16 5 Stock Price After Recapitalization
16 5 Stock Price After Recapitalization document sample
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15 - 1 CHAPTER 15 Capital Structure Decisions: The Basics Impact of leverage on returns Business versus financial risk Capital structure theory Perpetual cash flow example Setting the optimal capital structure in practice 15 - 2 Consider Two Hypothetical Firms Firm U Firm L No debt $10,000 of 12% debt $20,000 in assets $20,000 in assets 40% tax rate 40% tax rate Both firms have same operating leverage, business risk, and EBIT of $3,000. They differ only with respect to use of debt. 15 - 3 Impact of Leverage on Returns Firm U Firm L EBIT $3,000 $3,000 Interest 0 1,200 EBT $3,000 $1,800 Taxes (40%) 1 ,200 720 NI $1,800 $1,080 ROE 9.0% 10.8% 15 - 4 Why does leveraging increase return? Total dollar return to investors: U: NI = $1,800. L: NI + Int = $1,080 + $1,200 = $2,280. Difference = $480. Taxes paid: U: $1,200; L: $720. Difference = $480. More EBIT goes to investors in Firm L. Equity $ proportionally lower than NI. 15 - 5 What is business risk? Uncertainty about future operating income (EBIT). Probability Low risk High risk 0 E(EBIT) EBIT Note that business risk focuses on operating income, so it ignores financing effects. 15 - 6 Factors That Influence Business Risk Uncertainty about demand (unit sales). Uncertainty about output prices. Uncertainty about input costs. Product and other types of liability. Degree of operating leverage (DOL). 15 - 7 What is operating leverage, and how does it affect a firm’s business risk? Operating leverage is the use of fixed costs rather than variable costs. The higher the proportion of fixed costs within a firm’s overall cost structure, the greater the operating leverage. (More...) 15 - 8 Higher operating leverage leads to more business risk, because a small sales decline causes a larger profit decline. $ Rev. $ Rev. TC } Profit TC FC FC QBE Sales QBE Sales (More...) 15 - 9 Probability Low operating leverage High operating leverage EBITL EBITH In the typical situation, higher operating leverage leads to higher expected EBIT, but also increases risk. 15 - 10 Business Risk versus Financial Risk Business risk: Uncertainty in future EBIT. Depends on business factors such as competition, operating leverage, etc. Financial risk: Additional business risk concentrated on common stockholders when financial leverage is used. Depends on the amount of debt and preferred stock financing. 15 - 11 From a shareholder’s perspective, how are financial and business risk measured in the stand-alone sense? Stand-alone Business Financial risk = risk + risk . Stand-alone risk = sROE. Business risk = sROE(U). Financial risk = sROE - sROE(U). 15 - 12 Now consider the fact that EBIT is not known with certainty. What is the impact of uncertainty on stockholder profitability and risk for Firm U and Firm L? 15 - 13 Firm U: Unleveraged Economy Bad Avg. Good Prob. 0.25 0.50 0.25 EBIT $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 Interest 0 0 0 EBT $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 Taxes (40%) 800 1,200 1,600 NI $1,200 $1,800 $2,400 15 - 14 Firm L: Leveraged Economy Bad Avg. Good Prob.* 0.25 0.50 0.25 EBIT* $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 Interest 1,200 1,200 1,200 EBT $ 800 $1,800 $2,800 Taxes (40%) 320 720 1,120 NI $ 480 $1,080 $1,680 *Same as for Firm U. 15 - 15 Firm U Bad Avg. Good BEP 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% ROI* 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% ROE 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 8 8 8 TIE Firm L Bad Avg. Good BEP 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% ROI* 8.4% 11.4% 14.4% ROE 4.8% 10.8% 16.8% TIE 1.7x 2.5x 3.3x *ROI = (NI + Interest)/Total financing. 15 - 16 Profitability Measures: U L E(BEP) 15.0% 15.0% E(ROI) 9.0% 11.4% E(ROE) 9.0% 10.8% Risk Measures: sROE 2.12% 4.24% CVROE 0.24 0.39 8 E(TIE) 2.5x 15 - 17 Conclusions Basic earning power = BEP = EBIT/Total assets is unaffected by financial leverage. L has higher expected ROI and ROE because of tax savings. L has much wider ROE (and EPS) swings because of fixed interest charges. Its higher expected return is accompanied by higher risk. (More...) 15 - 18 In a stand-alone risk sense, Firm L’s stockholders see much more risk than Firm U’s. U and L: sROE(U) = 2.12%. U: sROE = 2.12%. L: sROE = 4.24%. L’s financial risk is sROE - sROE(U) = 4.24% - 2.12% = 2.12%. (U’s is zero.) (More...) 15 - 19 For leverage to be positive (increase expected ROE), BEP must be > kd. If kd > BEP, the cost of leveraging will be higher than the inherent profitability of the assets, so the use of financial leverage will depress net income and ROE. In the example, E(BEP) = 15% while interest rate = 12%, so leveraging “works.” 15 - 20 Capital Structure Theory MM theory Zero taxes Corporate taxes Corporate and personal taxes Trade-off theory Signaling theory Debt financing as a managerial constraint 15 - 21 MM Theory: Zero Taxes MM prove, under a very restrictive set of assumptions, that a firm’s value is unaffected by its financing mix. Therefore, capital structure is irrelevant. Any increase in ROE resulting from financial leverage is exactly offset by the increase in risk. 15 - 22 MM Theory: Corporate Taxes Corporate tax laws favor debt financing over equity financing. With corporate taxes, the benefits of financial leverage exceed the risks: More EBIT goes to investors and less to taxes when leverage is used. Firms should use almost 100% debt financing to maximize value. 15 - 23 MM Theory: Corporate and Personal Taxes Personal taxes lessen the advantage of corporate debt: Corporate taxes favor debt financing. Personal taxes favor equity financing. Use of debt financing remains advantageous, but benefits are less than under only corporate taxes. Firms should still use 100% debt. 15 - 24 Trade-off Theory MM theory ignores bankruptcy (financial distress) costs, which increase as more leverage is used. At low leverage levels, tax benefits outweigh bankruptcy costs. At high levels, bankruptcy costs outweigh tax benefits. An optimal capital structure exists that balances these costs and benefits. 15 - 25 Signaling Theory MM assumed that investors and managers have the same information. But, managers often have better information. Thus, they would: Sell stock if stock is overvalued. Sell bonds if stock is undervalued. Investors understand this, so view new stock sales as a negative signal. Implications for managers? 15 - 26 Debt Financing As a Managerial Constraint One agency problem is that managers can use corporate funds for non-value maximizing purposes. The use of financial leverage: Bonds “free cash flow.” Forces discipline on managers. However, it also increases risk of financial distress. 15 - 27 Perpetual Cash Flow Example Expected EBIT = $500,000; will remain constant over time. Firm pays out all earnings as dividends (zero growth). Currently is all-equity financed. 100,000 shares outstanding. P0 = $20; T = 40%. 15 - 28 Component Cost Estimates Amount Borrowed (000) kd ks $ 0 - 15.0% 250 10.0% 15.5 500 11.0 16.5 750 13.0 18.0 1,000 16.0 20.0 If company recapitalizes, debt would be issued to repurchase stock. 15 - 29 The MM and Miller models cannot be applied here because several assumptions are violated. kd is not a constant. Bankruptcy and agency costs exist. Theory provides some valuable insights, but because of invalid assumptions, direct real-world application is questionable. 15 - 30 Sequence of Events in a Recapitalization Firm announces the recapitalization. Investors reassess their views and estimate a new equity value. New debt is issued and proceeds are used to repurchase stock at the new equilibrium price. (More...) 15 - 31 Shares Debt issued = . Bought New price/share After recapitalization firm would have more debt but fewer common shares outstanding. An analysis of several debt levels is given next. 15 - 32 D = $250, kd = 10%, ks = 15.5%. (EBIT - kdD)(1 - T) S1 = ks [$500 - 0.1($250)](0.6) = 0.155 = $1,839. V1 = S1 + D1 = $1,839 + $250 = $2,089. $2,089 P1 100 = $20.89. 15 - 33 Shares $250 = = 11.97. repurchased $20.89 Shares = n1 = 100 - 11.97 = 88.03. remaining Check on stock price: S1 $1,839 P1 = n = = $20.89. 1 88.03 Other debt levels treated similarly. 15 - 34 What is the firm’s optimal amount of debt? Debt kd ks P $250 10% 15.5% $20.89 500 11 16.5 21.18 750 13 18.0 20.92 $500,000 of debt produces the highest stock price and thus is the best of the debt levels considered. 15 - 35 Calculate EPS at debt of $0, $250K, $500K, and $750K, assuming that the firm begins at zero debt and recap- italizes to each level in a single step. Net income = NI = [EBIT - kd D](1 - T). EPS = NI/n. D NI n EPS $ 0 $300 100.00 $3.00 250 285 88.03 3.24 500 267 76.39 3.50 750 242 64.15 3.77 15 - 36 EPS continues to increase beyond the $500,000 optimal debt level. Does this mean that the optimal debt level is $750,000, or even higher? 15 - 37 Find the WACC at each debt level. D S V kd ks WACC $ 0 $2,000 $2,000 -- 15.0% 15.0% 250 1,839 2,089 10% 15.5 14.4 500 1,618 2,118 11.0 16.5 14.2 750 1,342 2,092 13.0 18.0 14.3 e.g. D = $250: WACC = ($250/$2,089)(10%)(0.6) + ($1,839/$2,089)(15.5%) = 14.4%. 15 - 38 The WACC is minimized at D = $500,000, the same debt level that maximizes stock price. Since the value of a firm is the present value of future operating income, the lowest discount rate (WACC) leads to the highest value. 15 - 39 How would higher or lower business risk affect the optimal capital structure? At any debt level, the firm’s probability of financial distress would be higher. Both kd and ks would rise faster than before. The end result would be an optimal capital structure with less debt. Lower business risk would have the opposite effect. 15 - 40 Is it possible to do an analysis exactly like the one above for most firms? No. The analysis above was based on the assumption of zero growth, and most firms do not fit this category. Further, it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to estimate ks with any confidence. 15 - 41 What type of analysis should firms conduct to help find their optimal, or target, capital structure? Financial forecasting models can help show how capital structure changes are likely to affect stock prices, coverage ratios, and so on. (More...) 15 - 42 Forecasting models can generate results under various scenarios, but the financial manager must specify appropriate input values, interpret the output, and eventually decide on a target capital structure. In the end, capital structure decision will be based on a combination of analysis and judgment. 15 - 43 What other factors would managers consider when setting the target capital structure? Debt ratios of other firms in the industry. Pro forma coverage ratios at different capital structures under different economic scenarios. Lender and rating agency attitudes (impact on bond ratings). 15 - 44 Reserve borrowing capacity. Effects on control. Type of assets: Are they tangible, and hence suitable as collateral? Tax rates.