term research cycle)

               Investment Universe

           Quantitative processing (Model)

                Buy and Sell lists
         + Portfolio construction guidelines

       Judgmental overlay   (Analyst + Fund Manager)


                                                                         3-5 year cycles
                  Model Portfolio

         Implementation / Execution (Traders)


           Actual Portfolios

7
    US Core Growth - Reminder: Model ’s contribution
    The computer identifies opportunities from a huge mass of fast-changing data

                   Investment Universe (500+ companies selected for their investibility)

       Dynamic Growth            Static Growth family       Valuation family
       family




                                             Weighted combination                Current Portfolio

                                          All stocks in the universe
                                                ranked in order
                                         of fundamental attractiveness
        Revised ranking
       (marginal adjustments
        for earnings surprise)              Implementation rules
                                        • Sell if rank falls in bottom 30%
                                        • Buy from top 5%
                                        • Max. sect. overweight : +10%
            BUY list                    • Hold 50 stocks at all times               SELL list
                                        • Weight all stocks equally
                                        • Recompose monthly
8
    US Core Growth - Investment style
    Adjusting to market environments, but always with a growth bias

                                                          Compared characteristics of a typical share

               Average expected long-term                                                                       15.20
                    earnings growth
                                                                                                  12.52
                      (non-weighted, % p.a.)



           Median revision of EPS consensus                                                                     0.38
               for current calendar year
                                                                                   0.17
           ( %, over last mth, ex- unchanged forecasts)



                 Price / Earnings ratio                                                                       16.34
            based on next 12 month earnings
                                                                                                      14.87
                     (aggregate calculation)




                  Price / Book Value ratio                                                            3.34
                     (aggregate calculation)                                                   2.89




              Average market capitalization                                                               44.32
                     (non-weighted, USD bn)                                            23.90



              Jan. 31, 2006                                             US Core Growth         S&P 500

      Sources: Ex-Share (market data), Compustat (financial data), IBES (earnings forecasts)

9     Calculations : BNP PAM
     US Core Growth - Portfolio characteristics
     Truly active strategy driven by bottom-up stock selection



                                                                       Industry breakdown (Portfolio vs S&P 500)




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                  Jan. 31, 2006                                                                      US Core Growth                           S&P 500




          Sources: Ex-Share (market data), Compustat (financial data), IBES (earnings forecasts)
          Calculations : BNP PAM


10
     US Core Growth Strategy
     April to June 2005: list of portfolio changes

      Sells                                                 Buys

     Harley Davidson                                        Lehman
         (inventories, disappointing guidance for 2005)         (strength in M&A, mkt share gains, diversification )


     Affiliated Computer Services                           Hilton
         (deteriorating sales, profit warning for FY 06)        (pick-up in margins on strong business bookings)
     Tyco                                                   Motorola
         (profit taking as sales and cash flow slow down)       (refocused business and new handset product line)


     Cognos                                                 Cisco Systems
         (impact of slowing number of large deals on EPS)       (strong existing business + new growth areas)
     Morgan Stanley                                         Federated Department Stores
         (tough environment + destabilized management)          (May acquisition combined w/ strong consumption)
     US Steel                                               Invitrogen
         (trends in US demand, high costs in Europe)            (integrating acquisitions into strong product platform)




11
     US Core Growth Strategy
     July to September 2005: list of portfolio changes

      Sells                                                        Buys

     Avaya                                                         Allegheny
            (profit taking on rebound + high risk of bad news)         (improved cost structure, specialization, demand)
     Fedex                                                         Oracle
            (impact of fuel prices on margins)                         (installed base in database segment, sales force)
     Harman International                                          Paychex
            (exposure to EUR/USD exchange rate)                        (3-pillar growth strategy, enhanced staff management)
     Mercury Interactive                                           Target
            (poor guidance + poor visibility on restruct. costs)       (strong image, client focus, strategy to drive traffic)


     Citigroup                                                     W.W.Grainger
            (mgt issues, weak in trading and credit card)              (growth strategy despite conservative bal. sheet mgt)


     Dell                                                          Hewlett Packard
            (slower top line growth + limits to bus. model)            (turnaround strategy proving fruitful under new mgt)




12
     US Core Growth Strategy
     October 2005 to January 2006: list of portfolio changes

      Sells                                                   Buys

     Ivax                                                     Exxon Mobil
            (take-over by non-US company)                         (diversified exposure to oil businesses, refining capa.)
     Apollo Group                                             Medtronic
            (slowing enrolment trends)                            (innovation, new products, competitive landscape)


     Invitrogen                                               Merrill Lynch
            (disappointing sales in bio-production area)          (exposure to Private Banking, product line expansion)


     Wellpoint                                                Abercrombie & Fitch
            (profit taking as slower membership growth)           (brand momentum, pricing power, geog. expansion)


     Bed Bath and Beyond                                      Canadian National Railway
            (competitive pressures and market share issues)       (investments and cost control in favorable economy)




13
     US Core Growth - Portfolio list
     Well-known blue chips and more original ideas identified by the model

          Consumer Discretionary     Healthcare                     Information Technology
            Abercrombie & Fitch        Aetna                           Accenture
            Coach                      Amgen                           Apple Computers
            Federated Dept Stores      Caremark                        Autodesk
            Hilton Hotels              Express Scripts                 Cisco Systems
            Lowe’ s                    Genzyme                         Hewlett Packard
            Nordstrom                  Gilead Sciences                 Intel
            Staples                    Medtronic                       Jabil Circuit
            Target                     United Health Group             Motorola
            Yum! Brands                                                Nvidia
                                     Industrials                       Oracle
          Financials                    Canadian National Railway      Paychex
             Allstate                   Cendant                        Western Digital
             Bank of America            Grainger (W.W.)
             Capital One Financial      JetBlue Airways             Materials
             Everest Re                 L-3 Communication             Allegheny Technologies
             Goldman Sachs              Norfolk Southern              Dow Chemical
             Lehman                     United Technologies
             Merrill Lynch                                          Telecom Services
             Moody’s                 Energy                            Sprint Nextel
                                       BJ Services
                                       Exxon Mobil                  Utilities
                                       XTO Energy                      -

                                     Consumer Staples
                                       -



14          Dec. 31, 2005
     US Core Growth - Institutional track-record (gross of fees)
     Consistent outperformance was achieved in both bull and bear markets (*)

                                                                                                                                                                       PERFORMANCE                                                                              RISK
                                                                                                                                                  Cumula tiv e                                           Annualize d                             Monthly a nnualized
                                                                                                                                     One Mth    Three Mth   Year to      One Year          Two Years Three Years                               Volatility       track ing         Inf o.
                                                                                                                                                             date                                                                                                 error           Ratio
                                                                                                                                     31/12/05   31/10/05    31/12/05      31/01/05          31/01/04             31/01/03     31/12/95
                                                                                                                                     31/01/06   31/01/06    31/01/06      31/01/06          31/01/06             31/01/06     31/01/06                    31/12/95 - 31/01/06

                                 C
           US CORE GROWTH TRA K R ECOR D (v)                                                  GROSS USD                               4.02 %     10.75 %     4.02 %        20.92 %           13.32 %             22.06 %      13.27 %           19.33 %            -                -
           S&P 500 (NR) >12/98>S&P 500 (RI) (v )                                                                                      2.62 %     6.41 %      2.62 %        9.77 %            7.65 %              15.75 %      8.91 %            15.53 %          7.50 %            0.58




                                                   MONTHLY PERFORMANCE                                                                                                                         CUMULATIVE PE RFORMANCE
                                                                                                                                                              400
                     US CO RE GROWT H T RA CK RE CO RD (v)                                                                                                                US CO RE GROWT H T RA CK RE CO RD (v)
                     S &P 500 (NR) >12/ 98>S &P 500 (RI) (v)                                                                                                              S &P 500 (NR) >12/ 98>S &P 500 (RI) (v)
         7.5

                                                                                                                                                              350



         5.0
                                                                                                                                                              300




         2.5
                                                                                                                                                              250




         0.0                                                                                                                                                  200




        -2. 5                                                                                                                                                 150




                                                                                                                                                              100
        -5. 0




                                                                                                                                                               50

                10/ 04   11/ 04   12/ 04   1/05   2/05   3/05   4/05   5/05   6/05   7/05   8/05   9/05   10/ 05   11/ 05   12/ 05    1/06
                                                                                                                                                               '95       '96         '97       '98         '99          '00    '01       '02        '03           '04       '05




        Sources BNP PAM, Standard & Poor’s
        (*) Please read important information at the end of the present document.
        Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. The value of any investment may go up as well as down
15
     US Core Growth - Performance history (gross of fees)
     Consistent outperformance was achieved in both bull and bear markets (*)


                                                           Annual returns - US Core Growth vs S&P 500
                Dec. 31, 2005




                                                 .9




                                                                                                     .6
                                               39




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                               40




                                                   33
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                 Return (%)




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                                                                                               5
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                                                                                             5
                                                                                           -2
                                                                                          6.
                                                                                        -2
                              -40
                                     1996      1997       1998    1999    2000   2001    2002      2003   2004   2005
                              US Core Growth
                              S&P 500 Index (NR)

           Sources BNP PAM, Standard & Poor’s
           (*) Please read important information at the end of the present document.
           Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. The value of any investment may go up as well as down

16
     US Core Growth - Open-ended fund track-record (net of fees)
     Parvest USA: the same strategy packaged as a Luxembourg Sicav (*)


                                                                                                                                                                        PERFORMANCE                                                                                 RISK
                                                                                                                                                   Cumula tiv e                                              Annualize d                             Monthly a nnualized
                                                                                                                                      One Mth    Three Mth   Year to      One Year           Two Years Three Years                                 Volatility       track ing         Inf o.
                                                                                                                                                              date                                                                                                    error           Ratio
                                                                                                                                      30/12/05   31/10/05    30/12/05      31/01/05            30/01/04              31/01/03     29/12/95
                                                                                                                                      31/01/06   31/01/06    31/01/06      31/01/06            31/01/06              31/01/06     31/01/06                    29/12/95 - 31/01/06

             R
           PA VEST USA                                                                             NET USD                             3.83 %     10.09 %     3.83 %        18.38 %             10.66 %              19.61 %      10.42 %           18.19 %            -                -
           S&P 500 (NR) >12/98>S&P 500 (RI) (v )                                                                                       2.62 %     6.41 %      2.62 %        9.77 %              7.64 %               16.25 %      8.90 %            14.99 %          7.15 %            0.21




                                                   MONTHLY PERFORMANCE                                                                                                                             CUMULATIVE PE RFORMANCE

                     P ARVE ST US A                                                                                                                            300         P ARVE ST US A
                     S &P 500 (NR) >12/ 98>S &P 500 (RI) (v)                                                                                                               S &P 500 (NR) >12/ 98>S &P 500 (RI) (v)
         7.5




                                                                                                                                                               250
         5.0




         2.5
                                                                                                                                                               200




         0.0


                                                                                                                                                               150

        -2. 5




                                                                                                                                                               100
        -5. 0




        -7. 5
                10/ 04   11/ 04   12/ 04   1/05   2/05   3/05   4/05   5/05   6/05   7/05   8/05    9/05   10/ 05   11/ 05   12/ 05    1/06
                                                                                                                                                                '95       '96         '97          '98         '99          '00    '01       '02        '03           '04       '05



        Sources BNP PAM, Standard & Poor’s
        (*) Please read important information at the end of the present document.
        Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. The value of any investment may go up as well as down
17

				
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