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The Impact of 3G & 4G Wireless Technology On Carriers' Network
Development Strategies
Description: The evolution of 2G, 3G, and 4G mobile telecommunications technologies has been researched and
written about ad infinitum. More recently, the topic of WiMAX, a particular 4G technology which
promises to deliver 70 Mb/s data speeds over a 50 km radius, has been the focus of much attention
and hype.
Many telecom analysts had come to the conclusion that 4G was just a distraction from making 3G
work until the IEEE approved the 802.16e standard for mobile WiMAX in December 2005.
Subsequently, the WiMAX Forum announced the first certified fixed WiMAX (802.16d or 802.16-
2004) equipment in January 2006.
With this new found credibility, manufacturers and network operators are looking again at the
benefits promised by 4G technologies and they are starting to invest serious time and effort in
developing fixed and mobile products which should be commercialized within the next three years.
The report addresses the following key issues:
- What are the dynamics between 3G & 4G - competing or complimentary?
- What are the standards and regulatory issues in 4G?
- Which manufacturers are leading 4G development?
- How are carriers approaching the 4G issue at a strategic level?
- What would be the impact of 4G on networks, in terms of bandwidth requirements, under
different penetration scenarios?
Thus, the overall purpose of this report is to give the reader some fresh perspectives on the issue
of 4G by looking at this technology, not as an isolated phenomenon, but as part of an ongoing
technological evolution and to provide some ground-breaking analysis in terms of average user
bandwidth demand, as well as the usual measurements of subscribers, penetration rates,
installations, and equipment sales.
The Impact of 3G & 4G Wireless Technology on Carriers' Network Development Strategies,
concludes that WiMAX will have a significant role to play in the evolution of mobile networks. A
survey of manufacturers and network operators indicates that they are making plans to incorporate
4G technology as a value-adding adjunct to existing mobile infrastructure and services.
"WiMAX has received a lot of negative publicity recently" says Julian Rawle, Managing Partner, "but
when you look beyond the hype and anti-hype, there is a viable business case for the fixed
standard and maybe also for the mobile standard."
Instead of characterizing the evolution of 3G and 4G mobile technologies as a battle to the death
between species, the report highlights the potential for complementarity between the various
technologies which reside under the 3G and 4G "umbrellas". Pioneer's Managing Partner, Howard
Kidorf, commented "In modeling scenarios for 4G development, we found that accelerated growth
in demand for 4G stimulates interest in broadband wireless applications which also has a beneficial
impact on demand for 3G."
Nevertheless, Pioneer acknowledges that the future of 4G technology is by no means certain. More
investment in R&D is required, the issue of global spectrum harmonization is unresolved, and
equipment certification has only recently begun.
Pioneer's report segments the potential WiMAX market into "fixed wireless backhaul" and "mobile".
It provides forecasts to 2010 of subscriber numbers, penetration rates, and base station
installations across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific for 2G, 3G, and 4G mobile technologies.
The value of WiMAX equipment in the backhaul market is forecast and an innovative approach is
used to forecast mobile demand in terms of bandwidth usage.
The conclusion from these forecasts is that WiMAX will establish market share over the next few
years at a significant growth rate but will not become the dominant mobile technology any time
soon.
This report should be of interest to:
- Fixed network operators
- Wireless network operators
- Wireless Internet Service Providers
- Equipment suppliers
- Component suppliers
- Venture Capital funds
Report Scope & Structure
Mobile telecom technologies covered in this report: GSM; GPRS; EDGE; HSCSD; UMTS / WCDMA;
CDMA EV-DO; HSDPA; FLASH-OFDM; WiMAX; Wi-Fi; FLO
Geographic regions covered in this report are: North America; Europe; Asia Pacific
- Chapter 1 – Executive Summary provides a synopsis of the key data points, analysis, and
conclusions from all sections of the report.
- Chapter 2 – Introduction describes the purpose and scope of the report and provides a top-level
explanation of the methodologies used.
- Chapter 3 - Evolution of Mobile Technologies describes how mobile telecom technologies have
evolved and then looks in detail at the attributes of 3G and 4G wireless technologies. This
information is then used to provide a comparative analysis of both technical capabilities and cost.
- Chapter 4 - Market Dynamics looks at existing 3G network deployments, assesses 3G's current
market share, and describes the challenges facing 3G in becoming the mainstream mobile
technology of choice. This chapter then goes on to look at the status of 4G wireless technology
development including applications in backhaul and access. Finally, the prospects for future
deployment of 3G and 4G wireless technologies are considered.
- Chapter 5 - Major 4G Initiatives provides detail on the manufacturers and service providers which
are leading the development of 4G technologies, highlighting key initiatives, global and regional
strategic trends, and current developments.
- Chapter 6 - Technology Penetration and Bandwidth Demand Analysis provides Pioneer's regional
forecasts for fixed WiMAX in the mobile backhaul market, and scenario analysis of potential
bandwidth demand for mobile WiMAX.
- Chapter 7 – Conclusions summarises key conclusions drawn from analysis in all preceding
chapters.
Contents: Chapter 1 – Executive Summary
- 1.1Technological Comparison
- 1.2Comparative Technology Costs
- 1.33G Market Overview
1.3.1Lack of Demand
1.3.2Other Challenges
- 1.44G Market Overview
1.4.1Demand for High-Speed Multimedia Services
1.4.2Fixed-Mobile Convergence
1.4.3Spectrum Issues
1.4.4Standards & Certification Issues
1.4.5 Technological Challenges
1.4.6 Alternative Applications for 4G
- 1.5 Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G
1.5.1 Market Share Forecasts
1.5.2 Manufacturer Strategies
1.5.3 Network Operator Strategies
1.5.4 Global Spectrum Harmonisation
- 1.6 Forecasts
1.6.1 Mobile Markets
1.6.2 Demand for 2G, 3G, & 4G (Fixed & Mobile)
Chapter 2 – Introduction & Methodology
- 2.1 Purpose of the Report
- 2.2 Report Scope
2.2.1 Technologies Covered
2.2.2 Geographic Coverage
2.2.3 Companies Mentioned in this Report
2.2.4 Report Structure
- 2.3 Methodology
2.3.1 Data Sources
2.3.2 Analysis
2.3.4 Presentation of Results
Chapter 3 – Technology Comparison
- 3.1 Evolution of Mobile Technologies
3.1.1 First Generation (1G) Mobile Technologies
3.1.2 Second Generation (2G) Mobile Technologies
3.1.3 Second Generation Enhanced (2.5G)
3.1.4 Third Generation (3G)
3.1.5 Fourth Generation (4G)
- 3.2 3G Wireless Technologies in Detail
3.2.1 Standards Bodies
3.2.2 Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS)
3.2.3 High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA)
3.2.4 CDMA EV-DO
- 3 4G Wireless Technologies in Detail
3.3.1 Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM)
3.3.2 WiMAX
3.3.3 WiBro
3.3.4 Wi-Fi
3.3.5 FLO Qualcomm
- 3.4 Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies
3.4.1 Technological Parameters
3.4.2 Cost Comparison
Chapter 4 – Market Dynamics
- 4.1 3G Wireless Technology Deployment & Current Penetration
4.1.1 UMTS
4.1.2 HSDPA
4.1.3 CDMA EV-DO
- 4.2 Challenges Facing 3G Wireless Technology
4.2.1 High Costs
4.2.2 Uncertain Demand
4.2.3 Firmly entrenched 2G networks
4.2.4 Pressure from 4G / advanced networks
4.2.5 Technological challenges
4.2.6 Slow demand growth
- 4.3 4G Wireless Technology Development Status
4.3.1 4G Development Drivers
4.3.2 4G Development Challenges
4.3.3 Standards Update
- 4.4 WiMAX in Broadband Wireless Systems
4.4.1 WiMAX in Fixed Broadband Wireless Access
4.4.2 WiMAX in Wi-Fi Backhaul
- 4.5 Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G Wireless Technologies
4.5.1 Quantitative Methodology & Assumptions
4.5.2 North America
4.5.3 Europe
4.5.4 Asia Pacific
Chapter 5 – Major 4G Initiatives
- 5.1 Supply Side Developments – Manufacturers' Initiatives
5.1.1 Classification of WiMAX Equipment Manufacturers
5.1.2 Significant Manufacturer-Led Initiatives
- 5.2 Demand Side Developments – Global Trends
5.2.1 Complemetarity vs. Competitivity
5.2.2 Different Applications in Different Markets
5.2.3 Pre-Commercialisation Trials
- 5.3 Current Developments
5.3.1 WiMAX
5.3.2 FLASH-OFDM & Qualcomm FLO
- 5.4 3G/4G Strategic Trends in North America
5.4.1 Mobile Operators
5.4.2 Wireless Internet Service Providers
5.4.3 Wireline Operators
5.4.4 Strategic Drivers
- 5.5 3G/4G Strategic Trends in Europe
5.5.1 Mobile Operators
5.5.2 WISPs & Wireline Operators
5.5.3 New Entrants
5.5.4 Strategic Drivers
- 5.6 3G/4G Strategic Trends in Asia Pacific
5.6.1. Regional Heterogeneity
5.6.2 OEM Leadership
5.6.3 Market Segmentation
5.6.4 Strategic Drivers
- 5.7 Conclusions
5.7.1 Regional Similarities & Differences
5.7.2 Global Spectrum Harmonisation
5.7.3 Market Segmentation
5.7.4 Pioneer's Prediction
Chapter 6 – Technology Penetration and Bandwidth Demand Analysis
- 6.1 Fixed WiMAX as Backhaul Technology in Mobile Networks: Market Opportunity Forecast
6.1.1 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Forecast Model Techniques
6.1.2 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Forecast Model Methodology and Assumptions
6.1.3 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Market Opportunity
- 6.2 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Scenario Analysis by Region
6.2.1 North America
6.2.3 Asia Pacific
- 6.3 Bandwidth Demand Analysis: Network Requirements
6.3.1 Bandwidth Demand Forecast Model Methodology and Assumptions
6.3.2 Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in North America
6.3.3 Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in Europe
6.3.4 Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in Asia Pacific
Chapter 7 – Conclusions
- 7.1 Comparative Technology Costs
- 7.2 4G Network Development Drivers & Constraints
7.2.1 Drivers
7.2.2 Constraints
- 7.3 3G Network Development Drivers & Constraints
- 7.4 Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G
7.4.1 Global Themes
7.4.2 Regional Themes
- 7.5 Forecasts
APPENDIX 1 – Assumed Mobile Subscriber Usage Patterns
Exhibit 1.1: Technological Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies
Exhibit 1.2: Worldwide Growth of 3G UMTS Subscribers
Exhibit 1.3: Global Frequency Bands for WiMAX Deployment
Exhibit 1.4: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Asia Pacific across Scenarios
Exhibit 1.5: Regional Mobile Subscriber Forecast (Millions)
Exhibit 1.6: Forecast BTS Installations in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific 2005-10
Exhibit 1.7: Comparison of Fixed WiMAX growth in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific under
Different Growth Scenarios
Exhibit 1.8: Forecast North American 4G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 1.9: Total European 4G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 1.10: Total Asia Pacific 4G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 2.1: Mobile Telecom Technologies Covered in this Report
Exhibit 2.2: Countries included in Regional Analysis
Exhibit 2.3: Companies Mentioned in this Report
Exhibit 2.4: Forecast Data Available from this Report
Exhibit 3.1: Evolution of Wireless Technology
Exhibit 3.2: UMTS Architecture 3.7
Exhibit 3.3: HSDPA Architecture
Exhibit 3.4: CDMA 1xEV-DO Architecture
Exhibit 3.5: Frequency Division Multiplexing
Exhibit 3.6: Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing
Exhibit 3.7: WiMAX Network
Exhibit 3.8: IEEE 802.11 Specifications
Exhibit 3.9: Typical Wi-Fi Network
Exhibit 3.10: FLO Network Architecture
Exhibit 3.11: Technological Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies
Exhibit 4.1: Worldwide Growth of UMTS Subscribers
Exhibit 4.2: Regional Breakdown of UMTS Subscribers (December 2004)
Exhibit 4.3: UMTS Network Status – Deployed
Exhibit 4.4: HSDPA Network Status (Planned/Deployment underway)
Exhibit 4.5: Worldwide Growth of CDMA EV-DO Subscribers
Exhibit 4.6: Regional Breakdown of CDMA (2000 1x and EV-DO) Subscribers (December 2004)
Exhibit 4.7: CDMA EV-DO Network Status
Exhibit 4.8: Global Frequency Bands for WiMAX Deployment
Exhibit 4.9: Evolution of WiMAX Standards and Applications
Exhibit 4.10: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America
Exhibit 4.11: Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America
Exhibit 4.12 Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in North America across
Scenarios
Exhibit 4.13: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe
Exhibit 4.14: Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe
Exhibit 4.15: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Europe across Scenarios
Exhibit 4.16: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific
Exhibit 4.17: Penetration of 4G technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific
Exhibit 4.18: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Asia Pacific across
Scenarios
Exhibit 5.1: Classification of Equipment Manufacturers
Exhibit 5.2: WiMAX Forum Certified Products
Exhibit 6.1: Gompertz Curve
Exhibit 6.2: Fisher-Pry Model S-Curve
Exhibit 6.3: Normal Distribution Curve & Equation
Exhibit 6.4: Methodology for Estimation of Mobile Subscribers
Exhibit 6.5: Methodology for Estimation of BTS Units
Exhibit 6.6: Trends in Average BTS cost (per unit) 2006-10
Exhibit 6.7: Forecast Combined Mobile Subscriber Population in North America, Europe, & Asia
Pacific 2004-10
Exhibit 6.8: Forecast Mobile Subscriber Penetration Rate in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific
2004-10
Exhibit 6.9: Regional Mobile Subscriber Forecast (Millions)
Exhibit 6.10: Forecast BTS Installations in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific 2005-10
Exhibit 6.11: WiMAX Penetration Scenarios in North America
Exhibit 6.12: WiMAX BTS Installations in North America
Exhibit 6.13: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in North America
Exhibit 6.14: WiMAX Penetration in Europe
Exhibit 6.15: WiMAX BTS Installations in Europe
Exhibit 6.16: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in Europe
Exhibit 6.17: WiMAX Penetration in Asia Pacific
Exhibit 6.18: WiMAX BTS Installations in Asia Pacific
Exhibit 6.19: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in Asia Pacific
Exhibit 6.20: Comparison of WiMAX growth in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific under
Different Growth Scenarios
Exhibit 6.21: Methodology for Estimation of Mobile Subscribers by Technology
Exhibit 6.22: Optimal Mobile Application Bandwidth Requirements
Exhibit 6.23: Optimal Bandwidth for 'Other' Future Applications
Exhibit 6.24: Scenario Analysis of Forecast 4G Penetration Rates
Exhibit 6.25: Assumed Usage Patterns for 2G, 3G, & 4G Mobile Subscribers
Exhibit 6.26: Estimation of Total Bandwidth Requirement of an Average Subscriber
Exhibit 6.27: Forecast Penetration of 2G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North
America
Exhibit 6.28: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North
America
Exhibit 6.29: Forecast Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North
America
Exhibit 6.30: North American 2G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.31: North American 3G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.32: North American 4G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.33: Forecast North American 2G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.34: Forecast North American 3G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.35: Forecast North American 4G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.37: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe
Exhibit 6.38: Forecast Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe
Exhibit 6.39: European 2G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.40: European 3G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.41: European 4G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.42: Forecast European 2G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.43: Forecast European 3G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.44: Total European 4G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.45: Forecast Penetration of 2G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia
Pacific
Exhibit 6.46: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia
Pacific
Exhibit 6.47: Forecast Penetration of 4G technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific
Exhibit 6.48: Asia Pacific 2G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.49: Asia Pacific 3G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.50: Asia Pacific 4G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.51: Total Asia Pacific 2G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.52: Total Asia Pacific 3G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.53: Total Asia Pacific 4G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.54: Pioneer Forecast of Mobile Bandwidth Demand by Region and Technology 2005-10
(Moderate Growth Scenario)
Exhibit 6.55: Pioneer Forecast Mobile Technology Bandwidth Market Shares by Region in 2010
(Moderate Growth Scenario)
Exhibit 6.56: Pioneer Forecast Bandwidth Demand CAGR's by Technology and Region 2005-10
(Moderate Growth Scenario)
Exhibit A1.1: Usage Patterns for 2G Subscribers
Exhibit A1.2: Usage Patterns for 3G Subscribers
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